Ansattprofil

Erik Løhre

Førsteamanuensis - Institutt for ledelse og organisasjon

Biografi

Erik Løhre is an associate professor in the Department of Leadership and Organizational Behaviour at the BI Norwegian Business School. His research focuses on judgment and decision making, with several publications on topics like project estimation, uncertainty communication, and risk perception.

Publikasjoner

Løhre, Erik; Juanchich, Marie, Sirota, Miroslav, Teigen, Karl Halvor & Shepherd, Theodore G. (2019)

Climate scientists' wide prediction intervals may be more likely but are perceived to be less certain

Weather, Climate, and Society, 11(3), s. 565- 575. Doi: 10.1175/WCAS-D-18-0136.1 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

Løhre, Erik; Sobkow, Agata, Hohle, Sigrid Møyner & Teigen, Karl Halvor (2019)

Framing experts' (dis)agreements about uncertain environmental events

Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 32, s. 564- 578. Doi: 10.1002/bdm.2132

Agreements and disagreements between expert statements influence lay people's beliefs. But few studies have examined what is perceived as a disagreement. We report six experiments where people rated agreement between pairs of probabilistic statements about environmental events, attributed to two different experts or to the same expert at two different points in time. The statements differed in frame, by focusing on complementary outcomes (45% probability that smog will have negative health effects vs. 55% probability that it will not have such effects), in probability level (45% vs. 55% probability of negative effects), or in both respects. Opposite frames strengthened disagreement when combined with different probability levels. Approximate probabilities can be “framed” in yet another way by indicating reference values they are “over” or “under”. Statements that use different directional verbal terms (over vs. under 50%) indicated greater disagreement than statements with the same directional term but different probability levels (over 50% vs. over 70%). Framing and directional terms similarly affected consistency judgments when both statements were issued by the same expert at different occasions. The effect of framing on perceived agreement was significant for medium (10 and 20 percentage points) differences between probabilities, whereas the effect of directional term was stable for numerical differences up to 40 percentage points. To emphasize agreement between different estimates, they should be framed in the same way. To accentuate disagreements or changes of opinion, opposite framings should be used.

Teigen, Karl Halvor & Løhre, Erik (2017)

Expressing (un)certainty in no uncertain terms: Reply to Fox and Ülkümen

Thinking and Reasoning, 23(4), s. 492- 496. Doi: 10.1080/13546783.2017.1314965 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

Løhre, Erik & Teigen, Karl Halvor (2017)

Probabilities associated with precise and vague forecasts

Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 30(5), s. 1014- 1026. Doi: 10.1002/bdm.2021 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

Forecasts of future outcomes, such as the consequences of climate change, are given with different degrees of precision. Logically, more precise forecasts (e.g., a temperature increase of 3–4°) have a smaller probability of capturing the actual outcome than less precise forecasts (e.g., a temperature increase of 2–6°). Nevertheless, people often trust precise forecasts more than vague forecasts, perhaps because precision is associated with knowledge and expertise. In five experiments, we ask whether people expect highly confident forecasts to be associated with wider or narrower outcome ranges than less confident forecasts (Experiments 1, 2, and 5), and, conversely, whether they expect precise forecasts to be issued with higher or lower confidence than vague forecasts (Experiments 3 and 4). The results revealed two distinct ways of thinking about confidence intervals, labeled distributional (wide intervals seen as more probable than narrow intervals) and associative (wide intervals seen as more uncertain than narrow intervals). Distributional responses occurred somewhat more often in within-subjects designs, where wide and narrow prediction intervals and high and low probability estimates can be directly compared, whereas separate evaluations (in between-subjects design) suggested associative responses to be slightly more frequent. These findings are relevant for experts communicating forecasts through confidence intervals.

Løhre, Erik & Jørgensen, Magne (2016)

Numerical anchors and their strong effects on software development effort estimates

Journal of Systems and Software, 116, s. 49- 56. Doi: 10.1016/j.jss.2015.03.015

Løhre, Erik & Teigen, Karl Halvor (2016)

There is a 60% probability, but I am 70% certain: Communicative consequences of external and internal expressions of uncertainty.

Thinking and Reasoning, 22(4), s. 369- 396. Doi: 10.1080/13546783.2015.1069758

Current theories of probability recognize a distinction between external (un)certainty (frequentistic probabilities) and internal (un)certainty (degrees of belief). The present studies investigated this distinction in lay people’s judgments of probability statements formulated to suggest either an internal (“I am X% certain”) or an external (“It is X% certain” or “There is a X% probability”) interpretation. These subtle differences in wording influenced participants’ perceptions and endorsements of such statements, and their impressions of the speaker. External expressions were seen to signal more reliable task duration estimates, and a lower degree of external than internal certainty was deemed necessary to advise a course of action. In conversations about football, internal expressions were perceived as signaling more personal interest, and were expected to be on the average 10% higher than corresponding external probabilities. Finally, people who reported their outcome expectations for two major sports events let their degree of interest in these events influence their internal but not their external certainty. These results have implications for the communication of uncertainty and probability.

Teigen, Karl Halvor; Løhre, Erik & Hohle, Sigrid Møyner (2015)

Det (u)sikre og det (u)sannsynlige: Hva forskerne sier og hva de (kanskje) mener

Impuls : Tidsskrift for psykologi, 68(1), s. 33- 42.

Løhre, Erik & Teigen, Karl Halvor (2014)

How fast can you (possibly) do it, or how long will it (certainly) take? Communicating uncertain estimates of performance time

Acta Psychologica, 148, s. 63- 73. Doi: 10.1016/j.actpsy.2014.01.005

Jørgensen, Magne & Løhre, Erik (2012)

First Impressions in Software Development Effort Estimation: Easy to Create and Difficult to Neutralize

Baldassarre, Teresa; Genreo, Marcela, Mendes, Emilia & Piattini, Mario (red.). Evaluation & Assessment in Software Engineering (EASE 2012), 16th International Conference on

Løhre, Erik (2020)

Hvordan uttrykke usikkerhet med pondus?

På en benk med Einar Øverenget [Radio]

Løhre, Erik (2020)

Hvordan tar man gode valg?

Praktisk info med Jon Almaas [TV]

Teigen, Karl Halvor; Juanchich, Marie & Løhre, Erik (2021)

A “likely” quantity is a “most likely” quantity, but not as likely as we like to think

[Academic lecture]. Canadian Society for Brain, Behaviour and Cognitive Science: Annual Meeting.

Research on verbal probabilities and standard scales issued by IPCC, NATO and other authorities indicate that only probabilities above 60% should be described as “likely”. We find, in contrast, that when people apply this term to continuous quantities, like expected costs, it describes the most likely (modal) outcome or a central range, regardless of actual probabilities, which may be quite small. This was demonstrated in five studies in which lay participants were shown bell-shaped probability distributions from various domains and were asked to provide or to select “likely” outcome intervals. They also gave numeric estimates of probabilities of these intervals. Participants neglected numeric and graphically displayed information, and considered central, narrow but representative outcomes as “likely” (as opposed to much larger intervals in the tails) We conclude that the p > .6-interpretation of “likely” is only valid for binary outcomes but not for continuous quantities

Løhre, Erik & Kanten, Alf Børre (2020)

Communicated and perceived public consensus about climate change

[Academic lecture]. Conference on Environmental Psychology.

Løhre, Erik (2020)

Understanding intuitive interpretations of uncertain climate change predictions

[Academic lecture]. Big Insight Wednesday Lunch.

Johnsen, Svein Åge Kjøs; Løhre, Erik, Lappegard Hauge, Åshild, Brechan, Inge, Watten, Reidulf G., Rydstedt, Leif W, Rønning, Monica, Flagstad, Ingeborg Olsdatter, Konijnenberg, Carolien, Lugo, Ricardo Gregorio & Håkansson, UIrika (2019)

Psykologifagets klimaløsninger

[Article in business/trade/industry journal]. Tidsskrift for Norsk Psykologforening, 56(10), s. 775- 776.

Teigen, Karl Halvor; Hohle, Sigrid Møyner & Løhre, Erik (2019)

Uncertain statements about climate change: What do they tell the public?

[Academic lecture]. CeCAR Lunch Seminar.

Teigen, Karl Halvor; Løhre, Erik & Hohle, Sigrid Møyner (2019)

Hva ligger i et anslag? Folks tolkninger av hva klimaforskerne sier

[Academic lecture]. CSN-konferanse 2019.

Løhre, Erik (2018)

Perceived disagreement about environmental events: Effects of framing and directional verbal terms

[Academic lecture]. Conference on Environmental Psychology.

Teigen, Karl Halvor; Hohle, Sigrid Møyner & Løhre, Erik (2015)

Trends in forecasts: When past predictions change present risks

[Academic lecture]. SPUDM25 - Subjective probability, utility, and decision making conference.

Akademisk grad
År Akademisk institusjon Grad
2015 University of Oslo PhD
2011 University of Oslo Master
Arbeidserfaring
År Arbeidsgiver Tittel
2020 - Present BI Norwegian Business School Associate professor