The article introduces a new dataset on terrorist attack activity by jihadis in Western Europe. The dataset was built over nearly two decades at the Norwegian Defence Research Establishment. It records not only attacks that were launched, but also plots that were foiled by counterterrorism. The rationale behind the dataset is that analyses based on launched attacks may misrepresent the scale and nature of terrorism. The article shows that if we were to measure the jihadi threat to Europe by attacks only we would miss out on 58.2% of the total attack activity. We also show that while attack data signify a trend towards small attacks by individuals, these data hide the fact that terror networks persist in plotting big attacks that get foiled. We discuss how analyses based on attacks only may distort comparative analyses of different types of terrorists across countries, as well as causal analyses of terrorism drivers. By including foiled plots we gain a fuller picture of terrorism. The Jihadi Plots in Europe Dataset allows the gauging of different aspects of the threat from Al-Qaida and Islamic State in Europe. The dataset documents when and where terror plots occur, whether or not they result in attacks, and different types of information about perpetrators and how they operate. The Dataset offers a reliable overview of jihadi terrorism in Europe for research and policy.
Nesser, Petter & Gråtrud, Henrik (2019)
When Conflicts Do Not Overspill: The Case of Jordan
How can vulnerable states adjacent to countries embroiled in civil war avoid conflict contagion? Jordan has all the classic attributes highlighted in the literature as creating vulnerabilities susceptible to spillover. It adjoins Syria and Iraq where jihadists have operated freely. It has a weak economy, refugees pouring in from adjacent conflicts and is home to hundreds—if not thousands—of jihadists. Moreover, jihadists consider the Jordanian regime to be traitors—who conspire with the enemies of Islam—and they want to replace it with an Islamic state. However, as we show, very few jihadist attacks have happened in Jordan. We test three hypotheses for the limited spillover. Our analysis suggests a state policy that we dub “calibrated repression” is the most significant explanation. This means that Jordan protects against spillover by repressing jihadist attempts at infiltrating the kingdom and clamping down on local terrorist cells linked to the Islamic State while keeping other domestic jihadist elements in check through co-optation. The regime restrains the use of force against less acute threats and displays some leniency towards radicals when the situation allows. Our findings speak to the broader literature on spillover and offer insights into the understudied topic of mechanisms limiting spillover in high-risk environments.
Nesser, Petter (2018)
Islamist Terrorism in Europe, second edition
Nesser, Petter (2016)
Kommentar til BBC’s livefeed I forbindelse med Brusselangrepet (uten tittel).
Nesser, Petter & Lia, Brynjar (2016)
Jihadism in Norway: a Typology of Militant Networks in a Peripheral European Country
Jihadism in Norway has witnessed a huge shift from consisting primarily of foreign ethnically homogenous networks with a low capacity for mobilization, to the current situation where a loose country-wide network of domestic extremists have demonstrated a considerable capacity for foreign fighter recruitment over the past four years. In this article we introduce a typology for better understanding how jihadism takes root in Europe’s periphery.
Nesser, Petter; Stenersen, Anne & Oftedal, Emilie (2016)
Jihadi Terrorism in Europe: The IS-Effect
The article examines the extent to which Islamic State (IS) has affected jihadi terrorism in Europe. We look at the scope of attack activity, perpetrators and their networks, modus operandi and funding. For all the talk of a new threat we argue that, apart from scope, less is new than most assume. IS wants largely the same as al-Qaida did by attacking Europe. Their tactics are similar and their networks overlap in time and space. The core dynamics of the threat endure. It is premature to talk of a new paradigm in recruitment, but more terrorists are instructed online than before. Patterns in funding remain relatively stable, but there is an increase in plots financed from abroad. Despite military setbacks, IS remains a formidable terrorist actor, with territorial control, economic muscle and thousands of Europeans in its ranks. These things, combined with the group’s skillful social media usage, are exhausting European security services’ capacities. So is the refugee situation, which is exploited by IS to transfer personnel. If IS’s territorial control persists, we foresee attempts at large-scale operations, including attempts at using improvised chemical or radiological devices. If IS continues to lose ground, small-scale attacks by single actors will become even more frequent.
Nesser, Petter (2015)
Islamist Terrorism in Europe, A History
Nesser, Petter & Hegghammer, Thomas (2015)
Assessing Islamic State’s Commitment to Attacking the West
How much of a terrorist threat does the Islamic State (IS) pose to Western countries? This article looks at what IS has said and done with regard to attacks in the West. We examine IS statements and take stock of IS-related attack plots in Western Europe, North America, and Australia from January 2011 through June 2015 using a new dataset of jihadi plots and a new typology of links between organizations and attackers. IS appears to have had a decentralized attack strategy based on encouraging sympathiser attacks while not mounting centrally directed operations of their own. There have also been more plots involving only IS sympathisers than plots involving returned foreign fighters. However, the organization’s formidable resources and verbal hints at future attacks give reason for vigilance.
Lia, Brynjar & Nesser, Petter (2014)
Norske muslimske fremmedkrigere
(4) , s. 399- 416.
Nesser, Petter (2014)
Toward an increasingly heterogeneous threat: a chronology of jihadist terrorism in Europe 2008-2013
This article provides the most thorough overview yet of how jihadis have plotted terrorist attacks in Europe. Drawing on a database of 122 incidents, we review trends in weapon types, attack types and target types in the period 1994–2013. The overall finding is that jihadi terrorism in Europe is becoming more discriminate in its targeting while attack types and weapons are becoming progressively more diverse. The most likely scenarios in the coming three to five years are bomb attacks and armed assaults against sub-national entities, communities and individuals. A majority of the terrorist attacks will be limited in scope, but mass-casualty terrorism cannot be excluded. Foreign fighters from Syria are likely to influence the threat level in Europe, but we do not expect them to alter patterns in modus operandi dramatically.
This article examines, compares, and contrasts the ways in which "global jihadis" have trained for terrorism in Western Europe. Before the invasion of Afghanistan, the terrorists received training in Al Qaeda paramilitary camps. After invasion, they had to find alternative training methods and arenas. It is widely assumed that the Internet has taken over the role of the Afghan camps. The current survey suggests that the Internet's role as a "virtual training camp" might be overstated. Although the Net has become an important tool for terrorists on many levels, they maintain an urge to obtain real-life, military-style training in jihadi combat zones. Despite difficulties and risks, many of today's terrorists attend terrorist training facilities in Pakistan or other places. The main characteristic of training practices after the invasion of Afghanistan seems to be that, from an organizational perspective, the push for training and preparation comes from "below" rather than from "above.".
Nesser, Petter (2008)
Chronology of Jihadism in Western Europe 1994-2007: Planned, Prepared, and Executed Terrorist Attacks
Rett og Slett #45: IS-kvinnene – del I: Radikaliseringen
[Kronikk]
Nesser, Petter (2018)
Europe hasn’t won the war on terror
[Kronikk]
Nesser, Petter (2017)
Mange intervjuer i norsk og utenlandsk media (avis, tv, radio) om internasjonal jihadisme og IS
[Kronikk]
Nesser, Petter & Gerhardsen, Wenche (2016)
Hva trigger en terrorforsker?
[Kronikk]
Petter Nesser er ekspert på militant ekstremisme og radikalisering i Vest-Europa. Som historiker og seniorforsker ved FFI forsker han blant annet på terrorplott, altså både gjennomførte og planlagte terrorangrep.
Stenersen, Anne & Nesser, Petter (2015)
En klar økning i soloterrorisme
[Kronikk]
Nesser, Petter (2015)
Å kalle Molenbeek Europas terrorhovedstad, er i beste fall en overdrivelse
[Kronikk]
Nesser, Petter (2015)
Media Som Terrormål
[Kronikk]
Nesser, Petter (2015)
En eskalering av konflikten
[Kronikk]
Stenersen, Anne; Hegghammer, Thomas & Nesser, Petter (2014)
Kronikk: Hjelper politibevæpning mot terror?
[Kronikk]
Nesser, Petter (2014)
Mange intervju med norsk og internasjonal presse, avis, radio og tv
[Kronikk]
Nesser, Petter & Stenersen, Anne (2014)
Kronikk: Flere terrorplaner vil bli gjennomført i Europa
[Kronikk]
Nesser, Petter (2013)
Presseintervjuer, stor antall. Ukentlig, og i perioder daglig. Ikke mulighet til å registrer. Avis, radio, TV
[Kronikk]
Nesser, Petter & Stenersen, Anne (2011)
Arven etter Osama
[Kronikk]
Nesser, Petter (2006)
Spekulativt av FRP – igjen
[Kronikk]
Nesser, Petter (2004)
Spekulativt av Hagen
[Kronikk]
Nesser, Petter; Sitter, Nick & Sverdrup, Ulf (2025)
The International context of UK Radicalization Trends
Nesser, Petter (red.). The International context of UK Radicalization Trends
Nesser, Petter (2019)
Foiled plots: the untapped data resource in terrorism studies
[Conference Lecture]. Event
Nesser, Petter (2018)
Foredrag of europeisk jihadisme
[Conference Lecture]. Event
Nesser, Petter (2017)
Foredrag for Nansenskolen om europeisk jihadisme
[Lecture]. Event
Nesser, Petter (2017)
Terror i Europa: IS-effekten
[Popular Science Article].
Nesser, Petter (2017)
IS-terror i Europa: hvordan dannes terrorceller?
[Popular Science Article].
Nesser, Petter (2017)
Undervisning for Sjefskurset om europeisk jihadisme
[Lecture]. Event
Nesser, Petter (2016)
Islamist terrorism in Europe
[Conference Lecture]. Event
Nesser, Petter (2016)
Debunking Myths about European Jihad
[Conference Lecture]. Event
Nesser, Petter (2016)
The IS-threat to Europe: some preliminary observations
[Conference Lecture]. Event
Nesser, Petter (2016)
European Jihadism: Patterns in Terrorist Cell Formation and Behaviour
[Conference Lecture]. Event
Nesser, Petter (2016)
Islamist terrorism in Europe: Current Status
[Lecture]. Event
Nesser, Petter (2016)
The Future of Jihadi Terrorism in Europe[Dutch translation]
[Popular Science Article].
Nesser, Petter & Stenersen, Anne (2014)
Hvordan opererer terrorister?
[Conference Lecture]. Event
Nesser, Petter (2014)
Ekstremisme og terror i Europa og Norge
[Lecture]. Event
Nesser, Petter (2014)
Does secularization impact on violent radicalization?
[Conference Lecture]. Event
Nesser, Petter (2014)
Ekstremisme i sosiale medier
[Lecture]. Event
Nesser, Petter (2014)
Blowback from Syria in Europe, why, how much, and what will it look like?
[Conference Lecture]. Event
Nesser, Petter (2014)
New facets of the Islamist terrorism threat in Western Europe: from random to targeted attacks
[Conference Lecture]. Event
Nesser, Petter (2014)
Fremmedkrigere i europeiske terrorceller
[Conference Lecture]. Event
Nesser, Petter (2013)
Current situation of jihad in Europe
[Lecture]. Event
Nesser, Petter (2013)
Situasjonsbildet Norge og Europa
[Lecture]. Event
Nesser, Petter (2013)
Voldelig ekstremisme og terror i Europa og Norge: situasjonsbilde og utviklingstrekk
[Lecture]. Event
Nesser, Petter (2013)
Current trends in transnational jihadi terrorism: the case of Europe
[Lecture]. Event
Nesser, Petter (2013)
Har AQIM og støttespillere intensjon om og kapasitet til å angripe i vestlige land?
[Lecture]. Event
Nesser, Petter (2013)
Ekstremisme i sosiale medier
[Lecture]. Event
Nesser, Petter (2013)
Ekstremisme i sosiale medier: En oversikt over forskning, internasjonale trender og implikasjoner for norske forhold, del av Inger Marie Sunde "Forebygging av radikalisering og voldelig ekstremisme på internett," rapport, Politihøgskolen, 2013
[Report Research].
Nesser, Petter (2013)
Enkeltmannsterrorisme
[Lecture]. Event
Nesser, Petter (2013)
Trussel-beskrivelse Europa og Norge
[Lecture]. Event
Nesser, Petter (2013)
Islamic Extremism in Norway and Europe
[Lecture]. Event
Nesser, Petter (2013)
Ekstremisme i et globalt og nasjonalt perspektiv
[Lecture]. Event
Nesser, Petter (2013)
Primary Sources in terrorism research
[Conference Lecture]. Event
Nesser, Petter (2013)
Voldelig ekstremisme og terror i Europa og Norge: situasjonsbilde og utviklingstrekk
[Lecture]. Event
Nesser, Petter (2013)
Rekruttering og radikalisering til militant islamisme i Europa Militant islamisme i Norge
[Conference Lecture]. Event
Nesser, Petter (2012)
Abu Qatada and Palestine
[Conference Lecture]. Event
Nesser, Petter (2012)
Single Actor Terrorism: Scope, Characteristics and Explanations
[Popular Science Article]. 6(6)
Nesser, Petter (2012)
Individual Jihadist Operations in Europe: Patterns and Challenges
[Popular Science Article]. 5(1)
Nesser, Petter & Lia, Brynjar (2010)
Lessons Learned from the July 2010 Norwegian Terrorist Plot
Paths to Global Jihad: Radicalisation and Recruitment to Terror Networks
[Report Research].
Nesser, Petter (2006)
"The airliner plot" : en kort analyse av operasjonsmønster, motivasjoner og internasjonale forbindelser
[Report Research].
Nesser, Petter (2005)
The slaying of the Dutch filmmaker : religiously motivated violence or Islamist terrorism in the name of global jihad?
[Report Research].
This report surveys in depth the available open source information about the ritualistic murder of the filmmaker TheoVan Gogh on the streets of Amsterdam on November 2, 2004. The report makes the case that the murder of Van Goghwas a terrorist attack implemented by an al-Qaida inspired radical Islamist group within the framework of global jihad,and not an act of religious violence by a lone fanatic. The report also argues that the invasion of Iraq was an importantmotivational factor for the assassin and his accomplices, in addition to grievances related to the Dutch government’spolicies concerning immigration and Dutch counter-terrorism measures.
Nesser, Petter & Lia, Brynjar (2005)
Terror mot jarnvegar : eit oversyn over typiske terroraksjonar mot togpassasjertransport
[Report Research].
This report describes and categorizes the most typical terrorist attacks against train passengers and the passengercarryingrailway systems.Compared to other parts of the civilian infrastructure, including the transportation sector, public railway transportationhas been a relatively frequent target for terrorist attacks and threats in countries with active terrorist organisations.Furthermore, the railways have also been scene for a number of mass casualty-attacks, including several of the worstterrorist attacks in modern European history. These include the bombings of three train carriers in the LondonUnderground in July 2005, four trains at a railway station in Madrid in March 2004, at a Moscow subway station inFebruary 2004, and at the Central Station in Bologna, Italy in august 1980.The report emphasises that despite the wide variety of types of potential mass casualty attacks, most deadly terroristattacks have in fact occurred at the railway stations, and the most typical terrorist weapon remains a small bomb.
Nesser, Petter (2004)
Jihad in Europe : a survey of the motivations for Sunni Islamist terrorism in post-millennium Europe
[Report Research].
This report surveys the motivations for Sunni Islamist terrorism in post-millennium Europe. It provides in-depth casestudies of four terrorist plots in Europe after 2000, attributed to Sunni Islamist militants.The analysis is based mainly on the press coverage of the investigations and trials of the terrorist cells. The aim of theanalysis is to determine whether these acts of terrorism should be understood primarily within the framework of alQaida’sglobal jihad, or largely as a spill-over effect local Islamist insurgencies or “jihads” in the Middle East and NorthAfrica, or as an emerging “European jihadism” motivated by grievances generated in the European Muslim diaspora.The report provides an overview and some general observations about the recent patterns of Islamist terrorism insideEurope. The appendix of the report contains a list of thwarted terrorist plots against targets in Europe attributed toIslamist militants. It also contains profiles of radical Islamist movements, which are believed to maintain structuresinside the region.
Nesser, Petter & Lia, Brynjar (2003)
Terror mot drikkevann : en oversikt over terrorgruppers interesse for å ramme offentlig vannforsyning
[Report Research].
The present report examines the terrorist threat to Norwegian water supplies. The new threat environment in the post9/11era is explored and is followed by a global survey of nearly 50 terrorist and sabotage attacks against water suppliesduring the past thirty years, collected from various chronologies and databases.The study concludes that water supplies are only of marginal interest to most terrorist organisations. The study hasfound no evidence of any successful terrorist attack using poisoning or polluting agents against large water reservoirs.There have been a small number of poison attacks against local water supplies, however, and a slightly higher numberof bomb attacks against parts of water supply infrastructure.The study recommends that more attention should be given to vulnerabilities in the local distribution systems, primarilywith regards to buildings housing typically high-risk terrorist targets
