Ansattprofil

Petter Nesser

Professor II

Institutt for rettsvitenskap og styring

Romnummer A5I-176
E-post petter.nesser@bi.no

Publikasjoner

Vitenskapelige publikasjoner I media Andre

Nesser, Petter (2023)

Introducing the Jihadi Plots in EuropeDataset (JPED)

Journal of Peace Research, Doi: https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433221123360

The article introduces a new dataset on terrorist attack activity by jihadis in Western Europe. The dataset was built over nearly two decades at the Norwegian Defence Research Establishment. It records not only attacks that were launched, but also plots that were foiled by counterterrorism. The rationale behind the dataset is that analyses based on launched attacks may misrepresent the scale and nature of terrorism. The article shows that if we were to measure the jihadi threat to Europe by attacks only we would miss out on 58.2% of the total attack activity. We also show that while attack data signify a trend towards small attacks by individuals, these data hide the fact that terror networks persist in plotting big attacks that get foiled. We discuss how analyses based on attacks only may distort comparative analyses of different types of terrorists across countries, as well as causal analyses of terrorism drivers. By including foiled plots we gain a fuller picture of terrorism. The Jihadi Plots in Europe Dataset allows the gauging of different aspects of the threat from Al-Qaida and Islamic State in Europe. The dataset documents when and where terror plots occur, whether or not they result in attacks, and different types of information about perpetrators and how they operate. The Dataset offers a reliable overview of jihadi terrorism in Europe for research and policy.

Nesser, Petter & Gråtrud, Henrik (2019)

When Conflicts Do Not Overspill: The Case of Jordan

Perspectives on Politics, , s. 1-15. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1017/S153759271900389X

How can vulnerable states adjacent to countries embroiled in civil war avoid conflict contagion? Jordan has all the classic attributes highlighted in the literature as creating vulnerabilities susceptible to spillover. It adjoins Syria and Iraq where jihadists have operated freely. It has a weak economy, refugees pouring in from adjacent conflicts and is home to hundreds—if not thousands—of jihadists. Moreover, jihadists consider the Jordanian regime to be traitors—who conspire with the enemies of Islam—and they want to replace it with an Islamic state. However, as we show, very few jihadist attacks have happened in Jordan. We test three hypotheses for the limited spillover. Our analysis suggests a state policy that we dub “calibrated repression” is the most significant explanation. This means that Jordan protects against spillover by repressing jihadist attempts at infiltrating the kingdom and clamping down on local terrorist cells linked to the Islamic State while keeping other domestic jihadist elements in check through co-optation. The regime restrains the use of force against less acute threats and displays some leniency towards radicals when the situation allows. Our findings speak to the broader literature on spillover and offer insights into the understudied topic of mechanisms limiting spillover in high-risk environments.

Nesser, Petter (2018)

Islamist Terrorism in Europe, second edition

Hurst/Oxford University Press

Nesser, Petter (2016)

Kommentar til BBC’s livefeed I forbindelse med Brusselangrepet (uten tittel).

BBC News, Science & Environment,

Nesser, Petter & Lia, Brynjar (2016)

Jihadism in Norway: a Typology of Militant Networks in a Peripheral European Country

Perspectives on Terrorism (PT), - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

Jihadism in Norway has witnessed a huge shift from consisting primarily of foreign ethnically homogenous networks with a low capacity for mobilization, to the current situation where a loose country-wide network of domestic extremists have demonstrated a considerable capacity for foreign fighter recruitment over the past four years. In this article we introduce a typology for better understanding how jihadism takes root in Europe’s periphery.

Nesser, Petter; Stenersen, Anne & Oftedal, Emilie (2016)

Jihadi Terrorism in Europe: The IS-Effect

Perspectives on Terrorism (PT),

The article examines the extent to which Islamic State (IS) has affected jihadi terrorism in Europe. We look at the scope of attack activity, perpetrators and their networks, modus operandi and funding. For all the talk of a new threat we argue that, apart from scope, less is new than most assume. IS wants largely the same as al-Qaida did by attacking Europe. Their tactics are similar and their networks overlap in time and space. The core dynamics of the threat endure. It is premature to talk of a new paradigm in recruitment, but more terrorists are instructed online than before. Patterns in funding remain relatively stable, but there is an increase in plots financed from abroad. Despite military setbacks, IS remains a formidable terrorist actor, with territorial control, economic muscle and thousands of Europeans in its ranks. These things, combined with the group’s skillful social media usage, are exhausting European security services’ capacities. So is the refugee situation, which is exploited by IS to transfer personnel. If IS’s territorial control persists, we foresee attempts at large-scale operations, including attempts at using improvised chemical or radiological devices. If IS continues to lose ground, small-scale attacks by single actors will become even more frequent.

Nesser, Petter (2015)

Islamist Terrorism in Europe, A History

C Hurst & Co Publishers Ltd

Nesser, Petter & Hegghammer, Thomas (2015)

Assessing Islamic State’s Commitment to Attacking the West

Perspectives on Terrorism (PT),

How much of a terrorist threat does the Islamic State (IS) pose to Western countries? This article looks at what IS has said and done with regard to attacks in the West. We examine IS statements and take stock of IS-related attack plots in Western Europe, North America, and Australia from January 2011 through June 2015 using a new dataset of jihadi plots and a new typology of links between organizations and attackers. IS appears to have had a decentralized attack strategy based on encouraging sympathiser attacks while not mounting centrally directed operations of their own. There have also been more plots involving only IS sympathisers than plots involving returned foreign fighters. However, the organization’s formidable resources and verbal hints at future attacks give reason for vigilance.

Lia, Brynjar & Nesser, Petter (2014)

Norske muslimske fremmedkrigere

Nytt Norsk Tidsskrift (NNT), (4) , s. 399-416.

Nesser, Petter (2014)

Toward an increasingly heterogeneous threat: a chronology of jihadist terrorism in Europe 2008-2013

Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, 37(5) , s. 440-456. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2014.893405

Stenersen, Anne & Nesser, Petter (2014)

The modus operandi of jihadi terrorists in Europe

Perspectives on Terrorism (PT),

This article provides the most thorough overview yet of how jihadis have plotted terrorist attacks in Europe. Drawing on a database of 122 incidents, we review trends in weapon types, attack types and target types in the period 1994–2013. The overall finding is that jihadi terrorism in Europe is becoming more discriminate in its targeting while attack types and weapons are becoming progressively more diverse. The most likely scenarios in the coming three to five years are bomb attacks and armed assaults against sub-national entities, communities and individuals. A majority of the terrorist attacks will be limited in scope, but mass-casualty terrorism cannot be excluded. Foreign fighters from Syria are likely to influence the threat level in Europe, but we do not expect them to alter patterns in modus operandi dramatically.

Nesser, Petter (2013)

Abu Qatada and Palestine

Die Welt des Islams: International Journal for the Study of Modern Islam, 53(3-4) , s. 416-448. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1163/15685152-5334P0005

Nesser, Petter (2011)

Ideologies of Jihad in Europe

Terrorism and Political Violence, 23(2) , s. 173-200. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/09546553.2010.537587

Nesser, Petter (2008)

How did Europe's global Jihadis obtain training for their militant causes?

Terrorism and Political Violence, 20(2) , s. 234-256. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/09546550801920758

This article examines, compares, and contrasts the ways in which "global jihadis" have trained for terrorism in Western Europe. Before the invasion of Afghanistan, the terrorists received training in Al Qaeda paramilitary camps. After invasion, they had to find alternative training methods and arenas. It is widely assumed that the Internet has taken over the role of the Afghan camps. The current survey suggests that the Internet's role as a "virtual training camp" might be overstated. Although the Net has become an important tool for terrorists on many levels, they maintain an urge to obtain real-life, military-style training in jihadi combat zones. Despite difficulties and risks, many of today's terrorists attend terrorist training facilities in Pakistan or other places. The main characteristic of training practices after the invasion of Afghanistan seems to be that, from an organizational perspective, the push for training and preparation comes from "below" rather than from "above.".

Nesser, Petter (2008)

Chronology of Jihadism in Western Europe 1994-2007: Planned, Prepared, and Executed Terrorist Attacks

Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, 31(10) , s. 924-946. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/10576100802339185

Holter, Katrine; Seierstad, Åsne & Nesser, Petter (2022)

Rett og Slett #45: IS-kvinnene – del I: Radikaliseringen

[Radio]

Nesser, Petter (2018)

Europe hasn’t won the war on terror

[Kronikk]

Nesser, Petter (2017)

Mange intervjuer i norsk og utenlandsk media (avis, tv, radio) om internasjonal jihadisme og IS

[Journal]

Nesser, Petter & Gerhardsen, Wenche (2016)