Petter Nesser

BBC News, Science & Environment

Perspectives on Terrorism (PT)

The article examines the extent to which Islamic State (IS) has affected jihadi terrorism in Europe. We look at the scope of attack activity, perpetrators and their networks, modus operandi and funding. For all the talk of a new threat we argue that, apart from scope, less is new than most assume. IS wants largely the same as al-Qaida did by attacking Europe. Their tactics are similar and their networks overlap in time and space. The core dynamics of the threat endure. It is premature to talk of a new paradigm in recruitment, but more terrorists are instructed online than before. Patterns in funding remain relatively stable, but there is an increase in plots financed from abroad. Despite military setbacks, IS remains a formidable terrorist actor, with territorial control, economic muscle and thousands of Europeans in its ranks. These things, combined with the group’s skillful social media usage, are exhausting European security services’ capacities. So is the refugee situation, which is exploited by IS to transfer personnel. If IS’s territorial control persists, we foresee attempts at large-scale operations, including attempts at using improvised chemical or radiological devices. If IS continues to lose ground, small-scale attacks by single actors will become even more frequent.

C Hurst & Co Publishers Ltd

Perspectives on Terrorism (PT)

How much of a terrorist threat does the Islamic State (IS) pose to Western countries? This article looks at what IS has said and done with regard to attacks in the West. We examine IS statements and take stock of IS-related attack plots in Western Europe, North America, and Australia from January 2011 through June 2015 using a new dataset of jihadi plots and a new typology of links between organizations and attackers. IS appears to have had a decentralized attack strategy based on encouraging sympathiser attacks while not mounting centrally directed operations of their own. There have also been more plots involving only IS sympathisers than plots involving returned foreign fighters. However, the organization’s formidable resources and verbal hints at future attacks give reason for vigilance.

Nytt Norsk Tidsskrift (NNT) p. 399-416

Studies in Conflict and Terrorism 37(5) p. 440-456 Doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2014.893405

Perspectives on Terrorism (PT)

This article provides the most thorough overview yet of how jihadis have plotted terrorist attacks in Europe. Drawing on a database of 122 incidents, we review trends in weapon types, attack types and target types in the period 1994–2013. The overall finding is that jihadi terrorism in Europe is becoming more discriminate in its targeting while attack types and weapons are becoming progressively more diverse. The most likely scenarios in the coming three to five years are bomb attacks and armed assaults against sub-national entities, communities and individuals. A majority of the terrorist attacks will be limited in scope, but mass-casualty terrorism cannot be excluded. Foreign fighters from Syria are likely to influence the threat level in Europe, but we do not expect them to alter patterns in modus operandi dramatically.

Die Welt des Islams: International Journal for the Study of Modern Islam 53(3-4) p. 416-448 Doi: https://doi.org/10.1163/15685152-5334P0005

Terrorism and Political Violence 23(2) p. 173-200 Doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/09546553.2010.537587

Terrorism and Political Violence 20(2) p. 234-256 Doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/09546550801920758

This article examines, compares, and contrasts the ways in which "global jihadis" have trained for terrorism in Western Europe. Before the invasion of Afghanistan, the terrorists received training in Al Qaeda paramilitary camps. After invasion, they had to find alternative training methods and arenas. It is widely assumed that the Internet has taken over the role of the Afghan camps. The current survey suggests that the Internet's role as a "virtual training camp" might be overstated. Although the Net has become an important tool for terrorists on many levels, they maintain an urge to obtain real-life, military-style training in jihadi combat zones. Despite difficulties and risks, many of today's terrorists attend terrorist training facilities in Pakistan or other places. The main characteristic of training practices after the invasion of Afghanistan seems to be that, from an organizational perspective, the push for training and preparation comes from "below" rather than from "above.".

Studies in Conflict and Terrorism 31(10) p. 924-946 Doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/10576100802339185

Hvor hender det?

Undervisning for Sjefskurset om europeisk jihadisme

Foredrag for Nansenskolen om europeisk jihadisme

Hvor hender det?

Naval Postgraduate School

Kings College

Stanford University

Royal Danish defence College

Norwegian Atlantic Committee

NCTV Magazine

Al-Qaeda Transformed: The Core, Its Affiliates, and Their Splinters

FFI-forum, Oslo militære Samfund, 28. oktober 2014.

UNGDOMMENS DIGITALE LIV– PÅ GODT OG VONDT

Radikaliseringskonferanse

Saladindagene

2nd Elcano Forum on Global Terrorism: “Transformations of Global Terrorism

Kontraterrorforum

Seminar

Sårbarhetskonferansen

Foredrag for Justis og Beredskapsdepartementet i arbeid med ny handlingsplan mot ekstremisme og voldelig radikalisering

Foredrag for Militært symposium i operasjonsanalyse, Olavsgaard

Politihøgskolen

Majorstua Rotary

Tverrpolitisk møte om terrorberedskap arrangert av Øvre Romerike Forsvarsforening

Konsortium for forskning på terrorisme og internasjonal kriminalitet

Workshop om studie om nettradikalisering på oppdrag fra JD

Foredrag på konferanse om høyreekstremisme i regi av Antirasistisk senter, Litteraturhuset

Foredrag for KRÅDs heldagskonferanse, Kristiansand

Foredrag om bruk av primærkilder i terrorforskning for studenter og forskere ved Leiden-universitetet i Haag

Foredrag for underavdeling i Justis og Beredskapsdepartementet i arbeid med ny handlingsplan mot ekstremisme og voldelig radikalisering

Undervisning på masterstudiet ved Politihøgskolen

Revolution and Revolt

Perspectives on Terrorism (PT) 6(6)

CTC Sentinel 5(1)

West Point

Forsvarets forskningsinstitutt

Forsvarets forskningsinstitutt

Forsvarets forskningsinstitutt

This report describes and categorizes the most typical terrorist attacks against train passengers and the passengercarryingrailway systems.Compared to other parts of the civilian infrastructure, including the transportation sector, public railway transportationhas been a relatively frequent target for terrorist attacks and threats in countries with active terrorist organisations.Furthermore, the railways have also been scene for a number of mass casualty-attacks, including several of the worstterrorist attacks in modern European history. These include the bombings of three train carriers in the LondonUnderground in July 2005, four trains at a railway station in Madrid in March 2004, at a Moscow subway station inFebruary 2004, and at the Central Station in Bologna, Italy in august 1980.The report emphasises that despite the wide variety of types of potential mass casualty attacks, most deadly terroristattacks have in fact occurred at the railway stations, and the most typical terrorist weapon remains a small bomb.

Forsvarets forskningsinstitutt

This report surveys in depth the available open source information about the ritualistic murder of the filmmaker TheoVan Gogh on the streets of Amsterdam on November 2, 2004. The report makes the case that the murder of Van Goghwas a terrorist attack implemented by an al-Qaida inspired radical Islamist group within the framework of global jihad,and not an act of religious violence by a lone fanatic. The report also argues that the invasion of Iraq was an importantmotivational factor for the assassin and his accomplices, in addition to grievances related to the Dutch government’spolicies concerning immigration and Dutch counter-terrorism measures.

Universitetet i Oslo

Forsvarets forskningsinstitutt

This report surveys the motivations for Sunni Islamist terrorism in post-millennium Europe. It provides in-depth casestudies of four terrorist plots in Europe after 2000, attributed to Sunni Islamist militants.The analysis is based mainly on the press coverage of the investigations and trials of the terrorist cells. The aim of theanalysis is to determine whether these acts of terrorism should be understood primarily within the framework of alQaida’sglobal jihad, or largely as a spill-over effect local Islamist insurgencies or “jihads” in the Middle East and NorthAfrica, or as an emerging “European jihadism” motivated by grievances generated in the European Muslim diaspora.The report provides an overview and some general observations about the recent patterns of Islamist terrorism insideEurope. The appendix of the report contains a list of thwarted terrorist plots against targets in Europe attributed toIslamist militants. It also contains profiles of radical Islamist movements, which are believed to maintain structuresinside the region.

Forsvarets forskningsinstitutt

The present report examines the terrorist threat to Norwegian water supplies. The new threat environment in the post9/11era is explored and is followed by a global survey of nearly 50 terrorist and sabotage attacks against water suppliesduring the past thirty years, collected from various chronologies and databases.The study concludes that water supplies are only of marginal interest to most terrorist organisations. The study hasfound no evidence of any successful terrorist attack using poisoning or polluting agents against large water reservoirs.There have been a small number of poison attacks against local water supplies, however, and a slightly higher numberof bomb attacks against parts of water supply infrastructure.The study recommends that more attention should be given to vulnerabilities in the local distribution systems, primarilywith regards to buildings housing typically high-risk terrorist targets