Department of Economics

Management science Doi: https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2024.08149

We use a unique data set of individual housing transaction histories from Norway and a novel shift-share design to show that temporary changes in the transaction sequencing decisions of moving homeowners—whether to buy first and then sell or vice versa—cause temporary local increases in house prices and seller liquidity. Our findings are consistent with a simple theory of how transaction sequencing decisions impact house prices in a frictional housing market. We also provide the first causal estimate of the elasticity of house prices to market tightness, which is around 0.1. Overall, our findings highlight the importance of trading frictions and supply-demand imbalances for housing market dynamics. This paper was accepted by Bo Becker, finance. Funding: This work was supported by Norges Forskningsråd [Grant 274678: Frictions in the Housing Market]. Supplemental Material: The online appendix and data files are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2024.08149 .

Handelshøyskolen BI

Building on recent advances in Natural Language Processing and modeling of sequences, we study how a multimodal Transformer-based deep learning architecture can be used for measurement and structural narrative attribution in macroeconomics. The framework we propose combines (news) text and (macroeconomic) time series information using cross-attention mechanisms, easily incorporates differences in data frequencies and reporting delays, and can be used together with Reinforcement Learning to produce structurally coherent summaries of high-frequency news flows. Applied and tested on both simulated and real-world data out-of-sample, the results we obtain are encouraging.

Aquaculture p. 743735-743735 Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aquaculture.2026.743735

It is well known that innovation and productivity growth as well as spread of this knowledge have been instrumental in the growth of the aquaculture industry. Moreover, in the case of salmon there is solid evidence that industry clusters have been important for this development, and there exist strong indications in the form of regional clustering that agglomeration externalities are important in the aquaculture industry also in other countries. This would not be surprising, as this a general key characteristic of innovative and growing industries. However, there exist little in-depth knowledge of how industry clusters develop and work in the aquaculture industry in general or for salmon in particular. In this paper we provide a description of probably the most important localized industry cluster in the Norwegian salmon industry value chain in terms of scale and scope, the one in Rogaland county, and show how its interaction with the local agriculture industry was initially highly important, and how the petroleum industry provides a more recent source of knowledge transfer.

International Journal of Forecasting Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2025.11.005

We provide the theoretical foundation for the recent tests of equal forecast accuracy and encompassing by Pitarakis (2023) and Pitarakis (2025), when the competing forecast specification is that of a factor-augmented regression model. This should be of interest to practitioners, as there is no theory justifying the use of these simple and powerful tests in such a context. In pursuit of this, we employ a novel theory to incorporate the empirically well-documented fact of homogeneously/heterogeneously weak factor loadings, and track their effect on the forecast comparison problem.

The American Economic Review 116(1) p. 189-208 Doi: https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20231104

Judge IV designs rely on monotonicity—each judge being weakly stricter than more lenient judges in all cases. I measure monotonicity in judicial panels in five different settings and find that it is violated in up to 50 percent of nonunanimous cases. The monotonicity violations are not detected by conventional tests, but they would typically induce little bias in judge IV estimates. (JEL C26, K41, K42, O17)