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Professor Jørgen Randers on what our future will look like

10. mai 2012 - Av Jørgen Randers

Jorgen Randers is professor of climate strategy at the Norwegian Business School, where he works on climate issues and scenario analysis. He lectures internationally on sustainable development, and especially climate, within and outs

Jorgen Randers is non-executive member of a number of corporate boards in Norway, including the multinational Tomra ASA. He also sits on the “sustainability councils” of British Telecom in the UK and The Dow Chemical Company in the US. Recently he chaired the Commission on Low Greenhouse Gas Emissions who reported in 2006 to the Norwegian cabinet on how Norway can cut is climate gas emissions by two thirds by 2050. 

He was formerly President of the Norwegian School of Management 1981 – 89, and Deputy Director General of WWF International (World Wide Fund for Nature) in Switzerland 1994 – 99. 

He has authored a number of books and scientific papers, including “The Limits to Growth” (1972) and “Limits to Growth – The 30 Year Update” (2004) .

Complete CV

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And that it’s not necessarily the worms, or the bacteria, or the mycelia or the minerals as individual components per se that are the discreet raison d’etre for these profound results, but the staggering interconnections transmitting the effects which are produced via their relationships? That perhaps the very ‘foundations’ of our civilisation may be in question, or should be? That perhaps what we thought were the ‘foundations’ of our civilisation are not foundations at all? That perhaps they are pillars which sit on foundations and that those foundations are in fact embedded in nature as nature?What I’m alluding to here is that although some of these views may be construed as ‘cop outs’, that it may be useful to consider that our civilisation has pillars or perhaps even foundations that have ever been unseen, right under our skyward pointing noses. That if indeed we do need to change the shape of our thoughts (i.e. resulting in more harmonic, constructive, life-promoting designs), and that changing them after the fact would be fairly ineffective, then not doing it and saying we did would be equally ineffective, wouldn’t it?What is the current data from the global ‘cop out-ometer (i.e. the ‘response ability’ of the planet in general)? Do we have one? If we did, would the arrow be leaning toward a high level of acceptance and effective common sense responses to challenges, or would it lean more toward ‘copping out’? (Please Note: Observations of the insane by the insane do not in my view constitute valid independent assessments (Insert Heisenberg’s Uncertainty Prinicple here ? ). I appreciate that my question is perhaps unrealistic in practice. For present purposes I hope that it is treated as illustrative and perhaps at best rhetorical). I would bet everything on my observation that the arrow on the global ‘cop out-ometer’ would be almost at the extreme level of ‘copping-out’. I also know, from my own experience that there is ‘no waste in nature’. It has also been my observation that so far, ‘we’ have consistently designed in a manner that is ‘exclusive’ (usually a pretty good indicator of a ‘linear’ mindset/approach). If it is somewhere near true that much of the population are in ‘cop out’ mode, are we going to continue our ‘exclusive’ design modalities under the assumption that our ‘cop-outers’ have nothing of value to contribute and are not a ‘resource’? Or worse…that we will not accept their contributions because they are not contributing in a manner that is ‘proper’ or ‘appropriate’ or ‘convivial’ or convenient'? Or can we design so that they can be included as a resource?I'm a great believer in the power of stories, and ever since I was a child I wondered why all the grown-ups' weren't living, or at least building our world in accord with our stories (i.e. then mostly ‘fairy stories’). But now that I'm a bit older and perhaps a tad more cynical (which unfortunately seems to have become the new definition for realistic'), I see that perhaps we have been living our stories .we just went straight for the happily ever after’ bits? :-)It is important to me that I feel that I can contribute to a conversation in a manner that to me feels constructive. In this case, the conversation has already begun to be distilled into a document. And I feel strongly about contributing to it and that of all the documents and conversations I have seen that this is the most practical, realistic and potential. ‘Naturally’ (perhaps), it is also important that my contributions would also need to be perceived as constructive by other contributors. So clearly the dynamic of the challenges we face are fractal; they exist on the micro as they do on the macro and are very similar indeed…I believe that unless we design to include ‘human nature’ as it is and ‘humans’ nature AS IT IS and nature as nature, then we will continue struggling to join the dots, whilst missing the point…not to mention excluding what may prove to be one of our most valuable and most prevalent resources….denial.I’m also a believer in working with what we’ve got…rather than what I wish was there…and this document by far meets those parameters better than any other I’ve seen…So in my first attempt at addressing the document itself and in an attempt to begin targeting my contributions hopefully constructively, I would like clarify the intended focus/purpose of the document as a document, by asking the following:1) Is this intended to be a mandate to focus a gathering of ‘doers’ regardless of the direction ‘crisis perception/acceptance’ of the rest of the world? The main point of this paper is to detail what the level of mobilisation and action required to stop climate change could look like and to begin the process of refining such a plan. (page 2)2) Or is it intended to be sold' to the rest of the world in the hope that we will begin implementing within the specified time-frames? We are therefore writing this paper to encourage people to plan for such a One Degree War sooner rather than later. (Page 4)3) Or is it a document that simply needs to be done so that it can be filed away and we can say we tried our best, walk away feeling superior and hope that when society perceives a crisis' that in our last minute panic we will out of the myriad other action plans' filed away, reach for this one? Therefore society will, when the crisis hits and the scale of the threat is understood, demand a plan to achieve no more than 1 degree of warming. (Page 4)4) Or is it all of the above?Hoping that if nothing else, at this seemingly early stage, my contribution helps to get the porridge bubbling :-)CheersStephen G

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