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Canova, Fabio
(2024)
Should we trust cross sectional multiplier estimates?
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Harmenberg, Karl
(2024)
A simple theory of Pareto-distributed earnings
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Cross, Jamie; Hoogerheide, Lennart, Labonne, Paul & van Dijk, Herman K.
(2024)
Bayesian mode inference for discrete distributions in economics and finance
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Godøy, Anna Aasen; Haaland, Venke Furre, Huitfeldt, Ingrid Marie Schaumburg & Votruba, Mark E
(2024)
Hospital Queues, Patient Health, and Labor Supply
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Straume, Hans-Martin
(2024)
Buyers in Norwegian salmon exports: Structure and trade margins
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Stauskas, Ovidijus
(2024)
Cross-section Bootstrap for CCE regressions
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Fiva, Jon H. & Nedregård, Oda
(2024)
How Does Party Discipline Affect Legislative Behavior? Evidence from Within-Term Variation in Lame-Duck Status
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Galle, Simon & Lorentzen, Linnea
(2024)
The unequal effects of trade and automation across local labor markets
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Oglend, Atle; Asche, Frank & Straume, Hans-Martin
(2024)
Rent formation and distortions due to quotas in biological production processes
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Foldnes, Njål; Moss, Jonas & Grønneberg, Steffen
(2024)
Improved Goodness of Fit Procedures for Structural Equation Models
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Grønneberg, Steffen & Irmer, Julien
(2024)
Non-parametric Regression Among Factor Scores: Motivation and Diagnostics for Nonlinear Structural Equation Models
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Gola, Pawel
(2024)
On the Importance of Social Status for Occupational Sorting
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Vantaggiato, Francesca; Murdoch, Zuzana, Kassim, Hussein, Geys, Benny & Connolly, Sara Jane
(2024)
Intra-organizational Mobility and Employees’ Work-related Contact Patterns: Evidence from Panel Data in the European Commission
Journal of public administration research and theory.
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Geys, Benny; Lægreid, Per, Murdoch, Zuzana & Yackee, Susan Webb
(2024)
I’m a Survivor: Political Dynamics in Bureaucratic Elites’ Partisan Identification
American Political Science Review.
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Bhuller, Manudeep & Sigstad, Henrik
(2024)
2SLS with multiple treatments
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Oglend, Atle; Asche, Frank & Straume, Hans-Martin
(2024)
Crisis averted: Cross-market reallocation during the great trade collapse
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Fagereng, Andreas; Onshuus, Helene & Torstensen, Kjersti Næss
(2024)
The consumption expenditure response to unemployment: Evidence from Norwegian households
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Campos-Martins, Susana & Sucarrat, Genaro
(2024)
Modeling Nonstationary Financial Volatility with the R Package tvgarch
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Fiva, Jon H.; Izzo, Federica & Tukiainen, Janne
(2024)
The gatekeeper's dilemma: Political selection or team effort
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Labonne, Paul
(2024)
Asymmetric uncertainty: Nowcasting using skewness in real-time data
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Cox, Gary W.; Fiva, Jon H. & King, Max-Emil Mohn
(2024)
Bound by Borders: Voter Mobilization Through Social Networks
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Bjørnland, Hilde C & Zhulanova Skretting, Julia
(2024)
The shale oil boom and the US economy: Spillovers and time-varying effects
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Schönhage, Nanna Lauritz & Geys, Benny
(2024)
Partisanship, blame avoidance behaviours and voter reactions to allegations of political misconduct
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Kost, Dominique; Kopperud, Karoline, Buch, Robert, Kuvaas, Bård & Olsson, Ulf Henning
(2023)
The competing influence of psychological job control on family-to-work conflict
Journal of Occupational and Organizational Psychology, 96(2), p. 351-377.
Doi:
10.1111/joop.12426
Vis sammendrag
Psychological job control has typically been negatively related to work-to-family and family-to-work conflict. Based on the job demand-resource model and boundary theory, we argue that psychological job control may indirectly be positively related to family-to-work conflict by both increasing supplemental work, that is, the rate of engagement in work outside of formal working hours without receiving compensation aided by mobile technology, and work-to-family conflict. We hypothesize that this proposed positive indirect relationship will be lower among employees who perceive a high segmentation norm at their workplace. Based on a two-wave study of 4518 employees, we obtained support for a serial moderated mediation model that suggests a dual effect of psychological job control on family-to-work conflict, such that psychological job control was positively associated with family-to-work conflict through supplemental work and work-to-family conflict at low levels of segmentation norms. By examining the dual effects of psychological job control, this study aims to further understand the mechanisms involved in determining whether and when psychological job control, together with supplemental work, encourages employees to uphold or cross boundaries between work and nonwork domains. Our findings imply that psychological job control can both be a resource and a demand depending on the levels of segmentation norms.
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Moss, Jonas & Grønneberg, Steffen
(2023)
Partial Identification of Latent Correlations with Ordinal Data
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The polychoric correlation is a popular measure of association for ordinal data. It estimates a latent correlation, i.e., the correlation of a latent vector. This vector is assumed to be bivariate normal, an assumption that cannot always be justified. When bivariate normality does not hold, the polychoric correlation will not necessarily approximate the true latent correlation, even when the observed variables have many categories. We calculate the sets of possible values of the latent correlation when latent bivariate normality is not necessarily true, but at least the latent marginals are known. The resulting sets are called partial identification sets, and are shown to shrink to the true latent correlation as the number of categories increase. Moreover, we investigate partial identification under the additional assumption that the latent copula is symmetric, and calculate the partial identification set when one variable is ordinal and another is continuous. We show that little can be said about latent correlations, unless we have impractically many categories or we know a great deal about the distribution of the latent vector. An open-source R package is available for applying our results.
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Garibaldi, Pietro; Moen, Espen Rasmus & Pissarides, Christopher A.
(2023)
The SAM Approach to Epidemic Models
Vis sammendrag
We discuss the connections between epidemiology models and the search and matching (SAM) approach and draw conclusions about modeling the trade-offs between lockdowns and disease spread. We review the pre-COVID epidemics literature, which was mainly by epidemiologists, and the post-COVID surge in economics papers that use meeting technologies to model the trade-offs. We argue that modeling the decentralized equilibrium with economic trade-offs gives rise to substantially different results from the earlier epidemics literature, but policy action is still welfare-improving because of several externalities.
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Lambais, Guilherme & Sigstad, Henrik
(2023)
Judicial subversion: The effects of political power on court outcomes
Vis sammendrag
Are politicians in power treated more leniently in court? We show that Brazilian mayoral candidates charged with misconduct are 65 percent less likely to be convicted if they narrowly win the election. Politicians play no direct role in the judges’ careers, suggesting that formal independence does not completely insulate the judiciary from political influence. The effect is driven by districts with few judges and by judges with higher career instability.
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Irarrazabal Flores, Alfonso; Ma, Lin & Parra-Alvarez, Juan Carlos
(2023)
Optimal asset allocation for commodity sovereign wealth funds
Vis sammendrag
This paper studies the dynamic asset allocation problem faced by an infinitively lived commodity-based sovereign wealth fund under incomplete markets. Assuming that the fund receives a non-tradable stream of commodity revenues until a predetermined date, the optimal consumption and investment strategies are state and time-dependent. Using data from the Norwegian Petroleum Fund, we find that the optimal demand for equity should decrease gradually from 60% to 40% over the next 60 years. However, the solution is particularly sensitive to the correlation between oil and stock price changes. We also estimate wealth-equivalent welfare losses, relative to the optimal rule, when following alternative suboptimal investment rules.
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Pettersen, Ingrid Kristine; Asche, Frank, Bronnmann, Julia, Sogn-Grundvåg, Geir & Straume, Hans-Martin
(2023)
Is capture-based aquaculture viable? The case of Atlantic cod in Norway
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Capture-based aquaculture (CBA) is an important branch of the aquaculture industry that differs from closed cycle farming in that the stocking material consists of captured wild fish or other aquatic organisms. By skipping the difficult early production stages of fish farming, producers can test whether assumed market advantages such as high quality and consistent supply result in higher prices – and whether these are high enough to incentivize further development of CBA and eventually close the production cycle. CBA-initiatives can also be supported by different policy measures to stimulate the activity. Since these measures involve costs, it is important to know at what level and for how long these measures should be implemented to promote economically sustainable CBA activities. We study CBA of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) in Norway and find an average price premium of 26% compared to wild harvested cod, but with large interannual variation. However, declining quantities of cod from CBA following reductions in a quota bonus scheme to stimulate activity, indicates that the price premium is not sufficiently large to incentivize further development of the CBA branch of the Norwegian cod industry.
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Agrell, Christian; Dahl, Kristina Rognlien & Hafver, Andreas
(2023)
Optimal sequential decision making with probabilistic digital twins
Vis sammendrag
In this study, we present a formal defnition of the probabilistic digital twin
(PDT). Digital twins are emerging in many industries, typically consisting of
simulation models and data associated with a specifc physical system. In order to
defne probabilistic digital twins, we discuss how epistemic uncertainty can be
treated using measure theory, by modelling epistemic information via sigma-algebras.
A gentle introduction to the necessary mathematical theory is provided
throughout the paper, together with a number of examples to illustrate the core
concepts. We then introduce the problem of optimal sequential decision making.
That is, when the outcome of each decision may inform the next. We discuss how
this problem may be solved theoretically, and the current limitations that prohibit
most practical applications. As a numerically tractable alternative, we propose a
generic approximate solution using deep reinforcement learning together with
neural networks defined on sets. We illustrate the method on a practical problem,
considering optimal information gathering for the estimation of a failure
probability.
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Sørensen, Rune Jørgen
(2023)
Educated politicians and government efficiency: Evidence from Norwegian local government
Vis sammendrag
The paper studies the effect of politicians’ education levels on government efficiency. Using data on Norwegian local government, the paper measures efficiency by DEA-productivity indicators and comprehensive indicators of service production. The identification of causal effects exploits close (within-list) elections to design an instrumental variable for council shares with higher education.
Consistent with survey data, the estimates show that better-educated politicians induce higher levels of efficiency, particularly for old-age care services. A similar empirical strategy indicates that political experience has small efficiency effects. Educational misrepresentation has modest effects on fiscal allocations and is mostly canceled out by the efficiency gains.
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Aastveit, Knut Are; Albuquerque, Bruno & Anundsen, André Kallåk
(2023)
Changing Supply Elasticities and Regional Housing Booms
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Developments in U.S. house prices over the past decade mirror those of the 1996–2006 boom. Construction activity has, however, been weak. Using data for 254 U.S. metropolitan areas, we show that housing supply elasticities have fallen markedly in recent years. We find that housing supply elasticities have declined more in areas in which land-use regulation has tightened the most, and in areas that experienced the sharpest housing busts. Consistent with the declining housing supply elasticities, we find that monetary policy shocks have had a stronger effect on house prices during the past decade than during the previous boom. At the same time, building permits respond less.
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Brekke, Kurt Richard; Dalen, Dag Morten & Straume, Odd Rune
(2023)
The price of cost-effectiveness thresholds under therapeutic competition in pharmaceutical markets
Vis sammendrag
Health systems around world are increasingly adopting cost-effectiveness (CE) analysis to inform decisions about access and reimbursement. We study how CE thresholds imposed by a health plan for granting reimbursement affect drug producers’ pricing incentives and patients’ access to new drugs. Analysing a sequential pricing game between an incumbent drug producer and a potential entrant with a new drug, we show that CE thresholds may have adverse effects for payers and patients. A stricter CE threshold may induce the incumbent to switch pricing strategy from entry accommodation to entry deterrence, limiting patients’ access to the new drug. Otherwise, irrespective of whether entry is deterred or accommodated, a stricter CE threshold is never pro-competitive and may in fact facilitate a collusive outcome with higher prices of both drugs. Compared to a laissez-faire policy, the use of CE thresholds when an incumbent monopolist is challenged by therapeutic substitutes can only increase the surplus of a health plan if it leads to entry deterrence. In this case the price reduction by the incumbent necessary to deter entry outweighs the health loss to patients who do not get access to the new drug.
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Mork, Knut Anton; Harang, Fabian Andsem, Trønnes, Haakon Andreas & Bjerketvedt, Vegard Skonseng
(2023)
Dynamic spending and portfolio decisions with a soft social norm
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We explore the implications of a preference ordering for an investor-consumer with a strong preference for keeping consumption above an exogenous social norm, but who is willing to tolerate occasional dips below it. We do this by splicing two CRRA preference orderings, one with high curvature below the norm and the other with low curvature at or above it. We find this formulation appealing for many endowment funds and sovereign wealth funds, including the Norwegian Government Pension Fund Global, which inspired our research. We derive an analytical solution, which we use to describe key properties of the policy functions for consumption and portfolio allocation. We find that annual spending should not only be significantly lower than the expected financial return, but mostly also procyclical. In particular, financial losses should, as a rule, be followed by larger than proportional spending cuts, except when some smoothing is needed to keep spending from falling too far below the social norm. Yet, at very low wealth levels, spending should be kept particularly low in order to build sufficient wealth to raise consumption above the social norm. Financial risk taking should also be modest and procyclical, so that the investor sometimes may want to “buy at the top” and “sell at the bottom.” Many of these features are shared by habit-formation models and other models with some lower bound for consumption. However, our specification is more flexible and thus more easily adaptable to actual fund management. The nonlinearity of the policy functions may present challenges regarding delegation to professional managers. However, simpler rules of thumb with constant or slowly moving equity share and consumption-wealth ratio can reach almost the same expected discounted utility. Nevertheless, the constant levels will then look very different from the implications of expected CRRA utility or Epstein–Zin preferences in that consumption is much lower.
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Geys, Benny; Connolly, Sara, Kassim, Hussein & Murdoch, Zuzana
(2023)
Staff reallocations and employee attitudes towards organizational aims: evidence using longitudinal data from the European Commission
Vis sammendrag
Organizational reforms often involve substantial staff reallocations, creating both winners and losers within the same organization. We argue that allocating less (more) staff to a department signals a decrease (increase) in organizational support towards that department and its employees. We hypothesize that staff members respond to this signal by adjusting their support for key organizational aims and their plans to stay in the organization. We test these propositions using a two-wave survey conducted within the European Commission. Consistent with theoretical arguments, we find that staff (re)allocations trigger distinct reactions among winners and losers as well as across staff types.
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Geys, Benny; Lægreid, Per, Murdoch, Zuzana & Trondal, Jarle
(2023)
The impact of terrorism on civil servants: Longitudinal evidence from the July 22, 2011 attack in Norway
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Building on a growing literature assessing the societal impact of terrorism, this article analyzes whether and how a terror attack targeting public institutions affects civil servants in their day-to-day work. This is an important question to enhance our understanding of how terrorism can (or cannot) affect the operation of core government functions. Theoretically, the study contributes to a broader account of the political consequences of terrorism by combining insights from social identity and organization theory. Empirically, we exploit a two-wave survey fielded before and after the 2011 terror attack in Norway, which allows us to study the same civil servants (N = 186) before and after this event. While terrorists wish to disrupt public institutions, our findings indicate that a terror attack targeting core government institutions strengthens internal cohesion and increases attention to political signals in work tasks. We discuss implications of these effects for the functioning of democratic government.
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Xiao, Jiaqi; Karavias, Yiannis, Juodis, Artūras, Sarafidis, Vasilis & Ditzen, Jan
(2023)
Improved tests for Granger noncausality in panel data
Vis sammendrag
In this article, we introduce the xtgrangert command, which implements the panel Granger noncausality testing approach developed by Juodis, Karavias, and Sarafidis (2021, Empirical Economics 60: 93–112). This test offers superior size and power performance to existing tests, which stem from the use of a pooled estimator that has a faster NT−−−√
convergence rate. The test has several other useful properties: it can be used in multivariate systems; it has power against both homogeneous and heterogeneous alternatives; and it allows for cross-section dependence and cross-section heteroskedasticity.
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Gaasland, Ivar
(2023)
A Journey from Classical to Modern Trade Theory
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nternational trade theory has since the mid-1970s experienced a rapid development, motivated by empirical observations that seemed inconsistent with classical comparative advantage theory. Under comparative advantage, countries trade to takes advantage of their differences, i.e., countries exchange products across industries. What could then explain the increasing exchange of similar products (e.g., beer brands) between similar countries (e.g., Denmark and Sweden)? And why is trade dominated by relatively few firms, while most firms are confined to their home market? This article provides a survey of modern trade theory that illuminates such observations. Trade increases market size which makes it easier to exploit economics of scale in production of differentiated products within an industry. The theory demonstrates that this generates gains from trade decoupled from comparative advantage. A seminal feature of modern theory is that production and trade are modeled at the firm-level. By introducing differences in productivity between firms, it is possible to study characteristics of firms that operate in international markets. Recent access to trade data at the transaction level has opened a new universe for empirical studies in this area. This article presents some important contributions of the modern trade theory. In conclusion, features of the Norwegian industry structure are discussed and related to modern trade theory.
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Eggum, Terje & Røed Larsen, Erling
(2023)
Is the Housing Market an Inequality Generator?
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Andvig, Jens Christopher & Maurseth, Per Botolf
(2023)
Intellectual Property Rights and Global Distribution – TRIPS, Soccer and Pharmaceutical Industry
Vis sammendrag
The article explores two forms of intellectual property rights: patents in the pharmaceutical industry and international broadcasting rights in the football industry. In both cases, global markets evolve demanding global forms of regulation. The outcome is extreme concentration of high incomes. Adjustments in the allocation of property rights may contribute to significant leveling of incomes globally and, possibly, improved welfare.
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Maurseth, Per Botolf & Medin, Hege
(2023)
Firms, International Trade and the Internet
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This study of the relationship between internet use and international trade finds that in many low and middle income countries, firms are more likely to engage in exports or imports if they use the internet as a communication tool. The effects are large: probit regressions indicate that trade participation is approximately 50% greater for firms that use the internet as a means of communication compared with those that do not. This holds true for exports as well as for imports. Our findings further suggest that the association between trade participation and the use of the internet is particularly important for large firms and for firms with foreign owners. Our findings have important implications. In a globalized economy, firms’ ability to engage in international trade is crucial for success or failure. Countries’ policies to support development of the internet are therefore potentially very important for their development prospects.
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Canova, Fabio & Sæterhagen Paulsen, Kenneth
(2023)
Symbolic stationarization of dynamic equilibrium models
Vis sammendrag
Dynamic equilibrium models are specified to track persistent time series. Thus, unit roots are typically introduced as exogenous driving forces and the optimality conditions adjusted to produce a stationary solution. This adjustment step requires tedious algebra and often leads to algebraic mistakes, especially in complicated models. We propose an algorithm employing differentiation rules that simplifies the step of rendering non-stationary models stationary. It is easy to implement and works when trends are stochastic or deterministic, exogenous or endogenously determined. Three examples illustrate the mechanics and the properties of the approach. A comparison with existing methods is provided (97 words).
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Bergholt, Drago; Røisland, Øistein, Sveen, Tommy & Torvik, Ragnar
(2023)
Monetary policy when export revenues drop
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We study how monetary policy should respond to shocks that permanently alter the steady state structure of the economy. In such a case monetary policy affects not only the short run misallocations due to nominal rigidities, but also relative prices which stimulate reallocation of capital. We consider a permanent and negative shock to export revenues that requires a larger traded sector and a smaller non-traded sector in the new steady state. This reallocation calls for a change in relative prices during the transition, but may also lead to a period of high unemployment. We show how an appropriate monetary policy could mitigate the welfare costs of the transition by allowing the exchange rate to depreciate, and thereby allowing inflation to increase in the short run. Traditional monetary policy regimes, such as inflation targeting or a fixed exchange rate, would imply high unemployment and inefficiently slow transition. Stabilizing nominal wage growth, in contrast, would be close to the welfare-optimal monetary policy.
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Pandey, Rudresh; Asche, Frank, Misund, Bård, Nygård, Rune, Adewumi, Olugbenga Michael, Straume, Hans-Martin & Zhang, Dengjun
(2023)
Production growth, company size, and concentration: The case of salmon
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Reiter, Michael; Sveen, Tommy & Weinke, Lutz
(2023)
Idiosyncratic Shocks, Lumpy Investment and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism
Vis sammendrag
Standard (S, s) models of lumpy investment allow us to match many
aspects of the micro data, but it is well known that the implied interest rate sen-
sitivity of investment is unrealistically large. In fact, the micro-level lumpiness in
investment puts empirical discipline on the modeling of investment decisions, and
this makes it hard to explain the monetary policy transmission mechanism.
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Oglend, Atle; Asche, Frank, Pincinato, Ruth Beatriz & Straume, Hans-Martin
(2023)
Price dispersion and the stability of trade*
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Brekke, Kurt Richard; Dalen, Dag Morten & Straume, Odd Rune
(2023)
Competing with precision: incentives for developing predictive biomarker tests
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Korotov, Sergey & Vatne, Jon Eivind
(2023)
On Dihedral Angle Sums of Prisms and Hexahedra
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Various angle characteristics are used (e.g. in finite element methods or computer graphics) when evaluating the quality of computational meshes which may consist, in the three-dimensional case, of tetrahedra, prisms, hexahedra and pyramids. Thus, it is of interest to derive (preferably tight) bounds for dihedral angle sums, i.e. sums of angles between faces, of such mesh elements. For tetrahedra this task was solved by Gaddum in 1952. For pyramids, this was resolved by Korotov, Lund and Vatne in 2022. In this paper, we compute tight bounds for the remaining two cases, hexahedra and prisms.
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Straume, Hans-Martin; Asche, Frank, Oglend, Atle, Gaasland, Ivar, Pettersen, Ingrid Kristine & Sogn-Grundvåg, Geir
(2023)
The structure of Norwegian seafood trade
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While seafood is a highly traded commodity, lack of data has largely prevented examination of the firms and industries that are conducting the actual transactions. In this paper we use highly disaggregated data to provide an overview of the seafood exports from Norway, the world’s 2nd largest seafood exporting country, and a country where fisheries as well as aquaculture are important industries. The industry has a global reach with Norwegian seafood reaching 172 different countries in the period 2016–2020. While there are as many as 437 different exporting firms, this is relatively few firms compared to the 11,024 different buyers that import Norwegian seafood. There is significant heterogeneity in the export sector from very small firms handling only a few products to very large firms handling a large variety of products. The average firm is quite specialized and serves only 9 markets. However, there are also a handful of large exporters who ship products from all three main sectors in the Norwegian seafood industry to a large number of markets. The 10% largest companies make up 39% of the total export value and provide significant synergies between the aquaculture, pelagic and whitefish sectors.
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Røed Larsen, Erling
(2023)
House price seasonality, market activity, and the December discount
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In Norway, house prices tend to drop in December. This regularity is persistent across regions and over time. I exploit a transaction data set with high temporal granularity to document and estimate the size of the December discount. I control for a composition effect using a hedonic model and I control for unobserved heterogeneity by using repeat sales and involving ask prices and appraisal values. By segmenting into submarkets, I search for determinants of price seasonality. The evidence suggests that the December effect is linked to time-on-market for each unit and transaction volumes within each submarkets.
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Hunting, Martin Henrik; Hjort, Ingrid & Gjefsen, Hege Marie
(2023)
COVID-19 among guestworkers in Norway
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Guestworkers in Norway is a group we have little knowledge about, even though this group makes up nearly 4% of the Norwegian workforce in high seasons during a normal year. During the COVID-19 pandemic, migrant guestworkers in Norway were the subject of strict infection prevention measures, but there is little knowledge about actual infections in this group compared to residents. In this analysis, we study whether infection rates were higher among guestworkers compared to a relevant comparison group in the general population. A guestworker is a non-resident migrant worker with a temporary id-number (d number) and active employment. Our study gives valuable information on whether additional precautionary measures for this group would have been justified. In this paper we use employment data from the State Register of Employers and Employees (Aa-registeret) from April 1st, 2020 to October 1st, 2021, together with results from PCR tests. We compare the probability of infection among guestworkers in Norway with a group of employees who are permanent residents, controlling for gender, age, occupation and local infection rate. We find a lower confirmed incidence of COVID-19 among guestworkers, and no difference in positivity rate.
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Garibaldi, Pietro; Moen, Espen Rasmus & Pissarides, Christopher A.
(2023)
Static and dynamic inefficiencies in an optimizing model of epidemics
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Several externalities arise when agents shield optimally to avoid infection during an epidemic. We classify externalities into static and dynamic and compare the decentralized and optimal solutions when agents derive utility from social interaction. For low infection costs agents shield too little; for high costs they shield too much because of a “rat race to shield”: they delay social action until other agents contract the disease and society reaches herd immunity. Other externalities drive more wedges between the private and social outcomes. The expectation of a fully effective vaccine that ends the disease faster changes results, reversing excessive shielding.
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Grytten, Jostein Ivar; Skau, Irene & Sørensen, Rune Jørgen
(2023)
Fertility and immigration: Do immigrant mothers hand down their fertility pattern to the next generation? Evidence from Norway
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De Vos, Ignace; Everaert, Gerdie & Sarafidis, Vasilis
(2023)
A method to evaluate the rank condition for CCE estimators
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Straume, Hans-Martin; Asche, Frank & Øglend, Atle
(2023)
Intermediaries in Norwegian salmon exports
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Straume, Hans-Martin; Asche, Frank, Landazuri-Tveteraas, Ursula, Misund, Bård, Pettersen, Ingrid Kristine & Zhang, Dengjun
(2023)
Product forms and price transmission in major European salmon markets
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Geys, Benny & Sørensen, Rune Jørgen
(2023)
A Post-politics Earnings Penalty? Evidence from Politicians’ Life-time Income Trajectories (1970-2019)
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Politicians are commonly believed to gain financially from holding and/or having held office. We argue that there may often also be economic downsides to pursuing a political career, and investigate whether and when politicians can(not) capitalize on their political experience. We thereby study both entry into and exit from political office, and directly compare the returns to politics across government levels and types of politicians. Empirically, we build on detailed information from Norwegian administrative register data over the period 1970-2019 to study individual-level income developments before, during and after a political career at the national and local levels (covering nearly 22,000 individuals and 700,000 person-years). Using an event-study methodology, we show that politicians on average witness a significant income boost during their time in office. In sharp contrast, leaving political office is on average associated with a substantial drop in income, which generally outweighs the income gain from entry into office. These findings suggest that most politicians face a net present value loss from holding office.
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Harang, Fabian Andsem; Tindel, Samy & Wang, Xiaohua
(2023)
Volterra Equations Driven by Rough Signals 3: Probabilistic Construction of the Volterra Rough Path for Fractional Brownian Motions
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Based on the recent development of the framework of Volterra rough paths (Harang
and Tindel in Stoch Process Appl 142:34–78, 2021), we consider here the probabilistic
construction of the Volterra rough path associated to the fractional Brownian motion
with H > 1
2 and for the standard Brownian motion. The Volterra kernel k(t,s) is
allowed to be singular, and behaving similar to |t − s|
−γ for some γ ≥ 0. The
construction is done in both the Stratonovich and Itô senses. It is based on a modified
Garsia–Rodemich–Romsey lemma which is of interest in its own right, as well as
tools from Malliavin calculus. A discussion of challenges and potential extensions is
provided.
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Geys, Benny; Murdoch, Zuzana & Sørensen, Rune Jørgen
(2023)
Public Employees as Elected Politicians: Assessing Direct and Indirect Substantive Effects of Passive Representation
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In many countries, public sector employees are eligible to hold political offices during their employment as civil servants. This often triggers conflict-of-interest concerns that elected public employees might sway policies to their professional benefit. In this article, we build on representation scholarship in political science and public administration to assess such substantive effects of public employees’ political representation using detailed Norwegian administrative register and survey data (2003–19). Our main results indicate that public employees differ little from other members within their party in terms of ideology and policy preferences. They do, however, appear to move their party slightly toward the left of the political spectrum, consistent with preference spillover effects induced by heightened public sector representation. Finally, using an instrumental variable approach exploiting close elections, we find that political representation of public employees is associated with at best modest public spending, employment, and wage effects at the local level.
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Carvalho, Bruno P.; Custódio, Claudia, Geys, Benny, Mendes, Diogo & Peralta, Susana
(2023)
Information, perceptions, and electoral behaviour of young voters: A randomised controlled experiment
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The way people absorb and process politically relevant information is central to their subsequent political behaviour (in terms of turnout and vote choice). Nonetheless, little is known about how young voters – who might be more impressionable than more experienced voters – respond to the provision of such information. In this article, we design a between-subject randomised controlled trial that exposes a sample of university students to positive, neutral or negative information about central government performance before the 2017 Portuguese local elections. We find that young voters update their perceptions more when exposed to negative news. This negativity bias is stronger for first-time voters. We also find that negative information significantly affects turnout of initially undecided young voters. Our results imply that sensitivity to information is heterogeneous and that some young voters may be prone to manipulation through the provision of negative news.
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Schönhage, Nanna Lauritz; Bækgaard, Martin & Geys, Benny
(2023)
The politics of distributing blame and credit: Evidence from a survey experiment with Norwegian local politicians
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How do politicians attribute responsibility for good and poor policy outcomes across multiple stakeholders in a policy field where they themselves can affect service provision? Such ‘diffusion’ decisions are crucial to understand the political calculations underlying the allocation of blame and credit by office-holders. We study this issue using a between-subjects survey experiment fielded among local politicians in Norway (N = 1073). We find that local politicians attribute responsibility for outcomes in primary education predominantly to school personnel (regardless of whether performance is good or bad) and do not engage in local party-political blame games. However, we show that local politicians are keen to attribute responsibility for poor outcomes to higher levels of government, especially when these are unaligned with the party of the respondent. These findings suggest that vertical partisan blame-shifting prevails over horizontal partisan blame games in settings with a political consensus culture.
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Heggedal, Tom-Reiel; Helland, Leif & Moen, Espen Rasmus
(2023)
SEQUENTIAL PRICE SETTING: THEORY AND EVIDENCE FROM A LAB EXPERIMENT
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In the Varian (1980; American Economic Review 70(4) (1980), 651–59) model of price competition, a change from simultaneous to sequential price setting dramatically changes equilibrium strategies, and in the unique symmetric, equilibrium prices are pushed up to the monopoly price. There also exists an asymmetric equilibrium with lower average prices. Our main contribution is to test these predictions in the laboratory. Our data strongly support the qualitative model predictions. However, a fraction of players set low prices in accordance with the asymmetric equilibrium, which is puzzling. We show that the puzzle to a large extent can be resolved by introducing competitive preferences in the model.
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Cui, Guowei; Sarafidis, Vasilis & Yamagata, Takashi
(2023)
IV estimation of spatial dynamic panels with interactive effects: large sample theory and an application on bank attitude towards risk
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This paper develops a new instrumental variables estimator for spatial, dynamic
panels with interactive effects under large N and T asymptotics. For this class of models, most
approaches available in the literature are based on quasi-maximum likelihood estimation. The
approach put forward here is appealing from both a theoretical and a practical point of view
for a number of reasons. First, it is linear in the parameters of interest and computationally
inexpensive. Second, the IV estimator is free from asymptotic bias. Third, the approach can
accommodate endogenous regressors as long as external instruments are available. The IV
estimator is consistent and asymptotically normal as N, T → ∞ , such that N/T → c , where
0 < c < ∞ . We study the determinants of risk attitude of banking institutions. The results
show that the capital regulation introduced by the Dodd–Frank Act has succeeded in influencing
banks’ behaviour.
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Gilbert, Richard; Riis, Christian & Riis, Erlend S.
(2023)
Innovation, Antitrust Enforcement, and the Inverted-U
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Juodis, Artūras & Sarafidis, Vasilis
(2023)
New results on asymptotic properties of likelihood estimators with persistent data for small and large T
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This paper revisits the panel autoregressive model, with a primary emphasis on the unit-root case. We study a class of misspecified Random effects Maximum Likelihood (mRML) estimators when T is either fixed or large, and N tends to infinity. We show that in the unit-root case, for any fixed value of T, the log-likelihood function of the mRML estimator has a single mode at unity as
. Furthermore, the Hessian matrix of the corresponding log-likelihood function is non-singular, unless the scaled variance of the initial condition is exactly zero. As a result, mRML is consistent and asymptotically normally distributed as N tends to infinity. In the large-T setup, it is shown that mRML is asymptotically equivalent to the bias-corrected FE estimator of Hahn and Kuersteiner (Econometrica 70(4):1639–1657, 2002). Moreover, under certain conditions, its Hessian matrix remains non-singular.
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Kreiberg, David
(2023)
A confirmatory factor analysis approach for addressing the errors-in-variables problem with colored output noise
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Over the years, errors-in-variables (EIV) system identification has attracted considerable research interest. Among the many proposed approaches for identifying EIV models is confirmatory factor analysis (CFA), here referred to as EIV-CFA. This study extends previous research by presenting a EIV-CFA modeling framework that allows for colored output noise. Considerable attention is paid to the theoretical aspects of the minimum distance (MD) estimator. The finite sample performance of the MD estimator is briefly evaluated using simulation. The results suggest that model parameters are well estimated.
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Røisland, Øistein; Sveen, Tommy & Torvik, Ragnar
(2023)
Samspillet mellom penge- og finanspolitikken i en liten, åpen økonomi
Samfunnsøkonomen, 137(6), p. 41-52.
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Bechtold, Florian; Harang, Fabian Andsem & Rana, Nimit
(2023)
Non-linear Young equations in the plane and pathwise regularization by noise for the stochastic wave equation
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We study pathwise regularization by noise for equations on the plane in the spirit of the framework outlined by Catellier and Gubinelli (Stoch Process Appl 126(8):2323–2366, 2016). To this end, we extend the notion of non-linear Young equations to a two dimensional domain and prove existence and uniqueness of such equations. This concept is then used in order to prove regularization by noise for stochastic equations on the plane. The statement of regularization by noise is formulated in terms of the regularity of the local time associated to the perturbing stochastic field. For this, we provide two quantified example: a fractional Brownian sheet and the sum of two one-parameter fractional Brownian motions. As a further illustration of our regularization results, we also prove well-posedness of a 1D non-linear wave equation with a noisy boundary given by fractional Brownian motions. A discussion of open problems and further investigations is provided.
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Geys, Benny
(2023)
Fancy Seeing You Here…Again: Uncovering Individual-Level Panel Data in Repeated Cross-Sectional Surveys
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Many theories in Public Administration and Public Management explicitly relate to changes over time in the attitudes, values, perceptions, and/or motivations of public-sector employees. Examining such theories using (repeated) cross-sectional datasets may lead to biased inferences and an inability to expose credible causal relationships. As developing individual-level panel datasets is costly and time-consuming, this article presents a method to make better use of existing surveys fielded repeatedly among the same respondent pool without individual identifiers. Specifically, it sets out an approach to create a system of unique identifiers using information about respondents' background characteristics available within the original data. The result is a panel dataset that allows tracking (a subset of) individual respondents across time. The article discusses issues of feasibility, credibility as well as ethical considerations. The methodology has further practical value by highlighting data characteristics that can help minimize identifiability of respondents while creating public-release datasets.
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Catellier, Rémi & Harang, Fabian Andsem
(2023)
Pathwise regularization of the stochastic heat equation with multiplicative noise through irregular perturbation
Annales de l'I.H.P. Probabilites et statistiques, 59(3), p. 1572-1609.
Doi:
10.1214/22-AIHP1302
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Existence and uniqueness of solutions to the stochastic heat equation with multiplicative spatial noise is studied. In the spirit of pathwise regularization by noise, we show that a perturbation by a sufficiently irregular continuous path establish wellposedness of such equations, even when the drift and diffusion coefficients are given as generalized functions or distributions. In addition we prove regularity of the averaged field associated to a Lévy fractional stable motion, and use this as an example of a perturbation regularizing the multiplicative stochastic heat equation.