Riana Steen

Proceedings of the European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL2026) 14 – 19 June 2026, Braga, Portugal p. 1-8 Doi: https://cmsweb.com.sg/rps2prod/esrel2026/epro/html/esrel26-p27876.html

The form and scope of accident investigation reports reflect underlying assumptions about causality, responsibility, and learning. Although official investigations address technical, human, and systemic factors, the way inquiry is structured shapes how coordination and sensemaking are examined, often leaving these dimensions implicit. This study offers a human-centred reinterpretation that makes these aspects more explicit. When comparable accidents are investigated under similar premises, this may result in recurring patterns in how causes are framed and learning is articulated. This article presents a parallel analysis of two Norwegian maritime accidents: Thor Heyerdahl and Helge Ingstad, based on official investigation reports and examined through the lens of an established accident investigation maturity model. The analysis identifies recurring patterns across the two cases in how causal factors are framed, which questions are posed, and how learning is defined, as well as elements that remain outside the analytical scope of the investigations. The article concludes by discussing how these patterns relate to the maturity level of the investigative approach and how a human-centred perspective on accident analysis may support broader organizational learning in high-risk maritime contexts.

Risk, Hazards & Crisis in Public Policy (RHCPP) 17(1) Doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/rhc3.70052

ABSTRACT Organizations operating in high‐risk environments rely on learning from real incidents, yet how evaluation practices contribute to competence development and organizational learning remains insufficiently understood. This challenge is evident in police operations, where decisions made under uncertainty have immediate implications for safety and public trust. This study examines how incident response evaluation practices shape competence development and organizational learning at the operational level of the Norwegian police. Using a qualitative design, the study draws on semi‐structured interviews with operational officers and commanders, analyzed through thematic analysis. The findings show that while evaluations are widely seen as important, they are often fragmented, under‐resourced, and weakly connected to systematic follow‐up, limiting the transfer of learning beyond individuals and teams. To address this, the study introduces the competence development (CD) model, which explains how evaluation practices interact with organizational structures, culture, and learning processes across individual, group, and organizational levels. The study highlights the importance of leadership engagement, structured reflection, and open communication in supporting sustained learning and CD in police organizations and other high‐risk settings.

Navigating the FRAM: Mastering the functional resonance analysis method for modelling complex socio-technical systems p. 83-121 Doi: https://doi.org/10.1201/9781003518167-8

Risk, Hazards & Crisis in Public Policy (RHCPP) Doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/rhc3.12302

Norway's oil sector faces significant security challenges due to rapid technological advancements and heightened geopolitical tensions, particularly concerning threats from Russian drones. The sector maintains a vigilant approach, continually monitoring and adapting to evolving threats. This study investigates strategies employed by sector companies to mitigate challenges, emphasizing collaboration, effective network utilization, and learning from past incidents to enhance operational resilience. Our analysis aligns with three thematic areas from the Generic Resilience Management Guidelines developed under the EU-funded H2020 project DARWIN: enhancing coordination in emergency response operations, managing adaptive capacities, and updating procedures and checklists. The study underscores the role of task forces, interdisciplinary teams, and collaborative efforts among industry operators in enhancing adaptability to threats. Findings indicated that although a willingness to draw insights from past incidents exists, a predominant reactive approach to learning prevails. Furthermore, a culture of secrecy prevalent in the sector inhibits knowledge sharing, potentially challenging overall resilience. In this complex context, proactive and transparent security approaches are imperative for Norway's oil sector to enhance resilience. Organizations should adopt a dynamic, technology-integrated risk management approach, involving continuous policy revision and stakeholder engagement, as suggested in contemporary resilience enhancement strategies.

Safety Science 175 Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2024.106498

In this study, the duality of adaptive capacity in aviation safety is examined, where the need for resilience of frontline workers conflicts with the expectations and assumptions of upstream entities, leading to system brittleness. We explore three critical categories: responsibilization, the application of practical wisdom in navigating challenging situations, and the unrecognized sacrifices that accompany adaptation. A qualitative research design is used, using three focus groups consisting of pilots in a European airline, the airline’s safety department, and the respective civil aviation authority. The study's findings reveal i. significant organizational constraint and pressure on pilots, resulting in workarounds, personal playbooks, and exhaustion, ii. a culture of apathy, cynicism, and secrecy, contributing to a disconnect between the idealized and practical aspects of work (work-as-imagined versus work-as-done), iii. an oversimplification of complex issues and attributing problems to individual factors rather than systemic factors, iv. normalizing the risk of saturation by pushing the boundaries of safe performance, and v. the current prescriptive training approach may increase risk by not accounting for adaptations that are necessary in the frontline work environment. Recognizing both the technical and social complexities of aviation, the study calls for a reimagined framework away from a prescriptive training approach, as it may increase risk by not accounting for adaptations that are necessary in the frontline work environment. In summary, the study presents a nuanced view of aviation as a complex system, where the push for adaptivity is challenged by ethical dilemmas and trade-offs. Left unresolved, this conflict may hinder aviation safety.

Business Continuity Management and Resilience: Theories, Models, and Processes p. 78-109 Doi: https://doi.org/10.4018/979-8-3693-1658-0.ch005

Safety Science 173 Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2024.106459

This study investigates the interorganizational collaboration among agencies that responded to a landslide in Gjerdrum, Norway in 2020. It focuses on the crucial role of communication, coordination, cooperation, and knowledge sharing within organizations, and it examines tensions between centralization and decentralization, professional and administrative leadership, planning and improvisation, and external and internal information sharing. To explore this collaboration, we conducted nine interviews and employed the viable system model (VSM) as a conceptual and methodological framework. Through a systemic diagnosis of the search and rescue (SAR) crisis response system’s viability and by applying the VSM, the structural, communicational, and functional pathologies in interorganizational collaboration were identified. Thus, this diagnostic approach allowed us to determine the pathological features that challenged the SAR system’s effectiveness and viability, including imbalances, inefficiencies in maintaining internal and external interactions, communication breakdowns, and inefficient resource allocation. These insights clarify the structural challenges within the SAR system and underscore the significance of optimizing interconnections, establishing efficient decision-making processes, and improving communication flows to enhance the overall effectiveness of the SAR system.

Systems Engineering p. 1-18 Doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/sys.21783

The study of emergency or crisis management practices acquires strategical relevancefor resilient decision-making under uncertainty. The assessment of system resilience isan asset to identify potential design or operational improvements of a complex socio-technical system, such as an Emergency Management (EM) system. This research aimsat analyzing the functional properties of an EM system recurring to a novel integrationof the Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM) and Bayesian Belief Networks(BBN). The FRAM is used to model and display the actors and the interactions in thesystem, while the BBN, dynamically updated when new data becomes available, sup-ports a complementary quantitative assessment. The methodology is iterated in theanalysis of an EM procedure, issued by a second-line Emergency Response organiza-tion for Oil and Gas (O&G) operators in Norwegian continental shelf. The results of thestudy show that the proposed stochastic methodology compensates the drawbacks oftraditional FRAM modeling, via the outcomes of BBN quantitative analyses. The find-ings, contextualized in EM, can be transferred to different socio-technical contexts,both military and civil ones

Risk, Hazards & Crisis in Public Policy (RHCPP) Doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/rhc3.12279

This study examines the impact of regulations and standard procedures on safety outcomes in unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) operations, specifically focussing on Norwegian military UAV systems, from a high-reliability organization (HRO) perspective. By analyzing data from existing regulations, accident reports, and interviews with military drone pilots using thematic analysis, we identify key recurring themes. Our findings highlight the importance of fatigue and exhaustion due to the absence of regulations on resting time for military drone pilots. This poses substantial risks and increases the likelihood of accidents and incidents in UAV operations. Additionally, we uncover gaps in safety reporting and accountability for military UAV pilots, indicating the need for improved reporting procedures that consider the unique operational elements of UAVs. Effective communication between stakeholders, including drone pilots, ground crew, and air traffic controllers, emerges as a critical factor in maintaining situational awareness. This emphasis on communication is consistent with HRO principles and supports the essential safety tasks of UAV pilots, namely sense-making, decision making, and performance. By uncovering the impact of regulations and operational procedures on safety outcomes and addressing fatigue in UAV operations, this research contributes to enhancing the safety and reliability of Norwegian military UAV systems.

Infrastructures 8(2) Doi: https://doi.org/10.3390/infrastructures8020016

Crisis-induced learning (CIL), as a concept, has an ancient history. Although the academic literature offers a range of sophisticated approaches to address CIL, it is still not quite clear how we learn, how we know we have learned, and what challenges and opportunities are involved in the CIL process. To address these questions and navigate ways forward, we need to use a specific real-world subject to capture contextual issues involved in a crisis cycle, which affects the learning process. In this paper, we uncover patterns of learning by exploring contextual issues involved with “actual scenarios” related to three COVID-19 episodes (emergencies) between August and December 2020. To analyze the study’s findings, we use three different themes from the DARWIN Generic Resilience Management Guidelines: (1) supporting the coordination and synchronization of emergency-response operation activities, (2) managing adaptive capacity, and (3) developing and revising procedures and checklists. Looking into these “real scenarios” seems fruitful for understanding patterns of learning, and it results in several learning recommendations. Among others, this study reveals how the uncertainty involved in emergency-response operations creates cognitive demands for emergent problem-solving.

ESREL 2023 - Proceedings of the 33rd European Safety and Reliability Conference : The Future of Safety in the Reconnected World, 3 – 7 September 2023, University of Southampton, United Kingdom p. 3471-3478 Doi: https://doi.org/10.3850/978-981-18-8071-1_P017-cd

In recent years, the scientific fields of cyber-security and resilience engineering have emerged as new ways to deal with emerging risks in cyber-socio-technical systems. Unlike conventional security management approaches, focusing on historical data to provide an accurate risk picture, resilience engineering aims to enhance an organization's capacity to anticipate, monitor, and adapt to disruptions and surprises. However, with the increasing cyber threats and changes in national and international security policies, there is a pressing need to examine the resilience characteristics of cyber emergency preparedness in both public and private sectors. To address this need, this study adopts a triangulation method, through online survey and interview with two subject matter experts in the cyber-domain and explore factors that might contribute to enhancing cyber emergency preparedness in dealing with potential cyber threats and attacks. Findings suggest that front-line operators have limited information and capacity to process existing data in the domain of cyber security, highlighting a need for enhancing cyber-related knowledge across organizations. Furthermore, 25% of enterprises in the sample update their cybersecurity risk picture only once a year. The lack of more frequent updates downscales the contingency plans' thoroughness and puts companies in a vulnerable situation given the increasing trend of cyber-attacks.

ESREL 2023 - Proceedings of the 33rd European Safety and Reliability Conference : The Future of Safety in the Reconnected World, 3 – 7 September 2023, University of Southampton, United Kingdom p. 3137-3144 Doi: https://doi.org/10.3850/978-981-18-8071-1_P382-cd

Accelerated globalization, climate change, and armed conflicts generate emerging security challenges at borders for the Norwegian custom administration (CA) authorities. CA has a critical role in governing management efforts to mitigate threats related to their social mission. Nevertheless, besides daily operational challenges, dealing with some events may go beyond the standard procedures and propagates over multiple interconnected functions delivered by other governmental agencies such as police- and health department. Managing such complexities in a CA's operational context requires a holistic management system capable of addressing uncertainties and interconnectivity between involved agencies. In this regard, resilience-based thinking, and its design in the system under study has been acknowledged to be promising for dealing with dynamicity and managing risk proactively. This study applies concepts and approaches from the resilience engineering field and explores the Norwegian Customs' ability to colocate and coordinate with other government responding agencies at the border. We examine the interoperability between involved agencies in joint operations through the lens of the Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM). Our findings support the advantages of FRAM in studying a system's attributes. We conclude by outlining recommendations for strengthening resilience in the Norwegian customs border facilities such as a holistic approach to risk management, emergency planning and training for cooperation and co-location and proposing further research endeavors.

International Journal of Business Continuity and Risk Management (IJBCRM) 13(2) p. 165-187 Doi: https://doi.org/10.1504/IJBCRM.2023.131863

Institutional and regulatory approaches to planning are still primarily based on linearity and predictability and show a trend towards centralised control and prescriptive planning. A second trend recognises unpredictability in complex operations and focuses on dealing with the changeable nature of work. We refer to this adaptive type of planning as operational planning (OP). In this paper, we argue that a shift towards more control and prescriptive planning can undermine this critical adaptive capability in the completion of complex operations. Triggered by lessons drawn from three different studies, we demonstrate that fostering this adaptive capability in complex operations necessitates a shift in how uncertainty is addressed in institutional and regulatory systems. While exploratory, our findings add to a more complete picture of OP and its relevance to the reliability of complex operations.

Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management Doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-5973.12501

The overall objective of business continuity management (BCM) systems is to provide guidance and analytical subcomponents on how to assess and manage risk and sustain operations when facing a disruptive event. Current BCM practices largely follow a standard structure for formal planning processes and risk-assessment activities. An underlying assumption in standard practices is that systems can be decomposed in subsystems in a meaningful way, as they are tractable and data are available to predict the system's future functionality. However, the reality is much more complex in our volatile world. Standard BCM approaches do not pay adequate attention to the treatment of uncertainties. Thus, they fall short of addressing the complexity of operations involved with emergencies and crisis. Lack of focus on uncertainty hampers the ability of BCM systems to provide sufficient support for decision making in highly uncertain situations. Dealing with such situations necessitates a shift from a defensive risk-management approach, grounded on an illusion of control and accountability, to a proactive stance based on resilience thinking. Responding to this call, we use concepts from the resilience engineering (RE) field and link them to different components of a BCM system. We develop a novel BCM framework and identify a set of resilience influence factors to enhance resilience in BCM systems. We use a case-example, hosted by a leading organization in a second-line emergency response operation in Norway to reflect on the application of a suggested BCM framework.

Proceedings of the 32nd European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL 2022) p. 2985-2992 Doi: https://doi.org/10.3850/978-981-18-5183-4_S26-03-674-cd

The motivation for conducting a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is providing decision-making support on the choice of arrangements and measures to deal with identified risks. By estimating risk, the decision-maker is informed. However, recent developments in risk management as a scientific field founded on the idea that the application of PRA is irrational and potentially misleading, particularly in cases associated with large uncertainties about likelihoods and outcomes. Using an example of risk-based inspection (RBI) for explosion-protected equipment, we demonstrate that PRA also has an important role in risk management, even when the uncertainties are large. However, addressing the wide range of specificities and other complexity in such context goes far beyond the boundaries of PRA theory. An alternative is a probabilistic approach grounded on the Bayesian Network modelling (BN-RBI). By its flexible nature, the application of BN allows for using information from various data sources and provides a more realistic risk picture for RBI purposes. Still, there are some issues according to the study's results: (1) converting qualitative risk zones to appropriate quantitative parameters requires a precise definition of zone classification, which is lacking in existing inspection data; (2) insufficient data for modelling consequences of ignition in the Norwegian petroleum industry, as these events are rare; (3) the subjectivity element in converting the consequence of failure to monetary value, that is based on the analyst's knowledge and preference. However, despite these challenges, we demonstrate that applying the BN-RBI approach allows for developing a dynamic casual and consequence risk picture.

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 76 Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2022.103026

Emergency or crisis management, both in civilian or military context, is regarded as a complex socio-technical system, whose dynamic nature and complexity require a holistic approach. Over time, scholars developed diverse strategies and methods to capture such complexity and effectively design emergency plans for more or less severe disasters scenarios. Nonetheless, planning is not always an omni-comprehensive task, pushing organizations to stretch their adaptive capacities in dynamic and challenging settings. This manuscript explores such adaptive capacity as put in place by a leading Norwegian organization in providing emergency management solutions, facing unexpected challenges (at the time of the event): handling of Covid-19 infection episodes on offshore oil platforms. The study, conducted through the Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM) highlights the relevance of organizational learning which allows to handle emergencies by adapting plans to the specific context and by renewing new emergency management procedures derived from lessons learned. The study focuses on three different Covid-19 infection management cases to understand the nuances of actions and emerging adaptations that led to the development of a revised of an emergency plan, seen again through the lens of FRAM. While the methodological approach refers to Covid-19 infection management, we believe it can be extended into larger crisis management, providing a use case for the applicability of FRAM into emergency management scenarios.

Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management Doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-5973.12393

Combining the conceptual tools and methods of resilience engineering (RE) with naturalistic decision-making (NDM), in the context of police critical incident command, this study explores the capacity of individual commanders to manage occupational stress during a critical incident or crisis. A case scenario and interviews, together with cognitive task analysis (CTA), are used to investigate how stress affects decision making and performance. The analysis shows: (1) As a social process, sensemaking goes beyond an individual's cognitive capacity. It depends on teams and involves collaboration, sharing and assessing risks and uncertainties. (2) In terms of improvisation, decision-making requires organisational support in training and authorisation. (3) The mechanisms that ensure the synchronisation of activities link to an operational communication strategy grounded on transparency and trust between the parties involved. (4) Individual adaptive capacity also has organisational characteristics. It improves by facilitating and stimulating proactive learning across the organisation. Bringing RE and NDM together clarifies interdependencies. Thus, the gap between the organisational system and the individual's performance might be closed, which improves performances at the sharp end by a feedback loop that reconciles bottom-up and top-down views.

Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management 30(3) p. 257-269 Doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-5973.12416

Standard emergency-management procedures offer guidance on how organizations can improve their handling of all types of emergencies. However, such a generalization undermines uncertainties and oversimplifies the complexity of real work practices during an emergency response operation (ERO). The handling of the COVID-19 pandemic highlights how uncertainty and escalating consequences reinforce the need for resilience in EROs. To illustrate the key elements of our suggested approach and its practical implications, we discuss the issues in light of a case study related to a COVID-19 outbreak on a floating oil rig in the North Sea. The analysis reveals several instances of creative problem solving, and individual and collective efforts beyond the scope of the standard procedures. It also underlines how the shortcomings of resource allocation and over-planning might lead to inflexibility, thus harming EROs' efficiency. Our analysis highlights that the key to resilient EROs lies in robust coordination, the ability to improvise, transparency, and trusting communication between the actors involved. Greater focus on network building—proactively maintained through regular training and exercise activities—strengthens resilience in emergency-management systems. All these traits link to the Norwegian term “samhandling,” a notion which is here proposed to summarize and connect these resilience capacities.

Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management 29(4) Doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-5973.12353

Emergency response (ER) planners have developed plans either under "all-hazards" approach, focusing on a full spectrum of emergencies or under a specific scenario—in which planning underlines aligned actions to respond to a particular situation. Either of them represents the so-called Work-As-Imagined (WAI) operation. However, the growing complexity, the scope of emerging situation and the level of uncertainty, create unpredicted challenges for ER operation, which represent another variety of work named Work-As-Done (WAD). These challenges require different degrees of adaptation to avoid the cascading impacts of an event into an accident, or even a disaster. Drawing upon the traditional Functional Resonance Analysis (FRAM), we provide a novel FRAM representation, which reflects adaptive capacities on functional inter-relationships, and their evolution over time in different scenarios. Rather than using time as an aspect of the FRAM hexagon in its traditional sense, we propose an explicit time-dependent analysis. We outline how to make the chimera of time response feasible in ER operations and how to represent respective sources of success. Based on our FRAM approach, we conduct an incident analysis referred to an event that happened in Gjøa in 2017, in Norway at the North Sea, to understand adaptation in the four different ER phases, that is mobilizing, alert/warning, combat and normalization.

Magma forskning og viten p. 70-79

Den tradisjonelle risiko- og sårbarhetsanalysen er utgangspunkt for dagens beredskapsplaner, som består av rammer og prosedyrer for håndtering av definerte fare- og ulykkessituasjoner (DFU-er). Turbulente endringer, økende gjensidig avhengighet på tvers av organisasjoner samt økende grad av usikkerhet skaper imidlertid utfordringer som ligger utenfor grensene for den tradisjonelle beredskapstilnærmingen. Håndteringen av beredskapshendelser knyttet til koronaepidemien synliggjør hvordan usikkerhet, tidspress og eskalerende konsekvenser forsterker behovet for resiliens, altså motstandsdyktighet, i beredskapsarbeidet. Gjennom studien trekker vi frem læringspunkter fra hvordan et covid-19-utbrudd på den flytende oljeriggen West Phoenix ble håndtert på operativt og strategisk nivå. Basert på en metodetriangulering utforsker studien rollene til oljeselskapets beredskapsorganisasjoner og deres håndtering av utbruddet. Resultatet fra vår analyse av empiriske funn fremhever at nøkkelen til resilient beredskapsarbeid ligger i koordinering samt evne til improvisasjon, åpenhet, samarbeid og tillitsfull kommunikasjon mellom involverte aktører.

Risk, Hazards & Crisis in Public Policy (RHCPP) 12(2) Doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/rhc3.12211

This explorative study addresses emergent learning related to the refugee crisis in Norway in 2015. We define emergent learning as organizational learning that occurs as a benign by‐product of solving immediate problems as they arise. The study is based mainly on secondary data; media coverage, public evaluation report, and other public documentation. The results from empirical research confirm that emergent learning has had a profound influence on how the Storskog crisis in 2015 was managed. Our findings also reveal suboptimal problem solving, insufficient management capacity, and public organizations who were not prepared to respond fast enough.

Scottish Journal of Political Economy Doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/sjpe.12304

This paper explores the effect of market concentration of the Norwegian oil production sector (NPS) on Norway's second- largest industry, the oilfield services companies (OFS). To capture this effect, we use the system generalized method of moments approach (GMM) to estimate an em-pirical model, spanning the period 1993– 2013. The findings indicate that increased market concentration is consistent with lower profitability of the oilfield services companies, as the bargaining power of oil companies relative to service companies increases. Increased knowledge about this effect could contribute to improving strategies for the further de-velopment of these industries by stakeholders

Safety Science 142 Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2021.105367

While organisations are becoming more complex than ever, their applied performance management (PM) systems are still based on the conventional PM approach, derived from the need for control and accountability. On the other hand, turbulent changes, growing interdependencies across organisations, and increasing uncertainty have created challenges beyond the boundaries of traditional approaches. This study explores how principles and methods from the resilience engineering (RE) field can be applied to improve organisations' adaptive capacity in the sense that they anticipate, recognise, adapt to and absorb external or internal disturbances. By discussing features of different components of PM systems and ideas in RE, we provide a framework that links the elements of a PM system and the main features of RE at the cultural, strategic, and operational levels. The approach is instantiated and validated in the context of correctional service institutes, focusing on both security threats and related safety implications for staff and other inmates. We use a Norwegian prison as a case study and apply the proposed framework to assess the institute's resilience potentials.

Proceedings of the 31st European Safety and Reliability Conference p. 490-498 Doi: https://doi.org/10.3850/978-981-18-2016-8_091-cd

From the theoretical perspectives, traditionally, safety and security represent different contexts, which challenges exchanging ideas, methods, and results between these two scientific fields. Therefore, a distinction between these two contexts, based on the intentionality behind unwanted events, the way risk is understood, and the methods used to assess and manage risk in these contexts. From the practical point of view, distinguish between the roles and responsibilities of these two professional communities are unclear. This study explores the extent of the commonalities and differences in safety and security professionals' current stage. We conduct a qualitative analysis based on 28 semi-structured interviews with the safety and security domain professionals, focusing on the conceptual narratives, responsibilities, and risk assessment approaches from a practical perspective. Our findings indicate that while the professionals in these two fields strongly distinguish between the context of their activities, they share many commonalities regarding their day-to-day tasks. A fundamental common problem in managing risk is that it is difficult to express uncertainty and determine how likely it is that an incident/event happened; we are unable to give strong arguments for specific likelihood assignments of threat occurrence. Yet, a likelihood can always be assigned based on available knowledge. A holistic risk management approach, integrating risk- and resiliencebased thinking, acknowledges this and considers a set of qualitative and quantitative methods to reflect this (lack of) knowledge.

Risk, Hazards & Crisis in Public Policy (RHCPP) 12(1) Doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/rhc3.12207

The Total Defence (TD) concept aims to provide an effective crisis response structure by increasing societal resilience. However, the complexity of its structure regarding resource mobilisation and management process highlights the need for a complexity-oriented approach in the operationalising of TD. We study the application of TD during the COVID19 crisis and explore what makes the TD a viable system with resilience capabilities in the face the crisis. We apply the Viable Systems Model as a methodology to compare the viability of the UK and Norwegian TD systems, both of which use systems networks to achieve resilience, and contrast the different outcomes of each country. Our analysis highlights that: Managing the complexity of the TDS requires that all of the involved agencies proactively adopt a transparent approach to a joint decision making. This demands a wide range of sources of innovative solutions at different levels. Joint exercises, developed by the responsible agencies, enhance mutual understating of roles and responsibilities and crisis response structure. This calls for institutionalised support to dedicate resources. To avoid communications challenges, involved agencies in the TDS need to adopt an open messaging strategy, highlighting how to deal with uncertainties in communicating of decisions and action.

Reliability Engineering & System Safety 204(December) Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2020.107150

This exploratory study takes a closer look at the flood Risk Management (RM) system at a municipality level. The current practices of RM in municipalities follow to a large extent, a standard structure of RM processes. Their application comes short of addressing the wide range of local specificities and other complexity related socio-technical factors that can have widespread impacts, much beyond the municipal scope. This study uses concepts and ideas from the resilience engineering literature to enhance the practices of the RM system. We apply the Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM) to investigate the extent to which key RM activities are in line with generating anticipating, monitoring, responding and learning capabilities in the flood RM system. We examine the performance of RM functions, how they are coupled, and whether they can be sustained in the wake of a flood event. A triangulation of various qualitative research approaches is adopted, namely using semi-structured interviews, document analysis and workshop. Our findings reveal how the application of FRAM provides a deeper understanding of the underlying factors that shape the resilience of the RM process.

Risk, Hazards & Crisis in Public Policy (RHCPP) Doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/rhc3.12178

This paper focuses on the role resilience plays in flood crisis management at the municipal level. Drawing from crisis management and the resilience literature, we outline a conceptual framework for crisis management that incorporates resilience abilities, namely the ability to respond, monitor, anticipate, and learn. Then, through an in‐depth analysis of a flood event, provoked by the Synne storm in Norway in 2015, we explore the extent to which Eigersund municipality succeeded in managing the flood. We conclude by outlining the importance of resilience abilities to cope with learning and coordination challenges and by proposing further research endeavors.

European Journal for Security Research 4(2) p. 175-200 Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s41125-019-00041-0

This paper presents an alternative and broader security risk perspective, incorporat-ing uncertainty, as a two-dimensional combination of (1) threat (Th) on value (Vl), (2) vulnerability (Vu) given coping capabilities (Cc), and associated uncertainties U (will the threat scenario occur? and to what degree are we vulnerable?). Moreo-ver, this work attempts to provide an integrated approach to the safety and secu-rity fields. We look closely into the issues related to Safety-I, Safety-II and security. Whereas conventional safety management approaches (Safety-I) are based on hind-sight knowledge and risk assessments calculating historical data-based probabilities, the concept of Safety-II looks for ways to enhance the ability of organisations to be resilient in the sense that they recognise, adapt to and absorb disturbances. Three determinants that shape the Safety-II concept in the security perspective are the capacity of organisations to operate in changing circumstances; formulating strat-egies that promote a willingness to devote resources to security purposes, driven mainly by the organisation’s leader; and an organisational culture that encourage people to speak up (respond), think creatively (anticipate), and act as mindful par-ticipants (monitor and learn). Based on clarifying some of the fundamental build-ing blocks of security risk assessment, this work develops an extended security risk assessment, including an analysis of both vulnerability and resilience. The analysis explores how the system works following any type of threat scenario and determines whether key functions and operations can be sustained.

Risk, Reliability and Safety: Innovating Theory and Practice : Proceedings of ESREL 2016 (Glasgow, Scotland, 25-29 September 2016) p. 540-547

International Journal of Business Continuity and Risk Management (IJBCRM) 7(2) p. 127-150 Doi: https://doi.org/10.1504/IJBCRM.2017.086069

In this work, we argue that resilience, as the fundamental quality needed to prosper from significant change that disrupts an organisation's expected patterns of events, depends on the organisation's culture, strategy content and formation and performance management systems. Thus, it is thought-provoking that research in the field of performance management is largely disconnected from the adjoining fields of culture, strategy formation and safety management. By discussing features of and connections between organisational culture and strategy formation for resilient organisation, we provide a platform on which a performance management framework is developed. Vital in this respect is an organisation's ability to address the factual, potential, actual and critical. On the one hand, our work aspires to shed light on and bring research attention to the trinity of organisational culture, strategy formation and performance management. On the other, our suggested resilient performance management framework contributes to make the concept of resilience operational.

International Journal of Business Continuity and Risk Management (IJBCRM) 7(4) p. 318-336 Doi: https://doi.org/10.1504/IJBCRM.2017.10010125

This paper aims to provide new insights on the understanding of stress and using this concept in operational risk management. We identify three main lines of definitions of stress: situations having the potential for disruption, the consequences of being exposed to various threats, and the interaction between condition and response to pressures. Based on grounded theory as a methodology and from discussion and linking stress to the concept of uncertainty, this work suggests a new definition of stress as a "two-dimensional combination of threat and coping capability associated with uncertainty". Stress is formalised as (Th, Cc, U), where Th represents the threat (or amount of pressure), Cc represents coping capability, and U represents uncertainty about the magnitude of the threat and existing capabilities of coping with it. The present paper introduces three interrelated strands of operational risk: sense making, decision making, and performance. Using many examples related to operational risk in banking, this study demonstrates how different components of the proposed definition of stress may influence exposure to operational risk in each of its strands.

International Journal of Business Continuity and Risk Management (IJBCRM) 6(1) p. 17-35 Doi: https://doi.org/10.1504/IJBCRM.2015.070347

This research paper aims to develop a practical method to highlight certain key risk factors involved in the product development process. A new definition of the term 'launch risk' is introduced in this work. The term is defined as the uncertainty about and severity of the consequences of failed launch. A risk management framework for launching is provided as well as a weighted average scoring model for launching (WASL) as an intrinsic part of the suggested framework. WASL is used to identify, evaluate and communicate the critical risk factors involved with the launching processes. Using a hypothetical launching idea, this study demonstrates how applying the suggested risk management framework can increase the ability of a firm to make better strategic decisions in relation to the launch of the new product or the modification of an existing product as a part of its overall portfolio.

Safety Science 49(2) p. 292-297 Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2010.09.003

International Journal of Business Continuity and Risk Management (IJBCRM) 1(2) p. 113-124 Doi: https://doi.org/10.1504/IJBCRM.2010.033633

Reliability Engineering & System Safety 95(11) p. 1117-1122 Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2010.05.006

There are many definitions of ignorance in the context of risk assessment and risk management. Most refer to situations in which there are lack of knowledge. poor basis for probability assignments and possible outcomes not (fully) known. The purpose of this paper is to discuss the ignorance concept in this setting. Based on a set of risk and uncertainty features, we establish conceptual structures characterising the level of ignorance. These features include the definition of chances (relative frequency-interpreted probabilities) and the existence of scientific uncertainties. Based on these structures, we suggest a definition of ignorance linked to scientific uncertainties, i.e. the lack of understanding of how consequences of the activity are influenced by the underlying factors. In this way, ignorance can be viewed as a condition for applying the precautionary principle. The discussion is also linked to the use and boundaries of risk assessments in the case of large uncertainties, and the methods for classifying risk and uncertainty problems. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reliability, Risk and Safety. Theory and Applications p. 975-979

Safety, reliability and risk analysis : theory, methods and applications / editors: S. Martorell [et al.] p. 323-330