Fagprofil

Knut Are Aastveit

Forsker II - Institutt for samfunnsøkonomi

Institutt for samfunnsøkonomi

Publikasjoner

Aastveit, Knut Are; Anundsen, Andre Kallåk & Herstad, Eyo A. Ildahl (2018)

Residential investment and recession predictability

International Journal of Forecasting Doi: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2018.09.008

We assess the importance of residential investment for the prediction of economic recessions for an unbalanced panel of 12 OECD countries over the period 1960Q1–2014Q4. Our approach is to estimate various probit models with different leading indicators and evaluate their relative prediction accuracies using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve as our forecasting performance metric. We document that residential investment contains information that is useful for predicting recessions both in-sample and out-of-sample. This result is robust to adding typical leading indicators, such as the term spread, stock prices, consumer confidence surveys and oil prices. It is shown that residential investment is particularly useful for the prediction of recessions for countries with high home-ownership rates. Finally, in a separate exercise for the US, we show that the predictive ability of residential investment is — in a broad sense — robust to employing real-time data.

Aastveit, Knut Are; Natvik, Gisle James & Sola, Sergio (2017)

Economic uncertainty and the influence of monetary policy

Journal of International Money and Finance, 76, s. 50- 67. Doi: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2017.05.003

This paper explores if economic uncertainty alters the macroeconomic influence of monetary policy. We use several measures of U.S. economic uncertainty, and estimate their interaction with monetary policy shocks as identified through structural vector autoregressions. We find that U.S. monetary policy shocks affect economic activity less when uncertainty is high, in line with “real-option” effects from theory. Holding uncertainty constant, the effect on investment is approximately halved when uncertainty is in its top instead of its bottom decile.

Aastveit, Knut Are; Bjørnland, Hilde C & Thorsrud, Leif Anders (2016)

The World Is Not Enough! Small Open Economies and Regional Dependence

The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 118(1), s. 168- 195. Doi: 10.1111/sjoe.12126

Aastveit, Knut Are; Jore, Anne Sofie & Ravazzolo, Francesco (2016)

Identification and real-time forecasting of Norwegian business cycles

International Journal of Forecasting, 32(2), s. 283- 292. Doi: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2015.06.006

Bjørnland, Hilde C; Thorsrud, Leif Anders & Aastveit, Knut Are (2014)

What drives oil prices? Emerging versus Developed Economies

Journal of applied econometrics, 30(7), s. 1013- 1028. Doi: 10.1002/jae.2406

Aastveit, Knut Are (2014)

Oil price shocks in a data-rich environment

Energy Economics, 45, s. 268- 279. Doi: 10.1016/j.eneco.2014.07.006

Aastveit, Knut Are & Trovik, Tørres (2014)

Estimating the output gap in real time: A factor model approach

Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 54(2), s. 180- 193. Doi: 10.1016/j.qref.2013.09.003

Aastveit, Knut Are; Gerdrup, Karsten R., Jore, Anne Sofie & Thorsrud, Leif Anders (2014)

Nowcasting GDP in real time: a density combination approach

Journal of business & economic statistics, 32(1), s. 48- 68. Doi: 10.1080/07350015.2013.844155

Aastveit, Knut Are & Trovik, Tørres (2012)

Nowcasting norwegian GDP: the role of asset prices in a small open economy

Empirical Economics, 42(1), s. 95- 119. Doi: 10.1007/s00181-010-0429-9

Bjørnland, Hilde C; Aastveit, Knut Are & Thorsrud, Leif Anders (2012)

What drives oil prices? Emerging versus developed economies

[Report]. Handelshøyskolen BI.

Aastveit, Knut Are; Thorsrud, Leif Anders, Gerdrup, Karsten & Jore, Anne Sofie (2011)

Nowcasting GDP in Real-Time: A Density Combination Approach

[Report]. Handelshøyskolen BI.

Bjørnland, Hilde C; Aastveit, Knut Are & Thorsrud, Leif Anders (2011)

The world is not enough! Small open economies and regional dependence

[Report]. Handelshøyskolen BI.

Bjørnland, Hilde C; Thorsrud, Leif Anders & Aastveit, Knut Are (2011)

The World is not enough! Small open ecnomics and regional dependence

[Report]. Norges Bank.

Aastveit, Knut Are & Trovik, Tørres (2008)

Nowcasting Norwegian GDP: The Role of Asset Prices in a Small Open Economy

[Academic lecture]. The 23rd Annual Congress of the European Economic Association.

Aastveit, Knut Are & Trovik, Tørres (2008)

Nowcasting Norwegian GDP: The Role of Asset Prices in a Small Open Economy

[Academic lecture]. The 28th International Symposium on Forecasting.

Aastveit, Knut Are & Trovik, Tørres (2008)

Estimating the Ouptut Gap in Real Time: A Factor Model Approach

[Academic lecture]. The 14th International Conference on Computing in Economics and Finance.

Aastveit, Knut Are & Trovik, Tørres (2008)

Estimating the Output Gap in Real Time: A Factor Model Approach

[Academic lecture]. The 4th Annual CIRANO Workshop on Data Revision in Macroeconomic Forecasting and Policy.

Aastveit, Knut Are & Trovik, Tørres (2008)

Estimating the Output Gap in Real Time: A Factor Model Approcah

[Academic lecture]. The 28 International Symposium on Forecasting.

Akademisk grad
År Akademisk institusjon Grad
2010 University of Oslo Ph.D Dr. Oecon.
2005 University of Oslo Master Cand. Oecon
2002 University of Oslo Bachelor
Arbeidserfaring
År Arbeidsgiver Tittel
2017 - Present Norges Bank Research Deputy Director
2017 - Present BI Norwegian Business School and CAMP Researcher II
2016 - 2017 Norges Bank Research Senior Researcher
2011 - 2015 Norges Bank Senior Adviser, Monetary policy department
2009 - 2011 Norges Bank Senior Economist, Monetary policy, Economics department
2006 - 2009 Norges Bank A�ffiliated research economist, Monetary policy, Research department
2005 - 2009 University of Oslo Research fellow at Department of Economics
2005 - 2005 Norges Bank Economist, Financial stability, Financial markets department
2004 - 2005 Norges Bank Student internship, Financial stability