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Ansattprofil

Gisle James Natvik

Professor - Institutt for samfunnsøkonomi

Biografi

Gisle J. Natvik is a professor of economics at the Norwegian Business School (BI). His main research interests are within macro economics, monetary economics and political economy.

Natvik's work has been published in European Economic Review, International Economic Review, Journal of the European Economic Association, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Journal of Public Economics, and other journals.

For further information, please see my personal homepage.

Publikasjoner

Mehlum, Halvor; Natvik, Gisle James & Torvik, Ragnar (2024)

The impossible trinity: Competitive markets, free entry, and efficiency

Journal of Public Economics, 239 Doi: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105240 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

Fagereng, Andreas; Holm, Martin Blomhoff & Natvik, Gisle James (2021)

MPC Heterogeneity and Household Balance Sheets

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 13(4), s. 1- 54. Doi: 10.1257/mac.20190211 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

We use sizable lottery prizes in Norwegian administrative panel data to explore how transitory income shocks are spent and saved over time, and how households’ marginal propensities to consume (MPCs) vary with household characteristics and shock size. We find that spending peaks in the year of winning and gradually reverts to normal within five years. Controlling for all items on households’ balance sheets and characteristics such as education and income, it is the amount won, age, and liquid assets that vary systematically with MPCs. Low-liquidity winners of the smallest prizes (around USD 1,500) are estimated to spend all within the year of winning. The corresponding estimate for high-liquidity winners of large prizes (USD 8,300-150,000) is slightly below one half. While conventional models will struggle to account for such high MPC levels, we show that a two-asset life-cycle model with a realistic earnings profile and a luxury bequest motive can account for both the time profile of consumption responses and their systematic co-variation with observables.

Natvik, Gisle James & Grisse, Christian (2020)

Sovereign debt crises and cross-country assistance

Oxford Economic Papers, 74(1), s. 178- 193. Doi: 10.1093/oep/gpaa019 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

We provide a parsimonious framework to study the interplay between cross-country assistance and expectations-driven sovereign debt crises. Our framework extends the traditional single-country model of how multiple perfect-foresight equilibria are possible when a sovereign attempts to service public debt. The extension is that a self-interested ‘safe’ country may choose to assist a ‘risky’ country which is prone to default. Investors internalize the potential for assistance when lending to fragile countries. If the safe country cannot commit to fixed cross-country transfers or rule them out completely, assistance improves equilibrium outcomes only if the risky country is fundamentally insolvent in the sense that it cannot repay existing debt at the risk-free interest rate. If a default requires pessimistic expectations, an incentive-compatible (IC) assistance policy has adverse side effects.

Gulbrandsen, Magnus Andreas Haare & Natvik, Gisle James (2020)

Monetary Policy and Household Debt

Nordic Economic Policy Review, s. 67- 99. Doi: 10.6027/Nord2020-025 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

We address the interplay between household debt accumulation and monetary policy. Monetary policy likely affects household debt-to-income ratios via disposable income and inflation, not just by changing the financial incentive to save. We provide micro-level snapshots from Norway on how households’ income flows and debt accumulation co-move with interest rates and inflation. Real interest rate hikes are associated with increased real debt due to strong negative association between inflation and real debt. We therefore caution against pursuing contractionary policies to curb household debt. By lowering inflation, such policies might backfire and increase household debt burdens.

Natvik, Gisle James; Rime, Dagfinn & Syrstad, Olav (2020)

Does publication of interest rate paths provide guidance?

Journal of International Money and Finance, 103(May), s. 1- 22. Doi: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2019.102123 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

Does the central bank practice of publishing interest rate projections (IRPs) improve how market participants map new information into future interest rates? Using high-frequency data on forward rate agreements (FRAs) we compute market forecast errors; differences between expected future interest rates and ex-post realizations. We assess their change in narrow windows around monetary policy announcements and macroeconomic releases in Norway and Sweden. Overall, communication of future policy plans does not improve markets’ response to information, irrespective of whether or not IRPs are in place. A decomposition of market reactions into responses to the current monetary policy action (“target”) and responses to signals about the future (“path”), reveals that only policy actions lead to improvements in market forecasts.

Caporin, Massimiliano; Natvik, Gisle James, Ravazzolo, Francesco & Santucci de Magistris, Paolo (2019)

The bank-sovereign nexus: Evidence from a non-bailout episode

Journal of Empirical Finance, 53, s. 181- 196. Doi: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2019.07.001 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

We explore the interplay between sovereign and bank credit risk in a setting where Danish authorities first let two Danish banks default and then left the country’s largest bank, Danske Bank, to recapitalize privately. We find that the correlation between bank and sovereign credit default swap (CDS) rates changed with these events. Following the non-bailout events, the sensitivity to external shocks, proxied by CDS rates on the European banking sector, declined both for Danske Bank and for Danish sovereign debt. After Danske Bank’s recapitalization, its exposure to the European banking sector reappeared while that did not happen for Danish sovereign debt. The decoupling between CDS rates on sovereign and private bank debt indicates that the vicious feedback loop between bank and sovereign risk weakened after the non-bailout policies were introduced.

Gelain, Paolo; Lansing, Kevin & Natvik, Gisle James (2018)

Explaining the Boom-Bust Cycle in the U.S. Housing Market: A Reverse-Engineering Approach

Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 50(8), s. 1751- 1783. Doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12504

We use a quantitative asset pricing model to “reverse‐engineer” the sequences of shocks to housing demand and lending standards needed to replicate the boom–bust patterns in U.S. housing value and mortgage debt from 1993 to 2015. Conditional on the observed paths for U.S. real consumption growth, the real mortgage interest rate, and the supply of residential fixed assets, a specification with random walk expectations outperforms one with rational expectations in plausibly matching the patterns in the data. Counterfactual simulations show that shocks to housing demand, housing supply, and lending standards were important, but movements in the mortgage interest rate were not.

Gelain, Paolo; Lansing, Kevin & Natvik, Gisle James (2018)

Leaning Against The Credit Cycle

Journal of the European Economic Association, 16(5), s. 1350- 1393. Doi: 10.1093/jeea/jvx043 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

How should a central bank act to stabilize the ratio of debt over gross domestic product (GDP)? We show how the persistent nature of household debt shapes the answer to this question. In environments where households repay mortgages gradually, surprise interest hikes only weakly influence household debt, and tend to increase debt-to-GDP in the short run while reducing it in the medium run. Interest rate rules with a positive weight on debt-to-GDP cause indeterminacy. Compared to inflation targeting, debt-to-GDP stabilization calls for a more expansionary policy when debt-to-GDP is high, so as to deflate the debt burden through inflation and output growth.

Holden, Steinar; Natvik, Gisle James & Vigier, Adrien Henri (2018)

CREDIT RATING AND DEBT CRISES

International Economic Review, 59(2), s. 973- 987. Doi: 10.1111/iere.12293 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

We develop an equilibrium theory of credit rating in the presence of rollover risk. By influencing rational creditors, ratings affect sovereigns' probability of default, which in turn affects ratings. Our analysis reveals a pro‐cyclical impact of credit rating: In equilibrium the presence of a rating agency increases default risk when it is high and decreases default risk when it is low.

Aastveit, Knut Are; Natvik, Gisle James & Sola, Sergio (2017)

Economic uncertainty and the influence of monetary policy

Journal of International Money and Finance, 76, s. 50- 67. Doi: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2017.05.003

This paper explores if economic uncertainty alters the macroeconomic influence of monetary policy. We use several measures of U.S. economic uncertainty, and estimate their interaction with monetary policy shocks as identified through structural vector autoregressions. We find that U.S. monetary policy shocks affect economic activity less when uncertainty is high, in line with “real-option” effects from theory. Holding uncertainty constant, the effect on investment is approximately halved when uncertainty is in its top instead of its bottom decile.

Natvik, Gisle James & Mirkov, Nikola (2016)

Announcements of interest rate forecasts: Do policymakers stick to them?

Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 48(5), s. 901- 920. Doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12321

Matsen, Egil; Natvik, Gisle James & Torvik, Ragnar (2016)

Petro populism

Journal of Development Economics, 118, s. 1- 12. Doi: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2015.08.010

Natvik, Gisle James (2013)

The Political Economy of Fiscal Deficits and Government Production

European Economic Review, 58, s. 81- 94. Doi: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2012.12.001

Natvik, Gisle James; Furlanetto, Francesco & Seneca, Martin (2013)

Investment shocks and macroeconomic co-movement

Journal of macroeconomics, 37, s. 208- 216. Doi: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2013.03.005

Natvik, Gisle James (2012)

Government Spending Shocks and Rule-of-Thumb Consumers with Steady State Inequality

The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 114, s. 1414- 1436. Doi: 10.1111/j.1467-9442.2012.01727.x

Natvik, Gisle James (2009)

Government Spending and the Taylor Principle

Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 41(1), s. 57- 77.

Holm, Martin B. & Natvik, Gisle James (2023)

Hvorfor ikke lavere skatter?

Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]

Natvik, Gisle James (2018)

Verden venter, SSB

Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]

Natvik, Gisle James (1)

Karantenegevinstene synes ikke å ha blitt vurdert opp mot kostnadene de påfører barna

Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]

Natvik, Gisle James (1)

Renteøkning nå, når ressursene blir knappe?

Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]

Natvik, Gisle James (1)

Pengepolitikken er ikke særlig stram nå

Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]

Natvik, Gisle James (1)

Et problem med krisestøtte til næringslivet

Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]

Natvik, Gisle James (1)

Slåss du mot grunnleggende fornuftig beskatning, ber du om ustabilitet

Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]

Natvik, Gisle James (1)

Hvordan havnet vi her?

Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]

Natvik, Gisle James (1)

Farvel til Norges verste kontrakt?

Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]

Natvik, Gisle James (1)

Utilsiktet effekt av Boliglånsforskriften?

Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]

Natvik, Gisle James (1)

7 faste kronikker i DN 2021

Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]

Natvik, Gisle James (1)

Krisetiltakene må endres slik at de fremmer verdiskaping

Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]

Natvik, Gisle James (1)

Inflasjon og gjeld

Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]

Natvik, Gisle James (1)

Veien tilbake til tre prosent

Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]

Natvik, Gisle James (1)

Bra for bedriften betyr ikke bra for samfunnet

Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]

Natvik, Gisle James (1)

Tåkelegger oljepengebruken

Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]

Natvik, Gisle James (1)

Frempek som virkemiddel i økonomisk politikk

Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]

Natvik, Gisle James (1)

Reservasjonsrett mot forbrukslån

Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]

Natvik, Gisle James & Holden, Steinar (1)

Forbrukslån må bli mindre lønnsomt

Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]

Natvik, Gisle James (1)

Spisskompetanse sist og ulne prioriteringer nok en gang

Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]

Fiva, Jon H. & Natvik, Gisle James (1)

Skatten de elsker å hate https://www.bi.no/bizreview/artikler/skatten-de-elsker-a-hate/

Klassekampen [Kronikk]

Ellingsrud, Sigmund; Kinnerud, Karin & Natvik, Gisle James (2023)

The Inflation Tilt Effect

[Academic lecture]. 1st Arne Ryde Workshop - Micro Data meet Macro Models.

Holm, Martin B.; Natvik, Gisle James, Fagereng, Andreas, Moll, Benjamin, Gouin-Bonenfant, Emilien & Gomez, Matthieu (2023)

Asset-Price Redistribution

[Academic lecture]. Seminar, Cunef University.

Holm, Martin B.; Fagereng, Andreas, Natvik, Gisle James, Gouin-Bonenfant, Emilien, Gomez, Matthieu & Moll, Benjamin (2023)

Asset-Price Redistribution

[Academic lecture]. Seminar, Lund University.

Holm, Martin B.; Natvik, Gisle James, Fagereng, Andreas & Moll, Benjamin (2023)

Saving Behavior across the Wealth Distribution: The Importance of Capital Gains

[Academic lecture]. Workshop on “Unveiling Wealth and Income Inequalities”.

Harmenberg, Karl; Gulbrandsen, Magnus Andreas Haare, Fagereng, Andreas & Natvik, Gisle James (2022)

Macro shocks in a micro laboratory: evidence on spousal income insurance, spending, and spillovers

[Academic lecture]. European Economic Association.

Fagereng, Andreas; Gulbrandsen, Magnus Andreas Haare, Holm, Martin B. & Natvik, Gisle James (2022)

How Does Monetary Policy Affect Household Indebtedness?

[Academic lecture]. Bank of Canada.

Fagereng, Andreas; Gomez, Matthieu, Gouin-Bonenfant, Emilien, Holm, Martin B., Moll, Benjamin & Natvik, Gisle James (2022)

Asset-Price Redistribution

[Academic lecture]. Banque de France.

Fagereng, Andreas; Gomez, Matthieu, Gouin-Bonenfant, Emilien, Holm, Martin B., Moll, Benjamin & Natvik, Gisle James (2022)

Asset-Price Redistribution

[Academic lecture]. Workshop at Norges Bank.

Fagereng, Andreas; Gomez, Matthieu, Gouin-Bonenfant, Emilien, Holm, Martin B., Moll, Benjamin & Natvik, Gisle James (2022)

Asset-Price Redistribution

[Academic lecture]. Copenhagen University.

Fagereng, Andreas; Gomez, Matthieu, Gouin-Bonenfant, Emilien, Holm, Martin B., Moll, Benjamin & Natvik, Gisle James (2022)

Asset-Price Redistribution

[Academic lecture]. EEA-ESEM.

Kinnerud, Karin; Natvik, Gisle James & Ellingsrud, Sigmund (2022)

Do indebted households benefit from inflation?

[Academic lecture]. Perspectives on Kurtosis in Macroeconomics.

Fagereng, Andreas; Holm, Martin Blomhoff, Gulbrandsen, Magnus & Natvik, Gisle James (2021)

How Does Monetary Policy Affect Household Indebtedness?

[Article in business/trade/industry journal]. Working Paper, Norges Bank, 2021(5), s. 1- 24.

Mehlum, Halvor; Natvik, Gisle James & Torvik, Ragnar (2021)

The Inefficient Combination: Competitive Markets, Free Entry, and Democracy

[Report]. Centre for Applied Macroeconomics and Commodity Prices (CAMP).

Natvik, Gisle James & Gulbrandsen, Magnus Andreas Haare (2020)

Monetary Policy and Household Debt

[Academic lecture]. NEPR digital launch webinar on Financial Regulation and Macroeconomic Stability in the Nordics, June 2020.

Fagereng, Andreas; Holm, Martin Blomhoff, Moll, Benjamin & Natvik, Gisle James (2019)

Saving Behavior Across the Wealth Distribution: The Importance of Capital Gains

[Report]. NBER Working paper.

Natvik, Gisle James & Gulbrandsen, Magnus Andreas Haare (2019)

Monetary policy and household debt

[Academic lecture]. Nordic Economic Policy Review 2020: Financial Regulation and Macroeconomic Stability.

Fagereng, Andreas; Holm, Martin Blomhoff, Moll, Benjamin & Natvik, Gisle James (2019)

Saving Behavior Across the Wealth Distribution

[Academic lecture]. Annual Congress of the European Economic Association.

Fagereng, Andreas; Holm, Martin Blomhoff, Moll, Benjamin & Natvik, Gisle James (2019)

Saving Behavior Across the Wealth Distribution: The Importance of Capital Gains

[Academic lecture]. Konferanse: New Consumption Data, Universitetet i København.

Fagereng, Andreas; Natvik, Gisle James, Holm, Martin Blomhoff & Moll, Benjamin (2019)

Saving Behavior Across the Wealth Distribution

[Academic lecture]. American Economic Association: Annual Meeting.

Fagereng, Andreas; Natvik, Gisle James, Holm, Martin Blomhoff & Moll, Benjamin (2019)

Saving Behavior Across the Wealth Distribution: The Importance of Capital Gains

[Academic lecture]. NBER Summer Institute, EF&G Research Meeting.

Fagereng, Andreas; Holm, Martin Blomhoff & Natvik, Gisle James (2018)

MPC Heterogeneity and Household Balance Sheets

[Academic lecture]. Workshop on New Consumption Data.

Natvik, Gisle James; Holm, Martin Blomhoff & Fagereng, Andreas (2017)

MPC heterogeneity and household balance sheets

[Academic lecture]. Santa Clare University research seminar.

Natvik, Gisle James; Gelain, Paolo & Lansing, Kevin (2017)

Leaning against the credit cycle

[Academic lecture]. Society of nonlinear dynamics and econometrics yearly conference.

Holm, Martin Blomhoff; Natvik, Gisle James & Fagereng, Andreas (2017)

MPC heterogeneity and household balance sheets

[Academic lecture]. The New Macroeconomics of Aggregate Fluctuations and Stabilisation Policy.

Natvik, Gisle James; Holm, Martin Blomhoff & Fagereng, Andreas (2017)

MPC heterogeneity and household balance sheets

[Academic lecture]. CEPR Workshop on Household Finance, Spring 2017.

Holm, Martin Blomhoff; Fagereng, Andreas & Natvik, Gisle James (2017)

MPC Heterogeneity and Household Balance Sheets

[Academic lecture]. Annual Meeting of the European Economic Association.

Holm, Martin Blomhoff; Fagereng, Andreas & Natvik, Gisle James (2017)

MPC Heterogeneity and Household Balance Sheets

[Academic lecture]. Society of Economic Dynamics Annual Meeting.

Holm, Martin Blomhoff; Fagereng, Andreas & Natvik, Gisle James (2017)

MPC Heterogeneity and Household Balance Sheets

[Academic lecture]. NBER Summer Institute.

Holm, Martin Blomhoff; Fagereng, Andreas & Natvik, Gisle James (2016)

MPC Heterogeneity and Household Balance Sheets

[Academic lecture]. Annual Conference of the International Association of Applied Econometrics.

Holm, Martin Blomhoff; Natvik, Gisle James & Fagereng, Andreas (2016)

MPC Heterogeneity and Household Balance Sheets

[Academic lecture]. Econometric Society European Winter Meeting.

Fiva, Jon H.; Natvik, Gisle James & Andersen, Jørgen Juel (2011)

Voting when the stakes are high

[Academic lecture]. Nordic Workshop on Tax Policy and Public Economics.

Andersen, Jørgen Juel; Fiva, Jon H. & Natvik, Gisle James (2010)

Voting when the Stakes are High

[Report]. CESifo Group Munich.

Akademisk grad
År Akademisk institusjon Grad
2008 University of Oslo Ph.D.
2003 University of Oslo Master Cand. Oecon
Arbeidserfaring
År Arbeidsgiver Tittel
2018 - Present BI Norwegian Business School Professor
2014 - 2018 BI Norwegian Business School Assistant professor
2008 - 2014 Norges Bank, Research department Advisor/ Research economist
2004 - 2008 Norges Bank, Research department Affiliated researcher
2003 - 2004 Norges Bank, Research department Research economist
2001 - 2003 The Ragnar Frisch Center for Economic Research Research assistant
2000 - 2002 University of Oslo Research assistant