Centre for Applied Macroeconomics and Commodity Prices (CAMP)

2025

• Dimitris Korobilis and Leif Anders Thorsrud

  Evaluating Monetary Policy using Deviation Errors

  CAMP Working Paper 08/2025

• Eleonora Granziera, Vegard H. Larsen, Greta Meggiorini and Leonardo Melosi

  Speaking of Inflation: The Influence of Fed Speeches on Expectations

  CAMP Working Paper 07/2025

• Drago Bergholt, Øistein Røisland, Tommy Sveen and Ragnar Torvik

  Should monetary and fiscal policy pull in the same direction?

  CAMP Working Paper 06/2025

• Dimitris Korobilis

  Exploring Monetary Policy Shocks with Large-Scale Bayesian VARs

  CAMP Working Paper 05/2025

• Hilde C. Bjørnland, Jamie L. Cross and Jonas Hölz

  Re-visiting the Relationship Between Oil Prices and Monetary Policy

  CAMP Working Paper 04/2025

• Dimitris Korobilis, Emmanuel C. Mamatzakis and Vasileios Pappas

  Bayesian Nonparametric Inference in Bank Business Models with Transient and Persistent Cost Inefficiency

  CAMP Working Paper 03/2025

• Luca Gambetti, Dimitris Korobilis, John D. Tsoukalas and Francesco Zanetti

  Agreed and Disagreed Uncertainty

  CAMP Working Paper 02/2025

• Paul Labonne

  Asymmetric uncertainty: Nowcasting using skewness in real-time data

  Published in: International Journal of Forecasting

• Yoosoon Chang, Soyoung Kim, and Joon Y. Park

  How Do Macroaggregates and Income Distribution Interact Dynamically? A Novel Structural Mixed Autoregression with Aggregate and Functional Variables

  CAMP Working Paper 01/2025

2024

• Jamie L. Cross, Lennart Hoogerheide, Paul Labonne, and Herman K. van Dijk

  Flexible Negative Binomial Mixtures for Credible Mode Inference in Heterogeneous Count Data from Finance, Economics and Bioinformatics

  CAMP Working Paper 09/2024

• Ruben Aag, Hilde C. Bjørnland, and Peder Eliassen

  Forecasting oil and gas Prices: A Model Combination Approach

  CAMP Working Paper 08/2024

• Hilde C. Bjørnland, Leif Brubakk and Nicolò Maffei-Faccioli

  Piecing the puzzle: Real exchange rates and long-run fundamentals

  CAMP Working Paper 07/2024

• Dimitris Korobilis and Maximilan Schröder

  Probabilistic Quantile Factor Analysis

  Published in: Journal of Business & Economic Statistics

• Jamie L. Cross, Aubrey Poon, Wenying Yao and Dan Zhu

  A Constrained Dynamic Nelson-Siegel Model for Monetary Policy Analysis

  CAMP Working Paper 06/2024

• Halvor Mehlum, Gisle Natvik and Ragnar Torvik

  The Impossible Trinity: Competitive Markets, Free Entry, and Efficiency

  Published in: Journal of Public Economics

• Andreas Fagereng, Helene Onshuus and Kjersti N. Torstensen

  The consumption expenditure response to unemployment: Evidence from Norwegian households

  Published in: Journal of Monetary Economics

• Knut Are Aastveit, Hilde C. Bjørnland, Jamie L. Cross and Helene Olsen Kalstad

  Unveiling inflation: Oil Shocks, Supply Chain Pressures, and Expectations

  CAMP Working Paper 05/2024

• Knut Are Aastveit, Jamie Cross, Francesco Furlanetto and Herman K. Van Dijk

  Taylor Rules with Endogenous Regimes

  CAMP Working Paper 04/2024

• Dimitris Korobilis and Maximilian Schröder

  Monitoring multi-country macroeconomic risk: A quantile factor-augmented vector autoregressive (QFAVAR) approach

  Published in: Journal of Econometrics

• Hilde C. Bjørnland and Julia Skretting

  The shale oil boom and the U.S. economy: Spillovers and time-varying effects

  Published in: Journal of Applied Econometrics

• Yoosoon Chang, Steven N. Durlauf, Bo Hu and Joon Y. Park

  Accounting for Individual-Specific Heterogeneity in Intergenerational Income Mobility

  CAMP Working Paper 03/2024

• Yoosoon Chang, Fabio Gómez-Rodríguez and Christian Matthes

  The Influence of Fiscal and Monetary Policies on the Shape of the Yield Curve

  CAMP Working Paper 02/2024

• Yoosoon Chang, Yongok Choi, Chang Sik Kim, J. Isaac Miller and Joon Y. Park

  Common Trends and Country Specific Heterogeneities in Long-Run World Energy Consumption

  CAMP Working Paper 01/2024

2023

• Øistein Røisland, Tommy Sveen and Ragnar Torvik

  Samspillet mellom penge- og finanspolitikken i en liten, åpen økonomi

  Published in: Samfunnsøkonomen, 2023, Utg. 6, pp. 41-52

• Hilde C. Bjørnland, Malin C. Jensen and Leif Anders Thorsrud

  Business Cycle and Health Dynamics during the COVID-19 Pandemic. A Scandinavian Perspective

  CAMP Working Paper 15/2023

• Paul Labonne and Leif Anders Thorsrud

  Risky news and credit market sentiment

  CAMP Working Paper 14/2023

• Knut Are Aastveit, Hilde C. Bjørnland and Jamie L. Cross

  Inflation Expectations and the Pass-Through of Oil Prices

  Published in: The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2023, Vol. 105, Issue 3, pp. 733–743

• Hilde C. Bjørnland, Roberto Casarin, Marco Lorusso and Francesco Ravazzolo

  Fiscal Policy Regimes in Resource-Rich Economies

  CAMP Working Paper 13/2023

• Jamie L. Cross, Aubrey Poon and Dan Zhu

  Uncertainty and the Term Structure of Interest Rates

  CAMP Working Paper 12/2023

• Jamie Cross, Lennart Hoogerheide, Paul Labonne and Herman K. van Dijk

  Bayesian Mode Inference for Discrete Distributions in Economics and Finance

  CAMP Working Paper 11/2023

• Madison Terrell, Qazi Haque, Jamie L. Cross and Firmin Doko Tchatoka

  Monetary policy shocks and exchange rate dynamics in small open economies

  CAMP Working Paper 10/2023

• Yoosoon Chang, Ana María Herrera and Elena Pesavento

  Oil prices uncertainty, endogenous regime switching, and inflation anchoring

  Published in: Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2023, Vol. 38, Issue 6, pp. 820-839

• Stylianos Asimakopoulos, Marco Lorusso and Francesco Ravazzolo

  A Bayesian DSGE Approach to Modelling Cryptocurrency

  CAMP Working Paper 09/2023

• Fabio Canova and Kenneth Sæterhagen Paulsen

  Symbolic stationarization of dynamic equilibrium models

  Published in: Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2023, Vol. 154, 104710

• Hilde C. Bjørnland, Jamie L. Cross and Felix Kapfhammer

  The Drivers of Emission Reductions in the European Carbon Market

  CAMP Working Paper 08/2023

• Jamie L. Cross, Chenghan Hou, Gary Koop and Aubrey Poon

  Large stochastic volatility in mean VARs

  Published in: Journal of Econometrics, 2023, Vol. 236, Issue 1, 105469

• Øistein Røisland, Tommy Sveen and Ragnar Torvik

  The interplay between monetary and fiscal policy in a small open economy

  CAMP Working Paper 07/2023

• Dimitris Korobilis and Maximilian Schröder

  Monitoring multicountry macroeconomic risk

  CAMP Working Paper 06/2023

• Dimitris Korobilis and Maximilian Schröder

  Probabilistic Quantile Factor Analysis

  CAMP Working Paper 05/2023

• Drago Bergholt, Øistein Røisland, Tommy Sveen and Ragnar Torvik

  Monetary policy when export revenues drop

  Published in: Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 137, 102893

• Vegard Høghaug Larsen, Nicolò Maffei-Faccioli and Laura Pagenhardt

  Where do they care? The ECB in the media and inflation expectations

  CAMP Working Paper 04/2023

• Ragnar E. Juelsrud and Vegard H. Larsen

  Macroeconomic uncertainty and bank lending

  Published in: Economics Letters, 2023, Vol. 225, 111041

• Hilde C. Bjørnland, Yoosoon Chang and Jamie L. Cross

  Oil and the Stock Market Revisited: A mixed functional VAR approach

  CAMP Working Paper 03/2023

• Yoosoon Chang, Ana Maria Herrera and Elena Pesavento

  Oil Prices Uncertainty, Endogenous Regime Switching, and Inflation Anchoring

  CAMP Working Paper 02/2023

• Felix Kapfhammer

  The Economic Consequences of Effective Carbon Taxes

  CAMP Working Paper 01/2023

• Angelica Gianfreda, Francesco Ravazzolo and Luca Rossini

  Large Time-Varying Volatility Models for Hourly Electricity Prices*

  Published in: Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2023

2022

• Jan Ditzen and Francesco Ravazzolo

  Dominant Drivers of National Inflation

  CAMP Working Paper 08/2022

• Hilde C. Bjørnland

  Den økonomiske styringen av det moderne Norge: Handlingsregelen og Oljefondet

  Published in: Samfunnsøkonomene, no. 4, 2022

• Hilde C. Bjørnland

  The effect of rising energy prices amid geopolitical developments and supply disruptions

  CAMP Working Paper 07/2022

• Caroline Espegren and Jon Ellingsen

  Lost in transition? Earnings losses of displaced petroleum workers

  CAMP Working Paper 06/2022

• Ragnar E. Juelsrud and Vegard H. Larsen

  Macroeconomic uncertainty and bank lending

  CAMP Working Paper 05/2022

• André Kallåk Anundsen, Bjørnar Karlsen, Erling Røed Larsen and Leif Anders Thorsrud

  Behavioral changes in the housing market before and after the Covid-19 lockdown

  Published in: Journal of Housing Economics, 2022

• Drago Bergholt, Øistein Røisland, Tommy Sveen and Ragnar Torvik

  Monetary policy when export revenues drop

  CAMP Working Paper 04/2022

• Knut Are Aastveit, Jamie L. Cross and Herman K. van Dijk

  Quantifying Time-Varying Forecast Uncertainty and Risk for the Real Price of Oil

  Published in: Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2022

• Komla Mawulom Agudze, Monica Billio, Roberto Casarin and Francesco Ravazzolo

  Markov switching panel with endogenous synchronization effects

  Published in: Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 230, Issue 2, pp. 281-298, 2022

• Jonas Hveding Hamang

  Local economic development and oil discoveries

  CAMP Working Paper 03/2022

• Sercan Eraslan and Maximilian Schröder

  Nowcasting GDP with a pool of factor models and a fast estimation algorithm

  Forthcoming in: International Journal of Forecasting

• Julia Skretting

  Oil Windfalls and Regional Economic Performance in Russia

  CAMP Working Paper 02/2022

• Saskia ter Ellen, Vegard H. Larsen and Leif Anders Thorsrud

  Narrative monetary policy surprises and the media

  Published in: Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2022, 54(5), pp. 1525-1549.

• Lassi Ahlvik, Jørgen Juel Andersen, Jonas Hveding Hamang and Torfinn Harding

  Quantifying supply-side climate policies

  CAMP Working Paper 01/2022

• Matteo Iacopini, Francesco Ravazzolo and Luca Rossini

  Proper Scoring Rules for Evaluating Density Forecasts with Asymmetric Loss Functions

  Published in: Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, pp. 1-15, 2022

• Vegard Høghaug Larsen and Leif Anders Thorsrud

  Asset returns, news topics, and media effects

  Published in: Scandinavian Journal of Economics , 2022, 124(3), pp. 838-868.

2021

• Knut Are Aastveit, Ragnar Enger Juelsrud and Ella Getz Wold

  The household effects of mortgage regulation

  CAMP Working Paper 07/2021

• Davide Ferrari, Francesco Ravazzolo and Joaquin Vespignani

  Forecasting energy commodity prices: A large global dataset sparse approach

  Published in: Energy Economics, 2021, Vol. 98, 105268

• Jamie L. Cross, Bao H. Nguyen and Trung Duc Tran

  The Role of Precautionary and Speculative Demand in the Global Market for Crude Oil

  CAMP Working Paper 06/2021

• Jørgen Juel Andersen, Frode Martin Nordvik, and Andrea Tesei

  Oil Price Shocks and Conflict Escalation: Onshore versus Offshore

  Published in: Journal of Conflict Resolution, 2021, Vol. 66, Issue 2

• Knut Are Aastveit, Hilde C. Bjørnland and Thomas S. Gundersen

  The Price Responsiveness of Shale Producers: Evidence From Micro Data

  CAMP Working Paper 05/2021

• Jon Ellingsen, Vegard H. Larsen and Leif Anders Thorsrud

  News media versus FRED-MD for macroeconomic forecasting

  Published in: Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2021, 1– 19

• J. Isaac Miller, Hilde C. Bjørnland and Yoosoon Chang

  New Developments in the Econometric Analysis of Energy and Climate

  Published in: Energy Economics, 100, 1-3. Special issue on "Energy & Climate Econometrics"

• Jamie L. Cross, Chenghan Hou, Gary Koop and Aubrey Poon

  Macroeconomic Forecasting with Large Stochastic Volatility in Mean VARs

  Read more (+)

  CAMP Working Paper 4/2021

• Knut Are Aastveit, Jamie L. Cross and Herman K. van Dijk

  Quantifying time-varying forecast uncertainty and risk for the real price of oil

  Read more (+)

  CAMP Working Paper 3/2021

• Halvor Mehlum and Ragnar Torvik

  The macroeconomics of COVID-19: a two-sector interpretation

  Published in: Review of Keynesian Economics, 2021, Vol. 9 No. 2, Summer 2021, pp. 165–174, DOI: https://doi.org/10.4337/roke.2021.02.01

• Halvor Mehlum, Gisle Natvik and Ragnar Torvik

  The Inefficient Combination: Competitive Markets, Free Entry, and Democracy

  CAMP Working Paper 2/2021

• Fabio Canova and Christian Matthes

  A composite likelihood approach for dynamic structural models

  Published in: The Economic Journal , Vol. 131, pages 2447-2477.

• Fabio Canova and Christian Matthes

  Dealing with misspecification in macroeconometric models

  Published in: Quantitative Economics, Volume 12, Issue 2 (May 2021)

• Hilde C. Bjørnland, Frode Martin Nordvik and Maximilian Rohrer

  Supply Flexibility in the Shale Patch: Evidence from North Dakota

  Published in: Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2021; 36: 273– 292. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.2808

• Ragna Alstadheim, Hilde C. Bjørnland and Junior Maih

  Do Central Banks Respond to Exchange Rate Movements? A Markov-Switching Structural Investigation of Commodity Exporters and Importers

  Published in: Energy Economics, Volume 96, 2021, 105138, ISSN 0140-9883, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2021.10513zz

• Ragnar Torvik

  Formal Institutions and Development in Low-Income Countries: Positive and Normative Theory

  Published in: The Handbook of Economic Development and Institutions, edited by Jean-Marie Baland, François Bourguignon, Jean-Philippe Platteau and Thierry Verdier, Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2020, pp. 103-136. https://doi.org/10.1515/9780691192017-005

• Thomas S. Gundersen and Even S. Hvinden

  OPEC’s Crude Game: Strategic Competition and Regime-switching in Global Oil Markets

  CAMP Working Paper Series No 1/2021

• Vegard Høghaug Larsen

  Components of uncertainty

  Published in: International Economic Review, Vol. 62, No. 2, May 2021 DOI: 10.1111/iere.12499

2020

• Ragna Alstadheim, Hilde C. Bjørnland and Junior Maih

  Do Central Banks Respond to Exchange Rate Movements? A Markov-Switching Structural Investigation of Commodity Exporters and Importers

  CAMP Working Paper Series No 12/2020

• Hilde C. Bjørnland, Roberto Casarin, Marco Lorusso and Francesco Ravazzolo

  Oil and Fiscal Policy Regimes

  CAMP Working Paper Series No 11/2020

• Felix Kapfhammer, Vegard H. Larsen and Leif Anders Thorsrud

  Climate Risk and Commodity Currencies

  CAMP Working Paper Series No 10/2020

• Jamie Cross, Bo Zhang and Na Guo

  Time-Varying Trend Models for Forecasting Inflation in Australia

  CAMP Working Paper Series No 09/2020

• Jon Ellingsen, Vegard H. Larsen and Leif Anders Thorsrud

  News media vs. FRED-MD for macroeconomic forecasting

  CAMP Working Paper Series No 08/2020

• André Kallåk Anundsen, Bjørnar Karlsen Kivedal, Erling Røed Larsen and Leif Anders Thorsrud

  Behavioral changes and policy effects during Covid-19

  CAMP Working Paper Series No 07/2020

• Matteo Iacopini, Francesco Ravazzolo and Luca Rossini

  Proper scoring rules for evaluating asymmetry in density forecasting

  CAMP Working Paper Series No 06/2020

• Angelica Gianfreda, Francesco Ravazzolo and Luca Rossini

  Large Time-Varying Volatility Models for Electricity Prices

  CAMP Working Paper Series No 05/2020

• Halvor Mehlum and Ragnar Torvik

  Macroeconomics in the time of the Corona

  CAMP Working Paper Series No 04/2020

• Knut Are Aastveit, Hilde C. Bjørnland and Jamie L. Cross

  Inflation expectations and the pass-through of oil prices

  CAMP Working Paper Series No 03/2020

• Carlo Altavilla, Fabio Canova and Matteo Ciccarelli

  Mending the broken link: heterogeneous bank lending and monetary policy pass-through.

  Published in: Journal  of  Monetary Economics, Volume 110, April 2020, Pages 81-98

• Francesco Ravazzolo and Joaquin L. Vespignani

  World steel production: A new monthly indicator of global real economic activity

  Published in: Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, 53: 743-766. doi:10.1111/caje.12442

• Halvor Mehlum, Ragnar Torvik and Simone Valente

  Growth with Age-Dependent Preferences

  Published in: Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 2020

• Vegard H. Larsen, Leif Anders Thorsrud and Julia Zhulanova

  News-driven inflation expectations and information rigidities

  Published in: Journal of Monetary Economics, 2020,

• Jamie L. Cross, Chenghan Hou and Aubrey Poon

  Macroeconomic Forecasting with Large Bayesian VARs: Global-local priors and the Illusion of Sparsity

  Published in: International Journal of Forecasting, Volume 36, Issue 3, July–September 2020, Pages 899-915

• Fabio Canova, Filippo Ferroni and Christian Matthes

  Detecting and Analyzing the Effects of Time-Varying Parameters in DSGE Models

  Published in: International Economic Review, Vol. 61, No. 1, February 2020

• Helene Olsen and Harald Wieslander

  The Impact of Monetary Policy on Leading Variables for Financial Stability in Norway

  CAMP Working Paper Series No 02/2020

• Hilde C. Bjørnland, Leif Anders Thorsrud and Sepideh K. Zahiri

  Do central banks respond timely to developments in the global economy?

  Published in: Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2020, 82: 285-310. 

• Isabel Hovdahl

  Deadly Variation: The Effect of Temperature Variability on Mortality

  CAMP Working Paper Series No 01/2020

2019

• Thomas S. Gundersen

  The Impact of U.S. Supply Shocks on the Global Oil Price

  Published in: The Energy Journal, 2020, Vol. 41

• Davide Ferrari, Francesco Ravazzolo and Joaquin Vespignani

  Forecasting Energy Commodity Prices: A Large Global Dataset Sparse Approach

  CAMP Working Paper Series No 11/2019

• Even Comfort Hvinden

  OPEC's crude game: The supply curve in a dynamic, strategic environment

  CAMP Working Paper Series No 10/2019 

• Andrew Binning, Hilde C. Bjørnland and Junior Maih

  Is Monetary Policy Always Effective? Incomplete Interest Rate Pass-through in a DSGE Model

  CAMP Working Paper Series No 09/2019

• Hilde C. Bjørnland

  Supply flexibility in the shale patch: Facts, no fiction

  CAMP Working Paper Series No 08/2019

• Stylianos Asimakopoulos, Marco Lorusso, and Francesco Ravazzolo

  A New Economic Framework: A DSGE Model with Cryptocurrency

  CAMP Working Paper Series No 07/2019

• Saskia ter Ellen, Vegard H. Larsen and Leif Anders Thorsrud

  Narrative monetary policy surprises and the media

  CAMP Working Paper Series No 06/2019

• Frode Martin Nordvik

  Does Oil Promote or Prevent Coups? The Answer is Yes

  Published in: The Economic Journal, 2019, Vol. 129, Issue 619, pp. 1425–1456

• Kenichiro McAlinn, Knut Are Aastveit, Jouchi Nakajima and Mike West

  Multivariate Bayesian Predictive Synthesis in Macroeconomic Forecasting

  Published in: Journal of the American Statistical Association (JASA), 2019

• Jamie Cross and Aubrey Poon

  On the contribution of international shocks in Australian business cycle fluctuations

  Published in: Empirical Economics, 2019, pp. 1-25.

• Ragnar Torvik

  Ny teknologi, produktivitetsvekst og renter

  Published in: Samfunnsøkonomene, 2019, Vol. 133, pp. 40-48

• Hilde C. Bjørnland, Leif Anders Thorsrud and Ragnar Torvik

  Dutch Disease Dynamics Reconsidered

  Published in: European Economic Review, 2019, Vol.119, pp. 411-433.

• Knut Are Aastveit, André K. Anundsen and Eyo Herstad

  Residential investment and recession predictability

  Published in: International Journal of Forecasting:: 2019, Vol. 35(4), pp. 1790-1799

• Drago Bergholt, Vegard H. Larsen and Martin Seneca

  Business Cycles In An Oil Economy

  Published in: Journal of International Money and Finance, 2019, 96, pp. 283-303.

• Leopoldo Catania, Stefano Grassi and Francesco Ravazzolo

  Forecasting Cryptocurrencies under Model and Parameter Instability

  Published in: International Journal of Forecasting 35 (2019) pp. 485–501

• Vegard H. Larsen and Leif Anders Thorsrud

  The Value of News for Economic Developments

  Published in: Journal of Econometrics Volume 210, Issue 1, May 2019, Pages 203-218

• Hilde C. Bjørnland and Leif Anders Thorsrud

  Commodity Prices and Fiscal Policy Design: Procyclical Despite a Rule

  Published in: Journal of Applied Econometrics  34(2), 2019,  pp. 161-180

• Leif Anders Thorsrud

  Words are the new numbers. A newsy coincident index of the business cycle

  Publised in: Journal of Business & Economic Statistics , 2018

• Isabel Hovdahl

  On the use of machine learning for causal inference in climate economics

  CAMP Working Paper Series No 05/2019

• Knut Are Aastveit, Bruno Albuquerque and André Anundsen

  Changing supply elasticities and regional housing booms

  CAMP Working Paper Series No 04/2019

• Vegard H. Larsen, Leif Anders Thorsrud and Julia Zhulanova

  News-driven inflation expectations and information rigidities

  CAMP Working Paper Series No 03/2019

• Jamie Cross, Bao H. Nguyen and Bo Zhang

  New Kid on the Block? China vs the US in World Oil Markets

  CAMP Working Paper Series No 02/2019

• Kenichiro McAlinn, Knut Are Aastveit, Jouchi Nakajima and Mike West

  Multivariate Bayesian Predictive Synthesis in Macroeconomic Forecasting

  CAMP Working Paper Series No 01/2019

2018

• Halvor Mehlum, Ragnar Torvik and Simone Valente

  Growth with Age-Dependent Preferences

  CAMP Working Paper Series No 14/2018

• Fabio Canova and Filippo Ferroni

  Mind the gap! Stylized dynamic facts and structural models

  CAMP Working Paper Series No 13/2018

• Jamie L. Cross, Chenghan Hou and Aubrey Poon

  International Transmission of Macroeconomic Uncertainty in Small Open Economies: An Empirical Approach

  CAMP Working Paper Series No 12/2018

• Jamie L. Cross, Chenghan Hou and Bao H. Nguyen

  On the China factor in international oil markets: A regime switching approach

  CAMP Working Paper Series No 11/2018

• Leopoldo Catania, Stefano Grassi and Francesco Ravazzolo

  Predicting the Volatility of Cryptocurrency Time-Series

  Published in: Mathematical and Statistical Methods for Actuarial Sciences and Finance, 2018, pp 203-207

• Hilde C. Bjørnland, Vegard H. Larsen and Junior Maih

  Oil and macroeconomic (in)stability

  Published in: American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2018, 10(4): 128–151

• Fabio Canova and Christian Matthes

  A composite likelihood approach for dynamic structural models

  CAMP Working Paper Series No 10/2018

• Hilde C. Bjørnland and Julia Zhulanova

  The Shale Oil Boom and the U.S. Economy: Spillovers and Time-Varying Effects

  CAMP Working Paper Series No 8/2018

• Thomas S. Gundersen

  The Impact of U.S. Supply Shocks on the Global Oil Price

  CAMP Working Paper Series No 7/2018

• Vegard H. Larsen and Leif Anders Thorsrud

  Business cycle narratives

  CAMP Working Paper Series No 6/2018

• Leopoldo Catania, Stefano Grassi and Francesco Ravazzolo

  Forecasting Cryptocurrencies Financial Time Series

  CAMP Working Paper Series No 5/2018

• Hilde C. Bjørnland, Leif Anders Thorsrud and Ragnar Torvik

  Dutch Disease Dynamics Reconsidered

  CAMP Working Paper Series No 4/2018

• Leopoldo Catania, Stefano Grassi and Francesco Ravazzolo

  Predicting the Volatility of Cryptocurrency Time–Series

  CAMP Working Paper Series No 3/2018

• Angelica Gianfreda, Francesco Ravazzolo and Luca Rossini

  Comparing the Forecasting Performances of Linear Models for Electricity Prices with High RES Penetration

  CAMP Working Paper Series No 2/2018

• Fabio Canova and Mehdi Hamidi Sahneh

  Are Small-Scale SVARs Useful for Business Cycle Analysis? Revisiting Non-Fundamentalness

  Published in: Journal of the European Economic Association, 2018, Vol. 16(4), pp.1069-1093

• Ragnar Torvik

  Should Developing Countries Establish Petroleum Funds?

  Published in: The Energy Journal, 2018, Vol.39(4)

• Komla Mawulom Agudze, Monica Billio, Roberto Casarin and Francesco Ravazzolo

  Markov Switching Panel with Network Interaction Effects

  CAMP Working Paper Series No 1/2018

2017

• Massimiliano Caporin, Loriana Pelizzon, Francesco Ravazzolo and Roberto Rigobon

  Measuring sovereign contagion in Europe

  Published in: Journal of Financial Stability, 2017, vol 34, 150-181

• Andrew Binning and Junior Maih

  Modelling Occasionally Binding Constraints Using Regime-Switching

  CAMP Working Paper Series No 9/2017

• Knut Are Aastveit, André K. Anundsen and Eyo I. Herstad

  Residential investment and recession predictability

  CAMP Working Paper Series No 8/2017

• Knut Are Aastveit and André K. Anundsen

  Asymmetric effects of monetary policy in regional housing markets

  CAMP Working Paper Series No 7/2017

• Hilde C. Bjørnland, Vegard H. Larsen, Junior Maih

  Oil and macroeconomic (in)stability

  CAMP Working Paper Series No 6/2017

• Vegard Høghaug Larsen and Leif Anders Thorsrud

  Asset returns, news topics, and media effects

  CAMP Working Paper Series No 5/2017

• Jørgen Juel Andersen and Mads Greaker

  Emission Trading with Fiscal Externalities: The Case for a Common Carbon Tax for the Non-ETS Emissions in the EU

  Published in: Environmental and Resource Economics, 2017, 1–21

• Vegard Høghaug Larsen

  Components of Uncertainty

  CAMP Working Paper Series No 4/2017

• James A. Robinson, Ragnar Torvik and Thierry Verdier

  The political economy of public income volatility: with an application to the resource curse

  Published in: Journal of Public Economics, 2017, vol. 145(C), 243-252

• Jørgen Juel Andersen, Niels Johannesen, David Dreyer Lassen and Elena Paltseva

  Petro Rents, Political Institutions, and Hidden Wealth: Evidence from Offshore Bank Accounts

  Published in: Journal of the European Economic Association, 2017, vol 15(4), 818–860

• Hilde C. Bjørnland, Francesco Ravazzolo and Leif Anders Thorsrud

  Forecasting GDP with global components. This time is different

  Published in: International Journal of Forecasting, 2017, vol. 33(1), 153-173

• Fabian Kruger, Todd E. Clark and Francesco Ravazzolo

  Using Entropic Tilting to Combine BVAR Forecasts with External Nowcasts

  Published in: Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2017, vol. 35 (3), 470-485

• Ragnar Torvik

  Should Developing Countries Establish Petroleum Funds?

  CAMP Working Paper Series No 3/2017

• Knut Are Aastveit, Claudia Foroni and Francesco Ravazzolo

  Density Forecasts with MIDAS Models

  Published in: Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2017, vol 32(4), 783–801

• Hilde C. Bjørnland, Frode Martin Nordvik, Maximilian Rohrer

  Supply Flexibility in the Shale Patch: Evidence from North Dakota

  CAMP Working Paper Series No 2/2017

• Jørgen Juel Andersen, Frode Martin Nordvik, Andrea Tesei

  Oil and Civil conflict: On and off (shore)

  CAMP Working Paper Series No 1/2017

2016

• Knut Are Aastveit, Hilde C. Bjørnland and Leif Anders Thorsrud

  The world is not enough! Small open economies and regional dependence

  Published in: Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 2016 vol. 118(1), 168-195

• Carlo Altavilla, Fabio Canova, Matteo Ciccarelli

  Mending the broken link: heterogeneous bank lending and monetary policy pass-through

  CAMP Working Paper Series No 9/2016 (.pdf)

• Hilde C. Bjørnland, Leif Anders Thorsrud, Sepideh Khayati Zahiri

  Do central banks respond timely to developments in the global economy?

  CAMP Working Paper Series No 8/2016

• Francesco Ravazzolo, Tommy Sveen, Sepideh K. Zahiri

  Commodity Futures and Forecasting Commodity Currencies

  CAMP Working Paper Series No 7/2016.

• Leif Anders Thorsrud

  Nowcasting using news topics Big Data versus big bank

  CAMP Working Paper Series No 6/2016.

• Francesco Ravazzolo and Philip Rothman

  Oil-Price Density Forecasts of U.S. GDP

  Published in: Studies of Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics. 2016, vol. 20(4), 441-453

• Davide Pettenuzzu and Francesco Ravazzolo

  OPTIMAL PORTFOLIO CHOICE UNDER DECISION-BASED MODEL COMBINATIONS

  Published in: Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2016, Vol 31(7)

• Marco J. Lombardi and Francesco Ravazzolo

  On the correlation between commodity and equity returns: Implications for portfolio allocation

  Published in: Journal of Commodity Markets, 2016, Vol 2(1), 45-57

• Halvor Mehlum, Ragnar Torvik and Simone Valente

  The Savings Multiplier

  Published in: Journal of Monetary Economics, 2016, vol. 83(C), 90-105

• Egil Matsen, Gisle J. Natvik and Ragnar Torvik

  Petro populism

  Published in: Journal of Development Economics, 2016, vol. 118, 1-12

• Monica Billio, Roberto Casarin, Francesco Ravazzolo and Herman K. Van Dijk

  Interconnections Between Eurozone and US Booms and Busts Using a Bayesian Panel Markov-Switching VAR Model

  Published in: Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2016, Vol 31(7), 1352–1370

• Marco J. Lombardi and Francesco Ravazzolo

  Oil price density forecasts: Exploring the linkages with stock markets

  Published in: Journal of Commodity Markets, 2016, Vol 2(1), 45-57

• Farooq Akram, Andrew Binning, Junior Maih

  Joint Prediction Bands for Macroeconomic Risk Management

  CAMP Working Paper Series No 5/2016.

• Leif Anders Thorsrud

  Words are the new numbers: A newsy coincident index of business cycles

  CAMP Working Paper Series No 4/2016.

• Hilde C. Bjørnland and Leif Anders Thorsrud

  Boom or Gloom? Examining the Dutch disease in two-speed economies

  Published in: Economic Journal, 2016, vol 126(598), 2219–2256

• Andrew Binning, Junior Maih

  Implementing the Zero Lower Bound in an Estimated Regime-Switching DSGE Model

  CAMP Working Paper Series No 3/2016.

• Fabio Canova, Mehdi Hamidi Sahneh

  Are Small-Scale SVARs Useful for Business Cycle Analysis? Revisiting Non-Fundamentalness

  CAMP Working Paper Series No 2/2016.

• Fabio Canova, Filippo Ferroni, Christian Matthes

  Approximating time-varying structural models with time-invariant structures

  CAMP Working Paper Series No 1/2016.

2015

• Andrew Binning, Junior Maih

  Applying Flexible Parameter Restrictions in Markov-Switching Vector Autoregression Models

  CAMP Working Paper Series No 12/2015.

• Drago Bergholt

  Foreign shocks

  CAMP Working Paper Series No 11/2015.

• Francesco Ravazzolo, Philip Rothman

  Oil-Price Density Forecasts of U.S. GDP

  CAMP Working Paper Series No 10/2015.

• Davide Pettenuzzo, Francesco Ravazzolo

  Optimal Portfolio Choice under Decision-Based Model Combinations

  CAMP Working Paper Series No 9/2015.

• Fabian Krüger, Todd E. Clark, Francesco Ravazzolo

  Using Entropic Tilting to Combine BVAR Forecasts with External Nowcasts

  CAMP Working Paper Series No 8/2015.

• Hilde C. Bjørnland, Vegard H. Larsen

  Oil and macroeconomic (in)stability

  CAMP Working Paper Series No 7/2015.

• Vegard H. Larsen, Leif Anders Thorsrud

  The Value of News

  CAMP Working Paper Series No 6/2015.

• Hilde C. Bjørnland, Leif Anders Thorsrud

  Commodity prices and fiscal policy design: Procyclical despite a rule

  CAMP Working Paper Series No 5/2015.

• Andrew Binning, Junior Maih

  Sigma Point Filters For Dynamic Nonlinear Regime Switching Models

  CAMP Working Paper Series No 4/2015.

• James A. Robinson, Ragnar Torvik, Thierry Verdier

  The Political Economy of Public Income Volatility: With an Application to the Resource Curse

  CAMP Working Paper Series No 3/2015.

• Francesco Ravazzolo, Joaquin L. Vespignani

  A new Monthly Indicator of Global Real Economic Activity

  CAMP Working Paper Series No 2/2015.

• Knut Are Aastveit, Hilde C. Bjørnland and Leif Anders Thorsrud

  What drives oil prices? Emerging versus Developed Economies

  Published in: Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2015 vol. 30(7), 1013-1028.

• Lars-Erik Borge, Pernille Parmer and Ragnar Torvik

  Local Natural Resource Curse?

  Published in: Journal of Public Economics, 2015, vol. 131, 101-114

• Hilde C. Bjørnland, Francesco Ravazzolo, Leif Anders Thorsrud

  Forecasting GDP with global components. This time is different.

  CAMP Working Paper Series No 1/2015 (.pdf)

2014

• Junior Maih

  Efficient Perturbation Methods for Solving Regime-Switching DSGE Models

  CAMP Working Paper Series No 10/2014.

• Jørgen Juel Andersen, Mads Greaker

  The Fiscal Incentive of GHG Cap and Trade: Permits May Be Too Cheap and Developed Countries May Abate Too Little

  CAMP Working Paper Series No 9/2014.

• Monica Billio, Roberto Casarin, Francesco Ravazzolo, Herman K. van Dijk

  Interactions between eurozone and US booms and busts: A Bayesian panel Markov-switching VAR model

  CAMP Working Paper Series No 8/2014.

• Frode Martin Nordvik

  Does Oil Promote or Prevent Coups?

  CAMP Working Paper Series No 7/2014.

• Hilde C. Bjørnland, Leif Anders Thorsrud

  Boom or Gloom? Examining the Dutch Disease in Two-Speed Economies

  CAMP Working Paper Series No 6/2014.

• Drago Bergholt

  Monetary Policy in Oil Exporting Economies

  CAMP Working Paper Series No 5/2014.

• Drago Bergholt

  Foreign Shocks in an Estimated Multi-Sector Model

  CAMP Working Paper Series No 4/2014.

• Knut Are Aastveit, Karsten R. Gerdrup, Anne Sofie Jore, and Leif Anders Thorsrud

  Nowcasting GDP in Real Time: A Density Combination Approach

  Published in: Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, 2014, vol. 32(1), 48-68

• Hilde C. Bjørnland and Jørn Inge Halvorsen

  How does monetary policy respond to exchange rate movements? New international evidence

  Published in: Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2014, vol. 76(2),  208-232

• Knut Are Aastveit, Claudia Foroni, Francesco Ravazzolo

  Density Forecasts with MIDAS Models

  CAMP Working Paper Series No 3/2014

• Drago Bergholt,Tommy Sveen

  Sectoral Interdependence and Business Cycle Synchronization in Small Open Economies

  CAMP Working Paper Series No 2/2014

• Egil Matsen, Gisle J. Natvik, Ragnar Torvik

  Petro Populism

  CAMP Working Paper Series No 1/2014.

2013

• Ragna Alstadheim, Hilde C. Bjørnland, Junior Maih

  Do Central Banks Respond to Exchange Rate Movements? A Markov-Switching Structural Investigation

  CAMP Working Paper Series No 9/2013.

• Jørgen Juel Andersen, Jon H. Fiva, Gisle James Natvik

  Voting when the Stakes are High

  CAMP Working Paper Series No 8/2013.

• Jørgen Juel Andersen, Niels Johannesen, David Dreyer Lassen, Elena Paltseva

  Petro Rents, Political Institutions, and Hidden Wealth: Evidence from Bank Deposits in Tax Havens

  CAMP Working Paper Series No 7/2013.

• Ida Wolden Bache, Tommy Sveen and Kjersti Næss Torstensen

  Revisiting the importance of non-tradable goods' prices in cyclical real exchange rate fluctuations

  Published in: European Economic Review, Elsevier, 2013, vol. 57(C), 98-107

• Hilde C. Bjørnland and Dag H. Jacobsen

  House prices and stock prices: Different roles in the U.S. monetary transmission mechanism

  Published in: Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 2013, vol. 115(4), 1084-1106.

• Hilde C. Bjørnland, Leif Anders Thorsrud

  Bloom or gloom? Examining the Dutch disease in a two-speed economy

  CAMP Working Paper Series No 6/2013.

• Lars-Erik Borge, Pernille Parmer, Ragnar Torvik

  Local Natural Resource Curse?

  CAMP Working Paper Series No 5/2013.

• Monica Billio, Roberto Casarin, Francesco Ravazzolo and Herman van Dijk

  Time-varying Combinations of Predictive Densities using Nonlinear Filtering

  Published in: Journal of Econometrics, 177(2), 2013, 213–232

• Halvor Mehlum, Ragnar Torvik and Simone Valente

  China's Savings Multiplier

  CAMP Working Paper Series No 4/2013.

• Leif Anders Thorsrud

  Global and regional business cycles: Shocks and propagations

  CAMP Working Paper Series No 3/2013.

• Daron Acemoglu, James A. Robinson and Ragnar Torvik

  Why do voters dismantle checks and balances?

  Published in: Review of Economic Studies, 2013, 845-875

• Daron Acemoglu, James A. Robinsen, Ragnar Torvik

  Online appendix: Why do voters dismantle checks and balances? Extensions and robustness

  CAMP Working Paper Series No 2/2013.

• Jørgen Juel Andersen and Silje Asalksen

  Oil and political survival

  Published in: Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, 2013, vol. 100(1), 89-106

• Daron Acemoglu, James A. Robinson, Ragnar Torvik

  Why do voters dismantle checks and balances?

  CAMP Working Paper Series No 1/2013.

• Francesco Ravazzolo and Philip Rothman

  Oil and U.S. GDP: A Real-Time Out-of-Sample Examination

  Published in: Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2013, Vol 45(22-3), 449-463

• James A. Robinson and Ragnar Torvik

  Institutional comparative statics

  Published in: Daron Acemoglu, Manuel Arellano and Eddie Dekel (eds.), Advances in Economics and Econometrics, 2013, Cambridge University Press: New York, 97-134

2012

• Massimiliano Caporin, Loriana Pelizzon, Francesco Ravazzolo, Roberto Rigobon

  Measuring sovereign contagion in Europe

  CAMP Working Paper Series No 4/2012.

• Marco J. Lombardi, Francesco Ravazzolo

  Oil price density forecasts: Exploring the linkages with stock markets

  CAMP Working Paper Series No 3/2012.

• Knut Are Aastveit, Hilde C. Bjørnland, Leif Anders Thorsrud

  What drives oil prices? Emerging versus developed economies

  CAMP Working Paper Series No 2/2012.

• Hilde C Bjørnland, Dag Henning Jacobsen

  House prices and stock prices: Different roles in the U.S. monetary transmission mechanism

  CAMP Working Paper Series No 1/2012.

2011

• Knut Are Aastveit, Hilde C Bjørnland, Leif Anders Thorsrud

  The world is not enough! Small open economies and regional dependence

  CAMP Working Paper Series No 3/2011.

• Francesco Ravazzolo, Philip Rothman

  Oil and US GDP: A Real-Time out-of Sample Examination

  CAMP Working Paper Series No 2/2011.

• Knut Are Aastveit, Karsten R. Gerdrup, Anne Sofie Jore, Leif Anders Thorsrud

  Nowcasting GDP in Real-Time. A Density Comintaion Approach

  CAMP Working Paper Series No 1/2011.

2010

• Hilde C. Bjørnland, Karsten Gerdrup, Anne Sofie Jore, Christie Smith, Leif Anders Thorsrud

  Does forecast combination improve Norges Bank inflation forecasts?

  CAMP Working Paper Series No 2/2010.

• Hilde C. Bjørnland and Jørn I. Halvorsen

  How does monetary policy respond to exchange rate movements? New international evidence.

  CAMP Working Paper Series No 1/2010.