The growth rates of the four largest European economies – France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom – have slowed in recent decades. The persistence of the slowdown suggests that a low-frequency structural change is at work. Longer life expectancy and declining fertility have led to gradually ageing populations. These demographic trends contribute to economic growth directly through aggregate savings and labor supply decisions and indirectly through distortionary taxes needed to fund pension systems. We provide a structural framework to quantify the demographic contributions to historical and future growth rates. Several reforms have been suggested to increase late-life labor supply and, through that, output growth. Our structural framework also gives a welfare measure to evaluate these proposed reforms. The welfare implications are heterogeneous across age, wealth, and income. Welfare heterogeneity offers some insights into the political economy of pension reforms and the opposition to their implementation despite the projected increase in aggregate output growth.
Henriksen, Espen & Tretvoll, Håkon (2023)
Evaluering av strategiske allokeringsbeslutninger: Regionfordelingen i SPU
Samfunnsøkonomen, 137(1), s. 39- 60.
Mange investorer velger å delegere forvaltningen av formuen sin til en forvaltningsbedrift. For eksempel har Finansdepartementet delegert gjennomføringen av forvaltningen av SPU («Oljefondet») til Norges Bank. Avkastning og risiko bestemmes da dels av de langsiktige strategiske valgene som oppdragsgiver har tatt og dels av de taktiske avvikene som forvalteren velger å ta. I denne artikkelen presenterer vi et strukturelt rammeverk for å evaluere strategiske valg og gi estimater på verdiskapingen ved disse valgene. Vi anvender dette på en beslutning i 2012 om hvordan aksjeporteføljen til SPU skulle fordeles på tvers av fire globale regioner.
There has been a slowdown in growth in the world’s most advanced economies. In this paper we argue that changing demographics, in particular aging populations combined with increased life expectancy, may be part of the explanation for why we observe slower growth, falling interest rates and falling productivity growth. Using Japan and the U.S. in the years prior to the financial crises as a case study, we provide estimates of the growth deficit that arises from an aging cohort structure and increasing life expectancy. We also provide projections of the impact of predictable demographic changes on future growth in the U.S. and Japan.
Backus, David K.; Cooley, Thomas F. & Henriksen, Espen (2014)
This paper addresses the classic question: what are the welfare costs of inflation. We employ a model in which the ratios of currency to deposits and currency to reserves are endogenously determined. The model distinguishes quantitatively between three sources of welfare cost of inflation, and provides further estimates for potential welfare gains from improvements in transaction technologies. Estimates of the marginal cost of public funds associated with the inflation tax are compared both with that of labor taxation within the model and with those reported in the public finance and macro literature. We conclude that not only is inflation an inefficient source of government revenue, but also that, in the absence of lump-sum taxation, deflationary policies may be highly inefficient.
Freeman, Scott; Henriksen, Espen & Kydland, Finn E. (2009)
The welfare cost of inflation in the presence of inside money
Altig, David & Nosal, Ed (red.). Monetary Policy in Low-Inflation Economies
Backus, D; Henriksen, Espen R. & Storesletten, Kjetil (2008)
Terminstrukturen for en råvare har stor betydning for hensiktsmessigheten av ulike prissikringsstrategier. I denne artikkelen studerer vi prisbildet i markedet for Brent-futures i perioden 1988-1998. Sentrale begreper når futures-markedet karakteriseres er backwardation og contango. Backwardation er betegnelsen på tilstanden når spotprisen er høyere enn de diskonterte futures-prisene, mens contango er betegnelsen på tilstanden når spotprisene er lavere enn de diskonterte futures-prisene. Resultatene fra de empiriske analysene på grunnlag av daglige data for Brent Blend futures fra International Petroleum Exchange for perioden juni 1988 til desember 1998 viser at markedet ikke entydig kan beskrives som backwardated. Andelen av tiden hvor markedet er backwardated i vårt datasett er vesentlig lavere enn hva som er funnet i analyser av andre markeder for råolje.
Henriksen, Espen & Storesletten, Kjetil (2020)
Selge? Eller kjøpe? Investeringsråd i tider med koronavirus og oljepriskollaps
Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]
Akademisk grad
År
Akademisk institusjon
Grad
2005
Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business
Ph.D Dr. Philos.
Arbeidserfaring
År
Arbeidsgiver
Tittel
2015 - Present
Department of Finance, BI Norwegian Business School
