Andreas Fagereng
Professor
Institutt for finans
Professor
Institutt for finans
Artikkel Andreas Fagereng, Matthieu Gomez, Emilien Gouin-Bonenfant, Martin Blomhoff Holm, Benjamin Moll, Gisle James Natvik (2025)
Asset valuations across many asset classes have increased substantially over the last several decades. While these rising valuations had important effects on the distribution of wealth, little is known regarding their redistributive effects in terms of welfare. To make progress on this question, we develop a sufficient statistic for the money-metric welfare gain of deviations in asset valuations. This welfare gain depends on the present value of an individual’s net asset sales rather than asset holdings: higher asset valuations benefit prospective sellers and harm prospective buyers. We estimate this quantity using panel microdata covering the universe of financial transactions in Norway from 1994 to 2019. We further demonstrate how to adapt our baseline statistic to account for important considerations, such as incomplete markets and collateral constraints. We find that the rise in asset valuations had large redistributive effects: it redistributed from the young to the old and from the poor to the wealthy.
Artikkel Andreas Fagereng, Helene Onshuus, Kjersti Næss Torstensen (2024)
This paper examines heterogeneity in household income and consumption responses to unemployment, using granular administrative tax data from Norway. On average, unemployment results in a significant, lasting income reduction, accompanied by a decrease in consumption expenditures of between one-third to one-half of the income loss. We find that households with greater liquid assets at the outset experience less of a decline in consumption, whereas those with higher levels of debt encounter a more substantial decrease. Notably, also the interaction of liquid assets and debt holdings matters for the consumption response. While households with larger initial liquid asset holdings on average respond less, the analyses show that this is not the case among households that simultaneously hold substantial amounts of debt, thus adding to a more nuanced view of the importance of household heterogeneity for economic outcomes. Furthermore, our investigation into heterogeneity across family composition and child age uncovers distinct patterns in consumption responses, highlighting the varied impacts of unemployment. Lastly, we find that spending patterns, as indicated by the marginal propensity to consume (MPC), become more pronounced during recessions.
Artikkel Andreas Fagereng, Martin Blomhoff Holm, Gisle James Natvik (2021)
We use sizable lottery prizes in Norwegian administrative panel data to explore how transitory income shocks are spent and saved over time, and how households’ marginal propensities to consume (MPCs) vary with household characteristics and shock size. We find that spending peaks in the year of winning and gradually reverts to normal within five years. Controlling for all items on households’ balance sheets and characteristics such as education and income, it is the amount won, age, and liquid assets that vary systematically with MPCs. Low-liquidity winners of the smallest prizes (around USD 1,500) are estimated to spend all within the year of winning. The corresponding estimate for high-liquidity winners of large prizes (USD 8,300-150,000) is slightly below one half. While conventional models will struggle to account for such high MPC levels, we show that a two-asset life-cycle model with a realistic earnings profile and a luxury bequest motive can account for both the time profile of consumption responses and their systematic co-variation with observables.
Artikkel Andreas Fagereng, Magne Mogstad, Marte Rønning (2021)
We show that family background matters significantly for children’s accumulation of wealth and investor behavior as adults, even when removing the genetic connection between children and the parents raising them. The analysis is made possible by linking Korean-born children who were adopted at infancy by Norwegian parents to a population panel data set with detailed information on wealth and socio-economic characteristics. The mechanism by which these Korean- Norwegian adoptees were assigned to adoptive families is known and effectively random. This mechanism allows us to estimate the causal effects from an adoptee being raised in one type of family versus another.
Artikkel Andreas Fagereng, Martin Blomhoff Holm, Kjersti Næss Torstensen (2021)
We provide a new estimate of household-level housing wealth in Norway between 1993 and 2015 using an ensemble machine learning method on housing transaction data. The new housing wealth measure is an improvement over existing data sources for two reasons. First, the model outperforms previously applied regression models in out-of-sample prediction precision. Second, we extend the sample of estimated housing wealth by including cooperative units, non-id apartments, and cabins.
Artikkel Andreas Fagereng, Luigi Guiso, Davide Malacrino, Luigi Pistaferri (2020)
We provide a systematic analysis of the properties of individual returns to wealth using twelve years of population data from Norway’s administrative tax records. We document a number of novel results. First, individuals earn markedly different average returns on their net worth (a standard deviation of 22.1%) and on its components. Second, heterogeneity in returns does not arise merely from differences in the allocation of wealth between safe and risky assets: returns are heterogeneous even within narrow asset classes. Third, returns are positively correlated with wealth: moving from the 10th to the 90th percentile of the net worth distribution increases the return by 18 percentage points (and 10 percentage points if looking at net-of-tax returns). Fourth, individual wealth returns exhibit substantial persistence over time. We argue that while this persistence partly arises from stable differences in risk exposure and assets scale, it also reflects heterogeneity in sophistication and financial information, as well as entrepreneurial talent. Finally, wealth returns are correlated across generations. We discuss the implications of these findings for several strands of the wealth inequality debate.
Artikkel Andreas Fagereng, Luigi Guiso, Luigi Pistaferri (2018)
Assessing the importance of uninsurable wage risk for individual financial choices faces two challenges. First, the identification of the marginal effect requires a measure of at least one component of risk that cannot be diversified or avoided. Moreover, measures of uninsurable wage risk must vary over time to eliminate unobserved heterogeneity. Secondly, evaluating the economic significance of risk requires knowledge of the size of all the wage risk actually faced. Existing estimates are problematic because measures of wage risk fail to satisfy the “non-avoidability” requirement. This creates a downward bias, which is at the root of the small estimated effect of wage risk on portfolio choices. To tackle this problem we match panel data of workers and firms and use the variability in the profitability of the firm that is passed over to workers to obtain a measure of uninsurable risk. Using this measure to instrument total variability in individual earnings, we find that the marginal effect of uninsurable wage risk is much larger than estimates that ignore endogeneity. We bound the economic impact of risk and find that its overall effect is contained, not because its marginal effect is small but because its size is small. And the size of uninsurable wage risk is small because firms provide substantial wage insurance.
Artikkel Andreas Fagereng, Luigi Guiso, Luigi Pistaferri (2017)
We propose a new approach to identify the strength of the precautionary motive and the extent of self-insurance in response to earnings risk based on Euler equation estimates. To address endogeneity problems, we use Norwegian administrative data and instrument consumption and earnings volatility with the variance of firm-specific shocks. The instrument is valid because firms pass some of their productivity shocks onto wages; moreover, for most workers, firm shocks are hard to avoid. Our estimates suggest a coefficient of relative prudence of 2, in a very plausible range.
Artikkel Andreas Fagereng, Charles Gottlieb, Luigi Guiso (2017)
Using error‐free data on life‐cycle portfolio allocations of a large sample of Norwegian households, we document a double adjustment as households age: a rebalancing of the portfolio composition away from stocks as they approach retirement and stock market exit after retirement. When structurally estimating an extended life‐cycle model, the parameter combination that best fits the data is one with a relatively large risk aversion, a small per‐period participation cost, and a yearly probability of a large stock market loss in line with the frequency of stock market crashes in Norway. This paper reexamines empirically the life‐cycle behavior of investors' portfolios, establishing novel features of the joint profiles of investors' participation in the stock market and the portfolio share invested in stocks. We estimate the parameters of a standard life‐cycle portfolio model with uninsurable labor income, extended to incorporate costly participation and a small probability of a stock market crash, and show that it can capture these features.
Artikkel Andreas Fagereng, Elin Halvorsen (2017)
Artikkel Andreas Fagereng, Luigi Guiso, Davide Malacrino, Luigi Pistaferri (2016)
Lacking a long time series on the assets of the very wealthy, Saez and Zucman (2015) use US tax records to obtain estimates of wealth holdings by capitalizing asset income from tax returns. They document marked upward trends in wealth concentration. We use data on tax returns and actual wealth holdings from tax records for the whole Norwegian population to test the robustness of the methodology. We document that measures of wealth based on the capitalization approach can lead to misleading conclusions about the level and the dynamics of wealth inequality if returns are heterogeneous and even moderately correlated with wealth. JEL Classification: D31: Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions
Artikkel Christoph Basten, Andreas Fagereng, Kjetil Elias Telle (2016)
We investigate the development of household labor income, financial wealth, and asset holdings over a 9-year period around job loss, using unique administrative panel data from Norway. Consistent with predictions from theory, the data show additional saving and a shift toward safer assets in the years leading up to unemployment, and depletion of savings after job loss. In the years after job loss, the households' after-tax labor income is reduced by about USD 12,500. Over the same time period, households deplete USD 3,000 of their financial assets, of which one third is accumulated prior to the job loss. This suggests that at least some households can foresee and prepare for the upcoming unemployment, which indicates that private savings can, to some extent, serve as a substitute for publicly provided unemployment insurance.
Artikkel Christoph Basten, Andreas Fagereng, Kjetil Elias Telle (2014)
We identify the causal effect of lump-sum severance payments on non-employment duration in Norway by exploiting a discontinuity in eligibility at age 50. We find that a payment worth 1.2 months’ earnings at the median lowers the fraction re-employed after a year by about eight percentage points. This is what we would expect if liquidity constraints force unemployed workers to accept a job offer earlier than would be optimal. As further support for the liquidity story, we use data on wealth before unemployment to show that the effect of non-employment duration occurs for the non-wealthy only. Keywords: Unemployment, Optimal Unemployment Insurance, Liquidity Constraints, Severance Pay, Regression Discontinuity Design.
Konferanseabstrakt Kjetil Elias Telle, Andreas Fagereng (2014)
Artikkel Pål Boug, Andreas Fagereng (2009)
During the last decades Norwegian exporters have–despite various forms of exchange rate targeting–faced a rather volatile exchange rate which may have influenced their behaviour. Recently, the shift to inflation targeting and a freely floating exchange rate has brought about an even more volatile exchange rate. We examine the causal link between export performance and exchange rate volatility across different monetary policy regimes within the cointegrated Vector Autoregression (VAR) framework using the implied conditional variance from a Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model as a measure of volatility. Although treating the volatility measure as either a stationary or a nonstationary variable in the VAR, we are not able to find any evidence suggesting that export performance has been significantly affected by exchange rate uncertainty. We find, however, that volatility changes proxied by blip dummies related to the monetary policy change from a fixed to a managed floating exchange rate and the Asian financial crises during the 1990s enter significantly in a dynamic model for export growth–in which the level of relative prices and world market demand together with the level of exports constitute a significant cointegration relationship. A forecasting exercise on the dynamic model rejects the hypothesis that increased exchange rate volatility in the wake of inflation targeting in the monetary policy has had a significant impact on export performance.
Kronikk Andreas Fagereng (2016)
Foredrag Gisle James Natvik, Martin Blomhoff Holm, Andreas Fagereng, Magnus Gulbrandsen, Karin Kinnerud, Sigmund Ellingsrud (2024)
Foredrag Andreas Fagereng, Luigi Pistaferri, Luigi Guiso (2023)
Foredrag Luigi Pistaferri, Andreas Fagereng, Luigi Guiso (2023)
Konferanseforedrag Martin B. Holm, Gisle James Natvik, Andreas Fagereng, Benjamin Moll (2023)
Foredrag Andreas Fagereng, Luigi Pistaferri, Luigi Guiso (2023)
Konferanseforedrag Martin B. Holm, Andreas Fagereng, Gisle James Natvik, Emilien Gouin-Bonenfant, Matthieu Gomez, Benjamin Moll (2023)
Foredrag Andreas Fagereng, Luigi Pistaferri, Luigi Guiso (2023)
Foredrag Andreas Fagereng, Luigi Pistaferri, Luigi Guiso (2023)
Foredrag Andreas Fagereng, Luigi Pistaferri, Luigi Guiso (2023)
Foredrag Andreas Fagereng, Luigi Guiso, Luigi Pistaferri (2023)
Foredrag Andreas Fagereng, Luigi Pistaferri, Luigi Guiso (2023)
Konferanseforedrag Martin B. Holm, Gisle James Natvik, Andreas Fagereng, Benjamin Moll, Emilien Gouin-Bonenfant, Matthieu Gomez (2023)
Foredrag Andreas Fagereng, Luigi Pistaferri, Luigi Guiso (2023)
Foredrag Gisle James Natvik, Andreas Fagereng, Martin Blomhoff Holm, Benjamin Moll (2023)
Foredrag Gisle James Natvik, Andreas Fagereng, Martin Blomhoff Holm, Benjamin Moll (2023)
Konferanseforedrag Andreas Fagereng, Matthieu Gomez, Emilien Gouin-Bonenfant, Martin B. Holm, Benjamin Moll, Gisle James Natvik (2022)
Konferanseforedrag Andreas Fagereng, Matthieu Gomez, Emilien Gouin-Bonenfant, Martin B. Holm, Benjamin Moll, Gisle James Natvik (2022)
Konferanseforedrag Andreas Fagereng, Magnus Andreas Haare Gulbrandsen, Martin B. Holm, Gisle James Natvik (2022)
Konferanseforedrag Karl Harmenberg, Magnus Andreas Haare Gulbrandsen, Andreas Fagereng, Gisle James Natvik (2022)
Foredrag Luigi Pistaferri, Andreas Fagereng, Luigi Guiso (2022)
Konferanseforedrag Andreas Fagereng, Matthieu Gomez, Emilien Gouin-Bonenfant, Martin B. Holm, Benjamin Moll, Gisle James Natvik (2022)
Konferanseforedrag Andreas Fagereng, Matthieu Gomez, Emilien Gouin-Bonenfant, Martin B. Holm, Benjamin Moll, Gisle James Natvik (2022)
Foredrag Luigi Guiso, Luigi Pistaferri, Andreas Fagereng (2021)
Foredrag Luigi Pistaferri, Luigi Guiso, Andreas Fagereng (2021)
Foredrag Luigi Pistaferri, Luigi Guiso, Andreas Fagereng (2021)
Artikkel Andreas Fagereng, Martin Blomhoff Holm, Magnus Gulbrandsen, Gisle James Natvik (2021)
Foredrag Gisle James Natvik, Andreas Fagereng, Benjamin Moll, Martin Blomhoff Holm (2021)
Foredrag Gisle James Natvik, Andreas Fagereng, Martin Blomhoff Holm, Benjamin Moll (2020)
Konferanseforedrag Luigi Pistaferri, Andreas Fagereng, Luigi Guiso (2020)
Artikkel Martin Blomhoff Holm, Andreas Fagereng, Luigi Guiso, Luigi Pistaferri (2020)
We exploit a school reform that increased the length of compulsory schooling in Norway in the 1960s to study the causal effect of formal general education on returns on wealth (k-returns). OLS estimates reveal a strong, positive and statistically significant correlation between education and returns on individual net worth. This effect disappears in IV regressions, implying that general education has no causal effect on individual performance in capital markets, whose heterogeneity largely reflects non-acquired ability. On the contrary, we find that education causes higher returns in the labor market (l-returns). We speculate about possible rationales for this important asymmetry.
Rapport Andreas Fagereng, Martin Blomhoff Holm, Benjamin Moll, Gisle James Natvik (2019)
Konferanseforedrag Andreas Fagereng, Martin Blomhoff Holm, Benjamin Moll, Gisle James Natvik (2019)
Konferanseforedrag Andreas Fagereng, Gisle James Natvik, Martin Blomhoff Holm, Benjamin Moll (2019)
Artikkel Andreas Fagereng, Luigi Guiso, Davide Malacrino, Luigi Pistaferri (2019)
We provide a systematic analysis of the properties of individual returns to wealth using twelve years of population data from Norway’s administrative tax records. We document a number of novel results. First, individuals earn markedly different average returns on their net worth (a standard deviation of 8.6%) and on its components. Second, heterogeneity in returns does not arise merely from differences in the allocation of wealth between safe and risky assets: returns are heterogeneous even within narrow asset classes. Third, returns are positively correlated with wealth: moving from the 10th to the 90th percentile of the net worth distribution increases the return by 18 percentage points (and 10 percentage points if looking at net-of-tax returns). Fourth, individual wealth returns exhibit substantial persistence over time. We argue that while this persistence partly arises from stable differences in risk exposure and assets scale, it also reflects heterogeneity in sophistication and financial information, as well as entrepreneurial talent. Finally, wealth returns are correlated across generations. We discuss the implications of these findings for several strands of the wealth inequality debate.
Konferanseforedrag Andreas Fagereng, Gisle James Natvik, Martin Blomhoff Holm, Benjamin Moll (2019)
Foredrag Benjamin Moll, Andreas Fagereng, Martin Blomhoff Holm, Gisle James Natvik (2019)
Konferanseforedrag Marte Rønning, Andreas Fagereng, Magne Mogstad (2019)
Konferanseforedrag Andreas Fagereng, Martin Blomhoff Holm, Benjamin Moll, Gisle James Natvik (2019)
Rapport Andreas Fagereng, Luigi Guiso, Davide Malacrino, Luigi Pistaferri (2018)
We provide a systematic analysis of the properties of individual returns to wealth using twelve years of population data from Norway’s administrative tax records. We document a number of novel results. First, individuals earn markedly different average returns on their net worth (a standard deviation of 8.6%) and on its components. Second, heterogeneity in returns does not arise merely from differences in the allocation of wealth between safe and risky assets: returns are heterogeneous even within narrow asset classes. Third, returns are positively correlated with wealth: moving from the 10th to the 90th percentile of the net worth distribution increases the return by 18 percentage points (and 10 percentage points if looking at net-of-tax returns). Fourth, individual wealth returns exhibit substantial persistence over time. We argue that while this persistence partly arises from stable differences in risk exposure and assets scale, it also reflects heterogeneity in sophistication and financial information, as well as entrepreneurial talent. Finally, wealth returns are correlated across generations. We discuss the implications of these findings for several strands of the wealth inequality debate.
Konferanseforedrag Andreas Fagereng, Martin Blomhoff Holm, Gisle James Natvik (2018)
Konferanseforedrag Gisle James Natvik, Martin Blomhoff Holm, Andreas Fagereng (2017)
Konferanseforedrag Martin Blomhoff Holm, Andreas Fagereng, Gisle James Natvik (2017)
Konferanseforedrag Martin Blomhoff Holm, Andreas Fagereng, Gisle James Natvik (2017)
Konferanseforedrag Martin Blomhoff Holm, Andreas Fagereng, Gisle James Natvik (2017)
Konferanseforedrag Gisle James Natvik, Martin Blomhoff Holm, Andreas Fagereng (2017)
Konferanseforedrag Martin Blomhoff Holm, Gisle James Natvik, Andreas Fagereng (2017)
Konferanseforedrag Martin Blomhoff Holm, Gisle James Natvik, Andreas Fagereng (2016)
Konferanseforedrag Martin Blomhoff Holm, Andreas Fagereng, Gisle James Natvik (2016)
Rapport Andreas Fagereng, Magne Mogstad, Marte Rønning (2015)
Strong intergenerational correlations in wealth have fueled a long-standing debate over why children of wealthy parents tend to be well off themselves. We investigate the role of family background in determining children's wealth accumulation and investor behavior as adults. Our research design allows us to credibly control for genetic differences in abilities and preferences and to identify the effects of exogenous changes in specific dimensions of family background. The analysis is made possible by linking Korean-born children who were adopted at infancy by Norwegian parents to a population panel data set with detailed information on disaggregated wealth portfolios and socioeconomic characteristics. The mechanism by which these Korean-Norwegian adoptees were assigned to adoptive families is known and effectively random. We use the quasi-random assignment to estimate the causal effects from an adoptee being raised in one type of family versus another. Our findings show that family background matters significantly for children's accumulation of wealth and investor behavior as adults, even when removing the genetic connection between children and the parents raising them. In particular, adoptees raised by wealthy parents are more likely to be well off themselves, whereas adoptees' stock market participation and portfolio risk are increasing in the financial risk taking of their adoptive parents. These intergenerational causal links are not driven primarily by inter vivos transfers or bequests. The detailed nature of our data allows us to explore other mechanisms, assess the generalizability of the lessons from adoptees, and compare our findings to results from behavioral genetics decompositions.
| År | Akademisk institusjon | Grad |
|---|---|---|
| 2012 | European University Institute | PhD |
| 2007 | University of Oslo | MSc in Economics |
| År | Arbeidsgiver | Tittel |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 - Present | BI Norwegian Business School | Professor |
| 2019 - 2024 | Statistics Norway | Senior researcher |
| 2019 - 2020 | BI Norwegian Business School | Associate Professor |
| 2018 - 2019 | Statistics Norway | Head of research |
| 2012 - 2019 | Statistics Norway | Visiting Researcher |
| 2014 - 2018 | Norges Bank | Research Associate |
| 2014 - 2018 | Norges Bank | Visiting Researcher |
| 2012 - 2017 | Statistics Norway | Senior researcher |
| 2010 - 2011 | University of California Berkeley | Visiting Researcher |