I graduated from the University of Oslo in 1969 as the first student to complete the new program in Cybernetics, which then was a specialization in the department of physics, probably because of the reliance on electronics in communication and control systems. The computers at that time were mostly analogue, not digital.
After graduation I joined BI which then was a very small business school, but with a keen interest in applying quantitative methods in business administration. This gave me the opportunity to apply for a Ford Foundation scholarship to pursue Ph.D. in the US, which brought me to University of California where I wrote a thesis on linguistic models of organizations based on fuzzy set theory.
Back at BI, I taught statistics and operations research, especially decision theory, and was eventually promoted to professor. I served several times as chair of my department, and started the development of BIs doktoral program where I was dean from 1995 to 2000. I have since 2015 been Professor Emeritus.
Research areas
My main area is the development and application of Multi Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA), and my focus is ethical foundations of decision-making, the role of emotion and rationality in decision making, as well as the structuring of organizational values.I am now working with climate modelling in BI's Centre for Environmental Strategy.
This paper argues that the virtue of righteousness sustained by raw emotions can explain the apparent deadlock of the climate change debate, and proposes virtues that are more conducive to consequential action. The expectation that operational researchers are virtuous is based on an honorable tradition. Virtues are even more important now, especially in the context of climate change where a public debate is unfolding; in which deniers and believers accuse each other of lack of virtue. Scientists are in the midst of the debate whether they like it or not. Rational multi-criteria decision processes require deliberation involving values infused by temperate emotions, not to be caught up by strong emotions from righteous affect. They also require an instrumentality directed at practical engagement with physical reality. The origin of all values is raw affects in the emotional centers of our ancestral brains, which power the virtues that make us righteous, as well as the tempered qualitative feelings that are necessary for sound decision-making. Different communities nurture different self-reinforcing righteous positions, explaining why a meaningful climate change debate often gets side-tracked. Scientists are not exempt from righteousness but are in a position to dampen its effect by nurturing virtues that promote good science when they deal with climate related issues. In this article we identify several virtues that we believe are conducive for scientists’ work with mitigation and adaption. For example is important to be humble and avoiding hubris in geoengineering. And with regards to recovery and restoration of nature it is important to be open and accommodative with ecological sensitivity, care and patience. In general, work with mitigation and adaption requires respect for people, respect for science, accuracy and concern. A scientist should also have the courage to speak out about facts and thereby contribute to a more temperate and informed public debate. Thus courage and factualism are also important virtues.
Randers, Jørgen; Göluke, Ulrich, Wenstøp, Fred & Wenstøp, Søren (2016)
A user-friendly earth system model of low complexity: the ESCIMO system dynamics model of global warming towards 2100
We have made a simple system dynamics model, ESCIMO (Earth System Climate Interpretable Model), which runs on a desktop computer in seconds and is able to reproduce the main output from more complex climate models. ESCIMO represents the main causal mechanisms at work in the Earth system and is able to reproduce the broad outline of climate history from 1850 to 2015. We have run many simulations with ESCIMO to 2100 and beyond. In this paper we present the effects of introducing in 2015 six possible global policy interventions that cost around USD 1000 billion per year – around 1 % of world GDP. We tentatively conclude (a) that these policy interventions can at most reduce the global mean surface temperature – GMST – by up to 0.5 °C in 2050 and up to 1.0 °C in 2100 relative to no intervention. The exception is injection of aerosols into the stratosphere, which can reduce the GMST by more than 1.0 °C in a decade but creates other serious problems. We also conclude (b) that relatively cheap human intervention can keep global warming in this century below +2 °C relative to preindustrial times. Finally, we conclude (c) that run-away warming is unlikely to occur in this century but is likely to occur in the longer run. The ensuing warming is slow, however. In ESCIMO, it takes several hundred years to lift the GMST to +3 °C above preindustrial times through gradual self-reinforcing melting of the permafrost.
Wenstøp, Fred (2016)
Flermålsanalyse som alternativ til nyttekostnadsanalyse
Investeringsprosjekter og miljøkonsekvenser, , s. 208-223.
Ditlev-Simonsen, Caroline Dale & Wenstøp, Fred (2016)
Attitudes towards ethical pension management among Norwegians
Purpose This study investigates perceptions of the relative importance of different stakeholders (owners, employees, customers, NGOs and governmental authorities) as agents motivating managers to engage in CSR. The purpose was to determine which stakeholders are viewed as key motivators and which the respondents think ought to be key stakeholders. Design/methodology/approach This is an empirical study. Three stakeholder groups – Corporate leaders, MSc business students and NGOs – were consulted through a paper survey (N=264). Findings The findings reveal that the three stakeholder groups roughly agree that owners are the main motivators for managers to pursue CSR, followed by customers, governments, employees and NGOs, in that order. We then turned from perceptions of how things are to opinions about how things ought to be, asking who should be the main motivator. In this case, customers moved up to first place, followed by employees, owners, government and NGOs. Age, but not gender, was a significant variable. The older the respondents, the smaller the discrepancy between perceptions of what is and opinions about what ought to be. Research limitations/implications This study was conducted in Norway and generalization is therefore limited. By replicating the study in other countries cultural differences can be investigated. Practical and social implications The findings are applicable for evaluating different avenues for understanding and influencing managerial and stakeholder CSR behaviour. Originality/value Several studies have concluded that stakeholders are of key importance in the CSR setting. However, few studies so far have compared the perceived relative “power” held by stakeholders. This type of knowledge can provide a key to understanding the development of CSR
Wenstøp, Fred Erling (2012)
A value structured approach to conflicts in environmental management
The paper addresses the question of how Operations Research ought to handle decision problems that involve value conflicts. First, we note that early OR was essentially value free with a mechanistic systems perspective, although some voiced concern that an analyst should not detach herself from the consequences of her work. Then we propose a value conflict scale, which we use to assess the conflict levels in a small sample of OR applications. We then turn to value identification. In practise, organizational value statements include many kinds of values, and we discuss how values can be sorted out according to ethical categories, which helps in identifying consequentialistic decision criteria. The next question is how values can be enacted in a decision process. We review findings in neuroscience, which indicate that intra-personal decision-making takes place in a field of tension between deliberation and affect, the implication being that low level conflicts leave decision-makers too coldly rational and therefore want infusion of emotion, while emotions in high-level conflicts need to be tempered. Emotions can be tempered through two strategies: focus on consequences rather than virtues and rules, and discourse ethics, which are the subjects of the two last parts. We conclude by proposing five ethical rules for OR analysis of value conflicts. An analyst should: Not regard herself as being detached from the decision that are made; be conscious that good decision-making requires temperate emotions that balance affect and deliberation; promote focus on consequences; promote the view that stakeholders have intrinsic value, they should not be treated instrumentally; encourage fair processes to identify stakeholder values.
Wenstøp, Fred & Seip, Knut L. (2009)
Verdier og valg : verdibasert beslutningsanalyse i praksis
Universitetsforlaget
Seip, Knut L. & Wenstøp, Fred (2006)
A Primer on Environmental Decision-Making: An Integrative Quantitative Approach
Springer
Wenstøp, Fred (2006)
Some viewpoints on emotion, consequentialism and multicriteria decision making
Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis, 13(4) , s. 191-198.
Wenstøp, Fred (2006)
Mindsets, rationality and emotion in Multi-criteria Decision Analysis
Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis, 13(4) , s. 161-172.
Wenstøp, Fred (2005)
Mindsets, rationality and emotion in Multi-criteria Decision Analysis
Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis, 13(4) , s. 161-172.
This paper discusses the paradigm of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA), and relates it to other disciplines. It concludes that MCDA needs a larger, not smaller, emphasis on values and subjectivity to increase rationality in decision-making. The paper bases the argument on a conciliation of ethics, philosophy, neuro-psychology and management paradigms. It observes that the MCDA ?mindset? relates to consequentialism, as opposed to virtue ethics and rule based ethics. Virtues and rules play an important role in practical decision-making, however. Findings in neuro-psychology show that reliable decision-making requires emotions. Elicitation of emotions is therefore required in MCDA value trade-off processes. This leads to a concept of emotional rationality, which defines rationality as a four-dimensional concept that includes well-founded values and breaks radically with common notions of rationality. Virtues do not easily lend themselves to value trade-off, but questions of virtue usually creates strong social emotions, as opposed to the feebler global emotions that may arise in connection conventional trade-off of end values. The conclusion is that MCDA should not be shy of subjectivity and emotion, but instead put more emphasis on it to ncrease rationality. A part of this challenge is how to deal with questions of virtue in decisionmaking.
Wenstøp, Fred (2005)
Some viewpoints on emotion, consequentialism and multicriteria decision making
Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis, 13(4) , s. 191-198.
This rejoinder discusses philosophical viewpoints on MCDA, especially concerning the role of emotion. Central issues are: Should MCDA put more emphasis on subjectivity? What is the relation between the decision-maker?s mindset and emotions? Can one make the analysis more rational by internalizing emotions associated with virtues through extending the traditional set of decision-criteria? How can belief and values be separated? Finally, what is a suitable definition of rationality?
Kvålshaugen, Ragnhild; Løwendahl, Bente R. & Wenstøp, Fred (2003)
Fra beslutning til gjennomføring
Grunnbok i strategi, , s. 339-370.
Lunnan, Randi; Løwendahl, Bente R. & Wenstøp, Fred (2002)
Ekstern Analyse
Grunnbok i Strategi,
Magnus, Per & Wenstøp, Fred (2001)
Value focused rationality in AIDS policy
Health Policy, 57, s. 57-72.
Wenstøp, Fred; Wenstøp, Fred & Seip, Knut L. (2001)
Legitimacy and Quality of Multi-Criteria Environmental Policy Analysis: A Meta Analysis of Five MCE Studies in Norway
Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis, 10, s. 53-64.
Wenstøp, Fred; Carlsen, Arne J., Beinat, E. & Nijkamp, P. (1998)
Using Decision Panels to Evaluate Hydropower Development Projects
Multi Criteria Evaluation in Land Use Management,
Bakken, Bent Erik; Wenstøp, Fred Erling & Midtun, Atle (1996)
Rational, emotional and normfollowing actors and liberal free trade in the Norwegian electricity market
Human Systems Management, 15(3)
Strand, Jon; Carlsen, Arne & Wenstøp, Fred (1993)
Implicit Environmental Costs in Hydroelectric Development: An Analysis of the Norwegian Master Plan for Water Resources
The ranking of hydropower projects under the Norwegian Master Plan for Water Resources is used to derive implicit government preferences for a number of environmental attributes described by ordinal scores for each project. We apply ordinal logistic regression to the ranks using the scores of the attributes as explanatory variables. As expected, we find that higher negative scores are generally associated with greater implicit willingness to pay to avoid the environmental damage tied to the attribute, caused by hydropower development. We derive total (ordinary economic and implicit environmental) costs for each project and find that environmental costs per capacity unit generally are lower than economic costs for projects ranked for early exploitation and higher for projects ranked for later development. Our derived implicit long-run marginal cost curve for Norwegian hydropower development is generally upward sloping, but not uniformly so.
Featured papers on operational research and ethics
EURO Journal on Decision Processes [Kronikk]
Wenstøp, Fred Erling & Wenstøp, Søren Henrik (2014)
Operational Research Virtues in the Face of Climate Change
[Conference Lecture]. Event
Wenstøp, Fred Erling & Wenstøp, Søren Henrik (2014)
LESSONS FROM MODELING CLIMATE CHANGE WITH SYSTEM DYNAMICS
[Conference Lecture]. Event
Wenstøp, Fred Erling & Ditlev-Simonsen, Caroline Dale (2014)
Hva tror de ansatte skal til for motivere til å sykle til og fra jobb?
[Professional Article]. Magma forskning og viten, (3) , s. 70-82.
Wenstøp, Fred Erling (2013)
Experience from modeling climate change
[Conference Lecture]. Event
Abstract
An enormous effort is going on world-wide on modeling consequences of fossil fuel use. The effort is orchestrated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which is due to release their 5th report in the fall of 2013. However, a leaked version of a draft report is already available on Internet . It provides a basis for a current effort at the Center for Climate Strategy at NBS led by Jørgen Randers to build a dynamic simulation model of the feedback loops involved in climate change. Although there are already a large number of climate models, only a handful uses System Dynamics as modeling tool. This presentation will discuss experiences with building a model of the earth’s energy budget
Wenstøp, Fred Erling & Løwendahl, Bente R. (2013)
Skriv gode oppgaver
[Textbook]. Cappelen Damm Akademisk
Wenstøp, Fred Erling & Wenstøp, Søren Henrik (2013)
Abstract
Science says that threatening climate change requires action now, but meaningful actions emerge only slowly. Deniers eschew actions, and believers in climate change sometimes support detrimental policies. The reason is that climate change is a new kind of challenge; a future threat we cannot see with consequences we cannot easily predict. Meaningful action requires a way of thinking, which can deal with models. But our righteous affective brain intervenes, which bases actions on “what you see is all there is”. This poses a fundamental challenge for operations research.
Wenstøp, Fred Erling & Koppang, Haavard (2010)
The Janus face of moral math
[Conference Lecture]. Event
Wenstøp, Fred Erling (2010)
Ethical platforms
[Conference Lecture]. Event
Wenstøp, Fred & Myrmel, Arild (2006)
Structuring organizational value statements
[Professional Article]. Management Research News (MRN), 29(11) , s. 673-683.
Purpose ? The purpose is to propose a structure for corporate value statements, which is useful as an underlying organizing principle that makes them more comprehensible, and at the same time identifies values that can serve as criteria for strategic decision-making. Design/methodology/approach ? The main approach is theoretical development of value categories. It is followed up by an empirical investigation of value statements on corporate web pages to see if the proposed principles are applicable. Findings ? The paper proposes a comprehensive value system that consists of three main value categories juxtaposed on the same level: Core values prescribe the attitude and character of the organization. They are often found in sections on code of conduct, values statement, or credo. Protected values are protected through rules, standards and certificates. They are mostly found in sections concerning health, environment and safety. Created values are the values that stakeholders, including the shareholders, expect in return for their contributions to the firm. They are often found in sections on objectives and always in the annual report. Research limitations/implications ? The empirical research is limited to companies listed on two stock exchanges. Further research should include other types of organizations. Practical implications ? It is hoped that the proposed value system can contribute to making corporate value statements more comprehensible and useful for strategic decision-making. Originality/value ? It is believed to be a new idea to propose a holistic value system for value communication that can incorporate all values.
Wenstøp, Fred (2003)
Statistikk og dataanalyse, Arbeidshefte
[Textbook]. Universitetsforlaget
Wenstøp, Fred (2003)
Statistikk og dataanalyse
[Textbook]. Universitetsforlaget
Løwendahl, Bente R. & Wenstøp, Fred (2003)
Grunnbok i strategi
[Textbook]. Damm
Løwendahl, Bente R. & Wenstøp, Fred (2002)
Grunnbok i strategi
[Textbook]. NKS Forlaget
Wenstøp, Fred (2001)
Statistikk og Datanalyse
[Textbook]. Universitetsforlaget
Wenstøp, Fred (2001)
Statistikk og datanalyse. Arbeidshefte med bruk av programvare og løsning av case
[Textbook]. Universitetsforlaget
Wenstøp, Fred (1998)
Statistikk og dataanalyse
[Textbook]. Aschehoug & Co
Wenstøp, Fred (1998)
Statistikk og dataanalyse, Arbeidshefte med bruk av programvare
