26 June 2026
Last week, Associate Professor Erna Engebrethsen presented research at the 16th Maritime Law and Policy International Postgraduate Research Conference in London.
Associate Professor Erna Engebrethsen from AMOR Trade & Transport at BI Norwegian Business School presented the research project "From Regulation to Strategy: How FuelEU Maritime Impacts the Norwegian Shipping Fleet" at the 16th Maritime Law and Policy International Postgraduate Research Conference in London. The study, funded by Oslo Maritime Foundation and conducted by the AMOR team, led by Associate Professor Ellen Eftestøl, examines how FuelEU Maritime will affect Norwegian inbound and outbound logistics flows.
Associate Professor Erna Engebrethsen presenting at the 16th Maritime Law and Policy International Postgraduate Research Conference, London 2026
FuelEU Maritime introduces progressive greenhouse gas intensity requirements (Well-to-Wake) for commercial vessels above 5,000 GT, tightening from 2025 through 2050, alongside onshore power supply (OPS) mandates from 2030/2035. As the regulation has not yet been incorporated into Norwegian law, voyages between Norway and EU member states are treated as third-country voyages, placing 50% of energy consumption within the regulation's scope.
Compliance responsibility rests with the DOC holder (the technically responsible entity) and cannot be transferred, even if financial costs are commercially allocated between owners and charterers.
The AMOR team used the National Freight Model (NGM) to simulate logistics costs, emissions and modal split impacts of FuelEU regulations for 2025 and 2035 penalty levels.
The main findings of the analysis indicate:
Pay-to-comply strategy: FuelEU penalty levels will exceed EU ETS costs, with potential freight cost increases of 20–60% for various shipping segments by 2035.
Biofuels: Could reduce cost increases to 14–27%, though market price volatility remains a significant uncertainty.
Structural effects: Substantial shipping cost increases may trigger modal shifts toward road transport or smaller, exempt vessels.
The research identifies methanol as the most promising renewable fuel currently available. OPS holds significant decarbonization potential, estimated at 0.2 million tonnes of CO₂ annually in Norway and 5 million tonnes across Europe, though the cost savings potential depends heavily on local electricity prices.
AMOR Trade & Transport concludes that FuelEU Maritime will impact shipping logistics. For operators and cargo owners seeking to avoid the steepest costs, there is clear value in adapting fleet structures, fuel strategies, and transport routes now rather than waiting until 2035, exploiting the banking and borrowing mechanisms, giving rise for new business models and decisions related to internal and external pooling options.
Funded by Oslo Maritime Foundation.