Hilde C. Bjørnland is Professor of Economics at the BI Norwegian Business School. She holds a Master of Science in Econometrics and Mathematical Economics from London School of Economics, and a PhD (Dr.Polit) in Economics from the University of Oslo. She was awarded His Majesty, The King of Norway’s Gold medal for the Ph.D. thesis in social Sciences.
Her main area of research is within applied macroeconomics and time series. Special interests include the study of natural resources, business cycles and monetary and fiscal policy. She has published in leading journals such as the American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, Economic Journal, Journal of Monetary Economics, Journal of International Economics and the Review of Economics and Statistics.
Bjørnland is also Director and Founder of Centre for Applied Macroeconomics and Commodity Prices (CAMP) at the BI Norwegian Business School. She holds a position as a scientific advisor to Norges Bank, she is elected Fellow to the International Association of Applied Econometrics (IAAE), Ex-President and elected member of the Executive Committe for Society for Nonlinear and Dynamics Econometrics (SNDE) and research associate of the Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis (CAMA) at the Australia National University. She is also member of the Finnish Economic Policy Council and the Norwegian Government Commission appointed to assess the Financial Supervisory Act and activities.
Bjørnland has previously held positions as Provost for Research and Academic Resources at BI Norwegian Business School, staff economist at the International Monetary Fund and Associate Professor at the University of Oslo. She has been a Visiting Scholar at UC Berkeley and UC Riverside, a member of the Swedish Fiscal Policy Council, member of the corporate assembly of Norsk Hydro ASA, a board member of the Financial Supervisory Authority of Norway, the Petroleum Price Board, and the Abel Prize Board. Bjørnland has been a member of several governement commissions and groups, including the Norwegian government appointed expert group assessing the economic consequences of COVID-19, the Norwegian government commission to reevaluate the fiscal rule for the take-out from the oil fund (Thøgersen Commission) and the Norwegian government commisssion that assessed the equity portion of the Norwegian Government Pension Fund Global (Mork Commission).
Bjørnland, Hilde C & Zhulanova Skretting, Julia (2024)
The shale oil boom and the US economy: Spillovers and time-varying effects
Journal of applied econometrics, s. 1- 21. Doi: 10.1002/jae.3059
We provide new evidence that the transmission of oil price shocks to the US economy has changed with the shale oil boom. To show this, we develop a time-varying parameter factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) model with a large data environment of state-level, industry, and aggregate US data. The model effectively captures potential spillovers between oil and non-oil industries, as well as variation over time. Specified in this way, we find that investment, income, industrial production, and (non-oil) employment in most oil-producing and some manufacturing-intensive US states increase following an oil-specific shock—effects that were not present before the shale oil boom.
Aastveit, Knut Are; Bjørnland, Hilde C & Cross, Jamie (2023)
INFLATION EXPECTATIONS AND THE PASS-THROUGH OF OIL PRICES
Review of Economics and Statistics, 105(3), s. 733- 743. Doi: 10.1162/rest_a_01073
Alstadheim, Ragna; Bjørnland, Hilde C & Maih, Junior (2021)
Do central banks respond to exchange rate movements? A Markov-switching structural investigation of commodity exporters and importers
We analyse whether central banks in small open commodity exporting and importing countries respond to exchange rate movements, taking into consideration that there may be structural changes in parameters and volatility. Using a Markov Switching Rational Expectations framework, we estimate the model for Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Norway, Sweden and the UK. We find that the size of policy responses, and the volatility of structural shocks, have not stayed constant over the estimation sample. Furthermore, monetary policy has responded strongly to the exchange rate for many commodity exporters, most notablyNorway. This has had a stabilizing effect on the exchange rate. In particular, although the terms of trade are highly volatile among commodity exporters, the exchange rate has about the same volatility across all importers and exporters in the recent period.
Bjørnland, Hilde C; Nordvik, Frode Martin & Rohrer, Maximilian (2021)
Supply flexibility in the shale patch: Evidence from North Dakota
This paper provides new results to the literature, showing that output flexibility in oil production depends on the extraction technology. In particular, constructing a novel well-level monthly production dataset covering more than 16,000 crude oil wells in North Dakota, we find supply elasticity of shale wells to be positive and in the range of 0.3–0.9, depending on wells and firms characteristics. We find no such responses for conventional wells. We interpret the supply pattern of shale oil wells to be consistent with the Hotelling theory of optimal extraction. Reserves are an inventory, and the decision to produce is an intertemporal choice of when to draw down below-ground inventory.
In this paper we develop the first model to incorporate the dynamic productivity consequences of both the spending effect and the resource movement effect of oil abundance. We show that doing so dramatically alters the conclusions drawn from earlier models of learning by doing (LBD) and the Dutch disease. In particular, the resource movement effect suggests that the growth effects of natural resources are likely to be positive, turning previous growth results in the literature relying on the spending effect on their head. We motivate the relevance of our approach by the example of a major oil producer, Norway. Empirically we find that the effects of an increase in the price of oil may resemble results found in the earlier Dutch disease literature, while the effects of increased oil activity increases productivity in most industries. Therefore, models that only focus on windfall gains due to increased spending potential from higher oil prices, would conclude – incorrectly based on our analysis – that the resource sector cannot be an engine of growth.
Bjørnland, Hilde C & Thorsrud, Leif Anders (2018)
Commodity prices and fiscal policy design: Procyclical despite a rule
A stable demand for money despite financial crisis: the case of Venezuela
Applied Economics, 37
Bjørnland, Hilde C (2004)
The role of the exchange rate as a shock absorber in a small open economy
Open Economies Review, 15, s. 23- 43.
Bjørnland, Hilde C (2004)
Estimating the equilibrium real exchange rate in Venezuela
Economics Bulletin, 6, s. 1- 8.
Bjørnland, Hilde C (2002)
Konjunkturforskning i et historisk lys. Er konjunktursvingninger like reelle som før?
Økonomisk forum, 56, s. 30- 40.
Bjørnland, Hilde C (2001)
Identifying domestic and imported core inflation
Applied Economics, 33(14), s. 1819- 1831.
This paper estimates core inflation in Norway, identified as that component of inflation that has no long-run effect on GDP. The model distinguishes explicitly between domestic and imported core inflation. The results show that (domestic) core inflation is the main component of CPI inflation. However, CPI inflation misrepresents core inflation during some periods. The differences are well explained by the other shocks identified in the model, in particular the oil price shocks of the 1970s when Norway imported inflation, and the negative non-core (supply) shocks of the late 1980s which pushed inflation up temporarily relative to core inflation.
Bjørnland, Hilde C (2000)
Detrending methods and stylized facts of business cycles in Norway - an international comparison
Empirical Economics, 25(3), s. 369- 392.
This paper analyses the stylized facts of business cycles in Norway, by comparing different detrending methods. As the choice of the appropriate data transformation depends on the nature of the underlying dynamic properties of the time series, a set of unit root tests are first applied to the data. The detrended data are analysed, both in the time domain and the frequency domain. The evidence suggests that whereas some variables (e.g. consumption and investment) behave consistently procyclically with GDP, for other variables (e.g. real wage and prices), the business cycle properties vary considerably with the detrending methods used. The results are evaluated from a real business cycle perspective, but overall, there is little evidence to support a (supply driven) real business cycle. Symmetries in business cycles are finally analysed by comparing the business cycles in Norway and selected countries.
Bjørnland, Hilde C (2000)
The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand, Supply and Oil Price Shocks-A Comparative Study
Manchester School, 68(5), s. 578- 607.
This paper analyses the dynamic effects of aggregate demand, supply and oil price shocks on GDP and unemployment in Germany, Norway, UK and US, and establishes the role of the different shocks in explaining output fluctuations over time. Symmetries of economic fluctuations across countries are also examined. The different shocks are identified by imposing dynamic restrictions on a structural VAR model. For all countries except Norway, oil price shocks have significant negative effects on output. However, whereas the oil price shock in 1973/1974 triggered off a global recession, the recession in the early 1980s was largely caused by other disturbances.
Bjørnland, Hilde C (1999)
Structural breaks and stochastic trends in macroeoconomic variables in Norway
Applied Economics Letters, 6(3), s. 133- 138.
This paper analyses the dynamic properties of several macroeconomic variables in Norway, using different unit root tests and measures of persistence. For none of the variables can we reject the hypothesis of a unit root in favour of a deterministic linear trend alternative. However, when allowing for a structural break in the trend alternative, we can reject the hypothesis of a unit root for unemployment, government consumption, investment and real wage. Most of the Norwegian time series display little persistence. However, for those series that show a high degree of persistence, adjusting for the break in the trend, persistence falls considerably.
Bjørnland, Hilde C (1998)
The Economic Effects of North Sea Oil on the Manufacturing Sector
Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 45(5), s. 553- 585.
This paper analyses the economic effects of the oil and gas sector (energy booms) on manufacturing output in two energy producing countries: Norway and the UK. In particular, I investigate whether there is evidence of a "Dutch disease", that is whether energy booms have had adverse effects on manufactures. In additions to energy booms, three other types of structural disturbances are identified: demand, supply and oil price shocks. The different disturbances are identified by imposing dynamic restrictions on a vector autoregressive model. Overall, there is only weak evidence of a Dutch disease in the UK, whereas manufacturing output in Norway has actually benefited from energy discoveries and higher oil prices.
Bjørnland, Hilde C (1998)
Håpløse spådommer, bølgeteori og falske sykler
Sosialøkonomen, 52(6), s. 18- 27.
Bjørnland, Hilde C (1997)
Estimering av underliggende inflasjon
Sosialøkonomen, s. 12- 18.
Bjørnland, Hilde C (2023)
Virker renten?
Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]
Bjørnland, Hilde C (2023)
Oljepengebruken må under lupen
Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]
Bjørnland, Hilde C (2023)
Fortsatt inflasjonsfare
Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]
Bjørnland, Hilde C (2023)
Uforutsigbar finanspolitikk er problemet
Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]
Bjørnland, Hilde C (2023)
Renten må fortsatt opp
Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]
Bjørnland, Hilde C (2023)
Rentene kan bli høye lenge
Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]
Bjørnland, Hilde C (2021)
Krisevarsling og økonomisk politikk
Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]
Bjørnland, Hilde C (2021)
Koronaskjevhet kan bremse oppgangen
Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]
Bjørnland, Hilde C (2021)
Handlingsregelen bør fortsatt skrotes
Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]
Bjørnland, Hilde C (2021)
På tide å skrote Handlingsregelen
Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]
Bjørnland, Hilde C (2021)
God grunn til å frykte boomerang til høsten
Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]
Bjørnland, Hilde C (2020)
Koronahjelp til klimakampen
Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]
Bjørnland, Hilde C (2020)
Pandemien vil gi varige endringer – politikerne må tilrettelegge for det nå
Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]
Bjørnland, Hilde C (2020)
Den andre bølgen
Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]
Bjørnland, Hilde C (2020)
Arbeid etter pandemien
Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]
Bjørnland, Hilde C (2020)
Oppgangen kan ta tid denne gangen
Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]
Bjørnland, Hilde C (2020)
Vi må forberede oss på den nye normalen
Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]
Bjørnland, Hilde C (2020)
Det hjelper norsk økonomi lite om vi "åpner Norge" nå
Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]
Bjørnland, Hilde C (2020)
Tid for omstilling
Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]
Bjørnland, Hilde C (2020)
Det verste er foran oss
Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]
Bjørnland, Hilde C (2015)
Prioriteringer i en krevende tid
Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]
Bjørnland, Hilde C (2015)
Nitrist sommer
Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]
Bjørnland, Hilde C (2015)
Programmering for fremtiden
Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]
Bjørnland, Hilde C (2015)
Omstillingsdebatt på avveie
Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]
Bjørnland, Hilde C (2015)
Tid for prioritering
Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]
Bjørnland, Hilde C (2014)
Norway: Cruise control
Financial Times [Avis]
Bjørnland, Hilde C (2013)
Tåler vi halvert oljepris?
Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]
Bjørnland, Hilde C (2013)
Detaljstyrt stat
Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]
Bjørnland, Hilde C (2013)
Asia i førersetet
Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]
Bjørnland, Hilde C (2013)
Valgkamp i en krevende tid
Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]
Bjørnland, Hilde C (2013)
Bruk pengene smartere
Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]
Bjørnland, Hilde C & Thorsrud, Leif Anders (2013)
Ringvirkninger av olje
Finansavisen [Kronikk]
Thorsrud, Leif Anders & Bjørnland, Hilde C (2012)
Ser i glasskulen med nye øyne
Dagens Næringsliv [Avis]
Bjørnland, Hilde C & NRK, nyhetsjournalist (2012)
Har gitt diverse intervju for Dagsnytt 18, Dagsrevyen, Ekko, Dagsnytt
[TV]
Bjørnland, Hilde C (2011)
Skjermet fra Eurokrisen
Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]
Bjørnland, Hilde C (2011)
Ond sirkel i USA
Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]
Bjørnland, Hilde C (2011)
Evig boligprisvekst?
Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]
Bjørnland, Hilde C (2011)
Staten – for stor og dyr
Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]
Bjørnland, Hilde C (2011)
Jubileum og Justering
Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]
Bjørnland, Hilde C & Moen, Espen R (2011)
Oljens Ringvirkninger
Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]
Miller, J. Isaac; Bjørnland, Hilde C & Chang, Yoosoon (1)
Introduction to “New Developments in Econometrics of Energy and Climate”
Energy Economics [Kronikk]
Bjørnland, Hilde C & Thorsrud, Leif Anders (1)
Oljeringvirkninger
Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]
Bjørnland, Hilde C (1)
Gjestekommentar hver åttende uke i Dagens Næringsliv
Finanspolitikken, om konjunktursvingninger og makroøkonomisk styring
[Academic lecture]. Kurs for lærere i samfunnsøkonomi ved videregående skoler.
Bjørnland, Hilde C (2003)
Inflasjonsmål som stabiliseringspolitikk - styring under usikkerhet
[Academic lecture]. Valutaseminaret.
Bjørnland, Hilde C & Hungnes, Håvard (2002)
Fundamental determinants of the long run real exchange rate: The case of Norway
[Report]. Økonomisk institutt.
Bjørnland, Hilde C (2002)
Sources of real exchange rate fluctuations in Venezuela
[Academic lecture]. Growth and Business cycles in Theory and Practice.
Bjørnland, Hilde C (2002)
Fundamental determinants of the long-run real exchange rate
[Academic lecture]. .
Bjørnland, Hilde C (2002)
Hva bestemmer realvalutakursen på lang sikt?
[Academic lecture]. .
Bjørnland, Hilde C (2002)
Beregning av trender, konjunkturutslag og impliserte effekter på budsjettindikatoren. Rom for forbedringer?
[Academic lecture]. .
Bjørnland, Hilde C (2002)
Estimating the equilibrium real exchange rate: The case of Venezuela
[Academic lecture]. 57th European Meeting of the Econometric Society.
Bjørnland, Hilde C (2002)
Moderne konjunkturforskning
[Academic lecture]. Det 24. nasjonale forskermøte for økonomer.
Bjørnland, Hilde C (2000)
Identifying Domestic and Imported Core Inflation
[Report]. International Monetary Fund.
This paper estimates core inflation in Norway, identified as that component of inflation that has no long-run effect on GDP. The model distinguishes explicitly between domestic and imported core inflation. The results show that (domestic) core inflation is the main component of CPI inflation. However, CPI inflation misrepresents core inflation during some periods. The differences are well explained by the other shocks identified in the model, in particular the oil price shocks of the 1970s when Norway imported inflation, and the negative non-core (supply) shocks of the late 1980s which pushed inflation up temporarily relative to core inflation.
Bjørnland, Hilde C (2000)
VAR Models in Macroeconomic Research
[Academic lecture]. Forelesningsserie i tidserieøkonometri.
Bjørnland, Hilde C (2000)
Detrending Methods and Stylized Facts of Business cycles in Norway
[Academic lecture]. First International Meeting on Economic Cycles.
Bjørnland, Hilde C (1998)
Economic Fluctuations in a Small Open Economy - Real versus Nominal Shocks
[Report]. Statistics Norway.
This paper analyses the role of real and nominal shocks in explaining business cycles in a small open economy like that of Norway. In particular, we study the sources behind real exchange rate fluctuations since the collapse of the Bretton Woods agreement. Imposing long run restrictions implied by economic theory on a structural vector autoregression (VAR) model containing GDP, unemployment (or price), real wage and the real exchange rate, four structural shocks are identified; Velocity, fiscal, productivity and labour supply shocks. The model is also augmented to allow for oil price shocks. The identified shocks and their impulse responses are consistent with an open economy (Keynesian) model of economic fluctuations, and highlights the exchange rate as a transmission mechanism in a small open and energy based economy. Especially, I have found a plausible sequence of shocks (productivity shocks in the 1970s, velocity shocks in the mid-1980s, productivity and labour supply shocks in the late 1980s, and velocity and fiscal shocks in the early 1990s), which help to explain the evolution of GDP, unemployment, price, real wage and the real exchange rate. The results are robust to alternative specifications of the model and are stable over the sample.
Bjørnland, Hilde C (1998)
Identifying Domestic and Imported Core Inflation
[Academic lecture]. Annual Congress of the European Economic Association.
Bjørnland, Hilde C (1997)
Business Cycle Fluctuations in a Small Open Economy - Real versus Nominal Shocks
[Academic lecture]. Third International Conference On Financial Econometrics.
Akademisk grad
År
Akademisk institusjon
Grad
1998
University of Oslo
Ph.D Dr. Oecon.
1992
London School of Economics
Master of Science
1991
Heriot-Watt University
B.A.
Arbeidserfaring
År
Arbeidsgiver
Tittel
2020 - Present
International Association of Applied Econometrics (IAAE)
Professor
2008 - Present
BI Norwegian Business School
Professor
2004 - Present
Norges Bank
Scientific advisor to the Research Department (part time)
