Espen Henriksen

European Economic Review 169 p. 1-29 Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2024.104829

The growth rates of the four largest European economies – France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom – have slowed in recent decades. The persistence of the slowdown suggests that a low-frequency structural change is at work. Longer life expectancy and declining fertility have led to gradually ageing populations. These demographic trends contribute to economic growth directly through aggregate savings and labor supply decisions and indirectly through distortionary taxes needed to fund pension systems. We provide a structural framework to quantify the demographic contributions to historical and future growth rates. Several reforms have been suggested to increase late-life labor supply and, through that, output growth. Our structural framework also gives a welfare measure to evaluate these proposed reforms. The welfare implications are heterogeneous across age, wealth, and income. Welfare heterogeneity offers some insights into the political economy of pension reforms and the opposition to their implementation despite the projected increase in aggregate output growth.

Samfunnsøkonomen 137(1) p. 39-60

Mange investorer velger å delegere forvaltningen av formuen sin til en forvaltningsbedrift. For eksempel har Finansdepartementet delegert gjennomføringen av forvaltningen av SPU («Oljefondet») til Norges Bank. Avkastning og risiko bestemmes da dels av de langsiktige strategiske valgene som oppdragsgiver har tatt og dels av de taktiske avvikene som forvalteren velger å ta. I denne artikkelen presenterer vi et strukturelt rammeverk for å evaluere strategiske valg og gi estimater på verdiskapingen ved disse valgene. Vi anvender dette på en beslutning i 2012 om hvordan aksjeporteføljen til SPU skulle fordeles på tvers av fire globale regioner.

Journal of Monetary Economics 93 p. 45-62 Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2017.11.005

There has been a slowdown in growth in the world’s most advanced economies. In this paper we argue that changing demographics, in particular aging populations combined with increased life expectancy, may be part of the explanation for why we observe slower growth, falling interest rates and falling productivity growth. Using Japan and the U.S. in the years prior to the financial crises as a case study, we provide estimates of the growth deficit that arises from an aging cohort structure and increasing life expectancy. We also provide projections of the impact of predictable demographic changes on future growth in the U.S. and Japan.

Journal of International Economics 92 Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2014.01.006

Journal of Monetary Economics 60(6) p. 613-631 Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2013.05.006