An inaugural lecture is a formal lecture given by a newly appointed professor or teaching professor to mark their official start in the role. It is an opportunity to present their research and academic journey to colleagues, students, and the public.

Abstract

Uncertainty has always been an unavoidable fact of life, but with the current geopolitical instability, accelerating developments in artificial intelligence, and the looming threat of climate change, uncertainty is front and center. In this talk I review what I have learned about uncertainty and uncertainty communication over the last 15 years. Uncertainty can be communicated using words (I am quite certain, it is likely), numbers (there is a 10% probability, I’m 80% sure), or a set of outcomes (the sea level will rise 20-60 cm, I think France or Spain will win the World Cup). How uncertainty is expressed matters, but in general, uncertainty is psychologically uncomfortable and is often seen as a signal of a lack of knowledge. This creates a dilemma for politicians, business leaders, and other decision makers who may wish to be open and honest about uncertainty, but can expect to be seen as less competent, and to have less influence on others if they admit uncertainty than if they pretend certainty. These social and reputational consequences of uncertainty can explain how highly confident but incompetent individuals can end up as leaders. I argue that decision makers should meet uncertainty with confidence, not by exaggerating their certainty but by being clear about what they do not know and what they will do to find out. At the same time, we should all train ourselves to meet others’ certainty with doubt.

About Professor Erik Løhre

Erik Løhre is a professor at the Department of Leadership and Organizational Behavior at BI Norwegian Business School. Erik received his PhD in Psychology from Simula Research Laboratory and the University of Oslo in 2015, and has worked as a postdoc at Simula Research Laboratory, and as associate professor at the Inland Norway University of Applied Sciences in Lillehammer before starting at BI in 2020. Erik does research in the intersection between judgment and decision making and social psychology, and uses a quantitative experimental approach. His overarching research topic is uncertainty and uncertainty communication. Erik is interested in how people understand uncertainty, how we react to others who express uncertainty in different ways, and in how people can make better (or worse) decisions.