Institutt for samfunns­økonomi

Publikasjoner

• Aastveit, Knut Are; Bjørnland, Hilde C, Cross, Jamie L. & Olsen, Helene (2026)
  Unveiling inflation: Oil shocks, supply chain pressures, and expectations

  European Economic Review, 181, s. 105192-105192. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105192

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  After decades of low and stable inflation, advanced economies experienced a sharp and persistent surge in inflation following the COVID-19 pandemic. While many studies have examined the sources of this inflation, less attention has been paid to how domestic inflation expectations amplify global shocks. This paper makes a novel contribution by quantifying that amplification mechanism across six advanced, inflation-targeting economies: the United States, Canada, New Zealand, the Euro Area, the United Kingdom, and Norway. Using a structural Bayesian vector autoregression model, we jointly identify global demand and supply shocks, including various oil market shocks and global supply chain disruptions, as well as domestic shocks to inflation and inflation expectations. We show that these global shocks were key drivers of the post-pandemic inflation surge in all countries studied. Importantly, our counterfactual analysis reveals that inflation expectations have significantly amplified the transmission of global shocks, particularly in Canada, New Zealand, and the US. These findings demonstrate that the interaction between global forces and country-specific expectations is central to understanding inflation dynamics, and underscore the importance of managing inflation expectations as a tool to mitigate persistent inflation.

• Straume, Hans-Martin; Anderson, James L., Asche, Frank, Lem, Audun & Oglend, Atle (2026)
  From fjords to factories: The economics of international supply chains and processing of Norwegian Salmon exports

  Aquaculture, 613, s. 743386-743386. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aquaculture.2025.743386

• Sørensen, Rune Jørgen & Geys, Benny (2025)
  The Causal Effect of Affluence on Voter Turnout: New Evidence from Lottery Winnings

  British Journal of Political Science, 55 Doi: https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123424001005 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Affluent citizens commonly record higher election turnout than less affluent citizens. Yet, the causal effect of affluence on voter turnout remains poorly understood. In this article, we rely on Norwegian administrative data to estimate the impact of random, exogenous shocks in (unearned) income on individual-level voter turnout. Exploiting the random timing and size of lottery wins for identification, our main findings suggest that a lottery windfall in the years just before an election boosts individuals’ turnout probability by 1.6 to 1.9 percentage points. Crucially, these point estimates reflect only a small share of turnout differences observed across the income distribution. Hence, our findings strongly suggest that most of the commonly observed positive income-turnout associations do not reflect a causal relationship.

• Stauskas, Ovidijus & Sucarrat, Genaro (2025)
  Testing the zero-process of intraday financial returns for non-stationary periodicity

  Journal of Financial Econometrics, 23(3) , s. 1-27. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1093/jjfinec/nbaf013 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Testing the zero-process of intraday financial returns for non-stationary periodicity

• Galle, Simon (2025)
  De Nobelprijs Economie: afschaffen of opwaarderen?

  [Popular Science Article]. Karakter: Tijdschrift van Wetenschap, 90 Doi: https://www.tijdschriftkarakter.be/de-nobelprijs-economie-afschaffen-of-opwaarderen/

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  De Nobelprijs Economie ligt onder vuur. Critici stellen dat economie geen echte wetenschap is en dat de prijs een misleidende autoriteit verleent aan een discipline die vaak ideologisch gemotiveerd is. Sommigen pleiten zelfs voor afschaffing. Valt de prijs alsnog te rechtvaardigen, en zo ja, hoe?

• Fiva, Jon H. (2025)
  Lovbrudd og politiske karrierer

  [Popular Science Article]. Samfunnsøkonomen, , s. 10-12. - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  De siste årene har norske medier avslørt en rekke skandaler som involverer norske politikere. Sakene omfatter alt fra fusk med masteroppgaver og småtyveri til misbruk av pendlerboliger og omfattende økonomisk bedrageri knyttet til reiserefusjoner. Totalt sett danner dette et inntrykk av at de som styrer Norge er en tvilsom gjeng. Men er norske politikere egentlig verre enn befolkningen de er trukket fra?

• Kinnerud, Karin (2025)
  The effects of monetary policy through housing and mortgage choices on aggregate demand

  Quantitative Economics, 16(2) , s. 659-703. Doi: https://doi.org/10.3982/QE2160

• Knutsen, Magnus Våge (2025)
  Endogenous Prices in Markets with Reputational Concerns

  RAND Journal of Economics, Doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12502

• Bechtold, Florian & Harang, Fabian Andsem (2025)
  Pathwise regularization by noise for semilinear SPDEs driven by a multiplicative cylindrical Brownian motion

  Infinite Dimensional Analysis Quantum Probability and Related Topics, 28(1) Doi: https://doi.org/10.1142/S021902572450019X

• Galaasen, Sigurd; Kostøl, Andreas Ravndal, Monras, Joan & Vogel, Jonathan (2025)
  The Labor Supply Curve is Upward Sloping: The Labor Market Effects of Immigrant-Induced Demand Shocks

  NBER Working Paper Series,

• Maurseth, Per Botolf; Masso, Jaan & Holmen, Rasmus Bøgh (2025)
  FDI and trade for foreign market entry: theory and evidence from Estonia

  Baltic Journal of Economics, 25(1) , s. 39-71. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/1406099X.2025.2463863

• Hjort, Ingrid & Østenstad, Gry (2025)
  Will women save the planet? Correlation, causality, and common causes

  Global Environmental Change, 95 Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103077

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  While evidence suggests a strong positive cross-country correlation between women’s empowerment and progress on environmental and climate issues, the causal mechanisms remain unclear. This article critically examines the assumption that women’s empowerment drives climate action and environmental protection. By exploring possible causal channels and existing empirical evidence, we highlight the need to distinguish causality from correlation in this domain. We call for an exploration into whether advancements in women’s empowerment and environmental issues are determined by shared underlying factors connected to economic, political and institutional aspects. A more nuanced understanding of these complex interrelations is essential for developing effective and evidence-based environmental and gender policies.

• Kostøl, Andreas Ravndal; Monras, Joan, Vogel, Jonathan & Galaasen, Sigurd (2025)
  The Labor Supply Curve is Upward Sloping: The Effects of Immigrant-Induced Demand Shocks | NBER

  [Report Research]. National Bureau of Economic Research

• Gundersen, Thomas Størdal; Quaghebeur, Ewoud & Tretvoll, Håkon (2025)
  Koronapandemien i en makroøkonomisk modell

  Samfunnsøkonomen, 1, s. 37-55. - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  De store variasjonene i viktige økonomiske størrelser under koronapandemien utgjør en utfordring for modeller som tallfestes på historiske tidsserier. I denne artikkelen presenterer vi en pragmatisk løsning på hvordan pandemiperioden kan håndteres i en DSGE-modell for norsk økonomi. Vi introduserer sjokk i den makroøkonomiske modellen NORA som kun får være aktive i pandemiårene. Med denne tilnærmingen kan vi analysere de relative bidragene fra ulike drivere av svingninger i økonomisk aktivitet under pandemien. Vi viser at å ikke ta hensyn til pandemispesifikke sjokk kan lede til en feilvurdering av de økonomiske konsekvensene av innretningen av finanspolitikken. Dette gjør vi ved å se på hvordan en permanent økning i merverdiavgiftssatsen slår ut i økonomisk aktivitet. I en modell uten pandemispesifikke sjokk undervurderes den økonomiske kostnaden med en faktor på fire.

• Kroken, Vibeke; Murdoch, Zuzana & Geys, Benny Frans Amelia (2025)
  Time tactics in public administration: evidence from a survey experiment

  West European Politics, , s. 1-28. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/01402382.2025.2499996

• Hungnes, Håvard; Stambøl, Lasse Sigbjørn & Skretting, Julia Zhulanova (2025)
  Konjunkturtendenser for Møre og Romsdal: Prognoser basert på Konjunkturtendensene fra desember 2024

  [Report Research]. Statistisk sentralbyrå (SSB)

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  Rapporten gir en oversikt over hovedtrekkene i status og kortsiktige perspektiver for norsk økonomi på nasjonalt nivå, og en noe mer detaljert oversikt over status og kortsiktige perspektiver for befolkning, arbeidsmarked og økonomisk utvikling i Møre og Romsdal. Tallmaterialet som er lagt til grunn for de regionale beregningene i rapporten er basert på Statistisk sentralbyrås «Konjunkturtendensene for norsk økonomi», publisert 13. desember 2024 i Økonomiske analyser nr. 4/2024. Foreløpige nasjonalregnskapstall publisert 11. februar 2025 er også beskrevet. De foreløpige nasjonalregnskapstallene er innarbeidet i teksten i hele rapporten. I tillegg er det foretatt regionale virkningsberegninger av de fire scenarioene for USAs tollpolitikk basert på de samme beregningene som ble foretatt for det nasjonale nivået og presentert i Økonomiske analyser nr. 4/2024. I rapporten er Møre og Romsdal definert ut fra de grenser fylket har hatt siden 1. januar 2020. En kort beskrivelse av modellverktøyet som er benyttet på nasjonalt og regionalt nivå er gitt i vedlegg i rapporten. Prosjektet er finansiert av Sparebanken Møre.

• Evensen, Charlotte Bjørnhaug; Foros, Øystein, Haugen, Atle & Kind, Hans Jarle (2025)
  Size-Based Wholesale Price Discrimination With Ex-Ante Investments Into Alternative Sourcing

  The Journal of Industrial Economics, 73(3) , s. 480-497. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/joie.12420

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  If a retailer invests in alternative sourcing for a product otherwise provided by a dominant supplier, it may gain leverage to pressure the supplier into lowering the wholesale price (bargaining effect). The reduced wholesale price, in turn, strengthens the retailer's competitive position, enabling it to capture additional market shares (business-stealing effect). To counter the latter effect, and thus reduce the retailer's incentive to invest in alternative sourcing, the supplier might commit to uniform wholesale pricing. However, we demonstrate that this strategy is unprofitable when retailers are sufficiently differentiated. Instead, if retailers differ in size, supplier profitability is maximized through size-based price discrimination. This might harm consumers. Interestingly, when substitutability is at an intermediate level, supplier and consumer preferences align.

• Boon, Wietse; Holmen, Daniel Førland, Nordbotten, Jan Martin & Vatne, Jon Eivind (2025)
  The Hodge-Laplacian on the Čech-de Rham complex governs coupled problems

  Journal of Mathematical Analysis and Applications, 551(2) Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmaa.2025.129692

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  By endowing the Čech-de Rham complex with a Hilbert space structure, we obtain a Hilbert complex with sufficient properties to allow for well-posed Hodge-Laplace problems. We observe that these Hodge-Laplace equations govern a class of coupled problems arising from physical systems including elastically attached rods, multiple-porosity flow systems and 3D-1D coupled flow models.

• Mysliwski, Mateusz; Rostom, May, Sanches, Fabio Miessi, Junior, Daniel Silva & Srisuma, Sorawoot (2025)
  Identification and estimation of a search model with heterogeneous consumers and firms

  Journal of Econometrics, 249 Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2025.105956

• Grindaker, Morten Haabeth; Kostøl, Andreas Ravndal & Roszbach, Kasper (2025)
  Make it or Break it: Corporate Bankruptcy and Management Careers

  Working Paper, Norges Bank,

• Balke, Kasper Kragh; Karlman, Markus & Kinnerud, Karin (2025)
  Winners and losers from property taxation

  Quantitative Economics, 16(4) , s. 1187-1187. Doi: https://doi.org/10.3982/qe2270

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  This paper considers optimal taxation of housing capital. To this end, we employ a life‐cycle model calibrated to the U.S. economy, where asset holdings and labor productivity vary across households, and tax reforms lead to changes in house and rental prices, interest rates, and wages. We find that the optimal property tax in the long run is considerably higher than today, partly due to the relatively inelastic demand and supply of housing. A higher property tax also reduces house prices and causes a reallocation from housing to business capital, which in turn decreases interest rates and increases wages. These equilibrium effects allow for an improved consumption smoothing over the life cycle. However, most current households would incur substantial welfare losses from an implementation of a higher property tax, since house prices fall, and a majority own their home. Hence, when accounting for transitional dynamics, it is not clear that a higher property tax is feasible or preferred.

• Mysliwski, Mateusz; Sanches, Fabio Miessi, Junior, Daniel Silva & Srisuma, Sorawoot (2025)
  The Welfare Effects of Supply and Demand Frictions in a Dynamic Pricing Game

  Economic Journal, , s. 1-32. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueaf008

• Brekke, Kurt Richard; Dalen, Dag Morten & Straume, Odd Rune (2025)
  Competition matters: uniform vs. indication-based pricing of pharmaceuticals

  [Report Research]. Institutt for samfunnsøkonomi

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  Pharmaceutical expenditures are rising rapidly, driven in part by the innovation of highly effective but very expensive drug therapies that treat multiple diseases. While these drugs offer substantial health benefits, payers face a critical trade-off between cost containment and access to new medicines. A key policy question is whether producers should be restricted to uniform pricing or allowed to use indication-based pricing, where prices vary across patient groups. We analyse how this choice affects drug producers' incentives to invest in new indications, their pricing strategies, and the resulting surplus for health plans. In a monopoly setting, indication-based pricing yields higher profits and thus strengthens incentives to invest in new indications, while the payer prefers uniform pricing unless the fixed investment costs cannot be recouped. The novelty of our study lies in showing that monopoly-based insights may not hold under competition. Specifically, we identify a softening-of-competition effect, where a uniform pricing restriction serves as a credible commitment to raise prices in the competitive market. In this case, the health plan generally favours indication-based pricing to reduce costs. However, an exception arises, where both parties prefer uniform pricing, if the uniform price generates significant health gains through demand expansion in the original monopoly market. Our findings suggest that neither pricing scheme is universally optimal, underscoring the need for case-by-case assessments across drug classes.

• Diehl, Joscha; Ebrahimi-Fard, Kurusch, Harang, Fabian Andsem & Tindel, Samy (2025)
  On the Signature of an Image

  Stochastic Processes and their Applications, 187 Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.spa.2025.104661 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Over the past decade, the importance of the 1D signature which can be seen as a functional defined over a path, has been pivotal in both path-wise stochastic calculus and the analysis of time series data. By considering an image as a two-parameter function that takes values in a -dimensional space, we introduce an extension of the path signature to images. We address numerous challenges associated with this extension and demonstrate that the 2D signature satisfies a version of Chen’s relation in addition to a shuffle-type product. Furthermore, we show that specific variations of the 2D signature can be recursively defined, thereby satisfying an integral-type equation. We analyze the properties of the proposed signature, such as continuity, invariance to stretching, translation and rotation of the underlying image. Additionally, we establish that the proposed 2D signature over an image satisfies a universal approximation property.

• Broer, Tobias; Druedahl, Jeppe, Harmenberg, Karl & Öberg, Erik (2025)
  The Unemployment-Risk Channel in Business-Cycle Fluctuations

  International Economic Review, , s. 1-34. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12773 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  The unemployment-risk channel (URC) amplifies an initial contraction through a reduction in consumption demand by workers who fear unemployment. Crucial for this are the dynamics of job separations and firm hiring. In US data, the job-finding rate responds slower to identified macroeconomic shocks than the separation rate, but accounts for a similar share of the unemployment response. We calibrate a tractable heterogeneous-agent new-Keynesian model with endogenous separations and sluggish vacancy creation to match these facts. The share of output fluctuations due to the URC is twice as large as in a standard model with exogenous separations and free entry.

• Brekke, Kurt Richard; Dalen, Dag Morten & Straume, Odd Rune (2025)
  Taking the competitor’s pill: When combination therapies enter pharmaceutical markets

  Journal of Health Economics, 101 Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2025.102976

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  We study the competitive effects of combination therapies in pharmaceutical markets, which crucially hinge on the additional therapeutic value of combinatory use of drugs and the therapeutic substitutability with the most relevant monotherapy. If the therapeutic value is sufficiently large, the introduction of combination therapies leads to higher prices and, somewhat paradoxically, may reduce the health plan’s surplus, defined as total health benefits net of drug expenditures. If the firms are allowed to coordinate their price setting, this will lead to higher prices under uniform pricing but lower prices under indication-based pricing. Allowing for the latter type of pricing scheme might increase allocational efficiency, but only at the expense of higher drug expenditures.

• Fagereng, Andreas; Gomez, Matthieu, Gouin-Bonenfant, Emilien, Holm, Martin Blomhoff, Moll, Benjamin & Natvik, Gisle James (2025)
  Asset-Price Redistribution

  Journal of Political Economy, 6(133) , s. 1-47. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1086/736769 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Asset valuations across many asset classes have increased substantially over the last several decades. While these rising valuations had important effects on the distribution of wealth, little is known regarding their redistributive effects in terms of welfare. To make progress on this question, we develop a sufficient statistic for the money-metric welfare gain of deviations in asset valuations. This welfare gain depends on the present value of an individual’s net asset sales rather than asset holdings: higher asset valuations benefit prospective sellers and harm prospective buyers. We estimate this quantity using panel microdata covering the universe of financial transactions in Norway from 1994 to 2019. We further demonstrate how to adapt our baseline statistic to account for important considerations, such as incomplete markets and collateral constraints. We find that the rise in asset valuations had large redistributive effects: it redistributed from the young to the old and from the poor to the wealthy.

• Fiva, Jon Hernes; Nedregård, Oda & Øien, Henning (2025)
  The Norwegian Parliamentary Debates Dataset

  [Professional Article]. Scientific Data, 12 Doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-024-04142-x - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Recent advancements in computing power and machine learning techniques have facilitated the digitization of new corpora, as well as new methods for studying high-dimensional data. This has enabled empirical investigations of fundamental questions in the social sciences that were previously restricted by technical limitations or data availability. In this note, we introduce a new dataset covering debates in the Norwegian Parliament in the 1945-2024 period. This dataset, which covers close to one million speeches, includes information about speeches (full text, date of speech, and chamber), speakers’ status (parliamentary president, member of parliament, deputy member of parliament, or cabinet minister), as well as speaker background characteristics (party affiliation, committee membership, district affiliation, rank on electoral lists, gender, and birth year). This dataset will enable extensive research into political representation in a party-centered electoral framework. More broadly, this dataset serves as a vital resource for interdisciplinary research, enabling studies on the evolution of language, rhetoric, and the broader socio-economic factors influencing legislative behavior.

• Bangum, Christine T.; Geys, Benny Frans Amelia & Sørensen, Rune Jørgen (2025)
  Pro-social preferences and the paradox of voting

  Journal of Public Economics, 250, s. 105479-105479. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105479

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  Why do people vote in large elections? Theoretical arguments to resolve this paradox of voting often emphasize individuals’ pro-social motivations, which make turnout decisions less sensitive to the pivot probability. Using Norwegian population-wide register data, we test this argument by leveraging population-size shocks from inter-municipal mobility and proxying pro-social motivations via individuals’ charitable donations. We find that increasing electorate size widens the turnout gap between more/less pro-social individuals, and that turnout of pro-social individuals responds less to population-size shocks. Simulated municipality-level pivot probabilities suggest the (expected) probability of influencing election outcomes as a driving force behind these findings.

• Coglianese, John; Olsson, Maria Christina & Patterson, Christina (2025)
  Monetary Policy and the Labor Market: A Quasi-experiment in Sweden

  The American Economic Review, 115(10) , s. 3451-3486. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20231167

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  We analyze a monetary quasi–experiment in Sweden from 2010–2011, when the Riksbank raised the interest rate substantially. We argue that this increase was beyond what labor market conditions warranted, driven instead by new concerns about financial stability. Using a battery of specifications that rule out domestic or international confounders, we show that this monetary tightening led to a substantial economic contraction, raising unemployment by 1–2 percentage points. Using administrative microdata, we find that sectors with nominal wage rigidity drove much of the response and that the monetary contraction was more regressive than the typical business cycle. (JEL E24, E32, E43, E52, E58)

• Nedregård, Oda & Søyland, Martin (2025)
  Legislative Party Groups in the Storting

  Oxford Handbook of Norwegian Politics, , s. 356-374. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780198888581.013.0019

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  Abstract This chapter provides an overview of legislative party groups in the Norwegian parliament and the issue of to what extent parties are characterized by cohesion. By defining cohesion as observable unity of party groups, the chapter starts by discussing which incentives members of parliament (MPs) have to dissent from the party line and when party leaders can be expected to allow such dissent. Further, the chapter outlines the anatomy of parliamentary party groups in the context of the Norwegian electoral system, the formal rules guiding parties in parliament, intra-party rules and structure, and the important role committees play in the Storting (parliament). Then, the chapter reviews, corroborates, and extends the findings of previous research in the Norwegian parliament by analysing cohesion in voting and parliamentary debates. The main conclusion is that party cohesion is high, but also that MP discretion is contingent on the arena in which the MP participates.

• Lee, Adam; Sandberg, Rickard & Sucarrat, Genaro (2025)
  Robust Estimation and Inference for Time‐Varying Unconditional Volatility

  Journal of Time Series Analysis, Doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/jtsa.70034

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  ABSTRACT We derive a general and robust estimator of a large class of parametric specifications of time‐varying unconditional volatility of financial returns, both univariate and multivariate, and establish the Consistency and Asymptotic Normality (CAN) of the estimator. A number of well‐known and widely used parametric specifications, for many of which asymptotic results have not been specifically established, are contained in the class. The estimator is robust in the sense that the exact specification of the conditional volatility dynamics need not be known or estimated, and in the sense that the stochastic component need not be strictly stationary. The latter is especially important in light of recent findings, which document that financial returns are frequently characterised by a non‐stationary zero‐process. Our estimator is also robust to the well‐known “curse of dimensionality” in multivariate models due to its equation‐by‐equation nature. While our estimator does not require the exact specification of the conditional volatility dynamics to be known or estimated, our results imply that the scaled GARCH(1,1) specification is well‐defined under both correct and incorrect specifications. So we provide methods for its estimation in a second step. Also, due to the assumptions we rely upon, our results extend directly to the Multiplicative Error Model (MEM) interpretation of volatility models. This means our results can also be applied to other non‐negative processes like volume, duration, realised volatility, dividends, unemployment, and so on. Three numerical applications illustrate the versatility of our results.

• Knutsen, Magnus Våge (2025)
  Verification and reputational concerns: An experiment

  Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics, 119, s. 102435-102435. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socec.2025.102435

• Stefanski, Radek; Ahlvik, Lassi Mikael, Andersen, Jørgen Juel, Harding, Torfinn & Trew, Alex (2025)
  Extracting Wedges: Misallocation and Taxation in the Oil Industry

  [Report Research]. CESifo network

• Vestad, Ola Lotherington & Grindaker, Morten Haabeth (2025)
  Latente eierinntekter og skatteforpliktelser på unoterte aksjer i perioden 2011–2022

  [Report Research]. Statistisk sentralbyrå (SSB)

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  Formålet med denne rapporten er å beregne den samlede beholdningen av latente eierinntekter og skatteforpliktelser blant personlige eiere av norske aksjeselskaper. Latente eierinntekter er definert som inntekter som kunne ha vært realisert ved salg av selskapene og beregnes med utgangspunkt i verdien av selskapene målt ved utgangen av hvert år. I siste del av rapporten presenteres resultater fra deskriptive analyser som har som formål å belyse betydningen av faktisk betalt skatt og latente skatteforpliktelser for personlige eieres utvandringsbeslutninger.

• Haan, Thomas de & Knutsen, Magnus Våge (2025)
  Product Ratings and Externalities

  Management science, Doi: https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2024.04684

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  In this article, we investigate how information about production externalities, such as ecolabels, can be presented to create market pressure on firms to reduce these externalities. Specifically, we explore whether integrating information on externalities with consumer product ratings into a single combined rating can generate pressure to reduce externalities from all consumers, not just environmentally conscious ones. Theoretically, we demonstrate the existence of an equilibrium where producers invest in both high product quality and low production externalities. We show that under separate ratings, this equilibrium depends on a high proportion of “green” consumers, whereas a combined rating achieves similar results without such a requirement. More broadly, our model suggests that bundling ratings can compel producers to address niche concerns more effectively. We experimentally validate this prediction across two studies, confirming that bundling ratings significantly increases producer investment in additional attributes, such as reducing externalities, while maintaining the rating system’s ability to incentivize high product quality. This paper was accepted by Marie-Claire Villeval, behavioral economics and decision analysis. Funding: This research was financed by BI Norwegian Business School and the University of Bergen. Supplemental Material: The online appendix and data files are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2024.04684 .

• Bacher, Annika (2024)
  The Gender Investment Gap over the Life Cycle

  The Review of financial studies, Doi: https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhae068 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Single women invest less in risky assets than do single men. This paper analyzes the determinants of the “gender investment gap” based on a structural life-cycle framework. The model can rationalize the gender investment gap without gender heterogeneity in preferences. Rather, lower deterministic income and larger household sizes shift the composition of single women toward poorer households that invest less risky (composition effect). Additionally, future outcomes of both variables (which cannot easily be controlled for in regressions) make single women more vulnerable to financial shocks and decrease their optimal equity share even conditional on state variables (policy effect).

• Canova, Fabio (2024)
  FAQ: how do I estimate the output gap?

  Economic Journal, 135(665) , s. 59-80. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueae072

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  I investigate the properties of output gaps in New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models and study the relationship between theory-based quantities and the estimates obtained with standard approaches. Theoretical gaps display low-frequency variations, have similar frequency domain representations as potentials and are generally correlated with them. Potentials have important business cycle variability. Existing statistical approaches fail to recognise these features and generate distorted estimates. Gaps are best estimated with a polynomial filter. Explanations for the outcomes are given. I propose a statistical procedure reducing estimation biases.

• Heggedal, Tom-Reiel & McKay, Thomas (2024)
  Discounting in finite-time bargaining experiments

  Journal of the Economic Science Association (JESA), Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40881-024-00174-6 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  This paper examines the impact of different ways of inducing discounting in alternating-offer bargaining games in the lab. We examine this by following the framework of Ochs and Roth (Am Econ Rev, pp. 355–384, 1989) and test whether the model’s predictions find support in data under three different discounting implementations; the shrinking-pie procedure, the effective-discounting procedure and the bargaining-delay procedure. We find no sensitivity to the number of periods in any of the three procedures. However, we find mixed evidence for the effect of changing the discount factor in the effective-discounting procedure and the shrinking-pie procedure, but the magnitude of effects are small. Furthermore, there was more disagreement in both the effective-discounting and bargaining-delay procedures than in the shrinking-pie procedure.

• Hamang, Jonas Hveding (2024)
  Economic development and known natural resource endowment: Discovery rate differentials of oil

  Journal of Development Economics, 170 Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103290

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  The location of oil reserves plays an essential role in policymakers’ incentives to coordinate supply-side climate policy. In this paper I use data on the location of all historic onshore petroleum discoveries to establish a new stylized fact: Economically developed areas are many times more likely to contain an oil or gas discovery, compared to undeveloped areas. I show that this result is not driven reverse causality or confounding geology. By implication, there exist large additional undiscovered oil and gas deposits in currently undeveloped areas, mainly located outside of Europe and North America. I quantify these deposits to be about 40% of total discovered onshore oil reserves.

• Gaasland, Ivar (2024)
  Er budsjettet rigget for høy produktivitet?

  [Professional Article]. Samfunnsøkonomen, (5) , s. 32-39.

• Geys, Benny & Sørensen, Rune Jørgen (2024)
  Transitory Income Windfalls and Charitable Giving: Evidence from Norwegian Register Data, 1993–2021

  Economic Journal, 135(667) , s. 943-963. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueae100 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  This paper studies the impact of unearned, transitory income shocks on charitable giving using Norwegian administrative data. We exploit the random timing and size of lottery wins and our long time period (1993 2021) to estimate both short- and longer-term impacts. We find no meaningful effect of small windfalls. Yet, windfalls exceeding $10,000 induce a long-lasting increase in the likelihood to donate, the absolute level of donations and the share of annual income donated (conditional on donating). We show that this is consistent with individuals thinking of large transitory income shocks as a long-term addition to their annual income

• Labonne, Paul (2024)
  Asymmetric uncertainty: Nowcasting using skewness in real-time data

  International Journal of Forecasting, 41(1) , s. 1-22. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2024.05.003 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  This paper presents a new way to account for downside and upside risks when producing density nowcasts of GDP growth. The approach relies on modelling location, scale, and shape common factors in real-time macroeconomic data. While movements in the location generate shifts in the central part of the predictive density, the scale controls its dispersion (akin to general uncertainty) and the shape its asymmetry, or skewness (akin to downside and upside risks). The empirical application is centred on US GDP growth, and the real-time data come from FRED-MD. The results show that there is more to real-time data than their levels or means: their dispersion and asymmetry provide valuable information for nowcasting economic activity. Scale and shape common factors (i) yield more reliable measures of uncertainty and (ii) improve precision when macroeconomic uncertainty is at its peak.

• Sørensen, Rune Jørgen (2024)
  Are politicians more generous? Evidence from charitable giving

  Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 227, s. 1-15. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2024.106742 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  This paper analyzes the relationship between charitable giving and political candidacy. It uses individual-level Norwegian register data, which is combined with data on the universe of candidates running for local elections (2003–2021). These data include information on tax-deductible donations to approved organizations. Existing and new evidence suggest these gifts are a valid marker of pro-social preferences, with charitable contributors also displaying a positive correlation with competence. The average politician is more generous than the general population both before, during, and after their election to public office. An event study indicates that while contributions remain predominantly stable; they increase modestly when candidates are standing for election and decrease afterward.

• Bjørnland, Hilde C & Skretting, Julia Zhulanova (2024)
  The shale oil boom and the US economy: Spillovers and time-varying effects

  Journal of applied econometrics, , s. 1-21. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.3059 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  We provide new evidence that the transmission of oil price shocks to the US economy has changed with the shale oil boom. To show this, we develop a time-varying parameter factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) model with a large data environment of state-level, industry, and aggregate US data. The model effectively captures potential spillovers between oil and non-oil industries, as well as variation over time. Specified in this way, we find that investment, income, industrial production, and (non-oil) employment in most oil-producing and some manufacturing-intensive US states increase following an oil-specific shock—effects that were not present before the shale oil boom.

• Ile, Runar (2024)
  Versality for pairs

  Journal of Pure and Applied Algebra, 229(1) Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpaa.2024.107779 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  For a pair (algebra, module) with equidimensional and isolated singularity we establish the existence of a versal henselian deformation. Obstruction theory in terms of an André-Quillen cohomology for pairs is a central ingredient in the Artin theory used. In particular we give a long exact sequence relating the algebra cohomology and the module cohomology with the cohomology of the pair and define a Kodaira-Spencer class for pairs.

• Korotov, Sergey & Vatne, Jon Eivind (2024)
  Conforming simplicial partitions of product-decomposed polytopes

  Applications of Mathematics, 70, s. 1-10. Doi: https://doi.org/10.21136/AM.2024.0163-24

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  We propose some approaches for the generation of conforming simplicial partitions with various regularity properties for polytopic domains that are products or a union of products, thus generalizing our earlier results. The techniques presented can be used for finite element simulations of higher-dimensional problems.

• Cox, Gary W.; Fiva, Jon H. & King, Max-Emil Mohn (2024)
  Bound by Borders: Voter Mobilization Through Social Networks

  British Journal of Political Science, 54(4) , s. 1198-1216. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123424000164 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  A vast and growing quantitative literature considers how social networks shape political mobilization but the degree to which turnout decisions are strategic remains ambiguous. Unlike previous studies, we establish personal links between voters and candidates and exploit discontinuous incentives to mobilize across district boundaries to estimate causal effects. Considering three types of networks – families, co-workers, and immigrant communities – we show that a group member's candidacy acts as a mobilizational impulse propagating through the group's network. In family networks, some of this impulse is non-strategic, surviving past district boundaries. However, the bulk of family mobilization is bound by the candidate's district boundary, as is the entirety of the mobilizational effects in the other networks.

• Schröder, Maximilian (2024)
  Probabilistic Quantile Factor Analysis

  Journal of business & economic statistics, , s. 1-14. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.2024.2396956 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  This article extends quantile factor analysis to a probabilistic variant that incorporates regularization and computationally efficient variational approximations. We establish through synthetic and real data experiments that the proposed estimator can, in many cases, achieve better accuracy than a recently proposed loss-based estimator. We contribute to the factor analysis literature by extracting new indexes of low, medium, and high economic policy uncertainty, as well as loose, median, and tight financial conditions. We show that the high uncertainty and tight financial conditions indexes have superior predictive ability for various measures of economic activity. In a high-dimensional exercise involving about 1000 daily financial series, we find that quantile factors also provide superior out-of-sample information compared to mean or median factors.

• Canova, Fabio & Pappa, Evi (2024)
  The macroeconomic effects of EU regional structural funds

  Journal of the European Economic Association, Doi: https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvae031

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  This reflective article presents a case study of journalists in the media reporting from the trial against the former president of the International Biathlon Union. The main corruption charges against the former president were concerned with a car made available to him free of charge by a sponsor of biathlon, exclusive hunting trips paid for by a marketing firm, valuable watches given to him by biathlon organizers, and prostitutes offered to him by Russian biathlon officials. In terms of monetary value, the most valuable bribe was the car, and the least valuable bribe was sex work. Yet findings of this case study showed that the sport journalists preferred to write numerous articles about the alleged access to prostitutes. Fifty-nine major news reports reviewed in the presented research form the basis for this conclusion. Potentially long prison sentences, money involved, and famous defendants are some of the characteristics when selecting and reporting from white-collar crime cases. The findings of this case study support this claim

• Straume, Hans-Martin (2024)
  Buyers in Norwegian salmon exports: Structure and trade margins

  Aquaculture Economics & Management, 28(3) , s. 376-395. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/13657305.2023.2300484

• Gola, Pawel (2024)
  On the Importance of Social Status for Occupational Sorting

  Economic Journal, 134(661) , s. 2009-2040. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/uead119 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Models of self-selection predict that occupations with flat wage schedules attract workers of lower average ability. However, in certain prominent occupations such as academia and the civil service, wages are flat yet the average skill level is high. In this paper, I examine whether social status concerns can explain this puzzle. I find that within-occupation status allows flat wage occupations to attract predominantly high-skilled workers, but only at the cost of attracting few workers overall. If, however, workers care about both within- and between-occupation status then occupations paying flat wages can be arbitrarily large and attract workers of high average skill. I conclude that within- and between-occupation status concerns act as complements.

• Grindaker, Morten Haabeth; Merkle, Matthew & Kostøl, Andreas Ravndal (2024)
  Corporate Bankruptcy and Labor Market Insuranc

  IZA Discussion Papers,

• Korotov, Sergey & Vatne, Jon Eivind (2024)
  On dihedral angle sums and number of facets for product polytopes

  Journal of Geometry, 115(34) , s. 1-13. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00022-024-00732-7 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  In this paper we present a method for computing the dihedral angle sums (and their two-sided estimates) of cartesian and skew product polytopes provided the sums of dihedral angles (or their estimates) are known for the factors. In addition, a formula for computing the number of facets of such product polytopes is derived. The method proposed is very universal and illustrated by several examples. The estimates

• Vos, Ignace De & Stauskas, Ovidijus (2024)
  Cross-section Bootstrap for CCE regressions

  Journal of Econometrics, 240(1) , s. 1-20. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2023.105648 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  The Common Correlated Effects (CCE) methodology is now well established for the analysis of factor-augmented panel data models. Yet, it is often neglected that the pooled variant is biased unless the cross-section dimension ( ) of the dataset dominates the time series length ( ). This is problematic for inference with typical macroeconomic datasets, where is often equal or larger than . In response, we establish in this paper the theoretical foundation of the cross-section (CS) bootstrap for inference with CCE estimators in large and panels with . This resampling scheme is often used to estimate standard errors, yet without theoretical justification, and with unused potential, as we show it also provides a solution to the bias problem. We derive conditions under which the scheme replicates the distribution of the CCE estimators, such that bias can be eliminated and asymptotically valid inference can ensue. In so doing, we also spend attention to the case where factors need not be common across the dependent and explanatory variables, or when slopes are heterogeneous. Since we find that the CS-bootstrap applies in each case, researchers can stay agnostic on these issues. Simulation experiments show that the asymptotic properties also translate well to finite samples.

• Stauskas, Ovidijus & Vos, Ignace De (2024)
  Handling Distinct Correlated Effects with CCE

  Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, , s. 1-28. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12650

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  The common correlated effects (CCE) approach by Pesaran is a popular method for estimating panel data models with interactive effects. Due to its simplicity, i.e., unobserved common factors are approximated with cross-section averages of the observables, the estimator is highly flexible and lends itself to a wide range of applications. Despite such flexibility, however, the properties of CCE estimators are typically only examined under the restrictive assumption that all the observed variables load on the same set of factors, which ensures joint identification of the factor space. In this article, we take a different perspective, and explore the empirically relevant case where the dependent and explanatory variables are driven by distinct but correlated factors. Hence, we consider the case of Distinct Correlated Effects. Such settings can be argued to be relevant for practice, for instance in studies linking economic growth to climatic variables. In so doing, we consider panel dimensions such that as , which is known to induce an asymptotic bias for the pooled CCE estimator even under the usual common factor assumption. We subsequently develop a robust bootstrap-based toolbox that enables asymptotically valid inference in both homogeneous and heterogeneous panels, without requiring knowledge about whether factors are distinct or common.

• Campos-Martins, Susana & Sucarrat, Genaro (2024)
  Modeling Nonstationary Financial Volatility with the R Package tvgarch

  Journal of Statistical Software, 108(9) , s. 1-38. Doi: https://doi.org/10.18637/jss.v108.i09 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Certain events can make the structure of volatility of financial returns to change, making it nonstationary. Models of time-varying conditional variance such as generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models usually assume stationarity. However, this assumption can be inappropriate and volatility predictions can fail in the presence of structural changes in the unconditional variance. To overcome this problem, in the time-varying (TV-)GARCH model, the GARCH parameters are allowed to vary smoothly over time by assuming not only the conditional but also the unconditional variance to be time-varying. In this paper, we show how useful the R package tvgarch (Campos-Martins and Sucarrat 2023) can be for modeling nonstationary volatility in financial empirical applications. The functions for simulating, testing and estimating TV-GARCH-X models, where additional covariates can be included, are implemented in both univariate and multivariate settings.

• Schröder, Maximilian (2024)
  Monitoring multi-country macroeconomic risk: A quantile factor-augmented vector autoregressive (QFAVAR) approach

  Journal of Econometrics, 249, s. 1-20. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2024.105730 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  A multi-country quantile factor-augmented vector autoregression is proposed to model heterogeneities both across countries and across characteristics of the distributions of macroeconomic time series. The presence of quantile factors enables a parsimonious summary of these two heterogeneities by accounting for dependencies in the cross-sectional dimension as well as across different quantiles of macroeconomic data. Using monthly euro area data, the strong empirical performance of the new model in gauging the impact of global shocks on country-level macroeconomic risks is demonstrated. The short-term tail forecasts of QFAVAR outperform those of FAVARs with symmetric Gaussian errors as well as univariate and multivariate specifications featuring stochastic volatility. Modeling individual quantiles enables scenario analysis of macroeconomic risks, a unique feature absent in FAVARs with stochastic volatility or flexible error distributions.

• Ɖorđević, Jasmina & Dahl, Kristina Rognlien (2024)
  Stochastic optimal control of pre-exposure prophylaxis for HIV infection for a jump model

  Journal of Mathematical Biology, 89(5) , s. 1-43. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00285-024-02151-3

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  We analyze a stochastic optimal control problem for the PReP vaccine in a model for the spread of HIV. To do so, we use a stochastic model for HIV/AIDS with PReP, where we include jumps in the model. This generalizes previous works in the field. First, we prove that there exists a positive, unique, global solution to the system of stochastic differential equations which makes up the model. Further, we introduce a stochastic control problem for dynamically choosing an optimal percentage of the population to receive PReP. By using the stochastic maximum principle, we derive an explicit expression for the stochastic optimal control. Furthermore, via a generalized Lagrange multiplier method in combination with the stochastic maximum principle, we study two types of budget constraints. We illustrate the results by numerical examples, both in the fixed control case and in the stochastic control case.

• Grønneberg, Steffen & Irmer, Julien (2024)
  Non-parametric Regression Among Factor Scores: Motivation and Diagnostics for Nonlinear Structural Equation Models

  Psychometrika, , s. 1-29. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11336-024-09959-4 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  We provide a framework for motivating and diagnosing the functional form in the structural part of nonlinear or linear structural equation models when the measurement model is a correctly specified linear confirmatory factor model. A mathematical population-based analysis provides asymptotic identification results for conditional expectations of a coordinate of an endogenous latent variable given exogenous and possibly other endogenous latent variables, and theoretically well-founded estimates of this conditional expectation are suggested. Simulation studies show that these estimators behave well compared to presently available alternatives. Practically, we recommend the estimator using Bartlett factor scores as input to classical non-parametric regression methods.

• Arnulf, Jan Ketil; Olsson, Ulf Henning & Nimon, Kim (2024)
  Measuring the menu, not the food: “psychometric” data may instead measure “lingometrics” (and miss its greatest potential)

  Frontiers in Psychology, 15, s. 1-14. Doi: https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2024.1308098 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  This is a review of a range of empirical studies that use digital text algorithms to predict and model response patterns from humans to Likert-scale items, using texts only as inputs. The studies show that statistics used in construct validation is predictable on sample and individual levels, that this happens across languages and cultures, and that the relationship between variables are often semantic instead of empirical. That is, the relationships among variables are given a priori and evidently computable as such. We explain this by replacing the idea of “nomological networks” with “semantic networks” to designate computable relationships between abstract concepts. Understanding constructs as nodes in semantic networks makes it clear why psychological research has produced constant average explained variance at 42% since 1956. Together, these findings shed new light on the formidable capability of human minds to operate with fast and intersubjectively similar semantic processing. Our review identifies a categorical error present in much psychological research, measuring representations instead of the purportedly represented. We discuss how this has grave consequences for the empirical truth in research using traditional psychometric methods.

• Bacher, Annika; Grübener, Philipp & Nord, Lukas (2024)
  Joint search over the life cycle

  Journal of Monetary Economics, 150, s. 1-24. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103696 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  This paper provides evidence that the added worker effect – labor force entry upon spousal job loss – is stronger for young than old households. Using a life cycle model of two-member households in a frictional labor market, we study whether this age-dependency is driven by heterogeneous needs for or availability of spousal insurance. Our framework endogenizes asset and human capital accumulation, as well as arrival rates of job offers, and is disciplined against U.S. micro data. Counterfactuals show a strong complementarity across both margins: A large added worker effect requires both high spousal earnings potential relative to the primary earner and limited access to other means of self-insurance. Together, both margins account for the observed age differential in the added worker effect. The model predicts substantial crowding out of spousal labor supply responses by unemployment benefit extensions among young households, in line with their stronger insurance motive.

• Bruno, Lars Christian & Grytten, Ola Honningdal (2024)
  Convergence between the Baltic and the Nordic economies: Some reflections based on new data for the Baltic countries

  [Report Research]. Institutt for samfunnsøkonomi

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  This short paper uses recent estimates of GDP per capita for the Baltic countries for the 1919-2020(22) period to test for convergence between the Baltic and the Nordic economies. Drawing from the methodology used in Bernard and Durlauf (1996) and Greasley and Oxley (1997), we utilise a time-series approach to test for bivariate convergence between the various Baltic and Nordic economies. We find some evidence of conditional convergence and catching up for the interwar period, 1919-1939 and the post-Soviet era 1993-2022, when for the communist growth period until 1988 we find no trace of convergence, when thereafter during the last years of communism, the Baltic economies went into a severe and devastating recession.

• Aastveit, Knut Are; Fastbø, Tuva Marie, Granziera, Eleonora, Paulsen, Kenneth Sæterhagen & Torstensen, Kjersti Næss (2024)
  Nowcasting Norwegian household consumption with debit card transaction data

  Journal of applied econometrics, , s. 1-25. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.3076 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  We use a novel data set covering all domestic debit card transactions in physical terminals by Norwegian households, to nowcast quarterly Norwegian household consumption. These card payments data are not subject to revisions and are available weekly without delays, providing a valuable early indicator of household spending. To account for mixed-frequency data, we estimate various quantile mixed-data sampling (QMIDAS) regressions using predictors sampled at monthly and weekly frequency. We evaluate both point and density forecasting performance over the sample 2011Q4–2019Q4. Our results show that MIDAS regressions with debit card transactions data improve both point and density forecast accuracy over competitive standard benchmark models that use alternative high-frequency predictors. Finally, we illustrate the benefits of using the card payments data by obtaining a timely and relatively accurate nowcast of 2020Q1, a quarter characterized by heightened uncertainty due to the COVID-19 pandemic. We further show how debit card data have been useful in nowcasting consumption during the four subsequent quarters.

• Cappelen, Ådne; Hungnes, Håvard, Jasinski, Marek & Skretting, Julia Zhulanova (2024)
  The Macroeconomic Effects of Supply-Side Climate Policy/Dutch disease in reverse?

  [Professional Article]. SSB - Discussion papers, (1014)

• Bhuller, Manudeep & Sigstad, Henrik (2024)
  Feedback and Learning: The Causal Effects of Reversals on Judicial Decision-Making

  Review of Economic Studies, , s. 1-39. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdae073 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Do judges respond to reversals of their decisions? Using random assignment of cases across two stages of the criminal justice system in Norway and a novel dataset linking trial court decisions to reversals in appeals courts, we provide causal evidence on feedback effects in judicial decision-making. By exploiting differences in the tendencies of randomly assigned appeal panels to reverse trial court decisions, we show that trial court judges who receive a reversal of a sentence respond by updating the likelihood of imposing a prison sentence in the direction of the reversal in future cases. Consistent with a Bayesian learning model, we find that the responses are stronger for judges with weaker priors and for reversals corresponding to stronger signals. Our estimates, however, also indicate that judges overreact to reversals compared to Bayes’ rule.

• Fiva, Jon H.; Izzo, Federica & Tukiainen, Janne (2024)
  The gatekeeper's dilemma: Political selection or team effort

  Journal of Public Economics, 234, s. 1-13. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105133 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Political parties play a crucial gatekeeping role in elections, including controlling electoral resources, candidate recruitment, and electoral list compositions. In making these strategic choices, parties aim to encourage candidates to invest in the campaign, while also trying to secure advantages for their preferred candidates. We study how parties navigate this trade-off using a specific feature of the Norwegian local electoral system in which parties can give advantaged positions to some candidates in an otherwise open list. Our theory reveals that parties’ ex-ante electoral strength impacts their strategic decisions. Notably, the trade-off is weaker for more popular parties, allowing them to facilitate the election of their preferred candidates without compromising the party’s overall performance. We show empirically that the moral hazard concern is real, and that larger parties are indeed more likely to use their power to make some candidates safe. The advantage of large parties extends further: safeguarding specific candidates enables parties to achieve disproportionately favorable outcomes in post-electoral bargaining. These findings reveal new insights for political representations, policy outcomes, and intra-party dynamics more broadly.

• Fagereng, Andreas; Onshuus, Helene & Torstensen, Kjersti Næss (2024)
  The consumption expenditure response to unemployment: Evidence from Norwegian households

  Journal of Monetary Economics, 146(103578) , s. 1-20. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103578 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  This paper examines heterogeneity in household income and consumption responses to unemployment, using granular administrative tax data from Norway. On average, unemployment results in a significant, lasting income reduction, accompanied by a decrease in consumption expenditures of between one-third to one-half of the income loss. We find that households with greater liquid assets at the outset experience less of a decline in consumption, whereas those with higher levels of debt encounter a more substantial decrease. Notably, also the interaction of liquid assets and debt holdings matters for the consumption response. While households with larger initial liquid asset holdings on average respond less, the analyses show that this is not the case among households that simultaneously hold substantial amounts of debt, thus adding to a more nuanced view of the importance of household heterogeneity for economic outcomes. Furthermore, our investigation into heterogeneity across family composition and child age uncovers distinct patterns in consumption responses, highlighting the varied impacts of unemployment. Lastly, we find that spending patterns, as indicated by the marginal propensity to consume (MPC), become more pronounced during recessions.

• Galle, Simon & Lorentzen, Linnea (2024)
  The unequal effects of trade and automation across local labor markets

  Journal of International Economics, 150, s. 1-26. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103912 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  We quantify the joint impact of the China shock and automation of labor, across US commuting zones (CZs) in the period 2000–2007. To this end, we employ a multi-sector gravity model of trade with Roy-Fréchet worker heterogeneity across sectors, where labor input can be automated. Automation and increased import competition from China are both sector-specific; they lead to contractions in a sector’s labor demand and a decline in relative income for CZs more specialized in that sector, amplified by a voluntary reduction in hours worked and an increase in frictional unemployment. The estimated model fits well with the aggregate performance of manufacturing subsectors and with the variation across CZs in changes in average income, the hourly wage, hours worked, the employment rate and employment in manufacturing. By itself, the China shock has stronger distributional effects than automation, but its impact on aggregate gains is less than a third of automation’s impact.

• Berger, David; Herkenhoff, Kyle, Kostøl, Andreas Ravndal & Mongey, Simon (2024)
  An Anatomy of Monopsony: Search Frictions, Amenities, and Bargaining in Concentrated Markets

  NBER macroeconomics annual, 38 Doi: https://doi.org/10.1086/729194

• Oglend, Atle; Asche, Frank & Straume, Hans-Martin (2024)
  Crisis averted: Cross-market reallocation during the great trade collapse

  The World Economy, 47(7) , s. 2855-2870. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13565 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  This article investigates cross-market reallocation of trade to mitigate negative effects of large economic shocks. We propose a simple measure of trade reallocation and apply it to Norwegian exports during the great trade collapse following the financial crisis in 2008–2009. The results indicate statistically significant cross-market reallocation of trade away from markets hit hard by the crisis as measured by GDP/growth. Norwegian exports declined by 16.9% from 2008 and 2009. Without reallocation, the decline would have been between 1.6 and 3.8 percentage points greater. Successful reallocation at the firm level is done primarily along the intensive margin, by shifting physical products towards less affected markets within their pre-crisis trade networks.

• Schönhage, Nanna Lauritz & Geys, Benny (2024)
  Partisanship, blame avoidance behaviours and voter reactions to allegations of political misconduct

  Electoral Studies: an international journal on voting and electoral systems and strategy, 87, s. 1-20. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2023.102742 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Politicians often engage in blame avoidance behaviours in order to evade electoral punishment following allegations of misconduct. A key question concerns the (in)effectiveness of such behaviours in mitigating voter opinions about the alleged misconduct and the appropriate punishment. In this article, we examine how this (in)effectiveness may be shaped by: (1) the characteristics of blame avoidance behaviours, and (2) voters' partisan (mis)alignment with the alleged offender. We address this question using a between-subject survey experiment among a sample of Norwegian citizens (N = 1996). Our main findings suggest that blame avoidance behaviours can be effective in mitigating voters' assessment of the alleged misconduct and of the punishment the politician should face. This is particularly true when it concerns politicians from respondents' most-preferred party, and among left-wing voters. These findings help explain when and why scandals may (fail to) affect politicians’ electoral fortunes.

• Borge, Lars-Erik; Asphjell, Magne Krogstad, Lyshol, Arne, Nyhus, Ole Henning, Vamsæther, Kristen & Wold, Mads Fjeld (2024)
  Måling av effektivitet i kommunale tjenester

  [Report Research]. Norges teknisk-naturvitenskapelige universitet

  Vis sammendrag

  Bakgrunnen for denne rapporten er at SØF siden 2011 har skrevet årlige rapporter om effektivitet og effektivitetsutvikling i kommunale tjenester. Et sammendrag av rapportene er publisert i TBUs høstrapporter. Transportøkonomisk institutt (TØI), i samarbeid med Frischsenteret, ble i 2021 engasjert til å evaluere SØFs analyser og foreslå forbedringer i analyseopplegget. Sluttrapporten er dokumentert i Rødseth mfl. (2022). Denne rapporten er i hovedsak en videreføring av de tidligere effektivitetsanalysene og en oppfølging av anbefalinger i Rødseth mfl. (2022).

• Foldnes, Njål; Moss, Jonas & Grønneberg, Steffen (2024)
  Improved Goodness of Fit Procedures for Structural Equation Models

  Structural Equation Modeling, , s. 1-13. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/10705511.2024.2372028 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  We propose new ways of robustifying goodness-of-fit tests for structural equation modeling under non-normality. These test statistics have limit distributions characterized by eigenvalues whose estimates are highly unstable and biased in known directions. To take this into account, we design model-based trend predictions to approximate the population eigenvalues. We evaluate the new procedures in a large-scale simulation study with three confirmatory factor models of varying size (10, 20, or 40 manifest variables) and six non-normal data conditions. The eigenvalues in each simulated dataset are available in a database. Some of the new procedures markedly outperform presently available methods. We demonstrate how the new tests are calculated with a new R package and provide practical recommendations.

• Geys, Benny; Lægreid, Per, Murdoch, Zuzana & Yackee, Susan Webb (2024)
  I’m a Survivor: Political Dynamics in Bureaucratic Elites’ Partisan Identification

  American Political Science Review, 119(3) , s. 1115-1129. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055424000844

  Vis sammendrag

  This article challenges the common assumption that the partisan identification of bureaucratic elites is fixed over time. Building on principal-agent and organization theory, we hypothesize that bureaucratic elites may respond to political turnover by adjusting their partisan identification toward that of their (new) elected principals. We test this prediction using data from the American State Administrators Project (ASAP) over the 1964–2008 period, which allows us to study the same US agency leaders (N=951 individuals) before and after partisan shifts in their agency’s elected principals. We find significant evidence that agency leaders remaining in office following a shift in the party in power on average reorient their partisan identity in response to such turnover events. These adjustments are stronger for agency leaders directly appointed by, or in more frequent contact with, their elected principals. Our results suggest a malleability of partisanship seldom attributed to bureaucratic elites in public and academic discourse.

• Oglend, Atle; Asche, Frank & Straume, Hans-Martin (2024)
  Rent formation and distortions due to quotas in biological production processes

  Resource and Energy Economics, 77, s. 1-14. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2024.101438 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Production licenses with use restrictions that limit output are commonly used to regulate biological production processes. Such regulations are vulnerable to rent formation and production distortions that can end up subsidizing harmful environmental behavior. This paper develops a partial equilibrium model for a biological production process and use the model to study the impact of production quotas in Norwegian salmon aquaculture. Results suggest substantial regulatory rents capitalized in license values. Production has intensified leading to excessive stocking of fish per license, a shorting of the production period, and smaller produced fish. Our findings provide important insights for quota policies in food production, especially for cases where quotas are motivated by harmful environmental effects.

• Cross, Jamie; Hoogerheide, Lennart, Labonne, Paul & Dijk, Herman K. van (2024)
  Bayesian mode inference for discrete distributions in economics and finance

  Economics Letters, 235, s. 1-4. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111579 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  We propose a straightforward technique for mode inference in discrete data distributions which involves fitting a mixture of novel shifted-Poisson distributions. The credibility and utility of our approach is demonstrated through applications pertaining to loan default risk and inflation expectations.

• Santika, Nita; Oglend, Atle, Straume, Hans-Martin & Asche, Frank (2024)
  Brexsea Trade and Uncertainty: Impact of Brexit on Seafood Exports

  The World Economy, Doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13661 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  This paper investigates the effect of the Brexit referendum on Norwegian firms' exports of fresh seafood to the United Kingdom. We exploit the referendum as a quasi-natural experiment to investigate the effect of an uncertainty shock in trade on export values, volumes, and prices, as well as market entry and exit. First, we find that Norwegian firms experienced an average 2% decrease in total export value resulting from the referendum, suggesting a limited aggregate effect. Second, we examine the role of duration in firm-to-firm relationships in response to the shock, finding that more established relationships responded relatively more along the intensive margin to the shock. Third, the market dynamic post-referendum reveals a nuanced impact; while new market entries were limited, a slight increase in exit probabilities was observed. This reflects a strategic response by Norwegian exporters to the shock, particularly amongst firms with an established export history, indicating a reassessment of market presence. Overall, Norwegian exporters have demonstrated resilience and adaptability, effectively adjusting to the challenges of the Brexit referendum with minimal disruptions while maintaining their international trade relations amidst short-term uncertainties.

• Foldnes, Njål; Uppstad, Per Henning, Grønneberg, Steffen & Thomson, Jenny (2024)
  School entry detection of struggling readers using gameplay data and machine learning

  Frontiers in Education, 9 Doi: https://doi.org/10.3389/feduc.2024.1487694 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Current methods for reading difficulty risk detection at school entry remain error-prone. We present a novel approach utilizing machine learning analysis of data from GraphoGame, a fun and pedagogical literacy app. The app was played in class daily for ten minutes by 1676 Norwegian first graders, over a five-week period during the first months of schooling, generating rich process data. Models were trained on the process data combined with results from the endof-year national screening test. The best machine learning models correctly identified 75% of the students at risk for developing reading difficulties. The present study is among the first to investigate the potential of predicting emerging learning difficulties using machine learning on game process data.

• Asche, Frank; Concha, Ursula Alejandra Landazuri, Øglend, Atle, Santika, Nita & Straume, Hans-Martin (2024)
  Spillover effects from agglomeration in seafood exports

  European Review of Agricultural Economics, Doi: https://doi.org/10.1093/erae/jbae028 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Agglomeration externality is a feature that has received limited attention in food production supply chains. Using highly disaggregated trade data, this paper investigates the presence of regional agglomeration effects in Norwegian seafood exports. Results indicate strong agglomeration effects in the exports of both farmed and harvested seafood at the region–product–destination level. Regional agglomeration of exporters affects the firms through different margins. In both industries, increased agglomeration results in larger volumes, while aquaculture exporters experience a small, negative, price effect. The largest firms, both in the number of employees and size of product portfolio, export most. We also document that agglomeration is important in explaining the creation of new regional product-destination-specific trade relationships, indicating the presence of regional spillover effects.

• Vantaggiato, Francesca P.; Murdoch, Zuzana, Kassim, Hussein, Geys, Benny & Connolly, Sara Jane (2024)
  Intraorganizational mobility and employees’ work-related contact patterns: evidence from panel data in the European Commission

  Journal of Public Administration Research and Theory (JPART), 34(4) , s. 598-610. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1093/jopart/muae014 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Programs to encourage staff to move within public-sector organizations have become increasingly widespread in recent decades. Yet, although there are some anecdotal accounts, the effects of such intraorganizational mobility remain largely unexplored. Building on insights from organization theory and social psychology, we argue that intraorganizational mobility entails an important trade-off: it undermines movers’ depth of work-related contacts within the (new) department, while it increases the breadth of their work-related contacts outside it. Our empirical analysis evaluates this trade-off using a two-way fixed effects model for a longitudinal dataset of movers (N = 149) and stayers (N = 473) across two survey waves among European Commission officials in 2014 and 2018. Our main findings confirm that intraorganizational mobility is connected in opposing ways to employees’ intra- and extra-departmental work-related contact patterns. In line with theoretical expectations, we find these relationships to be stronger for employees who have previously experienced intraorganizational moves (“repeat-movers”).

• Mehlum, Halvor; Natvik, Gisle James & Torvik, Ragnar (2024)
  The impossible trinity: Competitive markets, free entry, and efficiency

  Journal of Public Economics, 239, s. 1-12. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105240 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  We present a model in which workers make occupational choices and vote over a tax rate which determines the level of government spending. Workers in occupations whose services are in high (low) demand by the government favor high (low) taxes. We show that the socially efficient size of the public sector cannot be supported in a political economic equilibrium. The reason is that equilibrium tax rates always reward excessive entry into the politically most powerful sector, and thus the equilibrium size of government is always either too big or too small. We show that this is an example of a more general political economy result that extends well beyond the baseline model and holds quite generally: the combination of (i) competitive markets and (ii) free entry is inconsistent with (iii) allocative efficiency.

• Bhuller, Manudeep & Sigstad, Henrik (2024)
  2SLS with multiple treatments

  Journal of Econometrics, 242(1) , s. 1-18. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2024.105785 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  We study what two-stage least squares (2SLS) identifies in models with multiple treatments under treatment effect heterogeneity. Two conditions are shown to be necessary and sufficient for the 2SLS to identify positively weighted sums of agent-specific effects of each treatment: average conditional monotonicity and no cross effects. Our identification analysis allows for any number of treatments, any number of continuous or discrete instruments, and the inclusion of covariates. We provide testable implications and present characterizations of choice behavior implied by our identification conditions.

• Foldnes, Njål; Grønneberg, Steffen, Hermansen, Gudmund Horn & Wellen, Einar Christopher (2024)
  Statistikk og dataanalyse

  [Textbook]. Cappelen Damm Akademisk

• Fjære-Lindkjenn, Jeanette; Aastveit, Knut Are, Karlman, Markus Johan, Kinnerud, Karin, Juelsrud, Ragnar Enger & Wold, Ella Getz (2024)
  Hvordan virker utlånsforskriften? En oppsummering av forskningslitteraturen

  Samfunnsøkonomen, 138(2) - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  I denne artikkelen forsøker vi å svare på om utlånsforskriften har virket etter hensikten og hvilke kostnader den påfører husholdningene. Forskningslitteraturen indikerer at boliglånsregulering bidrar til noe lavere gjelds- og boligprisvekst, men at det er mer usikkert om den reduserer husholdningenes sårbarhet for uforutsette hendelser som renteøkninger og arbeidsledighet. Utlånsforskriften påfører samtidig mange husholdninger kostnader ved at den begrenser muligheten for konsumglatting og kan gjøre det vanskeligere for unge å kjøpe sin første bolig. Reguleringen kan også forsterke viktigheten av formuende foreldre for muligheten til boligkjøp. Høy inflasjon og rente kan redusere behovet for forskriften og øke kostnadene.

• Melberg, Hans Olav; Aas, Eline, Hjort, Ingrid, Vorland, lars, Barra, Mathias, Husbyn, Hallstein, Sogstad, Maren Kristine Raknes, Flobak, Åsmund, Bjørnelv, Gudrun Maria Waaler & Hutchinson, Gunn Oddlaug Strand (2024)
  Perspektiv og prioriteringer: Rapport fra ekspertgruppen perspektiv i prioritering nedsatt av Helse- og omsorgdepartementet

  [Report Research]. Helse- og omsorgdepartementet

• Godøy, Anna Aasen; Haaland, Venke Furre, Huitfeldt, Ingrid Marie Schaumburg & Votruba, Mark E (2024)
  Hospital Queues, Patient Health, and Labor Supply

  American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 16(2) , s. 150-181. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1257/POL.20210399 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Long waits for health care raise concerns about the consequences of delayed treatment. We use variation in queue congestion to estimate effects of wait time for orthopedic surgery. We do not find that longer wait times lead to increased health care utilization. However, we do find persistent reductions in labor supply: long waits increase medium to long-term work absences and permanent disability receipt. Effects are driven by individuals who are on sick leave at referral. Our results are consistent with patterns of state dependence, where extended periods of temporary disability while awaiting treatment create persistent barriers to returning to work.

• Canova, Fabio (2024)
  Should we trust cross sectional multiplier estimates?

  Journal of applied econometrics, 39(4) , s. 589-606. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.3041

  Vis sammendrag

  I examine the properties of cross-sectional estimators of multipliers, elasticities, or pass-throughs when a conventional spatial macroeconomic specification generates the data. A number of important biases plague standard estimates; the most relevant one occurs when the units display heterogeneous dynamics. Methods that work well in this situation are suggested. An experimental setting shows the magnitude of the biases cross-sectional estimators display. Average estimates of local fiscal multipliers in the US states are compared and contrasted.

• Fiva, Jon H. & Nedregård, Oda (2024)
  How Does Party Discipline Affect Legislative Behavior? Evidence from Within-Term Variation in Lame-Duck Status

  Quarterly Journal of Political Science, 19(2) , s. 191-216. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1561/100.00022094

  Vis sammendrag

  How important are political parties in motivating and disciplining elected officials? Using a difference-in-differences design, we study how shocks to incumbents’ reelection probabilities affect legislative behavior in a setting where parties fully control candidate selection. We find that within-term variation in lame-duck status has a strong negative effect on legislative effort. There is, however, no clear evidence that lame-duck status affects the extent to which legislators deviate from the party line. Our findings align well with the citizen–candidate framework, where candidates have fixed ideological positions that do not vary based on electoral incentives.

• Geys, Benny (2023)
  Fancy Seeing You Here…Again: Uncovering Individual-Level Panel Data in Repeated Cross-Sectional Surveys

  Public Administration Review, 83(6) , s. 1761-1771. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/puar.13693 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Many theories in Public Administration and Public Management explicitly relate to changes over time in the attitudes, values, perceptions, and/or motivations of public-sector employees. Examining such theories using (repeated) cross-sectional datasets may lead to biased inferences and an inability to expose credible causal relationships. As developing individual-level panel datasets is costly and time-consuming, this article presents a method to make better use of existing surveys fielded repeatedly among the same respondent pool without individual identifiers. Specifically, it sets out an approach to create a system of unique identifiers using information about respondents' background characteristics available within the original data. The result is a panel dataset that allows tracking (a subset of) individual respondents across time. The article discusses issues of feasibility, credibility as well as ethical considerations. The methodology has further practical value by highlighting data characteristics that can help minimize identifiability of respondents while creating public-release datasets.

• Fiva, Jon H. & King, Max-Emil Mohn (2023)
  Child Penalties in Politics

  Economic Journal, 134(658) , s. 648-670. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/uead084

  Vis sammendrag

  Women tend to experience a substantial decline in their labour income after their first child is born, while men do not. Do such ‘child penalties’ also exist in the political arena? Using comprehensive administrative data from Norway, we find that women are less likely than men to secure elected office after their first child is born. The effects manifest already from the nomination stage, where mothers receive less favourable rankings on party lists relative to comparable fathers. This paper broadens our understanding of a fundamental social issue in political representation and demonstrates how motherhood affects even positively selected women.

• Geys, Benny & Sørensen, Rune Jørgen (2023)
  A Post-politics Earnings Penalty? Evidence from Politicians’ Life-time Income Trajectories (1970-2019)

  Kyklos (Basel), 77(1) , s. 57-76. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/kykl.12358 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Politicians are commonly believed to gain financially from holding and/or having held office. We argue that there may often also be economic downsides to pursuing a political career, and investigate whether and when politicians can(not) capitalize on their political experience. We thereby study both entry into and exit from political office, and directly compare the returns to politics across government levels and types of politicians. Empirically, we build on detailed information from Norwegian administrative register data over the period 1970-2019 to study individual-level income developments before, during and after a political career at the national and local levels (covering nearly 22,000 individuals and 700,000 person-years). Using an event-study methodology, we show that politicians on average witness a significant income boost during their time in office. In sharp contrast, leaving political office is on average associated with a substantial drop in income, which generally outweighs the income gain from entry into office. These findings suggest that most politicians face a net present value loss from holding office.

• Sørensen, Rune Jørgen (2023)
  Educated politicians and government efficiency: Evidence from Norwegian local government

  Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 210, s. 163-179. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2023.04.007 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  The paper studies the effect of politicians’ education levels on government efficiency. Using data on Norwegian local government, the paper measures efficiency by DEA-productivity indicators and comprehensive indicators of service production. The identification of causal effects exploits close (within-list) elections to design an instrumental variable for council shares with higher education. Consistent with survey data, the estimates show that better-educated politicians induce higher levels of efficiency, particularly for old-age care services. A similar empirical strategy indicates that political experience has small efficiency effects. Educational misrepresentation has modest effects on fiscal allocations and is mostly canceled out by the efficiency gains.

• Dalen, Dag Morten (2023)
  Blåreseptanbud – også i praksis må legemiddelutgiftene finansieres

  [Popular Science Article]. Altinget.no,

• Dalen, Dag Morten (2023)
  Anbud truer ikke velferdsstaten

  [Popular Science Article]. Altinget.no,

• Gaasland, Ivar (2023)
  En reise fra klassisk til nyere handelsteori

  Internasjonal Politikk, 81(3) , s. 295-323. Doi: https://doi.org/10.23865/intpol.v81.5801 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

  Vis sammendrag

  Siden 1970-tallet har det vært en rivende utvikling innenfor handelsteori, motivert av empiriske observasjoner som ikke har passet med den klassiske teorien om komparative fortrinn. Ved komparative fortrinn drives handelen av forskjeller mellom land, og det utveksles varer som tilhører ulike næringer. Hva forklarer da den stadig økende handelen med liknende varer (som ølmerker) mellom liknende land (som Sverige og Danmark)? Og hvorfor domineres handelen av relativt få bedrifter, mens de fleste holder seg i hjemmemarkedet? Artikkelen ser nærmere på nyere handelsteori som kan bidra til å forklare slike observasjoner. Handel gjør det lettere å utnytte stordriftsfordeler i produksjon av differensierte varer innenfor en næring. Teorien viser at dette skaper gevinster ved handel som er uavhengig av komparative fortrinn. Et banebrytende trekk ved nyere teori er at produksjon og handel modelleres på bedriftsnivå. Ved å bringe inn forskjeller i produktivitet mellom bedrifter, skapes en ramme for å studere karakteristika ved bedrifter som opererer i internasjonale markeder. Tilgang til handelsdata på transaksjonsnivå – mellom kjøper og selger – har i tillegg åpnet et nytt univers for empiriske studier. I artikkelen gjennomgås og forklares noen viktige bidrag innenfor nyere handelsteori. Trekk ved norsk næringsstruktur drøftes avslutningsvis i lys av nyere handelsteori.

• Canova, Fabio & Paulsen, Kenneth Sæterhagen (2023)
  symbolic stationarization of dgse models

  Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,

• Canova, Fabio (2023)
  should we trust cross sectional multiplier estimates

  Journal of applied econometrics,

• Heggedal, Tom-Reiel; Helland, Leif & Moen, Espen Rasmus (2023)
  SEQUENTIAL PRICE SETTING: THEORY AND EVIDENCE FROM A LAB EXPERIMENT

  International Economic Review, 65(2) Doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12680 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  In the Varian (1980; American Economic Review 70(4) (1980), 651–59) model of price competition, a change from simultaneous to sequential price setting dramatically changes equilibrium strategies, and in the unique symmetric, equilibrium prices are pushed up to the monopoly price. There also exists an asymmetric equilibrium with lower average prices. Our main contribution is to test these predictions in the laboratory. Our data strongly support the qualitative model predictions. However, a fraction of players set low prices in accordance with the asymmetric equilibrium, which is puzzling. We show that the puzzle to a large extent can be resolved by introducing competitive preferences in the model.

• Kreiberg, David (2023)
  A confirmatory factor analysis approach for addressing the errors-in-variables problem with colored output noise

  Automatica, 156 Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.automatica.2023.111187 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Over the years, errors-in-variables (EIV) system identification has attracted considerable research interest. Among the many proposed approaches for identifying EIV models is confirmatory factor analysis (CFA), here referred to as EIV-CFA. This study extends previous research by presenting a EIV-CFA modeling framework that allows for colored output noise. Considerable attention is paid to the theoretical aspects of the minimum distance (MD) estimator. The finite sample performance of the MD estimator is briefly evaluated using simulation. The results suggest that model parameters are well estimated.

• Cox, Gary W.; Fiva, Jon H. & King, Max-Emil Mohn (2023)
  Bound by Borders: Voter Mobilization through Social Networks

  [Report Research]. Munich Society for the Promotion of Economic Research

• Harang, Fabian Andsem; Tindel, Samy & Wang, Xiaohua (2023)
  Volterra Equations Driven by Rough Signals 3: Probabilistic Construction of the Volterra Rough Path for Fractional Brownian Motions

  Journal of theoretical probability, Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10959-023-01251-y - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Based on the recent development of the framework of Volterra rough paths (Harang and Tindel in Stoch Process Appl 142:34–78, 2021), we consider here the probabilistic construction of the Volterra rough path associated to the fractional Brownian motion with H > 1 2 and for the standard Brownian motion. The Volterra kernel k(t,s) is allowed to be singular, and behaving similar to |t − s| −γ for some γ ≥ 0. The construction is done in both the Stratonovich and Itô senses. It is based on a modified Garsia–Rodemich–Romsey lemma which is of interest in its own right, as well as tools from Malliavin calculus. A discussion of challenges and potential extensions is provided.

• Geys, Benny & Mause, Karsten (2023)
  Politicians’ Extra-Parliamentary Activities and Lobbying

  The Political Economy of Lobbying: Channels of Influence and their Regulation, , s. 183-200. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-44393-0_9 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

  Vis sammendrag

  The extra-parliamentary activities of politicians have long been a highly controversial and heavily debated issue in the public and political spheres of many countries. This chapter provides an overview of the state of academic research into this potential channel of influence for lobbyists seeking to affect public policy decisions. First, the potential problems of politicians’ extra-parliamentary activities are explained on a theoretical level. Then, empirical studies are presented that have investigated the theoretical relationships using real-world data. In addition, we discuss the possibilities of, and limits to, regulating politicians’ extra-parliamentary activities and income.

• Lambais, Guilherme & Sigstad, Henrik (2023)
  Judicial subversion: The effects of political power on court outcomes

  Journal of Public Economics, 217 Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2022.104788 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Are politicians in power treated more leniently in court? We show that Brazilian mayoral candidates charged with misconduct are 65 percent less likely to be convicted if they narrowly win the election. Politicians play no direct role in the judges’ careers, suggesting that formal independence does not completely insulate the judiciary from political influence. The effect is driven by districts with few judges and by judges with higher career instability.

• Moss, Jonas & Grønneberg, Steffen (2023)
  Partial Identification of Latent Correlations with Ordinal Data

  Psychometrika, 88, s. 241-252. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11336-022-09898-y - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  The polychoric correlation is a popular measure of association for ordinal data. It estimates a latent correlation, i.e., the correlation of a latent vector. This vector is assumed to be bivariate normal, an assumption that cannot always be justified. When bivariate normality does not hold, the polychoric correlation will not necessarily approximate the true latent correlation, even when the observed variables have many categories. We calculate the sets of possible values of the latent correlation when latent bivariate normality is not necessarily true, but at least the latent marginals are known. The resulting sets are called partial identification sets, and are shown to shrink to the true latent correlation as the number of categories increase. Moreover, we investigate partial identification under the additional assumption that the latent copula is symmetric, and calculate the partial identification set when one variable is ordinal and another is continuous. We show that little can be said about latent correlations, unless we have impractically many categories or we know a great deal about the distribution of the latent vector. An open-source R package is available for applying our results.

• Gilbert, Richard; Riis, Christian & Riis, Erlend S. (2023)
  Innovation, Antitrust Enforcement, and the Inverted-U

  The Economics of Creative Destruction: New Research on Themes from Aghion and Howitt, , s. 77-103.

• Schönhage, Nanna Lauritz; Bækgaard, Martin & Geys, Benny (2023)
  The politics of distributing blame and credit: Evidence from a survey experiment with Norwegian local politicians

  European Journal of Political Research, 63(2) , s. 599-620. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-6765.12610 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  How do politicians attribute responsibility for good and poor policy outcomes across multiple stakeholders in a policy field where they themselves can affect service provision? Such ‘diffusion’ decisions are crucial to understand the political calculations underlying the allocation of blame and credit by office-holders. We study this issue using a between-subjects survey experiment fielded among local politicians in Norway (N = 1073). We find that local politicians attribute responsibility for outcomes in primary education predominantly to school personnel (regardless of whether performance is good or bad) and do not engage in local party-political blame games. However, we show that local politicians are keen to attribute responsibility for poor outcomes to higher levels of government, especially when these are unaligned with the party of the respondent. These findings suggest that vertical partisan blame-shifting prevails over horizontal partisan blame games in settings with a political consensus culture.

• Canova, Fabio & Paulsen, Kenneth Sæterhagen (2023)
  Symbolic stationarization of dynamic equilibrium models

  Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 154 Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2023.104710

  Vis sammendrag

  Dynamic equilibrium models are specified to track persistent time series. Thus, unit roots are typically introduced as exogenous driving forces and the optimality conditions adjusted to produce a stationary solution. This adjustment step requires tedious algebra and often leads to algebraic mistakes, especially in complicated models. We propose an algorithm employing differentiation rules that simplifies the step of rendering non-stationary models stationary. It is easy to implement and works when trends are stochastic or deterministic, exogenous or endogenously determined. Three examples illustrate the mechanics and the properties of the approach. A comparison with existing methods is provided (97 words).

• Flores, Alfonso Irarrazabal; Ma, Lin & Parra-Alvarez, Juan Carlos (2023)
  Optimal asset allocation for commodity sovereign wealth funds

  Quantitative finance (Print), 23(3) , s. 471-495. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/14697688.2022.2158918 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  This paper studies the dynamic asset allocation problem faced by an infinitively lived commodity-based sovereign wealth fund under incomplete markets. Assuming that the fund receives a non-tradable stream of commodity revenues until a predetermined date, the optimal consumption and investment strategies are state and time-dependent. Using data from the Norwegian Petroleum Fund, we find that the optimal demand for equity should decrease gradually from 60% to 40% over the next 60 years. However, the solution is particularly sensitive to the correlation between oil and stock price changes. We also estimate wealth-equivalent welfare losses, relative to the optimal rule, when following alternative suboptimal investment rules.

• Andvig, Jens Christopher & Maurseth, Per Botolf (2023)
  Intellektuell eiendomsrett og global fordeling – TRIPS, fotball og farmasøytisk industri

  Internasjonal Politikk, 81(3) , s. 435-464. Doi: https://doi.org/10.23865/intpol.v81.5816

  Vis sammendrag

  Artikkelen tar for seg for to former for intellektuell eiendomsrett: patentrett­igheter i farmasøytisk industri og internasjonale TV-senderettigheter i fotball. I begge tilfeller utvikles globale markeder som også krever global regulering. Inntektene som skapes, blir høye og veldig konsentrert. Samtidig kan selv en mindre omfordeling av rettigheter bidra til kraftig utjevning av inntekter og muligens økt global velferd.

• Benedictow, Andreas; Barth, Nini & Larsen, Erling Røed (2023)
  Linking housing Tobin's Q to land prices

  [Report Research]. OsloMet - storbyuniversitetet

• Bechtold, Florian; Harang, Fabian Andsem & Rana, Nimit (2023)
  Non-linear Young equations in the plane and pathwise regularization by noise for the stochastic wave equation

  Stochastics and Partial Differential Equations: Analysis and Computations, Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40072-023-00295-9 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  We study pathwise regularization by noise for equations on the plane in the spirit of the framework outlined by Catellier and Gubinelli (Stoch Process Appl 126(8):2323–2366, 2016). To this end, we extend the notion of non-linear Young equations to a two dimensional domain and prove existence and uniqueness of such equations. This concept is then used in order to prove regularization by noise for stochastic equations on the plane. The statement of regularization by noise is formulated in terms of the regularity of the local time associated to the perturbing stochastic field. For this, we provide two quantified example: a fractional Brownian sheet and the sum of two one-parameter fractional Brownian motions. As a further illustration of our regularization results, we also prove well-posedness of a 1D non-linear wave equation with a noisy boundary given by fractional Brownian motions. A discussion of open problems and further investigations is provided.

• Larsen, Erling Røed (2023)
  House price seasonality, market activity, and the December discount

  Real Estate Economics, 52(1) , s. 110-139. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/1540-6229.12463 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

  Vis sammendrag

  In Norway, house prices tend to drop in December. This regularity is persistent across regions and over time. I exploit a transaction data set with high temporal granularity to document and estimate the size of the December discount. I control for a composition effect using a hedonic model and I control for unobserved heterogeneity by using repeat sales and involving ask prices and appraisal values. By segmenting into submarkets, I search for determinants of price seasonality. The evidence suggests that the December effect is linked to time-on-market for each unit and transaction volumes within each submarkets.

• Maurseth, Per Botolf & Medin, Hege (2023)
  Bedrifter, internasjonal handel og internett

  Internasjonal Politikk, 81(3) , s. 356-378. Doi: https://doi.org/10.23865/intpol.v81.5461

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  Vi studerer samvariasjon mellom internettbruk og internasjonal handel. Vi finner at i mange mellom- og lavinntektsland er bedrifter mer tilbøyelige til å eksportere eller importere hvis de bruker internett som et kommunikasjonsmiddel. Effektene er store: probit-regresjoner indikerer at deltakelse i internasjonal handel er ca. femti prosent større for bedrifter som bruker internett sammenlignet med de som ikke gjør det. Dette er tilfelle både for eksport og import. Funnene har viktige implikasjoner. Bedrifters evne til å delta i internasjonal handel er viktig i en globalisert økonomi. Dermed kan politikk rettet mot å bedre internettinfrastrukturen potensielt være spesielt viktig for lands utviklingsmuligheter.

• Reiter, Michael; Sveen, Tommy & Weinke, Lutz (2023)
  Idiosyncratic Shocks, Lumpy Investment and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism

  The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, 23(2) , s. 1037-1055. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1515/bejm-2022-0129

  Vis sammendrag

  Standard (S, s) models of lumpy investment allow us to match many aspects of the micro data, but it is well known that the implied interest rate sen- sitivity of investment is unrealistically large. In fact, the micro-level lumpiness in investment puts empirical discipline on the modeling of investment decisions, and this makes it hard to explain the monetary policy transmission mechanism.

• Hunting, Martin Henrik; Hjort, Ingrid & Gjefsen, Hege Marie (2023)
  Covid-19 blant gjestearbeidere i Norge

  Tidsskrift for samfunnsforskning (TfS), 64(4) , s. 303-319. Doi: https://doi.org/10.18261/tfs.64.4.1 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  COVID-19 among guestworkers in Norway

• Eggum, Terje & Larsen, Erling Røed (2023)
  Is the Housing Market an Inequality Generator?

  The Review of Income and Wealth, Doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12658 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  We study inequality generated by capital gains in the housing market by exploiting two countrywide data sources in Norway: a registry of housing units and a database of transactions. We identify and follow all individuals in six birth cohorts in Norway, who were owners on January 1, 2007, and on January 1, 2019, and estimate the sum of their actual and potential capital gains from their owned and sold properties. We demonstrate that there is a substantial increase in capital gains inequality over the period, both across and within geographical strata and across and within birth cohorts. We find a statistically significant and economically meaningful difference between the distributions of capital gains of female and male owners in Oslo.

• Bogen, Øivind Johnsen; Murdoch, Zuzana & Geys, Benny (2023)
  The Bigger, the Better? Population Size and Satisfaction with Municipal Services

  [Popular Science Article]. DemoTrans Policy Brief, (5)

• Juodis, Artūras & Sarafidis, Vasilis (2023)
  New results on asymptotic properties of likelihood estimators with persistent data for small and large T

  SERIEs - Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, 14, s. 435-461. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13209-023-00286-y

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  This paper revisits the panel autoregressive model, with a primary emphasis on the unit-root case. We study a class of misspecified Random effects Maximum Likelihood (mRML) estimators when T is either fixed or large, and N tends to infinity. We show that in the unit-root case, for any fixed value of T, the log-likelihood function of the mRML estimator has a single mode at unity as . Furthermore, the Hessian matrix of the corresponding log-likelihood function is non-singular, unless the scaled variance of the initial condition is exactly zero. As a result, mRML is consistent and asymptotically normally distributed as N tends to infinity. In the large-T setup, it is shown that mRML is asymptotically equivalent to the bias-corrected FE estimator of Hahn and Kuersteiner (Econometrica 70(4):1639–1657, 2002). Moreover, under certain conditions, its Hessian matrix remains non-singular.

• Holden, Steinar & Hansen, Robert (2023)
  Pareto 2 Lærebok samfunnsøkonomi 2 programfag

  [Textbook]. Cappelen Damm AS

• Cui, Guowei; Sarafidis, Vasilis & Yamagata, Takashi (2023)
  IV estimation of spatial dynamic panels with interactive effects: large sample theory and an application on bank attitude towards risk

  Econometrics Journal, 26(2) , s. 124-146. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1093/ectj/utac026 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  This paper develops a new instrumental variables estimator for spatial, dynamic panels with interactive effects under large N and T asymptotics. For this class of models, most approaches available in the literature are based on quasi-maximum likelihood estimation. The approach put forward here is appealing from both a theoretical and a practical point of view for a number of reasons. First, it is linear in the parameters of interest and computationally inexpensive. Second, the IV estimator is free from asymptotic bias. Third, the approach can accommodate endogenous regressors as long as external instruments are available. The IV estimator is consistent and asymptotically normal as N, T → ∞ , such that N/T → c , where 0 < c < ∞ . We study the determinants of risk attitude of banking institutions. The results show that the capital regulation introduced by the Dodd–Frank Act has succeeded in influencing banks’ behaviour.

• Xiao, Jiaqi; Karavias, Yiannis, Juodis, Artūras, Sarafidis, Vasilis & Ditzen, Jan (2023)
  Improved tests for Granger noncausality in panel data

  The Stata Journal, 23(1) , s. 230-242. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1177/1536867X231162034 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  In this article, we introduce the xtgrangert command, which implements the panel Granger noncausality testing approach developed by Juodis, Karavias, and Sarafidis (2021, Empirical Economics 60: 93–112). This test offers superior size and power performance to existing tests, which stem from the use of a pooled estimator that has a faster NT−−−√ convergence rate. The test has several other useful properties: it can be used in multivariate systems; it has power against both homogeneous and heterogeneous alternatives; and it allows for cross-section dependence and cross-section heteroskedasticity.

• Geys, Benny; Murdoch, Zuzana & Sørensen, Rune Jørgen (2023)
  Public Employees as Elected Politicians: Assessing Direct and Indirect Substantive Effects of Passive Representation

  Journal of Politics, 86(1) , s. 170-182. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1086/726918 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  In many countries, public sector employees are eligible to hold political offices during their employment as civil servants. This often triggers conflict-of-interest concerns that elected public employees might sway policies to their professional benefit. In this article, we build on representation scholarship in political science and public administration to assess such substantive effects of public employees’ political representation using detailed Norwegian administrative register and survey data (2003–19). Our main results indicate that public employees differ little from other members within their party in terms of ideology and policy preferences. They do, however, appear to move their party slightly toward the left of the political spectrum, consistent with preference spillover effects induced by heightened public sector representation. Finally, using an instrumental variable approach exploiting close elections, we find that political representation of public employees is associated with at best modest public spending, employment, and wage effects at the local level.

• Vos, Ignace De; Everaert, Gerdie & Sarafidis, Vasilis (2023)
  A method to evaluate the rank condition for CCE estimators

  Econometric Reviews, 43(2-4) , s. 123-155. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/07474938.2023.2292383 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  We develop a binary classifier to evaluate whether the rank condition (RC) is satisfied or not for the Common Correlated Effects (CCE) estimator. The RC postulates that the number of unobserved factors, m, is not larger than the rank of the unobserved matrix of average factor loadings, ϱ. When this condition fails, the CCE estimator is inconsistent, in general. Despite its importance, to date this rank condition could not be verified. The difficulty lies in the fact that factor loadings are unobserved, such that ϱ cannot be directly determined. The key insight in this article is that ϱ can be consistently estimated with existing techniques through the matrix of cross-sectional averages of the data. Similarly, m can be estimated consistently from the data using existing methods. Thus, a binary classifier, constructed by comparing estimates of m and ϱ, correctly determines whether the RC is satisfied or not as (N,T)→∞. We illustrate the practical relevance of testing the RC by studying the effect of the Dodd-Frank Act on bank profitability. The RC classifier reveals that the rank condition fails for a subperiod of the sample, in which case the estimated effect of bank size on profitability appears to be biased upwards.

• Garibaldi, Pietro; Moen, Espen Rasmus & Pissarides, Christopher A. (2023)
  Static and dynamic inefficiencies in an optimizing model of epidemics

  Economic Theory, 77, s. 9-48. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00199-023-01533-w - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Several externalities arise when agents shield optimally to avoid infection during an epidemic. We classify externalities into static and dynamic and compare the decentralized and optimal solutions when agents derive utility from social interaction. For low infection costs agents shield too little; for high costs they shield too much because of a “rat race to shield”: they delay social action until other agents contract the disease and society reaches herd immunity. Other externalities drive more wedges between the private and social outcomes. The expectation of a fully effective vaccine that ends the disease faster changes results, reversing excessive shielding.

• Murdoch, Zuzana; Geys, Benny & Sørensen, Rune Jørgen (2023)
  Political Representation of Public Sector Employees

  jop.blogs.uni-hamburg.de,

• Murdoch, Zuzana; Geys, Benny & Sørensen, Rune Jørgen (2023)
  Political Representation of Public Sector Employees

  [Popular Science Article]. DemoTrans Policy Brief, (4)

• Evensen, Charlotte Bjørnhaug; Foros, Øystein, Haugen, Atle & Kind, Hans Jarle (2023)
  Size-based wholesale price discrimination under endogenous inside options

  [Report Research]. Konkurransetilsynet Rapport 3/2023

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  Individual retailers may choose to invest in a substitute to a dominant supplier’s products (inside option) as a way of improving its position towards the supplier. Given that a large retailer has stronger investment incentives than a small retailer, a large retailer may obtain a selective rebate (size-based price discrimination). We study the incentives of dominant suppliers to commit to uniform pricing in wholesale markets. The seminal literature on wholesale price discrimination has provided clearcut results when the source of wholesale price discrimination is inside options: a dominant supplier will commit to uniform wholesale pricing, and consumers will be harmed. In a model with endogenous inside options and differentiated retailers, we show that the outcome is ambiguous. We confirm the result if retailers are close substitutes. If, however, the retailers are weak substitutes, the outcome flips around. Consumers are better off under uniform pricing, but the supplier has no incentives to commit to uniform pricing. Interestingly, for an intermediate level of substitutability among the retailers, supplier and consumer interests can coincide.

• Mork, Knut Anton; Harang, Fabian Andsem, Trønnes, Haakon Andreas & Bjerketvedt, Vegard Skonseng (2023)
  Dynamic spending and portfolio decisions with a soft social norm

  Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 151 Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2023.104667 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  We explore the implications of a preference ordering for an investor-consumer with a strong preference for keeping consumption above an exogenous social norm, but who is willing to tolerate occasional dips below it. We do this by splicing two CRRA preference orderings, one with high curvature below the norm and the other with low curvature at or above it. We find this formulation appealing for many endowment funds and sovereign wealth funds, including the Norwegian Government Pension Fund Global, which inspired our research. We derive an analytical solution, which we use to describe key properties of the policy functions for consumption and portfolio allocation. We find that annual spending should not only be significantly lower than the expected financial return, but mostly also procyclical. In particular, financial losses should, as a rule, be followed by larger than proportional spending cuts, except when some smoothing is needed to keep spending from falling too far below the social norm. Yet, at very low wealth levels, spending should be kept particularly low in order to build sufficient wealth to raise consumption above the social norm. Financial risk taking should also be modest and procyclical, so that the investor sometimes may want to “buy at the top” and “sell at the bottom.” Many of these features are shared by habit-formation models and other models with some lower bound for consumption. However, our specification is more flexible and thus more easily adaptable to actual fund management. The nonlinearity of the policy functions may present challenges regarding delegation to professional managers. However, simpler rules of thumb with constant or slowly moving equity share and consumption-wealth ratio can reach almost the same expected discounted utility. Nevertheless, the constant levels will then look very different from the implications of expected CRRA utility or Epstein–Zin preferences in that consumption is much lower.

• Murdoch, Zuzana; MacCarthaigh, Muiris & Geys, Benny (2023)
  It's about time! Temporal dynamics and longitudinal research designs in public administration

  Public Administration Review, 83(6) , s. 1727-1736. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/puar.13758 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Many of the fundamental research questions in public administration relate to individual- or organization-level temporal dynamics, including the impact of public sector reforms, (in)stability of public policies and organizations, development of public service motivation, or the workplace socialization of public employees. However, theoretical, methodological, and empirical public administration scholarship continues to take time and temporal dynamics insufficiently seriously. This constitutes a major shortcoming within the profession and implies that we are yet to unlock the transformative potential of longitudinal research. Building on the recent development of novel research infrastructures that can support the study of temporal dynamics of—and within—public organizations, this Symposium pushes for a “longitudinal turn” in the study of public administration. We maintain that more concerted efforts to apply a temporal lens to our research endeavors are critical to theorize, empirically assess, and understand public administrations as well as the bureaucrats employed within them.

• Geys, Benny; Connolly, Sara, Kassim, Hussein & Murdoch, Zuzana (2023)
  Staff reallocations and employee attitudes towards organizational aims: evidence using longitudinal data from the European Commission

  Public Management Review, 25(12) , s. 2323-2343. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/14719037.2023.2222139 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Organizational reforms often involve substantial staff reallocations, creating both winners and losers within the same organization. We argue that allocating less (more) staff to a department signals a decrease (increase) in organizational support towards that department and its employees. We hypothesize that staff members respond to this signal by adjusting their support for key organizational aims and their plans to stay in the organization. We test these propositions using a two-wave survey conducted within the European Commission. Consistent with theoretical arguments, we find that staff (re)allocations trigger distinct reactions among winners and losers as well as across staff types.

• Aastveit, Knut Are; Albuquerque, Bruno & Anundsen, André Kallåk (2023)
  Changing Supply Elasticities and Regional Housing Booms

  Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 55(7) , s. 1749-1783. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.13009

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  Developments in U.S. house prices over the past decade mirror those of the 1996–2006 boom. Construction activity has, however, been weak. Using data for 254 U.S. metropolitan areas, we show that housing supply elasticities have fallen markedly in recent years. We find that housing supply elasticities have declined more in areas in which land-use regulation has tightened the most, and in areas that experienced the sharpest housing busts. Consistent with the declining housing supply elasticities, we find that monetary policy shocks have had a stronger effect on house prices during the past decade than during the previous boom. At the same time, building permits respond less.

• Cirone, Alexandra; Cox, Gary W., Fiva, Jon H., Smith, Daniel M. & Teele, Dawn (2023)
  Gender Gaps in Political Seniority Systems

  [Report Research]. Elsevier

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  Closed-list proportional representation (PR) generates higher average levels of descriptive representation for women. But because parties control candidate promotion, often based on seniority rules, gender bias in the seniority system can potentially curtail women’s career advancement. We theorize how seniority systems might operate in a gender-neutral way at three stages of a typical national-level political career: (1) nomination, (2) renomination and rank advancement, and (3) promotion to cabinet. Using detailed candidate-level data from Norway covering more than a century of elections, we find that career advancement in the seniority system is generally gender-neutral. However, we also identify two “majoritarian bottlenecks”—local mayoralties and top list positions—where women’s seniority-based career advancement may face challenges, and describe how parties appear to have employed workarounds to prevent these bottlenecks from adversely affecting women’s representation at higher levels of the political hierarchy.

• Bergholt, Drago; Røisland, Øistein, Sveen, Tommy & Torvik, Ragnar (2023)
  Monetary policy when export revenues drop

  Journal of International Money and Finance, 137 Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2023.102893 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  We study how monetary policy should respond to shocks that permanently alter the steady state structure of the economy. In such a case monetary policy affects not only the short run misallocations due to nominal rigidities, but also relative prices which stimulate reallocation of capital. We consider a permanent and negative shock to export revenues that requires a larger traded sector and a smaller non-traded sector in the new steady state. This reallocation calls for a change in relative prices during the transition, but may also lead to a period of high unemployment. We show how an appropriate monetary policy could mitigate the welfare costs of the transition by allowing the exchange rate to depreciate, and thereby allowing inflation to increase in the short run. Traditional monetary policy regimes, such as inflation targeting or a fixed exchange rate, would imply high unemployment and inefficiently slow transition. Stabilizing nominal wage growth, in contrast, would be close to the welfare-optimal monetary policy.

• Oglend, Atle; Asche, Frank, Pincinato, Ruth Beatriz & Straume, Hans-Martin (2023)
  Price dispersion and the stability of trade*

  The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 125(3) , s. 789-820. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/sjoe.12526 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Research on trade relationships has documented a high rate of relationship breakup and churning. We use data on Norwegian exports to document two stylized facts about the stability of trade relationships. First, the probability of relationship breakup increases in the deviation of the relationship-specific price from a reference price. Second, relationship hazards follow Zipf's law. We propose a search model with limited information and search frictions to explain these facts. Reference prices provide information on outside trade options that inform optimal breakups, leading to the first stylized fact. Strong heterogeneity in breakup frictions across relationships can explain the Zipf's law hazards.

• Røisland, Øistein; Sveen, Tommy & Torvik, Ragnar (2023)
  Samspillet mellom penge- og finanspolitikken i en liten, åpen økonomi

  Samfunnsøkonomen, 137(6) , s. 41-52. - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Vi utvikler en teori for det optimale samspillet mellom penge- og finanspolitikken i konjunkturstyringen. Mens en i utgangspunktet kunne tro at penge- og finanspolitikken bør dra konjunkturene i samme retning, viser vi at dette ikke nødvendigvis er tilfelle. Dersom det ikke er store kostnader ved å bruke renten aktivt, skal penge- og finanspolitikken dra i hver sin retning ved inflasjonssjokk og valutakurssjokk. Grunnen er at pengepolitikken kan påvirke inflasjonen både gjennom etterspørselskanalen og gjennom valutakurskanalen, mens finanspolitikken bare kan benytte etterspørselskanalen. Pengepolitikken har derfor et komparativt fortrinn i å stabilisere inflasjonen, mens finanspolitikken har et komparativt fortrinn i å stabilisere produksjonen. Kun når det er tilstrekkelig store kostnader ved å endre renten, vil det være optimalt at penge- og finanspolitikken skal dra i samme retning ved inflasjonssjokk og valutakurssjokk. Kostnader ved bruk av finanspolitikk har ingen betydning for om penge- og finanspolitikk skal dra i samme retning eller ikke, men har implikasjoner for hvor sterk virkemiddelbruken bør være.

• Catellier, Rémi & Harang, Fabian Andsem (2023)
  Pathwise regularization of the stochastic heat equation with multiplicative noise through irregular perturbation

  Annales de l'I.H.P. Probabilites et statistiques, 59(3) , s. 1572-1609. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1214/22-AIHP1302 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Existence and uniqueness of solutions to the stochastic heat equation with multiplicative spatial noise is studied. In the spirit of pathwise regularization by noise, we show that a perturbation by a sufficiently irregular continuous path establish wellposedness of such equations, even when the drift and diffusion coefficients are given as generalized functions or distributions. In addition we prove regularity of the averaged field associated to a Lévy fractional stable motion, and use this as an example of a perturbation regularizing the multiplicative stochastic heat equation.

• Agrell, Christian; Dahl, Kristina Rognlien & Hafver, Andreas (2023)
  Optimal sequential decision making with probabilistic digital twins

  SN Applied Sciences, 5(4) Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s42452-023-05316-9 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  In this study, we present a formal defnition of the probabilistic digital twin (PDT). Digital twins are emerging in many industries, typically consisting of simulation models and data associated with a specifc physical system. In order to defne probabilistic digital twins, we discuss how epistemic uncertainty can be treated using measure theory, by modelling epistemic information via sigma-algebras. A gentle introduction to the necessary mathematical theory is provided throughout the paper, together with a number of examples to illustrate the core concepts. We then introduce the problem of optimal sequential decision making. That is, when the outcome of each decision may inform the next. We discuss how this problem may be solved theoretically, and the current limitations that prohibit most practical applications. As a numerically tractable alternative, we propose a generic approximate solution using deep reinforcement learning together with neural networks defined on sets. We illustrate the method on a practical problem, considering optimal information gathering for the estimation of a failure probability.

• Brekke, Kurt Richard; Dalen, Dag Morten & Straume, Odd Rune (2023)
  The price of cost-effectiveness thresholds

  [Report Research]. Department of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics

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  Health systems around world are increasingly adopting cost-effectiveness (CE) analysis to inform decisions about access and reimbursement. We study how CE thresholds imposed by a health plan for granting reimbursement affect drug producers pricing incentives and patients access to new drugs. Analysing a sequential pricing game between an incumbent drug producer and a potential entrant with a new drug, we show that CE thresholds may have adverse effects for payers and patients. A stricter CE threshold may induce the incumbent to switch pricing strategy from entry accommodation to entry deterrence, limiting patients access to the new drug. Otherwise, irrespective of whether entry is deterred or accommodated, a stricter CE threshold is never pro-competitive and may in fact facilitate a collusive outcome with higher prices of both drugs. Compared to a laissez-faire policy, the use of CE thresholds can only increase the surplus of a health plan if it leads to entry deterrence in which the price reduction by the incumbent necessary to deter entry outweighs the health loss to patients not getting access to the new drug.

• Brekke, Kurt Richard; Dalen, Dag Morten & Straume, Odd Rune (2023)
  Taking the competitor’s pill: when combination therapies enter pharmaceutical markets

  [Report Research]. Institutt for samfunnsøkonomi

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  We study the competitive effects of combination therapies in pharmaceutical markets, which crucially hinge on the additional therapeutic value of combinatory use of drugs and the therapeutic substitutability with the most relevant monotherapy. With large additional therapeutic value, the introduction of combination therapies leads to higher prices and, somewhat paradoxically, may reduce the health plan's surplus. Although combination therapies imply that drugs become both substitutes and complements, we show that drug prices increase if the firms are allowed to coordinate their prices. Allowing for price discrimination might increase allocational efficiency, but only at the expense of higher purchasing costs.

• Carvalho, Bruno P.; Custódio, Claudia, Geys, Benny, Mendes, Diogo & Peralta, Susana (2023)
  Information, perceptions, and electoral behaviour of young voters: A randomised controlled experiment

  Electoral Studies: an international journal on voting and electoral systems and strategy, 84 Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2023.102625 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  The way people absorb and process politically relevant information is central to their subsequent political behaviour (in terms of turnout and vote choice). Nonetheless, little is known about how young voters – who might be more impressionable than more experienced voters – respond to the provision of such information. In this article, we design a between-subject randomised controlled trial that exposes a sample of university students to positive, neutral or negative information about central government performance before the 2017 Portuguese local elections. We find that young voters update their perceptions more when exposed to negative news. This negativity bias is stronger for first-time voters. We also find that negative information significantly affects turnout of initially undecided young voters. Our results imply that sensitivity to information is heterogeneous and that some young voters may be prone to manipulation through the provision of negative news.

• Brekke, Kurt Richard; Dalen, Dag Morten & Straume, Odd Rune (2023)
  The price of cost-effectiveness thresholds under therapeutic competition in pharmaceutical markets

  Journal of Health Economics, 90 Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2023.102778 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

  Vis sammendrag

  Health systems around world are increasingly adopting cost-effectiveness (CE) analysis to inform decisions about access and reimbursement. We study how CE thresholds imposed by a health plan for granting reimbursement affect drug producers’ pricing incentives and patients’ access to new drugs. Analysing a sequential pricing game between an incumbent drug producer and a potential entrant with a new drug, we show that CE thresholds may have adverse effects for payers and patients. A stricter CE threshold may induce the incumbent to switch pricing strategy from entry accommodation to entry deterrence, limiting patients’ access to the new drug. Otherwise, irrespective of whether entry is deterred or accommodated, a stricter CE threshold is never pro-competitive and may in fact facilitate a collusive outcome with higher prices of both drugs. Compared to a laissez-faire policy, the use of CE thresholds when an incumbent monopolist is challenged by therapeutic substitutes can only increase the surplus of a health plan if it leads to entry deterrence. In this case the price reduction by the incumbent necessary to deter entry outweighs the health loss to patients who do not get access to the new drug.

• Grytten, Jostein Ivar; Skau, Irene & Sørensen, Rune Jørgen (2023)
  Fertility and immigration: Do immigrant mothers hand down their fertility pattern to the next generation? Evidence from Norway

  Economics and Human Biology, 52 Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ehb.2023.101339 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

• Brekke, Kjell Arne; Ciccone, Alice, Heggedal, Tom-Reiel & Helland, Leif (2023)
  Reference points in sequential bargaining: theory and experiment

  The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 126(2) , s. 254-288. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/sjoe.12552 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  We introduce loss aversion in an infinite-horizon, alternating-offers model. When outside options serve as reference points, the equilibrium of our model follows that of the standard Rubinstein bargaining model, i.e., outside options do not affect the equilibrium unless they are binding. However, when reference points are given by the resources players contribute to the pie, the bargaining outcome changes such that a player's share increases in her contribution. We test our model's predictions in the laboratory. As predicted, only binding outside options impact the division of the pie. Data also show that contributions matter for bargaining outcomes when they are activated as reference points, but not quite as predicted by our theory. Proposers gain a higher share of the pie only when they have contributed a higher share than the opponent has.

• Aastveit, Knut Are; Anundsen, André Kallåk, Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen & Larsen, Erling Røed (2023)
  Housing bubble scars

  [Professional Article]. Housing Lab Working Paper Series,

• Bhuller, Manudeep; Vigtel, Trond Christian, Ferraro, Domenico & Kostøl, Andreas Ravndal (2023)
  The Internet, Search Frictions and Aggregate Unemployment

  NBER Technical Working Paper Series, Doi: https://doi.org/10.3386/w30911

• Brekke, Kurt Richard; Dalen, Dag Morten & Straume, Odd Rune (2023)
  Competing with precision: incentives for developing predictive biomarker tests

  The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 126(1) , s. 60-97. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/sjoe.12543 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  We study the incentives of drug producers to develop predictive biomarkers, taking into account strategic interaction between drug producers and health plans. For this purpose, we develop a two-dimensional spatial framework that allows us to capture the informational role of biomarkers and their effects on price competition and treatment choices. Although biomarkers increase the information available to prescribers, we identify an anticompetitive effect on the prices set by producers of therapeutically substitutable drugs. We also find that better information about each patient's most therapeutically appropriate drug does not necessarily lead to more efficient treatment outcomes.

• Geys, Benny; Lægreid, Per, Murdoch, Zuzana & Trondal, Jarle (2023)
  The impact of terrorism on civil servants: Longitudinal evidence from the July 22, 2011 attack in Norway

  Public Administration Review, 83(6) , s. 1772-1784. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/puar.13694 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Building on a growing literature assessing the societal impact of terrorism, this article analyzes whether and how a terror attack targeting public institutions affects civil servants in their day-to-day work. This is an important question to enhance our understanding of how terrorism can (or cannot) affect the operation of core government functions. Theoretically, the study contributes to a broader account of the political consequences of terrorism by combining insights from social identity and organization theory. Empirically, we exploit a two-wave survey fielded before and after the 2011 terror attack in Norway, which allows us to study the same civil servants (N = 186) before and after this event. While terrorists wish to disrupt public institutions, our findings indicate that a terror attack targeting core government institutions strengthens internal cohesion and increases attention to political signals in work tasks. We discuss implications of these effects for the functioning of democratic government.

• Geys, Benny; Lægreid, Per, Murdoch, Zuzana & Trondal, Jarle (2023)
  Organizational Stability and Resocialization in Public Administrations: Theory and Evidence from Norwegian Civil Servants (1986-2016)

  Public Administration, 102(3) , s. 1137-1155. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/padm.12968 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  The organizational theory approach to public administration emphasizes that organizational features of public bureaucracies shape civil servants' role perceptions and opinions. This study brings forward a novel refinement of this theoretical framework by arguing that such processes of organizational resocialization require intertemporal consistency of the organizational environment. We empirically test this proposition by combining individual-level longitudinal data from a panel of Norwegian civil servants (1986–2016; N ≈ 375) with information about organizational changes in ministerial structures since 1945. Using individuals' task portfolio as our main organizational “influencer” of interest, we confirm that the impact of individuals' task portfolio on their role perceptions only strengthens over time for individuals working in ministries with a high level of organizational stability. This finding adds an important scope condition—namely, intertemporal stability—to the traditional organizational theory argument about what shapes civil servants' role perceptions and opinions.

• Straume, Hans-Martin; Asche, Frank, Oglend, Atle, Gaasland, Ivar, Pettersen, Ingrid Kristine & Sogn-Grundvåg, Geir (2023)
  The structure of Norwegian seafood trade

  Marine Policy, 159, s. 1-9. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2023.105921 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  While seafood is a highly traded commodity, lack of data has largely prevented examination of the firms and industries that are conducting the actual transactions. In this paper we use highly disaggregated data to provide an overview of the seafood exports from Norway, the world’s 2nd largest seafood exporting country, and a country where fisheries as well as aquaculture are important industries. The industry has a global reach with Norwegian seafood reaching 172 different countries in the period 2016–2020. While there are as many as 437 different exporting firms, this is relatively few firms compared to the 11,024 different buyers that import Norwegian seafood. There is significant heterogeneity in the export sector from very small firms handling only a few products to very large firms handling a large variety of products. The average firm is quite specialized and serves only 9 markets. However, there are also a handful of large exporters who ship products from all three main sectors in the Norwegian seafood industry to a large number of markets. The 10% largest companies make up 39% of the total export value and provide significant synergies between the aquaculture, pelagic and whitefish sectors.

• Pettersen, Ingrid Kristine; Asche, Frank, Bronnmann, Julia, Sogn-Grundvåg, Geir & Straume, Hans-Martin (2023)
  Is capture-based aquaculture viable? The case of Atlantic cod in Norway

  Aquaculture, 572, s. 1-7. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aquaculture.2023.739520 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Capture-based aquaculture (CBA) is an important branch of the aquaculture industry that differs from closed cycle farming in that the stocking material consists of captured wild fish or other aquatic organisms. By skipping the difficult early production stages of fish farming, producers can test whether assumed market advantages such as high quality and consistent supply result in higher prices – and whether these are high enough to incentivize further development of CBA and eventually close the production cycle. CBA-initiatives can also be supported by different policy measures to stimulate the activity. Since these measures involve costs, it is important to know at what level and for how long these measures should be implemented to promote economically sustainable CBA activities. We study CBA of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) in Norway and find an average price premium of 26% compared to wild harvested cod, but with large interannual variation. However, declining quantities of cod from CBA following reductions in a quota bonus scheme to stimulate activity, indicates that the price premium is not sufficiently large to incentivize further development of the CBA branch of the Norwegian cod industry.

• Pandey, Rudresh; Asche, Frank, Misund, Bård, Nygård, Rune, Adewumi, Olugbenga Michael, Straume, Hans-Martin & Zhang, Dengjun (2023)
  Production growth, company size, and concentration: The case of salmon

  Aquaculture, 577 Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aquaculture.2023.739972 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  The largest companies in salmon aquaculture are rapidly getting bigger due to organic growth as well as mergers and acquisitions, and the largest are now multi-national companies. There are two main explanations for this growth: 1) An attempt to become large enough to exploit market power, or 2) Size is necessary to adopt new technologies that increase the efficient scale. In this paper, we investigate the degree of concentration in each of the main producer countries for Atlantic salmon, as well as globally for Atlantic salmon, all farmed salmon, and all salmon to account for the global nature of the market using Herfindahl-Hirschman Indexes. The results indicate a high degree of concentration in the smaller producer nations but not in Chile and Norway. Globally, the Atlantic salmon industry can be characterized as unconcentrated, and it becomes even more so when the supply of other farmed salmon and wild salmon is accounted for. Hence, the main motivation for the increased company size appears to be capacity to adopt new knowledge and technology.

• Garibaldi, Pietro; Moen, Espen Rasmus & Pissarides, Christopher A. (2023)
  The SAM Approach to Epidemic Models

  Research in Labor Economics, 50, s. 1-23. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1108/S0147-912120230000050001

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  We discuss the connections between epidemiology models and the search and matching (SAM) approach and draw conclusions about modeling the trade-offs between lockdowns and disease spread. We review the pre-COVID epidemics literature, which was mainly by epidemiologists, and the post-COVID surge in economics papers that use meeting technologies to model the trade-offs. We argue that modeling the decentralized equilibrium with economic trade-offs gives rise to substantially different results from the earlier epidemics literature, but policy action is still welfare-improving because of several externalities.

• Korotov, Sergey & Vatne, Jon Eivind (2023)
  On Dihedral Angle Sums of Prisms and Hexahedra

  International journal of computational geometry and applications, 33(3-4) , s. 85-95. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1142/S0218195923500036 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Various angle characteristics are used (e.g. in finite element methods or computer graphics) when evaluating the quality of computational meshes which may consist, in the three-dimensional case, of tetrahedra, prisms, hexahedra and pyramids. Thus, it is of interest to derive (preferably tight) bounds for dihedral angle sums, i.e. sums of angles between faces, of such mesh elements. For tetrahedra this task was solved by Gaddum in 1952. For pyramids, this was resolved by Korotov, Lund and Vatne in 2022. In this paper, we compute tight bounds for the remaining two cases, hexahedra and prisms.

• Straume, Hans-Martin; Asche, Frank & Øglend, Atle (2023)
  Intermediaries in Norwegian salmon exports

  Aquaculture, 581 Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aquaculture.2023.740437 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Production of a number of important aquaculture species is highly export oriented, and intermediaries play an important role in the supply chains facilitating the trade. This paper examines the role of intermediaries (e.g. trading companies) in Norwegian salmon exports. Using customs data for the period 2016–2019, we identify two groups of firms in Norwegian salmon exports according to their main economic activity: producers that also export their salmon and independent intermediaries. We show that although both groups of firms have established a global trade network, several interesting differences exists between the two groups. A relatively small number of producers take a significantly higher share of overall exports than a large number of intermediaries, as there is a large number of smaller companies in the second group. On average, producers supply more distant markets with larger volumes than intermediaries. Market concentration measures indicate that a high share of the exports is concentrated among the top exporters in both groups of firms. Interestingly, intermediaries are in many markets able to charge a price premium for several salmon products relatively to the producers.

• Straume, Hans-Martin; Asche, Frank, Landazuri-Tveteraas, Ursula, Misund, Bård, Pettersen, Ingrid Kristine & Zhang, Dengjun (2023)
  Product forms and price transmission in major European salmon markets

  Aquaculture, 582 Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aquaculture.2023.740508 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Product development is often an important component in increasing demand for successful aquaculture species. However, this topic has not received much attention due to limited data availability. In this paper, we investigate how the composition of salmon sales differ by product form by comparing the four largest European countries in terms of salmon consumption: France, Germany, Spain and the United Kingdom. The composition of salmon products varies significantly across countries, with unprocessed products dominating in Spain and highly processed products being the most important in the United Kingdom. We also find a high degree of price transmission for the less processed consumer products in all markets, while the price transmission is zero for most highly processed products. This is important since it implies that the more processed consumer products are largely are insulated from the high price volatility of salmon at the producer level.

• Kost, Dominique; Kopperud, Karoline, Buch, Robert, Kuvaas, Bård & Olsson, Ulf Henning (2023)
  The competing influence of psychological job control on family-to-work conflict

  Journal of Occupational and Organizational Psychology, 96(2) , s. 351-377. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/joop.12426 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Psychological job control has typically been negatively related to work-to-family and family-to-work conflict. Based on the job demand-resource model and boundary theory, we argue that psychological job control may indirectly be positively related to family-to-work conflict by both increasing supplemental work, that is, the rate of engagement in work outside of formal working hours without receiving compensation aided by mobile technology, and work-to-family conflict. We hypothesize that this proposed positive indirect relationship will be lower among employees who perceive a high segmentation norm at their workplace. Based on a two-wave study of 4518 employees, we obtained support for a serial moderated mediation model that suggests a dual effect of psychological job control on family-to-work conflict, such that psychological job control was positively associated with family-to-work conflict through supplemental work and work-to-family conflict at low levels of segmentation norms. By examining the dual effects of psychological job control, this study aims to further understand the mechanisms involved in determining whether and when psychological job control, together with supplemental work, encourages employees to uphold or cross boundaries between work and nonwork domains. Our findings imply that psychological job control can both be a resource and a demand depending on the levels of segmentation norms.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2023)
  Perspektiver på norsk oljepolitikk. Fremtidige oljeinntekter bør gå til finansiering av klimatiltak i land som ikke har mulighet til å innfri Paris-avtalen på egen hånd.

  [Professional Article]. Internasjonal Politikk, 81(3) , s. 492-499. Doi: https://doi.org/10.23865/intpol.v81.5819

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  Artikkelen er inspirert av et avisinnlegg skrevet av Auke Lont, Harald Norvik og Peter Melby der de tar til orde for at framtidige oljeinntekter bør går til klimatiltak i andre land i stedet for til ytterligere innskudd i det nåværende oljefondet. Artikkelen beskriver den norske oljepolitikken fra tidlig 1960-tall til i dag. Den har vært en udelt suksess som har tjent Norge godt. Men norsk oljeproduksjon har bidratt til store utslipp av CO2. Det er den moralske begrunnelsen for at framtidige norske oljeinntekter bør brukes til klimatiltak.

• Andersen, Jørgen Juel & Sørensen, Rune Jørgen (2022)
  The zero-rent society: Evidence from hydropower and petroleum windfalls in Norwegian local governments

  Journal of Public Economics, 209 Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2022.104650 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Economic theory and evidence suggest that political leaders take advantage of government revenue windfalls – particularly from natural resource exploitation – to enrich themselves. We revisit this hypothesis by combining information on massive local government hydropower and petroleum revenues in Norway with five decades of registry data on individual mayors’ earnings and wealth. We find that, while the resource expansions massively boost local government revenues and spending, there is no evidence that mayors exploit the windfalls to enrich themselves. We attribute our precisely estimated zero-finding to characteristics of the Norwegian institutional and informational environment. First, we show that the revenue windfalls induce citizens to seek political information and raise their rates of electoral participation. Second, in the early sample period when local newspapers were more important, mayors’ wage responses were negatively related to newspaper coverage. In sum, our results suggest that voter information is a key disciplining accountability mechanism, potentially explaining our zero-rent result.

• Stauskas, Ovidijus (2022)
  Complete Theory for CCE Under Heterogeneous Slopes and General Unknown Factors

  Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 82(5) Doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12523 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  A recent study of Westerlund (CCE in Panels with General Unknown Factors, The Econometrics Journal, 21, 264-276, 2018) showed that a very popular common correlated effects (CCE) estimator is significantly more applicable than it was thought before. Specifically, the common factors can have much more general time series properties than stationarity. This helps to alleviate the uncertainty over deterministic model components (e.g. trends) since they can be treated as unknown, similarly to unobserved stochastic (possibly non-stationary) factors. While very promising, these theoretical results concern only the baseline scenario of the pooled (CCEP) estimator in the restrictive case of homogeneous model parameters, which is asymptotically biased and requires bias correction. Economic theory often hints at individuals exhibiting slope heterogeneity, which is a more realistic case when CCE is unbiased. Therefore, it is natural to extend the findings on general unknown factors to the case of unit-specific slopes and understand if unbiasedness still holds, which would be an empirically handy feature. It is especially interesting, because many previous studies on heterogeneous slopes did not rigorously account for the usual situation when the factors are proxied by more explanatory variables than needed. Hence, the current study introduces more completeness in the CCE theory. We demonstrate that save for some regularity conditions, CCEP and the mean group (CCEMG) estimators are asymptotically normal and unbiased under heterogeneous slopes and general unknown factors.

• Heggedal, Tom-Reiel; Helland, Leif & Knutsen, Magnus Våge (2022)
  The power of outside options in the presence of obstinate types

  Games and Economic Behavior, 136, s. 454-468. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2022.10.011 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  We experimentally investigate the role of two-sided reputation-building in dynamic bargaining. In the absence of outside options, rational bargainers have an incentive to imitate obstinate types that are committed to an aggressive demand, inducing delay. Outside options remove this incentive and ensure immediate agreement whenever two rational bargainers match. Our data support the hypothesis that outside options cut down on imitation and ensure timely agreements, but only if subjects share a belief about what constitutes obstinacy. Further, we find that outside options are exercised excessively and that efficiency is no better than it is in their absence. We ascribe this result to the presence of fairness preferences in the subject pool.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon & Gylfason, Thorvaldur (2022)
  Awakening from the Chinese Dream

  Challenge magazine, Doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/05775132.2022.2046881

• Stauskas, Ovidijus; Westerlund, Joakim & Norkute, Milda (2022)
  The factor analytical approach in trending near unit root panels

  Journal of Time Series Analysis, 43(3) , s. 501-508.

• Dalen, Dag Morten (2022)
  Anbud – så lenge det varer

  [Professional Article]. Dagens medisin,

• Geys, Benny; Heggedal, Tom-Reiel & Sørensen, Rune Jørgen (2022)
  Age and vote choice: Is there a conservative shift among older voters?

  Electoral Studies: an international journal on voting and electoral systems and strategy, 78 Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2022.102485 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Ageing is often believed to induce a movement towards the right of the political spectrum. Yet, empirical evidence remains inconclusive due to a dearth of longitudinal datasets covering multiple cohorts. Using eleven rotating panels of the Norwegian Election Studies (1977–2017) and exploiting first-derivative properties of the vote choice function, our empirical approach identifies non-linear life-cycle effects while controlling for cohort and period effects. Our main findings indicate that shifting towards the left is more likely among the young (under 40 years) whereas shifting towards the right occurs at an older age (over 55 years). Evaluating potential mechanisms, we find that individuals’ income, retirement, family status and political interest explain only a small part of the observed ageing effect. Life-cycle shifts in (some) policy preferences may play a bigger role. Finally, aging effects are similar across women and men, and only marginally stronger among groups with lower education and income levels.

• Fiva, Jon H. & King, Max-Emil Mohn (2022)
  Child Penalties in Politics

  [Report Research]. Munich Society for the Promotion of Economic Research

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  Women tend to experience substantial declines in their labor income after their first child is born, while men do not. Do such “child penalties” also exist in the political arena? Using extensive administrative data from Norway and an event-study methodology, we find that women drop out of local politics to a larger extent than men after their first child is born. Parenthood also seems to have a differential long-term effect on women and men's political careers, which may explain why women, especially women with children, are underrepresented at higher levels of the political hierarchy.

• Fiva, Jon H. & Nedregård, Oda (2022)
  How Does Party Discipline Affect Legislative Behavior? Evidence from Within-Session Variation in Lame Duck Status

  [Report Research]. Munich Society for the Promotion of Economic Research

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  How important are political parties in motivating and disciplining elected officials? Using a difference-in-discontinuity design, we study how shocks to incumbents’ re-election probabilities affect legislative behavior in a setting where parties fully control candidate selection. We find that within-session variation in lame-duck status has a strong negative effect on the probability of showing up in parliament to vote. We find, however, no clear evidence that lame-duck status affects the extent to which legislators deviate from the party line. Our findings align well with the citizen-candidate framework, where candidates have fixed ideological positions that do not vary based on electoral incentives.

• Stauskas, Ovidijus & Westerlund, Joakim (2022)
  Tests of Equal Forecasting Accuracy for Nested Models with Estimated CCE Factors

  Journal of business & economic statistics, 40(4) , s. 1745-1758.

• Heggedal, Tom-Reiel; Helland, Leif & Morton, Rebecca (2022)
  Can Paying Politicians Well Reduce Corruption? The Effects of Wages and Uncertainty on Electoral Competition

  Games and Economic Behavior, 135, s. 60-73. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2022.05.008 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  We investigate the effects of wages and uncertainty on political corruption as measured by rent-taking. First, our laboratory data show that contrary to standard theory, rent-taking is not independent of, but decreases with wages in the absence of popularity shocks. Second, the orthodox view that rent-taking is greater in the presence of popularity shocks, given wages, is not necessarily true. Third, we find that in the presence of popularity or ideological shocks rent-taking is increasing in the variance of the shock for given wages, and is decreasing in wages for a given variance of the shock. While our third finding is in line with the directional predictions of the Nash equilibria, the deviation from Nash is large when the variance of the popularity shock is high and wages are low. We show that the deviations can be explained using a Quantal Response Equilibrium approach and taking risk-attitudes into account.

• Kreiberg, David & Zhou, Xingwu (2022)
  A Faster Procedure for Estimating SEMs Applying Minimum Distance Estimators With a Fixed Weight Matrix

  Structural Equation Modeling, Doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/10705511.2022.2076093 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  This study presents a separable nonlinear least squares (SNLLS) implementation of the minimum distance (MD) estimator employing a fixed-weight matrix for estimating structural equation models (SEMs). In contrast to the standard implementation of the MD estimator, in which the complete set of parameters is estimated using nonlinear optimization, the SNLLS implementation allows a subset of parameters to be estimated using (linear) least squares (LS). The SNLLS implementation possesses a number of benefits, such as faster convergence, better performance in ill-conditioned estimation problems, and fewer required starting values. The present work demonstrates that SNLLS, when applied to SEM estimation problems, significantly reduces the estimation time. Reduced estimation time makes SNLLS particularly useful in applications involving some form of resampling, such as simulation and bootstrapping.

• Canova, Fabio & Ferroni, Filippo (2022)
  Mind the gap: Stylized dynamic facts and structural models

  American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 14(4) , s. 104-135. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20200054 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  We study what happens to identified shocks and to dynamic responses when the data generating process features q disturbances but q 1 < q variables are used in an empirical model. Identified shocks are linear combinations of current and past values of all structural disturbances and do not necessarily combine disturbances of the same type. Theory- based restrictions may be insufficient to obtain structural dynamics. We revisit the evidence regarding the transmission of house price and of uncertainty shocks. We provide suggestions on how to compare the dynamics of larger scale DSGEs models with smaller scale VARs. (JEL E12, E13, E23, E31, E43, R31)

• Galle, Simon; Rodriguez-Clare, Andres & Yi, Moises (2022)
  Slicing the Pie: Quantifying the Aggregate and Distributional Effects of Trade

  Review of Economic Studies, 90(1) , s. 331-375. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac020 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  We develop a multi-sector gravity model with heterogeneous workers to quantify the aggregate and group-level welfare effects of trade. The model generalizes the specific-factors intuition to a setting with labor reallocation, leads to a parsimonious formula for the group-level welfare effects from trade, and nests the aggregate results in Arkolakis et al. (2012). We estimate the model using the structural relationship between China-shock driven changes in manufacturing employment and average earnings across US groups defined as commuting zones. We find that the China shock increases average welfare but some groups experience losses as high as four times the average gain. However, adjusting for plausible measures of inequality aversion barely affects the welfare gains. We also develop and estimate an extension of the model that endogenizes labor force participation and unemployment, finding similar welfare effects from the China shock.

• Furlanetto, Francesco; Hagelund, Kåre, Hansen, Frank & Robstad, Ørjan (2022)
  Norges Bank Output Gap Estimates: Forecasting Properties, Reliability, Cyclical Sensitivity and Hysteresis

  Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 85(1) Doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12524 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  This paper documents the suite of models (SoMs) used by Norges Bank to estimate theoutput gap. The models are estimated using data on GDP, unemployment, inflation, wages,investment, house prices and credit. We evaluate the estimated output gap series in termsof its forecasting properties, its reliability and its cyclical sensitivity to various measuresof demand and supply shocks. A simple equally weighted average of estimates fromdifferent models features a better forecasting performance than each individual model. Inaddition, it helps predicting inflation in pseudo real time and exhibits limited variationswhen new data become available. The summary measure of potential output respondsstrongly and rapidly to permanent shocks and to narrative measures of technology shocksbut, although to a more limited extent, also to demand shocks, thus partly capturinghysteresis effects.

• Eraslan, Sercan & Schröder, Maximilian (2022)
  Nowcasting GDP with a pool of factor models and a fast estimation algorithm

  International Journal of Forecasting, 39(3) Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2022.07.009 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  We propose a novel mixed-frequency dynamic factor model with time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility for macroeconomic nowcasting and develop a fast estimation algorithm. This enables us to generate forecast densities based on a large space of factor models. We apply our framework to nowcast US GDP growth in real time. Our results reveal that stochastic volatility seems to improve the accuracy of point forecasts the most, compared to the constant-parameter factor model. These gains are most prominent during unstable periods such as the Covid-19 pandemic. Finally, we highlight indicators driving the US GDP growth forecasts and associated downside risks in real time.

• Geys, Benny & Mause, Karsten (2022)
  Politiker-Nebentätigkeiten als Einflusskanal für Lobbying

  Handbuch Lobbyismus, , s. 329-349. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-658-32324-0_11-1 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Die Nebentätigkeiten von Politikerinnen und Politikern sind in Deutschland, Großbritannien und anderen Ländern seit Jahren Gegenstand kontroverser Diskussionen in Politik und Öffentlichkeit. Dieser Beitrag gibt einen Überblick über den Stand der Forschung zu diesem möglichen Einflusskanal des Lobbyismus. Zunächst werden auf theoretisch-konzeptioneller Ebene die potenziellen Probleme der Nebentätigkeitspraxis erläutert. Anschließend werden empirische Studien vorgestellt, die die theoretischen Zusammenhänge in der Realität untersucht haben. Zudem diskutiert der Beitrag die Möglichkeiten und Grenzen der Regulierung von Nebentätigkeiten und Nebeneinkünften.

• Straume, Hans-Martin & Sudhakaran, Pratheesh O. (2022)
  Seafood markets in transition

  Aquaculture Economics & Management, 26(3) , s. 253-258. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/13657305.2022.2102091 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

• Grønneberg, Steffen; Foldnes, Njål & Marcoulides, Katerina (2022)
  covsim: An R Package for Simulating Non-Normal Data for Structural Equation Models Using Copulas

  Journal of Statistical Software, 102(3) , s. 1-45. Doi: https://doi.org/10.18637/jss.v102.i03 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  In factor analysis and structural equation modeling non-normal data simulation is traditionally performed by specifying univariate skewness and kurtosis together with the target covariance matrix. However, this leaves little control over the univariate distributions and the multivariate copula of the simulated vector. In this paper we explain how a more flexible simulation method called vine-to-anything (VITA) may be obtained from copula-based techniques, as implemented in a new R package, covsim. VITA is based on the concept of a regular vine, where bivariate copulas are coupled together into a full multivariate copula. We illustrate how to simulate continuous and ordinal data for covariance modeling, and how to use the new package discnorm to test for underlying normality in ordinal data. An introduction to copula and vine simulation is provided in the appendix.

• Schönhage, Nanna Lauritz & Geys, Benny (2022)
  Politicians and Scandals that Damage the Party Brand

  Legislative Studies Quarterly, 48(2) , s. 305-331. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/lsq.12377 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Scandals can cause serious damage to political parties’ brand name and reputation, which may taint all members of the party—even those not implicated in the scandal. In this article, we therefore explore how (uninvolved) politicians are likely to react to the eruption of such events. Building on a survey among UK local councilors (N = 2133), we first document the prevalence of distinct response strategies (such as distancing oneself from the scandal-hit party or redirecting attention to similar events in other parties). Then, building on a between-subject survey-experimental design, we assess the moderating roles of partisanship and scandal type. We show that a scandal in one’s own party reduces the probability of distancing oneself from the scandal-hit party (particularly among men). We also find that scandal type matters: pointing out similar scandals in other parties is less likely for sex scandals compared to financial scandals (particularly among women).

• Steigum, Erling & Straume, Hans-Martin (2022)
  Innføring i moderne makroøkonomi

  [Textbook]. Gyldendal Akademisk

• Cross, Jamie; Nguyen, Bao H. & Tran, Trung Duc (2022)
  The role of precautionary and speculative demand in the global market for crude oil

  Journal of applied econometrics, 37(5) , s. 882-895. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.2905 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Contemporary structural models of the global market for crude oil jointly specify precautionary and speculative demand shocks as a composite shock, named a storage demand shock. We resolve this identification problem and examine the effects of these distinct shocks, along with conventional demand and supply shocks, on the global price of crude oil. We find that uncertainty driven precautionary demand for crude oil is, on average, the primary driver of real price of oil fluctuations that have previously been associated with storage demand shocks. Historically, these shocks have had distinct effects on the real oil price dynamics since the 1970s.

• Capeleti, Paulo; Garcia, Marcio & Sanches, Fabio Miessi (2022)
  Countercyclical Credit Policies and Banking Concentration: Evidence from Brazil

  Journal of Banking & Finance, 143 Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2022.106589 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  We study the asymmetric effects of procyclical and countercyclical expansions of public banks’ credit on economic growth. Using a panel of Brazilian municipalities (2009–2014) and the same identification strat- egy as Greenstone et al. (2020), we show that the effect of public credit on the economic performance of Brazilian municipalities was more substantial in 2009, the only year in our sample in which the public credit policy was countercyclical. Interestingly, our estimates also suggest that the effect of credit poli- cies on growth is more salient when the banking market is more concentrated. Guided by the empirical results we built a theoretical model, which is calibrated with Brazilian data. Policy experiments based on the model demonstrate that countercyclical public credit policies are more effective than procyclical pub- lic credit policies. In line with the empirical results, the theoretical model also shows that public credit policies in general (either in booms or in recessions) are more efficient when credit markets are more concentrated. This result indicates that the structure of credit markets is crucial to explain the impact of public credit policies on growth.

• Costa, Francisco; Nunes, Leticia & Sanches, Fabio Miessi (2022)
  How to Attract Physicians to Underserved Areas? Policy Recommendations from a Structural Model

  Review of Economics and Statistics, 106(1) , s. 36-52. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01155 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  This paper exploits location choices of all generalist physicians graduated in Brazil between 2001 and 2013 to study policies aiming at increasing the supply of physicians in underserved areas. We set up and estimate a supply and demand model for physicians. We estimate physicians' locational preferences using a random coefficients discrete choice model. The demand has private establishments competing for physicians with private and public facilities around the country. Policy counterfactuals indicate that quotas in medical schools for students born in underserved areas and the opening of vacancies in medical schools in deprived areas are more cost-effective than financial incentives.

• Steigum, Erling (2022)
  Finanspolitikk, oljepenger og materiell velferd for folk flest

  [Professional Article]. Samfunnsøkonomen, (Nr. 5) , s. 11-15.

• Benedictow, Andreas; Larsen, Erling Røed, Frisell, Marte Marie & Iversen, Mathias (2022)
  Lokaliseringsgevinster for næringseiendom

  [Report Research]. Samfunnsøkonomisk analyse

• Benedictow, Andreas; Iversen, Mathias, Frisell, Marte Marie & Larsen, Erling Røed (2022)
  Prisdannelsen i det norske leiemarkedet for boliger

  [Report Research]. Samfunnsøkonomisk analyse

• Andersen, Jørgen Juel; Johannesen, Niels & Rijkers, Bob (2022)
  Elite Capture of Foreign Aid: Evidence from Offshore Bank Accounts

  Journal of Political Economy, 130(2) , s. 388-425. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1086/717455 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Do elites capture foreign aid? This paper documents that aid disbursements to highly aid-dependent countries coincide with sharp increases in bank deposits in offshore financial centers known for bank secrecy and private wealth management but not in other financial centers. The estimates are not confounded by contemporaneous shocks—such as civil conflicts, natural disasters, and financial crises—and are robust to instrumenting using predetermined aid commitments. The implied leakage rate is around 7.5% at the sample mean and tends to increase with the ratio of aid to GDP. The findings are consistent with aid capture in the most aid-dependent countries.

• Bruno, Lars Christian; Eloranta, Jari, Ojala, Jari & Pehkonen, Jaakko (2022)
  Road to unity? Nordic economic convergence in the long run

  Scandinavian Economic History Review, Doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/03585522.2022.2032318 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  This study examines Nordic economic convergence from the sixteenth to twentieth century respective of the economic leaders, in effect the UK before 1914 and USA thereafter. The paper uses a novel approach of combining the analysis of both GDP and wages. The examination of real GDP per capita suggests that there was a catch-up process in play, both with the economic leaders and among the Nordic states, from the early nineteenth century onwards. However, the examination of the adjusted silver wages suggests convergence among the Nordic economies by the end of the eighteenth century. Therefore, we argue, no single Nordic Model emerged from these development patterns, even though the Nordic states today do have striking similarities. Furthermore, they diverged from the West European growth path until the twentieth century, thus they were a part of the Little Divergence at Europe’s other peripheries. The world wars and other crises delayed the full impacts of the convergence process until the latter part of the twentieth century.

• Juodis, Artūras & Sarafidis, Vasilis (2022)
  A Linear Estimator for Factor-Augmented Fixed-T Panels With Endogenous Regressors

  Journal of business & economic statistics, 40(1) , s. 1-15. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.2020.1766469 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  A novel method-of-moments approach is proposed for the estimation of factor-augmented panel data models with endogenous regressors when T is fixed. The underlying methodology involves approximating the unobserved common factors using observed factor proxies. The resulting moment conditions are linear in the parameters. The proposed approach addresses several issues which arise with existing nonlinear estimators that are available in fixed T panels, such as local minima-related problems, a sensitivity to particular normalization schemes, and a potential lack of global identification. We apply our approach to a large panel of households and estimate the price elasticity of urban water demand. A simulation study confirms that our approach performs well in finite samples.

• Benedictow, Andreas; Iversen, Mathias, Frisell, Marte Marie & Larsen, Erling Røed (2022)
  Lokaliseringsgevinst ved å bygge i knutepunkter

  [Report Research]. Samfunnsøkonomisk analyse

• Boppart, Timo; Harmenberg, Karl, Krusell, Per & Olsson, Jonna (2022)
  Integrated epi-econ assessment of vaccination

  Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 140 Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2022.104308 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Using an integrated epi-econ model, we compute the value of vaccines for Covid-19, both under a planner’s solution and in competitive equilibrium. The specific model, developed in Boppart, Harmenberg, Hassler, Krusell, and Olsson (2020), factors in not just value-of-life aspects along with standard economic variables but also the value of leisure activities that rely on a social component. We find that the societal value of vaccination is large; we estimate that, translated into monetary terms, the value of vaccinating one young individual in the competitive equilibrium is $17,800. Externalities are large: less than half the societal value is internalized by individuals (assuming that they act purely in their self-interest). Finally, behavioral responses are important, with a substantial share of the value of vaccines being attributed to people enjoying more socially-oriented leisure when more people are vaccinated.

• Aastveit, Knut Are; Cross, Jamie & Dijk, Herman K. van (2022)
  Quantifying Time-Varying Forecast Uncertainty and Risk for the Real Price of Oil

  Journal of business & economic statistics, Doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.2022.2039159 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  We propose a novel and numerically efficient quantification approach to forecast uncertainty of the real price of oil using a combination of probabilistic individual model forecasts. Our combination method extends earlier approaches that have been applied to oil price forecasting, by allowing for sequentially updating of time-varying combination weights, estimation of time-varying forecast biases and facets of miscalibration of individual forecast densities and time-varying inter-dependencies among models. To illustrate the usefulness of the method, we present an extensive set of empirical results about time- varying forecast uncertainty and risk for the real price of oil over the period 1974–2018. We show that the combination approach systematically outperforms commonly used benchmark models and combination approaches, both in terms of point and density forecasts. The dynamic patterns of the estimated individual model weights are highly time-varying, reflecting a large time variation in the relative performance of the various individual models. The combination approach has built-in diagnostic information measures about forecast inaccuracy and/or model set incompleteness, which provide clear signals of model incompleteness during three crisis periods. To highlight that our approach also can be useful for policy analysis, we present a basic analysis of profit-loss and hedging against price risk.

• Iversen, Nina; Hem, Leif Egil & Olsson, Ulf H. (2022)
  Willingness to buy US products in three Southeast European countries: The effects of cognitive, affective and conative components of country-of-origin image

  JEEMS. Journal of East European Management Studies, 27(3) , s. 487-518. Doi: https://doi.org/10.5771/0949-6181-2022-3-487 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  The objective of this research is to present results from a survey conducted in Croatia, Serbia, and Bosnia-Herzegovina, addressing the negative influence of warfare by USA upon consumer behavior in the region. The results show that perceptions generated from USA's general country image influence consumers' intentions to buy American-made products. Furthermore, country "goodwill" and "bad-will" create cognitive and affective ambivalence, which concurrently promote and hamper consumers' willingness to buy foreign products. Facets of USA's general country image create mixed emotions, which influence approach and avoidance behavior towards US imports. USA's country image concurrently impacts productspecific perceptions, ethnocentric tendencies, animosity, and admiration/affinity, influencing the propensity to buy American-made products among consumers in Croatia, Serbia, and Bosnia-Herzegovina.

• Byrne, David P.; Imai, Susumu, Jain, Neelam & Sarafidis, Vasilis (2022)
  Instrument-free identification and estimation of differentiated products models using cost data

  Journal of Econometrics, 228(2) , s. 278-301. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2021.12.006 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  We propose a new methodology for identifying and estimating demand in differentiated products models when demand and cost data are available. The method deals with the endogeneity of prices to demand shocks and the endogeneity of outputs to cost shocks by using cost data rather than instruments. Further, we allow for unobserved market size. Using Monte Carlo experiments, we show that our method works well in contexts where commonly used instruments are invalid. We also apply our method to the estimation of deposit demand in the US banking industry.

• Bergholt, Drago; Furlanetto, Francesco & Maffei-Faccioli, Nicolo (2022)
  The decline of the labor share: new empirical evidence

  American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 14(3) , s. 163-198. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20190365 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  We use time series techniques to estimate the importance of four main explanations for the decline of the US labor income share: rising firm markups, falling bargaining power of workers, higher investment-specific technology growth, and more automated production processes. Identification is achieved with restrictions derived from a stylized model of structural change. Our results point to automation as the main driver of the labor share, although rising markups have played an important role in the last 20 years. We also find evidence of capital-labor complementarity, suggesting that capital deepening may have raised the labor share.

• Benedictow, Andreas; Anundsen, André Kallåk, Larsen, Erling Røed & Walbækken, Mikkel (2022)
  Bidding behavior in housing auctions

  [Report Research]. OsloMet - storbyuniversitetet

• Boug, Pål; Brasch, Thomas von, Cappelen, Ådne, Hammersland, Roger, Hungnes, Håvard, Kolsrud, Dag, Skretting, Julia Zhulanova, Strøm, Birger & Vigtel, Trond Christian (2022)
  Fiscal Policy, Macroeconomic Performance and Industry Structure in a Small Open Economy

  [Professional Article]. SSB - Discussion papers,

• Aastveit, Knut Are & Anundsen, André Kallåk (2022)
  Asymmetric effects of monetary policy in regional housing markets

  American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 14(4) , s. 499-529. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20190011 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  The responsiveness of house prices to monetary policy shocks depends on the nature of the shock—expansionary versus contractionary—and on local housing supply elasticities. These findings are established using a panel of 263 US metropolitan areas. Expansionary monetary policy shocks have a larger impact on house prices in supply inelastic areas. Contractionary shocks are orthogonal to housing supply elasticities. In supply elastic areas, contractionary shocks have a greater impact on house prices than expansionary shocks. The opposite holds true in supply inelastic areas. We attribute this to asymmetric housing supply adjustments.

• Grønneberg, Steffen & Foldnes, Njål (2022)
  Factor analyzing ordinal items requires substantive knowledge of response marginals

  Psychological methods, Doi: https://doi.org/10.1037/met0000495 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  In the social sciences, measurement scales often consist of ordinal items and are commonly analyzed using factor analysis. Either data are treated as continuous, or a discretization framework is imposed in order to take the ordinal scale properly into account. Correlational analysis is central in both approaches, and we review recent theory on correlations obtained from ordinal data. To ensure appropriate estimation, the item distributions prior to discretization should be (approximately) known, or the thresholds should be known to be equally spaced. We refer to such knowledge as substantive because it may not be extracted from the data, but must be rooted in expert knowledge about the data-generating process. An illustrative case is presented where absence of substantive knowledge of the item distributions inevitably leads the analyst to conclude that a truly two-dimensional case is perfectly one-dimensional. Additional studies probe the extent to which violation of the standard assumption of underlying normality leads to bias in correlations and factor models. As a remedy, we propose an adjusted polychoric estimator for ordinal factor analysis that takes substantive knowledge into account. Also, we demonstrate how to use the adjusted estimator in sensitivity analysis when the continuous item distributions are known only approximately.

• Rebnor, Robert; Straume, Hans-Martin & Vårdal, Erling (2022)
  Valutabruk i norsk utenrikshandel

  Samfunnsøkonomen, (3) , s. 54-65. - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Basert på opplysninger fra detaljerte tolldeklarasjoner fra norsk fastlandsøkonomi undersøker vi valutabruk i norsk utenrikshandel i perioden 2004–2018. Det er velkjent at dollaren har en dominerende posisjon som internasjonal valuta. Riktignok blir euroen mye brukt i handel med EU-land, men den er lite brukt utenfor Europa. Alle disse trekkene blir bekreftet i vår undersøkelse på norske data. Vi viser dessuten at bruk av hjemvalutaen (norske kroner) er hyppigere enn det som er vanlig for små land. Målt i transaksjonsmengde blir om lag 30 prosent av norsk eksport priset i norske kroner. For importens vedkommende er kroneprisingen enda høyere, dvs. om lag 40 prosent. Måler vi valuta-andeler basert på transaksjonsverdier endres bildet. Dollar blir nå den viktigste valutaen i norsk eksport, og kroneposisjonen svekkes. Naturlig nok varierer valutabruk med landområder. For eksempel er dollar hyppig brukt i handel med land som tidligere tilhørte Sovjetunionen, samt i Kina og i sørøstasiatiske land. Vi finner også at valutabruken varierer med varetypen det handles i. For norsk eksport estimeres en multinomisk logitmodell der betydningen av transaksjonsverdi bekreftes som svært viktig. En annen viktig forklaringsvariabel for norske eksportørers valutavalg er størrelsen på per capita-inntekten i det landet vi handler med.

• Oglend, Atle; Asche, Frank & Straume, Hans-Martin (2022)
  Estimating Pricing Rigidities in Bilateral Transactions Markets

  American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 104(1) , s. 209-227. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/ajae.12230 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Many price indices are constructed using bilateral transaction prices. This paper shows how the time series behavior of cross-sectional price moments can reveal useful information about pricing behavior in bilateral transactions markets. Inference is formalized in a microlevel price determination model that allows for rigid pricing at the level of individual buyer/seller transactions as well as asymmetries in bargaining power. The model is used to estimate pricing rigidities in Norwegian salmon export transactions. Results suggest a high rate of price revisions and an informative salmon price index. The moments suggest price revisions are conducted at fixed time intervals consistent with optimal price revisions under costly information and that price revisions are more likely when transaction prices are below the reference price in the market.

• Cui, Guowei; Norkutė, Milda, Sarafidis, Vasilis & Yamagata, Takashi (2022)
  Two-stage instrumental variable estimation of linear panel data models with interactive effects

  Econometrics Journal, 25(2) , s. 340-361. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1093/ectj/utab029 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  This paper analyses the instrumental variables (IV) approach put forward by Norkute et al. (2021), in the context of static linear panel data models with interactive effects present in the error term and the regressors. Instruments are obtained from transformed regressors, thereby it is not necessary to search for external instruments. We consider a two-stage IV (2SIV) and a mean-group IV (MGIV) estimator for homogeneous and heterogeneous slope models, respectively. The asymptotic analysis reveals that: (i) the NT−−−√-consistent 2SIV estimator is free from asymptotic bias that may arise due to the estimation error of the interactive effects, while (ii) existing estimators can suffer from asymptotic bias; (iii) the proposed 2SIV estimator is asymptotically as efficient as existing estimators that eliminate interactive effects jointly in the regressors and the error, while (iv) the relative efficiency of the estimators that eliminate interactive effects only in the error term is indeterminate. A Monte Carlo study confirms good approximation quality of our asymptotic results.

• Korotov, Sergey; Lund, Lars Fredrik Kirkebø & Vatne, Jon Eivind (2022)
  Tight bounds for the dihedral angle sums of a pyramid

  Applications of Mathematics, Doi: https://doi.org/10.21136/AM.2022.0010-22 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  We prove that eight dihedral angles in a pyramid with an arbitrary quadrilateral base always sum up to a number in the interval (3π, 5π). Moreover, for any number in (3π, 5π) there exists a pyramid whose dihedral angle sum is equal to this number, which means that the lower and upper bounds are tight. Furthermore, the improved (and tight) upper bound 4π is derived for the class of pyramids with parallelogramic bases. This includes pyramids with rectangular bases, often used in finite element mesh generation and analysis.

• Anundsen, André Kallåk; Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen, Larsen, Erling Røed & Thorsrud, Leif Anders (2022)
  Behavioral changes in the housing market before and after the Covid-19 lockdown

  Journal of Housing Economics, 59 Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhe.2022.101907 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  We exploit unique Norwegian day-by-day transaction and hour-by-hour bidding logs data in order to examine how market participants reacted to the spreading news of Covid-19 in early March 2020, the lockdown on March 12, and the re-opening on April 20. We observe changes on the date of the lockdown in transaction volumes, sell-prediction spreads, exploitative bidding behavior, and seller confidence. However, when we compare observed price developments with our estimated counter-factual price developments, we find that about half of the total fall in prices had already occurred before the lockdown was implemented. The reopening completely reverses the lockdown effect on prices. We show that voluntary behavioral changes, as well as lockdown and re-opening effects, are visible in various measures of social mobility, and that changes in daily news sentiment correlate with the abnormal price movements during this period.

• Harang, Fabian Andsem; Tindel, Samy & Wang, Xiaohua (2022)
  Volterra equations driven by rough signals 2: higher order expansions

  Stochastics and Dynamics, Doi: https://doi.org/10.1142/S0219493723500028 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

• Brekke, Kurt Richard; Dalen, Dag Morten & Straume, Odd Rune (2022)
  Competing with precision: incentives for developing predictive biomarker tests

  [Report Research]. Department of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics

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  We study the incentives of drug producers to develop predictive biomarkers, taking into account strategic interaction between drug producers and health plans. For this purpose we develop a two-dimensional spatial framework that allows us to capture the informational role of biomarkers and their effects on price competition and treatment choices. Although biomarkers increase the information available to prescribers, we identify an anticompetitive effect on the prices set by producers of therapeutically substitutable drugs. We also nd that better information about each patient s most therapeutically appropriate drug does not necessarily lead to more efficient treatment outcomes.

• Anderson, James L.; Asche, Frank, Garlock, Taryn, Hegde, Shraddha, Ropicki, Andrew & Straume, Hans-Martin (2022)
  Impacts of COVID-19 on U.S. Seafood Availability

  Journal of Agricultural & Food Industrial Organization, Doi: https://doi.org/10.1515/jafio-2022-0017 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Seafood is the food group with the highest share traded, and the U.S. is the world’s largest seafood importer, importing 79% of the seafood consumed. Hence, a study examining the impacts of the measures to contain COVID-19 on U.S. seafood imports will not only show how U.S. seafood availability has been affected, but will also give strong indications of how resiliently the global seafood markets have worked through the pandemic. We find that U.S. imports of seafood actually increased in 2020 and 2021, suggesting supply chains were able to adapt to potential disruptions. Moreover, for the 14 largest product forms imported to the U.S., there are no strong price movements. Given that there is a global market for most species groups, this adaption also suggests that the markets have worked quite well beyond the U.S. Hence, while there have undoubtedly been market shocks associated with the COVID-19 measures such as the reduction in demand from the restaurant sector and the increased sales in the retail sector, opportunities seem to balance out challenges, and the supply chains for seafood to the U.S. have been highly resilient.

• Borge, Lars-Erik; Krehic, Lana, Nyhus, Ole Henning, Rattsø, Jørn, Sørensen, Rune Jørgen & Leyen, Kaja von der (2022)
  Inntektssystemet for kommunene : Lokale skatteinntekter

  [Report Research]. Norges teknisk-naturvitenskapelige universitet

  Vis sammendrag

  Denne rapporten er skrevet på oppdrag fra Kommunal- og moderniseringsdepartementet som et underlag for Inntektssystemutvalgets vurderinger av lokal beskatning, beskatningsfrihet og utforming av skatteutjevningen ved beskatningsfrihet.

• Sørensen, Rune Jørgen; Iversen, Jon Marius Vaag, From, Johan & Bonesrønning, Hans (2022)
  Parenting styles and school performance: evidence from second-generation immigrants in Norway

  Scandinavian Journal of Educational Research, Doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/00313831.2022.2127882 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  We study the effects of parenting style on students’ school performance, assuming that immigrant parents’ child-rearing strategies derive from their country of origin. Following Doepke and Zilibotti [2017. Parenting with style: Altruism and paternalism in intergenerational preference transmission. Econometrica, 85(5), 1331–1371. https://do.org/10.3982/ ECTA14634], we measure patterns of parenting using data from the World Value and European Value Surveys. We combine these data with Norwegian register data on students’ test scores and exam results. Non-authoritarian parenting styles that encourage hard work (authoritativeness) or allow students to develop their independence and imagination (permissiveness) yield the better educational outcomes.

• Brekke, Kurt Richard; Dalen, Dag Morten & Straume, Odd Rune (2022)
  Paying for pharmaceuticals: uniform pricing versus two-part tariffs

  Journal of Health Economics, 83 Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2022.102613 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Two-part pricing (the Netflix model) has recently been proposed instead of uniform pricing for pharmaceuticals. Under two-part pricing the health plan pays a fixed fee for access to a drug at unit prices equal to marginal costs. Despite two-part pricing being socially efficient, we show that the health plan is worse off when the drug producer is a monopolist, as all surplus is extracted. This result is reversed with competition, as two-part pricing yields higher patient utility and lower drug costs for the health plan. However, if we allow for exclusive contracts, uniform pricing is preferred by the health plan. The choice of payment scheme is also shown to influence on the incentives to spend resources on drastic innovations relative to incremental, me-too innovations.

• Asche, Frank; Straume, Hans-Martin, Garlock, Taryn M., Johansen, Ulf, Kvamsdal, Sturla Furunes, Nygård, Rune, Pincinato, Ruth Beatriz & Tveterås, Ragnar (2022)
  Challenges and opportunities: Impacts of COVID-19 on Norwegian seafood exports

  Aquatic Living Resources, 35(15) , s. 1-11. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1051/alr/2022017 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  A rapidly growing literature shows that COVID-19 and the measures to contain the spread of the virus can have significant market impacts for seafood. These can be interruptions of production, or reductions in demand directly or indirectly due to supply chain challenges. In this paper we investigate the potential impacts of COVID-19 on seafood exports from Norway, the world’s second largest seafood exporter, using highly detailed data from 2016 through May 2021. These data allow us to assess upstream impacts in the seafood supply chain close to the producer level in aggregate and by main sector, impacts on the largest products, and the extent to which export firm structure and export markets served have changed. We find very few impacts in aggregate as well as for individual products, suggesting that the markets and supply chains used by Norwegian seafood exports were sufficiently robust and flexible to accommodate the shocks created by COVID-19. Given Norway’s size as a seafood exporter, the impact of COVID-19 has likely been moderate upstreams for a number of seafood sectors around the world, especially those in wealthy nations, with opportunities balancing out challenges, and that the supply chains have been highly resilient.

• Straume, Hans-Martin; Asche, Frank, Oglend, Atle, Abrahamsen, Eirik Bjorheim, Birkenbach, Anna M., Langguth, Johannes, Lanquepin, Guillaume & Roll, Kristin Helen (2022)
  Impacts of Covid-19 on Norwegian salmon exports: A firm-level analysis

  Aquaculture, 561 Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aquaculture.2022.738678 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  A rapidly growing literature investigates how the recent Covid-19 pandemic has affected international seafood trade along multiple dimensions, creating opportunities as well as challenges. This suggests that many of the impacts of the Covid measures are subtle and require disaggregated data to allow the impacts in different supply chains to be teased out. In aggregate, Norwegian salmon exports have not been significantly impacted by Covid-related measures. Using firm-level data to all export destinations to examine the effects of lockdowns in different destination countries in 2020, we show that the Covid-related lockdown measures significantly impacted trade patterns for four product forms of salmon. The results also illustrate how the Covid measures create opportunities, as increased stringency of the measures increased trade for two of the product forms. We also find significant differences among firms' responses, with large firms with larger trade networks reacting more strongly to the Covid measures. The limited overall impacts and the significant dynamics at the firm level clearly show the resiliency of the salmon supply chains.

• Holden, Steinar; Dunlop, Oona Borghild, Vik, Styrk Fjærtoft, Hjort, Ingrid, Markussen, Simen, Melberg, Hans Olav, Spurkland, Anne, Brasch, Thomas Rolf Lydersen Lystad von, Hara, Karen Walseth, Løken, Katrine Vellesen, Hungnes, Håvard, Rø, Gunnar Øyvind Isaksson, Sælensminde, Kjartan, Kvisgaard, Vera Haugen & Nordstrand, Karine (2022)
  Holden-IV (covid-19) Hovedrapport: Samfunnsøkonomiske vurderinger av smitteverntiltak

  [Report Research]. Helse- og omsorgsdepartementet

• Asche, Frank; Yang, Bixuan, Gephart, Jessica A., Smith, Martin D., Anderson, James L., Camp, Edward V., Garlock, Taryn M., Love, David C., Oglend, Atle & Straume, Hans-Martin (2022)
  China’s seafood imports – not for domestic consumption? : an estimated 74.9% of China's seafood imports are reexported

  Science, 375(6579) , s. 386-388. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abl4756 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

• Galeati, Lucio; Harang, Fabian Andsem & Mayorcas, Avi (2022)
  Distribution dependent SDEs driven by additive fractional Brownian motion

  Probability theory and related fields, , s. 1-59. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00440-022-01145-w - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

• Ile, Runar (2021)
  Deformation theory of Cohen-Macaulay approximation

  Journal of Algebra, 568, s. 437-466. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jalgebra.2020.09.039 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  In [22] we established axiomatic parametrised Cohen-Macaulay approximation which in particular was applied to pairs consisting of a finite type flat family of Cohen-Macaulay rings and modules. In this sequel we study the induced maps of deformation functors and deduce properties like smoothness and injectivity under general, mainly cohomological conditions on the module.

• Bruno, Lars Christian (2021)
  Natural resources and economic growth: comparing nineteenth century Scandinavia and twentieth century Southeast Asia

  Scandinavian Economic History Review, 71(1) Doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/03585522.2021.1984298 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  This paper aims to bridge part of the gap that exists between the resource curse literature and economic historical research on natural resources by analysing four resource-abundant countries. The study proposes that at the sectoral level, the determinants of growth in resource-based industries were mostly similar in the late 19th and late 20th centuries. However, we also argue that the relative contribution of natural resources to economic growth might have been declining during the late twentieth century. The evidence comes from an analysis of the forestry sector in Finland and Sweden between 1860 and 1910 and the palm oil industry in Indonesia and Malaysia between 1970 and 2016.

• Fiva, Jon H.; Geys, Benny, Heggedal, Tom-Reiel & Sørensen, Rune Jørgen (2021)
  Political Alignment and Bureaucratic Pay

  Journal of Public Administration Research and Theory (JPART), 31(3) , s. 596-615. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1093/jopart/muaa053 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Building on agency-theoretical perspectives of public bureaucracies, we argue that politician–bureaucrat preference alignment can have important implications for bureaucrats’ pay. We study such private gains to bureaucrats from their political alignment with elected politicians using detailed data on all 1,632 top administrators active in all Norwegian municipalities over a period of 25 years (1991–2015). Whereas existing studies generally rely on proxies for politician–bureaucrat political alignment, a rare feature of our data allows measuring it directly since 27% of top bureaucrats ran for political office. We focus explicitly on individuals at the very top of the administrative hierarchy and are able to separate the intensive margin (i.e., wage increases) from any additional effects at the extensive margin (i.e., new appointments). Using close elections for inference in a regression discontinuity analysis, we find that politician–bureaucrat alignment significantly increases top bureaucrats’ wage even in the Norwegian civil service system. This has important implications also from a theoretical perspective. Our results indeed go against predictions from models with policymotivated bureaucrats, but are consistent with politically aligned principal–agent matches being more productive.

• Sucarrat, Genaro (2021)
  garchx: Flexible and Robust GARCH-X Modeling

  The R Journal, 13(1) , s. 276-291. Doi: https://doi.org/10.32614/rj-2021-057 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  The garchx package provides a user-friendly, fast, flexible, and robust framework for the estimation and inference of GARCH(p, q, r)-X models, where p is the ARCH order, q is the GARCH order, r is the asymmetry or leverage order, and ’X’ indicates that covariates can be included. Quasi Maximum Likelihood (QML) methods ensure estimates are consistent and standard errors valid, even when the standardized innovations are non-normal or dependent, or both. Zero-coefficient restrictions by omission enable parsimonious specifications, and functions to facilitate the non-standard inference associated with zero-restrictions in the null-hypothesis are provided. Finally, in the formal comparisons of precision and speed, the garchx package performs well relative to other prominent GARCH-packages on CRAN.

• Foldnes, Njål & Grønneberg, Steffen (2021)
  The sensitivity of structural equation modeling with ordinal data to underlying non-normality and observed distributional forms

  Psychological methods, 27(4) , s. 541-567. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1037/met0000385 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Structural equation modeling (SEM) of ordinal data is often performed using normal theory maximum likelihood estimation based on the Pearson correlation (cont-ML) or using least squares principles based on the polychoric correlation matrix (cat-LS). While cont-ML ignores the categorical nature of the data, cat-LS assumes underlying multivariate normality. Theoretical results are provided on the validity of treating ordinal data as continuous when the number of categories increases, leading to an adjustment to cont-ML (cont-ML-adj). Previous simulation studies have concluded that cat-LS outperforms cont-ML, and that it is quite robust to violations of underlying normality. However, this conclusion was based on a data simulation methodology equivalent to discretizing exactly normal data. The present study employs a new simulation method for ordinal data to reinvestigate whether ordinal SEM is robust to underlying non-normality. In contrast to previous studies, we include a large set of ordinal distributions, and our results indicate that ordinal SEM estimation and inference is highly sensitive to the interaction between underlying non-normality and the ordinal observed distributions. Our results show that cont-ML-adj consistently outperforms cont-ML, and that cat-LS is less biased than cont-ML-adj. The sensitivity of cat-LS to violation of underlying normality necessitates the need for a test of underlying normality. A bootstrap test is found to reliably detect underlying non-normality.

• Larsen, Erling Røed (2021)
  Dypdykk i inflasjon, Formue 1/2021, s 38 – 45.

  [Popular Science Article]. Formue,

• Sucarrat, Genaro (2021)
  Identification of volatility proxies as expectations of squared financial returns

  International Journal of Forecasting, 37(4) Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2021.03.008 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Volatility proxies like realised volatility (RV) are extensively used to assess the forecasts of squared financial returns produced by volatility models. But are volatility proxies identified as expectations of the squared return? If not, then the results of these comparisons can be misleading, even if the proxy is unbiased. Here, a tripartite distinction is introduced between strong, semi-strong, and weak identification of a volatility proxy as an expectation of the squared return. The definition implies that semi-strong and weak identification can be studied and corrected for via a multiplicative transformation. Well-known tests can be used to check for identification and bias, and Monte Carlo simulations show that they are well sized and powerful—even in fairly small samples. As an illustration, 12 volatility proxies used in three seminal studies are revisited. Half of the proxies do not satisfy either semi-strong or weak identification, but their corrected transformations do. It is then shown how correcting for identification can change the rankings of volatility forecasts.

• Lyshol, Arne Fredrik; Nenov, Plamen & Wevelstad, Thea (2021)
  Duration Dependence and Labor Market Experience

  Labour, 35 Doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/labr.12188 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  We study whether unemployment duration dependence—the negative effect of a current unemployment spell on an individual's employment probability—varies with labor market experience. Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth and the Current Population Survey, we show that although there is negative duration dependence for experienced workers, it is mostly absent for new entrants to the labor force. This difference suggests that structural forces in addition to ex ante heterogeneity in job-finding probabilities and dynamic selection may drive unemployment duration dependence. Our findings are robust to the econometric model used and to a number of demographic controls and time trends, as well as individual fixed effects. We also discuss whether a number of theories of duration dependence can explain our empirical findings.

• Gola, Pawel (2021)
  Supply and Demand in a Two-Sector Matching Model

  Journal of Political Economy, 129(3) Doi: https://doi.org/10.1086/712507 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  I examine the distributional consequences of technological change in a framework that nests Roy's (1951) and Becker's (1973) classical models: Workers self-select into two sectors and then match with heterogeneous firms within each sector. In this model, technological change can be decomposed into changes in (i) the degree to which sectors covet the same skill sets and (ii) the extent to which output varies with skill in each sector. By deriving monotone comparative statics results for each of these two types of changes, I am able to provide a comprehensive account of the distributional consequences of technological change.

• Geys, Benny & Sørensen, Rune Jørgen (2021)
  Public Sector Employment and Voter Turnout

  American Political Science Review, 116(1) , s. 367-373. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1017/S000305542100099X - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Does working in the public rather than the private sector have a causal effect on electoral participation? Extant evidence using cross-sectional survey data remains unpersuasive due to data limitations and concerns posed by preference-based job selection. We address these challenges using population-wide individual-level register data on voter turnout covering four Norwegian local and national elections between 2013 and 2019. We identify causal effects by tracking the same individuals over time during (a) shifts between private- and public-sector employment, (b) relocations between municipalities, and (c) shifts into retirement. We find that local public-sector employees display 1–3 percentage points higher voter turnout compared with private-sector employees. These effects arise particularly when working in their residential municipality, but they largely dissipate upon retirement.

• Canova, Fabio & Matthes, Christian (2021)
  Dealing with misspecification in structural macroeconometric models

  Quantitative Economics, 12(2) , s. 313-350. Doi: https://doi.org/10.3982/QE1413 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  We consider a set of potentially misspecified structural models, geometrically combine their likelihood functions, and estimate the parameters using composite methods. In a Monte Carlo study, composite estimators dominate likelihood‐based estimators in mean squared error and composite models are superior to individual models in the Kullback–Leibler sense. We describe Bayesian quasi‐posterior computations and compare our approach to Bayesian model averaging, finite mixture, and robust control procedures. We robustify inference using the composite posterior distribution of the parameters and the pool of models. We provide estimates of the marginal propensity to consume and evaluate the role of technology shocks for output fluctuations.

• Larsen, Vegard Høghaug & Thorsrud, Leif Anders (2021)
  Asset returns, news topics, and media effects

  The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 124(3) , s. 838-868. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/sjoe.12469 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  We decompose the textual data in a daily Norwegian business newspaper into news topics and investigate their predictive and causal role for asset prices. Our findings suggest that news published through the mass media has significant, persistent, and potentially economically profitable predictive power for returns. Moreover, during an exogenous media strike returns for firms particularly exposed to our news measure experience a substantial fall relative to the control group. Together these findings lend support for a view where the media act as “information intermediaries” between agents and the state of the world, and disseminate fundamental information to investors.

• Silkoset, Ragnhild; Olsson, Ulf H. & Gripsrud, Geir (2021)
  Metode, dataanalyse og innsikt

  Cappelen Damm Akademisk

• Aastveit, Knut Are; Furlanetto, Francesco & Loria, Francesca (2021)
  Has the Fed Responded to House and Stock Prices? A Time-Varying Analysis

  Review of Economics and Statistics, Doi: https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01120 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  We investigate whether the Federal Reserve has responded systematically to house and stock prices and whether this response has changed over time using a Bayesian structural VAR model with time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility. To recover the systematic component of monetary policy, we interpret the interest rate equation in the VAR as an extended monetary policy rule responding to ination, the output gap, house prices and stock prices. Our results indicate that the systematic component of monetary policy in the U.S. responded to real stock price growth significantly but episodically, mainly around recessions and periods of financial instability, and took real house price growth into account only in the years preceding the Great Recession. Around half of the estimated response captures the predictor role of asset prices for future ination and real economic activity, while the remaining component reects a direct response to stock prices and house prices.

• Aastveit, Knut Are; Bjørnland, Hilde C & Cross, Jamie (2021)
  INFLATION EXPECTATIONS AND THE PASS-THROUGH OF OIL PRICES

  Review of Economics and Statistics, 105(3) , s. 733-743. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01073 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Inflation expectations and the associated pass-through of oil price shocks depend on demand and supply conditions underlying the global oil market. We establish this result using a structural VAR model of the global oil market that jointly identifies transmissions of oil demand and supply shocks through real oil prices to both expected and actual inflation. We demonstrate that economic activity shocks have a significantly longer lasting effect on inflation expectations and actual inflation than other types of real oil price shocks, and resolve disagreements around the role of oil prices in explaining the missing deflation puzzle of the Great Recession.

• Ellen, Saskia ter; Larsen, Vegard Høghaug & Thorsrud, Leif Anders (2021)
  Narrative Monetary Policy Surprises and the Media

  Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 54(5) , s. 1525-1549. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12868 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  We propose a simple method to quantify narratives from textual data, and identify what we label “narrative monetary policy surprises” as the difference in narrative focus in central bank communication accompanying interest rate meetings and economic media coverage prior to those meetings. Identifying narrative surprises in this way using Norwegian data provides surprise measures that are uncorrelated with conventional monetary policy surprises, and, in contrast to such surprises, have a significant effect on subsequent media coverage. In turn, narrative monetary policy surprises lead to macroeconomic responses similar to what recent monetary policy literature associates with the information component of monetary policy communication, highlighting media’s role as information intermediaries.

• Francq, Christian & Sucarrat, Genaro (2021)
  Volatility Estimation When the Zero-Process is Nonstationary

  Journal of business & economic statistics, 41(1) Doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.2021.1999821 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Financial returns are frequently nonstationary due to the nonstationary distribution of zeros. In daily stock returns, for example, the nonstationarity can be due to an upwards trend in liquidity over time, which may lead to a downwards trend in the zero-probability. In intraday returns, the zero-probability may be periodic: It is lower in periods where the opening hours of the main financial centers overlap, and higher otherwise. A nonstationary zero-process invalidates standard estimators of volatility models, since they rely on the assumption that returns are strictly stationary. We propose a GARCH model that accommodates a nonstationary zero-process, derive a zero-adjusted QMLE for the parameters of the model, and prove its consistency and asymptotic normality under mild assumptions. The volatility specification in our model can contain higher order ARCH and GARCH terms, and past zero-indicators as covariates. Simulations verify the asymptotic properties in finite samples, and show that the standard estimator is biased. An empirical study of daily and intradaily returns illustrate our results. They show how a nonstationary zero-process induces time-varying parameters in the conditional variance representation, and that the distribution of zero returns can have a strong impact on volatility predictions.

• Bruno, Lars Christian & Steen, Riana (2021)
  Norwegian oil market concentration and its effects on the oil service companies 1993–2013

  Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/sjpe.12304 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  This paper explores the effect of market concentration of the Norwegian oil production sector (NPS) on Norway's second- largest industry, the oilfield services companies (OFS). To capture this effect, we use the system generalized method of moments approach (GMM) to estimate an em-pirical model, spanning the period 1993– 2013. The findings indicate that increased market concentration is consistent with lower profitability of the oilfield services companies, as the bargaining power of oil companies relative to service companies increases. Increased knowledge about this effect could contribute to improving strategies for the further de-velopment of these industries by stakeholders

• Sallis, James E; Gripsrud, Geir, Olsson, Ulf H. & Silkoset, Ragnhild (2021)
  Research Methods and Data Analysis for Business Decisions A Primer Using SPSS

  Springer

• Schönhage, Nanna Lauritz & Geys, Benny (2021)
  Partisan bias in politicians’ perception of scandals

  Party Politics, 28(4) , s. 691-701. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1177/1354068821998024 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Do politicians perceive scandals differently when they implicate members of their own party rather than another party? We address this question using a between-subject survey experiment, whereby we randomly assign UK local councillors (N - 2133) to vignettes describing a major national-level scandal in their own party versus another party. Our results show that local politicians perceive a significantly larger impact of this national scandal on the national party image when it concerns their own party (relative to another party). When evaluating the same scandal’s impact on the local party image, no similar effect is observed. This suggests that local politicians tone down the local impact of a national scandal more when thinking about their own party. We suggest this derives from a form of motivated reasoning whereby politicians selectively focus on information allowing a more negative view of direct electoral opponents. These findings arise independent of the type of scandal under consideration

• Ellingsen, Jon; Larsen, Vegard Høghaug & Thorsrud, Leif Anders (2021)
  News media versus FRED-MD for macroeconomic forecasting

  Journal of applied econometrics, 37(1) , s. 63-81. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.2859 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Using a unique dataset of 22.5 million news articles from the Dow Jones Newswires Archive, we perform an in depth real-time out-of-sample forecasting comparison study with one of the most widely used data sets in the newer forecasting literature, namely the FRED-MD dataset. Focusing on US GDP, consumption and investment growth, our results suggest that the news data contains information not captured by the hard economic indicators, and that the news-based data are particularly informative for forecasting consumption developments.

• Canova, Fabio & Matthes, Christian (2021)
  A composite likelihood approach for dynamic structural models

  Economic Journal, 131(638) , s. 2447-2477. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueab004 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  We explain how to use the composite likelihood function to ameliorate estimation, computational and inferential problems in dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models. We combine the information present in different models or data sets to estimate the parameters common across models. We provide intuition for why the methodology works and alternative interpretations of the estimators we construct and of the statistics we employ. We present a number of situations where the methodology has the potential to resolve well-known problems and to provide a justification for existing practices that pool different estimates. In each case, we provide an example to illustrate how the approach works and its properties in practice.

• Hansen, Bjørn Gunnar & Olsson, Ulf H. (2021)
  Specification Search in Structural Equation Modeling (SEM): How Gradient Component-wise Boosting can Contribute

  Structural Equation Modeling, 29(1) Doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/10705511.2021.1935263 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Although structural equation model (SEM) is a powerful and widely applied tool particularly in social sciences, few studies have explored how SEM and statistical learning methods can be combined. The purpose of this paper is to explore how gradient component-wise boosting (GCB) can contribute to item selection. We ran 200 regressions with different farmer psychological variables collected to explain variation in an animal welfare indicator (AWI). The most frequently selected variables from the regressions were selected to build a SEM to explain variation in the AWI. The results show that boosting selects relevant items for a SEM.

• Alstadheim, Ragna; Bjørnland, Hilde C & Maih, Junior (2021)
  Do central banks respond to exchange rate movements? A Markov-switching structural investigation of commodity exporters and importers

  Energy Economics, 96 Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105138 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  We analyse whether central banks in small open commodity exporting and importing countries respond to exchange rate movements, taking into consideration that there may be structural changes in parameters and volatility. Using a Markov Switching Rational Expectations framework, we estimate the model for Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Norway, Sweden and the UK. We find that the size of policy responses, and the volatility of structural shocks, have not stayed constant over the estimation sample. Furthermore, monetary policy has responded strongly to the exchange rate for many commodity exporters, most notablyNorway. This has had a stabilizing effect on the exchange rate. In particular, although the terms of trade are highly volatile among commodity exporters, the exchange rate has about the same volatility across all importers and exporters in the recent period.

• Kripfganz, Sebastian & Sarafidis, Vasilis (2021)
  Instrumental-variable estimation of large-T panel-data models with common factors

  The Stata Journal, 21(3) , s. 1-28. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1177/1536867X211045558 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  In this article, we introduce the xtivdfreg command, which implements a general instrumental-variables (IV) approach for fitting panel-data models with many time-series observations, T, and unobserved common factors or interactive effects, as developed by Norkute et al. (2021, Journal of Econometrics 220: 416–446) and Cui et al. (2020a, ISER Discussion Paper 1101). The underlying idea of this approach is to project out the common factors from exogenous covariates using principal-components analysis and to run IV regression in both of two stages, using defactored covariates as instruments. The resulting two-stage IV estimator is valid for models with homogeneous or heterogeneous slope coefficients and has several advantages relative to existing popular approaches. In addition, the xtivdfreg command extends the two-stage IV approach in two major ways. First, the algorithm accommodates estimation of unbalanced panels. Second, the algorithm permits a flexible specification of instruments. We show that when one imposes zero factors, the xtivdfreg command can replicate the results of the popular Stata ivregress command. Notably, unlike ivregress, xtivdfreg permits estimation of the two-way error-components paneldata model with heterogeneous slope coefficients.

• Sarafidis, Vasilis & Wansbeek, Tom (2021)
  Celebrating 40 years of panel data analysis: Past, present and future

  Journal of Econometrics, 220(2) , s. 215-226. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2020.06.001 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  The present special issue features a collection of papers presented at the 2017 International Panel Data Conference, hosted by the University of Macedonia in Thessaloniki, Greece. The conference marked the 40th anniversary of the inaugural International Panel Data Conference, which was held in 1977 at INSEE in Paris, under the auspices of the French National Centre for Scientific Research. As a collection, the papers appearing in this special issue of the Journal of Econometrics continue to advance the analysis of panel data, and paint a state-of-the-art picture of the field.

• Juodis, Artūras & Sarafidis, Vasilis (2021)
  An incidental parameters free inference approach for panels with common shocks

  Journal of Econometrics, Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2021.03.011 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  This paper develops a novel Method of Moments approach for panel data models withendogenous regressors and unobserved common factors. The proposed approach doesnot require estimating explicitly a large number of parameters in either time-series orcross-sectional dimension,T and N respectively. Hence, it is free from the incidental parameter problem. In particular, the proposed approach does not suffer from ‘‘Nickellbias" of order O(T−1), nor from bias terms that are of order O(N−1). Therefore, it can operate under substantially weaker restrictions compared to existing largeT procedures.Two alternative GMM estimators are analyzed; one makes use of a fixed number of‘‘averaged estimating equations" à la Anderson and Hsiao (1982), whereas the other onemakes use of ‘‘stacked estimating equations", the total number of which increases at therate of O(T). It is demonstrated that both estimators are consistent and asymptotically mixed-normal as N → ∞ for any value of T. Low-level conditions that ensure local and global identification in this setup are examined using several example

• Chodorow-Reich, Gabriel; Nenov, Plamen & Simsek, Alp (2021)
  Stock Market Wealth and the Real Economy: A Local Labor Market Approach

  The American Economic Review, 111(5) , s. 1613-1657. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1257/AER.20200208 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  We provide evidence of the stock market consumption wealth effect by using a local labor market analysis. An increase in local stock wealth driven by aggregate stock prices increases local employment and payroll in nontradable industries and in total, with no effect on employment in tradable industries. In a model of geographic heterogeneity in stock wealth, these responses imply an MPC of 3.2 cents per year and that a 20 percent increase in stock valuations, unless countered by monetary policy, increases the aggregate labor bill by at least 1.7 percent and aggregate hours by at least 0.7 percent two years after the shock.

• Achbari, Wahideh; Geys, Benny & Doosje, Bert Jan (2021)
  Comparing the effect of cross-group friendship on generalized trust to its effect on prejudice: The mediating role of threat perceptions and negative affect

  PLOS ONE, 16(2) Doi: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0245983 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Intergroup relations theory posits that cross-group friendship reduces threat perceptions and negative emotions about outgroups. This has been argued to mitigate the negative effects of ethnic diversity on generalized trust. Yet, direct tests of this friendship-trust relation, especially including perceptions of threat and negative affect as mediators, have remained rare at the individual level. In this article, we bridge this research gap using representative data from eight European countries (Group-Focused Enmity). We employ structural equation modelling (SEM) to model mediated paths of cross-group friendship on generalized trust via perceptions of threat and negative affect. We find that both the total effect as well as the (mediated) total indirect effect of cross-group friendship on generalized trust are weak when compared with similar paths estimated for prejudice.

• Juodis, Artūras; Karavias, Yiannis & Sarafidis, Vasilis (2021)
  A homogeneous approach to testing for Granger non-causality in heterogeneous panels

  Empirical Economics, 60, s. 93-112. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-020-01970-9 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  This paper develops a new method for testing for Granger non-causality in panel data models with large cross-sectional (N) and time series (T) dimensions. The method is valid in models with homogeneous or heterogeneous coefficients. The novelty of the proposed approach lies in the fact that under the null hypothesis, the Granger-causation parameters are all equal to zero, and thus they are homogeneous. Therefore, we put forward a pooled least-squares (fixed effects type) estimator for these parameters only. Pooling over cross sections guarantees that the estimator has a NT−−−√ convergence rate. In order to account for the well-known “Nickell bias”, the approach makes use of the well-known Split Panel Jackknife method. Subsequently, a Wald test is proposed, which is based on the bias-corrected estimator. Finite-sample evidence shows that the resulting approach performs well in a variety of settings and outperforms existing procedures. Using a panel data set of 350 U.S. banks observed during 56 quarters, we test for Granger non-causality between banks’ profitability and cost efficiency.

• Lu, Jingfeng; Lu, Zongwei & Riis, Christian (2021)
  Perfect bidder collusion through bribe and request

  Games and Economic Behavior, 129, s. 1-14. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2021.05.001 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  We study collusion in a second-price auction with two bidders in a dynamic environment. One bidder can make a take-it-or-leave-it collusion proposal, which consists of both an offer and a request of bribes, to the opponent. We show that there always exists a robust equilibrium in which the collusion success probability is one. In the equilibrium, for each type of initiator the expected payoff is generally higher than the counterpart in any robust equilibria of the single-option model (Esö and Schummer (2004)) and any other separating equilibria in our model.

• Iachan, Felipe S.; Nenov, Plamen & Simsek, Alp (2021)
  The Choice Channel of Financial Innovation

  American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 13(2) , s. 333-372. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20180429 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Financial innovation in recent decades has expanded portfolio choice. We investigate how greater choice affects investors' savings and asset returns. We establish a choice channel by which greater portfolio choice increases investors' savings—by enabling them to earn the aggregate risk premium or take speculative positions. In equilibrium, portfolio customization (access to risky assets beyond the market portfolio) reduces the risk-free rate. Participation (access to the market portfolio) reduces the risk premium but typically increases the risk-free rate. Empirically, stock market participants in the United States save more than nonparticipants and have increasingly dispersed portfolio returns, consistent with the choice channel.

• Cox, Gary W.; Fiva, Jon H., Smith, Daniel M. & Sørensen, Rune Jørgen (2021)
  Moral hazard in electoral teams: List rank and campaign effort

  Journal of Public Economics, 200 Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2021.104457 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  How do parties motivate candidates to exert effort in closed-list elections, where seat outcomes are uncertain only for candidates in marginal list positions? We argue that parties can solve this moral hazard problem by committing ex ante to allocate higher offices in government, such as cabinet portfolios, monotonically with list rank. Under this schedule of compensation, parties have incentives to rank candidates in order of quality (under some conditions) and candidates have incentives to increase the volume and geo-diversity of their campaign efforts as their rank improves. Using detailed data on Norwegian candidates and their use of mass and social media in recent elections, we confirm that (1) candidate quality increases with list rank, and (2) candidates in safer ranks shift from intra-district to extra-district and national media exposure—a composition of effort that can increase their party’s chance of entering government, and thus their own potential share of the spoils.

• Cross, Jamie; Hou, Chenghan & Trinh, Kelly (2021)
  Returns, Volatility and the Cryptocurrency Bubble of 2017-18

  Economic Modelling, 104 Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2021.105643 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Research on cryptocurrencies has focused on price and volatility formation in isolation, however knowledge about their interdependence is important for risk management and asset allocation. We investigate the existence and nature of such a relationship in four commonly traded cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin and Ripple, during the cryptocurrency bubble of 2017–18. Using a generalized asset pricing model, we find evidence of a risk premium effect in Litecoin and Ripple during the boom of 2017, and that adverse news effects were an important driver of the cryptocurrency crash of 2018 in all four cryptocurrencies. In an out-of-sample forecasting exercise, we find that allowing for stochastic volatility and a heavy tailed distribution provides more accurate return and volatility forecasts compared to a random walk benchmark. This suggests that cryptocurrency markets were not weak-form efficient during this period.

• Helland, Leif; Iachan, Felipe S., Juelsrud, Ragnar Enger & Nenov, Plamen (2021)
  Information Quality and Regime Change: Evidence from the Lab

  Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 191, s. 538-554. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2021.08.036 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  We experimentally test the effects of information quality in a global game of regime change. The game features a payoff structure such that more dispersed private information induces agents to attack more often and reduces regime stability in the Bayesian Nash Equilibrium. We show that subjects in the lab do not play as predicted by equilibrium theory. Instead, more dispersed information makes subjects more cautious, increasing regime stability. We show that this finding is consistent with a modified global game model in which agents engage in level- thinking. In the level- model, information quality affects agents’ actions through a novel channel, that enables a strategic attenuation effect. As information quality worsens, strategic complementarities between different level- types weaken, generating a force that is capable of reversing the comparative statics from the equilibrium model.

• Boeri, Tito; Garibaldi, Pietro & Moen, Espen Rasmus (2021)
  In medio stat victus Labor Demand Effects of an Increase in the Retirement Age

  Journal of Population Economics, 35, s. 519-556. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-021-00871-0 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  After falling for four decades, statutory retirement ages are increasing in most OECD countries. The labor market adjustment to these reforms has not yet been thoroughly investigated by the literature. We draw on a major pension reform that took place in Italy in December 2011 that increased the retirement age by up to six years for some categories of workers. We have access to a unique dataset validated by the Italian social security administration (INPS), which identifies in each private firm, based on an administrative exam of eligibility conditions, how many workers were locked in by the sudden increase in the retirement age, and for how long. We find that firms mostly affected by the lock in are those that were downsizing even before the policy shock. The increase in the retirement age seems to displace more middle-aged workers than young workers. Furthermore, there is not a one-to-one increase in the number of older workers in the firms where some workers were locked in by the reform. We provide tentative explanations for these results, based on the interaction between retirement, employment protection legislation and liquidity constraints of firms.

• Foldnes, Njål & Grønneberg, Steffen (2021)
  Non-normal Data Simulation using Piecewise Linear Transforms

  Structural Equation Modeling, 29(1) , s. 1-12. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/10705511.2021.1949323 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  We present PLSIM, a new method for generating nonnormal data with a pre-specified covariance matrix that is based on coordinate-wise piecewise linear transformations of standard normal variables. In our presentation, the piecewise linear transforms are chosen to match pre-specified skewness and kurtosis values for each marginal distribution. We demonstrate the flexibility of the new method, and an implementation using R software is provided.

• Geys, Benny; Murdoch, Zuzana & Sørensen, Rune Jørgen (2021)
  Political (Over)Representation of Public Sector Employees and the Double-Motive Hypothesis: Evidence from Norwegian Register Data (2007-2019)

  Journal of Public Administration Research and Theory (JPART), 32(2) , s. 326-341. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1093/jopart/muab034 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Countries have widely diverging regulations regarding the eligibility of public sector employees for political office, and the stringency of such regulations remains fiercely debated. Building on a demand and supply model of political selection, this article contributes to such debates by studying whether and how the incentives of public employees as both consumers and producers of public services (their ‘double motive’) affects their descriptive political representation. Our analysis employs population-wide individual-level register data covering four Norwegian local elections between 2007 and 2019 (N>13 million observations). Using predominantly individual-level panel regression models, we find that public employees are strongly overrepresented on election lists and have a higher probability of election (conditional on running). Looking at underlying mechanisms, we provide evidence consistent with the ‘double motive’ of public employees inducing their self-selection into standing for elected office (at higher-ranked ballot positions). Demand-side effects deriving from party and voter selection receive more limited empirical support. We discuss ensuing concerns about the potential substantive representation of policy self-interests by elected public employees.

• Athanasopoulos, George; Sarafidis, Vasilis, Weatherburn, Don & Miller, Rohan (2021)
  Longer-term impacts of trading restrictions on alcohol-related violence: insights from New South Wales, Australia

  Addiction, 117(5) Doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/add.15774 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Background and Aims:In February 2014, the government of New South Wales (NSW),Australia, introduced new restrictions (known as the‘lockout laws’) on the sale of alco-hol in licensed premises in two of Sydney’s most prominent entertainment districts,Kings Cross (KX) and the central business district (CBD). This study aimed to determine:(i) whether the introduction of the lockout laws was the point at which the time patternof the assault series in the KX and CBD entertainment precincts changed; (ii) whetherthe apparent reduction in assault in these precincts persists when we control for com-mon variations in assault across the entire state of NSW; (iii) whether the reduction inassault in the KX and CBD entertainment precincts resulted in a displacement of theassault problem into other areas; and (iv) whether there is a net reduction in assault aftertaking any spill-over or displacement effects into account.Design:Structural break analysis was used to determine the date at which the time pat-tern of assaults changed. Interrupted time series analysis with a rest-of-NSW comparatorwas used to assess the change in assault.Setting, cases and measurements:The monthly totals of incidents of non-domesticassaults reported to the NSW Police between January 2009 and March 2019 (n= 123).Findings:The structural break in assaults occurred in January 2014 rather than inFebruary 2014, when the lockout laws were introduced. The reduction in assault persistseven when we control for common influences across NSW as a whole. In particular, fromJanuary 2014 onwards, assaults fell immediately by 22% (a downward step) in KX (90%confidence interval [CI] = 15–28) and by 33% in the CBD (90% CI = 19–47). Assaultscontinued declining in KX (trend-break coefficient =−0.094, 90% CI =−0.192 to 0.005).The reduction in assault in the KX and CBD precincts is associated with a rise in assaultin areas surrounding these precincts. The net effect, nonetheless, remains a lower levelof assault. In particular, we estimate that the net reduction over the three areas com-bined was 1670 assaults (i.e. 27 per month).Conclusion:Some of the initial reduction in assault in KX and the CBD of Sydney, Australia,previously attributed to the February 2014 introduction of lockout laws may have been aresponse to publicity surrounding recent deaths connected with alcohol-related violence.

• Mehlum, Halvor; Natvik, Gisle James & Torvik, Ragnar (2021)
  The Inefficient Combination: Competitive Markets, Free Entry, and Democracy

  [Report Research]. Centre for Applied Macroeconomics and Commodity Prices (CAMP)

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  We show that under fairly general conditions, the combination of (i) competitive markets, (ii) free entry, and (iii) democracy is inconsistent with allocative efficiency. This fundamental impossibility result, which has not been derived before, holds whenever not only prices, but also policy, responds to factor allocations. We develop a theory where agents enter an occupation (more generally, enter an economic activity) and thereafter make a policy decision. Thus, each voter's self interest becomes endogenous to the entry decision. In our baseline model, the policy instrument that citizens decide upon is simply taxation. Workers in occupations whose services are in high demand by the government have an incentive to vote for high taxes. Voters in occupations whose services are in low demand by the government have an incentive to vote for low taxes. We show that the socially efficient size of the public sector cannot be sustained in equilibrium, despite free entry into occupations. We generalize our theory, and show how our impossibility result extends well beyond the baseline model. We also discuss how departing from competitive markets may affect equilibrium outcomes. Our analysis implies that when assessing causes and consequences of factor allocations, it is key to acknowledge how allocations affect not only prices, but also policies.

• Andersen, Jørgen Juel; Nordvik, Frode Martin & Tesei, Andrea (2021)
  Oil Price Shocks and Conflict Escalation: Onshore versus Offshore

  Journal of Conflict Resolution, , s. 1-30. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027211042664 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  We reconsider the relationship between oil and conflict, focusing on the location of oil resources. In a panel of 132 countries over the period 1962-2009, we show that oil windfalls escalate conflict in onshore-rich countries, while they de-escalate conflict in offshore-rich countries. We use a model to illustrate how these opposite effects can be explained by a fighting capacity mechanism, whereby the government can use offshore oil income to increase its fighting capacity, while onshore oil may be looted by oppositional groups to finance a rebellion. We provide empirical evidence supporting this interpretation: we find that oil price windfalls increase both the number and strength of active rebel groups in onshore-rich countries, while they strengthen the government in offshore-rich ones.

• Cross, Jamie; Hou, Chenghan & Nguyen, Bao (2021)
  On the China factor in the world oil market: A regime switching approach

  Energy Economics, 95, s. 105-119. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105119 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  We investigate the relationship between China's macroeconomic performance and the world oil market over the past two decades. Unlike existing studies, we allow for possible regime changes by utilizing a class of Markov-switching vector autoregression (MS-VAR) models. The model identifies key regime changes in the structural shocks when the oil market experiences low and high volatility. We find that demand shocks from China and the rest of the world have a larger impact on the real price of crude oil during periods of high volatility. Supply shocks, in contrast, have a large effect on the price in the low volatility regime. A similar state-dependent phenomenon is observed for the impact of oil price shocks on China economic activity, however the size of these responses is relatively small. Thus, despite China being a major player in international oil markets, we conclude that oil market shocks tend to have little impact on China's real GDP growth.

• Korotov, Sergey & Vatne, Jon Eivind (2021)
  Preserved Structure Constants for Red Refinements of Product Elements

  Numerical Geometry, Grid Generation and Scientific Computing. Proceedings of the 10th International Conference, NUMGRID 2020 / Delaunay 130, Celebrating the 130th Anniversary of Boris Delaunay, Moscow, Russia, November 2020, , s. 241-248. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-76798-3_15 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  In this paper we discuss some strategy for red refinements of product elements and show that there are certain structure characteristics (d-sines of angles formed by certain edges in the initial partition) which remain constant during refinement processes. Such a property immediately implies the validity of the so-called maximum angle condition, which is a strongly desired property in interpolation theory and finite element analysis. Our construction also gives a clear refinement scheme preserving shape regularity.

• Haugland, Kjersti; Sveen, Tommy & Grytten, Ola Honningdal (2021)
  Norges Bank Watch 2021: An independent Evaluation of Monetary Policy in Norway

  [Report Research]. Centre for Monetary Economics

• Mauritzen, Johannes & Sucarrat, Genaro (2021)
  Increasing Or Diversifying Risk?Tail Correlations, Transmission Flows And Prices Across Wind Power Areas

  Energy Journal, 43(3) , s. 105-131. Doi: https://doi.org/10.5547/01956574.43.3.jmau - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  As wind power costs have declined, capacity has grown quickly, often times in adjacent areas. Price and volatility risk from wind power's intermittency can be mitigated through geographic diversification and transmission. But wind power generation has a fat-tailed and right-skewed distribution. In this article we investigate how geographic diversification of wind power and the effect of wind power on market prices varies across the distribution of production. In a case study from Denmark and Sweden, we show that during tail-end production periods, correlations between areas increase substantially as does congestion in the transmission network. This leads to highly non-linear price effects. The marginal effect of wind power on the local prices is shown to be substantially higher at the 10th decile of wind power production. This has implications for valuation models of wind power projects and for operations of electricity markets with high penetrations of wind power.

• Bizzotto, Jacopo & Vigier, Adrien Henri (2021)
  Fees, Reputation and Information Production in the Credit Rating Industry

  American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, 13(2) , s. 1-34. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20180170 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  We compare a credit rating agency’s incentives to acquire costly information when it is only paid for giving favorable ratings to the corresponding incentives when the agency is paid upfront, i.e. irrespective of the ratings assigned. We show that, in the presence of moral hazard, contingent fees provide stronger dynamic incentives to acquire information than upfront fees and may induce higher social welfare. When the fee structure is chosen by the agency, contingent fees arise as an equilibrium outcome, in line with the way the market for credit rating actually works.

• Seljom, Liselotte; Bygballe, Lena Elisabeth, Riis, Christian, Petkovic, Gordana & Berg, Hallvard (2021)
  Klimatilpasning av vårt bygde miljø og utfordringer ved dagens kost-nytteanalyser

  Praktisk Økonomi & Finans, 37(01) , s. 63-82. Doi: https://doi.org/10.18261/issn.1504-2871-2021-01-07 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  I løpet av dette århundret vil klimaet endre seg så betydelig i Norge at vi risikerer at vårt eksisterende bygde miljø ikke vil tåle endringene. Bygg og infrastruktur har et planlagt livsløp som strekker seg langt frem i tid, til et klima som er våtere, villere og varmere enn det vi har i dag. For å sikre at våre hjem, skoler, sykehus, arbeidsplasser, veier og annen infrastruktur er robuste på lengre sikt, må vi allerede i dag planlegge for det fremtidige klimaet. All samfunnsplanlegging og investering skal være velbegrunnet og gjennomtenkt. Samfunnsøkonomiske analyser er ofte et krav og en viktig del av beslutningsgrunnlaget til våre forvaltningsorgan. Men, dagens kost-nytteanalyser fanger verken opp kostnadene av klimaendringene godt nok eller nyttene ved ulike klimatilpasningstiltak. Kost-nytteanalyser generelt er heller ikke velegnet til å sikre helhetlig klimatilpasning og samordning på tvers av sektorer. Til dette trenger vi nye metoder og verktøy.

• Guo, Na; Zhang, Bo & Cross, Jamie (2021)
  Time-varying trend models for forecasting inflation in Australia

  Journal of Forecasting, 24(2) , s. 316-330. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/for.2814 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  We investigate whether a class of trend models, which decompose a time series into an underlying trend and transitory component, with various error term structures can improve upon the forecast performance of commonly used time series models when forecasting consumer price index (CPI) inflation in Australia. The main result is that trend models tend to provide more accurate point and density forecasts at medium to long forecasting horizons compared with conventional autoregressive and Phillips curve models. The best medium‐term point forecasts come from a trend model with stochastic volatility in the transitory component and that with a moving average component, whereas long‐run point forecasts are better made by trend models with stochastic volatilities and a moving average component. In a full sample study, we also find that trend models can capture various dynamics in periods of significance to the Australian economy which conventional models cannot. This includes the dramatic reduction in inflation when the RBA adopted inflation targeting, a one‐off 10% Goods and Services Tax inflationary episode in 2000, and then gradually decline in inflation since 2014

• Fiva, Jon H.; Hagen, Terje P. & Sørensen, Rune Jørgen (2021)
  Kommunal organisering

  [Textbook]. Universitetsforlaget

• Norkutė, Milda; Sarafidis, Vasilis, Yamagata, Takashi & Cui, Guowei (2021)
  Instrumental variable estimation of dynamic linear panel data models with defactored regressors and a multifactor error structure

  Journal of Econometrics, 220(2) , s. 416-446. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2020.04.008 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  This paper develops two instrumental variable (IV) estimators for dynamic panel data models with exogenous covariates and a multifactor error structure when both the cross-sectional and time series dimensions, and respectively, are large. The main idea is to project out the common factors from the exogenous covariates of the model, and to construct instruments based on defactored covariates. For models with homogeneous slope coefficients, we propose a two-step IV estimator. In the first step, the model is estimated consistently by employing defactored covariates as instruments. In the second step, the entire model is defactored based on estimated factors extracted from the residuals of the first-step estimation, after which an IV regression is implemented using the same instruments as in step one. For models with heterogeneous slope coefficients, we propose a mean-group-type estimator, which involves the averaging of first-step IV estimates of cross-section-specific slopes. The proposed estimators do not need to seek for instrumental variables outside the model. Furthermore, these estimators are linear, and therefore computationally robust and inexpensive. Notably, they require no bias correction. We investigate the finite sample performances of the proposed estimators and associated statistical tests, and the results show that the estimators and the tests perform well even for small N and T.

• Bjørnland, Hilde C; Nordvik, Frode Martin & Rohrer, Maximilian (2021)
  Supply flexibility in the shale patch: Evidence from North Dakota

  Journal of applied econometrics, 36(3) , s. 273-292. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.2808 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  This paper provides new results to the literature, showing that output flexibility in oil production depends on the extraction technology. In particular, constructing a novel well-level monthly production dataset covering more than 16,000 crude oil wells in North Dakota, we find supply elasticity of shale wells to be positive and in the range of 0.3–0.9, depending on wells and firms characteristics. We find no such responses for conventional wells. We interpret the supply pattern of shale oil wells to be consistent with the Hotelling theory of optimal extraction. Reserves are an inventory, and the decision to produce is an intertemporal choice of when to draw down below-ground inventory.

• Bizzotto, Jacopo; Rudiger, Jesper & Vigier, Adrien Henri (2021)
  Dynamic Persuasion with Outside Information

  American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, 13(1) , s. 179-194. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20180141 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  A principal seeks to persuade an agent to accept an offer of uncertain value before a deadline expires. The principal can generate information, but exerts no control over exogenous outside information. The combined effect of the deadline and outside information creates incentives for the principal to keep uncertainty high in the first periods so as to persuade the agent close to the deadline. We characterize the equilibrium, compare it to the single-player decision problem in which exogenous outside information is the agent's only source of information, and examine the welfare implications of our analysis.

• Concha, Ursula Alejandra Landazuri; Asche, Frank & Straume, Hans-Martin (2021)
  Dynamics of Buyer-Seller Relations in Norwegian Wine Imports

  Journal of Wine Economics, 16(1) , s. 68-85. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1017/jwe.2020.37 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  As for all traded products, aggregated wine imports build on numerous trades at the firm level. To ensure consumers access to a variety of wines with different qualities, importers need to connect to different wine exporters. Some of these relationships will last for a long time, while the duration of others may be short. In this article, we employ transaction-level data to analyze the duration of trade relationships in wine imports to Norway from 2004 to 2014. We find that most relationships are short-lived, as more than 75% of trade relationships end after less than two years. Furthermore, we find that higher-quality wines, as indicated by the import price, increase trade duration. Deeper firm-to-firm trade relationships for more exclusive wines are likely due to higher search costs for high-quality products. The results also show that the size of the initial trade between the partners, or degree of commitment, is a positive determinant for persistent relationships.

• Murdoch, Zuzana; Connolly, Sara Jane, Kassim, Hussein & Geys, Benny (2021)
  Legitimacy Crises and the Temporal Dynamics of Bureaucratic Representation

  Governance. An International Journal of Policy, Administration and Institutions, 35(1) , s. 65-82. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/gove.12569 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  The representation of specific groups and social interests within (or by) the civil service has long been a concern of public administration scholarship. Yet, much of this literature focuses on representation at a single point in time. In this article, we propose a more dynamic perspective. In terms of theory, we postulate specific temporal relationships between triggering cues (e.g., a crisis event) and the representation decisions of civil servants. We specify two complementary mechanisms underlying these relationships: that is, a sensemaking process whereby the perceived meaning and relative salience of distinct groups and interests changes over time; and a shift in bureaucrats' discretion to represent specific groups or interests changes over time. We illustrate these time-dependent processes using interview and survey data from the European Commission.

• Chen, Mei; Ni, Peijie, Reve, Torger, Huang, Jing & Lu, Ren (2021)
  Sales growth or employment growth? Exporting conundrum for new ventures

  Review of International Business and Strategy, Doi: https://doi.org/10.1108/RIBS-04-2020-0048 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Purpose Previous studies primarily focus on how to achieve better performance in the international markets, but few centers on whether internationalization is a promising strategy for new ventures’ growth and development. Based on two pioneering frameworks Conservative, Predictable, and Pacemaker (CPP) model and the 7-P model, this paper fills this gap by analyzing how exporting exert heterogeneous effects on two types of growth, sales growth and employment growth. Accordingly, this paper aims to favor market-oriented new ventures to make a strategy on expanding international markets. Design/methodology/approach This study is based on firm-level data from the Chinese Industrial Enterprises Database. The year 2005 was used as the shock year. By conducting the propensity score matching method, 793 couples of matched new ventures were collected with sales growth and 686 couples with employment growth. The difference-in-differences method was applied to analyze the various influences that exporting has on new ventures’ sales growth and employment growth. Findings The main finding of this paper is that new ventures that exported can achieve better sales growth than their counterparts that only operated domestically, whereas new ventures that remain in the domestic market have no difference in employment growth from those that exported. Research limitations/implications This study shows that exporting is especially beneficial for market-seeking new ventures. Because the study is based on Chinese data, scholars of international business can conduct further research on other countries with different economic structures. Originality/value Theoretically, this paper contributes to both international business theory and entrepreneurship theory by combining the CPP model and the 7-P model. Practically, this paper shows that exports mainly benefit the sales growth of new ventures. This suggests that business practitioners should consider their growth goals before they choose to enter the global market.

• Fiva, Jon H.; Halse, Askill Harkjerr & Smith, Daniel Markham (2021)
  Local Representation and Voter Mobilization in Closed-list Proportional Representation Systems

  Quarterly Journal of Political Science, 16(2) , s. 185-213. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1561/100.00019147 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  We investigate whether geographic representation affects local voting behavior in closed-list proportional representation (PR) systems, where conventional theoretical wisdom suggests a limited role of localism in voter preferences. Using detailed data on Norwegian parliamentary candidates' hometowns, we show that parties engage in geographic balancing when constructing candidate lists. However, because most districts contain more municipalities than seats, not all municipalities will ultimately see a local candidate elected. A regression discontinuity design applied to marginal candidates reveals that parties obtain higher within-district support in subsequent elections in incumbents' hometowns — novel evidence of "friends-and-neighbors" voting in an otherwise party-centered environment. Exploring the mechanisms, we find that represented municipalities often continue to have locally-connected candidates in top positions, in contrast to municipalities with losing candidates, and are more frequently referenced in legislative speeches. There is no evidence that unequal representation creates inequalities in distributive policies.

• Korotov, Sergey; Lund, Lars Fredrik Kirkebø & Vatne, Jon Eivind (2021)
  Improved Maximum Angle Estimate for Longest-Edge Bisection

  International journal of computational geometry and applications, 31(4) , s. 183-192. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1142/S0218195922500017

• Titl, Vitezslav; Witte, Kristof De & Geys, Benny (2021)
  Political Donations, Public Procurement and Government Efficiency

  World Development, 148(105666) Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2021.105666 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Public procurement markets are worth 10–15% of global GDP. Recent empirical evidence suggests that firms’ political donations can induce important distortions in the allocation of public procurement contracts. In this article, we employ a non-parametric efficiency model to study the implications of such distortions for the regional governments’ efficiency. Using a unique dataset covering the Czech regions over the 2007–2017 period, we find that the efficiency of public good provision is lower when a larger share of public procurement contracts is awarded to firms donating to the party in power (‘party donors’) – even when we account for quality differences in public goods provision. We link the dependence on politically connected firms to the institutional design of the procurement allocation process (i.e. the use of less restrictive and less open allocation procedures), which helps explaining the mechanics behind the observed decrease in efficiency.

• Dalen, Dag Morten; Locatelli, Marilena & Strøm, Steinar Øivind (2021)
  Biosimilar bidding in centralized tenders in Norway

  Nordic Journal of Health Economics, 9(1) , s. 11-23. Doi: https://doi.org/10.5617/njhe.7394 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Our objective is to study the competition effect of biosimilar entry in centralized tenders for an expensive category or drugs - TNF-inhibitors. We use monthly observations of prices and volumes for all brands and biosimilars in this drug category in Norway, covering the period from Jan. 2006 to Dec. 2016. Descriptive statistics and regression models are used to investigate the impact of biosimilars on the drug price and the effect of the number of brands on the intensity of competition. Both the entry of biosimilars and new branded drugs have increased competition and reduced prices. According to our estimates, an increase in the market share of biosimilars from 10 % to 60 %, will be accompanied with a 50 % reduction in the expected price. Only two years after entry, the first biosimilars in this drug category had gained a market share of 40 % in Norwegian hospitals. Although entry barriers for biosimilars are higher than for generics of chemical substances, significant cost savings are expected from patent expirations of expensive biologics as well. The centralized design of the tenders is an important institutional factor behind the strong competition effect.

• Wilhelmsen, Vivi Cathrine Ringnes; Larsen, Thea K., Lund, Mass Soldal, Svenungsen, Bjørn & Aannø, Stig Tore (2021)
  Jakten på Norges militære cyberstrategi

  Militærmakt i nord, , s. 242-260.

• Fagereng, Andreas; Holm, Martin Blomhoff, Gulbrandsen, Magnus & Natvik, Gisle James (2021)
  How Does Monetary Policy Affect Household Indebtedness?

  [Professional Article]. Working Paper, Norges Bank, 2021(5) , s. 1-24.

• Bjorvatn, Kjetil; Galle, Simon, Berge, Lars Ivar Oppedal, Miguel, Edward, Posner, Daniel, Tungodden, Bertil & Zhang, Kelly (2021)
  Elections and selfishness

  Electoral Studies: an international journal on voting and electoral systems and strategy, 69, s. 1-6. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2020.102267 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Elections affect the division of resources in society and are occasions for political elites to make appeals rooted in voters' self-interest. Hence, elections may erode altruistic norms and cause people to behave more selfishly. We test this intuition using Dictator Games in a lab-in-the-field experiment involving a sample of more than 1000 individuals in Kenya and Tanzania. We adopt two approaches. First, we experimentally prime participants to think about the upcoming or most recent elections and find that this priming treatment reduces how much money participants are willing to give to other players. Second, we compare results obtained across lab rounds in Kenya taking place right before the country's 2013 national elections and eight months prior, and find that selfishness is greater in the lab round more proximate to the election. Our results suggest that elections may affect social behavior in important—and previously unrecognized—ways.

• Bos, Olivier; Martinez, Francisco Gomez, Onderstal, Sander & Truyts, Tom (2021)
  Signalling in auctions: Experimental evidence

  Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 187, s. 448-469. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2021.04.001 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  We study the relative performance of the first-price sealed-bid auction, the second-price sealed-bid auction, and the all-pay sealed-bid auction in a laboratory experiment where bidders can signal information through their bidding behaviour to an outside observer. We consider two different information settings: the auctioneer reveals either the identity of the winning bidder only, or she also reveals the bidders’ payments to an outside observer. We find that the all-pay sealed-bid auction in which the bidders’ payments are revealed outperforms the other mechanisms in terms of revenue, while this mechanism underperforms in terms of efficiency relative to the winner-pay auctions.

• Fagereng, Andreas; Holm, Martin Blomhoff & Natvik, Gisle James (2021)
  MPC Heterogeneity and Household Balance Sheets

  American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 13(4) , s. 1-54. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20190211 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  We use sizable lottery prizes in Norwegian administrative panel data to explore how transitory income shocks are spent and saved over time, and how households’ marginal propensities to consume (MPCs) vary with household characteristics and shock size. We find that spending peaks in the year of winning and gradually reverts to normal within five years. Controlling for all items on households’ balance sheets and characteristics such as education and income, it is the amount won, age, and liquid assets that vary systematically with MPCs. Low-liquidity winners of the smallest prizes (around USD 1,500) are estimated to spend all within the year of winning. The corresponding estimate for high-liquidity winners of large prizes (USD 8,300-150,000) is slightly below one half. While conventional models will struggle to account for such high MPC levels, we show that a two-asset life-cycle model with a realistic earnings profile and a luxury bequest motive can account for both the time profile of consumption responses and their systematic co-variation with observables.

• Asche, Frank; Straume, Hans-Martin & Vårdal, Erling (2021)
  Perish or prosper: Trade patterns for highly perishable seafood products

  Agribusiness, 37(4) Doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/agr.21704 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  In recent years trade with highly perishable agricultural products like fresh fish, berries, and cut flowers has increased substantially. The perishability of these products appears to challenge conventional wisdom when it comes to food trade, which emphasizes the importance of large shipments to reduce transportation costs. In this paper, gravity models and several margins of trade are estimated for the trade with fresh salmon, a highly perishable product. The results indicate that increased geographical distance have a larger negative effect than what is generally reported in the literature. Most interestingly, the number of exporters and the shipment frequency increase while there is little impact on shipment size when trade increase. Hence, freshness and possibly avoidance of losses by not selling products by the expiration date seem to be emphasized rather than economies of scale in transportation. [EconLit Citations: F14, Q22].

• Dahl, Kristina Rognlien & Eyjolfsson, Heidar (2021)
  Self-Exciting Jump Processes as Deterioration Models

  Proceedings of the 31st European Safety and Reliability Conference, Doi: https://doi.org/10.3850/978-981-18-2016-8_286-cd - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

• Vorland, lars; Bovim, Gunnar, Gran, Jon Michael, Grødeland, Gunnveig, Hjort, Ingrid, Kristoffersen, Kathrine, Krokstad, Steinar, Nøstbakken, Linda, Schem, Baard-Christian, Sørvoll, Ingvild Hausberg & Kieny, Marie-Paule (2021)
  EKSPERTUTVALGET OM VIRUSVEKTORVAKSINER - Vurderinger av virusvektorvaksiner i og utenfor vaksinasjonsprogrammet

  [Report Research]. Regjeringen.no

• Larsen, Marie Haugli & Lund, Mass Soldal (2021)
  Cyber Risk Perception in the Maritime Domain: A Systematic Literature Review

  IEEE Access, 9, s. 144895-144905. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1109/ACCESS.2021.3122433 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  This paper aims to present an approach to investigate cyber risk perception with use of recognized psychological models, and to give an overview of state-of-the-art research within the field of cyber risk perception in general and in the context of the maritime domain. The focus will be on determinative dimensions within the psychometric paradigm and cognitive biases, and to give recommendations on further research within these fields. Okoli and Schabram’s eight-step guide to plan, select, extract, and execute a systematic literature review is used as guidance. The search process resulted in 25 relevant articles which describes 24 dimensions of cyber risk perception in different online environments. Research within the area of maritime cyber security is increasing, however, no studies relevant for our literature review were found within the maritime domain. The nine dimensions in the psychometric model, perceived benefit and the optimistic bias is presented and discussed in a maritime context. Cyber risk perception is a complex research-area where both determinative factors and other cognitive processes can be influenced by each other. This can indicate that the dimensions differ across populations and professions, creating grounds for why context-specific studies are important. Further research may benefit from more multidisciplinary, descriptive, and inductive approaches, and contextual studies within maritime cyber risk perception can contribute to develop targeted tools for risk mitigation to enhance safety at sea.

• Bjørnland, Hilde C (2020)
  Et ekspansivt budsjett, preget av usikkerhet

  [Popular Science Article]. Samfunnsøkonomen, (5) , s. 18-21. - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  ‘Regjeringen lot seg ikke lede inn i fristelsen, men har levert et overraskende nøkternt budsjett…’, kunne man lese i en kommentar i E24 etter at regjeringen la frem nasjonalbudsjettet 7. oktober. Og mange av kommentarene rett etterpå handlet nettopp om det; nemlig at regjeringen ikke legger opp til å bruke så mye oljepenger som enkelte hadde trodd eller fryktet. Men det betyr ikke at det er nøkternt.

• Geys, Benny & Sørensen, Rune Jørgen (2020)
  Administrative Delegation in Budgetary Powers and Fiscal Performance

  Kyklos (Basel), 73(4) , s. 477-499. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/kykl.12248 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Does delegation of the budget preparation process to top civil servants improve or worsen fiscal performance? We address this question by analyzing high‐quality data on budgetary procedures and fiscal performance over a 25‐year period in Norwegian local governments. This long time period allows exploiting substantial variation in budgetary procedures across time and space. The results show that administrative delegation decreases fiscal deficits as a share of current revenues. Compared to procedures relying on political coordination or the traditional ‘bottom‐up’ procedure, deficits are approximately 0.3 percentage points lower on average under administrative delegation. Still, this effect is conditional upon the presence of minority governments and fails to materialize when the mayor enjoys majority support in the local council. Our results thus indicate that administrative delegation in budgetary processes may constitute an important tool to alleviate poor fiscal performance arising due to political coordination failures and weak political decision‐making.

• Dalen, Dag Morten (2020)
  Med forhandlingsmakt skal legemiddelprisene fastsettes

  Samfunnsøkonomen, 34(5) , s. 62-70. - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Det kommer stadig nye legemidler på markedet som gjør det mulig å forbedre behandlingen av pasienter med alvorlige sykdommer, men disse kommer ofte med en prislapp som vekker oppsikt. Før slike legemidler kommer inn i det offentlig finansierte behandlingstilbudet, må staten og legemiddelfirmaene enes om prisen. Hva kan vi si om utfallet av slike prisforhandlinger, og hvordan bør staten best innrette seg som forhandler? Et naturlig sted å lete etter svar er i Nash-forhandlingsmodellen. I denne artikkelen bringer jeg litt helse inn i den, og drøfter så forhold som påvirker forhandlingsresultatet.

• Gundersen, Thomas Størdal (2020)
  The impact of U.S. supply shocks on the global oil price

  Energy Journal, 41(1) , s. 151-174. Doi: https://doi.org/10.5547/01956574.41.1.tgun - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  I examine the role of the U.S. shale oil boom in driving global oil prices. Using a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model that identifies separate oil supply shocks for the U.S. and OPEC, I find that U.S. supply shocks can account for up to 13% of the oil price variation over the 2003-2015 period. This is considerably more than what has been found in other studies. Moreover, while U.S. oil production has increased substantially since 2010, U.S. oil supply shocks first started to contribute negatively to oil prices beginning in late 2013. This mismatch implies a temporary friction in the transmission of U.S. supply shocks to the rest of the world likely caused by logistical and technological challenges observed in the downstream supply chain.

• Sucarrat, Genaro & Grønneberg, Steffen (2020)
  Risk Estimation with a Time-Varying Probability of Zero Returns

  Journal of Financial Econometrics, 20(2) , s. 278-309. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1093/jjfinec/nbaa014 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  The probability of an observed financial return being equal to zero is not necessarily zero, or constant. In ordinary models of financial return, however, e.g. ARCH, SV, GAS and continuous-time models, the zero-probability is zero, constant or both, thus frequently resulting in biased risk estimates (volatility, Value-at-Risk, Expected Shortfall, etc.). We propose a new class of models that allows for a time varying zero-probability that can either be stationary or non-stationary. The new class is the natural generalisation of ordinary models of financial return, so ordinary models are nested and obtained as special cases. The main properties (e.g. volatility, skewness, kurtosis, Value-at-Risk, Expected Shortfall) of the new model class are derived as functions of the assumed volatility and zero-probability specifications, and estimation methods are proposed and illustrated. In a comprehensive study of the stocks at New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) we find extensive evidence of time varying zero-probabilities in daily returns, and an out-of-sample experiment shows that corrected risk estimates can provide significantly better forecasts in a large number of instances.

• Dalen, Dag Morten (2020)
  Patenter når epidemiene rammer

  [Professional Article]. Dagens medisin,

• Geys, Benny; Heggedal, Tom-Reiel & Sørensen, Rune Jørgen (2020)
  Popular support for environmental protection: A life-cycle perspective

  British Journal of Political Science, 51(3) , s. 1348-1355. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123419000607 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Support for environmental protection is generally perceived as driven by cohort or generational effects. We argue and empirically illustrate that such attitudes also fluctuate over the life cycle. Using rotating panels of the Norwegian Election Studies (1989-2013), our analysis is able to identify such life-cycle effects while controlling for cohort and period effects through a methodological innovation exploiting the first-derivative properties of the environmental concern function. Our main findings provide strong evidence of an inverted U-shape over the life cycle, which implies that substantial population aging in advanced economies may partially offset any generational shift towards a greater emphasis on protecting the environment.

• Stauskas, Ovidijus (2020)
  On the limit theory of mixed to unity VARs: Panel setting with weakly dependent errors

  Journal of Time Series Analysis, 41(6) , s. 892-898.

• Larsen, Erling Røed (2020)
  Hvilke mekanismer og krefter former verdensøkonomien fremover, Formue 1/2020, s 8 – 15

  [Popular Science Article]. Formue, 1, s. 8-15.

• Eriksen, Eivind (2020)
  Iterated Extensions and Uniserial Length Categories

  Algebras and Representation Theory, 24, s. 273-286. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10468-020-09946-0 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  In this paper, we study length categories using iterated extensions. We fix a field k, and for any family S of orthogonal k-rational points in an Abelian k-category A, we consider the category Ext(S) of iterated extensions of S in A, equipped with the natural forgetful functor Ext(S) → A(S) into the length category A(S). There is a necessary and sufficient condition for a length category to be uniserial, due to Gabriel, expressed in terms of the Gabriel quiver (or Ext-quiver) of the length category. Using Gabriel’s criterion, we give a complete classification of the indecomposable objects in A(S) when it is a uniserial length category. In particular, we prove that there is an bstruction for a path in the Gabriel quiver to give rise to an indecomposable object. The obstruction vanishes in the hereditary case, and can in general be expressed using matric Massey products. We discuss the close connection between this obstruction, and the noncommutative deformations of the family S in A. As an application, we classify all graded holonomic D-modules on a monomial curve over the complex numbers, obtaining the most explicit results over the affine line, when D is the first Weyl algebra. We also give a non-hereditary example, where we compute the obstructions and show that they do not vanish.

• Gulbrandsen, Magnus Andreas Haare & Natvik, Gisle James (2020)
  Monetary Policy and Household Debt

  Nordic Economic Policy Review, , s. 67-99. Doi: https://doi.org/10.6027/Nord2020-025 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  We address the interplay between household debt accumulation and monetary policy. Monetary policy likely affects household debt-to-income ratios via disposable income and inflation, not just by changing the financial incentive to save. We provide micro-level snapshots from Norway on how households’ income flows and debt accumulation co-move with interest rates and inflation. Real interest rate hikes are associated with increased real debt due to strong negative association between inflation and real debt. We therefore caution against pursuing contractionary policies to curb household debt. By lowering inflation, such policies might backfire and increase household debt burdens.

• Gharsallah, Sofian & Sucarrat, Genaro (2020)
  Hvor presise er prognosene i Nasjonalbudsjettet?

  Samfunnsøkonomen, 134(3) , s. 13-20.

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  Årlige prognoser av norsk økonomi er av stor viktighet for beslutningstakere. Dette gjelder spesielt stortingspolitikerne som vedtar Statsbudsjettet basert på prognosene i Nasjonalbudsjettet. Disse prognosene utarbeides av Finansdepartementet. I dette studiet evaluerer vi presisjonen til et utvalg prognoser i perioden 1999-2018. Vi finner ingen generell støtte for hypotesen om at prognosene til enkle modeller er mer presise enn de til nasjonalbudsjettet. Videre finner vi at Nasjonalbudsjettets prognoser er: Generelt litt mer presise enn de til enkle modeller, på nivå med prognosene til Norges Bank og SSB, og at de i gjennomsnitt treffer det de sikter på.

• Gaasland, Ivar (2020)
  Verdikjeden for mat - importbeskyttelse eller konkurranse?

  Mot bedre vitende i norsk matsektor, , s. 158-192. Doi: https://doi.org/10.23865/noasp.93

• Sucarrat, Genaro (2020)
  User-Specified General-to-Specific and Indicator Saturation Methods

  The R Journal, 12(2) , s. 388-401. Doi: https://doi.org/10.32614/rj-2021-024 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Abstract General-to-Specific (GETS) modelling provides a comprehensive, systematic and cumulative approach to modelling that is ideally suited for conditional forecasting and counterfactual analysis, whereas Indicator Saturation (ISAT) is a powerful and flexible approach to the detection and estimation of structural breaks (e.g. changes in parameters), and to the detection of outliers. To these ends, multi path backwards elimination, single and multiple hypothesis tests on the coefficients, diagnostics tests and goodness-of-fit measures are combined to produce a parsimonious final model. In many situations a specific model or estimator is needed, a specific set of diagnostics tests may be required, or a specific fit criterion is preferred. In these situations, if the combination of estimator/model, diagnostics tests and fit criterion is not offered in a pre-programmed way by publicly available software, then the implementation of user-specified GETS and ISAT methods puts a large programming-burden on the user. Generic functions and procedures that facilitate the implementation of user-specified GETS and ISAT methods for specific problems can therefore be of great benefit. The R package gets is the first software – both inside and outside the R universe – to provide a complete set of facilities for user-specified GETS and ISAT methods: User-specified model/estimator, user-specified diagnostics and user-specified goodness-of-fit criteria. The aim of this article is to illustrate how user-specified GETS and ISAT methods can be implemented with the R package gets.

• Kreiberg, David; Marcoulides, Katerina & Olsson, Ulf H. (2020)
  A faster procedure for estimating CFA models applying Minimum Distance Estimators with a fixed weight matrix

  Structural Equation Modeling, Doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/10705511.2020.1835484 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  This paper presents a numerically more efficient implementation of the quadratic form minimum distance (MD) estimator with a fixed weight matrix for confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) models. In structural equation modeling (SEM) computer software, such as EQS, lavaan, LISREL and Mplus, various MD estimators are available to the user. Standard procedures for implementing MD estimators involve a one-step approach applying non-linear optimization techniques. Our implementation differs from the standard approach by utilizing a two-step estimation procedure. In the first step, only a subset of the parameters are estimated using non-linear optimization. In the second step, the remaining parameters are obtained using numerically efficient linear least squares (LLS) methods. Through examples, it is demonstrated that the proposed implementation of MD estimators may be considerably faster than what the standard implementation offer. The proposed procedure will be of particular interest in computationally intensive applications such as simulation, bootstrapping, and other procedures involving re-sampling.

• Labonne, Paul & Weale, Martin (2020)
  Temporal disaggregation of overlapping noisy quarterly data: estimation of monthly output from UK value-added tax data

  Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A (Statistics in Society), 183(3) , s. 1211-1230. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/rssa.12568

• Larsen, Vegard Høghaug (2020)
  Components of Uncertainty

  International Economic Review, 62(2) , s. 769-788. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12499 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Uncertainty is acknowledged to be a source of economic fluctuations. But, does the type of uncertainty matter for the economy’s response to an uncertainty shock? This paper offers a novel identification strategy to disentangle different types of uncertainty. It uses machine learning techniques to classify different types of news instead of specifying a set of keywords. The paper finds that, depending on its source, the effects of uncertainty on a macroeconomic variable may differ. I find that both good (expansionary effect) and bad (contractionary effect) types of uncertainty exist.

• Rudiger, Jesper & Vigier, Adrien Henri (2020)
  Who Acquires Information in Dealer Markets?

  The American Economic Review, 110(4) , s. 1145-1176. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20170690 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  We study information acquisition in dealer markets. We first identify a one-sided strategic complementarity in information acquisition: the more informed traders are, the larger market makers' gain from becoming informed. When quotes are observable, this effect in turn induces a strategic complementarity in information acquisition amongst market makers. We then derive the equilibrium pattern of information acquisition and examine the implications of our analysis for market liquidity and price discovery. We show that increasing the cost of information can decrease market liquidity and improve price discovery.

• Juelsrud, Ragnar Enger & Nenov, Plamen (2020)
  Dividend payouts and rollover crises

  The Review of financial studies, 33(9) , s. 4139-4185. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhz130 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  We study dividend payouts when banks face coordination-based rollover crises. Banks in the model can use dividends to both risk shift and signal their available liquidity to short-term lenders, thus, influencing the lenders’ actions. In the unique equilibrium both channels induce banks to pay higher dividends than in the absence of a rollover crisis. In our model banks exert an informational externality on other banks via the inferences and actions of lenders. Optimal dividend regulation that corrects this externality and promote financial stability includes a binding cap on dividends. We also discuss testable implications of our theory.

• Fiva, Jon Hernes & Hix, Simon (2020)
  Electoral Reform and Strategic Coordination

  British Journal of Political Science, 51(4) , s. 1782-1791. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123419000747 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Electoral reform creates new strategic coordination incentives for voters and elites, but endogeneity problems make such effects hard to identify. This article addresses this issue by investigating an extraordinary dataset, from the introduction of proportional representation (PR) in Norway in 1919, which permits the measurement of parties’ vote shares in pre-reform single-member districts and in the same geographic units in the post-reform multi-member districts. The electoral reform had an immediate effect on the fragmentation of the party system, due in part to strategic party entry. The authors find, though, that another main effect of the reform was that many voters switched between existing parties, particularly between the Liberals and Conservatives, as the incentives for these voters to coordinate against Labor were removed by the introduction of PR.

• Geys, Benny & Hernæs, Øystein Marianssønn (2020)
  Party leaders and voter responses to political terrorism

  Public Choice, 187(3) , s. 481-499. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11127-020-00789-3 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  In this article, we study the political implications of terrorism rooted in extremist political ideologies. Our data uniquely allow studying the potential role of party leader evaluations on political outcomes, including voter turnout and vote choice. To strengthen causal identification, we combine an event-study framework with the fact that Norwegians were affected personally to differing degrees by the 22 July 2011 terror attack because of variation in the victims’ municipalities of residence. Our main findings suggest that extreme right-wing terrorism influences party vote intentions and evaluations of political leaders strongly in the short run, as well as party choice in actual elections in the longer run. We document shifts within Norway’s left-right political blocs rather than shifts between those blocs frequently observed following religious/separatist violence.

• Larsen, Vegard Høghaug; Thorsrud, Leif Anders & Zhulanova, Julia (2020)
  News-driven inflation expectations and information rigidities

  Journal of Monetary Economics, 117(January) , s. 507-520. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2020.03.004 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Using a large news corpus and machine learning algorithms we investigate the role played by the media in the expectations formation process of households, and conclude that the news topics media report on are good predictors of both inflation and inflation expectations. In turn, in a noisy information model, augmented with a simple media channel, we document that the time series features of relevant topics help explain time-varying information rigidity among households. As such, we provide a novel estimate of state-dependent information rigidities and present new evidence highlighting the role of the media in understanding inflation expectations and information rigidities.

• Maurseth, Per Botolf & Svensson, Roger (2020)
  The Importance of Tacit Knowledge: Dynamic Inventor Activity in the Commercialization Phase

  Research Policy, 49(7) Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2020.104012 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Inventors generally know more about their inventions than what is written down in patent applications. Because they possess this tacit knowledge, inventors may need to play an active role when patents are commercialized. We build on Arora (1995) and model firm-inventor cooperation in the commercialization of a given invention. Tacit knowledge warrants inventor activity. However, imperfect IPRs may reduce inventors’ incentives to engage in the commercialization process. We analyze when first-best inventor activity is achieved in a two-stage contract. In the empirical part, we analyze when inventor activity is important for the successful commercialization of patents by using a detailed patent database. The database contains unique information on inventor activity, patent commercialization modes and the profitability of commercialization. In the empirical estimations, we find that inventor activity has a strong positive correlation with profitability when a patent is sold or licensed to another firm. When a patent is sold or licensed in the second phase, it is still inventor activity in the first phase that matters for profitability. Thus, our interpretation is that tacit knowledge and close cooperation between inventors and external firms are often crucial for the successful commercialization of patents.

• Geys, Benny & schönhage, Nanna Lauritz (2020)
  Party Cues and Incumbent Assessments under Multilevel Governance

  Electoral Studies: an international journal on voting and electoral systems and strategy, 69 Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2020.102260 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Politicians' party membership allows voters to overcome incomplete information issues. In this article, we maintain that such ‘party cues’ in multilevel governance structures also induce voters to incorporate their assessment of incumbents at one level of government into their assessment of incumbents at other levels of government. Moreover, we argue that these assessment ‘spillovers’ increase in magnitude with voters' level of political information. They become particularly prominent for voters with higher levels of political knowledge and interest as well as during election periods (when information is less costly and more readily available). Empirical analyses using survey data from Germany covering the period 1990 to 2018 corroborate our theoretical propositions.

• Hammer, Svein Ottar & Hansen, Robert (2020)
  Samfunnsfag 8 fra Cappelen Damm

  [Textbook]. Cappelen Damm AS

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  Lærebok for ungdomsskolen, med kapitler fra 10 ulike forfattere (de fleste ikke registrert i Cristin)

• Geys, Benny & Konrad, Kai A. (2020)
  Patriotism and taxation

  Handbook of Patriotism,

• Larsen, Erling Røed; Anundsen, André Kallåk, Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen & Thorsrud, Leif Anders (2020)
  Behavioral changes and policy effects during Covid-19: Evidence from day-by-day sales and bid-by-bid auction logs in the housing market, (with André K. Anundsen, Bjørnar Karlsen Kivedal, and Leif Anders Thorsrud. Housing Lab Working Paper Series 2020-3.

  Housing Lab Working Paper Series, 2020(3)

• Ravazzolo, Francesco; Casarin, Roberto, Corradin, Fausto & Sartore, Domenico (2020)
  A scoring rule for factor and autoregressive models under misspecification

  Advances in Decision Sciences, 24(2) , s. 1-38. Doi: https://doi.org/10.47654/v24y2020i2p66-103 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Factor models (FM) are now widely used for forecasting with large set of time series. Another class of models, which can be easily estimated and used in a large dimensional setting, is multivariate autoregressive models (MAR), where independent autoregressive processes are assumed for the series in the panel. When applied to big data, the estimation, model selection and combination of both models can be time consuming. We assume both FM and MAR models are misspecified and provide a scoring rule which can be evaluated on an initial training sample to either select or combine the models in forecasting exercises on the whole sample. Some numerical illustrations are provided both on simulated data and on well known large economic datasets. The empirical results show that the frequency of the true positive signals is larger when FM and MAR forecasting performances differ substantially and it decreases as the horizon increases

• Natvik, Gisle James; Rime, Dagfinn & Syrstad, Olav (2020)
  Does publication of interest rate paths provide guidance?

  Journal of International Money and Finance, Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2019.102123

• Natvik, Gisle James; Rime, Dagfinn & Syrstad, Olav (2020)
  Does publication of interest rate paths provide guidance?

  Journal of International Money and Finance, 103(May) , s. 1-22. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2019.102123 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Does the central bank practice of publishing interest rate projections (IRPs) improve how market participants map new information into future interest rates? Using high-frequency data on forward rate agreements (FRAs) we compute market forecast errors; differences between expected future interest rates and ex-post realizations. We assess their change in narrow windows around monetary policy announcements and macroeconomic releases in Norway and Sweden. Overall, communication of future policy plans does not improve markets’ response to information, irrespective of whether or not IRPs are in place. A decomposition of market reactions into responses to the current monetary policy action (“target”) and responses to signals about the future (“path”), reveals that only policy actions lead to improvements in market forecasts.

• Maurseth, Per Botolf & Medin, Hege (2020)
  Utenlandsinvesteringer i sjømatnæringen og norsk tilknytning til EU

  Sjømatnæringen og Europa: EØS og alternativene, , s. 232-263. Doi: https://doi.org/10.18261/9788215040080-2020-09 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  I kapittelet drøfter vi utenlandsinvesteringer i sjømatnæringen og Norges forhold til EU. Mens eierskap i fangst hovedsakelig er nasjonalt, er oppdrettsnæringen preget av multinasjonale selskaper. Norge og mange EU-land har begrensninger på utenlandsk eierskap i fangst. Derimot er det ikke tilsvarende begrensninger på utenlandsk eierskap i foredling eller i oppdrett. Alternative tilknytningsformer til EU kan påvirke investeringsstrømmer i fiskerisektoren.

• Benedictow, Andreas; Walbækken, Mikkel & Larsen, Erling Røed (2020)
  Kvantitativ analyse av boligomsetning og budgivning

  [Report Research]. Samfunnsøkonomisk analyse

• Cox, Gary W.; Fiva, Jon Hernes & Smith, Daniel M. (2020)
  Measuring the Competitiveness of Elections

  Political Analysis, 28(2) , s. 168-185. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1017/pan.2019.28 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  The concept of electoral competition plays a central role in many subfields of political science, but no consensus exists on how to measure it. One key challenge is how to conceptualize and measure electoral competitiveness at the district level across alternative electoral systems. Recent efforts to meet this challenge have introduced general measures of competitiveness which rest on explicit calculations about how votes translate into seats, but also implicit assumptions about how effort maps into votes (and how costly effort is). We investigate how assumptions about the effort-to-votes mapping affect the units in which competitiveness is best measured, arguing in favor of vote-share-denominated measures and against vote-share-per-seat measures. Whether elections under multimember proportional representation systems are judged more or less competitive than single-member plurality or runoff elections depends directly on the units in which competitiveness is assessed (and hence on assumptions about how effort maps into votes).

• Larsen, Erling Røed; Benedictow, Andreas & Sundelius, Dag Martin (2020)
  The Housing Phillips Curve, (with Andreas Benedictow and Dag Martin Sundelius), Housing Lab Working Paper Series 2020-2.

  Housing Lab Working Paper Series, 2020(2)

• Davies, Rob; Mehlum, Halvor, Moene, Karl Ove (Kalle) & Torvik, Ragnar (2020)
  How the Zimbabweans pay for the war against covid-19

  [Professional Article]. EDI COVID-19 ESSAY SERIES,

• Mehlum, Halvor & Torvik, Ragnar (2020)
  Macroeconomics in the time of the Corona

  [Report Research]. Handelshøyskolen BI

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  For a developed market economies, the corona crisis is a new type of crisis, but this crisis has parallels to economies at other times, and to crises at other places. We discuss some mechanisms from the traditional macro literature, and from the literature on macroeconomics for developing countries, which contains economic mechanisms that overnight have also become more relevant to developed market economies. Phenomena such as bottlenecks, rationing, forced savings, production constrained by access to inputs, liquidity constraints, sector heterogeneity, and costs running despite production being shut down, are all permanent phenomena in developing countries. During the corona crisis, however, they have also emerged as key mechanisms in developed market economies. We discuss some of these well developed, but partially forgotten mechanisms, by extending simple textbook descriptions, and we provide some examples of how the effects of fiscal and monetary policy are modified in a time of crisis.

• Cross, Jamie; Hou, Chenghan & Poon, Aubrey (2020)
  Macroeconomic forecasting with large Bayesian VARs: Global-local priors and the illusion of sparsity

  International Journal of Forecasting, Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.10.002

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  A class of global-local hierarchical shrinkage priors for estimating large Bayesian vector autoregressions (BVARs) has recently been proposed. We question whether three such priors: Dirichlet-Laplace, Horseshoe, and Normal-Gamma, can systematically improve the forecast accuracy of two commonly used benchmarks (the hierarchical Minnesota prior and the stochastic search variable selection (SSVS) prior), when predicting key macroeconomic variables. Using small and large data sets, both point and density forecasts suggest that the answer is no. Instead, our results indicate that a hierarchical Minnesota prior remains a solid practical choice when forecasting macroeconomic variables. In light of existing optimality results, a possible explanation for our finding is that macroeconomic data is not sparse, but instead dense.

• Gaasland, Ivar; Straume, Hans-Martin & Vårdal, Erling (2020)
  Agglomeration and trade performance – evidence from the Norwegian salmon aquaculture industry

  Aquaculture Economics & Management, 24(2) , s. 181-193. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/13657305.2019.1708995 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Geographical concentration of industries tends to be important for firms that depend on innovation and are intensive in the use of specialized technology and labor. In this paper, we investigate the interaction between agglomeration and trade performance in the Norwegian aquaculture industry. We include a variable for regional clustering in a standard gravity model and estimate its impact on different margins of trade. When controlling for destination country, we find that firms that operate in clusters obtain higher export prices and ship more frequently and in smaller bulks. For a highly perishable product like fresh salmon, this may suggest that firms in clusters are served by more efficient supply chains bringing the product to market with timely and efficient logistics.

• Zhang, Bo; Chan, Joshua & Cross, Jamie (2020)
  Stochastic volatility models with ARMA innovations: An application to G7 inflation forecasts

  International Journal of Forecasting, 36(4) Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2020.01.004 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  We introduce a new class of stochastic volatility models with autoregressive moving average (ARMA) innovations. The conditional mean process has a flexible form that can accommodate both a state space representation and a conventional dynamic regression. The ARMA component introduces serial dependence, which results in standard Kalman filter techniques not being directly applicable. To overcome this hurdle, we develop an efficient posterior simulator that builds on recently developed precision-based algorithms. We assess the usefulness of these new models in an inflation forecasting exercise across all G7 economies. We find that the new models generally provide competitive point and density forecasts compared to standard benchmarks, and are especially useful for Canada, France, Italy, and the U.S.

• Bertocchi, Graziella; Dimico, Arcangelo, Lancia, Francesco & Russo, Alessia (2020)
  Youth enfranchisement, political responsiveness, and education expenditure: Evidence from the US

  American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 12(3) , s. 76-106. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1257/POL.20180203 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  We examine the link between the political participation of the young and fiscal policies in the United States. We generate exogenous variation in participation using the passage of preregistration laws, which allow the young to register before being eligible to vote. After documenting that preregistration promotes youth enfranchisement, we show that preregistration shifts state government spending toward higher education, the type of spending for which the young have the strongest preference. A 1 percent increase in youth voter turnout generates a 0.77 percent increase in higher education spending. The results collectively suggest political responsiveness to the needs of the newly enfranchised constituency.

• Larsen, Erling Røed; Anundsen, André Kallåk & Sommervoll, Dag Einar (2020)
  Strategic price-setting and incentives in the housing market, (with André Kallåk Anundsen and Dag Einar Sommervoll) Housing Lab Working Paper Series 2020-1.

  Housing Lab Working Paper Series, 2020(1)

• Bygballe, Lena Elisabeth; Thomassen, Maria Kristina Kollberg & Riis, Christian (2020)
  Temasamling. Samfunnsøkonomiske aspekter ved klimatilpasning

  [Report Research]. SINTEF akademisk forlag

• Canova, Fabio; Ferroni, Filippo & Matthes, Christian (2020)
  DETECTING AND ANALYZING THE EFFECTS OF TIME‐VARYING PARAMETERS IN DSGE MODELS

  International Economic Review, 61(1) , s. 105-125. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12418 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  We study how structural parameter variations affect the decision rules and economic inference. We provide diagnostics to detect parameter variations and to ascertain whether they are exogenous or endogenous. A constant parameter model poorly approximates a time‐varying data generating process (DGP), except in a handful of relevant cases. Linear approximations do not produce time‐varying decision rules; higher‐order approximations can do this only if parameter disturbances are treated as decision rule coefficients. Structural responses are time invariant regardless of order of approximation. Adding endogenous variations to the parameter controlling leverage in Gertler and Karadi's model substantially improves the fit of the model.

• Gianfreda, Angelica; Ravazzolo, Francesco & Rossini, Luca (2020)
  Comparing the forecasting performances of linear models for electricity prices with high RES penetration

  International Journal of Forecasting, 36(3) , s. 974-986. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.11.002 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  We compare alternative univariate versus multivariate models and frequentist versus Bayesian autoregressive and vector autoregressive specifications for hourly day-ahead electricity prices, both with and without renewable energy sources. The accuracy of point and density forecasts is inspected in four main European markets (Germany, Denmark, Italy, and Spain) characterized by different levels of renewable energy power generation. Our results show that the Bayesian vector autoregressive specifications with exogenous variables dominate other multivariate and univariate specifications in terms of both point forecasting and density forecasting.

• Geys, Benny; Connolly, Sara Jane, Kassim, Hussein & Murdoch, Zuzana (2020)
  Follow the Leader? Leader Succession and Staff Attitudes in Public Sector Organizations.

  Public Administration Review, 80(4) , s. 555-564. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/puar.13189 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Public sector organizations face regular turnover in top leadership positions. Yet little is known about how such changes affect staff attitudes. The authors argue that top leader succession may influence staff attitudes, particularly when new leaders are “outsiders” and/or subordinates interact regularly with their leaders. Using a unique two-wave survey conducted within the European Commission in 2008 and 2014, this analysis tests these propositions by studying the same individuals before and after shifts in top political (commissioner) and administrative (director-general) positions. The study shows that leadership succession can trigger meaningful shifts in subordinates’ stated attitudes regarding the European Commission’s supranational identity. These findings are important because staff attitudes about organizational values and aims represent a key driver of individual and organizational performance.

• Daniele, Gianmarco; Galetta, Sergio & Geys, Benny (2020)
  Abandon Ship? Party Brands and Politicians’ Responses to a Political Scandal

  Journal of Public Economics, 184(April) Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2020.104172 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Political scandals often trigger responses from voters and the implicated politicians. In this article, we extend the analysis to politicians who are only indirectly affected by a scandal through their affiliation with the involved party. Overcoming endogeneity concerns by analyzing the local implications of the largest national scandal in recent Italian history (“Clean Hands”), our main results show that local politicians withdraw support from incumbents in parties hit by Clean Hands – inducing early government dissolutions in such municipalities. Consistent with these municipality-level findings, we then illustrate that local politicians from the implicated parties exhibit lower re-running rates and higher rates of party switching in the short term. In the medium term, we find that corruption and voter turnout are lower in competitive municipalities ‘treated’ with a mayor from the implicated parties during Clean Hands. Moreover, medium-term upward career mobility of local politicians from the implicated parties benefited from party switching.

• Straume, Hans-Martin; Anderson, James L., Asche, Frank & Gaasland, Ivar (2020)
  Delivering the goods: The determinants of Norwegian seafood exports

  Marine Resource Economics, 35(1) , s. 83-96. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1086/707067 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Seafood is the world’s most traded food product. In recent years, aquaculture has become an increasingly important part of seafood production, facilitating increased trade. However, despite evidence that fish farmers have better ability to target markets and ship their seafood through more efficient supply chains (due to the higher degree of control with the production process), little attention has been given to the fact that this is likely to influence trade patterns as well. This article investigates if trade margins for aquaculture products differ from trade in wild seafood products along three margins of trade, in addition to total export value on export data for Norway, the world’s second largest seafood exporting country. The results indicate aquaculture products are different. In particular, aquaculture products are influenced by more factors than fisheries products (such as transportation costs and per-unit shipment costs), highlighting another dimension where the control of the production process can be used to improve competitiveness. Moreover, exports of aquaculture products increase with a country’s wealth level, reflecting producers’ ability to target higher paying markets.

• Furlanetto, Francesco; Gelain, Paolo & Sanjani, Marzie Taheri (2020)
  Output gap, monetary policy trade-offs, and financial frictions

  Review of economic dynamics, 41 Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.red.2020.07.004 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  This paper investigates how the presence of pervasive financial frictions and large financial shocks changes the optimal monetary policy prescriptions and the estimated dynamics in a New Keynesian model. We find that financial factors affect the optimal policy only to some extent. A policy of nominal stabilization (with a particular focus on targeting wage inflation) is still the optimal policy, although the central bank is now unable to fully stabilize economic activity around its potential level. In contrast, the presence of financial frictions and financial shocks crucially changes the size and shape of the estimated output gap and the relative importance of different shocks in driving economic fluctuations, with financial shocks absorbing explanatory power from labor supply shocks.

• Bizzotto, Jacopo; Rudiger, Jesper & Vigier, Adrien Henri (2020)
  Testing, disclosure and approval

  Journal of Economic Theory, 187 Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2020.105002 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Certifiers often base their decisions on a mixture of information, some of which is voluntarily disclosed by applicants, and some of which they acquire by way of tests or otherwise. We study the interplay between the information acquisition of certifiers and the information disclosure of applicants. We show that the inability of a certifier to commit to the amount of information to be acquired can result in a reduction of information disclosed. Among other consequences, given the choice between two information acquisition technologies, the certifier may prefer to commit to the inferior technology, in the sense of being either more expensive or less accurate.

• Almås, Ingvild; Kotsadam, Andreas, Moen, Espen Rasmus & Røed, Knut (2020)
  The Economics of Hypergamy

  The Journal of human resources, Doi: https://doi.org/10.3368/jhr.58.3.1219-10604R1 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Partner selection is a vital feature of human behavior with important consequences for individuals, families, and society. We use the term hypergamy to describe a phenomenon whereby there is a tendency for husbands to be of higher rank within the male earnings capacity distribution than their wives are within the female distribution. Such patterns are difficult to verify empirically because earnings are both a cause and an effect of the mating process. Using parental earnings rank as a predetermined measure of earnings capacity to solve the simultaneity problem, we show that hypergamy is an important feature of today’s mating patterns in one of the most gender-equal societies in the world, namely Norway. Through its influence on household specialization, we argue that hypergamy may explain parts of the remaining gender wage gap.

• Borge, Lars-Erik; Steigum, Erling & Strandenes, Siri Pettersen (2020)
  Artikkel om ny teknologi, produktivitet og renter vant prisen for 2019

  [Professional Article]. Samfunnsøkonomen, (Nr. 1) , s. 35-36.

• Concha, Ursula Alejandra Landazuri; Oglend, Atle, Steen, Marie & Straume, Hans-Martin (2020)
  Salmon trout, the forgotten cousin?

  Aquaculture Economics & Management, 25(2) Doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/13657305.2020.1857469 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  This study investigates potential economic reasons why the production of trout is maintained in Norway by analyzing prices and production for Norwegian Atlantic salmon and trout. The species Atlantic salmon dominates the global salmon market, but its two largest producers, Norway and Chile also farm in sea pens significant quantities of large rainbow trout (as opposed to portion-sized Rainbow trout farmed in freshwaters in other parts of the World, e.g., Iran, Peru, Turkey, and others). Suggesting that these trout have some attributes that make it a useful complement to Atlantic salmon. We investigate development in supply volumes of these species and conduct a cointegration analysis using monthly prices from 2000 to 2018. The results show that the markets for fresh and frozen rainbow trout are tightly integrated with fresh Atlantic salmon, and, where the latter is a price leader. This means that many consumers consider the two products as substitutes, with no clear preferences. There is no apparent productivity argument for the continued production of rainbow trout vis-à-vis Atlantic salmon. However, there may exist a fringe of consumers that prefer its characteristics, motivating firms to maintain its production as a means of diversification.

• Harang, Fabian Andsem & Mayorcas, Avi (2020)
  Pathwise regularisation of singular interacting particle systems and their mean field limits

  Stochastic Processes and their Applications, 159, s. 499-540. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.spa.2023.02.005

• Gabrielsen, Tommy Staahl; Moen, Espen Rasmus & Nilssen, Tore (2020)
  Prisdiskriminering i dagligvarebransjen

  Samfunnsøkonomen, 34(3) , s. 21-30. - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  INNLEDNING Det har foregått en intens diskusjon den siste tiden om hvorvidt det bør innføres et forbud mot prisdiskriminering på leverandørnivå i dagligvaremarkedet. Kjede har stått mot kjede, professor mot professor. Det er utarbeidet en rekke rapporter og innspill på oppdrag fra både bransjeaktører og myndigheter. Vi har fått i oppdrag av Nærings- og fiskeridepartementet å gjennomgå de innspill og rapporter som er kommet i saken, og vurdere argumentene som er fremsatt for og mot inngrep mot prisdiskriminering. Videre er vi bedt om å komme med vår anbefaling om slike inngrep. Blant de mange innspillene identifiserte vi tre viktige konstellasjoner som representative for ulike syn i debatten. Den første er Foros og Kind som har produsert en rekke innspill og rapporter på oppdrag fra advokatfirmaet BAHR og Rema 1000. Argumentene i disse rapportene oppfatter vi som i favør av å regulere – eller i alle fall gripe inn mot – ulike innkjøpspriser (Foros og Kind, 2018a, b; 2019a, b; Foros, Kind og Shaffer, 2018). De som tydeligst argumenterer mot å legge restriksjoner på innkjøpsprisene, er Oslo Economics (2019), skrevet på oppdrag fra NorgesGruppen; se også Bergh m. fl. (2020). Den tredje sentrale rapporten er Johansen og Straume (2019), skrevet på oppdrag fra Konkurransetilsynet. Denne rapporten framhever, i større grad enn de andre, usikkerheten rundt forventede effekter av å regulere eller gripe inn mot ulike innkjøpspriser. Den plasserer seg derfor et sted mellom Foros og Kind og Oslo Economics, men kanskje noe nærmere den siste.

• Karlman, Markus Johan; Kinnerud, Karin & Kragh-Sørensen, Kasper (2020)
  Costly reversals of bad policies: The case of the mortgage interest deduction

  Review of economic dynamics, 40 Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.red.2020.08.003 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  This paper measures the welfare effects of removing the mortgage interest deduction under a variety of implementation scenarios. To this end, we build a life-cycle model with heterogeneous households calibrated to the U.S. economy, which features long-term mortgages and costly refinancing. In line with previous research, we find that most households would prefer to be born into an economy without the deductibility. However, when we incorporate transitional dynamics, less than forty percent of households are in favor of a reform and the average welfare effect is negative. This result holds under a number of removal designs.

• Grytten, Jostein Ivar; Skau, Irene & Sørensen, Rune Jørgen (2020)
  Who dies early? Education, mortality and causes of death in Norway

  Social Science and Medicine, 245 Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socscimed.2019.112601 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  We estimated the effects of education on mortality and causes of death in Norway. We identified causal effects by exploiting the staggered implementation of a school reform that increased the length of compulsory education from seven to nine years. The municipality-level education data were combined with complete records of all deaths from 1960 to 2015 from the Norwegian Cause of Death Registry. These data covered the entire life span of persons aged 16–64. One additional year of education caused a reduction in mortality of about 10% for men. The effect was negligible for women. For men, a large part of the effect was due to fewer accidental deaths. We suggest two explanations for this finding. First, there are differences in risk-taking behaviour between people with a high level of education and those with a low level. Second, more education leads to upward occupational mobility. This mobility is mainly from occupations for which the risk of accidents is high to occupations for which the risk is low. Our results supported the fundamental cause theory. This is because education had a stronger effect on mortality for causes of death that are preventable than for causes of death that are not preventable. More education had no effect on the probability of dying of diseases that were amenable to medical intervention only. This gives some support to our results that patients are treated equally, independent of their level of education. This may be due to the large public involvement in financing and provision of health services.

• Holm, Martin Blomhoff; Fagereng, Andreas, Guiso, Luigi & Pistaferri, Luigi (2020)
  K-returns to Education

  [Professional Article]. Centre for Economic Policy Research. Discussion papers,

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  We exploit a school reform that increased the length of compulsory schooling in Norway in the 1960s to study the causal effect of formal general education on returns on wealth (k-returns). OLS estimates reveal a strong, positive and statistically significant correlation between education and returns on individual net worth. This effect disappears in IV regressions, implying that general education has no causal effect on individual performance in capital markets, whose heterogeneity largely reflects non-acquired ability. On the contrary, we find that education causes higher returns in the labor market (l-returns). We speculate about possible rationales for this important asymmetry.

• Halvorsen, Kristin; Helgesen, Vidar, Arnstad, Ada Johanna, Bjørlo, Alfred, Bjørnland, Hilde C, Gjørv, Alexandra Bech, Heggelund, Stefan, Holden, Steinar, Lund, Diderik, Lunde, Geir Inge, Osmundsen, Terje, Nøstbakken, Linda, Schjelderup, Harald, Sivertsen, Eirik & Sundland, Siren (2020)
  Raskere klimaomstilling. Redusert risiko. Ny politikk for Norge i en verden som når Parismålene. Rapport fra klimaomstillingsutvalget.

  [Report Research]. Regjeringen

• Holden, Steinar; Bjørnland, Hilde C, Brasch, Thomas Rolf Lydersen Lystad von, Løken, Katrine Vellesen, Sæther, Erik Magnus, Torstensen, Kjersti Næss & Torvik, Ragnar (2020)
  Covid-19 – Analyse av økonomiske tiltak, insentiver for vekst og omstilling

  [Report Research]. Finansdepartementet

• Holden, Steinar; Bjørnland, Hilde C, Brasch, Thomas Rolf Lydersen Lystad von, Torstensen, Kjersti Næss, Magnussen, Jon, Sæther, Erik Magnus, Aavitsland, Preben, Røttingen, John-Arne & Løken, Katrine Vellesen (2020)
  Covid-19 – samfunnsøkonomisk vurdering av smitteverntiltak – andre rapport

  [Report Research]. Helsedirektoratet

• Grønneberg, Steffen; Moss, Jonas & Foldnes, Njål (2020)
  Partial identification of latent correlations with binary data

  Psychometrika, 85, s. 1028-1051. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11336-020-09737-y - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  The tetrachoric correlation is a popular measure of association for binary data and estimates the correlation of an underlying normal latent vector. However, when the underlying vector is not normal, the tetrachoric correlation will be different from the underlying correlation. Since assuming underlying normality is often done on pragmatic and not substantial grounds, the estimated tetrachoric correlation may therefore be quite different from the true underlying correlation that is modeled in structural equation modeling. This motivates studying the range of latent correlations that are compatible with given binary data, when the distribution of the latent vector is partly or completely unknown. We show that nothing can be said about the latent correlations unless we know more than what can be derived from the data. We identify an interval constituting all latent correlations compatible with observed data when the marginals of the latent variables are known. Also, we quantify how partial knowledge of the dependence structure of the latent variables affect the range of compatible latent correlations. Implications for tests of underlying normality are briefly discussed.

• Natvik, Gisle James & Grisse, Christian (2020)
  Sovereign debt crises and cross-country assistance

  Oxford Economic Papers, 74(1) , s. 178-193. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1093/oep/gpaa019 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  We provide a parsimonious framework to study the interplay between cross-country assistance and expectations-driven sovereign debt crises. Our framework extends the traditional single-country model of how multiple perfect-foresight equilibria are possible when a sovereign attempts to service public debt. The extension is that a self-interested ‘safe’ country may choose to assist a ‘risky’ country which is prone to default. Investors internalize the potential for assistance when lending to fragile countries. If the safe country cannot commit to fixed cross-country transfers or rule them out completely, assistance improves equilibrium outcomes only if the risky country is fundamentally insolvent in the sense that it cannot repay existing debt at the risk-free interest rate. If a default requires pessimistic expectations, an incentive-compatible (IC) assistance policy has adverse side effects.

• Asche, Frank; Oglend, Atle & Straume, Hans-Martin (2020)
  Tools of the trade: trade flexibility with respect to margins and buyers

  Empirical Economics, 61(1959–1983) , s. 1-25. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-020-01923-2 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Access to highly disaggregated trade data allows for a more nuanced investigation of different margins of trade, and the factors known to influence them. In this paper, the number of importers and shipments to each importer is investigated together with the more traditional margins. Potential explanatory factors of these trade margins are combined from three literature strands in addition to the standard gravity variables; firm productivity, per-unit shipment costs and country-specific trade costs. The empirical results show, not unexpectedly, that insights from all these different strands of literature influence trade margins significantly. In particular, the number of shipments per importer increases with distance, degree of remoteness and per-shipment cost, and the number of importers decreases with the distance, remoteness and per-unit shipping cost. This indicates that increased trade costs make exporters economize in existing networks. Finally, disaggregating the data into three main product categories using Rauch’s classification, trade patterns are shown to vary by product group.

• Maurseth, Per Botolf (2019)
  ICT, Growth and Happiness

  Digitalisation and Development: Issues for India and Beyond, , s. 31-86. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-9996-1_2

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  This chapter reviews two strands of literature. The first is on Information and Communication Technology (ICT) and growth. The increasing role of ICTs came together with stagnating growth rates in many countries. This has been denoted the Solow paradox. During the dot-com era from the mid-1990s, many believed that the paradox was solved. Growth rates increased, and the Internet became pervasive. The great recession has been followed by lower growth in Europe and the USA and a return of the Solow paradox. Evidence indicates that the share of Internet users in countries' populations had a positive effect on growth in the 1990s, but that this effect vanished for developed countries after 2000. The second strand of literature is a heterogeneous research tradition that relates ICT not to income and growth, but to human well-being. That literature indicates positive (as well as some negative) effects of ICT and the Internet on people's happiness. Some new evidence indicates that the share of Internet users in populations in a panel of countries is positively related to average happiness.

• Larsen, Erling Røed (2019)
  Menneskelige klynger skaper vekst, Formue 1/2019, s 21 – 27

  [Popular Science Article]. Formue, 1, s. 21-27.

• Andersen, Jørgen Juel & Heggedal, Tom-Reiel (2019)
  Political Rents and Voter Information in Search Equilibrium

  Games and Economic Behavior, 114, s. 146-168. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2019.01.006 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Political parties commited to grab rents may run for election, and even win, if citizens are uninformed. But, how is the political equilibrium affected if citizens can mitigate this information problem through costly information search? We propose a political equilibrium theory with endogenous information search and turnout. We show that: (i) the political equilibrium generates political uncertainty characterized by a distribution of rent policies; (ii) the expectation of this rent distribution is inversely U-shaped in the information search cost; (iii) turnout is lower and rents are higher the more proportional is the electoral system.

• Sucarrat, Genaro (2019)
  The log-GARCH model via ARMA representations

  Financial mathematics, volatility and covariance modelling, , s. 336-359. Doi: https://doi.org/10.4324/9781315162737-14

• Foldnes, Njål & Olsson, Ulf H. (2019)
  The choice of normal-theory weight matrix when computing robust standard errors in confirmatory factor analysis

  Structural Equation Modeling, , s. 1-15. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/10705511.2019.1600408 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Robust standard errors are of central importance in confirmatory factor models. In calculating these statistics a central ingredient is the inverse of the asymptotic covariance matrix of second-order moments calculated under the assumption of normality. Currently, two ways of estimating this matrix are employed in software packages. One approach uses the sample covariance matrix, the other the model-implied covariance matrix. Previous research based on a small confirmatory factor model demonstrated that the latter approach yielded a slight improvement in standard error performance. The present study argues theoretically that the discrepancy between the two approaches increases in models where there are few model parameters relative to p(p+1)/2, where p is the number of observed variables. We present simulation results that support this claim, in both small and large correctly specified models, across a large variety of non-normal conditions. We recommend the model-implied covariance matrix for robust standard error computation.

• Bjørnland, Hilde C; Thorsrud, Leif Anders & Zahiri, Sepideh Khayati (2019)
  Do Central Banks Respond Timely to Developments in the Global Economy?

  Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12335 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Our analysis suggests; they do not! We arrive at this conclusion by showing that revisions to the published interest rate path projections from the central banks in New Zealand, Norway and Sweden can be predicted by timely and forward‐looking international indicators. Furthermore, using individual country and Panel VARs, identified with an external instrument method, we show that the policy surprises induced by the predictable revisions likely contain information about how the central banks assess past, current and future economic conditions and thereby leads to a positive co‐movement between the interest rate and both financial markets and the macroeconomy.

• Foldnes, Njål & Grønneberg, Steffen (2019)
  Pernicious Polychorics: The Impact and Detection of Underlying Non-normality

  Structural Equation Modeling, Doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/10705511.2019.1673168 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Ordinal data in social science statistics are often modeled as discretizations of a multivariate normal vector. In contrast to the continuous case, where SEM estimation is also consistent under non-normality, violation of underlying normality in ordinal SEM may lead to inconsistent estimation. In this article, we illustrate how underlying non-normality induces bias in polychoric estimates and their standard errors. This bias is strongly affected by how we discretize. It is therefore important to consider tests of underlying multivariate normality. In this study we propose a parametric bootstrap test for this purpose. Its performance relative to the test of Maydeu-Olivares is evaluated in a Monte Carlo study. At realistic sample sizes, the bootstrap exhibited substantively better Type I error control and power than the Maydeu-Olivares test in ordinal data with ten dimensions or higher. R code for the bootstrap test is provided.

• Maurseth, Per Botolf (2019)
  Patenter og offentlig innovasjon

  [Professional Article]. Agenda Magasin,

• Geys, Benny & Sørensen, Rune Jørgen (2019)
  The Impact of Women above the Political Glass Ceiling: Evidence from a Norwegian Executive Gender Quota Reform

  Electoral Studies: an international journal on voting and electoral systems and strategy, 60, s. 1-10. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2019.102050 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Women have historically been underrepresented in democratic assemblies, particularly in top positions with executive powers. Most gender quota reforms address this by mandating a more equal gender representation on election lists. In contrast, a 1992 legislative reform in Norway required parties' candidate lists for the local executive board to comprise at least 40% politicians of each gender. This legal change was not only exogenously imposed by a higher-level government, but also generated distinct quota-induced constraints across Norwegian municipalities. We exploit the resulting variation in ‘quota shocks’ using a difference-in-differences design to identify the quota's effect on women's political representation as well as local public policies. We find that more women enter the executive board after the reform, though spill-overs on women's representation in the local council and on the probability of a female mayor or top administrator are weak. We also find no consistent evidence for shifts in public policies due to increased representation of women in positions with executive powers.

• Grønneberg, Steffen & Foldnes, Njål (2019)
  A problem with discretizing Vale-Maurelli in simulation studies

  Psychometrika, 84(2) , s. 554-561. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11336-019-09663-8 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Previous influential simulation studies investigate the effect of underlying non-normality in ordinal data using the Vale–Maurelli (VM) simulation method. We show that discretized data stemming from the VM method with a prescribed target covariance matrix are usually numerically equal to data stemming from discretizing a multivariate normal vector. This normal vector has, however, a different covariance matrix than the target. It follows that these simulation studies have in fact studied data stemming from normal data with a possibly misspecified covariance structure. This observation affects the interpretation of previous simulation studies.

• Foldnes, Njål & Grønneberg, Steffen (2019)
  On Identification and Non-normal Simulation in Ordinal Covariance and Item Response Models

  Psychometrika, 84(4) , s. 1000-1017. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11336-019-09688-z - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  A standard approach for handling ordinal data in covariance analysis such as structural equation modeling is to assume that the data were produced by discretizing a multivariate normal vector. Recently, concern has been raised that this approach may be less robust to violation of the normality assumption than previously reported. We propose a new perspective for studying the robustness toward distributional misspecification in ordinal models using a class of non-normal ordinal covariance models. We show how to simulate data from such models, and our simulation results indicate that standard methodology is sensitive to violation of normality. This emphasizes the importance of testing distributional assumptions in empirical studies. We include simulation results on the performance of such tests.

• Galle, Simon (2019)
  Competition, Financial Constraints and Misallocation: Plant-level Evidence from Indian Manufacturing

  [Popular Science Article]. PEDL Research Notes,

• Maurseth, Per Botolf (2019)
  NATOs opprustning

  [Professional Article]. Agenda Magasin,

• Maurseth, Per Botolf (2019)
  Er eiendomsskatt en fornuftig skattetype?

  [Professional Article]. Agenda Magasin,

• Cross, Jamie & Poon, Aubrey (2019)
  On the Contribution of International Shocks in Australian Business Cycle Fluctuations

  Empirical Economics, Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-019-01752-y - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  What proportion of Australian business cycle fluctuations are caused by international shocks? We address this question by estimating a panel VAR model that has time-varying parameters and a common stochastic volatility factor. The time-varying parameters capture the inter-temporal nature of Australia’s various bilateral trade relationships, while the common stochastic volatility factor captures various episodes of volatility clustering among macroeconomic shocks, e.g., the 1997/98 Asian Financial Crisis and the 2007/08 Global Financial Crisis. Our main result is that international shocks from Australia’s five largest trading partners: China, Japan, the EU, the USA and the Republic of Korea, have caused around half of all Australian business cycle fluctuations over the past two decades. We also find important changes in the relative importance of each country’s economic impact. For instance, China’s positive contribution increased throughout the mining boom of the 2000s, while the overall US influence has almost halved since the 1990s

• Marcoulides, Katerina; Foldnes, Njål & Grønneberg, Steffen (2019)
  Assessing Model Fit in Structural Equation Modeling Using Appropriate Test Statistics

  Structural Equation Modeling, , s. 1-11. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/10705511.2019.1647785

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  The assessment of model fit has received widespread interest by researchers in the structural equation modeling literature for many years. Various model fit test statistics have been suggested for conducting this assessment. Selecting an appropriate test statistic in order to evaluate model fit, however, can be difficult as the selection depends on the distributional characteristics of the sampled data, the magnitude of the sample size, and/or the proposed model features. The purpose of this paper is to present a selection procedure that can be used to algorithmically identify the best test statistic and simplify the whole assessment process. The procedure is illustrated using empirical data along with an easy to use computerized implementation.

• Fagereng, Andreas; Holm, Martin Blomhoff, Moll, Benjamin & Natvik, Gisle James (2019)
  Saving Behavior Across the Wealth Distribution: The Importance of Capital Gains

  [Report Research]. NBER Working paper

• Altavilla, Carlo; Canova, Fabio & Ciccarelli, Matteo (2019)
  Mending the broken link: Heterogeneous bank lending rates and monetary policy pass-through

  Journal of Monetary Economics, 110(April) , s. 1-18. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2019.01.001 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  We analyse the pass-through of monetary policy measures to lending rates to households and firms in the euro area using novel bank-level datasets. Banks’ characteristics such as the capital ratio, exposure to domestic sovereign debt, percentage of non-performing loans and stability of funding structure are responsible for the heterogeneity in the pass-through of conventional monetary policy changes. The location of a bank is irrelevant. Non-standard measures reduce lending rate heterogeneities. Banks located in financially stressed countries and with weak balance sheets are most affected. Banks’ lending margins have fallen considerably.

• Foldnes, Njål; Marcoulides, George A. & Olsson, Ulf H. (2019)
  Examining the Performance of the Modified ADF Goodness-of-fit Test Statistic in Structural Equation Models

  Structural Equation Modeling, 26(5) Doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/10705511.2019.1586545 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  The asymptotically distribution-free (ADF) test statistic depends on very mild distributional assumptions and is theoretically superior to many other so-called robust tests available in structural equation modeling. The ADF test, however, often leads to model overrejection even at modest sample sizes. To overcome its poor small-sample performance, a family of robust test statistics obtained by modifying the ADF statistics was recently proposed. This study investigates by simulation the performance of the new modified test statistics. The results revealed that although a few of the test statistics adequately controlled Type I error rates in each of the examined conditions, most performed quite poorly. This result underscores the importance of choosing a modified test statistic that performs well for specific examined conditions. A parametric bootstrap method is proposed for identifying such a best-performing modified test statistic. Through further simulation it is shown that the proposed bootstrap approach performs well

• Rudiger, Jesper & Vigier, Adrien Henri (2019)
  Learning about analysts

  Journal of Economic Theory, 180, s. 304-335. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2019.01.001 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  We examine an analyst with career concerns making cheap talk recommendations to a sequence of traders, each of whom possesses private information concerning the analyst's ability. The recommendations of the analyst influence asset prices that are then used to evaluate the analyst. An endogeneity problem thus arises. In particular, if the reputation of the analyst is sufficiently high then an incompetent but strategic analyst is able to momentarily hide her type. An equilibrium in which the market eventually learns the analyst type always exists. However, under some conditions, an equilibrium also exists in which the incompetent analyst is able to hide her type forever.

• Moen, Espen Rasmus; Nenov, Plamen & Sniekers, Florian (2019)
  Buying First or Selling First in Housing Markets

  Journal of the European Economic Association, Doi: https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvz069 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Housing transactions by moving homeowners take two steps—buying a new house and selling the old one. This paper argues that the transaction sequence decisions of moving homeowners have important effects on the housing market. Moving homeowners prefer to buy first whenever there are more buyers than sellers in the market. However, this congests the buyer side of the market and increases the buyer–seller ratio, further strengthening the incentives of other moving owners to buy first. This endogenous strategic complementarity leads to multiple steady state equilibria and large fluctuations, which are broadly consistent with stylized facts about the housing cycle.

• Chodorow-Reich, Gabriel; Nenov, Plamen & Simsek, Alp (2019)
  Stock Market Wealth and the Real Economy: A Local Labor Market Approach

  NBER Working Paper Series, Doi: https://doi.org/10.3386/w25959

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  We provide evidence on the stock market consumption wealth effect by using a local labor market analysis and regional heterogeneity in stock market wealth. An increase in local stock wealth driven by aggregate stock prices increases local employment and payroll in nontradable industries and in total, while having no effect on employment in tradable industries. In a model with consumption wealth effects and geographic heterogeneity, these responses imply a marginal propensity to consume out of a dollar of stock wealth of 2.8 cents per year. We also use the model to quantify the aggregate effects of a stock market wealth shock when monetary policy is passive. A 20% increase in stock valuations, unless countered by monetary policy, increases the aggregate labor bill by at least 0.85% and aggregate hours by at least 0.28% two years after the shock.

• Saris, Willem E. & Satorra, Albert (2019)
  Comparing BSEM and EUPD Estimates for Two-Group SB-MTMM Experiments

  Structural Equation Modeling, Doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/10705511.2019.1576046

• Cox, Gary W.; Fiva, Jon H. & Smith, Daniel Markham (2019)
  Parties, Legislators, and the Origins of Proportional Representation

  Comparative Political Studies, 52, s. 102-133. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414018762369 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  A prominent line of theories holds that proportional representation (PR) was introduced in many European democracies by a fragmented bloc of conservative parties seeking to preserve their legislative seat shares after franchise extension and industrialization increased the vote base of socialist parties. In contrast to this “seat-maximization” account, we focus on how PR affected party leaders’ control over nominations, thereby enabling them to discipline their followers and build more cohesive parties. We explore this “party-building” account in the case of Norway, using roll call data from six reform proposals in 1919. We show that leaders were more likely to vote in favor of PR than rank-and-file members, even controlling for the parties’ expected seat payoffs and the district-level socialist electoral threat facing individual legislators. Moreover, using within-legislator variation, we show that the internal cohesion of parties increased significantly after the introduction of PR

• Furlanetto, Francesco; Sveen, Tommy & Weinke, Lutz (2019)
  Technology and the two margins of labor adjustment: A New Keynesian perspective

  The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, 20(1) , s. 1-18. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1515/bejm-2018-0217

  Vis sammendrag

  Canova et al. [Canova, F., J. D. López-Salido, and C. Michelacci. 2010. “The Effects of Technology Shocks on Hours and Output: A Robustness Analysis.” Journal of Applied Econometrics 25: 755–773; Canova, F., J. D. López-Salido, and C. Michelacci. 2012. “The Ins and Outs of Unemployment: An Analysis Conditional on Technology Shocks.” The Economic Journal 123: 515–539] estimate the dynamic response of labor market variables to technological shocks. They show that investment-specific shocks imply predominantly an adjustment along the intensive margin (i.e., hours per worker), whereas for neutral shocks the largest share of the adjustment takes place along the extensive margin (i.e., employment). In this paper we develop a New Keynesian model featuring capital accumulation, two margins of labor adjustment and a hiring cost. The model is used to analyze a novel economic mechanism to explain that evidence.

• Steigum, Erling (2019)
  Nasjonalbudsjettet 2020: Mot et bedre rammeverk for den økonomiske politikken

  [Professional Article]. Samfunnsøkonomen, (Nr. 5) , s. 35-36.

• Titl, Vitezslav & Geys, Benny (2019)
  Political Donations and the Allocation of Public Procurement Contracts

  European Economic Review, 111, s. 443-458. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2018.11.004 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  We study whether and when firms’ donations to political parties induce favouritism in public procurement allocations. Our analysis builds on a unique, comprehensive dataset covering all public procurement contracts and all corporate donations to major political parties in the Czech Republic over the period from 2007 to 2014, and exploits changes in political control over regional governments within this period for identification purposes. We find that firms donating 10% more to a political party gaining (losing) power witness an increase (decrease) in the value of their public procurement contracts by 0.5–0.6%. Importantly, and in line with theoretical expectations, these effects only arise for contracts allocated under less restrictive procurement allocation processes. Assessing the underlying mechanisms, we show that donating firms receive more small contracts allocated under less regulated procurement procedures, face less competition in more regulated and open procurement procedures, and tend to win with bids further above the estimated cost of the procurement contract.

• Straume, Hans-Martin; Landazuri-Tveteraas, Ursula Alejandra & Oglend, Atle (2019)
  Insights from transaction data: Norwegian aquaculture exports

  Aquaculture Economics & Management, Doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/13657305.2019.1683914 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  This paper discusses how transaction data can be used to shed light on trade dynamics in seafood exports, with Norwegian salmon exports as the case. There is a large literature on exports and imports of salmon between countries, but less is known about how the heterogeneity of exporters and importers relates to the aggregate data. We utilize transaction data for all exports of salmon in the period 2010–2014 and show that firms involved in salmon exports holds several of the characteristics that are commonly found in the international trade literature, but differs in some important dimensions. Most exporters of salmon connect to relatively many importers and serve many different destination markets. Short-lived trade relations are shown to account for a large share of export values.

• Oglend, Atle & Straume, Hans-Martin (2019)
  Futures market hedging efficiency in a new futures exchange: Effects of trade partner diversification

  Journal of futures markets, 40(4) , s. 617-631. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/fut.22088 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  This paper uses transaction data to examine hedging efficiency in a new futures exchange; the Fish Pool salmon futures exchange in Norway. The paper utilizes data on firm‐level exporter/importer transaction prices to quantify firm‐level futures hedging efficiency. This allows us to address heterogeneity in hedging efficiency and basis risk at the firm level. The main result of this paper shows that larger firms with greater trade partner diversification have lower basis risk. Such firms align their internal transaction price closer to the common spot price in the market, which encourages greater futures market participation. Results are discussed in light of recent declines in participation in the salmon futures exchange.

• Furlanetto, Francesco; Ravazzolo, Francesco & Sarferaz, Samad (2019)
  Identification of financial factors in economic fluctuations

  Economic Journal, 129(617) , s. 311-337. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12520 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  We estimate demand, supply, monetary, investment and financial shocks in a VAR identified with a minimum set of sign restrictions on US data. We find that financial shocks are major drivers of fluctuations in output, stock prices and investment but have a limited effect on inflation. In a second step, we disentangle shocks originating in the housing sector, shocks originating in credit markets and uncertainty shocks. In the extended set‐up, financial shocks are even more important and a leading role is played by housing shocks that have large and persistent effects on output.

• Caporin, Massimiliano; Natvik, Gisle James, Ravazzolo, Francesco & Magistris, Paolo Santucci de (2019)
  The bank-sovereign nexus: Evidence from a non-bailout episode

  Journal of Empirical Finance, 53(September) , s. 181-196. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2019.07.001 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  We explore the interplay between sovereign and bank credit risk in a setting where Danish authorities first let two Danish banks default and then left the country’s largest bank, Danske Bank, to recapitalize privately. We find that the correlation between bank and sovereign credit default swap (CDS) rates changed with these events. Following the non-bailout events, the sensitivity to external shocks, proxied by CDS rates on the European banking sector, declined both for Danske Bank and for Danish sovereign debt. After Danske Bank’s recapitalization, its exposure to the European banking sector reappeared while that did not happen for Danish sovereign debt. The decoupling between CDS rates on sovereign and private bank debt indicates that the vicious feedback loop between bank and sovereign risk weakened after the non-bailout policies were introduced.

• Eriksen, Eivind & Siqveland, Arvid (2019)
  The algebra of observables in noncommutative deformation theory

  Journal of Algebra, 547, s. 162-172. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jalgebra.2019.10.057 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  We consider the algebra O(M) of observables and the (formally) versal morphism η : A → O(M) defined by the noncommutative deformation functor DefM of a family M = {M1, . . . , Mr} of right modules over an associative k-algebra A. By the Generalized Burnside Theorem, due to Laudal, η is an isomorphism when A is finite dimensional, M is the family of simple A-modules, and k is an algebraically closed field. The purpose of this paper is twofold: First, we prove a form of the Generalized Burnside Theorem that is more general, where there is no assumption on the field k. Secondly, we prove that the O-construction is a closure operation when A is any finitely generated k-algebra and M is any family of finite dimensional A-modules, in the sense that ηB : B → OB(M) is an isomorphism when B = O(M) and M is considered as a family of B-modules.

• Oglend, Atle & Straume, Hans-Martin (2019)
  Pricing efficiency across destination markets for Norwegian salmon exports

  Aquaculture Economics & Management, 23(2) , s. 188-203. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/13657305.2018.1554722 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  This paper investigates how pricing efficiency of Norwegian salmon exports varies across destination market characteristics. Efficiency is defined as the rate at which individual transaction prices adjust to common market information, and is estimated by dynamic fixed effects panel models with parameters conditional on trade attributes using micro-level trade data. Our results show that contract type (Incoterms) used in transactions can be used to segment the Norwegian export markets into three types: (1) high-value trade to large distant markets, (2) medium-value trade to close high-income markets, and (3) lower-value large bulk trades to lower-income close markets. We find that pricing efficiency is lowest for committed trades over long distance using planes, and highest for less committed large bulk trades to close markets. Despite significant heterogeneity, the majority of salmon price variation (around ¾) is common, providing a clear justification for the representativeness of a salmon price index.

• Bjørnland, Hilde C; Thorsrud, Leif Anders & Torvik, Ragnar (2019)
  Dutch disease dynamics reconsidered

  European Economic Review, 119, s. 411-433. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2019.07.016 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  In this paper we develop the first model to incorporate the dynamic productivity consequences of both the spending effect and the resource movement effect of oil abundance. We show that doing so dramatically alters the conclusions drawn from earlier models of learning by doing (LBD) and the Dutch disease. In particular, the resource movement effect suggests that the growth effects of natural resources are likely to be positive, turning previous growth results in the literature relying on the spending effect on their head. We motivate the relevance of our approach by the example of a major oil producer, Norway. Empirically we find that the effects of an increase in the price of oil may resemble results found in the earlier Dutch disease literature, while the effects of increased oil activity increases productivity in most industries. Therefore, models that only focus on windfall gains due to increased spending potential from higher oil prices, would conclude – incorrectly based on our analysis – that the resource sector cannot be an engine of growth.

• Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv; Knutsen, Carl Henrik & Hermansen, Gudmund Horn (2019)
  Characterizing and Assessing Temporal Heterogeneity: Introducing a Change Point Framework, with Applications on the Study of Democratization

  [Report Research]. Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Institute

• McAlinn, Kenichiro; Aastveit, Knut Are, Nakajima, Jouchi & West, Mike (2019)
  Multivariate Bayesian Predictive Synthesis in Macroeconomic Forecasting

  Journal of the American Statistical Association, Doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.2019.1660171 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  We present new methodology and a case study in use of a class of Bayesian predictive synthesis (BPS) models for multivariate time series forecasting. This extends the foundational BPS framework to the multivariate setting, with detailed application in the topical and challenging context of multi-step macroeconomic forecasting in a monetary policy setting. BPS evaluates- sequentially and adaptively over time- varying forecast biases and facets of miscalibration of individual forecast densities for multiple time series, and- critically- their time-varying inter-dependencies. We define BPS methodology for a new class of dynamic multivariate latent factor models implied by BPS theory. Structured dynamic latent factor BPS is here motivated by the application context- sequential forecasting of multiple US macroeconomic time series with forecasts generated from several traditional econometric time series models. The case study highlights the potential of BPS to improve of forecasts of multiple series at multiple forecast horizons, and its use in learning dynamic relationships among forecasting models or agents.

• Cojocaru, Andreea-Laura; Asche, Frank, Pincinato, Ruth Beatriz & Straume, Hans-Martin (2019)
  Where are the fish landed? An analysis of landing plants in Norway

  Land Economics, 95(2) , s. 246-257. Doi: https://doi.org/10.3368/LE.95.2.246 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  A vast literature in fisheries economics focuses on drivers of fishers’ behavior with limited attention given to what happens once the fish are landed. This often strongly contrasts with a main policy focus on coastal communities, with fisheries management as an additional instrument in supporting livelihoods. This study shows that the number of Norwegian landing plants has been reduced in recent decades, and that quantity landed, annual plant operation time, and attracting smaller vessels decrease the probability of exit. Interestingly, plants in communities with additional landing locations have lower probabilities of exit, pointing to an industry cluster effect

• Borge, Lars-Erik; Steigum, Erling & Strandenes, Siri Pettersen (2019)
  Artikkel om individers kognitive ytelse vant prisen for 2018

  [Professional Article]. Samfunnsøkonomen, (Nr. 1) , s. 49-50.

• Harstad, Bård Gjul; Russo, Alessia & Lancia, Francesco (2019)
  Compliance Technology and Self-enforcing Agreements

  Journal of the European Economic Association, 17(1) , s. 1-29. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvy055 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  This paper analyzes a game in which countries repeatedly make emission and technology investment decisions. We derive the best equilibrium, that is, the Pareto-optimal subgame-perfect equilibrium, when countries are insufficiently patient for folk theorems to be relevant. Relative to the first best, the best equilibrium requires countries to overinvest in technologies that are green, that is, strategic substitutes for polluting, but to underinvest in adaptation and brown technologies, that is, strategic complements to polluting. Technological transfers and spillovers might discourage investments but can be necessary to motivate compliance with emissions when countries are heterogeneous

• Berge, Lars Ivar Oppedal; Bjorvatn, Kjetil, Galle, Simon, Miguel, Edward, Posner, Daniel, Tungodden, Bertil & Zhang, Kelly (2019)
  Ethnically Biased? Experimental Evidence from Kenya

  Journal of the European Economic Association, 18(1) Doi: https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvz003 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Ethnicity has been shown to shape political, social, and economic behavior in Africa, but the underlying mechanisms remain contested. We utilize lab experiments to isolate one mechanism—an individual’s bias in favor of coethnics and against non-coethnics—that has been central in both theory and in the conventional wisdom about the impact of ethnicity. We employ an unusually rich research design involving a large sample of 1,300 participants from Nairobi, Kenya; the collection of multiple rounds of experimental data with varying proximity to national elections; within-lab priming conditions; both standard and novel experimental measures of coethnic bias; and an implicit association test (IAT). We find very little evidence of an ethnic bias in the behavioral games, which runs against the common presumption of extensive coethnic bias among ordinary Africans and suggests that mechanisms other than a coethnic bias in preferences must account for the associations we see in the region between ethnicity and political, social and economic outcomes.

• Asche, Frank; Gaasland, Ivar, Straume, Hans-Martin & Vårdal, Erling (2019)
  Norwegian export of farmed salmon − trade costs and market concentration

  Applied Economics Letters, 27(2) , s. 145-149. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2019.1610702 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  While variation in unit value most commonly has been associated with quality in the trade literature, observed differences in prices between markets might also be explained by variation in market concentration and the degree of competition. Using transaction data on Norwegian exports of salmon, we introduce a Herfindahl index as a measure of competition in a standard gravity model. We find that competition typically is weaker in small and distant markets that due to high trade costs are served by relatively few firms. We argue that the anti-competitive impact of trade costs may explain price differentiation between markets even for homogeneous products.

• Larsen, Erling Røed (2019)
  Intra-Week Price Patterns in the Housing Market*

  The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 123(1) , s. 327-352. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/sjoe.12403

• Moen, Espen Rasmus; Wulfsberg, Fredrik & Aas, Øyvind Nilsen (2019)
  Price Dispersion and the Role of Stores

  The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 122(3) Doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/sjoe.12356 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  In this paper, we study price dispersion in the Norwegian retail market for 766 products across 4,297 stores over 60 months. Price dispersion for homogeneous products is significant and persistent, with a coefficient of variation of 37 percent for the median product. Price dispersion differs between product categories and over time. Store heterogeneity accounts for 30 percent of the observed variation in prices for the median product–month, and for around 50 percent for the sample as a whole. Price dispersion is still prevalent after correcting for store heterogeneity.

• Foldnes, Njål; Grønneberg, Steffen & Hermansen, Gudmund Horn (2018)
  Statistikk og Dataanalyse

  [Textbook]. Cappelen Damm Akademisk

• Steigum, Erling (2018)
  Moderne makroøkonomi

  [Textbook]. Gyldendal Norsk Forlag A/S

• Hansen, Robert (2018)
  Samfunnsøkonomi

  [Textbook]. BI Nettstudier

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2018)
  Hvor skal Oljefondet ligge?

  [Professional Article]. Samfunnsøkonomen, 32(2) , s. 23-29. - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

  Vis sammendrag

  Oljefondet forvaltes av Norges Bank Investment Management (NBIM). De siste ti årene har fondet gitt samme avkastning som indeksen det måles mot, etter at kostnadene ved driften er tatt hensyn til. Det er et meget bra resultat. Hvis vi gjør som Gjedrem-utvalget vil og oppretter et nytt særlovselskap for forvaltningen av Oljefondet, pådrar vi oss et prinsipal-agent problem vi ikke hadde tidligere. Legitimitet og tillit bygges ikke over natten.

• Larsen, Erling Røed (2018)
  Evolusjon, revolusjon og innovasjon: Hva skaper økonomisk vekst?,Formue 1/2018, s 8 – 17.

  [Popular Science Article]. Formue,

• Holm, Martin Blomhoff (2018)
  Consumption with liquidity constraints: An analytical characterization

  Economics Letters, 167(June) , s. 40-42. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2018.03.004 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  How do liquidity constraints affect households? This is a well-researched subject with remarkably few theoretical results. This paper bridges this gap by providing a closed form expression for consumption with liquidity constraints for a wide class of utility functions (HARA). Using this expression, I prove that the consumption function is strictly concave in wealth if a relevant liquidity constraint exists. Moreover, households respond to a tightening of the liquidity constraint by reducing consumption, becoming more sensitive to wealth changes, and having a “more” concave consumption function in wealth. These results thus provide theoretical underpinnings for how contractions in credit supply affect households

• Maurseth, Per Botolf (2018)
  Brain Drain or Brain Gain? The International Mobility of Talent and Innovation: New Evidence and Policy Implications - book essay

  [Professional Article]. Forum for Development Studies, Doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/08039410.2018.1550918 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

• Grønneberg, Steffen & Foldnes, Njål (2018)
  Testing Model Fit by Bootstrap Selection

  Structural Equation Modeling, Doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/10705511.2018.1503543 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Over the last few decades, many robust statistics have been proposed in order to assess the fit of structural equation models. To date, however, no clear recommendations have emerged as to which test statistic performs best. It is likely that no single statistic will universally outperform all contenders across all conditions of data, sample size, and model characteristics. In a real-world situation, a researcher must choose which statistic to report. We propose a bootstrap selection mechanism that identifies the test statistic that exhibits the best performance under the given data and model conditions among any set of candidates. This mechanism eliminates the ambiguity of the current practice and offers a wide array of test statistics available for reporting. In a Monte Carlo study, the bootstrap selector demonstrated promising performance in controlling Type I errors compared to current test statistics.

• Maurseth, Per Botolf (2018)
  The effect of the Internet on economic growth: Counter-evidence from cross-country panel data

  Economics Letters, 172, s. 74-77. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2018.08.034 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Choi and Yi (2009) found evidence that the Internet stimulated economic growth in the 1990–2000 period using cross-country panel data. When extending the period to 2015, similar regressions indicate negative and significant effects of the Internet on growth

• Fiva, Jon H. & Smith, Daniel M. (2018)
  Political dynasties and the incumbency advantage in party-centered environments

  American Political Science Review, 112(3) , s. 706-712. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055418000047 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  A handful of recent studies have investigated the causal effect of incumbency on dynasty formation in candidate-centered electoral contexts. We use candidate-level data and a regression discontinuity design to estimate the incumbency advantage and its relation to dynasty formation in the party-centered, closed-list, proportional-representation setting of Norway. The results indicate that the incumbency advantage exists even in this party-centered environment; however, in contrast to recent findings for the United States and the Philippines, we find no evidence that incumbency is important to the formation of dynasties. This finding underscores the need for more research into the role of internal party organizational networks in the perpetuation of political dynasties.

• Larsen, Vegard Høghaug & Thorsrud, Leif Anders (2018)
  The Value of News for Economic Developments

  Journal of Econometrics, 210(1) , s. 203-218. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2018.11.013

• Larsen, Erling Røed (2018)
  Can monetary policy revive the housing market in a crisis? Evidence from high-resolution data on Norwegian transactions

  Journal of Housing Economics, 42, s. 69-83. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhe.2018.01.002

  Vis sammendrag

  Studying a Norwegian high-resolution housing transaction data set, this article examines the link between the monetary policy reversal and the housing market upswing in the fall of 2008. I construct a hedonic time dummy price index and track changes over short time periods in order to inspect interruptions and turning-points. To control for seasonal effects, I compare price differences in 2008 with differences in years before and after. The evidence shows the existence of a pronounced house price index turn-around immediately after the monetary policy reversal was initiated. Plausible transmission mechanisms are established. Alternative exogenous causal factors are ruled out or appear implausible. An endogenous explanation is shown to be unlikely. The evidence thus suggests that the monetary policy reversal played a significant role in the housing market recovery.

• Grønneberg, Steffen & Holcblat, Benjamin (2018)
  On partial-sum processes of ARMAX residuals

  Annals of Statistics, 47(6) , s. 3216-3243. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1214/18-AOS1776 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  We establish general and versatile results regarding the limit behavior of the partial-sum process of ARMAX residuals. Illustrations include ARMA with seasonal dummies, misspecified ARMAX models with autocorrelated errors, nonlinear ARMAX models, ARMA with a structural break, a wide range of ARMAX models with infinite-variance errors, weak GARCH models and the consistency of kernel estimation of the density of ARMAX errors. Our results identify the limit distributions, and provide a general algorithm to obtain pivot statistics for CUSUM tests.

• Fjære, Jeanette S. & Sveen, Tommy (2018)
  Norges Bank Watch 2018: An independent Evaluation of Monetary Policy in Norway

  [Report Research]. Handelshøyskolen BI

  Vis sammendrag

  Each year the Centre for Monetary Economics (CME) at The Department of Economics, BI Norwegian Business School, appoints an independent group of experts to evaluate monetary policy in Norway. This year the committee consists of Jeanette Strøm Fjære, Macroeconomist at DnB Markets, and myself, Professor in Economics at BI Norwegian Business School. The committee is solely responsible for the report and the views therein. The report does not necessarily represent the views of the CME or of its members. The Ministry of Finance partly funds the Norges Bank Watch reports, which contain useful information and analyses for the Ministry’s evaluation of monetary policy presented each year in a White Paper to Parliament.

• Escribano, Alvaro & Sucarrat, Genaro (2018)
  Equation-by-equation estimation of multivariate periodic electricity price volatility

  Energy Economics, 74(August) , s. 287-298. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2018.05.017 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Electricity prices are characterised by strong autoregressive persistence, periodicity (e.g. intraday, day-of-the week and month-of-the-year effects), large spikes or jumps, GARCH and – as evidenced by recent findings – periodic volatility. We propose a multivariate model of volatility that decomposes volatility multiplicatively into a non-stationary (e.g. periodic) part and a stationary part with log-GARCH dynamics. Since the model belongs to the log-GARCH class, the model is robust to spikes or jumps, allows for a rich variety of volatility dynamics without restrictive positivity constraints, can be estimated equation-by-equation by means of standard methods even in the presence of feedback, and allows for Dynamic Conditional Correlations (DCCs) that can – optionally – be estimated subsequent to the volatilities. We use the model to study the hourly day-ahead system prices at Nord Pool, and find extensive evidence of periodic volatility and volatility feedback. We also find that volatility is characterised by (positive) leverage in one third of the hours, and that a DCC model provides a better fit of the conditional correlations than a Constant Conditional Correlation (CCC) model.

• Fiva, Jon H.; Folke, Olle & Sørensen, Rune Jørgen (2018)
  The Power of Parties: Evidence From Close Municipal Elections in Norway

  The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 120(1) , s. 3-30. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/sjoe.12229 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  We show that small shifts in representation can affect policy in proportional election systems. Using data from Norway, we find that a larger left-wing party leads to more property taxation, higher childcare spending, and lower elderly care spending, while local public goods appear to be a non-partisan issue. These effects are partly due to shifts in bloc majorities, and partly due to changes in the left–right position of the council, keeping the majority constant. The estimates on spending allocations are rather imprecise, but they are consistent with evidence on politicians' fiscal preferences and patterns in media attention.

• Gelain, Paolo; Lansing, Kevin & Natvik, Gisle James (2018)
  Explaining the Boom-Bust Cycle in the U.S. Housing Market: A Reverse-Engineering Approach

  Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 50(8) , s. 1751-1783. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12504

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  We use a quantitative asset pricing model to “reverse‐engineer” the sequences of shocks to housing demand and lending standards needed to replicate the boom–bust patterns in U.S. housing value and mortgage debt from 1993 to 2015. Conditional on the observed paths for U.S. real consumption growth, the real mortgage interest rate, and the supply of residential fixed assets, a specification with random walk expectations outperforms one with rational expectations in plausibly matching the patterns in the data. Counterfactual simulations show that shocks to housing demand, housing supply, and lending standards were important, but movements in the mortgage interest rate were not.

• Juelsrud, Ragnar Enger & Wold, Ella Getz (2018)
  Risk-weighted capital requirements and portfolio rebalancing

  Journal of Financial Intermediation, Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfi.2018.10.002 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  We use a 2013 Norwegian policy reform to study how banks react to higher capital requirements and how these adjustments transmit to the real economy. Using bank balance sheet data, we document that banks raise capital ratios by reducing risk-weighted assets. Most of the reduction in risk-weighted assets is accounted for by a reduction in average risk weights. Consistent with this reduction in risk, we document a substantial decline in credit supply to the corporate sector relative to the household sector. We also show that banks react to higher requirements by increasing interest rates, consistent with the reduction in corporate credit growth being supply driven. Using administrative loan level tax data, we document a reduction in lending on the firm level. This is robust to controlling for firm fixed effects, thereby accounting for potential firm-bank matching. Finally, we find that the reduction in bank lending has a negative impact on firm employment growth and that this effect is driven by small firms

• Thorsrud, Leif Anders (2018)
  Words are the New Numbers: A Newsy Coincident Index of the Business Cycle

  Journal of business & economic statistics, Doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.2018.1506344

• Larsen, Vegard Høghaug & Thorsrud, Leif Anders (2018)
  Business Cycle Narratives

  Working Paper, Norges Bank, Doi: https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3130108

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  This article quantifies the epidemiology of media narratives relevant to business cycles in the US, Japan, and Europe (euro area). We do so by first constructing daily business cycle indexes computed on the basis of the news topics the media writes about. At a broad level, the most influential news narratives are shown to be associated with general macroeconomic developments, finance, and (geo-)politics. However, a large set of narratives contributes to our index estimates across time, especially in times of expansion. In times of trouble, narratives associated with economic fluctuations become more sparse. Likewise, we show that narratives do go viral, but mostly so when growth is low. While narratives interact in complicated ways, we document that some are clearly associated with economic fundamentals. Other narratives, on the other hand, show no such relationship, and are likely better explained by classical work capturing the market’s animal spirits.

• Lancia, Francesco & Russo, Alessia (2018)
  Sustaining Cooperation Through Strategic Self-Interested Actions

  The B.E. Journal of Theoretical Economics, , s. 1-11. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1515/bejte-2017-0157

• Bjørnland, Hilde C & Thorsrud, Leif Anders (2018)
  Commodity prices and fiscal policy design: Procyclical despite a rule

  Journal of applied econometrics, Doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.2669

• Fiva, Jon H. & Røhr, Helene Lie (2018)
  Climbing the ranks: incumbency effects in party-list systems

  European Economic Review, 101(January 2018) , s. 142-156. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2017.09.011 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Incumbents tend to have a solid electoral advantage in candidate-centered electoral settings. Do similar incumbency effects exist in more party-centered environments? We estimate incumbency effects in an open-list proportional representation system, exploiting that seats are first allocated across parties, and then to candidates within party lists. Using data from Norwegian local elections 2003–2015, we document that a candidate that barely wins a seat in the local council has about a 9 percentage points (43%) higher probability of being elected in the next election compared to a candidate that just misses out on a seat on the same party list. We find no evidence that voters contribute to this personal incumbency advantage. Rather, it seems as if party elites are instrumental in securing the electoral success of their party affiliates. We show that incumbents and non-incumbents run again in the subsequent election at about equal rates, but that incumbents tend to advance in the party hierarchy and obtain safer ballot positions in future elections, which is what ultimately leads to electoral success.

• Sørensen, Rune Jørgen & From, Johan (2018)
  Osloskolen opp én divisjon – mer tid til læring og oppfølging

  [Report Research]. Handelshøyskolen BI

• Heggedal, Tom-Reiel; Helland, Leif & Joslin, Knut-Eric Neset (2018)
  Should I stay or should I go? Bandwagons in the lab

  Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 150(June) , s. 86-97. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2018.03.019 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  We experimentally investigate the impact of strategic uncertainty and complementarity on leader and follower behavior using the model of Farrell and Saloner (1985). At the core of the model are endogenous timing, irreversible actions and private valuations. We find that strategic complementarity strongly determines follower behavior. Once a subject decides to abandon the status quo the probability that other players jump on the bandwagon increases sharply. However, there is a reluctance to lead when leading is a conditional best response. We explain this deviation from the neo-classical equilibrium by injecting some noise in the equilibrium concept. We also find that cheap talk improves efficiency.

• Canova, Fabio & Sahneh, Mehdi Hamidi (2018)
  Are Small-Scale SVARs Useful for Business Cycle Analysis? Revisiting Nonfundamentalness

  Journal of the European Economic Association, 16(4) , s. 1069-1093. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvx032

• Bjørnland, Hilde C; Larsen, Vegard Høghaug & Maih, Junior (2018)
  Oil and macroeconomic (in)stability

  American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 10(4) , s. 128-151. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20150171

• Brinch, Christian; Fredriksen, Dennis & Vestad, Ola L. (2018)
  Life Expectancy and Claiming Behavior in a Flexible Pension System

  The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 120(4) , s. 979-1010. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/sjoe.12271

• Gilbert, Richard; Riis, Christian & Riis, Erlend S (2018)
  Stepwise innovation by an oligopoly

  International Journal of Industrial Organization, 61, s. 413-438. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2018.10.001

• Saris, Willem & Satorra, Albert (2018)
  The Pooled Data Approach for the Estimation of Split-Ballot Multitrait-Multimethod Experiments

  Structural Equation Modeling, 25(5) , s. 659-672. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/10705511.2018.1431543

• Boenisch, Peter; Geys, Benny & Michelsen, Claus (2018)
  David and Goliath in the Poll Booth: Group Size, Political Power and Voter Turnout

  Local Government Studies, 45, s. 724-747. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/03003930.2018.1510390 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  This article analyses how the presence of a dominant group of voters within the electorate affects voter turnout. Theoretically, we argue that its absolute size affects turnout via increased free-riding incentives and reduced social pressure to vote within a larger dominant group. Its relative size compared to other groups within the electorate influences turnout through instrumental and expressive responses – in both the dominant and dominated groups – to the degree of electoral competition between groups. Empirical evidence from a large cross section of German municipalities is in line with these theoretical predictions. The observed effects should be taken into account when redesigning electoral jurisdictions through, for instance, municipal mergers or gerrymandering.

• Boeri, Tito; Garibaldi, Pietro & Moen, Espen Rasmus (2018)
  Financial constraints in search equilibrium: Mortensen Pissarides meet Holmstrom and Tirole

  Labour Economics, 50(March) , s. 144-155. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2017.06.003 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  A key lesson from the Great Recession is that firms’ leverage and access to finance are important for hiring and firing decisions. It is now empirically established that bank lending is correlated with employment losses when credit conditions deteriorate. We provide further evidence of this and make causal inferences on the effect of leverage on job losses drawing on a new firm-level dataset that we assembled on employment and financial positions of European firms. Yet, in the Diamond Mortensen Pissarides (DMP) model there is no role for finance. All projects that display positive net present values are realized and financial markets are assumed to be perfect. What if financial markets are not perfect? Does a different access to finance influence the firm’s hiring and firing decisions? The paper uses the concept of limited pledgeability proposed by Holmstrom and Tirole to integrate financial imperfections and labor market imperfections. A negative shock wipes out the firm’s physical capital and leads to job destruction unless internal cash was accumulated by firms. If firms hold liquid assets they may thus protect their search capital, defined as the cost of attracting and hiring workers. The paper explores the trade-off between size and precautionary cash holdings in both partial and general equilibrium. We find that if labor market frictions disappear, so does the motive for firms to hold liquidity. This suggests a fundamental complementarity between labor market frictions and holding of liquid assets by firms.

• Anundsen, Andre Kallåk & Larsen, Erling Røed (2018)
  Testing for micro-efficiency in the housing market

  International Economic Review, 59(4) , s. 2133-2162. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12332 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Using highly granular transaction-level data for the Norwegian housing market over the period 2002–2014, we investigate whether excessive prices persist or revert in repeat sales. Excessiveness in prices is detected by comparing selling prices to predicted prices implied by a hedonic model, which includes a rich set of attributes. Persistence is rejected and there is substantial reversion in excessive prices. Our results also show little scope for profitable arbitrage by investing in apparently underpriced units. We suggest that excessive prices are related to the stochastic arrival of interested purchasers at public showings, which we show is nonrepeatable.

• Bou, Juan Carlos & Satorra, Albert (2018)
  Multivariate exploratory data analysis for large databases: An application to modelling firms? innovation using CIS data

  BRQ Business Research Quarterly, Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.brq.2018.10.001

• Walgermo, Bente R.; Foldnes, Njål, Uppstad, Per Henning & Solheim, Oddny Judith (2018)
  Developmental Dynamics of Early Reading Skill, Literacy Interest and Reader's Self-Concept Within the First Year of Formal Schooling

  Reading and writing, 31(6) , s. 1379-1399. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11145-018-9843-8 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Previous studies have documented robust relationships between emergent literacy and later reading performance. A growing body of research has also reported associations between motivational factors and reading in early phases of reading development. However, there is less research about cross-lagged relationships between motivational factors and reading skills in beginning readers. To examine relationships between early reading skills, literacy interest and reader self-concept, we tested 1141 children twice during their first year of formal reading instruction in school. Cross-lagged analysis showed strong stability in reading skills and medium stability in literacy interest and reader self-concept over the first school year. We also found bidirectional relationships between reading skills and self-concept and between the motivational components of literacy interest and reader self-concept. In the final part of the article, we address the potential theoretical progress attainable through the use of cross-lagged designs in this field.

• Foroni, Claudia; Ravazzolo, Francesco & Sadaba, Barbara (2018)
  Assessing the predictive ability of sovereign default risk on exchange rate returns

  Journal of International Money and Finance, 81, s. 242-264. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2017.12.001

• Reiter, Michael; Sveen, Tommy & Weinke, Lutz (2018)
  Agency costs and the monetary transmission mechanism

  The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, 20(1) , s. 1-11. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1515/bejm-2018-0010

• Hansen, Robert & Holden, Steinar (2018)
  Pareto 2

  [Textbook]. Cappelen Damm Akademisk

• Golombek, Rolf; Flores, Alfonso Irarrazabal & Ma, Lin (2018)
  OPECs Market Power: An Empirical Dominant Firm Model for the Oil Market

  Energy Economics, 70, s. 98-115. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2017.11.009 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  We estimate a dominant firm-competitive fringe model for the crude oil market using quarterly data on oil prices for the 1986–2016 period. The estimated structural parameters have the expected signs and are significant. We find that OPEC exercised market power during the sample period. Counterfactual experiments indicate that world GDP is the main driver of long-run oil prices. However, supply (depletion) factors have become more important in recent years.

• Bou, Juan Carlos & Satorra, Albert (2018)
  Univariate Versus Multivariate Modeling of Panel Data: Model Specification and Goodness-of-Fit Testing

  Organizational Research Methods, 21(1) , s. 150-196. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1177/1094428117715509

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  Two approaches are commonly in use for analyzing panel data: the univariate, which arranges data in long format and estimates just one regression equation; and the multivariate, which arranges data in wide format, and simultaneously estimates a set of regression equations. Although technical articles relating the two approaches exist, they do not seem to have had an impact in organizational research. This article revisits the connection between the univariate and multivariate approaches, elucidating conditions under which they yield the same—or similar—results, and discusses their complementariness. The article is addressed to applied researchers. For those familiar only with the univariate approach, it contributes with conceptual simplicity on goodness-of-fit testing and a variety of tests for misspecification (Hausman test, heteroscedasticity, autocorrelation, etc.), and simplifies expanding the model to time-varying parameters, dynamics, measurement error, and so on. For all practitioners, the comparative and side-by-side analyses of the two approaches on two data sets—demonstration data and empirical data with missing values—contributes to broadening their perspective of panel data modeling and expanding their tools for analyses. Both univariate and multivariate analyses are performed in Stata and R.

• Gelain, Paolo; Lansing, Kevin & Natvik, Gisle James (2018)
  Leaning Against The Credit Cycle

  Journal of the European Economic Association, 16(5) , s. 1350-1393. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvx043 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  How should a central bank act to stabilize the ratio of debt over gross domestic product (GDP)? We show how the persistent nature of household debt shapes the answer to this question. In environments where households repay mortgages gradually, surprise interest hikes only weakly influence household debt, and tend to increase debt-to-GDP in the short run while reducing it in the medium run. Interest rate rules with a positive weight on debt-to-GDP cause indeterminacy. Compared to inflation targeting, debt-to-GDP stabilization calls for a more expansionary policy when debt-to-GDP is high, so as to deflate the debt burden through inflation and output growth.

• Holden, Steinar; Natvik, Gisle James & Vigier, Adrien Henri (2018)
  CREDIT RATING AND DEBT CRISES

  International Economic Review, 59(2) , s. 973-987. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12293 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  We develop an equilibrium theory of credit rating in the presence of rollover risk. By influencing rational creditors, ratings affect sovereigns' probability of default, which in turn affects ratings. Our analysis reveals a pro‐cyclical impact of credit rating: In equilibrium the presence of a rating agency increases default risk when it is high and decreases default risk when it is low.

• Pretis, Felix; Reade, J James & Sucarrat, Genaro (2018)
  Automated General-to-Specific (GETS) Regression Modeling and Indicator Saturation for Outliers and Structural Breaks

  Journal of Statistical Software, 86(3) , s. 1-44. Doi: https://doi.org/10.18637/jss.v086.i03 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  This paper provides an overview of the R package gets, which contains facilities for automated general-to-specific (GETS) modeling of the mean and variance of a regression, and indicator saturation (IS) methods for the detection and modeling of outliers and structural breaks. The mean can be specified as an autoregressive model with covariates (an "AR-X" model), and the variance can be specified as an autoregressive log-variance model with covariates (a "log-ARCH-X" model). The covariates in the two specifications need not be the same, and the classical linear regression model is obtained as a special case when there is no dynamics, and when there are no covariates in the variance equation. The four main functions of the package are arx, getsm, getsv and isat. The first function estimates an AR-X model with log-ARCH-X errors. The second function undertakes GETS modeling of the mean specification of an 'arx' object. The third function undertakes GETS modeling of the log-variance specification of an 'arx' object. The fourth function undertakes GETS modeling of an indicator-saturated mean specification allowing for the detection of outliers and structural breaks. The usage of two convenience functions for export of results to EViews and Stata are illustrated, and LATEX code of the estimation output can readily be generated.

• Bianchi, Daniele; Guidolin, Massimo & Ravazzolo, Francesco (2018)
  Dissecting the 2007-2009 real estate market bust: Systematic pricing correction or just a housing fad?

  Journal of Financial Econometrics, 16(1) , s. 34-62. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1093/jjfinec/nbx023

• Witte, Kristof De; Geys, Benny & Schönhage, Nanna Lauritz (2018)
  Strategic public policy around population thresholds

  Journal of Urban Economics, 106(July) , s. 46-58. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2018.06.001 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Political economists have long maintained that politicians respond to both (re-)election and financial incentives. This article contributes to the latter literature by analysing whether, when and how local office-holders respond to the economic incentives embedded in exogenously imposed population thresholds leading to an increased number and remuneration of local politicians. Building on insights from the urban economics and public finance literatures, we argue that local politicians may strategically adjust fiscal and housing policies to stimulate in-migration when approaching a population threshold where their remuneration increases. Using data from all 589 Belgian municipalities over the period 1977–2016, our results confirm that approaching important population thresholds causes lower local tax rates and the granting of additional building permits (particularly for apartments). These policy changes occur early in the election cycle and, at least for housing policy, are restricted to incumbent mayors themselves expecting to benefit from crossing the population threshold.

• Frøyland, Kjetil; Nordberg, Tanja Haraldsdottir & Nedregård, Oda (2018)
  Nyere kunnskap om inkluderende arbeidsliv (IA). Sammenstilling og vurdering av studier med relevans for IA-avtalens mål og for et godt IA-arbeid, publisert i perioden 2014-2018.

  [Report Research]. Arbeidsforskningsinstituttet, OsloMet

• Dalen, Dag Morten; Locatelli, Marilena & Strøm, Steinar Øivind (2018)
  An Equilibrium Model Estimated on Pharmaceutical Data

  Atlantic Economic Journal, 46(3) , s. 281-296. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11293-018-9592-8 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  The purpose of this paper is to estimate patients’ and doctors’ responses to prices when making a choice between brand name products and generics. We account for the response of pharmacies to government regulation and to prices set by brand name producers. The data from the Norwegian Prescription Database are unique in the sense that we observe prices set by pharmacies as well as by producers. Our results confirm that estimating only the demand side yields biased estimates of consumers’ price responses. We find much stronger price responses when demand and supply are jointly estimated.

• Blandford, David; Gaasland, Ivar & Vårdal, Erling (2018)
  Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Land Use, and Food Supply under the Paris Climate Agreement—Policy Choice in Norway

  Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, 41(2) , s. 249-264. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1093/aepp/ppy011

• Bjertnæs, Geir Haakon Malterud; Heggedal, Tom-Reiel & Jacobsen, Karl (2018)
  Knowledge Spillovers and the Timing of Environmental R&D Subsidies

  At the Forefront, Looking Ahead: Research-Based Answers to Contemporary Uncertainties of Management, , s. 214-230. Doi: https://doi.org/10.18261/9788215031583-2018-14

• Murdoch, Zuzana; Kassim, Hussein, Connolly, Sara & Geys, Benny (2018)
  Do international institutions matter? Socialization and international bureaucrats

  European Journal of International Relations, 25(3) , s. 852-877. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1177/1354066118809156

• Asche, Frank; Cojocaru, Andreea-Laura, Gaasland, Ivar & Straume, Hans-Martin (2018)
  Cod stories: Trade dynamics and duration for Norwegian cod exports

  Journal of Commodity Markets, 12 Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcomm.2017.12.002 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  In recent years, trade dynamics have been receiving increased attention, and the general literature indicates that commodities are different. In this paper, the duration of trade relationships for Norwegian export firms to various markets is investigated for six product forms of one commodity, cod. The results indicate that the duration of most trade relationships is very short, and shorter than what is normally reported in the literature. Still, the substantial variation in duration by product form and factors influencing it, indicates heterogeneous dynamics for each supply chain even for slight differences in the characteristics of a commodity. Moreover, the short duration of trade relationships in the supply chains for Norwegian cod indicates that they remain very traditional food supply chains, with few attempts at reducing transaction costs through vertical coordination or relationships.

• Helland, Leif; Monkerud, Lars Chr. & Løyning, Gjermund (2018)
  Seasoned parliamentarians perform worse than students in a lobbying experiment

  At the Forefront, Looking Ahead: Research-Based Answers to Contemporary Uncertainties of Management, Doi: https://doi.org/10.18261/9788215031583-2018-15

• Casarin, Roberto; Foroni, Claudia, Marcellino, Massimiliano & Ravazzolo, Francesco (2018)
  Uncertainty through the lenses of a mixed-frequency bayesian panel markov-switching model

  Annals of Applied Statistics, 12(4) , s. 2559-2586. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1214/18-AOAS1168

• Helland, Leif; Hovi, Jon & Sælen, Håkon (2018)
  Climate Leadership by Conditional Commitments

  Oxford Economic Papers, 70(2) , s. 417-442. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1093/oep/gpx045 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Under the 2015 Paris climate agreement, each Party sets its own mitigation target by submitting a Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) every …five years. An important question is whether including conditional components in NDCs might enhance the agreement’s effectiveness. We report the results of a closely controlled laboratory experiment – based on a mixed sequential-simultaneous public good game with one leader and three followers –that helps answer this question. The experiment investigates how two factors infl‡uence the effectiveness of leadership based on intrinsically conditional commitments. Measuring e¤ectiveness in terms of followers’' and total contributions, we …find that it may help if the conditional promise is credible and if its implementation in‡fluences followers'’ welfare substantially. Importantly, however, for both factors we fi…nd a signi…cant effect only if the leader does not reap disproportionate gains from the group'’s efforts. These fi…ndings have important implications concerning the future success of the Paris agreement.

• Borge, Lars-Erik; Steigum, Erling & Strandenes, Siri Pettersen (2018)
  Artikkel om vitenskapelig fundament for empiriske analyser vant artikkelprisen for 2017

  [Professional Article]. Samfunnsøkonomen, (Nr. 1) , s. 51-52.

• Gustavsen, Trond Stølen & Ile, Runar (2018)
  Deformations of rational surface singularities and reflexive modules with an application to flops

  Advances in Mathematics, 340, s. 1108-1140. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aim.2018.10.023 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Blowing up a rational surface singularity in a reflexive module gives a (any) partial resolution dominated by the minimal resolution. The main theorem shows how deformations of the pair (singularity, module) relates to deformations of the corresponding pair of partial resolution and locally free strict transform, and to deformations of the underlying spaces. The results imply some recent conjectures on small resolutions and flops.

• Trondal, Jarle; Murdoch, Zuzana & Geys, Benny (2018)
  How pre- and post-recruitment factors shape role perceptions of European Commission officials

  Governance. An International Journal of Policy, Administration and Institutions, 31(1) , s. 85-101. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/gove.12269 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Individuals' role perceptions are central guides to their behavior and choices as members of an organization. Understanding organizational dynamics thus requires knowledge about the determinants of such role perceptions, as well as whether—and when—organizations can influence them. This article brings forward a theoretical framework allowing for both prerecruitment (extraorganizational) and post-recruitment (intraorganizational) determinants of individuals' role perceptions, and examines its empirical implications using a large-N data set of temporary officials in the European Commission. We find that intergovernmental and epistemic role perceptions are strongly linked to pre-recruitment factors (such as educational and professional background), whereas postrecruitment factors (such as length of affiliation and embeddedness within the Commission) are the main driving force behind supranational and departmental role perceptions. This heterogeneity in the importance of pre- and postrecruitment factors for distinct role perceptions has important consequences for conceptualizing organizational change.

• Grytten, Jostein Ivar; Skau, Irene, Sørensen, Rune Jørgen & Eskild, Anne (2018)
  Does the Use of Diagnostic Technology Reduce Fetal Mortality?

  Health Services Research (HSR), 53(6) , s. 4437-4459. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-6773.12721 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Objective: To examine the effect that the introduction of new diagnostic technology in obstetric care has had on fetal death. Data Source The Medical Birth Registry of Norway provided detailed medical information for approximately 1.2 million deliveries from 1967 to 1995. Information about diagnostic technology was collected directly from the maternity units, using a questionnaire. Study Design: The data were analyzed using a hospital fixed‐effects regression with fetal mortality as the outcome measure. The key independent variables were the introduction of ultrasound and electronic fetal monitoring at each maternity ward. Hospital‐specific trends and risk factors of the mother were included as control variables. The richness of the data allowed us to perform several robustness tests. Principal Finding: The introduction of ultrasound caused a significant drop in fetal mortality rate, while the introduction of electronic fetal monitoring had no effect on the rate. In the population as a whole, ultrasound contributed to a reduction in fetal deaths of nearly 20 percent. For post‐term deliveries, the reduction was well over 50 percent. Conclusion: The introduction of ultrasound made a major contribution to the decline in fetal mortality at the end of the last century.

• Aastveit, Knut Are; Anundsen, Andre Kallåk & Herstad, Eyo A. Ildahl (2018)
  Residential investment and recession predictability

  International Journal of Forecasting, Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2018.09.008

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  We assess the importance of residential investment for the prediction of economic recessions for an unbalanced panel of 12 OECD countries over the period 1960Q1–2014Q4. Our approach is to estimate various probit models with different leading indicators and evaluate their relative prediction accuracies using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve as our forecasting performance metric. We document that residential investment contains information that is useful for predicting recessions both in-sample and out-of-sample. This result is robust to adding typical leading indicators, such as the term spread, stock prices, consumer confidence surveys and oil prices. It is shown that residential investment is particularly useful for the prediction of recessions for countries with high home-ownership rates. Finally, in a separate exercise for the US, we show that the predictive ability of residential investment is — in a broad sense — robust to employing real-time data.

• Bjørnland, Hilde C (2017)
  Should monetary policy pay attention to financial stability?

  [Professional Article]. Arbeidsnotater, finansdepartementet, (4) , s. 77-83.

• Russo, Alessia; Bertocchi, Graziella, Dimico, Arcangelo & Lancia, Francesco (2017)
  Youth Enfranchisement, Political Responsiveness, and Education Investments: Evidence from the US

  [Report Research]. The Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

• Bruno, Lars Christian (2017)
  Palm oil plantation productivity during the establishment of the Malaysian refinery sector 1970–1990

  Economic History of Developing Regions, 32(3) , s. 221-269. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/20780389.2017.1343660 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  The Malaysian palm oil sector is an example of how a developing country can manage to establish itself as a world leader in the production and processing of an agricultural crop. This paper examines the formative period (1970–1990) of the Malaysian palm oil industry by focusing on the productivity at the plantation level, the first level of production, to understand how this process influenced the establishment of the higher value-added refineries. The paper finds that the official productivity figures, the oil yield (metric tonnes of crude palm oil per hectare), is inconsistent and estimates more consistent productivity figures. In addition, the paper briefly considers labour productivity as the Malaysian palm oil sector is more labour-intensive than its competitors. The main finding is that the improvements in plantation productivity were crucial for the development of the palm oil processing refinery sector, which might hold important implications for other developing countries wishing to promote agricultural processing industries.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2017)
  Statseide foretak på offensiven i Kina

  Samfunnsøkonomen, (3)

• Eriksen, Eivind (2017)
  Matematikk for økonomi og finans. Oppgaver og løsningsforslag.

  [Textbook]. Cappelen Damm Akademisk

• Bruce, Erik & Sveen, Tommy (2017)
  Norges Bank Watch 2017 An Independent Evaluation of Monetary Policy in Norway

  [Report Research]. Handelshøyskolen BI

• Geys, Benny (2017)
  Political Dynasties, Electoral Institutions and Politicians’ Human Capital

  Economic Journal, 127(605) , s. F474-F494. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12444 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  This article focuses on political dynasties’ potential consequences, and particularly investigates whether and when they lead to the selection of dynastic politicians with relatively lower education levels. I exploit the different electoral constraints faced by distinct subsets of Italian local politicians to identify whether weaker constraints on political selection processes induce the selection of dynastic politicians with lower education levels relative to their non-dynastic peers. The analysis – which covers almost 540,000 Italian local politicians active during the period 1985–2012 – indicates that a political selection process controlled by politicians rather than the electorate favours dynastic individuals with relatively lower levels of education.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2017)
  Norges bank i støpeskjeen

  [Professional Article]. Samfunnsøkonomen, 131(6) - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Gjedrem-utvalget vil ha økt uavhengighet for Norges Bank, kombinert med mer presise mål og klarere linjer for ansvar. De pengepolitiske beslutningene vil utvalget legge til en komité på fem personer der tre er ansatt i banken. Beslutningene her kan styret i Norges Bank, som kun skal bestå av eksterne medlemmer, ikke overprøve. Representantskapet skal avvikles. Finanstilsynet så vel som Finansdepartementet må avgi makt til Norges Bank. Ved den praktiske utformingen av norsk pengepolitikk skal der legges større vekt på høy sysselsetting. Nytenkning og ambisjoner er det ikke noe å si på.

• Geys, Benny; Heggedal, Tom-Reiel & Sørensen, Rune Jørgen (2017)
  Are Bureaucrats Paid like CEOs? Performance Compensation and Turnover of Top Civil Servants

  Journal of Public Economics, 152, s. 47-54. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2017.05.006

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  Recent research explores the effect of financial and career incentives on public-sector hiring processes and subsequent performance. The reverse relation between performance and bureaucrats’ compensation and turnover has received only limited attention. Due to the distinct features of public-sector organizations, bureaucrats are traditionally argued to require either permanent positions and fixed wages, or low-powered performance incentives. This article studies how the performance of top civil servants in Norwegian local governments affects their compensation and turnover. We thereby build on a unique new dataset over the period 1991-2014. Our results indicate that better performing top civil servants obtain a higher compensation and are less likely to be replaced. Nonetheless, these incentives remain low-powered in line with agency theory prescriptions.

• Foldnes, Njål & Grønneberg, Steffen (2017)
  The asymptotic covariance matrix and its use in simulation studies

  Structural Equation Modeling, 24(6) , s. 881-896. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/10705511.2017.1341320 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  The asymptotic performance of structural equation modeling tests and standard errors are influenced by two factors: the model and the asymptotic covariance matrix Γ of the sample covariances. Although most simulation studies clearly specify model conditions, specification of Γ is usually limited to values of univariate skewness and kurtosis. We illustrate that marginal skewness and kurtosis are not sufficient to adequately specify a nonnormal simulation condition by showing that asymptotic standard errors and test statistics vary substantially among distributions with skewness and kurtosis that are identical. We argue therefore that Γ should be reported when presenting the design of simulation studies. We show how Γ can be exactly calculated under the widely used Vale–Maurelli transform. We suggest plotting the elements of Γ and reporting the eigenvalues associated with the test statistic. R code is provided.

• Sucarrat, Genaro (2017)
  Metode og økonometri - en moderne innføring (2. utgave)

  [Textbook]. Fagbokforlaget

• Moen, Espen Rasmus & Riis, Christian (2017)
  Regulating the Norwegian Telecommunications Market in 2016: How Much is Necessary?

  Finance in Society: An Anthology in Honour of Thore Johnsen, , s. 389-406.

• Bjørnland, Hilde C (2017)
  Penningpolitiska utmaningar – att väga i dag mot i morgon. (Kommentar i Nationalekonomiska Föreningens förhandlingar.)

  [Professional Article]. Ekonomisk Debatt, (6) , s. 71-96.

• Grønneberg, Steffen & Foldnes, Njål (2017)
  Covariance Model Simulation Using Regular Vines

  Psychometrika, 82(4) , s. 1035-1051. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11336-017-9569-6 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  We propose a new and flexible simulation method for non-normal data with user-specified marginal distributions, covariance matrix and certain bivariate dependencies. The VITA (VIne To Anything) method is based on regular vines and generalizes the NORTA (NORmal To Anything) method. Fundamental theoretical properties of the VITA method are deduced. Two illustrations demonstrate the flexibility and usefulness of VITA in the context of structural equation models. R code for the implementation is provided.

• Foldnes, Njål (2017)
  The impact of class attendance on student learning in a flipped classroom

  Nordic Journal of Digital Literacy, 12(1-2) , s. 8-18. Doi: https://doi.org/10.18261/issn.1891-943x-2017-01-02-02 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  We investigate the relationship between class attendance and academic achievement in a flipped classroom that was designed to foster social learning in fixed groups. Controlling for initial mathematical skill and attitudes, we found a substantial effect of class attendance on student achievement. Increasing class attendance by one standard deviation was associated with an increase in mathematics performance of 0.28 standard deviations. Neither attitudes nor initial mathematical skill predicted class attendance. We conclude that availability of online videos does not eliminate the need for carefully designed in-class sessions in order to maximise student learning. Communicating this finding may help reduce absenteeism in the flipped classroom.

• Russo, Alessia; Bertocchi, Graziella, Dimico, Arcangelo & Lancia, Francesco (2017)
  The fiscal impact of empowering the voters of tomorrow

  [Professional Article]. http://www.voxeu.org/,

• Steen-Utheim, Anna Therese & Foldnes, Njål (2017)
  A qualitative investigation of student engagement in a flipped classroom

  Teaching in Higher Education, 23(3) , s. 307-324. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/13562517.2017.1379481 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  The flipped classroom is gaining acceptance in higher education as an alternative to more traditional methods of teaching. In the current study, twelve students in a Norwegian higher education institution were in-depth interviewed about their learning experiences in a two-semester long mathematics course. The first semester was taught using flipped classroom and the second semester using lectures, where both teaching modes contained a substantial amount of active learning. Overall, students report a more positive learning experience and higher engagement in the flipped classroom. The analysis revealed seven categories that the students highlight as especially conducive to their learning; commitment to peers, being recognized, feeling safe, instructor relationship, physical learning environment, learning with peers and using videos to learn new content. The results indicate that the affective dimension of student engagement is particularly prominent when students reflect upon learning in the flipped classroom.

• Foldnes, Njål & Grønneberg, Steffen (2017)
  Approximating Test Statistics Using Eigenvalue Block Averaging

  Structural Equation Modeling, 25(1) , s. 101-114. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/10705511.2017.1373021 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  We introduce and evaluate a new class of approximations to common test statistics in structural equation modeling. Such test statistics asymptotically follow the distribution of a weighted sum of i.i.d. chi-square variates, where the weights are eigenvalues of a certain matrix. The proposed eigenvalue block averaging (EBA) method involves creating blocks of these eigenvalues and replacing them within each block with the block average. The Satorra–Bentler scaling procedure is a special case of this framework, using one single block. The proposed procedure applies also to difference testing among nested models. We investigate the EBA procedure both theoretically in the asymptotic case, and with simulation studies for the finite-sample case, under both maximum likelihood and diagonally weighted least squares estimation. Comparison is made with 3 established approximations: Satorra–Bentler, the scaled and shifted, and the scaled F tests.

• Larsen, Erling Røed (2017)
  Den nye økonomien: kunnskapsøkonomien, Formue, 1/2007, s 14 - 19

  [Popular Science Article]. Formue, 2017(1)

• Geys, Benny (2017)
  Do Voluntary Associations Show their Bright or Dark Side under Adverse Societal Shocks? Evidence from 9/11

  Nonprofit and Voluntary Sector Quarterly, 46(6) , s. 1189-1208. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1177/0899764017718634 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  In this article, we reassess the relation between association membership and individuals’ feelings about immigrants, thereby focusing on possible shifts in this relation in the wake of negative societal shocks (i.e., the 9/11 terrorist attacks). That is, do such events tighten or loosen the connection between association membership and immigrant intolerance? Using repeated survey data from Flanders (Belgium), our results indicate that there is at best a weak overall connection between association membership and immigrant intolerance. The exception lies with members of socially embedded (or “connected”) associations, which tend to be significantly more tolerant toward immigrants. Interestingly, we find no significant change in the relationship between voluntary association membership and immigrant intolerance in the immediate aftermath of 9/11. This suggests that negative societal shocks have little direct impact on the membership-attitudes relation. The analysis contributes to discussions on the potential “bright” and “dark” sides of civic engagement.

• Straume, Hans-Martin (2017)
  Here today, gone tomorrow: The duration of Norwegian salmon exports

  Aquaculture Economics & Management, 21(1) , s. 88-104. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/13657305.2017.1262477

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  Success in the export markets is not only about entry into markets, but also about survival and export growth. General empirical evidence suggests that high export growth is positively associated with the duration of trade relationships. For exporters of highly perishable goods such as fresh salmon, efficient trade relations are important to prevent loss of product quality as time from harvest to final consumption increases. This research analyzes the duration of trade relationships for Norwegian salmon exports. Using highly disaggregated data for the 1999–2009 period, the trade relations for exports of fresh-farmed salmon from Norway are remarkably short. At the firm-to-country level the mean duration is 4 years, Furthermore, the degree of dynamics increases as the data becomes more disaggregated. Market uncertainty in the form of transportation costs and export to countries in the EU are associated with a larger probability for failure. Factors that are associated with a reduced risk of exiting the market are the size of the initial shipment between the trading partners, continuing large shipments and the size of the exporting firm.

• Fiva, Jon H. & Smith, Daniel M. (2017)
  Local Candidates and Voter Mobilization: Evidence from Historical Two-Round Elections in Norway

  Electoral Studies: an international journal on voting and electoral systems and strategy, 45, s. 130-140. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2016.11.021 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  What effect do candidates with local ties have on voter turnout and party support? A considerable challenge within the existing literature on the personal vote, including that part which derives from local ties, is disentangling it from the party vote using observational data. We exploit the unique institutional context of Norway’s historical two-round system, and data measured at the municipality level, to evaluate the mobilizational impact of voter attachment to parties versus (local) candidates. Under this system, entry into the second round was unrestricted, with the number and identity of candidates determined by elite coordination decisions. In municipalities where coordination at the district level between rounds resulted in the withdrawal of a candidate with local ties, we document a strong negative effect on both turnout and party support, which highlights the value of the personal vote for mobilization, and the potential trade-offs that confront parties and coalitions in nomination decisions.

• Hassan, Mamdouh & Geys, Benny (2017)
  What Do We Value Most In Schools? An Empirical Study of Stakeholders’ Preference Rankings of School Attributes

  Social Science Quarterly, 98(5) , s. 1313-1327. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/ssqu.12337 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Objectives A key question in education policy as well as individuals’ school choice involves the characteristics of schools we value most. It is thereby important to understand any heterogeneity in parents’, teachers’, and school principals’ preference rankings driven by their education level, gender, and age. Method In this article, we propose a survey-based approach to examine preference rankings of diverse school attributes, which accounts for tradeoffs required in real-world choice situations. Results Our results indicate that stakeholders on average rank the “ethical” aspects of schools (such as pupil and staff happiness and equality of opportunities) above their “efficiency” aspects (such as academic achievement or school size). Yet, respondents’ role in the school as well as their education level, gender, and age influence observed preference rankings. Conclusions To avoid biased inferences, survey designs on school preferences should account for the fact that real-world choices in favor of one particular characteristic often imply giving up at least some others. Doing so, we show that parents, teachers, and school principals appear to disagree with the predominant consideration awarded to academic achievement in current education policies.

• Sucarrat, Genaro & Escribano, Alvaro (2017)
  Estimation of log-GARCH models in the presence of zero returns

  European Journal of Finance, 24(10) , s. 809-827. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/1351847X.2017.1336452

• Andersen, Jørgen Juel & Greaker, Mads (2017)
  Emission Trading with Fiscal Externalities: The Case for a Common Carbon Tax for the Non-ETS Emissions in the EU

  Environmental and Resource Economics, 71(3) , s. 803-823. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-017-0184-x

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  A government is fiscally constrained if it is unable to raise sufficient tax revenue to finance the first-best level of public spending. When involved in emission trading, a fiscally constrained government will potentially seek to close its fiscal gap through emission permit sales. This fiscal incentive therefore generates a fiscal externality in the permit market that is endogenous to the extent of fiscal constrainedness among the participating countries. Our theory explains how, and when, fiscal externalities may be expected to arise. Moreover, we show that in a permit market equilibrium with fiscal externalities, the initial allocation of emission permits between countries will affect: (1) the price of emission permits, (2) the global distribution of abatement effort, and (3) total greenhouse gas mitigation costs. This is contrary to the textbook model of emission permit markets. Our findings are especially relevant for the EU which is about to allow for trading in emission rights between EU member countries for all emissions outside the European Emissions Trading System..

• Fiva, Jon H. & Smith, Daniel M. (2017)
  Norwegian parliamentary elections, 1906?2013: representation and turnout across four electoral systems

  West European Politics, 40(6) , s. 1373-1391. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/01402382.2017.1298016 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Since gaining full independence in 1905, Norway has experienced more than a century of democratic elections, and has reformed its electoral system three times, most notably with the switch from a two-round runoff system to proportional representation in 1919. This research note introduces a new dataset featuring all candidates running for parliamentary (Storting) elections from 1906 to 2013, and documents the patterns over time and across electoral systems in the development of the party system; candidates’ gender, age, occupation, and geographic ties; and voter turnout. Scholars interested in using the dataset can gain access to it through the Norwegian Centre for Research Data

• Bjørnland, Hilde C; Ravazzolo, Francesco & Thorsrud, Leif Anders (2017)
  Forecasting GDP with global components: This time is different

  International Journal of Forecasting, 33(1) , s. 153-173. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2016.02.004

• Geys, Benny & Smith, Daniel Markham (2017)
  Political Dynasties in Democracies: Causes, Consequences and Remaining Puzzles

  Economic Journal, 127(605) , s. 446-454. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12442 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Kinship often continues to play an important role in determining the ruling class even under modern democratic elections in a wide range of countries. In recent years, academic interest in the causes and consequences of such dynasties has been rapidly expanding. In this introduction to the Feature, we review existing work on political dynasties’ formation and potential implications for socio-economic outcomes (such as economic growth, distributive policy, and gender representation), and outline a number of questions and challenges that remain important avenues for future research.

• Sveen, Tommy & Weinke, Lutz (2017)
  Optimal Monetary Policy with Nominal Rigidities and Lumpy Investment

  The International Journal of Central Banking, 13(4) , s. 35-62. - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  New Keynesian theory generally abstracts from the lumpy nature of plant-level investment. Given the prominent role of investment spending for shaping optimal monetary policy, this simplification could be problematic. Our analysis suggests, however, that this is not the case in the context of a New Keynesian model featuring lumpy investment `a la Sveen and Weinke (2007).

• Helland, Leif; Moen, Espen Rasmus & Preugschat, Edgar (2017)
  Information and coordination frictions in experimental posted offer markets

  Journal of Economic Theory, 167, s. 53-74. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2016.09.007

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  We experimentally investigate buyer and seller behavior in small markets with two kinds of frictions. First, a subset of buyers may have (severely) limited information about prices, and choose a seller at random. Second, sellers may not be able to serve all potential customers. Such capacity constraints can lead to coordination frictions where some sellers and buyers may not be able to trade. Theory predicts very different equilibrium outcomes when we vary the set-up along these two dimensions. In particular, it implies that a higher number of informed buyers will lead to lower prices when sellers do not face capacity constraints, while prices may actually increase if sellers are capacity constrained, as shown by Lester (2011). In the experiment, the differences between the constrained and non-constrained case are confirmed; prices fall when sellers are not capacity constrained but either do not fall by much or even increase when they are not. We find that prices are quite close to the predicted equilibrium values except in treatments where unconstrained sellers face a large fraction of informed buyers. However, introducing noise into the theoretical decision making process produces a pattern of deviations that fits well with the observed ones.

• Heggedal, Tom-Reiel; Moen, Espen Rasmus & Preugschat, Edgar (2017)
  Productivity spillovers through labor mobility in search equilibrium

  Journal of Economic Theory, 169, s. 551-602. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2017.03.003

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  This paper proposes an explicit model of spillovers through labor flows in a framework with search frictions. Firms can choose to innovate or to imitate by hiring a worker from a firm that has already innovated. We show that if innovating firms can commit to long-term wage contracts with their workers, productivity spillovers are fully internalized. If firms cannot commit to long-term wage contracts, there is too little innovation and too much imitation in equilibrium. Our model is tractable and allows us to analyze welfare effects of various policies in the limited commitment case. We find that subsidizing innovation and taxing imitation improves welfare. Moreover, allowing innovating firms to charge different forms of fees or rent out workers to imitating firms may also improve welfare. By contrast, non-pecuniary measures that reduce the efficiency of the search process, always reduce welfare.

• Mahieu, Bram; Geys, Benny & Heyndels, Bruno (2017)
  Fiscal fairness as a political argument

  Kyklos (Basel), 70(4) , s. 622-640. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/kykl.12151 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Governments typically apply several tax instruments. The tax choice literature sees the choice among these as depending on the political costs involved. One source of such costs is (horizontal) inequity in the distribution of the tax burden. In this article, we provide the first empirical test of the question whether and to what extent such inequity affects tax choices. Using data on housing sales and tax policy in Flemish municipalities, we create an indicator for the inequity of the local property tax. The latter is levied on the property's assessed rental value, and its inequity is a by-product of the slow reassessment procedure, leading to a situation in which properties of identical value are taxed very differently. We find clear evidence that municipalities in which property taxation is more inequitable tend to rely less on this tax as a source of municipal revenue.

• Olsen, Håvard Goodwin & Hermansen, Gudmund Horn (2017)
  Updates to density estimations in RMS

  [Report Research]. Norsk Regnesentral

• Boeri, Tito; Garibaldi, Pietro & Moen, Espen Rasmus (2017)
  Inside severance pay

  Journal of Public Economics, 145, s. 211-225. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2016.11.003

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  All OECD countries have either legally mandated severance pay or compensations imposed by industry-level bargaining in case of employer initiated job separations. The paper shows that mandatory severance is optimal in presence of wage deferrals induced by workers' moral hazard. We also establish a link between optimal severance and efficiency of the legal system and characterize the effects of shifting the burden of proof from the employer to the worker. Quantitatively, the welfare effects of suboptimal severance payments vary in general equilibrium between 1 and 3 %. The model accounts also for two neglected features of the legislation. The first is the discretion of judges in declaring the nature, economic vs. disciplinary, of the layoff. The second feature regards the relationship between severance and tenure. Our theory gives necessary conditions under which optimal severance is increasing with tenure, as generally observed.

• Aastveit, Knut Are; Natvik, Gisle James & Sola, Sergio (2017)
  Economic uncertainty and the influence of monetary policy

  Journal of International Money and Finance, 76, s. 50-67. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2017.05.003

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  This paper explores if economic uncertainty alters the macroeconomic influence of monetary policy. We use several measures of U.S. economic uncertainty, and estimate their interaction with monetary policy shocks as identified through structural vector autoregressions. We find that U.S. monetary policy shocks affect economic activity less when uncertainty is high, in line with “real-option” effects from theory. Holding uncertainty constant, the effect on investment is approximately halved when uncertainty is in its top instead of its bottom decile.

• Andersen, Jørgen Juel; Johannesen, Niels, Lassen, David Dreyer & Paltseva, Elena (2017)
  Petro rents, political institutions, and hidden wealth: Evidence from offshore bank accounts

  Journal of the European Economic Association, 15(4) , s. 818-860. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvw019

• Francq, Christian & Sucarrat, Genaro (2017)
  An Equation-by-Equation Estimation of a Multivariate Log-GARCH-X Model of Financial Returns

  Journal of Multivariate Analysis, 153, s. 16-32. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmva.2016.09.010

• Geys, Benny & Qari, Salmai (2017)
  Will you still trust me tomorrow? The causal effect of terrorism on social trust

  Public Choice, 173(3-4) , s. 289-305. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11127-017-0477-1 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  How do people respond to terrorist events? Exploiting the timing of the 2010 wave of the annual ‘Society Opinion Media’ survey in Sweden, we study the causal effect of the Stockholm bombings of 11 December 2010 on Swedish public opinion. Our main contribution is that we draw explicit attention to the link between terrorist events and individuals’ social trust. While we identify a strong effect on individuals’ concern over terrorism, any observed effects with respect to generalised and neighbourhood trust appear to be short-lived—suggesting that isolated terror events have only limited, transitory effects on established social attitudes.

• Francq, Christian & Sucarrat, Genaro (2017)
  An Exponential Chi-Squared QMLE for Log-GARCH Models Via the ARMA Representation

  Journal of Financial Econometrics, 16(1) , s. 129-154. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1093/jjfinec/nbx032

• Brinch, Christian; Hernæs, Erik & Jia, Zhiyang (2017)
  Salience and Social Security Benefits

  Journal of Labor Economics, 35(1) , s. 265-297. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1086/687580

• Rønning, Helge; Holmen, Rasmus Bøgh, Grünfeld, Leo Andreas & Riis, Christian (2017)
  Avanseregulering i ny boklov.

  [Report Research]. Menon

• Bhuller, Manudeep; Brinch, Christian & Konigs, Sebastian (2017)
  Time Aggregation and State Dependence in Welfare Receipt

  Economic Journal, 127(604) , s. 1833-1873. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12366

• Mehlum, Halvor; Torvik, Ragnar & Valente, Simone (2017)
  Sparemultiplikatoren

  Samfunnsøkonomen, (6) , s. 51-53.

• Borge, Lars-Erik; Fiva, Jon H., Rattsø, Jørn & Sørensen, Rune Jørgen (2017)
  Frivillig kommunesammenslåing - betydningen av folketall, inntekt og politisk avstand

  Helsepolitikkens faglige premisser, , s. 17-28.

  Vis sammendrag

  I denne artikkelen analyserer vi lokale folkeavstemninger om kommunesammenslåing. Det forventes at stor forskjell i folketall, inntektsnivå og politiske preferanser mellom kommuner vil gjøre sammenslåing vanskelig. Det foreligger data for 253 folkeavstemninger i den reformprosess som nå foregår. Mange kommuner har holdt flere avstemninger og har stilt spørsmål om flere alternativer. Analysen her baserer seg på forskjeller blant kommuner innen en aktuell sammenslåings-konstellasjonen og ser bare på symmetriske folkeavstemninger. Hovedresultatet er en positiv sammenheng mellom folketall og andel ja-stemmer til sammenslåing. Bekymringen for å bli overkjørt ser ut til å være større enn håpet om stordriftsgevinster for små kommuner. Analysen indikerer at politisk avstand betyr noe i tillegg – man ønsker ikke å bli styrt av et annet politisk flertall. Vi studerer også beslutningen om å holde avstemning og valgdeltagelsen. Små kommuner har høyere tilbøyelighet til å holde folkeavstemning. Små og rike kommuner innen konstellasjonen har høyere valgdeltagelse – de har mer å forsvare.

• Strand, Olaug; Wagner, Åse Kari H. & Foldnes, Njål (2017)
  Flerspråklige elevers leseresultater

  Klar framgang! Leseferdighet på 4. og 5. trinn i et femtenårsperspektiv, , s. 75-95. Doi: https://doi.org/10.18261/9788215030258-2017-5

• Gaasland, Ivar & Vårdal, Erling (2017)
  Matforsyning og klimapolitikk

  Samfunnsøkonomen, (6) , s. 39-47. - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Bøndene hevder at jordbruket må skjermes mot klimatiltak som rammer norsk matforsyning,målt ved selvforsyningsgraden. Ved å endre sammensetningen av jordbruksstøtten i favør av matvarer som forurenser lite i forhold til næringsinnhold, viser vi at klimagassutslippene fra norsk jordbruk kan kuttes mye, eksemplifisert ved 40%, uten at elvforsyningsgraden svekkes og samtidig som budsjettutgiftene kan reduseres kraftig. Politikkendringen vil i tillegg bringe kostholdet mer i retning av de offisielle kostrådene til Helsedirektoratet, som anbefaler at vi spiser mindre rødt kjøtt og mer planteprodukter og fisk. Resultatene gir støtte til synspunkter i grønn skattekommisjon om at klimautfordringene også må reflekteres i jordbrukspolitikken.

• Greaker, Mads; Heggedal, Tom-Reiel & Rosendahl, Knut Einar (2017)
  Environmental Policy and the Direction of Technical Change

  The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 120(4) , s. 1100-1138. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/sjoe.12254 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Should governments direct R&D from "dirty" into "clean" technologies? How im-portant is this compared to carbon pricing? We inquire into this, introducing twonovelties compared to recent literature. We introduce decreasing returns to R&D, andallow future carbon taxes to in‡uence current R&D decisions. Our results suggest thatgovernments should prioritize clean R&D. Dealing with major environmental problemsrequires R&D to shift to clean technology. However, with most researchers workingwith clean technology, both productivity spillovers and future risks of being replacedincrease. Consequently, the wedge between private and social value of an innovation islargest for clean technologies.

• Krüger, F; Clark, Todd E & Ravazzolo, Francesco (2017)
  Using Entropic Tilting to Combine BVAR Forecasts With External Nowcasts

  Journal of business & economic statistics, 35(3) , s. 470-485. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.2015.1087856

• Larsen, Erling Røed & Solli, Ingeborg Foldøy (2017)
  Born to run behind? Persisting birth month effects on earnings

  Labour Economics, 46, s. 200-210. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2016.10.005

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  The relative age effect is an established phenomenon in the literature, but estimates of its strength and duration vary. With Norwegian registry data we investigate how birth month affects earnings throughout the full course of life (20 to 68 years) for all Norwegian men born during the 1940s. We compare earnings across birth month within school cohorts, and observe earnings both at given points in time (“Social age”) and at given exact ages (“Biological age”). Our findings suggest that, albeit significant earnings differences at given ages, the effects cancel out over the full course of life and leave no imprint on life earnings.

• Bull, Hans Jacob; Flyen, Cecilie & Riis, Christian (2017)
  Forslag til finansierings- og forsikringsordninger for kommunal infrastruktur. Forslag og prosessrapport

  [Report Research]. KS

  Vis sammendrag

  Ny forsikringsordning for kommunal infrastruktur . Vi foreslår å etablere en ny separat naturskadeforsikringsordning for kommunal infrastruktur bortsett fra bygninger. Forsikringsordningen skal finansieres av kommunene og hvile på et solidarprinsipp. Avvikling av ordningen med statlige skjønnsmidler ved naturskader Vi foreslår å avvikle ordningen med statlige skjønnsmidler kanalisert til gjenoppretting etter naturskader. Frigjorte midler kanaliseres til nye tilskuddsordninger for kommunal infrastruktur, se neste pkt. Nye tilskuddsordninger Vi foreslår to nye tilskuddsordninger. a)Tilskudd til finansiering av tiltak som skjermer kommunal infrastruktur mot naturskader. b)Tilskudd til dekning av merkostnadene ved gjenoppretting til optimal standard etter naturskade. Mekanismer for å styrke insentivene til forebygging Risikoavlastningen i den foreslåtte forsikringsordningen (pkt. 2.1) kan tenkes å svekke kommunenes insentiver til å bruke ressurser på å redusere infrastrukturen mot risikoeksponering. Vi antyder to mekanismer som hver for seg eller sammen kan gjenopprette/styrke insentivene.

• Maurseth, Per Botolf & Medin, Hege (2017)
  Market-specific Sunk Export Costs: The Impact of Learning and Spillovers

  The World Economy, 40(6) , s. 1105-1127. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.12420 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Firms may face sunk costs when entering an export market. Previous studies have focused on global or country-specific sunk export costs. This study analyses the importance of market-specific sunk export costs (defining ‘market’ as a product–country combination). We also study how market-specific export costs can be affected by various kinds of learning and spillover effects. We use firm-level panel data for Norwegian seafood exports distributed on products and countries. The results lend support to the hypothesis of market-specific sunk costs. We also find evidence of learning and spillover effects, particularly within the same product group.

• Kuehnhanss, Colin; Murdoch, Zuzana, Geys, Benny & Heyndels, Bruno (2017)
  Identity, threat aversion, and civil servants’ policy preferences: Evidence from the European Parliament

  Public Administration, 95(4) , s. 1009-1025. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/padm.12348 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Distinct policy options are typically characterized by a number of advantages (or ‘opportunities’) and disadvantages (or ‘threats’). The preference for one option over another depends on how individuals within an organization perceive these opportunities and threats. In this article, we argue that individuals' identification with an organization's core aims and objectives constitutes a key determinant of this perception. We propose that stronger identification shifts individuals' attention towards potential threats rather than opportunities in the payoff distribution, encouraging avoidance of negative outcomes. Moreover, we argue that this ‘prevention focus’ in individuals' motivational basis will be stronger under negative than under positive selection strategies. An original survey experiment with civil servants in the European Parliament finds significant evidence supporting the empirical implications of our argument.

• Holm, Sverre & Holm, Martin Blomhoff (2017)
  Restrictions on wave equations for passive media

  Journal of the Acoustical Society of America, 142(4) , s. 1888-1896. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1121/1.5006059

• Borge, Lars-Erik; Steigum, Erling & Strandenes, Siri Pettersen (2017)
  Artikkel om progressiv beskatning vant artikkelprisen for 2016

  [Professional Article]. Samfunnsøkonomen, (Nr. 1) , s. 83-84.

• Brinch, Christian; Mogstad, Magne & Wiswall, Matthew (2017)
  Beyond LATE with a discrete instrument

  Journal of Political Economy, 125(4) , s. 985-1039. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1086/692712

• Eriksen, Eivind; Laudal, Olav Arnfinn & Siqveland, Arvid (2017)
  Noncommutative Deformation Theory

  CRC Press

• Grytten, Jostein Ivar; Skau, Irene & Sørensen, Rune Jørgen (2017)
  The impact of the mass media on obstetricians' behavior in Norway

  Health Policy, 121(9) , s. 986-993. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.healthpol.2017.07.007 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Little is known about how physicians and hospitals respond to the risk of being negatively exposed in the mass media. We assume that newspapers will cover events more closely in the areas where they have most of their circulation. Within such areas the likelihood of negative publicity increases. The research question is whether obstetricians respond to negative newspaper coverage by choosing the least risky method of delivery, i.e. Caesarean section. This was tested on a large set of data from the Medical Birth Registry of Norway for the period 2000–2011. The Registry contains detailed medical information about all deliveries, for both the mother and the infant. This set of data was merged with a set of data that contained information about newspaper coverage for the municipalities in which all hospitals were located. Altogether, more than 620 000 deliveries in 46 municipalities were included in the study. The data were analyzed using a hospital fixed effects regression. The main result was that newspaper coverage had a significant positive effect on the probability of having a Caesarean section. Several supplementary analyses supported the main finding. Altogether, our results indicate that obstetricians are sensitive to the risk of being exposed in the mass media. This is likely to be because obstetricians care about their reputation.

• Geys, Benny & Sørensen, Rune Jørgen (2017)
  Never Change a Winning Policy? Public Sector Performance and Politicians’ Preferences for Reforms

  Public Administration Review, 78(2) , s. 206-216. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/puar.12824 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Despite the increasing stress on performance in public sector organizations, there is still little empirical evidence on whether—and if so, how—politicians respond to performance information. This article addresses this research gap by linking registry statistics on school performance in Norway's 428 municipalities with data from an information experiment embedded in a survey of local politicians. Findings show that school performance bears only a weak relationship to politicians' preferences for resource-related reforms, but it strongly affects preferences for governance-related reforms, indicating the importance of accounting for heterogeneity across alternative types of (school) reforms. Moreover, local politicians are, on average, well informed about school performance. This reflects the force of local inhabitants' high information level on politicians' accountability.

• Holm, Joshua & Geys, Benny (2017)
  Social Identification and Redistribution in Heterogeneous Federations: Evidence from Germany and Belgium

  Comparative Political Studies, 51(9) , s. 1177-1207. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414017730081 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Recent evidence of increasing income heterogeneity within developed countries has reignited debates concerning the redistribution of income and wealth. In this article, we contribute to this debate by assessing the role of individuals’ jurisdictional identification for their preferences toward intrafederation redistributive financial flows. Incorporating insights from social identity theory in a model of redistributive taxation, we show that federal, rather than local, identification can lead individuals to shift their redistribution preferences independent of their narrowly defined personal economic interests. Moreover, contrary to conventional wisdom, welfare state support will sometimes be decreasing in national identification. We empirically assess these predictions using individual-level data from the 2008 German General Social Survey (ALLBUS) and a 2013-2014 survey among Belgian local politicians. Our findings provide strong support for the model’s core predictions in both settings

• Holm, Martin Blomhoff (2016)
  On the concavity of the consumption function with liquidity constraints

  Working Paper, Norges Bank, (14) Doi: https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2852369

• Lauritzen, Pål (2016)
  On the relations between conceptual and procedural knowledge and the ability to apply functions

  Mathematics and Education: Learning, Technology, Assessment – Festschrift in Honour of Lenni Haapasalo, , s. 87-100.

• Eriksen, Eivind (2016)
  Matematikk for økonomi og finans

  [Textbook]. Cappelen Damm Akademisk

• Larsen, Erling Røed (2016)
  Verdenshandelen og valget i USA, Formue 1/2016, s 4 – 9

  [Popular Science Article]. Formue, (1) , s. 4-9.

• Bjørnland, Hilde C & Thorsrud, Leif Anders (2016)
  Ringvirkninger i råvareproduserende land

  [Popular Science Article]. Samfunnsøkonomen, (1) , s. 40-41.

• Bjørnland, Hilde C; Maih, Junior & Larsen, Vegard Høghaug (2016)
  Oil and macroeconomic (in)stability

  Working Paper, Norges Bank, (12)

• Sørensen, Rune Jørgen (2016)
  After the immigration shock: The causal effect of immigration on electoral preferences

  Electoral Studies: an international journal on voting and electoral systems and strategy, 44, s. 1-14. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2016.06.009

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  The influx of immigrants to Norway over the last decades is a large-scale natural experiment. This paper exploits municipal-level variations in the immigrant population (1977–2011) to estimate the causal effects on voter support for the right-wing, anti-immigration Progress Party. The results indicate that voters keep incumbents accountable for permissive immigration policies. Immigration from non-Western countries (Africa, Asia, Latin America) has increased electoral support for the Progress Party. However, the effects are quite modest and noticeable only in the initial phases of immigration. Survey data covering ten elections (1989–2011) indicate a similar development in anti-immigration attitudes. The primary immigration shock tends to burn out quite fast as people get direct experience of immigrants on a daily basis.

• Eloranta, Jari; Ojala, Jari, Pehkonen, Jaakko & Bruno, Lars Christian (2016)
  Equality and Convergence in Nordic Societies in the Long Run: Europe and Other Comparative Mirrors

  ANU Centre for European Studies Briefing Paper Series,

• Bjørnland, Hilde C; Thorsrud, Leif Anders & Zahiri, Sepideh Khayati (2016)
  Do central banks respond timely to developments in the global economy?

  [Report Research]. Handelshøyskolen BI

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  Our analysis suggests; they do not! To arrive at this conclusion we construct a real-time data set of interest rate projections from central banks in three small open economies; New Zealand, Norway, and Sweden, and analyze if revisions to these projections (i.e., forward guidance) can be predicted by timely information. Doing so, we find a systematic role for forward looking international indicators in predict- ing the revisions to the interest rate projections in all countries. In contrast, using similar indexes for the domestic economy yields largely insignificant results. Furthermore, we find that revisions to forward guidance matter. Using a VAR identified with external instruments based on forecast errors from the predictive regressions, we show that the responses to output, inflation, the exchange rate and asset returns resemble those one typically associates with a conventional monetary policy shock.

• Foldnes, Njål (2016)
  The flipped classroom and cooperative learning: Evidence from a randomised experiment

  Active Learning in Higher Education, 17(1) , s. 39-49. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1177/1469787415616726 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  This article describes a study which compares the effectiveness of the flipped classroom relative to the traditional lecturebased classroom.We investigated two implementations of the flipped classroom. The first implementation did not actively encourage cooperative learning, with students progressing through the course at their own pace. With this implementation student examination scores did not differ between the lecture classes and the flipped classroom. The second implementation was organised with cooperative learning activities. In a randomised control-group pretest-posttest experiment student scores on a post-test and on the final examination were significantly higher for the flipped classroom group than for the control group receiving traditional lectures. This demonstrates that the classroom flip, if properly implemented with cooperative learning, can lead to increased academic performance.

• Bjørnland, Hilde C & Thorsrud, Leif Anders (2016)
  Boom or gloom? Examining the Dutch disease in two-speed economies

  Economic Journal, 126(598) , s. 2219-2256. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12302

• Sucarrat, Genaro (2016)
  Metode og økonometri - en moderne innføring (1. utgave)

  [Textbook]. Fagbokforlaget

• Riis, Christian (2016)
  An equilibrium characterization of an all-pay auction with certain and uncertain prizes.

  Games and Economic Behavior, 100, s. 431-436. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2016.09.007

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  In the important contribution “All pay auctions with certain and uncertain prizes” published in Minchuk and Sela (2014), the authors analyze an all pay auction with multiple prizes. The specific feature of the model is that all valuations are common except for the valuation of one of the prizes, for which contestants have private valuations. However, the equilibrium characterization derived in the paper is incorrect. This paper provides the correct equilibrium characterization of the model.

• Geys, Benny & Sørensen, Rune Jørgen (2016)
  Revenue scarcity and government outsourcing: Evidence from Norwegian local governments

  Public Administration, 94(3) , s. 769-788. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/padm.12262 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  It is often said that ‘necessity is the mother of invention’. In this article, we assess whether this also applies to the design of public authorities' service provision. In particular, we evaluate whether revenue scarcity – as an indicator of fiscal stress – induces government outsourcing. In contrast to previous studies, we exploit arguably exogenous variation in local government revenue across time and space to derive stronger inferences on the role of revenue scarcity for outsourcing. Using data from Norwegian local governments covering the period 1995–2012, our main results indicate that a decrease in local government revenues is linked to more outsourcing of both infrastructure and support services.

• Mauritzen, Johannes (2016)
  The effect of oil prices on field production: evidence from the Norwegian continental shelf

  Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 79(1) , s. 124-144. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12138 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  I use detailed field-level data on Norwegian offshore oil production and a semi-parametric additive model to control for the production profile of fields to estimate the effect of oil prices on production. I find no significant evidence of a concurrent reaction of field production to oil prices, though a modest lagged effect is found of the magnitude of approximately 2% to 7% for a $10 per barrel increase in the real price of oil.

• Helland, Leif (2016)
  Årsak og tilfeldighet: Modeller, eksperimenter og adferd i samfunnsvitenskapene.

  [Textbook]. Cappelen Damm Akademisk

• Foldnes, Njål & Olsson, Ulf H. (2016)
  A simple simulation technique for non-normal data with pre-specified skewness, kurtosis and covariance matrix

  Multivariate Behavioral Research, 51(2-3) , s. 207-219. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/00273171.2015.1133274

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  We present and investigate a simple way to generate non-normal data using linear combinations of independent generator (IG) variables. The simulated data have prespecified univariate skewness and kurtosis, and a given covariance matrix. In contrast to the widely used Vale-Maurelli (VM) transform, the obtained data is shown to have a non-Gaussian copula. Analytically, we obtain asymptotic robustness conditions for the IG distribution. Empirically, we show that popular test statistics in covariance analysis tend to reject true models more often under the IG transform than under the VM transform. This implies that overly optimistic evaluations of stimators and fit statistics in covariance sstructure analysis may be tempered by including the IG transform for non-normal data generation. We provide an implementation of the IG transform in the R environment.

• Aastveit, Knut Are; Jore, Anne Sofie & Ravazzolo, Francesco (2016)
  Identification and real-time forecasting of Norwegian business cycles

  International Journal of Forecasting, 32(2) , s. 283-292. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2015.06.006

• Hassan, Mamdouh & Geys, Benny (2016)
  Who Should Pick up the Bill? Distributing the Financial Burden of Technological Innovations in Schools

  Computers & Education, 94, s. 193-203. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compedu.2015.11.018 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Technological innovations in classrooms generally come with substantial financial price tags. Although the distribution of such financial costs is of critical importance to practitioners, (potential) users, and policy-makers, little is known about different stakeholders’ preferences towards who should pick up this bill. In this article, we exploit information obtained from a unique survey in Flanders (Belgium) to help fill this research gap. We thereby particularly assess how financing preferences depend on stakeholders’ role in the educational environment (i.e. public officials, school principals, teachers, ICT administrators and parents) and their knowledge about the true extent of technological innovations’ financial cost. Our main findings indicate that all stakeholders included in our analysis prefer to shift the financial burden of technological innovations at least to some extent onto other stakeholders. Yet, explicitly informing respondents about the high and diverse financial costs of tablets in schools tends to shift preferences towards funding models representing more equitable distributions of the financial burden.

• Cancela, Joao & Geys, Benny (2016)
  Explaining Voter Turnout: A Meta-Analysis of National and Subnational Elections

  Electoral Studies: an international journal on voting and electoral systems and strategy, 42(June) , s. 264-275. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2016.03.005 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Research about voter turnout has expanded rapidly in recent years. This article takes stock of this development by extending the meta-analysis of Geys (2006) in two main ways. First, we add 102 studies published between 2002 and 2015 to the initial sample of 83 studies. Overall, we document only minor changes to the original inferences. Second, since different processes might conceivably play at different levels of government, we exploit the larger sample to separately analyse the determinants of voter turnout in national versus subnational elections. We find that campaign expenditures, election closeness and registration requirements have more explanatory power in national elections, whereas population size and composition, concurrent elections, and the electoral system play a more important role for explaining turnout in subnational elections.

• Kreiberg, David; Söderström, Torsten & Wallentin, Fan Yang (2016)
  Errors-in-variables system identification using structural equation modeling

  Automatica, 66, s. 218-230. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.automatica.2015.12.007

• Natvik, Gisle James & Mirkov, Nikola (2016)
  Announcements of interest rate forecasts: Do policymakers stick to them?

  Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 48(5) , s. 901-920. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12321

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  If central banks value the ex post accuracy of their published forecasts, previously announced interest rate paths might influence the current policy rate. We explore if “forecast adherence” has affected monetary policy in New Zealand and Norway, where central banks have published their interest rate forecasts the longest. We derive and estimate policy rules with separate weights on past interest rate forecasts and find that they have explanatory power for current policy decisions, over and above their correlation with other conventional interest rate rule arguments.

• Fiva, Jon H. & Folke, Olle (2016)
  Mechanical and psychological effects of electoral reform

  British Journal of Political Science, 46(2) , s. 265-279. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123414000209 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  To understand how electoral reform affects political outcomes, one needs to assess its total effect, incorporating how the reform affects the outcomes given the political status quo (the mechanical effects) and the additional reactions of political agents (the psychological effects). We propose a framework that allow us to ascertain the relative magnitude of mechanical and various psychological effects. The empirical approach is based on pairwise comparisons of actual and counterfactual seat allocation outcomes. We use the design to analyze a nationwide municipal electoral reform in Norway, which changed the seat allocation method from D'Hondt to Modified Sainte-Laguë. We document clear psychological effects.

• Aastveit, Knut Are; Bjørnland, Hilde C & Thorsrud, Leif Anders (2016)
  The World Is Not Enough! Small Open Economies and Regional Dependence

  The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 118(1) , s. 168-195. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/sjoe.12126

• Hassan, Mamdouh & Geys, Benny (2016)
  Expectations, Realizations, and Approval of Tablet Computers in an Educational Setting

  Journal of educational change, 17(2) , s. 171-190. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10833-015-9270-4 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  The introduction of new technologies in classrooms is often thought to offer great potential for advancing learning. In this article, we investigate the relationship between such expectations and the post-implementation evaluation of a new technology in an educational setting. Building on psychological research, we argue that i) high expectations (ex ante) can undermine the approval ratings of new technologies (ex post); and ii) individuals’ post-implementation evaluations are more likely to exceed their expectations when they can exert power over the introduction of a new technology. We test these predictions on a sample of 750 respondents from primary and secondary schools in Flanders with and without tablet computers. Our findings are supportive of both theoretical predictions.

• Blockmans, Tom; Geys, Benny, Heyndels, Bruno & Mahieu, Bram (2016)
  Bargaining complexity and the duration of government formation: evidence from Flemish municipalities

  Public Choice, 167(1-2) , s. 131-143. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11127-016-0333-8 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Government formation processes have attracted a substantial amount of scholarly attention. Yet, only few scholars try to explain the duration of government formations. This article extends the latter literature by examining the relation between the complexity of the bargaining environment and the duration of government formations at the local government level. We show that increased bargaining complexity - reflected in parties’ ideological similarity, a larger number of potential bargaining partners, and an election result allowing for a larger set of mathematically feasible governments - is associated with longer bargaining delays.

• Bluwstein, Kristina & Canova, Fabio (2016)
  Beggar-thy-neighbor? The international effects of ECB unconventional monetary policy measures

  The International Journal of Central Banking, 12(3) , s. 69-120.

• Jøreskog, Karl Gustaf; Olsson, Ulf H. & Wallentin, Fan Yang (2016)
  Multivariate Analysis with LISREL

  Springer

• Ostergaard, Charlotte; Schindele, Ibolya & Vale, Bent (2016)
  Social Capital and the Viability of Stakeholder-Oriented Firms: Evidence from Savings Banks

  Review of Finance, 20(5) , s. 1673-1718. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1093/rof/rfv047

  Vis sammendrag

  We show that social capital improves the viability of stakeholder-oriented rms operating in competitive markets. Studying exits from the population of Norwegian savings banks after deregulations, we nd that banks located in communities with high social capital have a higher probability of survival, but no similar e ect exists for commercial banks. Norwegian savings banks are collectively governed by their stakeholders and we provide evidence that social capital improves the e ciency of stakeholder governance. In high social capital areas, banks raise more deposits locally, distribute more of their surplus for altruistic purposes, and operate more locally-focused branch networks.

• Geys, Benny & Mause, Karsten (2016)
  The Limits of Electoral Control: Evidence from Last-Term Politicians

  Legislative Studies Quarterly, 41(4) , s. 873-898. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/lsq.12136 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  In modern democracies, politicians’ accountability is often linked to the disciplining mechanism of electoral control. For politicians in their final term, this mechanism is impaired. Using a novel dataset covering 910 members of the UK House of Commons active within the period 1997-2010, we investigate how reduced electoral control affects last-term MPs’ trade-off between work effort inside parliament, leisure, and outside interests. Our main contributions lie in providing the first explicit consideration of (a) MPs’ final-term intra-/extra-parliamentary work balance, and (b) MPs’ reasons for leaving parliament (i.e. retirement, career change, electoral defeat). These extensions provide important fresh insights concerning the boundaries of elections’ disciplining power.

• Cox, Gary W.; Fiva, Jon H. & Smith, Daniel M. (2016)
  The Contraction Effect: How Proportional Representation Affects Mobilization and Turnout

  Journal of Politics, 78(4) , s. 1249-1263. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1086/686804 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  A substantial body of research examines whether increasing the proportionality of an electoral system increases turnout, mostly based on cross-national comparisons. In this study, we offer two main contributions to the previous literature. First, we show that moving from a single-member district system to proportional representation in multimember districts should, according to recent theories of elite mobilization, produce a contraction in the distribution of mobilizational effort across districts and, hence, a contraction in the distribution of turnout rates. Second, we exploit a within-country panel data set based on stable subnational geographic units before and after Norway’s historic 1919 electoral reform in order to test various implications stemming from the contraction hypothesis. We find significant support for the predictions of the elite mobilization models.

• Daniele, Gianmarco & Geys, Benny (2016)
  Family Ties and Socio-Economic Outcomes in High vs Low Income Countries

  Journal of Development Studies, 52(6) , s. 813-823. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/00220388.2015.1098630 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Alesina and Giuliano (J. Econ. Growth, 15(2), 2010) illustrate that strong family ties lead to lower geographical mobility and reduced labor force participation of young and female individuals. We extend their analysis by arguing that the effect of strong family ties on economic outcomes depends on a country’s level of economic and institutional development. This cross-country heterogeneity arises because strong family ties not only foster traditional family values (which have disruptive effects on economic outcomes), but also provide economically valuable social networks – especially in societies characterized by weak institutions and limited market access. Empirical evidence using the European and World Value Surveys (EVS/WVS) is supportive of our theoretical argument

• Exbrayat, Nelly & Geys, Benny (2016)
  Economic Integration, Corporate Tax Incidence and Fiscal Compensation

  The World Economy, 39(11) , s. 1792-1811. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.12323 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Higher corporate taxes are often argued to depress wages (a tax incidence effect), while higher wages may require compensation via lower corporate tax rates (a fiscal compensation effect). Yet, existing empirical evidence ignores that i) both effects are likely to occur simultaneously (necessitating a joint estimation approach), and ii) capital mobility might play a critical moderating role for the strength of both effects. Using a panel dataset comprising 24 OECD countries over the period 1982-2007, we address both these deficiencies. This clearly illustrates the simultaneous existence of tax incidence and fiscal compensation effects. Moreover, capital mobility (and the ensuing relative bargaining power of economic agents) has a significant influence on both the prevalence and strength of these effects.

• Pettenuzzo, Davide & Ravazzolo, Francesco (2016)
  Optimal Portfolio Choice Under Decision-Based Model Combinations

  Journal of applied econometrics, 31(7) , s. 1312-1332. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.2502

• Freier, Ronny; Geys, Benny & Holm, Joshua (2016)
  Religious Heterogeneity and Fiscal Policy: Evidence from German Reunification

  Journal of Urban Economics, 94, s. 1-12. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2016.05.001 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Theoretical work based on social identity theory predicts that population diversity undermines redistributive public policies. This article tests this proposition exploiting an exogenous shock in diversity due to Germany's reuni cation. In contrast to previous work on ethno-linguistic or racial heterogeneity, we speci cally analyze religious diversity, which is an increasingly relevant social cleavage in many countries. Our main results corroborate that increasing religious diversity leads to a change in scal policies in Bavarian municipalities over the 1983-2005 period. Moreover, we nd some evidence of declining individual-level local identi cation over the post-reuni cation period, which suggests that the observed scal e ects are indeed linked to the theoretical mechanism of individuals' social identi cation. Finally, we highlight an important mediating role for the democratic process, since the observed scal e ects strengthen considerably following Bavarian municipalities' rst local elections after the reuni cation migration wave (March 1996) and a legal change allowing local referenda on public policies (October 1995).

• Halvorsen, Jørn Inge & Jacobsen, Dag Henning (2016)
  The bank-lending channel empirically revisited

  Journal of Financial Stability, 27(Dec.) , s. 95-105. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfs.2016.10.004

• Lombardi, Marco J & Ravazzolo, Francesco (2016)
  On the correlation between commodity and equity returns: Implications for portfolio allocation

  Journal of Commodity Markets, 2(1) , s. 45-57. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcomm.2016.07.005

• Gaasland, Ivar & Gabrielsen, Tommy Staahl (2016)
  Bruk av markeder og konkurranse i omsetning av matvarer – utfordringer og muligheter

  [Report Research]. Samfunns- og næringslivsforskning (SNF)

  Vis sammendrag

  Rapporten drøfter samfunnsøkonomiske og konkurransepolitiske effekter av markedsreguleringene for jordbruksvarer. Det skisseres mulige endringer med tanke på effektivitetsforbedringer som kan kommer bønder, forbrukere og skattebetalere til gode. Mer markedsbaserte løsninger er et fellestrekk ved endringene som drøftes, men under ulike forutsetninger om importkonkurranse.

• Rebnor, Robert & Vårdal, Erling (2016)
  Er dollarens dager talte? Globale valutaer

  Samfunnsøkonomen, 130(1) , s. 28-38.

• Berge, Lars Ivar Oppedal; Bjorvatn, Kjetil, Galle, Simon, Miguel, Edward, Posner, Daniel, Tungodden, Bertil & Zhang, Kelly (2016)
  Measuring ethnic preferences: New experimental evidence

  [Popular Science Article]. http://www.voxeu.org/,

• Rattsø, Jørn & Sørensen, Rune Jørgen (2016)
  Public–private political cleavage: what happens after retirement?

  Public Choice, 166(3-4) , s. 315-333. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11127-016-0324-9

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  Political preferences of public employees differ from those of workers in the private sector. The former are more likely to vote for left-wing parties and orient themselves ideologically towards the left. This political cleavage can be understood as the result of occupational incentives, or alternatively, as ideological self-selection whereby individuals favoring government solutions seek employment in the public sector. We test the selection hypothesis by estimating the effects of public versus private occupational sector on political preferences before and after retirement. The data are from the Norwegian Election Surveys and cover nine national elections between 1977 and 2009. The research design addresses a series of cross-sectional data and the key challenge of endogenous retirement is handled with instrumental variables. Party choice, ideological orientation, and public spending preferences are shown to change following retirement, and former private and public employees converge. The results reject selection based on ‘hard-wired’ political preferences.

• Matsen, Egil; Natvik, Gisle James & Torvik, Ragnar (2016)
  Petro populism

  Journal of Development Economics, 118, s. 1-12. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2015.08.010

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  We aim to explain petro populism|the excessive use of oil revenues to buy political support. To reap the full gains of natural resource income, politicians need to remain in o ce over time. Hence, even a rent-seeking incumbent who prioritizes his own welfare above that of citizens, will want to provide voters with goods and services if it promotes his probability of remaining in o ce. While this incentive bene ts citizens under the rule of rent-seekers, it adversely motivates benevolent policymakers to short-term overprovision of goods and services. In equilibrium, politicians of all types indulge in excessive resource extraction, while voters reward policies they realize cannot be sustained over time. Moreover, overextraction might even be reinforced as voters become better informed.

• Aakre, Stine; Helland, Leif & Hovi, Jon (2016)
  When Does Informal Enforcement Work?

  Journal of Conflict Resolution, 60(7) , s. 1312-1340. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002714560349 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  We study experimentally how enforcement influences public goods provision when subjects face two free-rider options that roughly parallel the nonparticipation and noncompliance options available for countries in relation to multilateral environmental agreements (MEAs). Our results add to the MEA literature in two ways. First, they suggest that compliance enforcement will fail to enhance compliance in the absence of participation enforcement. Second, they indicate that compliance enforcement will boost compliance significantly in the presence of participation enforcement. Our results also add to the experimental literature on public goods provision, again in two ways. First, they reveal that previous experimental findings of enforcement boosting cooperation are valid only in settings with forced (or enforced) participation. Second, they show that subjects’ willingness to allocate costly punishment points is significantly stronger when the enforcement system permits punishment of both types of free riding than when it permits punishment of only one type.

• Billio, Monica; Casarin, Roberto, Ravazzolo, Francesco & Dijk, Herman K. van (2016)
  Interconnections Between Eurozone and us Booms and Busts Using a Bayesian Panel Markov-Switching VAR Model

  Journal of applied econometrics, 31(7) , s. 1352-1370. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.2501

• Nenov, Plamen; Larsen, Erling Røed & Sommervoll, Dag Einar (2016)
  Thick-market effects, housing heterogeneity, and the determinants of transaction seasonality

  Economic Journal, 126(598) , s. 2402-2423. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12305

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  This article uses cross-sectional variation in transaction seasonality and a search-theoretic framework to develop a test for thick-market effects from matching efficiency. The test relates the extent of transaction seasonality to the degree of horizontal housing heterogeneity. We find a strong positive association between measures of seasonality and housing heterogeneity using a transaction level dataset for Norway, which is consistent with the presence of thick-market effects. These results also show that the degree of horizontal heterogeneity of the housing stock is an important determinant of the extent of seasonality in a housing market.

• Garibaldi, Pietro; Moen, Espen Rasmus & Sommervoll, Dag Einar (2016)
  Competitive on-the-job search

  Review of economic dynamics, 19, s. 88-107. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.red.2015.10.001

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  The paper proposes a model of on-the-job search and industry dynamics in which search is directed. Firms permanently di er in productivity levels, their production function features constant returns to scale, and search costs are convex in search intensity. Wages are determined in a competitive manner, as rms advertise wage contracts (expected discounted incomes) so as to balance wage costs and search costs (queue length). Firms are assumed to sort out their coordination problems with their employees in such a way that the on-the-job search behavior of workers maximizes the match surplus. Our model has several novel features. First, it is close in spirit to the competitive model, with a tractable and unique equilibrium, and is therefore useful for empirical testing. Second, on-the-job search is an e cient response to rm heterogeneities and convex search costs. Third, the equilibrium leans towards a job ladder, where unemployed workers apply to low-productivity rms o ering low wages, and then gradually move on to more productive, higher-paying rms. With a continuum of rm types, the job ladder i strict, in the sense that there is a one-to-one correspondence between the productivity of the current employer and that of the rms she searches for. The paper also contributes methodologically, as the existence proof requires a version of Schauder's xed point theorem that is not commonly used by economists. Finally, our model o ers di erent implications for the dynamics of job-to-job transitions than existing models of random search.

• Borge, Lars-Erik; Steigum, Erling & Strandenes, Siri Pettersen (2016)
  Artikkel om prioritering av vegprosjekter vant artikkelprisen for 2015

  [Professional Article]. Samfunnsøkonomen,

• Johnsen, Thore; Holden, Steinar & Moen, Espen Rasmus (2016)
  Valg av kapitaliseringsrente i erstatningssaker

  Samfunnsøkonomen, (6) , s. 18-32.

• Fiva, Jon H. & Halse, Askill Harkjerr (2016)
  Local favoritism in at-large proportional representation systems

  Journal of Public Economics, 143(November) , s. 15-26. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2016.08.002 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Pork barrel spending is typically attributed to the strategic behavior of political elites hoping to be electorally rewarded by voters residing in their districts. Such behavior is expected to depend on the incentives imposed by the electoral system. We estimate the causal effect of local representation in a closed-list proportional representation system where individual candidates have no clear electoral incentive to favor their hometown. Using data from Norwegian regional governments, we still find a hometown bias. We document that municipalities with a representative on the regional council from the same party as the regional governor tend to obtain more funding for local investments. Citizens also tend to vote more often for parties whose gubernatorial candidate is from their own hometown, consistent with expectations of particularistic benefits. A possible explanation is that regional council members are often recruited from local politics and remain loyal to their roots. We find no evidence that regional council experience affects politicians' future career prospects at the local level.

• Murdoch, Zuzana; Trondal, Jarle & Geys, Benny (2016)
  Representative bureaucracy and seconded national government officials in the European Commission

  Regulation & Governance, 10(4) , s. 335-349. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/rego.12089 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  The bureaucratic arms of modern international organizations increasingly consist of staff with ambiguous organizational affiliations. This article analyses implications of this trend from the perspective of the Representative Bureaucracy – using seconded national experts (SNEs) in the European Commission (Commission) as the empirical laboratory. Using a variety of datasets, we unveil Commission SNEs’ profiles (to assess their passive representativeness) and link these profiles to their role perceptions (to evaluate their potential for active representation). This illustrates that Commission SNEs’ background characteristics do not match those of their constituent population (i.e. the EU27 population) – suggesting a lack of passive representativeness. However, we also find that their role perceptions are correlated with the policy preferences of their home country population: i.e., SNEs from countries favoring stronger national rather than European regulatory and policy-making powers are more likely to see themselves as a representative of their home country government. This suggests a potential for active representation in terms of SNEs’ home country’s policy preferences.

• Sørensen, Rune Jørgen (2016)
  The impact of state television on voter turnout

  British Journal of Political Science, 49(1) , s. 257-278. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1017/S000712341600048X

• Grytten, Jostein Ivar; Monkerud, Lars Chr., Skau, Irene, Eskild, Anne, Sørensen, Rune Jørgen & Saugstad, Ola Didrik (2016)
  Saving Newborn Babies – The Benefits of Interventions in Neonatal Care in Norway over More Than 40 Years

  Health Economics, 26(3) , s. 352-370. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/hec.3314 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  The aim of this study was to examine the effect that the introduction of new medical interventions at birth has had on mortality among newborn babies in Norway during the period 1967–2011. During this period, there has been a significant decline in mortality, in particular for low birth weight infants. We identified four interventions that together explained about 50% of the decline in early neonatal and infant mortality: ventilators, antenatal steroids, surfactant and insure. The analyses were performed on a large set of data, encompassing more than 1.6 million deliveries (Medical Birth Registry of Norway). The richness of the data allowed us to perform several robustness tests. Our study indicates that the introduction of new medical interventions has been a very important channel through which the decline in mortality among newborn babies occurred during the second half of the last century.

• Nenov, Plamen (2016)
  Endogenous Leverage and Advantageous Selection in Credit Markets

  The Review of financial studies, 30(11) , s. 3888-3920. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhw077 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  I study asset price amplification in an asymmetric information model. Entrepreneurs issue debt to finance investments in a physical asset. They have private information about their success probabilities. For a given debt level, higher asset prices require entrepreneurs to invest more of their own funds. This makes bad entrepreneurs more reluctant to mimic good ones; as a result, good entrepreneurs increase their equilibrium leverage and invest more, and this amplifies the initial asset price increase. This model generates predictions about the credit market that are qualitatively consistent with existing evidence.

• Larsen, Erling Røed (2015)
  Hva skjer – med Norge og verden?

  [Popular Science Article]. Formue, (1) , s. 4-11.

• Bjørnland, Hilde C & Thorsrud, Leif Anders (2015)
  Commodity prices and fiscal policy design: Procyclical despite a rule

  CAMP Working Paper Series, (5) Doi: https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2777838

• Sucarrat, Genaro (2015)
  Metode og økonometri -- en moderne innføring (midlertidig utgave)

  [Textbook]. Fagbokforlaget

• Iachan, Felipe S.; Nenov, Plamen & Simsek, Alp (2015)
  The choice channel of financial innovation

  NBER Working Paper Series, Doi: https://doi.org/10.3386/w21686

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2015)
  Når ulikhetene blir for store

  Tidsskrift for samfunnsforskning (TfS), (3) , s. 324-338.

• Holm, Martin Blomhoff (2015)
  Effekten av inntektsusikkerhet på husholdningenes sparing i Norge etter finanskrisen

  Samfunnsøkonomen, (6) , s. 20-25.

• Bjørnland, Hilde C & Thorsrud, Leif Anders (2015)
  Applied Time Series for Macroeconomics

  [Textbook]. Gyldendal Akademisk

• Foldnes, Njål & Olsson, Ulf (2015)
  Correcting too much or too little? The performance of three chi-square corrections

  Multivariate Behavioral Research, 50(5) , s. 533-543. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/00273171.2015.1036964

• Lauritzen, Pål (2015)
  Slik bruker du eksamenskalkulatoren HP 10bII+

  [Textbook]. Cappelen Damm Akademisk

• Helland, Leif & Sørensen, Rune Jørgen (2015)
  Partisan bias, electoral volatility, and government efficiency

  Electoral Studies: an international journal on voting and electoral systems and strategy, 39, s. 117-128. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2015.05.002

• Heggedal, Tom-Reiel; Moen, Espen Rasmus & Riis, Christian (2015)
  Agglomerasjonsmodell

  [Report Research]. Handelshøyskolen BI

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  Agglomerasjonsffekter en samlebetegnelse for svært ulike mekanismer som har det til felles at de stimuleres av økt befolkningstetthet. Det er grunn til å tro at infrastrukturinvesteringer som knytter befolkningskonsentrasjoner tettere sammen, vil kunne gi effekter langs flere av de samme dimensjonene. Vi vil derfor ikke her forsøke å identifisere enkeltårsaker, men benytte estimater fra etablerte studier for makroeffekter av økt effektiv populasjon som en tilnærming - riktignok med den viktige modifikasjon at vi tar eksplisitt hensyn til at avstand har en dempende effekt.

• Heggedal, Tom-Reiel; R, Moen Espen & Riis, Christian (2015)
  Arbeidstilbudsmodell

  [Report Research]. Handelshøyskolen BI

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  Dette modellnotatet presenterer prinsippene for beregning av arbeidsmarkedsvirkninger i merverdianalyser av samferdselsinvesteringer.

• Bjørnland, Hilde C & Thorsrud, Leif Anders (2015)
  Hva skjer når oljeprisen faller? (Aktuell kommentar)

  [Professional Article]. Samfunnsøkonomen, 129(2) , s. 22-29.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2015)
  Globalisering

  Magma forskning og viten,

• Bjørnland, Hilde C & Larsen, Vegard Høghaug (2015)
  Oil and macroeconomic (in)stability

  CAMP Working Paper Series, (7) Doi: https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2842560

• Maurseth, Per Botolf; Holmen, Rasmus Bøgh & Løge, Tori Haukland (2015)
  Den norske IKT-næringens verdiskapingsbidrag

  [Report Research]. Menon

• Nenov, Plamen (2015)
  Regional Reallocation and Housing Markets in a Model of Frictional Migration

  Review of economic dynamics, 18(4) , s. 863-880. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.red.2015.08.002

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  Migration frictions are important for understanding key features of gross migration and housing markets. This paper studies a multi-region equilibrium model with frictional migration. Idiosyncratic preference shocks, a mobility cost, and imperfectly directed migration lead to slow worker reallocation in response to changes in local conditions. This leads to a dependence of local house prices on the history of labor market shocks. The model accounts for the comovements of unemployment and rental and house prices with gross migration observed in a panel of U.S. cities. Structural estimation reveals a high mobility cost for unemployed workers and a low probability of directed migration. Both of these imply that regional reallocation has a limited importance for the aggregate labor market and that the e ects of housing markets on reallocation are small.

• Geys, Benny (2015)
  Looks Good, You're Hired? Evidence from Extra-Parliamentary Activities of German Parliamentarians

  The German Economic Review, 16(1) , s. 1-12. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/geer.12041

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  Politicians have been shown to benefit electorally from an attractive physical appearance. Employing data on 614 German MPs, this note explores whether it also affects their success/failure in the market for extra-parliamentary activities. An attractive physical appearance is found to mainly benefit female MPs, especially for private-sector jobs. This is particularly driven by MPs’ perceived likability. While MP’s perceived beauty is shown to have no direct effects for extra-parliamentary activities, our findings suggest important indirect effects.

• Daniele, Gianmarco & Geys, Benny (2015)
  Organized Crime, Institutions and Political Quality: Empirical Evidence from Italian Municipalities

  Economic Journal, 125(586) , s. F233-F255. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12237 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  This article assesses how legal institutions affect the influence of politically active criminal organisations on the human capital of elected politicians using data from over 1,500 Southern Italian municipalities in the period 1985–2011. It exploits municipal government dissolutions imposed by the national government for (presumed) mafia infiltration as a source of exogenous variation in the presence of politically active criminal organisations. The results support theoretical predictions that the average education level of local politicians significantly increases when active mafia infiltration of local politics is remedied through the implementation of a stricter legal-institutional framework.

• Iachan, Felipe S. & Nenov, Plamen (2015)
  Information quality and crises in regime-change games

  Journal of Economic Theory, 158, s. 739-768. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2014.03.005

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  When crises potentially originate from coordination failures, does a deterioration in the quality of the information available to market participants contribute towards instability? We address this question in a general global game of regime change with a unique equilibrium and illustrate the implications in a debt rollover application. We show that a reduction in the quality of information increases the likelihood of regime change, thus reducing stability, when the net payo in the case of a successful attack is more sensitive to the fundamentals than the net payo in the case of status quo survival. We also discuss welfare implications.

• Daniele, Gianmarco & Geys, Benny (2015)
  Interpersonal Trust and Welfare State Support

  European Journal of Political Economy, 39, s. 1-12. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2015.03.005

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  The economic importance of the welfare state has increased strongly over time, which has generated a vast academic literature studying the determinants of (preferences towards) redistribution. This article argues that citizens’ trust in their fellow citizens can play a central role for welfare state support, because it buttresses the belief that others will not use the welfare system inappropriately. Using the fourth wave of the European Social Survey, we confirm a strong positive association between interpersonal trust and welfare state support (controlling for institutional trust). We also show that: i) this link is driven at least in part by the mechanism discussed above; ii) causality runs from interpersonal trust to welfare state support (using a sub-sample of second generation immigrants); and iii) the effect of interpersonal trust appears conditional on the perceived quality of a country’s institutions.

• Sucarrat, Genaro; Grønneberg, Steffen & Escribano, Alvaro (2015)
  Estimation and inference in univariate and multivariate log-GARCH-X models when the conditional density is unknown

  Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, 100, s. 582-594. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csda.2015.12.005

• Chen, Yi-Chun; Luo, Xiao & Qu, Chen (2015)
  Rationalizability in general situations

  Economic Theory, Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00199-015-0882-y

• Cools, Sara; Fiva, Jon H. & Kirkebøen, Lars Johannessen (2015)
  Causal Effects of Paternity Leave on Children and Parents

  The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 117(3) , s. 801-828. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/sjoe.12113

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  Reserving a share of the parental leave period for fathers is considered necessary for inducing fathers to take leave, and for men's increased participation in child-rearing. We investigate how a parental leave reform directed towards fathers impacted leave taking, and in turn children's and parents' long term outcomes. A paternal leave quota greatly increases the share of men taking paternity leave. We find evidence that children's school performance improves as a result, particularly in families where the father has higher education than the mother. We find no evidence that paternity leave counters the traditional allocation of parents' labor supply.

• Marin, J. Miguel & Sucarrat, Genaro (2015)
  Financial density selection

  European Journal of Finance, 21(13-14) , s. 1195-1213. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/1351847X.2012.706906

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  We propose and study simple but flexible methods for density selection of skewed versions of the two most popular density classes in finance, the exponential power distribution and the t distribution. For the first type of method, which simply consists of selecting a density by means of an information criterion, the Schwarz criterion stands out since it performs well across density categories, and in particular when the Data Generating Process is normal. For the second type of method, General-to-Specific density selection, the simulations suggest that it can improve the recovery rate in predictable ways by changing the significance level. This is useful because it enables us to increase (reduce) the recovery rate of non-normal densities by increasing (reducing) the significance level, if one wishes to do so. The third type of method is a generalisation of the second type, such that it can be applied across an arbitrary number of density classes, nested or non-nested. Finally, the methods are illustrated in an empirical application.

• Bjørnland, Hilde C; Thorsrud, Leif Anders & Aastveit, Knut Are (2015)
  What drives oil prices? Emerging versus Developed Economies

  Journal of applied econometrics, 30(7) , s. 1013-1028. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.2406

• Daniele, Gianmarco & Geys, Benny (2015)
  Public support for European fiscal integration in times of crisis

  Journal of European Public Policy, 22(5) , s. 650-670. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/13501763.2014.988639 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  The current economic crisis has triggered fierce debates among policy-makers and the media across and within European countries about the need for a closer European Fiscal Union. Using a novel dataset derived from the Eurobarometer surveys, this article investigates European citizens’ opinions towards such fiscal integration. We find that both country-level variables (such as expected country-level costs/benefits) and individual-level variables (such as distrust towards EU institutions, ideology and altruism) have significant explanatory power. We also uncover a notable intra-generational divide across young citizens of Euro creditor and Euro debtor countries, and show that this reflects their varying expectations regarding the future costs and benefits of fiscal integration. This demonstrates that the same demographic groups in different countries may have widely varying positions towards fiscal integration.

• Bjørnland, Hilde C & Maih, Junior (2015)
  Monetary policy and exchange rate stabilization in Norway and Sweden

  Reform Capacity and Macroeconomic Performance in the Nordic Countries, , s. 136-162. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198717102.003.0010

• Heggedal, Tom-Reiel & Rosendahl, Knut Einar (2015)
  Norsk klimapolitikk i et globalt perspektiv

  Magma forskning og viten, 18(5) , s. 65-77. - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

• Steigum, Erling (2015)
  En kommentar til Nasjonalbudsjettet 2016

  [Professional Article]. Samfunnsøkonomen, (Nr. 5)

• Maurseth, Per Botolf (2015)
  Norway and the BRICS (III): Trade, Ivestments and Opportunities

  [Report Research]. Norsk Utenrikspolitisk Institutt

• Asatryan, Zareh; Feld, Lars P. & Geys, Benny (2015)
  Partial Fiscal Decentralization and Subnational Government Fiscal Discipline: Empirical Evidence from OECD Countries

  Public Choice, 163(3-4) , s. 307-320. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11127-015-0250-2 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Recent theoretical research suggests that financing sub-national governments’ expenditure out of own revenue sources is linked to more responsible budgeting, because the financial implications of spending decisions then are internalized within a jurisdiction. We test this proposition empirically on a sample of 23 OECD countries over the 1975–2000 period, and find evidence in line with the hypothesis that greater revenue decentralization (measured as sub-national governments’ share of own source tax revenues in general government tax revenue) is associated with improved sub-national government budget deficits/surpluses. This finding is cross-validated with a novel, independent dataset consisting of all 34 OECD member states from 2002 to 2008.

• Steigum, Erling & Thøgersen, Øystein (2015)
  A crisis not wasted. Institutional and structural reforms behind Norway's strong macroeconomic performance.

  Reform Capacity and Macroeconomic Performance in the Nordic Countries, , s. 246-273. Doi: https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2377183

• Norli, Øyvind; Ostergaard, Charlotte & Schindele, Ibolya (2015)
  Liquidity and Shareholder Activism

  The Review of financial studies, 28(2) , s. 486-520. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhu070

  Vis sammendrag

  Blockholders' incentives to intervene in corporate governance are weakened by free-rider problems and high costs of activism. Theory suggests activists may recoup expenses through informed trading of target rms' stock when stocks are liquid. We show that stock liquidity increases the probability of activism but does less so for potentially overvalued rms for which privately informed blockholders may have greater incentives to sell their stake than to intervene. We also document that activists accumulate more stocks in targets when stock is more liquid. We conclude that liquidity helps overcome the free-rider problem and induces activism via preactivism accumulation of target rms' shares. (JEL G14, G34)

• Cools, Sara; Markussen, Simen & Strøm, Marte (2015)
  Menns og kvinners sykefravær: Hvilken rolle spiller antall barn?

  Søkelys på arbeidslivet, 32(4) , s. 325-343. Doi: https://doi.org/10.18261/issn.1504-7989-2017-04-03 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

• Chen, Kaiji & Flores, Alfonso Irarrazabal (2015)
  The role of allocative efficiency in a decade of recovery

  Review of economic dynamics, 18(3) , s. 523-550. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.red.2014.09.008

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  The Chilean economy experienced a decade of sustained growth in aggregate output and productivity after the 1982 nancial crisis. This paper analyzes the role of allocative e¢ ciency on total factor productivity (TFP) in the manufacturing sector by applying the methodology of Hsieh and Klenow (2009) to establishment data from the Chilean manu- facturing census. We nd that a reduction in resource misallocation accounts for about 40 percent of the growth in manufacturing TFP between 1983 and 1996. In particular, a reduc- tion in the least productive plants implicit output subsidies is the primary reason for the reduction in resource misallocation during this period. Moreover, these plants enjoyed above industry-average growth in physical productivity, contributing to the overall improvement in e¢ cient TFP after the nancial crisis. Our evidence suggests that Chile s banking reform during the early and mid-1980s is likely to have played an important role in the observed improvement in allocative e¢ ciency.

• Steigum, Erling; Borge, Lars-Erik & Strandenes, Siri Pettersen, (2015)
  Artikkel om bokpriser vant prisen for 2014

  [Professional Article]. Samfunnsøkonomen, (Nr. 1) , s. 87-88.

• Grytten, Jostein Ivar; Monkerud, Lars Christian & Sørensen, Rune Jørgen (2015)
  Practice Guidelines and Practice Variation: Diagnostic Technology in Maternity Care

  Health Services Research (HSR), , s. 1-14. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4899-7573-7_162-1

• Trondal, Jarle; Murdoch, Zuzana & Geys, Benny (2015)
  National officials working for the Commission display a surprising amount of independence from their own governments

  EUROPP - European Politics and Policy,

• Naimy, Zainab; Grytten, Jostein Ivar, Monkerud, Lars Christian & Eskild, Anne (2015)
  The prevalence of pre-eclampsia in migrant relative to native Norwegian women: A population-based study

  BJOG: An International Journal of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, 122(6) , s. 859-865. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/1471-0528.12978

• Trondal, Jarle; Murdoch, Zuzana & Geys, Benny (2015)
  Representative Bureaucracy and the Role of Expertise in Politics

  Politics and Governance, 3(1) , s. 26-36. Doi: https://doi.org/10.17645/pag.v3i1.65 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  The vast majority of existing studies on bureaucratic representation focus on bureaucracies’ permanent and internal staff. Yet, the rising sophistication of modern democracies and the technocratization of political life are gradually inducing an increased reliance on external experts to assist in the development and implementation of policy decisions. This trend, we argue, raises the need to extend studies of bureaucratic representation to such external and non-permanent experts in governmental affairs. In this article, we take a first step in this direction using seconded national experts (SNEs) in the European Commission as our empirical laboratory. Our results highlight that Commission SNEs do not appear representative of their constituent population (i.e., the EU-27 population) along a number of socio-demographic dimensions. Moreover, we find that the role perception of “experts” is primarily explained by organizational affiliation, and only secondarily by demographic characteristics (except, of course, education).

• Trondal, Jarle; Murdoch, Zuzana & Geys, Benny (2015)
  On Trojan Horses and revolving doors: Assessing the autonomy of national officials in the European Commission

  European Journal of Political Research, 54(2) , s. 249-270. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-6765.12080 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  National officials working in international bureaucracies regularly invoke the fear that member states strategically use such officials for influencing decision making and agenda-setting to their advantage. This article theoretically analyses conditions under which the autonomy of national civil servants in international bureaucracies might become compromised. The ensuing predictions are then tested using a unique survey among seconded national experts (SNEs) in the European Commission (N ≈ 400). Finally, evaluating the characteristics linked to reduced autonomy among SNEs in the Commission, the article illustrates that these officials are, in practice, likely to be relatively independent from member state influence.

• Flores, Alfonso Irarrazabal; Moxnes, Andreas & Opromolla, Luca David (2015)
  The Tip of the Iceberg: A Quantitative Framework for Estimating Trade Costs

  Review of Economics and Statistics, 97(4) , s. 777-792. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1162/REST_a_00517

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  Casual empiricism suggests that additive trade costs, such as quotas, per-unit tariffs, and, in part, transportation costs, are prevalent. In spite of this, we have no broad and systematic evidence of the magnitude of these costs. We develop a new empirical framework for estimating additive trade costs from standard firmlevel trade data. Our results suggest that additive barriers are on average 14 percent, expressed relative to the median price. The point estimates are strongly correlated with common proxies for trade costs. Using our micro estimates, we show that a reduction in additive trade costs produces much higher welfare gains and growth in trade flows than a similar reduction in multiplicative trade costs.

• Osmundsen, Petter; Emhjellen, Magne, Johnsen, Thore, Kemp, Alexander & Riis, Christian (2015)
  Petroleum Taxation Contingent on Counter-factual Investment Behaviour

  Energy Journal, 36(adelman S.I.) Doi: https://doi.org/10.5547/01956574.36.SI1.posm

• Moen, Espen Rasmus; Nenov, Plamen & Sniekers, Florian (2015)
  Buying first or selling first in housing markets

  [Professional Article]. http://www.voxeu.org/,

• Trondal, Jarle; Murdoch, Zuzana & Geys, Benny (2015)
  The Autonomy of National Officials in the European Commission

  Politics and Policy journal blog,

• Moen, Espen Rasmus; Nenov, Plamen & Sniekers, Florian (2015)
  Eerst kopen of eerst verkopen op de woningmarkt

  [Professional Article]. Economisch Statistische Berichten, 100(4706) , s. 166-169.

• Heggedal, Tom-Reiel (2014)
  Knowledge Spillovers and R&D Subsidies to New, Emerging Technologies

  Economics of Innovation and New Technology, 24, s. 710-733. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/10438599.2014.983691

• Eriksen, Eivind (2014)
  Computing Noncommutative Deformations

  Algebra, Geometry and Mathematical Physics, , s. 285-291. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-55361-5_17

• Sveen, Tommy (2014)
  Capital accumulation,sectoral heterogeneity and the Taylor principle

  Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 44, s. 20-28. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2014.04.007

• Foldnes, Njål & Grønneberg, Steffen (2014)
  How general is the Vale-Maurelli simulation approach?

  Psychometrika, 80(4) , s. 1066-1083. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11336-014-9414-0

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  The Vale-Maurelli (VM) approach to generating non-normal mul- tivariate data involves the use of Fleishman polynomials applied to an underly- ing Gaussian random vector. This method has been extensively used in Monte Carlo studies during the last three decades to investigate the nite-sample per- formance of estimators under non-Gaussian conditions. The validity of con- clusions drawn from these studies clearly depends on the range of distributions obtainable with the VM method. We deduce the distribution and the copula for a vector generated by a generalized VM transformation, and show that it is fundamentally linked to the underlying Gaussian distribution and copula. In the process we derive the distribution of the Fleishman polynomial in full generality. While data generated with the VM approach appears to be highly non-normal, its truly multivariate properties are close to the Gaussian case. A Monte Carlo study illustrates that generating data with a di erent copula than that implied by the VM approach severely weakens the performance of normal-theory based ML estimates.The Vale-Maurelli (VM) approach to generating non-normal mul- tivariate data involves the use of Fleishman polynomials applied to an underly- ing Gaussian random vector. This method has been extensively used in Monte Carlo studies during the last three decades to investigate the nite-sample per- formance of estimators under non-Gaussian conditions. The validity of con- clusions drawn from these studies clearly depends on the range of distributions obtainable with the VM method. We deduce the distribution and the copula for a vector generated by a generalized VM transformation, and show that it is fundamentally linked to the underlying Gaussian distribution and copula. In the process we derive the distribution of the Fleishman polynomial in full generality. While data generated with the VM approach appears to be highly non-normal, its truly multivariate properties are close to the Gaussian case. A Monte Carlo study illustrates that generating data with a di erent copula than that implied by the VM approach severely weakens the performance of normal-theory based ML estimates.

• Sørensen, Rune Jørgen (2014)
  Political competition, party polarization, and government performance

  Public Choice, 161(3-4) , s. 427-450. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11127-014-0168-0 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Lack of party competition may impair government efficiency. If the voters are ideologically predisposed to cast their vote in favor of one political party, they may reelect an underperforming incumbent. Party polarization may augment this effect since the median voter faces a higher cost of selecting a better, but ideologically distant incumbent. Alternatively, if the electorate is evenly divided between parties, polarization may induce parties to apply greater effort to improve their election prospects. The current paper analyzes efficiency in Norwegian local government. Efficiency has been measured by means of panel data on government service output over a ten-year period. Electoral dominance has been measured as number of elections where one party bloc receives at least 60 percent of the votes, measured over six consecutive elections. Party polarization is defined as the ideological distance between the two party blocs, and it is measured on basis of survey data on the ideological preferences of elected politicians. Lack of party competition reduces cost efficiency, the effect being stronger in governments where party polarization is large. These agency losses are greater in high-revenue municipalities.

• Hansen, Robert & Synnestvedt, Terje (2014)
  Anvendt mikroøkonomi

  [Textbook]. Handelshøyskolen BI

• Geys, Benny & Mause, Karsten (2014)
  Politicians

  Encyclopedia of Law and Economics, , s. 1-4. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4614-7883-6_370-1

• Andersen, Jørgen Juel & Greaker, Mads (2014)
  The Fiscal Incentive of GHG Cap and Trade: Permits May Be Too Cheap and Developed Countries May Abate Too Little

  [Report Research]. Handelshøyskolen BI

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  The theoretical justification for a greenhouse gas (GHG) cap and trade system is that participants will trade emission permits until their marginal cost of abatement equals the equilibrium price of emission permits. However, for fiscally constrained governments this logic does not apply, as they have a fiscal incentive to let welfare concerns, rather than industrial cost efficiency, guide their abatement policy. Then, global cost efficiency will fail even if just a (small) subset of governments are fiscally constrained. Finally, we argue that any institutional change which breaks the connection between a government's abatement policy and its budget will increase welfare.

• Heggedal, Tom-Reiel; Moen, Espen R & Riis, Christian (2014)
  Samfunnsøkonomiske virkninger av fergefri E-39 Stavanger-Bergen

  [Report Research]. Handelshøyskolen BI

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  Rapporten drøfter og beregner de samfunnsøkonomiske virkningene av en fergefri veiforbindelse E-39 fra Stavanger til Bergen. Det er to strekninger med to nye forbindelsespunkter som blir gjenstand for analyse. Den første strekningen er Stavanger- Haugesund, der nåværende ferge over Boknafjorden erstattes av tunnelforbindelse. Den andre strekningen er Stord-Bergen der fergen over Bjørnefjorden erstattes med broforbindelse. De nye forbindelsene evalueres hver for seg i et konsistent kost-nytte rammeverk. I analysen inkluderer vi både de direkte nytte- og kostnadseffektene, som tidsbesparelser og investeringskostnader, samtidig som vi inkluderer avledete virkninger forbundet med at økt integrasjon tenderer til å øke produktiviteten i markedene. Det viktige nye bidraget i vår analyse er analysen av agglomerasjonsgevinstene forbundet med økt integrasjon av markeder. Når det gjelder de direkte nytte- og kostnadsvirkningene benytter vi etablert metodikk, slik de er beskrevet i NOU 2012:16 Samfunnsøkonomiske analyser. For agglomerasjonseffektene baserer vi oss på en etter hvert rik litteratur2. Denne drøfter teoretisk de ulike mekanismene som genererer produktivitetsgevinster av integrasjon, og empirisk anslår størrelsesorden på effektene. Vi bidrar ikke med en selvstendig empirisk analyse, men benytter estimater som er dokumentert i kvalifiserte og kjente arbeider. Disse integreres i et modellverktøy som korrigerer for at veiinvesteringer reduserer den effektive avstanden mellom befolkningskonsentrasjoner, uten at det medfører full integrasjon. Vi gjennomfører en hovedanalyse som suppleres med en alternativ beregning. I hovedanalysen legger vi til grunn anslag for trafikkveksten utført i analyser av Transportøkonomisk institutt. I den alternative beregningen benyttes noen alternative anslag gitt fra Statens vegvesen.

• Geys, Benny (2014)
  Better Not Look Too Nice? Employees’ Preferences Towards (Un)Likeable Managers

  Leadership Quarterly, 25(5) , s. 875-884. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.leaqua.2014.02.001 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  Recent research shows that, all else equal, most people prefer likeable colleagues. In this article, two experiments are employed to analyze preferences with respect to (un)likeable ssuperiors. We thereby focus on perceptions of likeability based on appearance rather than as a behavioral characteristic, which allows us to concentrate on the impact of quick, unconscious evaluations in zero-acquaintance situations. The results indicate that, all else equal, managers of higher perceived likeability are less preferred than managers of lower perceived likeability. Such likeability-aversion emerges among male and female respondents, affects male and female managers, and holds both for preferences expressed from the perspective of employees (Experiment 1) or a HR department (Experiment 2).

• Heggedal, Tom-Reiel; Moen, Espen R & Edgar, Preugschat (2014)
  Productivity spillovers through labor mobility

  [Report Research]. CEPR

• Bjørnland, Hilde C & Halvorsen, Jørn Inge (2014)
  How does monetary policy respond to exchange rate movements? New international evidence

  Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 76(2) , s. 208-232. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12014

• Heggedal, Tom-Reiel & Helland, Leif (2014)
  Platform selection in the lab

  Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 99(March) , s. 168-177. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2013.12.004

  Vis sammendrag

  Emerging literature explores experimental platform selection games. These games con- verge rapidly on the superior platform under a wide range of conditions. We replicate the remarkable results of Hossain and Morgan (2009) in which such a game tips almost perfectly to the superior platform. Next, we show that platform coordination fails when seemingly innocent increases in out-of-equilibrium payo¤s are introduced. The in ated payo¤s keep the best reply structure unchanged and do not in uence players security levels. Our de- sign allows control for the explanatory force of risk dominance. We nd that equilibrium selection theory is unable to account for coordination failure while observed behavior is con- sistent with non-rational learning. Furthermore, and contrary to the literature, we nd that e¢ ciency su¤ers when an inferior platform is granted initial monopoly.

• Harvey, Andrew C. & Sucarrat, Genaro (2014)
  EGARCH models with fat tails, skewness and leverage

  Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, 76, s. 320-328. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csda.2013.09.022

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  An EGARCH model in which the conditional distribution is heavy- tailed and skewed is proposed. The properties of the model, including unconditional moments, autocorrelations and the asymptotic distribu- tion of the maximum likelihood estimator, are obtained. Evidence for skewness in conditional t-distribution is found for a range of returns series and the model is shown to give a better t than the correspond- ing skewed-t GARCH model.

• Andersen, Jørgen Juel; Fiva, Jon H. & Natvik, Gisle J. (2014)
  Voting when the stakes are high

  Journal of Public Economics, 110, s. 157-166. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2013.10.003

  Vis sammendrag

  Most theories of voter behavior predict that electoral participation will be higher in elections where more is at stake. We test this prediction by studying how participation is affected by exogenous variation in local governments' financial flexibility to provide pork for their voters.Utilizing simultaneous elections for different offices, we identify a positive effect of election stakes on participation: Higher stakes at the local level increase participation at the local relative to the regional election. Survey evidence indicates that the underlying mechanism relates to citizens' acquisition of information.

• Fiva, Jon H.; Hægeland, Torbjørn, Rønning, Marte & Syse, Astri (2014)
  Access to Treatment and Educational Inequalities in Cancer Survival

  Journal of Health Economics, 36(July) , s. 98-111. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2014.04.001

  Vis sammendrag

  The public health care systems in the Nordic countries provide high quality care almost free of charge to all citizens. However, social inequalities in health persist. Previous research has, for example, documented substantial educational inequalities in cancer survival. We investigate to what extent this may be driven by differential access to and utilization of high quality treatment options. Quasi-experimental evidence based on the establishment of regional cancer wards indicates that i) highly educated individuals utilized centralized specialized treatment to a greater extent than less educated patients and ii) the use of such treatment improved these patients' survival.

• Aastveit, Knut Are; Gerdrup, Karsten R., Jore, Anne Sofie & Thorsrud, Leif Anders (2014)
  Nowcasting GDP in real time: a density combination approach

  Journal of business & economic statistics, 32(1) , s. 48-68. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.2013.844155

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  In this paper, we use U.S. real-time data to produce combined density nowcasts of quarterly GDP growth, using a system of three commonly used model classes. We update the density nowcast for every new data release throughout the quarter, and highlight the importance of new information for nowcasting. Our results show that the logarithmic score of the predictive densities for U.S. GDP growth increase almost monotonically, as new information arrives during the quarter. While the ranking of the model classes changes during the quarter, the combined density nowcasts always perform well relative to the model classes in terms of both logarithmic scores and calibration tests. The density combination approach is superior to a simple model selection strategy and also performs better in terms of point forecast evaluation than standard point forecast combinations.

• Maurseth, Per Botolf & Svensson, Roger (2014)
  Micro evidence on international patenting

  Economics of Innovation and New Technology, 23(4) , s. 398-422. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/10438599.2013.871166

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  Globalization, high growth rates in high-tech industries, growing emerging markets and harmonization of patent institutions across countries have stimulated patenting in foreign markets. We use a simple model of international patenting, where the decision to patent in a foreign country depends on country characteristics and the quality of the patented invention. With access to a detailed database on individual patents owned by small Swedish firms and inventors, we are able to estimate some of these relationships and test their validity. Our results indicate that the propensity to apply for international patent protection increases with indicators of the quality of the invention, technological rivalry and market size in the host market.

• Cools, Sara & Strøm, Marte (2014)
  Parenthood wage penalties in a double income society

  Review of Economics of the Household, 14, s. 391-416. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11150-014-9244-y

  Vis sammendrag

  We estimate how parenthood affects hourly wages using panel data for Norwegian employees in the years 1997–2007. Though smaller than for most other OECD countries, we find substantial wage penalties to motherhood, ranging from a 1.2 % wage reduction for women with lower secondary education to 4.9 % for women with more than four years of higher education. Human capital measures such as work experience and paid parental leave do not explain the wage penalties, indicating that in the Norwegian institutional context, mothers are protected from adverse wage effects due to career breaks. We do however find large heterogeneity in the effects, with the largest penalties for mothers working full time and in the private sector. Contrary to most studies using US data and to previous research from Norway, we find a small wage penalty also to fatherhood. Also for men, the penalty is greater for those who work full time and in the private sector. A substantial share of the fatherhood wage penalty is explained by paternity leave.

• Andersen, Jørgen Juel & Ross, Michael L. (2014)
  The Big Oil Change: A Closer Look at the Haber-Menaldo Analysis

  Comparative Political Studies, 47(7) , s. 993-1021. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414013488557

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  The claim that oil wealth tends to block democratic transitions has recently been challenged by Haber and Menaldo, who use historical data going back to 1800 and conclude there is no “resource curse.” We revisit their data and models, and show they might be correct for the period before the 1970s, but since about 1980, there has been a pronounced resource curse. We argue that oil wealth only became a hindrance to democratic transitions after the transformative events of the 1970s, which enabled developing country governments to capture the oil rents that were previously siphoned off by foreign-owned firms. We also explain why the Haber–Menaldo study failed to identify this: partly because the authors draw invalid inferences from their data and partly because they assume that the relationship between oil wealth and democracy has not changed for the past 200 years.

• Ostergaard, Charlotte; Norli, Øyvind & Schindele, Ibolya (2014)
  Liquidity and Shareholder Activism

  [Professional Article]. Harvard Law School Forum on Corporate Governance and Financial Regulation,

• Røed-Larsen, Erling (2014)
  The Engel Curve of Owner-Occupied Housing Consumption

  Journal of Applied Economics, 17(2) , s. 325-352. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/S1514-0326(14)60015-5

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  Housing is a major component of aggregate demand, and understanding how the demand for housing co-varies with income is useful for analysis and policy. While estimating housing consumption for tenants amounts to observing rents, estimating housing consumption for owner-occupiers is challenging because it is not directly observable and interest payments vary with re-paid principals. In order to examine the housing consumption for owner-occupiers, this article combines micro data sets on income and imputed rents for owner-occupiers based on home attributes from a consumer expenditure survey and monthly rents in a rental survey. This allows estimation of an Engel curve of owner-occupied consumption, both parametrically and non-parametrically. Regression results demonstrate that the income share of owner-occupied housing consumption decreases with income, while the Engel elasticity computed at the mean is 0.32 and increasing in income.

• Martinsen, Kjetil; Ravazzolo, Francesco & Wulfsberg, Fredrik (2014)
  Forecasting macroeconomic variables using disaggregate survey data

  International Journal of Forecasting, 30(1) , s. 65-77. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2013.02.003

• Ravazzolo, Francesco & Vahey, Shaun P (2014)
  Forecast densities for economic aggregates from disaggregate ensembles

  Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 18(4) , s. 367-381. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1515/snde-2012-0088

• Exbrayat, Nelly & Geys, Benny (2014)
  Trade integration and corporate income tax differentials: theory and evidence from OECD countries

  International Tax and Public Finance, 21(2) , s. 298-323. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10797-013-9270-3

• Söderström, Torsten; Kreiberg, David & Mossberg, Magnus (2014)
  Extended accuracy analysis of a covariance matching approach for identifying errors-in-variables systems

  Automatica, 50(10) , s. 2597-2605. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.automatica.2014.08.020

• Geys, Benny & Vermeir, Jan (2014)
  Party Cues in Elections under Multi-Level Governance: Theory and Evidence from US States

  Journal of the European Economic Association, 12(4) , s. 1029-1058. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/jeea.12081 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  In federal countries, voters’ ability to evaluate the performance of their leaders might be reduced when different levels of government shape policy outcomes. This can blur political accountability. In this article, we analyze how party cues (i.e., politicians’ party membership acting as a cue towards their characteristics) affect voters’ incomplete information in a federal setting.We theoretically show that party cues allow indirect inference regarding politicians using observed policy outcomes, and can alleviate the accountability problem. Empirical evidence from US presidential election results across all 50 US states over the period 1972–2008 supports this proposition. However, party cues also have a downside in that they may reduce politicians’ effort, particularly when politicians at different levels of government are from different parties.

• Anundsen, Andre Kallåk & Larsen, Erling Røed (2014)
  Strategic sequencing behavior among owner-occupiers: The role played by sell-first movers in a housing recovery

  Journal of European Real Estate Research, 7(3) , s. 295-306. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1108/JERER-01-2014-0004

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  Purpose – This article aims to study the dual search problem using data on the Norwegian housing market during the financial crisis of 2008 and begin the detailed mapping of the elements in the transmission mechanism from policy to the housing market. Moving owner occupiers face a simultaneous dual search and matching problem, as they must locate both a buyer and a seller with whom to transact. Individual agents solve this optimization under uncertainty by planning to make their bids for a new house partially conditional upon the sale of the old house. Design/methodology/approach – Norway may function as a window into a policy quasi-laboratory since the housing market was turned around in December 2008 in the midst of a worldwide financial crisis and after a year and a half of price decreases. The article proposes that one key dimension in the recovery was the reduced frequency of households with conditional demand involving sell-first strategies and acquires data to shed light on this proposition. Findings – Empirical evidence on the sell-first–buy-first differential, for-sale stock and stock-to-volume supports this proposition, and results indicate that the housing market is affected by sell-first strategies. The article discusses policy alternatives. Originality/value – The article introduces a miniature model of housing trade sequences and a simple apparatus with which to analyze the consequences of sell-first behavior. It also acquires and combines new data on sell-first–buy-first differential, for-sale stock and stock-to-volume ratio. The article analyzes the co-movement between these time series and the house price index.

• Ashworth, John; Geys, Benny, Heyndels, Bruno & Wille, Fanny (2014)
  Competition in the political arena and local government performance

  Applied Economics, 46(19) , s. 2264-2276. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2014.899679

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  Competition reduces rent extraction in private-sector firms. In this article, we empirically assess whether it similarly disciplines politicians by evaluating local-level governments’ performance in Flanders. The results indicate that electoral competition – measured via the number of parties competing in elections – significantly positively affects the productive efficiency of municipal policy. Intertemporal competition – measured as the volatility of election outcomes over time – has a similar, but weaker, positive effect. These beneficial effects are mitigated by the fact that competition may lead to more fragmented governments, which is shown to work against their productive efficiency. Overall, though, the beneficial effects outweigh the unfavourable ones in our sample.

• Geys, Benny & Mause, Karsten (2014)
  Are Female Legislators Different? Exploring Sex Differences in German MPs’ Outside Interests

  Parliamentary Affairs, 67(4) , s. 841-865. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1093/pa/gss090 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  This article examines whether sex matters with respect to a type of legislator behaviour that has thus far been neglected in the literature analysing the distinctive nature of female and male legislators: parliamentarians' outside interests. Using data for 614 German Members of Parliament (MPs), our analysis confirms that female MPs on average hold fewer outside jobs than men—especially in private-sector functions. We also find that individual characteristics such as political experience, having (young) children and age reflect sources of this divergence. These findings and their implications are discussed in the light of extensive research on sex and gender effects in other political and labour market settings.

• Foldnes, Njål & Hagtvet, Knut Arne (2014)
  The Choice of Product Indicators in Latent Variable Interaction Models: Post Hoc Analyses

  Psychological methods, 19(3) , s. 444-457. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1037/a0035728

  Vis sammendrag

  The unconstrained product indicator (PI) approach is a simple and popular approach for modeling nonlinear effects among latent variables. This approach leaves the practitioner to choose the PIs to be included in the model, introducing arbitrariness into the modeling. In contrast to previous Monte Carlo studies, we evaluated the PI approach by three post-hoc analyses applied to a real-world case adopted from a research effort in social psychology. The measurement design applied three and four indicators for the two latent first-order variables, leaving the researcher with a choice among more than 4000 possible PI configurations. Sixty so-called matched-pair configurations that have been recommended in previous literature are of special interest. In the first post-hoc analysis we estimated the interaction effect for all PI configurations, keeping the real-world sample fixed. The estimated interaction effect was substantially affected by the choice of PIs, also across matched-pair configurations. Subsequently, a post-hoc Monte Carlo study was conducted, with varying sample sizes and data distributions. Convergence, bias, type I error and power of the interaction test were investigated for each matched-pair configuration and the all-pairs configuration. Variation in estimates across matched-pair configurations for a typical sample was substantial. The choice of specific configuration significantly affected convergence and the interaction test’s outcome. The all-pairs configuration performed overall better than the matched-pair configurations. A further advantage of the all-pairs over the matched-pairs approach is its unambiguity. The final study evaluates the all-pairs configuration for small sample sizes, and compares it to the non-PI approach of LMS.

• Dalen, Dag Morten; Locatelli, Marilena, Sorisio, Enrico & Strøm, Steinar (2014)
  Does the Identity of the Third-Party Payer Matter for Prescribing Doctors?

  Applied Economics and Finance, 1(1) Doi: https://doi.org/10.11114/aef.v1i1.324

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  TNF-alpha inhibitors represent one of the most important areas of biopharmaceuticals by sales, with threeblockbusters accounting for 8 per cent of total pharmaceutical sale in Norway. Novelty of the paper is to examine, with the use of a unique natural policy experiment in Norway, to what extent the price responsiveness of prescription choices is affected when the identity of the third-party payer changes. The three dominating drugs in this market, Enbrel, Remicade, and Humira, are substitutes, but have had different and varying funding schemes -hospitals and the national insurance plan. A stochastic structural model for the three drugs, covering demand and price setting, is estimated in a joint maximum likelihood approach. We find that doctors are more responsive when the costs are covered by the hospitals compared to when costs are covered by national insurance

• Michelsen, Claus; Geys, Benny & Boenisch, Peter (2014)
  (De)Centralization and voter turnout: Theory and evidence from German municipalities

  Public Choice, 159(3-4) , s. 469-483. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11127-013-0061-2

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  A vast academic literature illustrates that voter turnout is affected by the institutional design of elections (e.g., compulsory voting, electoral system, postal or Sunday voting). In this article, we exploit a simple Downsian theoretical framework to argue that the institutional framework of public good provision – and, in particular, the distribution of political and administrative competences across government levels – likewise affects voters’ turnout decisions by influencing the expected net benefit of voting. Empirically, we exploit the institutional variation across German municipalities to test this proposition, and find supportive evidence.

• Eriksen, Eivind & Fausk, Halvard (2014)
  Mattenøkkelen

  [Textbook]. Gyldendal Akademisk

• Straume, Hans-Martin (2014)
  Currency invoicing in Norwegian salmon export

  Marine Resource Economics, 29(4) , s. 391-409. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1086/678930 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  The purpose of this paper is to examine the choice of currency for Norwegian salmon exporters. The choice of invoicing currency will affect prices in different markets as well as risk, factors that are increasingly important as the supply chain for salmon is becoming more sophisticated and more transactions mechanisms are introduced. The results indicate that destination-specific market characteristics have impacts as to the choice of invoicing strategy. Norwegian salmon exporters primarily invoice in the export market currency (47% of the exported quantity), but also use a vehicle currency and producer pricing (19%) in a significant number of transactions. The euro is the preferred vehicle currency (18%), closely followed by US dollar (USD) (16%). The USD is the dominating invoicing currency for exports beyond Europe.

• Grønneberg, Steffen & Hjort, Nils Lid (2014)
  The Copula Information Criteria

  Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, 41(2) , s. 436-459. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/sjos.12042 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  We derive two types of Akaike information criterion (AIC)-like model-selection formulae for the semiparametric pseudo-maximum likelihood procedure. We first adapt the arguments leading to the original AIC formula, related to empirical estimation of a certain Kullback–Leibler information distance. This gives a significantly different formula compared with the AIC, which we name the copula information criterion. However, we show that such a model-selection procedure cannot exist for copula models with densities that grow very fast near the edge of the unit cube. This problem affects most popular copula models. We then derive what we call the cross-validation copula information criterion, which exists under weak conditions and is a first-order approximation to exact cross validation. This formula is very similar to the standard AIC formula but has slightly different motivation. A brief illustration with real data is given.

• Murdoch, Zuzana & Geys, Benny (2014)
  Institutional dynamics in international organisations: Lessons from the recruitment procedures of the European External Action Service

  Organization Studies, 35(12) , s. 1793-1811. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1177/0170840614544558 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  This article examines how organisational designs develop by proposing a novel theoretical framework that views organisational change as resulting from a dialectic process between interpretive agents. The key claim is that existing formal procedures (such as recruitment processes, our empirical focal point) are subject to involved actors’ interpretive efforts. This results in a bargaining situation based on the interpretations of the principal actors, which may induce a feedback loop whereby the original procedures are amended. The empirical relevance of the theoretical argument is illustrated via a case study of the hiring procedures in the European External Action Service.

• Sommervoll, Dag Einar & Haan, Jan de (2014)
  Homes and Castles: Should We Care about Idiosyncratic Risk?

  Land Economics, 90(4) , s. 700-716.

• Witte, Kristof De; Geys, Benny & Solondz, Catharina (2014)
  Public Expenditures, Educational Outcomes and Grade Inflation: Theory and Evidence from a Policy Intervention in the Netherlands

  Economics of Education Review, 40, s. 152-166. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econedurev.2014.02.003

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  This article argues that resource expansion can fail to improve actual student performance because it might cause educators to soften grading standards (i.e., induce grade inflation). Our theoretical model shows that, depending on schools’ and students’ reactions to resource changes, the overall effect of resources on education outcomes is ambiguous. Schools, however, have an incentive to adjust their grading structure following resource shifts, such that grade inflation is likely to accompany resource-driven policies. Exploiting a quasi-experimental policy intervention in the Netherlands, we find that additional resources may indeed induce grade inflation, particularly when the resource increase is limited.

• Borge, Lars-Erik; Steigum, Erling & Strandenes, Siri Pettersen (2014)
  Artikkel om arbeidsinnvandring vant prisen for 2013.

  [Professional Article]. Samfunnsøkonomen, (1) , s. 55-56.

• Hermansen, Olav; Johansen, Stian Øby, Maurseth, Per Botolf, Medin, Hege, Melchior, Arne, Olsen, Terje G., Sverdrup, Ulf & Theie, Marcus Gjems (2014)
  Transatlantisk frihandel og Norge

  [Report Research]. Norsk Utenrikspolitisk Institutt

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  Forhandlingene om et handels- og investeringspartnerskap (TTIP) mellom EU og USA er svært ambisiøse og har som mål å fjerne tollbarrierer samt en rekke regulatoriske hindringer mellom de to partene. Avtalen er ment å dekke handel i både varer og tjenester samt investeringer. I rapporten analyserer vi konsekvensene av et TTIP for Norge. Vi ser også på konsekvenser av en egen handels- og investeringsavtale mellom Norge og USA.

• Grytten, Jostein Ivar; Skau, Irene & Sørensen, Rune Jørgen (2014)
  Educated mothers, healthy infants. The impact of a school reform on the birth weight of Norwegian infants 1967-2005

  Social Science and Medicine, 105, s. 84-92. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socscimed.2014.01.008

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  Birth weight is an important predictor of health and success in later life. Little is known about the effect of mothers’ education on birth weight. A few causal analyses have been done, but they show conflicting results. We estimated the effect of mothers’ education on birth weight by using data on a school reform in Norway. During the period 1960-1972, all municipalities in Norway were required to increase the number of compulsory years of schooling from seven to nine years. We used this education reform to create exogenous variation in the education variable. The education data were combined with large sets of data from the Medical Birth Registry and Statistics Norway. Since municipalities implemented the reform at different times, we have cross-sectional as well as time-series variation in the reform instrument. In the analyses, we controlled for municipality fixed effects, municipality-specific time-trends and mothers’ and infants’ year of birth. Using this procedure we found a fairly large effect of mothers’ education on birth weight. Increasing mothers’ education reduces the likelihood of low birth weight, even in a publically financed health care system. In interpreting these results it is important to keep in mind that we have examined only one channel, which is through birth weight, through which education may explain differences in health. There are other potential channels that should be explored by future research. In particular, it would be of interest to examine whether education has causal effects on the broader determinants of health, such as psychopathology, social capital and networks, and family stress and dysfunction.

• Grytten, Jostein Ivar; Monkerud, Lars Christian, Skau, Irene & Sørensen, Rune Jørgen (2014)
  Regionalization and local Hospital closure in Norwegian maternity care - The effect on neonatal and infant mortality

  Health Services Research (HSR), 49(4) , s. 1184-1204. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-6773.12153

• Osmundsen, Petter; Emhjellen, Magne, Johnsen, Thore, Kemp, Alexander & Riis, Christian (2014)
  Petroleum taxation and investment behaviour

  IAEE International Conference, Doi: https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2508477

  Vis sammendrag

  Proceedings, 14th IAEE European Conference 2014, Rome, October 28-31.

• Geys, Benny (2013)
  Election Cycles in MPs' Outside Interests? The UK House of Commons, 2005-2010

  Political Studies, 61(2) , s. 462-472. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9248.2012.00956.x

• Sommervoll, Dag Einar (2013)
  Sweet Self-Deception

  Journal of Economics, 109(1) , s. 73-88. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00712-012-0308-2

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  People have a tendency to procrastinate when faced with aversive tasks - but they also procrastinate in relation to beneficial matters whose rewards are instantaneous. If agents value present anticipations of future consumption, revision of consumption plans may be viewed as a benign form of self-deception. We consider a minimal generalization of the Samuelson discounted utility model to allow for utility linked to next period consumption. Agents are assumed to vary with respect to their sophistication. In this context, commitment and self-control are obstacles to the pursuit of increased utility. We also examine different environments that are likely to facilitate repeated revisions.

• Andersen, Jørgen Juel (2013)
  The Dutch disease and intergenerational welfare

  Applied Economics, 45(4) , s. 465-476. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2011.605762

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  Governments in resource abundant economies face a tradeo¤ between transferring wealth to present generations and saving for future generations. Employing an overlapping generations framework with endogenous growth, this paper analyzes the intergenerational welfare e¤ects of: (1) a wealth transfer policy where the entire wealth is transferred to the generations alive at present; (2) an income transfer policy where the wealth is saved and the permanent income of the wealth is transferred to all present and future generations, forever. Not surprisingly, present generations are unambiguously better o¤ with the wealth transfer policy. Less trivially, however, the wealth transfer policy can be associated with higher wel-fare also for future generations. The intuition for this result is that while a wealth transfer depresses growth only in the periods subsequent to the transfer, income transfers constitute a permanent drag on growth. Perhaps counter to the naïve intuition, the policy of saving the wealth and distributing the permanent income to all present and future generations is less bene cial for the future generations if the real return to saving is high

• Andersen, Jørgen Juel & Aslaksen, Silje (2013)
  Oil and political survival

  Journal of Development Economics, 100(1) , s. 89-106. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2012.08.008

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  Political economy theories on the “natural resource curse” predict that natural resource wealth is a determining factor for the length of time political leaderships remain in office. Whether resource wealth leads to longer or shorter durations in political office depends on the political incentives created by the natural resources, which in turn depend on the types of institutions and natural resource. Exploiting a sample of more than 600 political leadership durations in up to 152 countries, we find that both institutions and resource types matter for the effect that natural resource wealth has on political survival: (i) wealth derived from natural resources affects political survival in intermediate and autocratic, but not in democratic, polities; and (ii) while oil and non-lootable diamonds are associated with positive effects on the duration in political office, minerals are associated with negative duration effects.

• Sucarrat, Genaro (2013)
  betategarch: Simulation, Estimation and Forecasting of First-Order Beta-Skew-t-EGARCH models

  The R Journal, 5(2) , s. 138-148. Doi: https://doi.org/10.32614/rj-2013-034

• Hansen, Robert (2013)
  Mikroøkonomi - studieguide

  [Textbook]. Handelshøyskolen BI

• Røed-Larsen, Erling (2013)
  Hvorfor er det så dyrt i Norge?

  [Popular Science Article]. Formue, (1) , s. 4-11.

• Røed-Larsen, Erling (2013)
  Norsk økonomi på kort og lang sikt

  [Popular Science Article]. Formue, (2) , s. 4-11.

• Steigum, Erling (2013)
  Sovereign wealth funds for macroeconomic purposes

  [Report Research]. Finanspolitiska rådet

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  Sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) have become more numerous after the turn of the century, but the largest ones have been set up by non-democratic countries in the Middle East and Asia. Norway´s large SWF is an exception. In democratic societies, SWFs have been established in Australia, New Zealand and Ireland to pre-fund pensions in response to expected population ageing. The management of Norway’s Fund has been index-based, with only a very small role played by active management. In most other SWFs around the world, active management is much more important, and the cost of management is much higher than in Norway. The academic literature suggests that although active management could be worthwhile, many empirical studies do not support the belief that external active management generates excess after-fee returns. An empirical study of active management in Norges Bank finds that 70 percent of the (small) active management results from equity can be explained by other systematic risk factors than market risk. There is no strong consensus about how a global fund should diversify its assets among asset classes and currencies. We argue that SWFs could have positive macroeconomic effects in democratic welfare states if the government runs pension programs financed on a pay-as-you-go basis, and future population ageing is significant. Still, a SWF is hardly politically feasible if there is no broad agreement in the electorate and among political parties that fiscal surpluses and a SWF is worthwhile.

• Bjørnland, Hilde C & Thorsrud, Leif Anders (2013)
  Boom or gloom? Examining the Dutch disease in a two-speed economy

  [Report Research]. Handelshøyskolen BI

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  Traditional studies of the Dutch disease do not typically account for productiv- ity spillovers between the booming energy sector and non-oil sectors. This study identifies and quantifies these spillovers using a Bayesian Dynamic Factor Model (BDFM). The model allows for resource movements and spending effects through a large panel of variables at the sectoral level, while also identifying disturbances to the real oil price, global demand and non-oil activity. Using Norway as a repre- sentative case study, we find that a booming energy sector has substantial spillover effects on the non-oil sectors. Furthermore, windfall gains due to changes in the real oil price also stimulates the economy, but primarily if the oil price increase is caused by global demand. Oil price increases due to, say, supply disruptions, while stimulating activity in the technologically intense service sectors and boosting gov- ernment spending, have small spillover effects on the rest of the economy, primarily because of reduced cost competitiveness. Yet, there is no evidence of Dutch disease. Instead, we find evidence of a two-speed economy, with non-tradables growing at a much faster pace than tradables. Our results suggest that traditional Dutch dis- ease models with a fixed capital stock and exogenous labor supply do not provide a convincing explanation for how petroleum wealth affects a resource rich economy when there are productivity spillovers between sectors.

• Natvik, Gisle James (2013)
  The Political Economy of Fiscal Deficits and Government Production

  European Economic Review, 58, s. 81-94. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2012.12.001

• Natvik, Gisle James; Furlanetto, Francesco & Seneca, Martin (2013)
  Investment shocks and macroeconomic co-movement

  Journal of macroeconomics, 37, s. 208-216. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2013.03.005

• Sørensen, Rune Jørgen (2013)
  En kapitalintensiv, desentralisert og innovativ forvaltning

  [Popular Science Article]. Stat & Styring, , s. 26-29.

• Røed-Larsen, Erling (2013)
  Is the Engel curve approach viable in the estimation of alternative PPPs?

  Empirical Economics, 47(3) , s. 881-904. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-013-0766-6

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  Conventional estimates of purchasing power parities (PPP) rely on cross-country price data. Using Engel curves, Almås (2012) was able to show, however, that PPPs contain substantial bias. Since constructing conventional estimates is expensive and time-consuming, Almås’ idea of employing Engel curves is welcome. This article examines the viability of the Engel curve approach to PPP and its sensitivity to differences in relative prices and preferences by estimating Engel curves not only between countries but also for regions within a given country. My empirical evidence from the United States and Norway suggests that the differences can be problematic, but not sufficiently to discredit the new methodology. A pragmatic approach to PPP estimation between countries that are different is to compute a PPP band, rather than a point estimate. I present a practical example of this using expenditure data from 2001, which yields a band for NOK and U.S. dollar.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2013)
  Sikker som banken

  [Popular Science Article]. Samtiden, (3) , s. 78-89.

• Sveen, Tommy & Boye, Katrine Godding (2013)
  Norges Bank Watch 2013 An Independent Evaluetaion of Montetary Policy in Norway

  [Report Research]. BI Norwegian Business School

• Bjørnland, Hilde C & Thorsrud, Leif Anders (2013)
  Ringvirkninger - Norsk økonomi og olje

  [Report Research]. CME Working Paper

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  Norsk økonomi går godt. En viktig grunn til dette er petroleumsnæringens bidrag til økt produktivitet i resten av økonomien. Men flere varsellamper blinker. Den senere tid har produktivitetsveksten vært avtagende. Høyere oljepriser har ført til økte lønnskostnader, som igjen har svekket konkurranseevnen. Det er ikke sikkert at vi kan regne med like gunstig utvikling det neste tiåret. Trolig er det først da vi virkelig får en test på om vi er immune mot Hollandsk syke.

• Knutsen, Magnus Våge (2013)
  Langsiktig utvikling i offentlige finanser

  Samfunnsøkonomen,

• Bjørnland, Hilde C; Alstadheim, Ragna & Maih, Junior (2013)
  Do central banks respond to exchange rate movements? A Markov-switching structural investigation

  [Report Research]. Handelshøyskolen BI

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  Do central banks respond to exchange rate movements? According to Lubik and Schorfheide (2007) who estimate structural general equilibrium models with monetary policy rules, the answer is "Yes, some do". However, their analysis is based on a sample with multiple regime changes, which may bias the results. We revisit their original question using a Markov switching set up which explicitly allows for parameter changes. Fitting the data from four small open economies to the model, we find that the size of policy responses, and the volatility of structural shocks, have not stayed constant during the sample period (1982-2011). In particular, central banks in Sweden and the UK switched from a high response to the exchange rate in the 1980s and early 1990s, to a low response some time after in ation targeting was implemented. Canada also observed a regime change, but the decline in the exchange rate response was small relative to the increase in the response to in ation and output. Norway, on the other hand, did not observe a shift in the policy response over time, as the central bank has stayed in a regime of high exchange rate response prior and post implementing in ation targeting.

• Monkerud, Lars Christian & Ytterhus, Bjarne E. (2013)
  Adoption of environmental management systems and standards in Norwegian education and nursing

  Baltic Journal of Management, 8(2) , s. 124-141. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1108/17465261311309984

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  Purpose – The aim of this paper is to explore the driving forces and cost/benefit effects of introducing environmental management systems (EMS) and standards in education and nursing in five of the largest Norwegian cities. The relevant standard is the Eco-Lighthouse program which offers a Norwegian environmental certificate. Design/methodology/approach – Multivariate analyses of data on motivating factors and perceived costs/benefits from reported EMS adoption from a survey going to executives in 391 schools and 87 nursing homes. Findings – The study confirms that EMS adoption is driven by resources and capabilities, rather than simply institutional pressure, and that managers in nursing and education perceive reduced costs and other benefits from EMS adoption. The value added of the Eco-Lighthouse certification is ambiguous. Research limitations/implications – Since the study builds on survey data on perceived effects from EMS adoption, a potential limitation is non-representativeness, although sampled and un-sampled institutions are similar in relevant respects. Moreover, since data are cross-sectional, dynamic effects from EMS adoption is difficult to assess. Originality/value – The paper corroborates results from previous studies. A novelty in the study is its attempt to control for the effect of rationalization and/or social desirability bias in effects reporting. The likely impact of rationalization/social desirability bias is in general positive but not significant in analyses of cost reductions, although both positive and significant in analyses of other benefit effects.

• Fiva, Jon H.; Folke, Olle & Sørensen, Rune Jørgen (2013)
  The Power of Parties

  [Report Research]. CESifo Working Paper Series

• Hansen, Robert (2013)
  Mikroøkonomi - en kort innføring

  [Textbook]. Gyldendal Akademisk

• Andersen, Jørgen Juel; Johannesen, Niels, Lassen, David Dreyer & Paltseva, Elena (2013)
  Petro rents, political institutions, and hidden wealth : evidence from bank deposits in tax havens

  [Report Research]. Handelshøyskolen BI

  Vis sammendrag

  Do political institutions limit rent-seeking by politicians? To address this question, we study the transformation of petroleum rents into hidden wealth using unique data on bank deposits in tax havens. We find that petroleum rents are associated with increases in hidden wealth, but only when political institutions are very weak. We also discern an interesting interaction with political risk: events such as elections and domestic conflict are preceded by increases in hidden wealth when political institutions are weak, which is consistent with a view of autocratic rulers as forward-looking rent-seekers whose behavior is constrained by political checks and balances.

• Sørensen, Rune Jørgen (2013)
  Does aging affect preferences for welfare spending? A study of peoples' spending preferences in 22 countries, 1985-2006

  European Journal of Political Economy, 29, s. 259-271. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2012.09.004

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  A recurrent assertion is that aging will intensify age-related conflict over public budget allocation. If people are led by their self-interest, the young will prioritize public education services, while the elderly will demand better pensions and health-care services. Addressing this issue requires longitudinal survey data and estimation of age (life-cycle), period and cohort effects. Except for a few of studies based on US data, such analyses are non-existent. We use repeated cross-section survey-data for 22 countries. Respondents are classified into ten-year age-groups and birth decades, and we estimate a regression model explaining respondents’ public spending preferences. When period and cohort effects are taken into account, elderly people want less education spending, and more health care and pension spending. These life-cycle effects vary considerably between countries, but are generally quite small. Preferences also appear mostly unrelated to left-right party choice.

• Bjørnland, Hilde C; Alstadheim, Ragna & Maih, Junior (2013)
  Do central banks respond to exchange rate movements? A Markov-switching structural investigation

  [Report Research]. Norges Bank Working Paper

• Røed-Larsen, Erling (2013)
  Da verden gikk tom for gull, Dine Penger 6 – 2013, s 96 – 98

  [Popular Science Article]. Dine Penger, 6, s. 96-98.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2013)
  Bank og finans - hva har hendt? - og hva har vi lært?

  [Popular Science Article]. Praktisk Økonomi & Finans, (4) , s. 33-42.

• Helland, Leif & Monkerud, Lars Christian (2013)
  Electoral agency in the lab: Learning to throw out the rascals

  Journal of Theoretical Politics, 25(2) , s. 214-233. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1177/0951629812460120

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  Models of electoral agency address the levels of discipline and selection that voters can acheive in elections. The models are demanding in terms of individual belief-formation and consistency of behavior. We investigate a baseline model of electoral agency in a controlled laboratory environment. This baseline model, although simple, forms the central plank of more complex electoral agency models. Our design seeks to limit the behavioral impact of social preferences. We nd little support for the baseline model in our data. However, simple (nonrational) learning rules explain behavioral patterns well. Simulations indicate that non-rational learning drives behavior most forcefully towards equilibrium in situations that are favorable to Bayesian updating.

• Geys, Benny; Heinemann, Friedrich & Kalb, Alexander (2013)
  Local Government Efficiency in German Municipalities

  Raumforschung und Raumordnung, 71(4) , s. 283-293. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13147-012-0191-x

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  This article evaluates German local governments’ cost efficiency using a sample of 1021 municipalities in the state of Baden-Württemberg for the year 2001. We thereby concentrate on overall or ‘global’ efficiency scores – rather than estimate efficiency for one particular service – and explicitly account for exogenous or non-discretionary influences. The latter not only corrects for influences possibly beyond the control of local policy-makers, but also allows some indication with respect to the determinants of such ‘global’ efficiency. Our results indicate that there is a substantial divergence in efficiency across municipalities despite a homogeneous institutional setting. As especially smaller municipalities appears less efficient, these results support a case for policy programs aimed at boundary reviews or more extensive inter-communal cooperation among small municipalities

• Sveen, Tommy & Weinke, Lutz (2013)
  The Taylor principle in a medium-scale macroeconomic model

  Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 37(12) , s. 3034-3043. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2013.09.003

• Bjørnland, Hilde C & Jacobsen, Dag Henning (2013)
  House Prices and Stock Prices: Different Roles in the US Monetary Transmission Mechanism

  The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 115(4) , s. 1084-1106. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/sjoe.12031

• Geys, Benny & Mause, Karsten (2013)
  Moonlighting Politicians: A Survey and Research Agenda

  The Journal of Legislative Studies, 19(1) , s. 76-97. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/13572334.2013.737158

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  Elected representatives in many countries are legally allowed to carry out (un)paid jobs in addition to their political mandate, often referred to as ‘moonlighting’. Despite the important selection and incentive effects such outside positions might engender, academic studies evaluating the prevalence, desirability and/or consequences of politicians’ moonlighting have remained relatively scarce; often due to severe data restrictions. In recent years, however, more stringent disclosure rules have increased data availability, and large-sample analyses are becoming increasingly feasible. Besides surveying recent empirical contributions to this developing research field, this paper also outlines unresolved issues and thereby develops an agenda for future enquiry.

• Kreiberg, David; Söderström, Torsten & Wallentin, Fan Yang (2013)
  Errors-in-variables identification using covariance matching and structural equation modeling

  IEEE Conference on Decision and Control. Proceedings, Doi: https://doi.org/10.1109/cdc.2013.6760812

• Fiva, Jon H. & Natvik, Gisle J. (2013)
  Do re-election probabilities influence public investment?

  Public Choice, 157(1-2) , s. 305-331. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11127-012-9946-8

  Vis sammendrag

  An insight from dynamic political economy is that elected officials may use state variables to affect the choices of their successors. We exploit the staggered timing of local and national elections in Norway to investigate how politicians' re-election probabilities affect their investments in physical capital. Because popularity is endogenous to politics, we use an instrumental variable approach based on regional movements in ideological sentiment. We find that higher re-election probabilities stimulate investments, particularly in purposes preferred more strongly by the incumbent parties. This aligns with theory where capital and current expenditures are considered complementary inputs to government production.

• Maurseth, Per Botolf & Medin, Hege (2013)
  Market specific fixed and sunk export costs: The impact of learning and spillovers

  [Report Research]. Norsk Utenrikspolitisk Institutt

• Ravazzolo, Francesco & Rothman, Philip (2013)
  Oil and U.S. GDP: A Real-Time Out-of-Sample Examination

  Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 45(2-3) , s. 449-463. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12009

• Geys, Benny & Osterloh, Steffen (2013)
  Borders as boundaries to fiscal policy interactions? An empirical analysis of politicians' opinions on rivals in the competition for firms

  Journal of Regional Science, 53(4) , s. 583-606. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/jors.12029

• Bache, Ida Wolden; Sveen, Tommy & Torstensen, Kjersti Næss (2013)
  Revisiting the importance of non-tradable goods' prices in cyclical real exchange rate fluctuations

  European Economic Review, 57, s. 98-107. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2012.10.007

• Reiter, Michael; Sveen, Tommy & Weinke, Lutz (2013)
  Lumpy investment and the monetary transmission mechanism

  Journal of Monetary Economics, 60(7) , s. 821-834. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2013.08.003

• Steigum, Erling & Thøgersen, Øystein (2013)
  A crisis not wasted – Institutional and structural reforms behind Norway’s strong macroeconomic performance

  [Report Research]. Norges Handelshøyskole

  Vis sammendrag

  This paper draws the line between the Norwegian boom-bust cycle and crises in the late 1980s and early 1990s, the succeeding institutional and structural reforms and the strong macroeconomic performance and stability of the last two decades. The systemic banking crisis and speculative attack on the Norwegian krone in the early 1990s were the last in a series of blows to Norway’s macroeconomic policy regime. In addition to the recession after 1988, the underlying growth potential of the Mainland economy was also weak, despite financial deregulation and the gains in competitiveness. The large oil price fall in the mid-1980s had demonstrated the risk of uncertain oil revenues as an important source of income to the government. The political awareness of an economic crisis paved the way for a series of structural reforms and changes in the macroeconomic policy regime. Some of these reforms were implemented quickly, such as a tax reform, an energy market reform and a new incomes policy framework. In 2001 a new framework for monetary and fiscal policy was put in place, involving a flexible exchange rate and inflation targeting, as well as a new fiscal policy rule designed to facilitate consumption smoothing and a build-up of a sovereign wealth fund. We discuss possible reasons why Norway’s political system has been able to learn from previous policy failures and reach the necessary consensus, and determination, to implement institutional and structural reforms in economic policy.

• Witte, Kristof De & Geys, Benny (2013)
  Citizen coproduction and efficient public good provision: Theory and evidence from local public libraries

  European Journal of Operational Research, 224(3) , s. 592-602. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2012.09.002

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  In both public administration and economics, efficiency is brought forward as an important criterion for evaluating administrative actions. Clearly, its value as an assessment principle depends on our ability to adequately measure efficiency. This article argues that citizen's coproduction in public services requires a careful reassessment of how we approach the measurement of productive efficiency in public service delivery. Theoretically, we illustrate that using observable outcomes (e.g., library circulation, school results, health outcomes, fires extinguished, crimes solved) as output indicators is inappropriate and leads to biased estimates of public service providers' productive efficiency. This bias arises because citizens co-determine final outputs, leaving them at least partly beyond the service providers' control. Empirically, we find supportive evidence of both the existence and importance of such `demand-induced' bias.

• Bjørnenak, Trond; Fehr, Nils-Henrik M. von der, Moen, Espen R & Riis, Christian (2013)
  Plan eller marked? Om reguleringsregimet for markedet for videreforedling av melk

  [Report Research]. Hovedorganisasjonen Virke

• Irarrazabal, Alfonso; Moxnes, Andreas & Opromolla, Luca David (2013)
  The Margins of Multinational Production and the Role of Intrafirm Trade

  Journal of Political Economy, 121(1) , s. 74-126. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1086/669877

• Moen, Espen R & Rosen, Åsa Maria (2013)
  ON-THE-JOB SEARCH AND MORAL HAZARD

  Journal of the European Economic Association, 11(6) , s. 1404-1431. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/jeea.12066

• Brekke, Kurt; Dalen, Dag Morten & Holmås, Tor Helge (2013)
  Diffusion of pharmaceuticals: cross-country evidence of anti-TNF drugs

  European Journal of Health Economics, 15(9) , s. 937-951. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10198-013-0536-6 - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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  This article studies the diffusion of biopharmaceuticals across European countries, focusing on anti-TNF drugs, which are used to treat autoimmune diseases (e.g., rheumatism, psoriasis). We use detailed sales information on the three brands Remicade, Enbrel and Humira for nine European countries covering the period from the first launch in 2000 until becoming blockbusters in 2009. Descriptive statistics reveal large variations across countries in per-capita consumption and price levels both overall and at the brand level. We explore potential sources for the cross-country consumption differences by estimating several multivariate regression models. Our results show that large parts of the cross-country variation are explained by time-invariant country-specific factors (e.g., disease prevalence, demographics, health care system). We also find that differences in income [gross domestic product (GDP) per capita] and health spending (share of GDP) explain the cross-country variation in consumption, while relative price differences seem to have limited impact.

• Brekke, Kurt; Dalen, Dag Morten & Holmås, Tor Helge (2013)
  Diffusion of Pharmaceuticals: Cross-Country Evidence of Anti-TNF drugs

  [Report Research]. Department of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics

  Vis sammendrag

  This paper studies the di¤usion of biopharmaceuticals across European countries, focusing on anti-TNF drugs, which are used to treat autoimmune diseases (e.g., rheumatism, psoriasis). We use detailed sales information on the three brands Remicade, Enbrel and Humira for nine European countries covering the period from the fi…rst launch in 2000 until becoming blockbusters in 2009. Descriptive statistics reveal large variations across countries in per-capita consumption and price levels both overall and at brand level. We explore potential sources for the cross-country consumption differences by estimating several multivariate regression models. Our results show that large parts of the cross-country variation are explained by time-invariant country-speci…c factors (e.g., disease prevalence, demographics, health care system). We also fi…nd that differences in income (GDP per capita) and health spending (share of GDP) explain the cross-country variation in consumption, while relative price differences seem to have limited impact.

• Syse, Astri; Fiva, Jon H., Hægeland, Torbjørn & Rønning, Marte (2013)
  Access to treatment and educational inequalities in cancer survival

  [Report Research]. Statistisk sentralbyrå (SSB)

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  The public health care systems in the Nordic countries provide high quality care almost free of charge to all citizens. However, social inequalities in health persist. Previous research has, for example, documented substantial educational inequalities in cancer survival. We investigate to what extent this may be driven by differential access to and utilization of high quality treatment options. Quasi-experimental evidence based on the establishment of regional cancer wards indicates that i) highly educated individuals utilized centralized specialized treatment to a greater extent than less educated patients and ii) the use of such treatment improved these patients' survival.

• Billio, Monica; Casarin, Roberto, Ravazzolo, Francesco & Dijk, Herman K. van (2013)
  Time-varying combinations of predictive densities using nonlinear filtering

  Journal of Econometrics, 177(2) , s. 213-232. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2013.04.009

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  We propose a Bayesian combination approach for multivariate predictive densities which relies upon a distributional state space representation of the combination weights. Several speci cations of multivariate time-varying weights are introduced with a particular focus on weight dynamics driven by the past performance of the predictive densities and the use of learning mechanisms. In the proposed approach the model set can be incomplete, meaning that all models can be individually misspeci ed. A Sequential Monte Carlo method is proposed to approximate the ltering and predictive densities. The combination approach is assessed using statistical and utility-based performance measures for evaluating density forecasts of simulated data, US macroeconomic time series and surveys of stock market prices. Simulation results indicate that, for a set of linear autoregressive models, the combination strategy is successful in selecting, with probability close to one, the true model when the model set is complete and it is able to detect parameter instability when the model set includes the true model that has generated subsamples of data. Also, substantial uncertainty appears in the weights when predictors are similar; residual uncertainty reduces when the model set is complete; and learning reduces this uncertainty. For the macro series we nd that incompleteness of the models is relatively large in the 70's, the beginning of the 80's and during the recent nancial crisis, and lower during the Great Moderation; the predicted probabilities of recession accurately compare with the NBER business cycle dating; model weights have substantial uncertainty attached. With respect to returns of the S&P 500 series, we nd that an investment strategy using a combination of predictions from professional forecasters and from a white noise model puts more weight on the white noise model in the beginning of the 90's and switches to giving more weight to the professional forecasts over time. Information on the complete predictive distribution and not just on some moments turns out to be very important, above all during turbulent times such as the recent nancial crisis. More generally, the proposed distributional state space representation o ers a great exibility in combining densities.

• Borge, Lars-Erik; Steigum, Erling & Strandenes, Siri Pettersen (2013)
  "En mer effektiv konkurranselov" vant artikkelprisen 2012

  [Professional Article]. Samfunnsøkonomen, , s. 80-81.

• Irarrazabal, Alfonso; Moxnes, Andreas & Ulltveit-Moe, Karen Helene (2013)
  HETEROGENEOUS FIRMS OR HETEROGENEOUS WORKERS? IMPLICATIONS FOR EXPORTER PREMIUMS AND THE GAINS FROM TRADE

  Review of Economics and Statistics, 95(3) , s. 839-849. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1162/REST_a_00285

• Grytten, Jostein Ivar; Skau, Irene & Sørensen, Rune Jørgen (2013)
  Do Mothers Decide? The Impact of Preferences in Healthcare

  The Journal of human resources, 48(1) , s. 142-168. Doi: https://doi.org/10.3368/jhr.48.1.142

• Naimy, Zainab; Grytten, Jostein Ivar, Monkerud, Lars Christian & Eskild, Anne (2013)
  Perinatal mortality in non-western migrants in Norway as compared to their countries of birth and to Norwegian women

  BMC Public Health, 13(37 (Jan 15)) Doi: https://doi.org/10.1186/1471-2458-13-37

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  Background A large number of women from countries with a high perinatal mortality rate (PMR) settle in countries with a low PMR. We compared the PMRs for migrants in Norway with the PMRs in their countries of birth. We also assessed the risk of perinatal death in offspring of migrant women as compared to offspring of Norwegian women. Methods The Medical Birth Registry of Norway and the Norwegian Central Person Registry provided data on births in Norway during the years 1986 to 2005 among all women born in Norway, Pakistan, Vietnam, Somalia, Sri Lanka, Philippines, Iraq, Thailand and Afghanistan. Information on the PMRs in the countries of birth was obtained from the World Health Organisation (WHO) for the years 1995, 2000 and 2004. Mean PMRs in Norway during 1986–2005 were calculated by mother’s country of birth, and the risks of perinatal death by country of birth were estimated as odds ratios (OR) using Norwegian women as the reference. Adjustments were made for mother’s age, plurality, parity, year of birth and gestational age at birth. Results The PMRs for migrants in Norway were lower than in their countries of birth. The largest difference was in Afghan women (97 deaths per 1000 births in Afghanistan versus 24 deaths per 1000 births in Afghan women in Norway), followed by Iraqi and Somali women. As compared with Norwegian women, the adjusted odds ratio (OR) of perinatal death was highest for Afghan (OR 4.01 CI: 2.40 – 6.71), Somali (OR 1.83 CI: 1.44 - 2.34) and Sri Lankan (OR 1.76 CI: 1.36 – 2.27) women. Conclusions The lower PMRs for migrants in Norway as compared to the PMRs in their countries of birth may be explained by access to better health care after migration. The increased risk of perinatal death in migrants as compared to Norwegians encourages further research.

• Eskild, Anne; Monkerud, Lars Christian & Tanbo, Tom Gunnar (2013)
  Birthweight and placental weight; do changes in culture media used for IVF matter? Comparisons with spontaneous pregnancies in the corresponding time periods

  Human Reproduction, 28(12) , s. 3207-3214. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1093/humrep/det376

• Foldnes, Njål; Foss, Tron & Olsson, Ulf H. (2012)
  Residuals and the Residual-Based Statistic for Testing Goodness of Fit of Structural Equation Models

  Journal of educational and behavioral statistics, 37(3) , s. 367-386. Doi: https://doi.org/10.3102/1076998611411920

• Hansen, Robert (2012)
  Matematikk for økonomer

  [Textbook]. BI Nettstudier

• Helland, Leif & Heggedal, Tom-Reiel (2012)
  Ongoing quest for QWERTY

  [Report Research]. Handelshøyskolen BI

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  First, we replicate the remarkable result of Hossain & Morgan (AER 2009), in which subjects in an experimental market tip almost perfectly to the superior platform even if an inferior platform enjoys initial monopoly. Next, we show that this result disappear when seemingly innocent increases in out-of-equilibrium payoffs are introduced. The inflated payoffs do not alter payoff- or risk-dominance relations, and does not impact on players' security levels. We conclude that the need for a theory of equilibrium selection cannot be bypassed by appealing to the realities of the (experimental) market place.

• Helland, Leif & Sørensen, Rune Jørgen (2012)
  Persistent rent extraction

  Public Choice, 153(1-2) , s. 205-213. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11127-011-9785-z

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  Representative democracy does not necessarily eliminate political corruption. Existing models explain the survival of rent-taking politicians by ideological divisions in the electorate and/or informational asymmetries. The current paper demonstrate that rent extraction can persist even if voters are fully informed and ideologically homogenous. We show that in such an environment, voters may gain by persistently reelecting a rent-taker that limits his rent extraction. Such an equilibrium occurs when voters and politicians do not discount the future too heavily, and the share of honest candidates is relatively small.

• Maurseth, Per Botolf (2012)
  With Roger Svensson, Microevidence on International Patenting (2012) IFN Working Paper 934

  [Report Research]. Research Institute of Industrial Economics

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2012)
  Penge- og valutapolitikken i Kina

  Kinas økonomi, , s. 206-223.

• Dalen, Dag Morten & Moen, Espen R (2012)
  Ownership and Cost-Sharing Contracts

  Australian Economic Papers, 51(3) , s. 134-146. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8454.2012.00428.x

• Foldnes, Njål; Olsson, Ulf H. & Foss, Tron (2012)
  The effect of kurtosis on the power of two test statistics in covariance structure analysis

  British Journal of Mathematical & Statistical Psychology, 65(1) , s. 1-18. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2044-8317.2010.02010.x

• Sørensen, Rune Jørgen (2012)
  Hvorfor har vi så mange små kommuner? Foredrag på NHOs Årskonferanse, 5. januar 2012

  [Popular Science Article]. Magma forskning og viten, 15(5) Doi: https://doi.org/10.23865/magma.v15.769

• Sørensen, Rune Jørgen & Thomsen, Carlo (2012)
  Norske departementer i skjæringspunktet mellom politikk og fag

  [Popular Science Article]. Administrativ Debat, (1) , s. 22-24.

• Bjørnland, Hilde C; Aastveit, Knut Are & Thorsrud, Leif Anders (2012)
  What drives oil prices? Emerging versus developed economies

  [Report Research]. Handelshøyskolen BI

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  We analyze the importance of demand from emerging and developed economies as drivers of the real price of oil over the last two decades. Using a factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) model that allows us to distinguish between different groups of countries, we find that demand from emerging economies (most notably from Asian countries) is more than twice as important as demand from developed countries in accounting for the fluctuations in the real price of oil and in oil production. Furthermore, we find that different geographical regions respond differently to oil supply shocks and oil- specific demand shocks that drive up oil prices, with Europe and North America being more negatively affected than emerging economies in Asia and South America. We demonstrate that this heterogeneity in responses is not only attributable to differences in energy intensity in production across regions but also to degree of openness and the investment share in GDP.

• Natvik, Gisle James (2012)
  Government Spending Shocks and Rule-of-Thumb Consumers with Steady State Inequality

  The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 114, s. 1414-1436. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9442.2012.01727.x

• Røed-Larsen, Erling (2012)
  Pengenes natur og tidlige historie

  [Popular Science Article]. Formue, (2) , s. 4-4.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2012)
  PÅ VANDRING

  [Report Research]. Handelshøyskolen BI

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  Dette arbeidsnotatet er en samling av Arne Jon Isachsens "Månedsbrevet" fra årets seks første måneder. Følgende artikler er inkludert i notatet: 1) På vandring; 2) Hva er luksus?; 3) Bjørnen sover, eller…?; 4) LTRO; 5) Maktkamp i Kina?; 6) Forvaltningen av Statens Pensjonsfond 2011; 7) Et par finansielle innovasjoner - hvem har nytte av dem?

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2012)
  Kinas Vei

  Pax Forlag

• Holtsmark, Bjart & Sommervoll, Dag Einar (2012)
  International emissions trading: Good or bad?

  Economics Letters, 117(1) , s. 362-364. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2012.05.034

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2012)
  The role of China as a world power: What does China want?

  Business and politics in a new global order, , s. 273-300.

• Røed-Larsen, Erling (2012)
  Kan vi bare trykke penger? Formue

  [Popular Science Article]. Formue,

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2012)
  IS CHINA FALLING APART?

  [Report Research]. Handelshøyskolen BI

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  On 1 October 1949 Mao proclaimed the People’s Republic of China. On Tiananmen Square that day was Li Shenzhi, together with tens of thousand of other young, idealistic and excited Communists. “China”, wrote Li when later he was to describe this day, “had said farewell forever to the past … to backwardness, to poverty and to ignorance, and had set out on a completely new road, to liberty, equality and fraternity”. But this is not how it turned out. “The nearly thirty years of the People’s Republic up to 1976 could thus be said to have been a reign of terror”, wrote Li Shenzhi in 1999 – 50 years after the establishment of the People’s Republic.

• Hansen, Robert (2012)
  Mikroøkonomi

  [Textbook]. BI Nettstudier

• Andersen, Jørgen Juel (2012)
  Costs of taxation and the size of government

  Public Choice, 153(1-2) , s. 83-115. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11127-011-9776-0

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  Existing theory on the form of government suggests that a parliamentary system promotes a larger size of government than does a presidential system. This paper extends the existing theory by allowing for distortionary taxation. A main result is that if taxation is sufficiently distortionary, the parliamentary system may promote a smaller size of government than the presidential system. The proposed mechanism appears consistent with several empirical patterns in the data that cannot be explained by other theories.

• Geys, Benny (2012)
  Association Membership and Generalised Trust: Are Connections Between Associations Losing their Value?

  Journal of Civil Society, 8(1) , s. 1-15. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/17448689.2012.665646

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  Research linking civic engagement to citizens’ democratic values, generalized trust, cooperative norms, and so on often implicitly assumes such connections are stable over time. This article argues that, due to changes in the broader institutional environment, the engagement-values relation is likely to generally lack temporal stability. We investigate this empirically by analysing the engagement-trust relation using World Values Survey (WVS) data from the 1990 and 2000 waves. Overall, our results show that voluntary association memberships remain positively associated with generalized trust in both samples, but evidence that memberships in connected associations are better than in isolated ones appears, at best, scant in more recent years.

• Ben-Bassat, Avi; Dahan, Momi, Geys, Benny & Klor, Esteban F. (2012)
  The Impact of the Economic Costs of Conflict on Individuals’ Political Attitudes

  Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy, 18(2) Doi: https://doi.org/10.1515/1554-8597.1256

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  A large number of studies show that war and terrorism have a significant effect on individuals’ political attitudes. Yet, this extensive literature does not inspect the mechanisms behind this effect. This paper concentrates on one possible mechanism, by differentiating between the human toll of terror and war and the economic costs they cause. For these purposes we focus on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and use variation in the level of violence across time and space together with localities’ different exposure to the tourism sector to estimate their respective effects on political attitudes. Our results suggest that whereas fatalities from the conflict make Israelis more willing to grant territorial concessions to the Palestinians, the associated economic costs of conflict do not have a consistent significant effect on individuals’ political attitudes.

• Marin, J. Miguel & Sucarrat, Genaro (2012)
  Modelling the skewed exponential power distribution in finance

  Mathematical and statistical methods for actuarial sciences and finance, , s. 279-286. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-88-470-2342-0_33

• Beatty, Timothy K.M. & Sommervoll, Dag Einar (2012)
  Discrimination in rental markets: Evidence from Norway

  Journal of Housing Economics, 21(2) , s. 121-130. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhe.2012.03.001

• Tuyckom, Charlotte Van & Jøreskog, Karl Gustaf (2012)
  C. Van Tuyckom, & K. Joreskog, "Going for gold! Welfare characteristics and Olympic success: an application of the structural equation approach." Quality &amp; Quantity (in press)

  Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, 46(1) , s. 189-205. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-010-9351-7

• Griesshaber, Nicolas & Geys, Benny (2012)
  Civic Engagement and Corruption in 20 European Democracies

  European Societies, 14(1) , s. 57-81. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/14616696.2011.638084

• Geys, Benny (2012)
  Limitations of the KISS Principle and a Strong Organisational Society: A Rejoinder to Wollebaek and Selle

  Journal of Civil Society, 8(2) , s. 201-206. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/17448689.2012.686753

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  In their discussion of my article, Dag Wollebaek and Per Selle agree with my central point that changes in the institutional and socio-political context are likely to affect the engagement-values relation over time, and that more theoretical and empirical research is required to better understand the underlying connections. They then highlight a number of weaknesses in my empirical analysis. First, they criticise the operationalization of the isolated-connected distinction I borrow from Paxton (2002, 2007), and point to the scope of engagement as a way of ‘keeping it simple’. Second, they express disbelief in the apparent strength of the correlations at the individual level compared to the aggregate level in my analysis, and assert that an ‘organizational society of broad scope’ is primary. In this rejoinder, I briefly discuss both comments.

• Geys, Benny (2012)
  Success and Failure in Electoral Competition: Selective Issue Emphasis under Incomplete Issue Ownership

  Electoral Studies: an international journal on voting and electoral systems and strategy, 31(2) , s. 406-412. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2012.01.005

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  Political parties are often argued to compete for voters by stressing issues they feel they own – a strategy known as ‘selective emphasis’. While usually seen as an electorally rewarding strategy, this article argues that cultivating ‘your’ themes in the public debate is not guaranteed to be electorally beneficial and may even become counter-productive. It describes the conditions under which ‘selective emphasis’ becomes counter-productive, and applies the argument to recent discussions regarding the strategies of mainstream parties confronting the extreme right.

• Jakobsen, Mads & Sørensen, Rune Jørgen (2012)
  Er offentligt ansatte blevet som de private? En analyse af arbejdsmotivation i den offentlige og private sektor over tid

  Politica - Tidsskrift for politisk videnskab, 44(1) Doi: https://doi.org/10.7146/politica.v44i1.69936

• Sucarrat, Genaro & Escribano, Alvaro (2012)
  Automated Model Selection in Finance: General-to-Specific Modelling of the Mean and Volatility Specifications

  Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 74(5) , s. 716-735. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0084.2011.00669.x

• Maurseth, Per Botolf & Svensson, Roger (2012)
  International patenting

  [Report Research]. NUPI

• Bjørnland, Hilde C; Gerdrup, Karsten, Jore, Anne Sofie, Smith, Christie & Thorsrud, Leif Anders (2012)
  Does Forecast Combination Improve Norges Bank Inflation Forecasts?

  Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 74(2) , s. 163-179. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0084.2011.00639.x

• Qari, Salmai; Konrad, Kai A. & Geys, Benny (2012)
  Patriotism, taxation and international mobility

  Public Choice, 151(3-4) , s. 695-717. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11127-011-9765-3

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  Patriotic citizens intrinsically prefer living in their native country compared to living in the Diaspora. In this paper, we analyze the consequences of such a “patriotic lock-in” in a world with international migration and redistributive taxation. One implication is that countries with more patriotic populations are associated with higher redistributive taxes. We then combine ISSP survey data with OECD taxation data and provide empirical evidence supporting this hypothesis. Our results provide a word of caution: the Treasury’s inherent interest in patriotic taxpayers may strengthen the political push for patriotism in an age of globalization and increased mobility.

• Kalb, Alexander; Geys, Benny & Heinemann, Friedrich (2012)
  Value for money? German local government efficiency in a comparative perspective

  Applied Economics, 44(2) , s. 201-218. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2010.502110

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  In this paper, we investigate the cost efficiency of German local governments in the state of Baden-Württemberg in 2004 using a stochastic frontier approach. Besides being the first study on German data, we add two elements to the literature. First, we provide a comparative perspective, allowing us to embed our results in the broader literature. Second, unlike most previous studies, we explicitly account for exogenous or non-discretionary influences when estimating municipal efficiency scores. The results suggest that disregarding such exogenous factors can lead to significant and systematic bias in the estimated inefficiency levels. Particularly, underestimation of efficiency occurs for municipalities with high tourist activity, while the reverse is true for municipalities with high unemployment.

• Geys, Benny & Mause, Karsten (2012)
  Delegation, Accountability and Legislator Moonlighting: Agency Problems in Germany

  German Politics, 21(3) , s. 255-273. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/09644008.2012.716040

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  Members of parliament in many countries are legally permitted to execute (un)paid jobs in addition to their political mandate. It is often argued that such ‘moonlighting’ activities are unproblematic for the chain of democratic delegation and accountability as long as outside interests/earnings are disclosed to citizen-principals; the latter may then sanction (perceived) misconduct through the ballot box. Using principal-agent theory as an analytical framework and the German national parliament as a case study, this paper discusses why the accountability mechanisms of moonlighting disclosure and electoral control are often impaired in practice. We also illustrate that these concerns generalise beyond the German setting.

• Maurseth, Per Botolf & Medin, Hege (2012)
  Market specific fixed and sunk export costs – Learning and spillovers

  [Report Research]. Norwegian Institute of International Affairs

• Katsikatsou, Myrsini; Moustaki, Irini, Yang-Wallentin, Fan & Jøreskog, Karl Gustaf (2012)
  Pairwise likelihood estimation for factor analysis models with ordinal data

  Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, 56(12) , s. 4243-4258. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csda.2012.04.010

• Brekke, Kurt; Dalen, Dag Morten & Strøm, Steinar (2012)
  Should pharmaceutical costs be curbed?

  Nordic Economic Policy Review, 2, s. 1-27.

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  Pharmaceuticals account for almost a fifth of total health spending in OECD-countries. Both pharmaceutical innovations and the aging of the population explain the increasing importance of pharmaceuticals in health care. Due to the importance of patent protection and insurance coverage, pharmaceutical markets are subjected to economic regulation – both on the supply-side and the demand-side. In this paper, we briefly review the Nordic pharmaceutical market, before explaining the main regulatory policy measures taken by governments in these countries. Empirical re-search has been undertaken to investigate regulation and competition, and we provide a review of some of the findings.

• Hammervold, Randi & Olsson, Ulf (2012)
  Testing structural equation models: the impact of error variances in the data generating process

  Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, 46(5) , s. 1547-1570. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-011-9466-5

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  Yet another paper on fit measures? To our knowledge, very few papers discuss how fit measures are affected by error variance in the Data Generating Process (DGP). The present paper deals with this. Based upon an extensive simulation study, this paper shows that the effects of increased error variance differ significantly for various fit measures. In addition to error variance the effects depend on sample size and severity of misspecification. The findings confirm the general notion that good fit as measured by the chi-square, RMSEA and GFI etc. does not necessarily mean that the model is correctly specified and reliable. One finding is that the chi square test may give support to misspecified models in situations with a high level of error variance in the DGP, for small sample sizes. Another finding is that the chi-square test looses power also for large sample sizes when the model is negligible misspecified. Other results include incremental fit indices as NFI and RFI which prove to be more informative indicators under these circumstances. At the end of the paper we formulate some guidelines for use of different fit measures.

• Helland, Leif; Hovi, Jon & Monkerud, Lars Christian (2012)
  Can exit prizes induce lame ducks to shirk less? Experimental evidence

  European Journal of Government and Economics, 1(2) , s. 106-125. Doi: https://doi.org/10.17979/ejge.2012.1.2.4280

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  Elected representatives serving their final period face only weak incentives to provide costly effort. However, overlapping generations (OLG) models suggest that exit prizes sustained by trigger strategies can induce representatives in their final period to provide such effort. We evaluate this hypothesis using a simple OLG public good experiment, the central treatment being whether exit prizes are permitted. We find that a significantly higher number of subjects in their final period contribute when exit prizes are permitted. However, this result does not originate from use of trigger strategies. More likely explanations include gift-exchange and focal-point effects.

• Bjørnland, Hilde C & Jacobsen, Dag Henning (2012)
  House prices and stock prices: Different roles in the U.S. monetary transmission mechanism

  [Report Research]. Handelshøyskolen BI

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  We analyze the role of house and stock prices in the monetary policy transmission mechanism in the U.S. using a structural VAR model. The VAR is identifed using a combination of short-run and long-run (neutrality) restrictions, allowing for contemporaneous interaction between monetary policy and asset prices. By allowing the interest rate and asset prices to react simultaneously to news, we find different roles for house and stock prices in the monetary transmission mechanism. In particular, following a contractionary monetary policy shock, stock prices fall immediately, while the response in house prices is much more gradual. However, the fall in both house prices and stock prices enhances the negative response in output and inflation that has traditionally been found in the literature. Regarding the systematic response in monetary policy, stock prices play a more important role in the interest rate setting in the short run than house prices. As a consequence, shocks to house prices contribute more to GDP and inflation fluctuations than stock price shocks.

• Hoel, Michael Olaf; Strøm, Steinar & Dalen, Dag Morten (2012)
  Tariffering og bruk av gassinfrastruktur

  [Report Research]. Vista Analyse AS

• Geys, Benny & Murdoch, Zuzana (2012)
  Instrumental Calculation, Cognitive Role-Playing, or Both? Self-Perceptions of Seconded National Experts in the European Commission

  Journal of European Public Policy, 19(9) , s. 1357-1376. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/13501763.2012.677186

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  Most work studying micro-processes of integration – i.e. how agents develop identities and decision-making behaviours within a particular institution – offers explanations based on either instrumental rationality or socialisation. This article proposes a two-dimensional framework that allows analysing under which conditions both logics of social action co-exist. Our empirical analysis employs a unique dataset from a 2011 survey of all 1098 currently active Seconded National Experts (SNEs) in the European Commission. We find that a) instrumental cost-benefit calculation and cognitive role-playing (as semi-reflexive socialisation) often simultaneously influence SNEs’ (perceptions of their) behaviour, and b) this joint presence of both logics of social action depends on certain scope conditions (i.e., SNEs’ education, length of prior embeddedness and noviceness).

• Strøm, Steinar; Hoel, Michael Olaf & Dalen, Dag Morten (2012)
  Verdsetting av økosystemtjenester

  [Report Research]. Vista Analyse AS

• Borge, Lars-Erik; Steigum, Erling & Strandenes, Siri P. (2012)
  Skaper velferdsstaten større sosiale helseforskjeller

  [Professional Article]. Samfunnsøkonomen, 26(1) , s. 52-53.

• Bergholt, Drago & Lujala, Paivi (2012)
  Climate-related natural disasters, economic growth, and armed civil conflict

  Journal of Peace Research, 49(1) , s. 147-162. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343311426167

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  Global warming is expected to make the climate warmer, wetter, and wilder. It is predicted that such climate change will increase the severity and frequency of climate-related disasters like flash floods, surges, cyclones and severe storms. This article uses econometric methods to study the consequences of climate-induced natural disasters on economic growth, and how these disasters are linked to the onset of armed civil conflict either directly or via their impact on economic growth. The results show that climate-related natural disasters have a negative effect on growth and that the impact is considerable. The analysis of conflict onset shows that climate-related natural disasters do not increase the risk of armed conflict. This is also true when we instrument the change in GDP growth by climatic disasters. The result is robust to inclusion of country and time fixed effects, different estimations techniques, various operationalization of the disasters measure as well as for conflict incidence and war onset. These findings have two major implications: if climate change increases the frequency or make weather-related natural disasters more severe, it is an economic concern for countries susceptible to these types of hazards. However, our results suggest – based on historical data – that more frequent and severe climate-related disasters will not lead to more armed conflicts through their effects on GDP growth.

• Grytten, Jostein Ivar; Monkerud, Lars Christian & Sørensen, Rune Jørgen (2012)
  Adoption of Diagnostic Technology and Variation in Caesarean Section Rates: A Test of the Practice Style Hypothesis in Norway

  Health Services Research (HSR), 47(6) , s. 2169-2189. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-6773.2012.01419.x

• Bourjade, Sylvain & Schindele, Ibolya (2012)
  Group lending with endogenous group size

  Economics Letters, 117(3) , s. 556-560. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2012.07.034

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  This paper focuses on the size of the borrower group in group lending. We show that, when social ties in a community enhance borrowers incentives to exert e¤ort, a pro t-maximizing nancier chooses a group of limited size. Borrowers that would be fundable under moral hazard but have insu¢ cient social ties do not receive funding. The result arises because there is a trade-o¤ between raising pro ts through increased group size and providing incentives for borrowers with less social ties. The result may explain why many micro-lending institutions and rural credit cooperatives lend to groups of small size

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2011)
  Etter finanskrisen

  [Popular Science Article]. Sparebankbladet, (4)

• Bjørnland, Hilde C & Wilhelmsen, Bjørn Roger (2011)
  Norges Bank Watch 2011 An Independent Evaluation of Monetary Policy in Norway

  [Report Research]. Handelshøyskolen BI

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2011)
  Den norske modellen

  [Professional Article]. Sparebankbladet, (3)

• Hansen, Robert & Synnestvedt, Terje (2011)
  Anvendt mikroøkonomi

  [Textbook]. BI Nettstudier

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2011)
  Island. Først alt galt, så alt rett?

  [Popular Science Article]. Sparebankbladet, (6/7)

• Eriksen, Eivind (2011)
  The Generalized Burnside Theorem in Noncommutative Deformation Theory

  Journal of Generalized Lie Theory and Applications, 5 Doi: https://doi.org/10.4303/jglta/G110109

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  Let A be an associative algebra over a field k, and let be a finite family of right A-modules. A study of the noncommutative deformation functor Def of the family leads to the construction of the algebra A() of observables and the generalized Burnside theorem, due to Laudal (2002). In this paper, we give an overview of aspects of noncommutative deformations closely connected to the generalized Burnside theorem.

• Bjørnland, Hilde C; Thorsrud, Leif Anders & Aastveit, Knut Are (2011)
  The World is not enough! Small open ecnomics and regional dependence

  [Report Research]. Norges Bank

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2011)
  FELLES VALUTA KREVER FELLES VANER

  [Report Research]. Handelshøyskolen BI

  Vis sammendrag

  Notatet er en samling av Arne Jon Isachsens "Månedsbrev" for siste halvvår 2011. Samlingen består av følgende artikler: 1) Island – først alt galt, så alt riktig 2) I kajakk på Skurdalsfjorden – The Summer of 2011; 3) Lærdommer av finanskrisen; 4) Soloppgangens land; 5) Soloppgangens land; 6) Kina og USA – kunstig vennskap?; 7) Hvor er det blitt av den amerikanske drømmen?; 8) Sanering av gjeld – er det alt som skal til?

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2011)
  PENGE- OG VALUTAPOLITIKK I KINA

  [Report Research]. Handelshøyskolen BI

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  I skjæringspunktet mellom økonomi og politikk finner vi penge- og valutapolitikken. Det gjelder i alle land. Penger er makt. Når vi nå skal se nærmere på kinesisk penge- og valutapolitikk, er det viktig å ha et blikk for den maktpolitiske siden av saken. Det fordrer en god forståelse av hvordan finansvesenet i Kina egentlig fungerer. ”Egentlig”, fordi mange av begrepene er de samme som hos oss, men innholdet i dem ofte et annet.1 Etter noen innledende observasjoner ser jeg på valutapolitikken frem til nå. På tilsvarende vis tar jeg for meg pengepolitikken. Deretter blir penge- og valutapolitikken i tiden fremover diskutert. Kina står overfor store utfordringer på begge områdene. Det realøkonomiske bakteppet er å utvikle en økonomi der privat og offentlig konsum tar over for eksport og realinvesteringer som drivkrefter i økonomien. Hvordan kan pengeog valutapolitikken bidra til en slik utvikling? Diskusjonen mellom USA og Kina om et passende valutapolitisk regime i Midtens Rike er viet et eget avsnitt. Artikkelen avsluttes med en oppsummering av de viktigste punktene. Selv om Kina i mange år holder frem med imponerende økonomisk vekst, vil det ta flere tiår før den kinesiske yuanen for alvor vil gjøre den amerikanske dollaren rangen stridig som ledende verdensvaluta.

• Bergholt, Drago & Aas, Øyvind Nilsen (2011)
  Sammendrag av 26th European Economic Association and 65th Econometric Society European Meeting (EEA-ESEM)

  [Professional Article]. Samfunnsøkonomen, (8) , s. 24-29.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2011)
  Slutt på billig kapital?

  [Professional Article]. Sparebankbladet, (2)

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2011)
  Lærdommer av finanskrisen

  [Popular Science Article]. Sparebankbladet, (8)

• Andersen, Jørgen Juel (2011)
  The form of government and fiscal dynamics

  European Journal of Political Economy, 27(2) , s. 297-310. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2010.10.004

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  Using a combination of time-series variation in oil prices and cross-section variation in the oil intensity of countries, this paper investigates whether exogenous shifts in the government revenues a¤ect the government expenditures di¤erently depending on the political institutions of the form of government. Comparing the scal policy dynamics in parliamentary and presidential systems, a main nding is that the government expenditures appear more responsive to shifts in the revenues when the form of government is presidential.

• Helland, Leif (2011)
  Partisan conflicts and parliamentary dominance: the Norwegian political business cycle

  Public Choice, 147(1-2) , s. 139-154. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11127-010-9608-7

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  The arcticle explores the political business cycle in Norway from the early 1980s onwards. It is shown that unemployment growth is related to uncertainty about likely parliamentary majorities, and to the level of political conflict between such majorities. Data indicate that voter expectations are formed on the basis of likely majority winners in votes, not in seats. Unemployment growth is unrelated to sudden and unpredictable changes in the composition of government. This suggests that the instruments in uencing unemployment growth are within the domain of the legislative, not the executive, power.

• Steigum, Erling (2011)
  Robotics and growth

  Economic Growth and Development; Frontiers of Economics and Globalization, volume 11, , s. 543-555.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2011)
  Finansmarkeder i ulage

  [Popular Science Article]. Sparebankbladet, (1)

• Røed-Larsen, Erling (2011)
  Bør Europa ha sin egen valuta, Formue 1/2011, s 5-11

  [Professional Article]. Formue, 1, s. 5-11.

• Røed-Larsen, Erling (2011)
  Europas vei videre: integrasjon eller separasjon? Formue 2/2011, s 5 – 11

  [Professional Article]. Formue, 2, s. 5-11.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2011)
  Hvor er det blitt av den amerikanske drømmen?

  [Popular Science Article]. Sparebankbladet, (12)

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2011)
  Kina og USA – kunstig vennskap?

  [Popular Science Article]. Sparebankbladet, (11)

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2011)
  Soloppgangens land

  [Popular Science Article]. Sparebankbladet, (9)

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2011)
  Hva skjer i Russland?

  [Popular Science Article]. Sparebankbladet, (5)

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2011)
  ØKONOMI ER RISIKOSPORT

  [Report Research]. Handelshøyskolen BI

  Vis sammendrag

  Dette arbeidsnotatet inneholder Arne Jon Isachsens 'Månedsbrevet' for første halvår i 2011.

• Aastveit, Knut Are; Thorsrud, Leif Anders, Gerdrup, Karsten & Jore, Anne Sofie (2011)
  Nowcasting GDP in Real-Time: A Density Combination Approach

  [Report Research]. Handelshøyskolen BI

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  In this paper we use U.S. real-time vintage data and produce combined density nowcasts for quarterly GDP growth from a system of three commonly used model classes. The density nowcasts are combined in two steps. First, a wide selection of individual models within each model class are combined separately. Then, the nowcasts from the three model classes are combined into a single predictive density. We update the density nowcast for every new data release throughout the quarter, and highlight the importance of new information for the evaluation period 1990Q2-2010Q3. Our results show that the logarithmic score of the predictive densities for U.S. GDP increase almost monotonically as new information arrives during the quarter. While the best performing model class is changing during the quarter, the density nowcasts from our combination framework is always performing well both in terms of logarithmic scores and calibration tests. The density combination approach is superior to a simple model selection strategy and also performs better in terms of point forecast evaluation than standard point forecast combinations.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2011)
  Økonomi er risikosport

  [Popular Science Article]. Magma forskning og viten, (2) , s. 11-14.

• Røed-Larsen, Erling & Sommervoll, Dag Einar (2011)
  Prisdannelsen i det norske leiemarkedet: en teoretisk og empirisk analyse av hovedmekanismer generelt og utsatte grupper spesielt

  [Report Research]. regjeringen.no

• Riis, Christian & Moen, Espen R (2011)
  Moderne mikroøkonomi

  [Textbook]. Gyldendal Akademisk

• Moen, Espen R (2011)
  Hvorfor faller ikkke lønningene mer i nedgangstider?

  [Popular Science Article]. Samfunnsøkonomen, 125(11) , s. 30-31.

• Steigum, Erling (2011)
  The Norwegian Banking Crisis in the 1990s: Effects and Lessons

  [Report Research]. Handelshøyskolen BI

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2011)
  Euroens skjebne

  [Popular Science Article]. Sparebankbladet, (10)

• Foss, Tron; Jøreskog, Karl Gustaf & Olsson, Ulf H. (2011)
  Testing structural equation models: The effect of kurtosis

  Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, 55(7) , s. 2263-2275. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csda.2011.01.012

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  The Satorra Bentler (SB) and the Browne ADF chi-square statistics are used for testing structural equation models with non-normal data. The relationships between the SB and ADF statistics and kurtosis are developed and it is shown that the weighted deviations of the "population" true second-order moments and the tted second-order moments for these statistics tend to decrease with increasing kurtosis if the model does not hold. The results predict that high kurtosis can lead to loss of power. The results are obtained without simulation.

• Bjørnland, Hilde C; Aastveit, Knut Are & Thorsrud, Leif Anders (2011)
  The world is not enough! Small open economies and regional dependence

  [Report Research]. Handelshøyskolen BI

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  This paper bridges the new open economy factor augmented VAR (FAVAR) studies with the recent findings in the business cycle synchronization literature emphasizing the importance of regional factors. That is, we estimate and identify a three block FAVAR model with separate world, regional and domestic blocks and study the transmission of both global and regional shocks to four small open economies (Canada, New Zealand, Norway and UK). The results show that foreign shocks explain a major share of the variance in all countries, most so shocks that are common to the world. However, regional shocks also play an important role, explaining more than 20 percent of the variance in the variables. Hence in small open economies, the world is not enough. The regional factors impact the four countries differently, though, some through trade and some through consumer sentiment. Our findings of a strong transmission of both global and regional shocks to open economies are in sharp contrast to the evidence from recently developed open economy DSGE models.

• Heggedal, Tom-Reiel & Jacobsen, Karl (2011)
  Timing of innovation policies when carbon emissions are restricted: An applied general equilibrium analysis

  Resource and Energy Economics, 33(4) , s. 913-937. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2010.12.002

• Geys, Benny & Revelli, Federico (2011)
  Economic and political foundations of local tax structures: an empirical investigation of the tax mix of Flemish municipalities

  Environment and Planning. C, Government and Policy, 29(3) , s. 410-427. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1068/c10116r

• Swain, Ranjula Bali & Wallentin, Fan Yang (2011)
  Factors empowering women in Indian self-help group programs

  International Review of Applied Economics, Doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/02692171.2011.595398

• Moen, Espen R & Rosén, Åsa (2011)
  Incentives in Competitive Search Equilibrium

  Review of Economic Studies, 78(2) , s. 733-761. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdq011

• Fiva, Jon H. & Kirkebøen, Lars Johannessen (2011)
  Information Shocks and the Dynamics of the Housing Market

  The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 113(3) , s. 525-552. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9442.2011.01651.x

• Sommervoll, Dag Einar & Wood, Gavin (2011)
  Home Equity Insurance

  Journal of Financial Economic Policy, 3(1) , s. 66-85. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1108/17576381111116768

• Bjørnland, Hilde C; Gerdrup, Karsten, Jore, Anne Sofie, Smith, Christie & Thorsrud, Leif Anders (2011)
  Weights and pools for a Norwegian density combination

  The North American journal of economics and finance, 22(1) , s. 61-76. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.najef.2010.09.001

• Bjørnland, Hilde C; Leitemo, Kai & Maih, Junior (2011)
  Estimating the natural rates in a simple New Keynesian framework

  Empirical Economics, 40(3) , s. 755-777. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-010-0366-7

• Rattsø, Jørn & Sørensen, Rune Jørgen (2011)
  Statlige selskaper med sektorpolitiske mål: En evaluering av statlig styring

  [Report Research]. Handelshøyskolen BI

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  I rapporten analyseres styring og styringsrelasjoner overfor statlige selskaper og forvaltningsorganer med eget styre. Virksomhetene omfatter forretningsorienterte selskaper som selger produkter på markeder med sterk konkurranse, selskaper med stor markedsmakt eller monopolposisjon som er finansiert ved regulerte priser eller avgifter, helseforetak som er fullfinansiert over statsbudsjettet og står overfor lite konkurranse, og ulike typer virksomhet organisert som tradisjonell forvaltning. Analysen bygger på data fra en omfattende spørreskjemaundersøkelse blant styremedlemmer og daglig ledere. Formålet med studien er å kartlegge hvordan staten styrer, og hvordan styringen oppfattes i virksomhetens styre og ledelse. Hovedresultatene er oppsummert i avsnitt 6.

• Berglann, Helge; Moen, Espen R, Røed, Knut & Skogstrøm, Jens Fredrik Baumgarten (2011)
  Entrepreneurship: Origins and returns

  Labour Economics, 18(2) , s. 180-193. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2010.10.002

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  We examine the origins and outcome of entrepreneurship on the basis of exceptionally comprehensive Norwegian matched worker–firm–owner data. In contrast to most existing studies, our notion of entrepreneurship not only comprises self-employment, but also employment in partly self-owned limited liability companies. Based on this extended entrepreneurship concept, we find that entrepreneurship tends to be profitable. It also raises income variability, but the most successful quartile gains much more than the least successful quartile loses. Key determinants of the decision to become an entrepreneur are occupational qualifications, family resources, gender, and work environments. Individual unemployment encourages, while aggregate unemployment discourages, entrepreneurship.

• Eriksen, Eivind & Siqveland, Arvid (2011)
  Geometry of Noncommutative Algebras

  Banach Center Publications, 93, s. 69-82. Doi: https://doi.org/10.4064/bc93-0-6

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  There has been several attempts to generalize commutative algebraic geometry to the noncommutative situation. Localizations with good properties rarely exists for noncommutative algebras, and this makes a direct generalization di cult. Our point of view, following Laudal, is that the points of the noncommutative geometry should be represented as simple modules, and that noncommutative deformations should be used to obtain a suitable localization in the noncommutative situation. Let A be an algebra over an algebraically closed eld k. If A is commutative and nitely generated over k, then any simple A-module has the form M = A=m, the residue eld, for a maximal ideal m A, and the commutative deformation functor DefM has formal moduli A^m. In the general case, we may replace the A-module A=m with the simple A-module M, and use the formal moduli of the commutative deformation functor DefM as a replacement for the complete local ring A^m. We recall the construction of the commutative scheme simp(A), with points in bijective correspondence with the simple A-modules of nite dimension over k, and with complete local ring at a point M isomorphic to the formal moduli of the corresponding simple module M. The scheme simp(A) has good properties, in particular when there are no in nitesimal relations between di erent points, i.e. when Ext1 A(M;M0) = 0 for all pairs of non-isomorphic simple A-modules M;M0. It does not , however, characterize A. We use noncommutative deformation theory to de ne localizations, in general, and we nd a presheaf O, of noncommutative algebras, de ned on the Jacobson topology of simp(A) which re nes the commutative scheme, simp(A), by accounting for the in nitesimal relations in simp(A). We consider the quantum plane, given by A = khx; yi=(xy 􀀀qyx), as an example. This is an Artin-Schelter algebra of dimension two.

• Grønneberg, Steffen & Hjort, Nils Lid (2011)
  On the errors committed by sequences of estimator functionals

  Mathematical Methods of Statistics, 20(4) , s. 327-346. Doi: https://doi.org/10.3103/S106653071104003X

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  Consider a sequence of estimators ˆ n which converges almost surely to 0 as the sample size n tends to infinity. Under weak smoothness conditions, we identify the asymptotic limit of the last time ˆ n is further than " away from 0 when " → 0+. These limits lead to the construction of sequentially fixed width confidence regions for which we find analytic approximations. The smoothness conditions we impose is that ˆ n is to be close to a Hadamard-differentiable functional of the empirical distribution, an assumption valid for a large class of widely used statistical estimators. Similar results were derived in Hjort and Fenstad (1992, Annals of Statistics) for the case of Euclidean parameter spaces; part of the present contribution is to lift these results to situations involving parameter functionals. The apparatus we develop is also used to derive appropriate limit distributions of other quantities related to the far tail of an almost surely convergent sequence of estimators, like the number of times the estimator is more than " away from its target. We illustrate our results by giving a new sequential simultaneous confidence set for the cumulative hazard function based on the Nelson–Aalen estimator and investigate a problem in stochastic programming related to computational complexity

• Witte, Kristof De & Geys, Benny (2011)
  Evaluating efficient public good provision: Theory and evidence from a generalised conditional efficiency model for public libraries

  Journal of Urban Economics, 69(3) , s. 319-327. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2010.12.002

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  Provision of most public goods (e.g., health care, libraries, education, police, fire protection, utilities) can be characterized by a two-stage production process. In the first-stage, basic inputs (e.g., labor and capital) are used to generate service potential (e.g., opening hours, materials), which is then, in the second-stage, transformed into observed outputs (e.g., school outcomes, library circulation, crimes solved). As final outputs are also affected by demand-side factors, conflating both production stages likely leads to biased inferences about public productive (in)efficiency and its determinants. Hence, this paper uses a specially tailored, fully non-parametric efficiency model allowing for both outlying observations and heterogeneity to analyse efficient public good provision in stage one only. We thereby employ a dataset comprising all 290 Flemish public libraries. Our findings suggest that ideological stance of the local government, wealth and density of the local population and source of library funding (i.e., local funding versus intergovernmental transfers) strongly affect library productive efficiency.

• Lofquist, Eric Arne; Greve, Arent & Olsson, Ulf H. (2011)
  Modeling attitudes and perceptions as predictors for changing safety margins during organizational change

  Safety Science, 49(3) , s. 531-541. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2010.11.007

• Cools, Sara; Fiva, Jon H. & Kirkebøen, Lars Johannessen (2011)
  Pappaperm

  [Professional Article]. Samfunnsøkonomen, 125(9) , s. 21-23.

• Jacobsen, Karin Johanne; Eika, Kari, Helland, Leif, Lind, Jo Thori & Nyborg, Karine (2011)
  Are nurses more altruistic than real estate brokers?

  Journal of Economic Psychology, 32(5) , s. 818-831. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2011.07.003

• Dalen, Dag Morten; Hoel, Michael Olaf & Strøm, Steinar (2011)
  Markedsmakt og innovasjon på norsk sokkel

  Samfunnsøkonomen, 65(3) , s. 40-45.

• Dalen, Dag Morten; Furu, Kari, Locatelli, Marilena & Strøm, Steinar (2011)
  Generic substitution: micro evidence from register data in Norway

  European Journal of Health Economics, 12(1) , s. 49-59. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10198-010-0226-6

• Grytten, Jostein Ivar; Skau, Irene & Sørensen, Rune Jørgen (2011)
  Do expert patients get better treatment than others? Agency discrimination and statistical discrimination in obstetrics

  Journal of Health Economics, 30(1) , s. 163-180. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2010.10.004

  Vis sammendrag

  We address models that can explain why expert patients (obstetricians, midwives and doctors) are treated better than non-experts (mainly non-medical training). Models of statistical discrimination show that benevolent doctors treat expert patients better, since experts are better at communicating with the doctor. Agency theory suggests that doctors have an incentive to limit hospital costs by distorting information to non-expert patients, but not to expert patients. The hypotheses were tested on a large set of data, which contained information about the highest education of the parents, and detailed medical information about all births in Norway during the period 1967 to 2005 (Medical Birth Registry). The empirical analyses show that expert parents have a higher rate of Caesarean section than non-expert parents. The educational disparities were considerable 40 years ago, but have become markedly less over time. The analyses provide support for statistical discrimination theory, though agency theory cannot be totally excluded.

• Grytten, Jostein Ivar; Monkerud, Lars Christian, Hagen, Terje P., Sørensen, Rune Jørgen, Eskild, Anne & Skau, Irene (2011)
  The impact of hospital revenue on the increase in Caesarean sections in Norway. A panel data analysis of hospitals 1976-2005

  BMC Health Services Research, 11 Doi: https://doi.org/10.1186/1472-6963-11-267

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2011)
  Kunstig vennskap mellom USA og Kina?

  e24 (internett),

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2011)
  Realrenten på vei opp?

  e24 (internett),

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2011)
  Velferdsstaten skaper dårlige vaner

  e24 (internett),

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2011)
  Late ungdommer

  e24 (internett),

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2010)
  Kina - før, under og etter finanskrisen

  Magma forskning og viten, 13(3) , s. 43-52.

• Moen, Espen R. & Riis, Christian (2010)
  Policy Reversal

  The American Economic Review, 100(3) , s. 1261-1268. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.100.3.1261

• Røed-Larsen, Erling (2010)
  What May Eventually Limit House Prices? Evidence from Engel Elasticities and Budget Shares on Housing

  Housing, Theory and Society, 27(1) , s. 95-108.

• Sørensen, Rune Jørgen (2010)
  Ustyrlige statsselskaper? En oversikt over faglitteraturen

  Beta – Scandinavian Journal of Business Research, (1) , s. 38-58.

• Bjørnland, Hilde C; Gerdrup, Karsten, Jore, Anne Sofie, Smith, Christie & Thorsrud, Leif Anders (2010)
  Does forecast combination improve Norges Bank inflation forecasts?

  [Report Research]. Handelshøyskolen BI

  Vis sammendrag

  We develop a system that provides model-based forecasts for inflation in Norway. We recursively evaluate quasi out-of-sample forecasts from a large suite of models from 1999 to 2009. The performance of the models are then used to derive quasi real time weights that are used to combine the forecasts. Our results indicate that a combination forecast improves upon the point forecasts from individual models. Furthermore, a combination forecast out-performs Norges Bank's own point forecast for inflation. The beneficial results are obtained using a trimmed weighted average. Some degree of trimming is required for the combination forecasts to out-perform the judgmental forecasts from the policymaker.

• Bjørnland, Hilde C; Clarida, Richard, Holvik, Elisabeth & Steigum, Erling (2010)
  Norges Bank Watch 2010 An Independent Evaluation of Monetary Policy in Norway

  [Report Research]. Handelshøyskolen BI

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2010)
  Hvor er Keynes?

  [Professional Article]. Samfunnsøkonomen, (8) , s. 39-40.

• Dalen, Dag Morten & Moen, Espen R (2010)
  Borgerlønn:en samfunnsøkonomisk analyse

  [Report Research]. Handelshøyskolen BI

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2010)
  FORTELLINGER OM SAMFUNNET

  [Report Research]. Handelshøyskolen BI

  Vis sammendrag

  Dette arbeidsnotatet er en samling av professor Arne Jon Isachsens "Månedsbrevet" for de første seks månedene i 2010. Samlingen består av følgende artikler: 1) På tide med en ny revolusjon?; 2) Hva er problemet med Hellas?; 3) For få konkurser?; 4) Global rebalansering; 5) Hva nå Hellas?; 6) Gullivers reiser; 7) Samfunnsvitenskap - eller fortellinger om samfunnet?

• Steigum, Erling; Bjørnland, Hilde C, Clarida, Richard & Holvik, Elisabeth (2010)
  An independent evaluation of monetary policy in Norway. Norges Bank Watch Report Series No. 11

  [Report Research]. Handelshøyskolen BI

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2010)
  FINANSKRISEN – KONSEKVENSER FOR USA

  [Report Research]. Handelshøyskolen BI

  Vis sammendrag

  I sine siste år som president lyktes Bill Clinton i samarbeid med Kongressen å opparbeide pene overskudd i statsfinansene. Prognosene da Bush overtok, pekte i retning av en gjeldfri amerikansk stat i god tid før inneværende tiår var ute. En gjeldfri og etter hvert formuende stat ville gitt økt handlingsrom for myndighetene. Men slik skulle det ikke gå.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2010)
  KINAS MAKT

  [Report Research]. Handelshøyskolen BI

• Eriksen, Eivind (2010)
  The Weyl algebra is coherent

  [Report Research]. Cornell University

• Riis, Christian & Moen, Espen R (2010)
  Efficient Exclusion

  [Report Research]. Handelshøyskolen BI

  Vis sammendrag

  In their influential paper, Aghion and Bolton (1987) argue that a buyer and a seller may agree on high liquidation damages in order to extract rents from future suppliers. As this may distort future trade, it may be socially wasteful. We argue that Aghion and Bolton's analysis of entry is ncomplete in some respects, as there is only one potential entrant in their model. We construct a model with many potential entrants. Entry is costly, so entering suppliers have to earn a quasi-rent in order to recoup their entry costs. Reducing the entrants' profits by the help of a breach penalty reduces the probability of entry, and this reduces the attractiveness of breach penalties for the contracting parties. We show that the initial buyer and seller only have incentives to include a positive breach penalty if there is excessive entry without it, in which case the breach penalty is welfare improving.

• Dalen, Dag Morten & Riis, Christian (2010)
  Konkurranse for innovasjon

  [Report Research]. Handelshøyskolen BI

  Vis sammendrag

  Konkurransepolitikkens målsetning er å legge til rette for velfungerende konkurranse i markedene for på den måten å bidra til effektiv bruk av samfunnets ressurser. Samfunnsøkonomisk effektivitet vedrører optimal utnyttelse av samfunnets ressurser (som arbeidskraft, kapital, naturressurser), både i betydningen av optimal utnyttelse av ressursene over tid og i betydningen av optimal fordeling av ressurser på ulike anvendelser på et tidspunkt. Effektiv bruk av samfunnets ressurser krever derfor at samfunnet investerer tilstrekkelig i forskning og utvikling. Ofte skilles det mellom begrepene ”statisk effektivitet” og ”dynamisk effektivitet”. Dette er etter vår vurdering et uheldig utgangspunkt for en analyse av konkurransepolitikken. Det eksisterer bare en versjon av begrepet samfunnsøkonomiske effektivitet, og loven fastslår at konkurranse skal fremme samfunnsøkonomisk effektivitet. Hvis konkurransen fremmes på en måte som er til skade for nyskapingen i økonomien, vil det være i strid med konkurranselovens formål.

• Sørensen, Rune Jørgen (2010)
  Aging reduces support for the welfare state. A cross-national analysis on the impact of aging on public spending preferences, 1985-2006

  [Report Research]. Handelshøyskolen BI

• Sørensen, Rune Jørgen & Rattsø, J. (2010)
  Statlige selskaper med sektorpolitiske mål. En evaluering av statlig styring

  [Report Research]. Administrasjonsdepartementet

• Bjørnland, Hilde C & Halvorsen, Jørn Inge (2010)
  How does monetary policy respondto exchange rate movements? New international evidence

  [Report Research]. Handelshøyskolen BI

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2010)
  Finanskrisen - konsekvenser for USA

  Samfunnsøkonomen, 64(4) , s. 24-36.

• Garibaldi, Pietro & Moen, Espen R. (2010)
  Job-to-Job Movements in a Simple Search Model

  The American Economic Review, 100(2) , s. 343-347.

• Moen, Espen R & Rosén, Åsa (2010)
  Incentives in Competitive Search Equilibrium

  [Report Research]. Handelshøyskolen BI

• Dalen, Dag Morten; Moen, Espen R & Riis, Christian (2010)
  Regulering av fjernvarme

  [Report Research]. Handelshøyskolen BI

  Vis sammendrag

  I denne rapporten vurderer vi reguleringer av fjernvarmesektoren i Norge. Utgangspunktet for analysen er hensynet til en samfunnsøkonomisk effektiv energiforsyning. Prinsippene for effektive investeringer i energiinfrastruktur identifiseres, og sentralt i rapporten står vurderinger av hvilke implikasjoner disse prinsippene har for en hensiktsmessig regulering av varmesektoren. Utredningen er utført på oppdrag for Olje- og energidepartementet. Prosjektleder har vært professor Dag Morten Dalen. I prosjektperioden har vi hatt nyttige samtaler med representanter for Norsk Fjernvarme, NoBio, NVE og Sintef Energi. Konklusjonene i rapporten er forfatternes egne, og reflekterer ikke nødvendigvis synspunkter som støttes av disse. I tillegg har utredningen trukket på innsikt fra prosjektet ”Regulering av parallell infrastrukturer: El, gass og fjernvarme” utført av ECON, Handelshøyskolen BI og Møreforskning for EBL Kompetanse.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2010)
  OM SPEKULASJON I VALUTAMARKEDET

  [Report Research]. Handelshøyskolen BI

  Vis sammendrag

  Investeringer i aksjer og obligasjoner kan påregnes å gi positiv avkastning over tid. Aksjekurser stiger, og tidvis betales det utbytte. Obligasjoner gir jevnlige renteutbetalinger. Penger satt av for spekulasjon i terminmarkedet for valuta er et null-sum spill for alle aktørene sett under ett. I tillegg kommer risiko for store tap, særlig om man har en eksponering langt utover det beløpet man selv setter inn (gearing). Det teoretiske grunnlaget for carry trade – låne penger i en valuta der renten er lav og plassere midlene i en valuta der renten er høy – glimrer med sitt fravær. I perioder har det likevel vært mulig å tjene penger på slik handel. For aktører som vil spekulere i valutamarkedet, er kjøp av valutaopsjoner et alternativ. Her er tapet begrenset til premien man betaler ved inngåelse av kontrakten. Ved terminforretninger som er skikkelig gearet, er mulighetene for tap nærmest ubegrenset.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2010)
  HVA KINA VIL

  [Report Research]. Handelshøyskolen BI

  Vis sammendrag

  Kina vil gjenvinne sin rettmessige plass i det globale bildet, med tilhørende respekt fra andre land. Videre tar Kina mål av seg til å bli et middels velstående land der godene er jevnere fordelt. Fortsatt økonomisk vekst er en forutsetning for at disse to målene kan la seg innfri. Det hele under bibetingelsen at Partiet beholder sitt monopol på makten.

• Sucarrat, Genaro (2010)
  Econometric Reduction Theory and Philosophy

  Journal of Economic Methodology, 17(1) , s. 53-75.

• Steigum, Erling (2010)
  Norsk økonomi etter 1980: fra krise til suksess

  [Professional Article]. Praktisk Økonomi & Finans, 26(3) , s. 11-17.

• Riis, Christian (2010)
  Efficient Contests

  Journal of Economics and Management Strategy, 19(3) , s. 643-665.

• Bauwens, Luc & Sucarrat, Genaro (2010)
  General-to-specific modelling of exchange rate volatility: A forecast evaluation

  International Journal of Forecasting, 26(4) , s. 885-907.

• Riis, Christian & Moen, Espen R. (2010)
  Moderne mikroøkonomi - kompendieutgave

  [Textbook]. Gyldendal Akademisk

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2010)
  Korrupsjon i Kina - kommet for å bli?

  [Professional Article]. Nytt Norsk Tidsskrift (NNT), (4) , s. 437-442.

• Røed-Larsen, Erling; Beatty, Timothy K.M. & Sommervoll, Dag Einar (2010)
  Using House Prices to Compute the Price of Housing in the CPI

  Economics Letters, 106(3) , s. 238-240.

• Moen, Espen R (2010)
  Worker Replacement

  [Report Research]. National Bureau of Economic Research

• Sørensen, Rune Jørgen (2010)
  A swing-voter modell of age-related distribution. Social security and health care spending 1980-2003

  [Report Research]. Handelshøyskolen BI

• Maurseth, Per Botolf (2010)
  Regional Convergence and Divergence in Europe. Patterns and regularities

  [Report Research]. Micro-DYN

• Geys, Benny & Konrad, Kai A. (2010)
  Federalism and optimal allocation across levels of governance

  Handbook on Multi-Level Governance, , s. 32-46.

• Sucarrat, Genaro (2010)
  Automated Model Selection in Finance: General-to-Specific Modelling of the Mean, Variance and Density

  [Report Research]. Handelshøyskolen BI

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2010)
  KORRUPSJON I KINA – KOMMET FOR Å BLI?

  [Report Research]. Handelshøyskolen BI

  Vis sammendrag

  I Kina gikk overgang fra plan til marked sammen med langt større frihet for den enkelte. Nye muligheter åpner seg for økonomisk virksomhet. Både lovlig og ulovlig. Den sammenfallende veksten i produksjon og i korrupsjon har som felles årsak dyptgripende endringer i det kinesiske samfunn. En parallell vekst i produksjon og i korrupsjon finner sted uten at disse to fenomener har så mye med hverandre å gjøre. Skal man få bukt med fenomenet korrupsjon, må Kina tillate at lovverket brukes systematisk og konsistent. Det vil ikke Partiet vite noe av. Den leninistiske modellen der all makt er samlet på Partiets hånd har utbredt korrupsjon som nødvendig konsekvens. Man følger rådet som veteranen Chen Yu fra Maos dager gav: ”Fight corruption too little and destroy the country; fight it too much and destroy the Party.”

• Steigum, Erling (2010)
  NORSK ØKONOMI ETTER 1980 – FRA KRISE TIL SUKSESS

  [Report Research]. Handelshøyskolen BI

  Vis sammendrag

  Norsk økonomi anno 2010 fremstår som en stor suksess. Det er bare Luxemburg som nå har en høyere kjøpekraftskorrigert brutto nasjonalinntekt per innbygger enn Norge blant OECDlandene. Det er illustrerende at norsk økonomi er blitt påført betydelig mindre realøkonomisk tap av den internasjonale finanskrisen i 2008-2009 enn andre OECD-land. Det er usannsynlig at Norges suksess utelukkende skyldes flaks. Vi skal ikke gå lenger tilbake enn på 1980-tallet og frem til begynnelsen av 1990-tallet da norsk økonomi hadde store problemer, både i form av lav produktivitetsvekst, høy inflasjon og til slutt mye arbeidsledighet. I denne artikkelen skal vi se nærmere på utviklingen i norsk økonomi og makroøkonomisk politikk etter 1980, samt drøfte mulige årsaker til suksessen.

• Greaker, Mads & Heggedal, Tom-Reiel (2010)
  Lock-In and the Transition to Hydrogen Cars: Should Governments Intervene?

  The B.E. Journals in Economic Analysis & Policy, 10(1)

• Bjørnland, Hilde C & Jacobsen, Dag Henning (2010)
  The role of house prices in the monetary policy transmission mechanism in small open economies

  Journal of Financial Stability, 6(4) , s. 218-229. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfs.2010.02.001

• Gripsrud, Geir; Nes, Erik B. & Olsson, Ulf Henning (2010)
  Effects of Hosting a Mega-Sport Event on Country Image

  Event Management, 14, s. 193-204.

• Solberg, Carl Arthur & Olsson, Ulf H. (2010)
  Management orientation and export performance: the case of Norwegian ICT companies

  Baltic Journal of Management, 5(1) , s. 28-50. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1108/17465261011016540

• Moen, Espen R; Riis, Christian & Fjeldstad, Øystein D. (2010)
  Competition with local network externalities

  [Report Research]. Handelshøyskolen BI

  Vis sammendrag

  Local network externalities are present when the utility of buying from a firm not only depends on the number of other customers (global network externalities), but also on their identity and / or characteristics. We explore the consequences of local network externalities within a framework where two firms compete offering differentiated products. We first show that local network externalities, in contrast to global network externalities, don't necessarily sharpen competition. Then we show that the equilibrium allocation is inefficient, in the sense that the allocation of consumers on firms does not maximize social surplus. Finally we show that local network externalities create a difference between the marginal and the average consumer, which gives rise to inefficiently high usage prices and too high level of compatibility between the networks.

• Wallentin, Fan Yang; Jøreskog, Karl Gustaf & Luo, Hao (2010)
  Confirmatory Factor Analysis of Ordinal Variables With Misspecified Models

  Structural Equation Modeling, 17(3) , s. 392-423.

• Gripsrud, Geir; Olsson, Ulf Henning & Silkoset, Ragnhild (2010)
  Metode og dataanalyse. Beslutningsstøtte for bedrifter ved bruk av JMP

  [Textbook]. Cappelen Damm Høyskoleforlaget

• Menzio, Guido & Moen, Espen R. (2010)
  Worker replacement

  Journal of Monetary Economics, 57(6) , s. 623-636. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2010.05.015

• Eriksen, Eivind & Gustavsen, Trond Stølen (2010)
  Equivariant Lie-Rinehart cohomology

  Proceedings of the Estonian Academy of Sciences : Physics, Mathematics, 59(4) , s. 294-300. Doi: https://doi.org/10.3176/proc.2010.4.07

  Vis sammendrag

  In this paper we study Lie-Rinehart cohomology for quotients of singularities by finite groups, and interpret these cohomology groups in terms of integrable connection on modules.

• Andersen, Jørgen Juel; Fiva, Jon H. & Natvik, Gisle James (2010)
  Voting when the Stakes are High

  [Report Research]. Norges Bank

  Vis sammendrag

  Rational choice theories of electoral participation stress that an individual's decision to vote depends on her expected net benefit from doing so. If this instrumental motive is relevant, then turnout should be higher in elections where more is at stake. We test this prediction, by studying how turnout is affected by exogenous variation in governments' financial flexibility to provide pork for their voters. By utilizing simultaneous elections for different offices, we identify a positive effect of election stakes on turnout.

• Bø, Erlend Eide; Johannessen, Randi & Larsen, Erling Røed (2010)
  Observerte leieinntekter for næringseiendom: Betydningen av eiendommens hedoniske attributter og geografiske plassering. (Rev.ed.)

  [Report Research]. Statistisk sentralbyrå (SSB)

  Vis sammendrag

  Vi studerer et datasett som inneholder observasjoner om leieinntekter fra næringseiendom og eiendommenes attributter og plassering til å estimere en sammenheng mellom observert leie og ulike kjennetegns innvirkning på leien. Datasettet er basert på skjemarapporterte leier til Skattedirektoratet, og en grovsortering ga 32 059 observasjoner å analysere, mens en finsortering (med trunkering på ulike variablers 2. og 98. prosentil) ga 28 473 observasjoner. Resultatene viser at regresjon gir relativt god forklaringskraft med R2 i overkant av 0,30 og med statistisk signifikante koeffisientestimater og økonomisk plausible størrelser og fortegn. Kvadratmeterleien avtar med størrelse, slik at det foreligger en rabatt på leieareal, men rabatteringens størrelse avtar med areal. Sentrale eiendommer er dyrere enn ikke-sentrale. Kontor- og forretningsbygg er dyrere enn industribygg. Større byer gir høyere leier enn mindre byer.

• Bjertnæs, Geir Haakon Malterud; Heggedal, Tom-Reiel & Jacobsen, Karl (2010)
  Knowledge spillovers and the timing of environmental R&D subsidies

  [Professional Article]. SSB - Discussion papers,

• Helland, Leif & Hovi, Jon (2010)
  Non-instrumental behavior in an environmental public goods game

  Homo Oeconomicus (HOEC), 27(3) , s. 241-262.

  Vis sammendrag

  This paper reports a puzzling result from an experiment based on an indefinitely repeated N -player Prisoners’ Dilemma game carried out in a PC lab. The experiment used real monetary payoffs, and was conducted in the context of international cooperation to curb climate change. It was puzzling that after the experiment, a large majority of subjects reported they were at least partially motivated out of concern for the climate; however, nothing they did in the experiment could possibly have had an impact on the climate. We show that subjects acting out of concern for the climate incurred a real cost in monetary terms, and argue that many subjects’ behavior in the experiment deviated quite fundamentally from instrumental rationality. Although much recent research on public goods provision questions the traditional assumption that players are purely self-regarding, the assumption of instrumental rationality is typically preserved. The results reported in this paper go some way towards challenging the validity of this assumption.

• Berglann, Helge; Moen, Espen R, Røed, Knut & Skogstrøm, Jens Fredrik Baumgarten (2010)
  Entrepreneurship: Origins and Returns

  [Report Research]. Handelshøyskolen BI

  Vis sammendrag

  We examine the origins and outcome of entrepreneurship on the basis of exceptionally comprehensive Norwegian matched worker-firm-owner data. In contrast to most existing studies, our notion of entrepreneurship not only comprises self-employment, but also employment in partly self-owned limited liability firms. Based on this extended entrepreneurship concept, we find that entrepreneurship tends to be profitable. It also raises income uncertainty, but the most successful quartile gains much more than the least successful quartile loses. Key determinants of the decision to become an entrepreneur are occupational qualifications, family resources, gender, and work environments. Individual unemployment encourages, while aggregate unemployment discourages entrepreneurship.

• Røed-Larsen, Erling & Sommervoll, Dag Einar (2009)
  Impact on Rent from Tenant and Landlord Characteristics and Interaction

  Regional Science and Urban Economics, 39, s. 316-322.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2009)
  Globalisering og velferdsstatens fremtid

  Internasjonal Politikk, (3) , s. 523-525.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2009)
  Kan Vesten redde Afrika?

  [Professional Article]. Sparebankbladet, (9)

• Bergman, Michael; Juel, Steinar & Steigum, Erling (2009)
  Norges Bank Watch 2009 Monetary Policy and the Financial Turmoil

  [Report Research]. Handelshøyskolen BI

• Steigum, Erling (2009)
  The boom and bust cycle in Norway

  Lars Jonung, Jaakko Kiander and Pentti Vartia (eds), The Great Financial Crisis in Finland and Sweden, , s. 202-244.

• Dalen, Dag Morten & Dijk, Theo H. van (2009)
  Imperfect enforcement of predatory pricing law

  [Report Research]. Handelshøyskolen BI

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2009)
  SCENER FRA EN FINANSKRISE

  [Report Research]. Handelshøyskolen BI

• Zagaglia, Paolo (2009)
  Fractional integration of inflation rates: a note

  Applied Economics Letters, 16(11) , s. 1103-1105. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/13504850701335384

• Helland, Leif (2009)
  Electoral agency in the lab: Learning to throw out the rascals

  [Report Research]. Handelshøyskolen BI

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2009)
  Hva er problemet?

  [Professional Article]. Sparebankbladet, (5)

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2009)
  En dag med China Daily

  [Professional Article]. Magma forskning og viten, (7) , s. 62-66.

• Hansen, Bjørn; Røhr, Helene Lie & Wasenden, Ole Christian (2009)
  Regulation of mobile termination rates - possible effects of a bill and Keep regime

  [Report Research]. Telenor, Handelshøyskolen BI

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2009)
  Går det alltid bedre med Coca-Cola?

  [Professional Article]. Sparebankbladet, (4)

• Røed-Larsen, Erling (2009)
  Using Inverted Engel Curves to Estimate Material Standard of Living in a Household

  Empirical Economics, 36, s. 109-132.

• Lauritzen, Pål (2009)
  Matematikk for økonomer. Oppgaver med løsninger

  Cappelen Damm Akademisk

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2009)
  Helsevesenet i USA - mulig å forandre?

  [Professional Article]. Sparebankbladet, (10)

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2009)
  Scener fra en finanskrise

  [Professional Article]. Sparebankbladet, (12)

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2009)
  Om finanskrisen

  [Report Research]. Nærings- og Handelsdepartementet

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2009)
  FINANSKRISEN – DEN MENNESKELIGE FAKTOR

  [Report Research]. Handelshøyskolen BI

  Vis sammendrag

  Den 15. september 2008 gikk den amerikanske investeringsbanken Lehman Brothers konkurs. Og verdens finansmarkeder gikk i stå. Hvordan kunne noe slikt skje? Overdrevne tro på markeders selvregulerende evne er en del av svaret. Reguleringer som ikke holder tritt med utviklingen. En annen del av svaret er omfordeling av risiko til folk som ikke evner å håndtere den. Bør prosedyrer for godkjenning etableres før man tillater nye finansielle instrumenter tatt i bruk, på linje med hva legemiddelindustrien er vant med?

• Isachsen, Arne Jon & Sand, Ole C (2009)
  CHINA'S REVIVAL

  [Report Research]. Handelshøyskolen BI

  Vis sammendrag

  The purpose of this paper is to reflect on China's unique economic experience over the last three decades. What lessons can be learned from China’s blend of visible central guidance at the macro level and fierce competition at the micro level?

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2009)
  Kan Vesten redde Afrika?

  [Professional Article]. Samtiden, (4) , s. 26-37.

• Sørensen, Rune Jørgen (2009)
  A swing-voter model of age-related distribution. Social security and health care spending 1980-2003

  [Report Research]. Handelshøyskolen BI

• Leitemo, Kai (2009)
  Noen betraktinger om finanspolitikken

  Samfunnsøkonomen, 8(63) , s. 18-19.

• Helland, Leif & Sørensen, Rune Jørgen (2009)
  Persistent rent extraction

  [Report Research]. Handelshøyskolen BI

• Røed-Larsen, Erling; Beatty, Timothy K.M. & Sommervoll, Dag Einar (2009)
  Driven to Drink? Sin Taxes near a Border

  Journal of Health Economics, 28(6) , s. 1175-1184.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2009)
  EN DAG MED CHINA DAILY

  [Report Research]. Handelshøyskolen BI

  Vis sammendrag

  Kina er et land som står midt oppe i store omstillinger, både i landet og i sin relasjon til andre land. Avisen China Daily er myndighetenes talerør, og blir dermed en god pekepinn på hva myndighetene i Kina ønsker å kommunisere om utviklingen i Midtens Rike. Artikkelen gjennomgår sentrale saker i en utgave fra mai 2009, og reflekterer over hvilke enorme utfordringer Kina står overfor de neste årene, med en sterkt aldrende befolkning, korrupsjon, skjev inntekstfordeling og en ny rolle som internasjonal stormakt.

• Sørensen, Rune Jørgen & Helland, Leif (2009)
  Persistent rent-taking when voters are fully informed

  [Report Research]. Handelshøyskolen BI

• Dalen, Dag Morten (2009)
  Sykehusenes legemiddelanbud. Konkurranse på hvilke vilkår?

  [Professional Article]. Samfunnsøkonomen, (8)

• Sucarrat, Genaro (2009)
  Forecast Evaluation of Explanatory Models of Financial Variability

  Economics, 3(8) , s. 1-33.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2009)
  Hva er så viktig med industrien?

  [Professional Article]. Sparebankbladet, (8)

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2009)
  EURO - begynnelsen på slutten?

  [Professional Article]. Sparebankbladet, (11)

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2009)
  KINA VISER MUSKLER

  [Report Research]. Handelshøyskolen BI

  Vis sammendrag

  Det egentlige, realøkonomiske tapet ved finanskrisen er ikke verdier som faller, men mennesker som står uten arbeid. Flate pyramider der alle får komme til med sitt, gir oss en fordel det gjelder å holde fast på. Handlingsregelen er en genistrek. Om staten er for ivrig og hjelper for mye og for snart, kan ansvaret smuldre hen. Kanskje vil krisen føre til en bedre balanse mellom krav og rettigheter? Og til en mer intelligent forskningspolitikk som innebærer at Norges forskningsråd legges ned.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2009)
  En dag med China Daily

  Magma forskning og viten, 12(7) , s. 62-66.

• Sucarrat, Genaro (2009)
  Econometric Reduction Theory and Philosophy

  [Popular Science Article]. Medium Econometrische Toepassingen, 17(2) , s. 20-24.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2009)
  Hva nå lille land?

  [Professional Article]. Sparebankbladet, (1)

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2009)
  Ny global finansiell arkitektur

  [Professional Article]. Sparebankbladet, (3)

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2009)
  Kan de som vil ha et mindre rettferdig samfunn, rekke opp hånden?

  [Professional Article]. Sparebankbladet, (2)

• Straume, Hans-Martin & Vårdal, Erling (2009)
  Finanskrisens innvirkning på valutamarkedene

  Samfunnsøkonomen, 63(4) , s. 60-68.

• Bjørnland, Hilde C (2009)
  Monetary policy and exchange rate overshooting: Dornbusch was right after all

  Journal of International Economics, 79(1) , s. 64-77. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2009.06.003

• Bjørnland, Hilde C & Leitemo, Kai (2009)
  Identifying the Interdependence between US Monetary Policy and the Stock Market

  Journal of Monetary Economics, 56(2) , s. 275-282. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2008.12.001

• Monkerud, Lars Christian; Helland, Leif & Løyning, G (2009)
  Parliamentarians and students in a lobbying experiment

  [Report Research]. Handelshøyskolen BI

• Bye, Brita; Heggedal, Tom-Reiel & Jacobsen, Karl (2009)
  Er særskilt støtte til "månelandingen" på Mongstad effektiv politikk?

  [Professional Article]. Økonomiske analyser, (6) , s. 42-48.

  Vis sammendrag

  Regjeringens ”månelandingsprosjekt” innebærer at norske myndigheter gir særskilt støtte til forskning og utvikling av teknologier for karbonfangst og -lagring. I denne artikkelen drøfter vi om en slik selektiv virkemiddelbruk er effektiv forsknings- og utviklingspolitikk. Imperfeksjoner knyttet til markedene for forskning og utvikling av nye teknologier kan variere mellom forskjellige teknologiområder, og dermed gi grunnlag for ulik virkemiddelbruk. Både modenheten til et teknologiområde og forventning om fremtidig prisutvikling for en teknologi kan påvirke de ufullkommenhetene som er til stede i markedene. Imidlertid er det usikkert om disse effektene tilsier at forskning på teknologier for karbonfangst og -lagring bør støttes mer enn forskning på andre teknologier. Resultater fra simuleringsmodeller av norsk økonomi tyder på at det ikke bør drives selektiv støtte til forskning på teknologier for karbonfangst og -lagring på bekostning av annen teknologiutvikling

• Bjørnland, Hilde C & Jacobsen, Dag Henning (2009)
  The role of house prices in the monetary policy transmission mechanism in small open economies

  [Report Research]. Norges Bank

  Vis sammendrag

  We analyse the role of house prices in the monetary policy transmission mechanism in Norway, Sweden and the UK using structural VARs. A solution is proposed to the endogeneity problem of identifying hocks to interest rates and house prices by using a combination of short-run and long-run (neutrality) restrictions. By allowing the interest rate and house prices to react simultaneously to news, we find the role of house prices in the monetary transmission mechanism to increase considerably. In particular, house prices react immediately and strongly to a monetary policy shock. Furthermore, the fall in house prices seem to enhance the negative response in output and consumer price inflation that has traditionally been found in the conventional literature. Moreover, we find that the interest rate respond systematically to a change in house prices.

• Helland, Leif; Hovi, Jon & Monkerud, Lars Christian (2009)
  Can exit prizes induce lame ducks to shirk less? Experimental evidence

  [Report Research]. Handelshøyskolen BI

• Bye, Brita; Heggedal, Tom-Reiel & Fæhn, Taran (2009)
  Teknologiutvikling, klima og virkemiddelbruk

  [Popular Science Article]. Rapporter - Statistics Norway,

• Bye, Brita; Fæhn, Taran & Heggedal, Tom-Reiel (2009)
  Er teknologipolitikk et egnet virkemiddel i den norske klimapolitikken?

  [Popular Science Article]. Samfunnsøkonomen,

• Rattsø, Jørn & Sørensen, Rune Jørgen (2009)
  Gråhåret makt og kommunale budsjetter : de eldre må stole på seg selv

  Det nære demokratiet : lokalvalg og lokal deltakelse, , s. 351-364.

• Dennis, Richard; Leitemo, Kai & Söderstrom, Ulf (2009)
  Methods for robust control

  Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 33(8) , s. 1604-1616. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2009.02.011

• Heggedal, Tom-Reiel; Bye, Brita & Fæhn, Taran (2009)
  Welfare and growth impacts of innovation policies in a small, open economy: An applied general equilibrium analysis

  Economic Modelling, 26, s. 1075-1088.

• Dalen, Dag Morten; Sorisio, Enrico & Strøm, S. (2009)
  Choosing among Competing Blockbusters: Does the Identity of the Third‐party Payer Matter for Prescribing Doctors?

  [Report Research]. Department of Economics. University of Oslo

• Monkerud, Lars Christian; Saglie, Jo & Vabo, Signy Irene (2009)
  Representantroller i et reformert lokaldemokrati

  Det nære demokratiet : lokalvalg og lokal deltakelse, , s. 293-321.

• Olsen, Øystein; Bolland, Olav, Christiansen, Bente, Nyborg, Karine, Hoel, Michael Olaf & Maurseth, Per Botolf (2009)
  Globale miljøutfordringer – norsk politikk: Hvordan bærekraftig utvikling og klima bedre kan ivaretas i offentlige beslutningsprosesser.

  [Report Research]. Finansdepartementet

  Vis sammendrag

  Hvordan bærekraftig utvikling og klima bedre kan ivaretas i offentlige beslutningsprosesser. Utredning fra utvalg oppnevnt ved kongelig resolusjon 30. mai 2008. Avgitt til Finansdepartementet 22. juni 2009.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2008)
  BOLIG- OG FINANSKRISEN I AMERIKA

  [Report Research]. Handelshøyskolen BI

  Vis sammendrag

  Notatet ser nærmere på følgende temaer: • Opptakten til krisen • Fra boligkrise til finanskrise • Greenspan gått ut på dato? • Finanspolitikken under Bush heller ikke særlig vellykket • Nye regler og reguleringer for finansmarkedene • Hvordan løse den akutte krisen i det amerikanske boligmarkedet?

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2008)
  Kommer Amerika tilbake?

  [Professional Article]. Sparebankbladet, (10)

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2008)
  Krise i Amerika?

  [Professional Article]. Sparebankbladet, (5)

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2008)
  Kina i en urolig verden

  [Professional Article]. Sparebankbladet, (12)

• Helland, Leif (2008)
  Political Heterogeneity, Electoral Surprise and the Growth in Unemployment: The Norwegian Partisan Cycle

  [Report Research]. Handelshøyskolen BI

• Leitemo, Kai & Bache, Ida Wolden (2008)
  The Price Puzzle: Mixing the Temporary and Permanent Monetary Policy Shocks

  [Report Research]. Handelshøyskolen BI

  Vis sammendrag

  We argue that the correct identification of monetary policy shocks in a vector autoregression requires that the identification scheme distinguishes between permanent and transitory monetary policy shocks. The permanent shocks reflect changes in the inflation target while the transitory shocks represent temporary deviations from the interest rate reaction function. Whereas both shocks may raise the nominal interest rate on impact, the inflation and output responses of the two shocks are different. We show, using a simple simulation experiment, that a failure to distinguish between the two types of shocks can result in a ”price puzzle”.

• Leitemo, Kai & Kilponen, Juha (2008)
  Discretion and the transmission lags of monetary policy

  [Report Research]. Handelshøyskolen BI, Bank of Finland

• Steigum, Erling (2008)
  Befolkningsaldring, pensjonsreformer og realøkonomi

  Samfunnsøkonomen, 62(6/7 - Samfunnsøkonom) , s. 29-40.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2008)
  Euro for Norge?

  [Report Research]. Handelshøyskolen BI

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2008)
  Decoupling: Kina som drivkraft i verdensøkonomien

  [Professional Article]. Orkla Finans Equity, (1)

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2008)
  OM FINANSKRISEN I USA

  [Report Research]. Handelshøyskolen BI

  Vis sammendrag

  Arbeidsnotatet søker å gi et bilde av hva som har skjedd i det amerikanske finansmarkedet siden krisen startet tidlig i august 2007.

• Helland, Leif & Sørensen, Rune Jørgen (2008)
  The Agency Costs of Partisan Dominance and Electoral Uncertainty

  [Report Research]. Handelshøyskolen BI

• Sørensen, Rune Jørgen & Helland, Leif (2008)
  Hvorfor overlever politisk korrupsjon i representative demokratier?

  [Report Research]. Handelshøyskolen BI

• Tveit, Anders (2008)
  Practice makes perfect. Role-play - because our students deserve it!

  Kendall, Michael; Samways, Brian (Eds.), Learning to Live in the Knowledge Society. IFIP 20th World Computer Congress, IFIP TC 3 ED-L2L Conference, , s. 127-134.

• Moen, Espen R & Menzio, Guido (2008)
  Worker Replacement

  [Report Research]. CEPR

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2008)
  KJØP OG SALG AV RISIKO

  [Report Research]. Handelshøyskolen BI

  Vis sammendrag

  Aarbeidsnotatet er satt sammen av Månedsbrevet til Arne Jon Isachsen for januar-juni 2008. Månedsbrevet består av 6 ulike artikler.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2008)
  Finanskrisen - om å mene og å forstå

  [Professional Article]. Sparebankbladet, (11)

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2008)
  KOMMER AMERIKA TILBAKE?

  [Report Research]. Handelshøyskolen BI

  Vis sammendrag

  Arbeidsnotatet er satt sammen av Månedsbrevet til Arne Jon Isachsen for august-desember 2008. Månedsbrevet består av 6 ulike artikler.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2008)
  Uro

  [Professional Article]. Sparebankbladet, (1)

• Bjørnland, Hilde C & Leitemo, Kai (2008)
  Identifying the Interdependence between US Monetary Policy and the Stock Market

  [Report Research]. Handelshøyskolen BI

  Vis sammendrag

  We estimate the interdependence between US monetary policy and the S&P 500 using structural VAR methodology. A solution is proposed to the simultaneity problem of identifying monetary and stock price shocks by using a combination of short-run and long-run restrictions that maintains the qualitative properties of a monetary policy shock found in the established literature (Christiano et al., 1999). We find great interdependence between interest rate setting and real stock prices. Real stock prices immediately fall by 7-9 percent due to a monetary policy shock that raises the federal funds rate by 100 basis points. A stock price shock increasing real stock prices by one percent leads to an increase in the interest rate of close to 4 basis points.

• Bjørnland, Hilde C (2008)
  Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Interactions in a Small Open Economy

  The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 110(1) , s. 197-221. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9442.2008.00532.x

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2008)
  Bolig- og finanskrisen i Amerika

  Magma forskning og viten, 11(3) , s. 25-36.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2008)
  Kjøp og salg av risiko

  [Professional Article]. Sparebankbladet, (4)

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2008)
  Hvorfor sparer kineserne så mye?

  [Professional Article]. Sparebankbladet, (6/7)

• Steigum, Erling (2008)
  BEFOLKNINGSALDRING, PENSJONSREFORMER OG REALØKONOMI

  [Report Research]. Handelshøyskolen BI

  Vis sammendrag

  I de siste 15−20 årene har en rekke industriland reformert sine pensjonssystemer. En viktig årsak til denne bølgen av pensjonsreformer er at andelen pensjonister i befolkningen er på vei opp, og forventes å øke ytterligere i fremtiden. Også den fallende fruktbarheten fra 1970-årene og utover, samt en tendens til nedgang i den yrkesaktive perioden av livsløpet bidrar til at antallet pensjonister per arbeider vil øke betydelig i fremtiden. Det gis en kort oversikt over pensjonsreformer i Europa etter 1990. Notatet går nærmere inn på den norske pensjonsreformen.

• Bjørnland, Hilde C & Halvorsen, Jørn Inge (2008)
  How does monetary policy respond to exchange rate movements? New international evidence

  [Report Research]. Handelshøyskolen BI

  Vis sammendrag

  This paper analyzes how monetary policy responds to exchange rate movements in open economies, paying particular attention to the two-way interaction between monetary policy and exchange rate movements. We address this issue using a structural VAR model that is identified using a combination of sign and short-term (zero) restrictions. Our suggested identification scheme allows for a simultaneous reaction between the variables that are observed to respond intraday to news (the interest rate and the exchange rate), but maintains the recursive order for the traditional macroeconomic variables (GDP and inflation). Doing so, we find strong interaction between monetary policy and exchange rate variation. Our results suggest more theory consistency in the monetary policy responses than what has previously been reported in the literature.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2008)
  Jarle Bergo: A professional monetary policymaker steps down

  Norges Bank Economic Bulletin, (1) , s. 4-9.

• Leitemo, Kai (2008)
  Inflation-Targeting Rules: History-Dependent or Forward-Looking?

  Economics Letters, 100(2) , s. 267-70.

• Røed-Larsen, Erling & Weum, Steffen (2008)
  Testing the Efficiency of the Norwegian Housing Market

  Journal of Urban Economics, 64, s. 510-517.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2008)
  Kan vi lære noe av Amerika?

  [Professional Article]. Sparebankbladet, (3)

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2008)
  Bolig- og finanskrisen i Amerika

  [Professional Article]. Magma forskning og viten, (3)

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2008)
  Helhetstenkning i klimapolitikken

  [Professional Article]. Sparebankbladet, (9)

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2008)
  Makt

  [Professional Article]. Sparebankbladet, (8)

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2008)
  Davos

  [Professional Article]. Sparebankbladet, (2)

• Bjørnland, Hilde C (2008)
  Oil price shocks and stock market booms in an oil exporting country

  [Report Research]. Handelshøyskolen BI

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2008)
  Demokrati på kinesisk

  Internasjonal Politikk, 66(4) , s. 633-644.

• Sucarrat, Genaro; Bauwens, Luc & Rime, Dagfinn (2008)
  Exchange Rate Volatility and the Mixture of Distribution Hypothesis

  High-Frequency Financial Econometrics, , s. 7-29.

• Kilponen, Juha & Leitemo, Kai (2008)
  Model Uncertainty and Delegation: A Case for Friedman's k-Percent Money Growth Rule?

  Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 40(2-3) , s. 547-556.

• Clark, Derek J. & Riis, Christian (2008)
  Rational benevolence in small committees

  Public Choice, 134(3/4) , s. 139-146.

• Helland, Leif & Hovi, Jon (2008)
  Non-Instrumental Behavior in an Environmental Public Good Game

  [Report Research]. Handelshøyskolen BI

• Bjørnland, Hilde C; Brubakk, Leif & Jore, Anne Sofie (2008)
  Forecasting inflation with an uncertain output gap

  Empirical Economics, 35(3) , s. 413-436. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-007-0165-y

• Dalen, Dag Morten; Hoel, Michael & Strøm, Steinar (2008)
  Kalkulasjonsrenten på lang sikt i en usikker verden

  Samfunnsøkonomen, (8)

• Leitemo, Kai & Söderström, Ulf (2008)
  Robust monetary policy in the New Keynesian framework

  Macroeconomic Dynamics, 12(S1) , s. 126-135. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1017/S1365100507070058

• Halvorsen, Jørn I & Bjørnland, Hilde C. (2008)
  How does monetary policy respond to exchange rate movements? New international evidence

  [Report Research]. Norges Handelshøyskole

  Vis sammendrag

  This paper analyzes how monetary policy responds to exchange rate movements in open economies, paying particular attention to the interaction between monetary policy and exchange rate movements. We address this issue using a structural VAR model that is identified using a combination of sign and short-term (zero) restrictions. Our suggested identification scheme allows for a simultaneous reaction between the variables that are observed to respond intraday to news (the interest rate and the exchange rate), but maintains the recursive order for the traditional macroeconomic variables (GDP and inflation). Doing so, we find strong interaction between monetary policy and exchange rate variation: An exchange rate shock that depreciates the exchange rate by one percent increases the interest rate by 20-40 basis points on impact. Furthermore, a contractionary monetary policy shock that increases the interest rate by 100 basis points appreciates the exchange rate on impact by 2.5-4 percent before it gradually depreciates back to baseline. Our results suggest more theory consistency in the monetary policy responses than what has previously been reported.

• Helland, Leif; Asheim, Geir, Hovi, Jon & Høyland, Bjørn (2008)
  Self-serving dictators

  [Report Research]. Department of economics, UiO

• Leitemo, Kai & Söderström, Ulf (2008)
  Robust monetary policy in a small open economy

  Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 32(10) , s. 3218-3252. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2008.02.002

• Mittenzwei, Klaus & Gaasland, Ivar (2008)
  Dokumentasjon av Jordmod: Modellbeskrivelse og analyser

  [Report Research]. NIBIO

• Maurseth, Per Botolf (2008)
  Governance Indicators: A guided Tour

  [Report Research]. NUPI

• Helland, Leif & Monkerud, Lars Christian (2008)
  Electoral agency in the lab

  [Report Research]. Handelshøyskolen BI

• Bjørnland, Hilde C & Jacobsen, Dag Henning (2008)
  Oil price shocks and stock market booms in an oil exporting country

  [Report Research]. Handelshøyskolen BI

  Vis sammendrag

  This paper analyses the effects of oil price shocks on stock returns in Norway, an oil exporting country, highlighting the transmission channels of oil prices for macroeconomic behaviour. To capture the interaction between the different variables, stock returns are incorporated into a structural VAR model, as stock prices are an important transmission channel of wealth in an oil abundant country. I find that following a 10 percent increase in oil prices, stock returns increase by 2.5 percent, after which the effect eventually dies out. The results are robust to different (linear and non-linear) transformations of oil prices. The effects on the other variables are more modest. However, all variables indicate that the Norwegian economy responds to higher oil prices by increasing aggregate wealth and demand. The results also emphasize the role of other shocks; monetary policy shocks in particular, as important driving forces behind stock price variability in the short term.

• Januleviciute, Jurgita; Straume, Hans-Martin & Vårdal, Erling (2008)
  Effekten av en nasjons valutavalg på utenrikshandelen

  Norsk økonomisk tidsskrift, 122(2) , s. 36-50.

• Geys, Benny & Murdoch, Zuzana (2008)
  How to make head or tail of ‘bridging’ and ‘bonding’?: addressing the methodological ambiguity

  British Journal of Sociology, 59(3) , s. 435-454.

• Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Hungnes, Håvard (2008)
  The Commodity Currency Puzzle

  [Professional Article]. The IUP Journal of Monetary Economics, VI(2) , s. 7-30.

  Vis sammendrag

  This paper addresses the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) puzzle for a commodity currency. In particular, we analyze the real exchange rate behavior in Norway, which has a primary commodity (oil) that constitutes the majority of its exports. A substantial part of the literature on commodity currencies has found that, despite controlling for the effect of commodity prices, PPP does not hold in the long run. We show that once we also control for the effect of the interest rate differential in the real exchange rate relationship, the deviations from PPP are fully accounted for. Furthermore, with the interest rate differential included in the long run real exchange rate relationship, the real oil price plays only a minor role. Adjustment to equilibrium (half-lives) is also substantially reduced, taking no more than one year on average. Hence, contrary to earlier findings on commodity currencies, this paper has effectively dealt with the PPP puzzle.

• Helland, Leif & Hovi, Jon (2008)
  Renegotiation proofness and climate agreements some experimental evidence

  Nordic Journal of Political Economy (NOPEC), 34, s. 1-26.

• Bye, Brita; Fæhn, Taran, Heggedal, Tom-Reiel, Jacobsen, Karl & Strøm, Birger (2008)
  An innovation and climate policy model with factor-biased technological change: A small, open economy approach.

  [Report Research]. Statistisk sentralbyrå (SSB)

  Vis sammendrag

  This report documents the model structure and empirical implementation procedures of a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model that includes induced technological change (ITC). The model is developed for analyses of economy-wide welfare and growth impacts of innovation and greenhouse gas abatement policy. It accounts for macroeconomic productivity and productivity growth effects in an realistic economic and political setting, where several simultaneous reallocations take place and interact with each other.

• Sørensen, Rune Jørgen; Bjone, Ralph & Molden, Lars (2008)
  Forsvaret på shopping: Usikkerhet, opportunisme og kontraktsutforming

  Beta – Scandinavian Journal of Business Research, 22(2) Doi: https://www.scup.com/doi/abs/10.18261/ISSN1504-3134-2008-02-01

  Vis sammendrag

  Forsvarsmateriell er kostbart, utstyret er teknologisk avansert, anskaffelsesprosessen er langvarig, og utstyret har ofte meget lang levetid. Utforming av kontrakter om kjøp av militært utstyr fremstår derfor som viktig og krevende. Analysen viser at de fleste forsvarskontrakter er varianter av fastpriskontrakter. Kontraktene har gjennomgående høy detaljeringsgrad. Den teknologiske usikkerheten og kostnadsusikkerheten i prosjektene er lav, mens det er større usikkerhet om fremdriftsplaner. Studien viser at teknologisk usikkerhet og kompetanse i innkjøpsorganisasjonen er viktig for graden av kontraktsspesifikasjon. En høy spesifikasjonsgrad i kontraktene og lav usikkerhet om fremdriftsplan legger til rette for bruk av fastpriskontrakter. Forventninger om opportunisme fra leverandørens side synes ikke å lede til større kontraktsspesifikasjon, men til mer bruk av fastpriskontrakter. Fastpriskontrakter har færre budsjettoverskridelser, men flere forsinkelser enn kostnadskontrakter.

• Sørensen, Rune Jørgen; Eskild, Anne, Grytten, Jostein Ivar, Hagen, Terje P., Skau, Irene & Moen, Helga (2008)
  The impact of hospital financing systems on cesarean births in Norway, 1970-2006

  [Report Research]. Handelshøyskolen BI

• Gustavsen, Trond Stølen; Laksov, D. & Skjelnes, R. M. (2007)
  An elemtary, explicit, proof of the existence of Quot schemes of points

  Pacific Journal of Mathematics, 231(2) , s. 401-415.

• Røed-Larsen, Erling (2007)
  Does the CPI Mirror the Cost of Living? Engel's Law Suggests Not in Norway

  The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 109(1) , s. 177-195.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2007)
  Hvor går verden? noen utvalgte krefter og trender

  Magma forskning og viten, 10(3) , s. 44-56.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon & Sjølie, Øystein (2007)
  Klimakvoter - avlat eller frelse?

  Nytt Norsk Tidsskrift (NNT), (3) , s. 323-329.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2007)
  Euro for Norge?

  Økonomisk forum, (4) , s. 9-13.

• Dalen, Dag Morten; Moen, Espen R. & Riis, Christian (2007)
  Regulering av fjernvarme: Utredning for Olje- og energidepartementet

  [Report Research]. Handelshøyskolen BI

  Vis sammendrag

  I denne rapporten vurderer vi reguleringer av fjernvarmesektoren i Norge. Utgangspunktet for analysen er hensynet til en samfunnsøkonomisk effektiv energiforsyning. Prinsippene for effektive investeringer i energiinfrastruktur identifiseres, og sentralt i rapporten står vurderinger av hvilke implikasjoner disse prinsippene har for en hensiktsmessig regulering av varmesektoren. Rapporten er organisert som følger: Kapittel 1 presenterer konklusjoner og anbefalinger. Kapittel 2 introduserer problemstillingen i rapporten. Kapittel 3 gir en generell beskrivelse av kostnadsstrukturen el- og varme¬distribusjonen, samt alternativene desentralisert oppvarming basert på olje og biomasse. Kapittel 4 beskriver utviklingen av fjernvarme i Norge. Vi dokumenterer kostnads- og prisnivået i fjernvarmebransjen. Kapittel 5 beskriver relevante reguleringer av fjernvarme i Norge. Kapittel 6 gir en generell fremstilling av kriteriene for effektiv utnyttelse av energi¬infrastruktur, og avslutter med en redegjørelse for kriteriet for effektive fjernvarmeinvesteringer. I kapittel 7 vurderes dagens regulering av fjern¬varme.

• Leitemo, Kai (2007)
  The Optimal Perception of Inflation Persistence is Zero

  The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 109(1) , s. 107-113.

• Lauritzen, Pål (2007)
  Slik bruker du eksamenskalkulatoren Texas Instruments BA II Plus

  Cappelen Damm Akademisk

• Ytterhus, Bjarne E. (2007)
  Business and the Environment. Policy Incentives and Corporate Responses

  OECD Publication

• Lauritzen, Pål (2007)
  Using the Texas Instruments BA II Plus

  Cappelen Damm Akademisk

• Riis, Christian (2007)
  Contingent Payments in Selection Contests

  Review of Economic Design, 11(2)

• Darnall, N.; Jolley, G.J. & Ytterhus, Bjarne E. (2007)
  Understanding the Relationship between a Facility's Environmental and Financial Performance

  Environmental Policy And Corporate Behaviour, Nick Johnstone (ed),

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2007)
  Folk på vandring

  Internasjonal Politikk, (1) , s. 91-102.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2007)
  Globalisering

  Økonomisk forum, (1) , s. 4-9.

• Bjørnland, Hilde C. (2007)
  Statsbudsjett i en uvanlig høykonjunktur

  Økonomisk forum, (8)

• Tveit, Anders (2007)
  Opptre før du kan det! Hva gode undervisningsopplegg og gode dataspill har til felles

  [Professional Article]. Nordic Journal of Digital Literacy, (3)

• Isachsen, Arne Jon & Randers, Jørgen (2007)
  Fremtidsbilde 2030: Er verden flat? Drivkrefter og spilleregler

  Magma forskning og viten, 10(1) , s. 51-57.

• Bye, Brita; Fæhn, Taran & Heggedal, Tom-Reiel (2007)
  Welfare and growth impacts of innovation in a small, open economy: An applied general equilibrium analysis

  [Professional Article]. SSB - Discussion papers, (510)

• Heggedal, Tom-Reiel & Kverndokk, Snorre (2007)
  The Cost of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation in Europe - Kyoto and Beyond

  International Association for Energy Economics Newsletter,

• Leitemo, Kai & Lønning, Ingunn (2006)
  Simple monetary policymaking without the output gap

  Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 38(6) , s. 1619-1640.

  Vis sammendrag

  Several research contributions have argued that information about the output gap is essential for a good monetary policy rule. However, as pointed out by Orphanides (2001), there is considerable real-time uncertainty about the size of the output gap. The paper argues that simple monetary policy rules that rely exclusively on (survey-based) information about future and past inflation rates may be more efficient than optimized Taylor rules once real-time output gap uncertainty is accounted for. Even when only information about historical inflation rates is available, a very simple policy rule may be constructed that improves on the Taylor rule.

• Ytterhus, Bjarne E. (2006)
  The Norwegian Environmental Business Barometer

  Schaltegger S and Wagner M (eds), Managing the Business Case of Sustainability,

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2006)
  Bank og finans i Kina

  Magma forskning og viten, 9(1) , s. 68-76.

• Dalen, Dag Morten & Strøm, Steinar (2006)
  The pharmaceutical market in Norway

  Competition and Welfare: The Norwegian Experience, ed. Lars Sørgard,

• Røed-Larsen, Erling (2006)
  Distributional Effects of Environmental Taxes on Transportation: Evidence from Engel Curves in the United States

  Journal of Consumer Policy, 29(3) , s. 301-318.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2006)
  Hva mer kan staten gjøre for meg?

  [Professional Article]. Økonomisk forum, (4) , s. 7-8.

• Leitemo, Kai (2006)
  Targeting inflation by forecast feedback rules in small open economies

  Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 30

  Vis sammendrag

  We argue that in practice, the inflation-targeting strategy can be approximated by the interest rate responding to the unchanged-interest-rate forecast of inflation. A method is developed to derive unchanged-interest-rate forecasts in forward-looking models and evaluate the performance of the policy rule in an optimizing New Keynesian model due to Monacelli (European Central Bank, Working Paper Series: 227), estimated on UK data. We find that the policy rule is less prone to generate a determinate rational expectations equilibrium ifbased on an unchanged interest rate, compared to the rule-consistent forecast. Both rules approximate the optimal commitment policy if the central bank attaches sufficient weight to inflation as opposed to output gap stabilization. The optimal forecast-feedback horizon is close to a year and a half and is largely independent of how much the central bank prefers inflation to output gap stability. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

• Steigum, Erling (2006)
  Aktivabobler - kan og bør myndighetene gjøre noe?

  Magma forskning og viten, 9(1) , s. 57-67.

• Leitemo, Kai (2006)
  Open-Economy Inflation-Forecast Targeting

  The German Economic Review, 7(1) , s. 35-64.

• Dalen, Dag Morten; Strøm, Steinar & Haabeth, Tonje (2006)
  Price regulation and generic competition in the pharmaceutical market

  European Journal of Health Economics, 7, s. 208-214.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2006)
  Økonomiske utfordringer i Kina

  Økonomisk forum, (3) , s. 29-37.

• Steigum, Erling (2006)
  Den keynesianske revolusjonen 70 år etter: Et tilbakeblikk

  Økonomisk forum, (6) , s. 18-26.

• Røed-Larsen, Erling (2006)
  Escaping the Resource Curse and the Dutch Disease? When and Why Norway Caught up with and Forged ahead of Its Neighbors

  The American journal of economics and sociology, 65(3) , s. 605-640.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2006)
  Like før det smeller? Om globale ubalanser

  Internasjonal Politikk, (2) , s. 227-243.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2006)
  Experiences with the Euro thus far

  From, J. & Sitter, N. (eds.) (2006), Europe?s nascent state? Public policy in the European Union. Essays in honour of Kjell A. Eliassen, Gyldendal Akademisk, , s. 187-213.

• Dalen, Dag Morten; Moen, Espen R. & Riis, Christian (2006)
  Contract renewal and incentives in public procurement

  International Journal of Industrial Organization, 24(2) , s. 269-285.

  Vis sammendrag

  This paper explores how the government's choice of renewal policy in public procurement programs can be used as a mechanism to provide firms with incentives to supply quality. A public service is produced by several firms. The firms participate in a tournament where they are ranked according to the quality of their services, and rewarded in terms of contract renewals. We analyse the firms' incentives to produce high-quality services, and find that they are maximised if 50% of the contracts are renewed. The optimal renewal policy trades off incentive provision (which requires that a relatively large fraction of the firms are replaced each period) against the entry costs of new firms. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

• Moen, Espen R. & Rosen, Åsa (2006)
  Equilibrium incentive contracts and efficiency wages

  Journal of the European Economic Association, 4, s. 1165-1192.

  Vis sammendrag

  We analyze the optimal (efficiency) wage contract when output is contractible but firms neither observe the workers' effort nor their match-specific productivity. Firms offer wage contracts that optimally trade off effort and wage costs. As a result, employed workers enjoy rents, which in turn creates unemployment. Nonetheless, the incentive power of the equilibrium wage contract is constrained efficient in the absence of taxes and unemployment benefits. We also show that more high-powered incentive contracts tend to be associated with higher equilibrium unemployment rates.

• Fjeldstad, Øystein; Moen, Espen R. & Riis, Christian (2006)
  Regulation and competition in the Norwegian telecommunication market

  Competition and Welfare: The Norwegian Experience, Lars Sørgaard (ed),

• Andreassen, Tor W.; Lorentzen, Bengt G. & Olsson, Ulf Henning (2006)
  The impact of non-normality and estimation methods in SEM on satisfaction research in marketing

  Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, 40

  Vis sammendrag

  This paper discusses consequences of violating the normal distribution assumption imbedded in Structural Equation Modeling (SEM). Based on real data from a large sample customer satisfaction survey we follow the procedures as suggested in leading textbooks. We document consequences of this practice and discuss its impact on decision making in marketing.

• Maurseth, Per Botolf (2006)
  Utenlandsinvesteringer i fiskeri- og havbruksnæringen - resultater fra en spørreundersøkelse

  [Report Research]. Norsk Utenrikspolitisk Institutt

  Vis sammendrag

  Notatet gjengir en undersøkelse blant norske fiskeribedrifters investeringer i utlandet. Undersøkelsen er basert på dybdeintervjuer med 10 bedrifter. Bedriftene omfatter store konsern og små bedrifter innenfor flere deler av fiskerisektoren. Svarene i undersøkelsen peker i retning av at markedsadgang er et vesentlig motiv for norske fiskeribedrifters investeringer i andre land. I noen sammenhenger er dette kombinert med motiver om billig arbeidskraft og om tilgang til fiskeressurser. Undersøkelsen viser også at bedrifter både driver oppkjøp av eksisterende bedrifter og investeringer i ny produksjon. Teknologiske faktorer, som at norske bedrifter er spesielt konkurransedyktige på sine felt, bidrar også til investeringer i andre land. I fiskerisektoren er politiske reguleringer mer omfattende enn i mange andre næringer. Derfor skjer utenlandsinvesteringer i denne næringen i hovedsak innenfor oppdrett og fiskeforedling, og i mindre grad i fiske. Det norske virkemiddelapparatet for norsk næringsliv har bare i begrenset grad hatt betydning for de bedriftene som har deltatt i undersøkelsen.

• Leitemo, Kai; Røisland, Øistein & Torvik, Ragnar (2006)
  Should Central Banks care about Traded and non-Traded Sectors?

  [Professional Article]. IUP Journal of Bank Management, 5(1)

• Bye, Brita; Fæhn, Taran & Heggedal, Tom-Reiel (2006)
  Forskning og utvikling i næringslivet: - politiske intensjoner og valg av virkemidler

  [Popular Science Article]. Økonomiske analyser, 6

• Bye, Brita; Fæhn, Taran, Heggedal, Tom-Reiel & Strøm, Birger (2006)
  A CGE model of induced technological change: A detailed model description

  [Report Research]. Statistisk sentralbyrå (SSB)

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2005)
  Internasjonal politikk på randen?

  CME Working Paper, (2)

• Grønn, Erik (2005)
  Anvendt mikroøkonomi

  [Textbook]. Cappelen forlag

• Leitemo, Kai & Söderström, Ulf (2005)
  Simple monetary policy rules and exchange rate uncertainty

  Journal of International Money and Finance, 24, s. 481-507.

  Vis sammendrag

  We analyze the performance and robustness of some common simple rules for monetary policy in a New-Keynesian open-economy model under different assumptions about the exchange rate model. Adding the exchange rate to an optimized Taylor rule (that responds to CPI inflation) gives only small improvements in terms of economic stability in most model configurations. The Taylor rule is also slightly more robust to uncertainty about the exchange rate model than are rules that respond to the rate of exchange rate depreciation. Our results thus indicate that the Taylor rule is sufficient to stabilize a small open economy, also under exchange rate model uncertainty. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2005)
  Bananer, dollar og WTO. Transatlantiske økonomiske relasjoner

  Skogan, J. K. (red.): Hva nå USA og Europa?,

• Moen, Espen R. & Rosen, Åsa (2005)
  Performance pay and adverse selection

  The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 107(2) , s. 279-298.

  Vis sammendrag

  It is well known in personnel economics that firms may improve the quality of their workforce by offering performance pay. We analyze an equilibrium model where worker productivity is private information and show that the firms' gain from worker self-selection may not be matched by a corresponding social gain. In particular, the equilibrium incentive contracts are excessively high-powered, thereby inducing the more productive workers to exert too much effort and increasing agency costs stemming from the misallocation of effort.

• Steigum, Erling (2005)
  Finn Kydland - Norges tredje Nobelprisvinner i økonomi

  Økonomisk forum, 59(1)

• Røed-Larsen, Erling (2005)
  Are Rich Countries Immune to the Resource Curse? Evidence from Norway's Management of Its Oil Riches

  Resources Policy, 30(2) , s. 75-86.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2005)
  Andres penger

  Internasjonal Politikk, (5) , s. 567-581.

• Røed-Larsen, Erling (2005)
  The Top Three Questions in Economics: When Theory is Confronted with History

  Scandinavian Economic History Review, 53(3) , s. 34-57.

• Røed-Larsen, Erling & Beatty, Timothy K.M. (2005)
  Using Engel Curves to Estimate Bias in the Canadian CPI as a Cost of Living Index

  Canadian Journal of Economics, 38(2) , s. 482-499.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2005)
  Kina

  CME Working Paper, (1)

• Dalen, Dag Morten; Strøm, Steinar & Haabeth, Tonje (2005)
  Price regulation and generic competition in the pharmaceutical market

  [Report Research]. Universitetet i Oslo

• Olsen, S.O.; Wilcox, J. & Olsson, Ulf Henning (2005)
  Consequences of Ambivalence on Satisfaction and Loyalty

  Psychology & Marketing, 22(3) , s. 247-269.

• Maurseth, Per Botolf (2005)
  Trade and development - a selective review

  [Report Research]. Norsk Utenrikspolitisk Institutt

  Vis sammendrag

  This paper reviews parts of the recent literature on trade and growth. The relationships between trade and growth have been extensively studied in recent research. Many studies indicate that trade stimulates income and growth. The literature is controversial and many studies are criticised for weaknesses in methodology. Despite the methodological controversies, most evidence gives support for the view that trade stimulates growth. It is argued that major deficiency in the literature is that it does not discriminate between the impact of market access in other countries and the impact of liberal domestic trade policies.

• Armour, E. A. G. & Vigier, Adrien Henri (2005)
  Inclusion of the strong interaction in low-energy hydrogen–antihydrogen scattering using a complex potential

  Journal of Physics B: Atomic, Molecular and Optical Physics, 38(3) , s. 47-54. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/0953-4075/38/3/L01

• Bauwens, Luc; Rime, Dagfinn & Sucarrat, Genaro (2005)
  Exchange Rate Volatility and the Mixture of Distribution Hypothesis

  Empirical Economics, 30, s. 889-911. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-005-0005-x

• Maurseth, Per Botolf (2005)
  Norway's trade with developing countries

  [Report Research]. Norsk Utenrikspolitisk Institutt

  Vis sammendrag

  This paper presents some characteristics of Norway’s trade with developing countries. Norwegian trade with low and low middle-income countries has increased in recent years. Imports have increased more than exports. This is partly because a large part of Norwegian exports is petroleum sold to other OECD countries. Norwegian trade with the least developed countries, on the other hand, is stagnant and constitutes only a minor share of Norwegian foreign trade. This pattern is similar to other OECD countries: Developing countries increase their share in world trade while least developed countries are marginalized. By adjusting for size and geographical position of Norwegian trade partners it is found that Norwegian trade with developing countries is as expected as compared to other OECD countries.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon & Bjønnes, Geir Høidal (2005)
  Hjelper til globale penger

  Gyldendal Akademisk

• Frank, Björn & Maurseth, Per Botolf (2005)
  The German ICT industry : Spatial employment and innovation patterns

  [Report Research]. Norsk Utenrikspolitisk Institutt

  Vis sammendrag

  This paper documents recent developments in German ICT industries. In particular we report results on spatial patterns in innovation and employment in these industries. The paper is motivated by previous studies that have found that ICT industries seem to cluster geographically and having spatially clustered growth rates. In this study, we discriminate between production of ICT devices and production of ICT services. In Germany, production of ICT devices is concentrated in clusters of innovating regions (in terms of patents). ICT service production, on the other hand, is concentrated in larger urban areas. Growth rates in ICT-related employment show different spatial patterns. The data show that negative spatial effects are present for several sectors, which might give support for the so-called backwash effect described by Gunnar Myrdal (1957). For other sectors, positive spatial spillover effects may be present. For overall economic development (in terms of gross regional product per habitant) we find weak positive growth effects ICT, but these growth effects stem more from innovation than from production or use of ICT.

• Dørum, Ø.; Holden, Stein Terje, Isachsen, Arne Jon & Isachsen, Arne Jon (2005)
  Norges Bank Watch 2005. An Independent Review of Monetary Policymaking in Norway

  [Report Research]. Centre for Monetary Economics, BI Norwegian School of Management

• Leitemo, Kai; Røisland, Øistein & Torvik, Ragnar (2005)
  Monetary Policy Rules and The Exchange Rate Channel

  Applied Financial Economics, 16(15) , s. 1165-1170.

• Bjørnenak, Trond; Dalen, Dag Morten, Dalen, Dag Morten, Fehr, Nils-H. M. Von der, Olsen, Trond E. & Torsvik, Gaute (2005)
  På like vilkår? Analyse av konkurranse mellom offentlige og private foretak

  Konkurransetilsynet

• Røed-Larsen, Erling & Sommervoll, Dag Einar (2004)
  Inequality of Housing? Evidence from Segmented House Price Indices

  Housing, Theory and Society, 21(2) , s. 77-88.

• Steigum, Erling (2004)
  Financial deregulation with a fixed exchange rate: Lessons from Norway's boom-bust cycle and banking crisis

  Thorvald Moe, Jon Solheim and Bent Vale (eds.): The Norwegian Banking Crisis,

• Ytterhus, Bjarne E. (2004)
  Environmental Policy Tools and Firm-level Management Practices. National report: Norway

  [Report Research]. Handelshøyskolen BI

  Vis sammendrag

  Objectives: The objective of this study is to provide practical policy advice concerning the effectiveness and efficiency of alternative policy tools, including environmental management systems (EMS’s) and other programs that encourage environmental innovations. Questions to be addressed include: - Do different types of policies (i.e. market-based measures, voluntary approaches, direct regulation) result in different organisational responses within the firm? - How can public authorities support the introduction of management practices that lead to improved environmental performance (including innovation)? - How can scarce public resources be better targeted to ensure that both “leaders” and “laggards” improve their environmental perfor-mance? Context of the study: To provide understanding of the firm’s commercial performance motivations, decision-making procedures and organisational structure when designing and implementing environmental policies, the OECD Environmental Directorate initiated a project called “Environmental Policy Design and Firm-Level Management”. This project was supported financially by OECD’s Working Party on National Environmental Policies. Seven countries have executed an industrial survey exploring the links between public (government) environmental policies and private (firm) environmental management and innovation. The participating countries were Canada, France, Germany, Hungary, Japan, Norway and the U.S.

• Lundgren, Stefan; Flodén, Martin, Steigum, Erling & Wijkander, Hans (2004)
  Finanser för framtida välfärd. Konjunkturrådets rapport

  SNS förlag

• Aarset, Magne (2004)
  Studieguide: Metode og dataanalyse MET 2360

  [Report Research]. BI Nettstudier

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2004)
  Vekst og fordeling ? noen betraktninger om EU og USA

  Økonomisk forum, (8) , s. 30-35.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2004)
  Seks artikler om økonomisk vekst, renter og valuta

  CME Working Paper, (3)

• Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Ekeli, Thomas, Geraats, Petra M. & Leitemo, Kai (2004)
  Norges Bank Watch 2004 - An Independent Review of Monetary Policymaking in Norway

  [Report Research]. Handelshøyskolen BI

• Johnstone, Nick; Scapecchi, Pascale, Ytterhus, Bjarne E. & Wolff, Rolf (2004)
  The Firm, Environmental Management and Environmental Measures: Lessons from a Survey of European Manufacturing Firms

  Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, 47(5) , s. 685-707.

• Steigum, Erling (2004)
  Undervisning i makroøkonomi på bachelornivå

  Økonomisk forum, 57(5)

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2004)
  Reisebrev fra Vietnam

  [Professional Article]. Magma forskning og viten, (3) , s. 102-112.

• Ytterhus, Bjarne E. & Welford, Richard (2004)
  Sustainable development and tourism destination management: A case study of the Lillehammer region, Norway

  International Journal of Sustainable Development and World Ecology, 11

• Dalen, Dag Morten & Strøm, S. (2004)
  Pris- og avanseregulering for legemidler

  [Report Research]. Frischsenteret

• Steigum, Erling (2004)
  Oppgaver til Moderne makroøkonomi

  [Textbook]. Gyldendal Akademisk

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2004)
  Reisebrev fra Belgia

  CME Working Paper, (3)

• Leitemo, Kai (2004)
  Omstillinger i den makroøkonomiske politikken

  ?, (2)

• Steigum, Erling (2004)
  Moderne makroøkonomi

  [Textbook]. Gyldendal Akademisk

• Moen, Espen R. & Rosen, Åsa (2004)
  Does Poaching Distort Training

  ?, 71(4) , s. 1143-1162.

• Leitemo, Kai (2004)
  A Game Between the Fiscal and the Monetary authorities under Inflation Targeting

  European Journal of Political Economy, 20, s. 709-724.

• Fujiwara-Greve, Takako & Greve, Henrich R. (2004)
  The role of expectation in job search and firm size effect on wages

  Japanese Economic Review, 55(1) , s. 56-85.

• Bjønnes, Geir Høidal; Rime, Dagfinn & Solheim, Haakon (2004)
  The Role of Foreign Speculators in Speculative Attacks. The Case of 1998

  Sandrine Lardic and Valérie Mignon (eds.): Recent Developments on Exchange Rates,

• Gripsrud, Geir; Olsson, Ulf Henning & Silkoset, Ragnhild (2004)
  Metode og Dataanalyse. Med fokus på beslutninger i bedrifter

  [Textbook]. Cappelen Damm Høyskoleforlaget

• Dalen, Dag Morten; Lædre, Ola & Riis, Christian (2004)
  Statlig styring av prosjektledelse

  [Report Research]. Frischsenteret

• Isachsen, Arne Jon & Bjønnes, Geir Høidal (2004)
  Globale Penger

  Gyldendal Akademisk

• Olsson, Ulf Henning; Olsson, Ulf Henning, Foss, Tron & Breivik, Einar (2004)
  Two equivalent discrepancy functions for maximum likelihood estimation: Do their test statistics follow a non-central Chi-square distribution under model misspecification?

  Sociological Methods & Research, 32(4) , s. 453-500.

  Vis sammendrag

  Over the years several discrepancy,functions have been introduced both in the literature and in the software of Structural Equation Modeling (SEM). The test statistics for the discrepancy functions associated with Maximum Likelihood (ML), Generalized Least Squares (GLS), and Normal Theory Weighted Least Squares (NWLS) are all asymptotically equivalent. These test statistics are all approximately distributed as central chi-square under correct model specification and if the observed variables are multivariate normally distributed. However, it is known that the distribution of these test statistics will not approximate a central Chi-square distribution for models containing specification error, but is more likely to follow a non-central Chi-square distribution (Browne 1984). This study investigates the empirical distributions of the ML and NWLS discrepancy functions. The study includes 13 different factor models with different types and degrees of specification error It is found, except for small samples, that the empirical distribution of the ML-test statistic outperforms the empirical distribution of the NWLS-test statistic in terms of approximation to the theoretical non-central Chi-square distribution. Furthermore, in some cases, it turned out that the non-central Chi-square approximation was not appropriate even for models that contained minor and moderate degrees of specification error. Abstract: Over the years several discrepancy,functions have been introduced both in the literature and in the softwareof Structural Equation Modeling (SEM). The test statistics for the discrepancy functions associated with Maximum Likelihood (ML), Generalized Least Squares (GLS), and Normal Theory Weighted Least Squares (NWLS) are all asymptotically equivalent. These test statistics are all approximately distributed ascentral chi-square under correct model specification and if the observed variables are multivariate normally distributed.However, it is known that the distribution of these test statistics will not approximate a central Chi-square distribution for models containing specification error, but is more likely to follow a non-central Chi-square distribution (Browne 1984). This study investigates the empirical distributions of the ML and NWLS discrepancy functions. The study includes 13 different factor models with different types and degrees of specification error It is found, except for small samples, thattheempirical distribution of the ML-test statistic outperforms the empirical distribution of the NWLS-test statistic in terms of approximation to the theoretical non-central Chi-square distribution. Furthermore, in some cases, itturned out that the non-central Chi-square approximation was not appropriate even for models that contained minor and moderate degrees of specification error.

• Leitemo, Kai (2003)
  Targeting Inflation by Constant-Interest-Rate Forecasts

  ?, 35(4) , s. 609-626.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2003)
  Reisebrev fra Amerika

  [Report Research]. Handelshøyskolen BI

• Moen, Espen R. (2003)
  Do Good Workers Hurt Bad Workers-or is it the Other Way Around?

  International Economic Review, 44, s. 779-799.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon & Hugnes, Håvard (2003)
  Trenger Norge en valutakurspolitikk?

  [Report Research]. Handelshøyskolen BI

  Vis sammendrag

  Med dette notatet vil vi invitere til en diskusjon om behovet for en valutakurspolitikk i Norge. Er det mulig med en egen valutakurspolitikk? Er det ønskelig med en norsk valutakurspolitikk? Om man på begge disse to spørsmålene kan svare ja, følger et tredje: Hva slags valutakurspolitikk bør Norge ta sikte på?

• Greve, Takako (2003)
  Perspectives of Game Theory

  Shinsuke Nakamura, Taro Ozawa and Takako Greve (eds.): Public Economics: Theory and Practice",

• Dalen, Dag Morten & Gomez-Lobo, Andres (2003)
  Yardsticks on the road: Regulatory contracts and cost efficiency in the Norwegian Bus Industry

  Transportation, 30, s. 371-368.

• Moen, Espen R.; Dalen, Dag Morten & Riis, Christian (2003)
  Privat arbeidsformidling

  [Report Research]. Handelshøyskolen BI

  Vis sammendrag

  I denne rapporten diskuteres hvorvidt offentlig finansiert privat arbeidsformidling kan være et egnet virkemiddel i arbeidsmarkedspolitikken. Videre analyseres mulige effekter av å introdusere aktivitetsbasert finansiering av Aetat. Vi vektlegger spesielt tre forhold som tilsier at forholdene ligger godt til rette for offentlig finansiert privat arbeidsformidling: 1. Sluttproduktet ved arbeidsformidling, overgang til arbeid, er i utgangspunktet observerbart og kvantifiserbart. Dette muliggjør effektiv kontraktsstyring av private aktører. Riktignok kan det oppstå problemer som følge av at jobber har forskjellig kvalitet (for eksempel forskjellig varighet) og ikke minst som følge av at arbeidstakerne er heterogene. Sistnevnte forhold kan medføre at private arbeidsformidlere i for stor grad setter inn ressurser på de personene som er relativt lette å formidle, på bekostning av personer hvor formidling krever mer. Vi er likevel av den oppfatning at slike problemer i rimelig grad kan forebygges ved å benytte incentivkontrakter med differensierte satser og ved å la fornyelse av kontraktene betinges med hensyn på oppnådde resultater. 2. Det er grunn til å tro at en kan oppnå effektiv konkurranse, i hvert fall i tett befolkede områder. Elementene av stordriftsfordeler ved formidling tømmes relativt raskt ut. Det eneste viktige unntaket er oppbygging av dataregistre, men i henhold til vårt forslag skal denne oppgaven frem-deles utføres av Aetat. Det er videre et poeng at det i dag eksisterer en rekke aktører i markedet som har erfaring fra formidling eller formidlingsliknende virksomhet, som vikarbyråer, personalutvelgelses-firmaer, private arbeidsformidlere og arrangører av arbeidsmarkeds-tiltak. 3. Det kan være breddefordeler mellom arbeidsformidling og andre aktiviteter som vikarutleie. Breddefordelene oppstår som følge av at aktivitetene i stor utstrekning fordrer samme type kompetanse og samme type sosiale nettverk. Konkurranse kan bidra til at gevinstene ved slike breddefordeler blir realisert. Vi analyserer videre tre modeller for privat arbeidsformidling: 1. Arbeidsformidling hektes på allerede eksisterende tiltak, for eksempel jobbklubb. 2. Arbeidsformidling arrangeres som arbeidsmarkedstiltak (”job placement”). 3. Den private arbeidsformidleren overtar totalansvaret for arbeidsledige ved oppfølging. Rapporten diskuterer også spesielle utfordringer som privat arbeidsformidling stilles overfor på mindre tettbefolkede steder. Vi påpeker at potensialet for privat arbeidsformidling kan være mindre utenfor de sentrale områdene, ettersom matchingproblemer her kan være mindre uttalt enn i større byer. Videre kan mulighetene for å oppnå effektiv konkurranse være dårligere. I rapportens siste del diskuteres aktivitetsbasert finansiering av Aetat.

• Steigum, Erling (2003)
  Moderne makroøkonomi (kompendium)

  [Textbook]. Gyldendal Akademisk

• Røed-Larsen, Erling & Aasness, Jørgen (2003)
  Distributional Effects of Environmental Taxes on Transportation

  Journal of Consumer Policy, 26(3) , s. 279-300.

• Røed-Larsen, Erling (2003)
  The Purchase of Equipment as a Factor in Consumer Production of Outdoor Experiences

  Journal of Consumer Policy, 26(3) , s. 351-371.

• Røed-Larsen, Erling (2003)
  From Data to Decision: The Three Elements of Policymaking Illustrated by the Case of Global Warming

  Nordic Journal of Political Economy (NOPEC), 29(2) , s. 133-154.

• Bowen, Alex; O'Brian, Mark & Steigum, Erling (2003)
  Norges Bank's Stability Report: A Review

  [Report Research]. Central Bank of Norway

• Nakamura, Shinsuke; Ozawa, Taro & Greve, Takako (2003)
  Public Economics: Theory and Practice

  Toyo Keizai Co

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2003)
  Fire år med euro

  Økonomisk forum, (2) , s. 18-25.

• Dalen, Dag Morten; Fehr, Nils-H. M. Von der & Moen, Espen R. (2003)
  Regulation with Wage Bargaining

  Economic Journal, 113(487) , s. 525-538.

• Lothe, Solveig & Myrtveit, Ingunn (2003)
  Compensation Systems for Green Strategy Implementation: Parametric and non-parametric approaches

  Business Strategy and the Environment (BSE), 12, s. 191-203.

• Greve, Henrich R. & Fujiwara-Greve, Takako (2003)
  Job Search with Organizational Size as a Signal

  Social Forces, 82(2) , s. 643-670.

• Olsson, Ulf Henning; Olsson, Ulf Henning, Foss, Tron & Troye, Sigurd Villads (2003)
  Does the ADF fit function decrease when the kurtosis increases?

  British Journal of Mathematical & Statistical Psychology, 56(2) , s. 289-303.

• Foss, Tron; Myrtveit, Ingunn, Stensrud, Erik & Kitchenham, B. (2003)
  A Simulation Study of the Model Evaluation Criterion MMRE

  IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering, 29(11) , s. 985-995.

• Steigum, Erling; Steigum, Erling & Thøgersen, Øystein (2003)
  Borrow and adjust: fiscal policy and sectoral adjustment in an open economy

  International Economic Review, 44(2) , s. 699-724.

• Foss, Tron; Myrtveit, Ingunn, Stensrud, Erik & Kitchenham, B. (2003)
  A replicated Empirical Investigation of MMRE

  Empirical Software Engineering, 8(2) , s. 139-161.

• Aslaksen, Iulie & Synnestvedt, Terje (2003)
  Ethical investment and the incentives for corporate environmental protection and social responsibility

  Corporate Social Responsibility and Environmental Management, 10, s. 212-223.

• Matsen, Egil; Steigum, Erling, Steigum, Erling & Thøgersen, Øystein (2003)
  Pensjonsreform, sparing og eierskap

  [Report Research]. Europaprogrammet, "Arvid Brodersen gruppen"

• Sørgard, Lars; Bye, Torstein, Fehr, Nils-H. M. Von der & Riis, Christian (2003)
  Kraft og makt. En analyse av konkurranseforholdene i kraftmarkedet

  [Report Research]. Arbeids- og administrasjonsdepartementet

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2002)
  Har norske bedfrifter for dårlig tilang på kapital?

  Hva gjør oljepengene med oss?, , s. 194-208.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2002)
  The euro is political but it will bring major political changes

  ?, 3(1) , s. 88-93.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2002)
  Stiglitz om globalisering

  Økonomisk forum, (4) , s. 34-37.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2002)
  Hva gjør oljepengene med oss?

  Hva gjør oljepengene med oss?, , s. 13-30.

• Olsson, Ulf Henning & Olsen, Svein Ottar (2002)
  The Effect Of Alternative Multientity Scaling Formats on The Consistency of Country-Of-Origin Attitudes

  Journal of International Business Studies, 33(1) , s. 149-167. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.jibs.8491009

  Vis sammendrag

  This study was particularly designed to respond to Jaffe and Nebenzahl's (1984) suggestion to test whether and how entity-based and attribute-based semantic differential scaling formats could predict purchasing behaviour within a country-of-origin setting. The study includes recent research on survey context effects in order to explain and extend our analysis, and uses attitude consistency theory as a conceptual framework. A comparison of the fit statistics between the two scaling formats on each entity (country) indicates that the attribute-based format estimates a higher attitude response consistency and predictive validity by giving better predictors of global country image (evaluation) and buying frequency of products from the different countries investigated. This study uses data collected from a probability sample of industrial buyers within the seafood industry.

• Schaltegger, S. & Synnestvedt, Terje (2002)
  The link between "green" and economic success: environmental management as the crucial trigger between environmental and economic performance

  Journal of Environmental Management (JEM), 65(4) , s. 339-346.

• Steigum, Erling (2002)
  Befolkningsaldring og økonomisk politikk: Behov for pensjonsreformer?

  [Report Research]. Handelshøyskolen BI

• Moen, Espen R. & Riis, Christian (2002)
  Matvaresektoren i et makroøkonomisk perspektiv

  [Report Research]. Handelshøyskolen BI

  Vis sammendrag

  Rapporten drøfter hvordan utviklingen i de makroøkonomiske forhold påvirker betingelsene for norsk matvareindustri. Etter vår vurdering er utviklingen i matvaresektoren i Norge mer beslektet med utviklingstrekk vi kjenner fra konkurranseutsatte sektorer enn fra skjermede sektorer, som matvaresektoren tradisjonelt er kategorisert innenfor. Dette har betydning for næringsøkonomiske studier av matvaresektoren, spesielt ved at de makroøkonomiske utviklingstrekk knyttet til Norge som oljeøkonomi slår ulikt ut på konkurranseutsatte og skjermede næringer. Som en følge av oljeinntektene er det grunnlag for å anta at Norge i årene framover vil ha en noe høyere kostnadsvekst enn våre handelspartnere og at kroneverdien over tid vil øke (appresiering). Disse utviklingstrekkene vil direkte svekke lønnsomheten i matvareindustrien og kommer i tillegg til de pressfaktorer som følger av internasjonal handelsliberalisering og av endringer i norsk landbrukspolitikk.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2002)
  Venturefond for norsk næringsliv - makroøkonomiske konsekvenser

  Hva gjør oljepengene med oss?, , s. 209-222.

• Dalen, Dag Morten & Gomez-Lobo, Andres (2002)
  Regulatory contracts and cost efficiency in the Norwegian Bus Industry: Do high-powered contracts really work?

  [Report Research]. Handelshøyskolen BI

• Ytterhus, Bjarne E. & Synnestvedt, Terje (2002)
  Oppgaver med løsningsforslag til samfunnsstyring og økonomisk politikk"

  [Textbook]. Cappelen Damm Akademisk

• Eligh, Jason; Welford, Richard & Ytterhus, Bjarne E. (2002)
  The Production of Sustainable Tourism: Concepts and Examples from Norway

  Sustainable Development, 10, s. 223-234.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2002)
  Euro inn - kroner ut? Alternativer i norsk penge- og valutapolitikk

  ?, (5/6) , s. 150-161.

• Dalen, Dag Morten (2002)
  Kan konkurranse bidra til lavere legemiddelpriser?En evaluering av myndighetenes prisregulering

  [Report Research]. Handelshøyskolen BI

  Vis sammendrag

  Reformene i legemiddelmarkedet de senere årene er synlige for de fleste. Apotekene er blitt flere, de er mer tilgjengelige, og de har utviklet et nytt og mer forbrukervennlig butikk-konsept. Markedet er i dag kjennetegnet ved en lokaliserings- og kvalitetskonkurranse mellom kjedene. Reformene har imidlertid ikke endret de fundamentale trekkene ved legemiddelmarkedet som gjør krav på omfattende regulering. Myndighetene ønsker fremdeles å forsikre befolkningen mot store legemiddelutgifter. Staten har dermed påtatt seg hovedansvaret for å betale legemiddelutgiftene som følger av legenes legemiddelforeskrivning. Dette nødvendiggjør regulering av prisdannelsen i markedet. Denne rapporten ser nærmere på hvordan reguleringen er utformet og identifiserer en del svakheter. Oppmerksomheten rettes mot mulighetene for å utløse priskonkurranse på legemidler som ikke lenger er patentbeskyttede. Myndighetenes målsetting på dette området medførte etablering av ordningen med generisk bytte. Isolert sett skulle denne ordningen legge grunnlag for priskonkurranse, men prisreguleringen forøvrig har forhindret at dette har gitt seg utslag i vesentlig lavere legemiddelpriser i apotekene. Selv om generisk bytte gir økt forhandlingsmakt til grossistene og dermed lavere innkjøpspriser på grossistnivå, er det fremdeles kjedene som fastsetter pris til apotek (AIP) og dermed ut av apotek (AUP). En stor svakhet i dagens system er at endringer i prisene mellom kjedene og produsentene (GIP) ikke får noen direkte konsekvens for de regulerte prisene videre i forsyningskjeden. Rapporten foreslår derfor en overgang til fastsettelse av maksimal GIP. Kombinert med et avansereguleringssystem for forsyningskjeden, vil dette i større grad forventes å utløse priskonkurranse som blir synlig på AUP-nivå. Dette foreslås som en grunnreform som kan bygges ut på ulike måter for å fange opp konkurransepotensialet i generikasegmentet: Dagens refusjoner av apotekenes blåreseptekspedisjoner kan, i stedet for å baseres på apotekets faktiske innkjøpspris, baseres på en målestokkbasert refusjonssats. Den målestokkbaserte refusjonssatsen skal reflektere gjennomsnittlig innkjøpspris i markedet. På den måten vil kjedene gis et sterkt økonomisk incentiv til å utlevere legemidler med lave innkjøpspriser. En utvidelse er at staten bruker auksjonsprinsippet for en del viktige preparater på blåreseptlisten. Produsentene inviteres i et slikt system til å konkurrere om enerett til å forsyne markedet med blåresept-preparater.

• Golombek, Rolf & Moen, Espen R. (2002)
  Do negotiated agreements lead to cost efficiency

  Journal of Economics, 76(2) , s. 22-22.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2002)
  Den vanskelige valutakursen

  [Report Research]. Handelshøyskolen BI

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2002)
  Har norske bedrifter for dårlig tilgang på kapital?

  ?, (4) , s. 94-103.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2002)
  Hva gjør oljepengene med oss?

  Cappelen Damm Akademisk

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2002)
  Mye vil ha mer: Norsk Investorforum skriver brev

  Hva gjør oljepengene med oss?, , s. 184-193.

• Svensson, Lars E. O.; Houg, Kjetil, Solheim, Haakon & Steigum, Erling (2002)
  Norges Bank Watch 2002. An Independent Review of Monetary Policy and Institutions in Norway

  [Report Research]. Handelshøyskolen BI

  Vis sammendrag

  The Centre for Monetary Economics (CME) at the Norwegian School of Management BI has for the third time invited a committee of economists for Norges Bank Watch, with the objective to evaluate the monetary-policy regime in Norway and Norges Bank’s conduct of monetary policy. The committee for Norges Bank Watch 2002 consists of Professor Lars E.O. Svensson (chair), Princeton University, Chief Economist Kjetil Houg, Alfred Berg, Doctorate Student Haakon O.Aa. Solheim, Norwegian School of Management BI, and Professor Erling Steigum, Norwegian School of Management BI. The committee met in Oslo in June 2002, had discussions with key officials at Norges Bank and the Ministry of Finance, and has worked on its report until September 2002.

• Dalen, Dag Morten; Grytten, Jostein & Sørensen, Rune J. (2002)
  Mer penger eller mer for pengene? Organisering og finansiering av norske sykehus

  [Report Research]. Handelshøyskolen BI

  Vis sammendrag

  Sykehussektoren har et betydelig potensial for økt kostnadseffektivitet, og vår forståelse er at høyere kvalitet og bedret tilgjengelighet kan oppnås uten en like sterk vekst i helseutgiftene. Gjentatte og store tilleggsbevilgninger fra staten har ført til at kontraktene med sykehusene har fått liten troverdighet. Dette har i sin tur svekket mulighetene for ledelse i sykehusene, og slik redusert kostnadseffektiviteten i sektoren. I lys av denne situasjonsforståelsen diskuterer vi tre finansieringsmodeller for spesialisthelsetjenesten: Per capita-tilskudd, åpne og lukkede produksjonstilskudd samt refusjonsordninger. Tre organisasjonsformer drøftes: Dagens system med regionale helseforetak, en modell der dagens regionale helseforetak har ansvaret også for primærhelsetjenesten, samt en modell der helseforetak kun har eieransvaret for sykehusene mens kommunene har ansvaret for å finansiere alle offentlige helsetjenester.

• Fehr, Hans; Steigum, Erling, Fossati, A. & Wiegard, W. (2002)
  Pension funding reforms in a small open welfare state

  Policy Evaluation with Computable General Equilibrium Models, , s. 232-248.

• Leitemo, Kai & Røisland, Øistein (2002)
  The Choice of Monetary Policy Regime for Small Open Economies

  ?, (67/68) , s. 463-494.

• Stensrud, Erik; Foss, Tron, Kitchenham, B. & Myrtveit, Ingunn (2002)
  An Empirical Validation of the Relationship Between the Magnitude of Relative Error and Project Size

  ?, , s. 3-12.

• Torvik, Ragnar; Leitemo, Kai & Røisland, Øistein (2002)
  Time inconsistency and the exchange rate channel of monetary policy

  ?, 104(3) , s. 391-397.

• Foss, Tron; Stensrud, Erik, Kitchenham, B. & Myrtveit, Ingunn (2002)
  A Simulation Study of the Model Evaluation Criterion MMRE

  [Report Research]. Handelshøyskolen BI

  Vis sammendrag

  The Mean Magnitude of Relative Error, MMRE, is probably the most widely used evaluation criterion for assessing the performance of competing software prediction models. It seems obvious that the purpose of MMRE is to assist us to select the best model. In this paper, we have performed a simulation study demonstrating that MMRE does not select the best model. The consequences are dramatic for a vast body of knowledge in software engineering. The implications of this finding are that the results and conclusions on prediction models over the past 15-25 years are unreliable and may have misled the entire software engineering discipline. We therefore strongly recommend not using MMRE to evaluate and compare prediction models. Instead, we recommend using a combination of theoretical justification of the models we propose together with other metrics proposed in this paper.

• Dalen, Dag Morten; Dalen, Dag Morten & Olsen, Trond E. (2002)
  Strategic regulation of a multi-national banking industry

  [Report Research]. Norges Handelshøyskole

  Vis sammendrag

  This paper focuses on the consequences of cross-border banking and entry of multi-national bank (MNB) subsidiaries for banking supervision and regulation. When a MNB expands internationally with subsidiaries, the MNB operates under the legislation of several countries - both the home country and the host countries. Although these countries have agreed upon minimum standards and supervisory principles, such as in the EU directives or the Basle Accords, substantial degrees of freedom are still left to the national regulators. An interesting and important issue is whether the decentralized approach to regulation of MNBs creates inefficiencies and financial instability. Host country regulation of MNB subsidiaries creates cross-border externalities, where the supervisors and regulators in one country will be concerned with the standards in the home country and in other host countries. Our main result is that lack of international coordination of banking regulation works to lower capital adequacy requirements. In equilibrium, however, regulators respond by increasing the incentives to improve asset quality, making the probability of banking failure insensitive to the decentralized nature of banking regulation. Ownership of the MNB is shown to be of importance for the outcome of strategic banking regulation.

• Steigum, Erling (2001)
  Trade unions and the burden of the public debt

  [Report Research]. Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute for Economic Research

  Vis sammendrag

  This paper looks at intergenerational welfare effects of increased public debt when union power in pay bargaing generates structural unemployment. Under a reasonable condition, the debt burden on future generations from postponement of the labor tax is larger than in the case of no union power.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2001)
  Kapitalistenes jakt på billig statlig eierkapital må avvises

  ?, 4(4) , s. 41-47.

• Dalen, Dag Morten; Moen, Espen R. & Riis, Christian (2001)
  Public Ownership as a Signalling Device

  Nordic Journal of Political Economy (NOPEC), 27(1) , s. 3-12.

• Ytterhus, Bjarne E. (2001)
  Samfunnsstyring og økonomisk politikk

  [Textbook]. Cappelen Damm Akademisk

• Synnestvedt, Terje (2001)
  Debates over environmental information to stakeholders as a policy instrument

  Eco-Management and Auditing, 8(3)

• Moen, Espen R. (2001)
  Hva skal vi gjøre med SDØE?

  Økonomisk forum, 55(5) , s. 29-34.

• Bævre, Kåre; Riis, Christian & Thonstad, Tore (2001)
  Norwegian cohort emigration

  Journal of Population Economics, 14(3) , s. 473-491.

• Olsson, Ulf Henning & Breivik, Einar (2001)
  Adding variables to improve fit: the effect of model size on fit assessment in LISREL

  Structural equation model : present and future : a festschrift in honor of Karl Jöreskog/Robert Cudeck, Stephen du Toit, Dag Sörbom (eds.), , s. 169-194.

• Dalen, Dag Morten & Lund, Arild J. (2001)
  Håndtering av finansielle kriser: Norges banks rolle

  Økonomisk forum, 55(3) , s. 12-17.

• Bjørnestad, Harald; Olsson, Ulf H., Søyland, Svein & Tolcsiner, Frank (2001)
  Matematikk for økonomi og samfunnsfag

  [Textbook]. Cappelen Damm Høyskoleforlaget

• Steigum, Erling (2001)
  Formuesberegninger, bruk av oljeinntekter og najonalbudsjettet 2001

  Økonomisk forum, (1) , s. 24-30.

• Dalen, Dag Morten (2001)
  Reformer i helsesektoren - politikk og økonomisk realiteter

  ?, (1)

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2001)
  Et passende penge- og valutapolitisk regime

  Norsk økonomisk tidsskrift, 115(2) , s. 107-124.

• Sørensen, Rune J. & Dalen, Dag Morten (2001)
  Eierskap og tilknytningsformer i offentlig sektor. En diskusjon av teori og empiriske resultater i internasjonal forskning

  [Report Research]. Handelshøyskolen BI

  Vis sammendrag

  Trolig har ingen vestlige land et mer omfattende offentlig eierskap enn Norge. Staten har et betydelig eierskap innenfor tradisjonell næringsvirksomhet, i offentlig infrastruktur og i tradisjonelle offentlige sektorer, mens kommuner og fylkeskommuner eier mesteparten av de institusjoner som leverer offentlige tjenester innenfor helse, omsorg og utdanning. Formålet med denne rapporten er å gi en oversikt over omfanget av det offentlige eierskapet, å gi en oversikt over den teoretiske litteraturen om offentlig eierskap og å presentere en del av den empiriske forskningen om effekter av offentlig eierskap.

• Ytterhus, Bjarne E.; Elstad, Eyvind & Rostoft, Alice (2001)
  Samfunnsøkonomi 1

  [Textbook]. Cappelen forlag

• Clark, Derek J. & Riis, Christian (2001)
  Rank Order Tournaments and Selections

  Journal of Economics, 73(2)

• Gaasland, Ivar; Mittenzwei, Klaus, Nese, Gjermund & Senhaji, Arvid (2001)
  Dokumentasjon av JORDMOD

  [Report Research]. Samfunns- og næringslivsforskning (SNF)

  Vis sammendrag

  JORDMOD er en partiell likevektsmodell av det norske jordbruket utviklet for å kunne analysere konsekvenser av alternative utforminger av jordbrukspolitikken. På tilbudssiden har modellen 19 driftsformer som finnes i 6 størrelser og 9 regioner. Til sammen produseres 13 sluttprodukter og 8 mellomprodukter ved hjelp av innsatsfaktorer som areal, arbeidskraft, kapital, mellomprodukter og andre varer. Innenlandsk etterspørsel er representert ved lineære etterspørselsfunksjoner, mens import skjer til gitte verdensmarkedspriser. I modellen kan det knyttes subsidier til kriterier som antall dyr, antall dekar, antall årsverk og produksjon. I tillegg kan en beregne (endogent) de subsidiesatser som kreves for å oppfylle målsettinger knyttet til produksjon, arealbruk eller sysselsetting. Importvernet er modellert slik det er fastsatt i jordbruksavtalen i World Trade Organisation (tollsatser og minimumsimportkvoter). I meierisektoren er prisdiskrimineringen mellom produkter og markeder representert. Likevektsløsningen angir produksjon og faktorbruk, konsum og priser, eksport og import, subsidier og skjermingsstøtte, samt samfunnsøkonomisk overskudd, definert som summen av produsent- og konsumentoverskuddet, med fradrag av netto overføringer til jordbrukssektoren. Modellen er kalibrert med utgangspunkt i data for 1998. I forhold til tidligere modellversjoner er det tatt med flere driftsformer, som f. eks. kylling, økologisk melk, sau på innmarksbeite og produksjon av lyse kjøttslag uten eget spredeareal. Modellen fanger dermed bedre opp produksjonsmulighetene i jordbruket, også under rammebetingelser som avviker betydelig fra dagens. For øvrig er det foretatt en programmeringsmessig opprydding i modellen, slik at modellen fremstår som mer brukervennlig og oversiktlig. Rapporten viser også 4 eksempler på bruk av modellen. De to første beregningene viser ulike former for deregulering av norsk jordbruk, deriblant en avvikling av utjevningssystemet i meierisektoren, oppheving av konsesjonsregler og en sterk nedgang i støtte og importvern. De to siste beregningen forutsetter at sysselsetting og arealbruk til en viss grad skal opprettholdes, og illustrerer ulike måter å lese inn støtte på.

• Breivik, Einar; Olsson, Ulf H. & Olsson, Ulf H. (2001)
  Adding variables to improve fit: the effect of model size on fit assessment in LISREL

  Structural equation model : present and future : a festschrift in honor of Karl Jöreskog/Robert Cudeck, Stephen du Toit, Dag Sörbom (eds.), , s. 169-194.

  Vis sammendrag

  This paper focuses on the effect of model size on the performance of various fit indices in structural equation models. In particular, the paper contrasts the performance of the root mean square error of approximation index (RMSEA) and the goodness-of-fit index (GFI). RMSEA contains a parsimony adjustment whereas GFI does not. Parsimony correction has been found to work well when comparing alterntive models for the same set of variables (Mulaik, et al., 1989; Williams & Holohan, 1994). However, parsimony ratios also appear to show better overall fit when more observed and latent variables are added to the model. To investigate effects of model size, we examine the fit of models that vary with respect to the number of included variables. Different types and degrees of specification errors are also examined. The findings suggest that RMSEA tends to favor models that include more variables and constructs over models that are simpler. Similar patterns were found for other indices correcting for parsimony. GFI was found to decrease with increasing model size for models containing specification errors that involved the same method factor(s) across submodels. The results suggest that in addition to parsimony, i.e., the number of fixed parameters in relation to the number of free parameters, researchers should also consider model size, i.e.,the number of variables when assessing model fit.

• Steigum, Erling; Steigum, Erling & Thøgersen, Øystein (2001)
  Borrow and adjust: Fiscal policy and sectoral adjustment in an open economy

  [Report Research]. Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute for Economic Research

  Vis sammendrag

  The paper considers normative fiscal policy implications of sectoral adjustment consts in a two-sector model with overlapping generations. We show that despite no nominal rigidities, temporary fiscal deficits increase social welfare if adjustment costs prevent immediate sectoral reallocation of inputs. If there are no adjustment costs, the case for fiscal deficits vanishes.

• Myrtveit, Ingunn; Stensrud, Erik & Olsson, Ulf Henning (2001)
  Analysing data sets with missing data: an empirical evaluation of imputation methods and likelihood-based methods

  IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering, 27(11) , s. 999-1013.

• Rickertsen, Kyrre; Kristofersson, Dadi, Kristofersson, Dadi & Lothe, Solveig (2001)
  Effects of Health Information on Nordic Meat and Fish Demand

  [Report Research]. Norges landbrukshøgskole, Institutt for økonomi og samfunnsfa

  Vis sammendrag

  Increasing public concerns about health risks associated with dietary intakes of cholesterol are expected to have significant impacts on the demand for foods with high fat contents. This paper investigates how information about cholesterol, as measured by two newly constructed indexes based on published medical research, has affected the demand for meats (beef, chicken and pork) and fish in the Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden). To compare the effects of information across countries and over time, the demand equations for all the countries are estimated within one system, and a complete set of price and expendi-ture elasticities is estimated. Our findings suggest that health information has affected the consumption in a healthy way in all countries studied except for Denmark. We find positive effects on the demand for chicken in Finland, Norway and Sweden and for fish in Finland and Sweden. A negative effect on the demand for beef in Sweden is also found.

• Andreassen, Harald Magnus; Grauwe, Paul De, Solheim, Haakon & Thøgersen, Øystein (2001)
  Norges Bank Watch 2001. A review of inflation targeting, the Norwegian monetary regime and its institutional arrangements, and Norges Bank's actual monetary policy and communication

  [Report Research]. Handelshøyskolen BI

  Vis sammendrag

  In this report we will focus on the challenges of an inflation target. The first part of the report focuses on the possibilities and limitations in a flexible inflation targeting approach. The second part focuses on the implementation of an inflation target in Norway. The report concludes that Norges Bank has a firm and credible commitment to fulfilling the inflation target. The Bank enjoys a good communication with both the public and the financial markets. The Inflation Report, currently published three times a year, is a clear and well-written exposition of the Banks expectations and judgements and Norges Bank has demonstrated the ability to clarify its policy through articles and speech

• Thøgersen, Øystein; Grauwe, Paul De, Solheim, Haakon & Andreassen, Harald Magnus (2001)
  Assessing monetary policy in Norway

  [Report Research]. Center for Economic Studies (CES)

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2000)
  Felles mynt i Europa

  Kunne ikke finne tidsskrift Revang, Ø,

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2000)
  Borte Bra? Samfunnsøkonomiske betraktninger

  Cappelen Damm Akademisk

• Breivik, Einar; Olsson, Ulf Henning, Cudeck, Robert, Toit, Stephen du & Sørbom, Dag (2000)
  Adding Variables to improve fit: the effect of model size on fit assessment in LISRE

  Structural Equation Modeling: The Present and Future. A Festchrift in honor of Karl G. Jøreskog,

• Nygaard, Arne & Myrtveit, Ingunn (2000)
  Moral Hazard, Competition and Contract Design: Empirical Evidence from Managerial, Franchised and Entrepreneurial Businesses in Norway

  Applied Economics, 32(3) , s. 0-0.

• Dalen, Dag Morten (2000)
  Konkurranseutsetting av offentlige tjenester

  Sosialøkonomen, 54(7) , s. 23-28.

• Riis, Christian (2000)
  Klyngedannelser og økonomisk politikk

  [Report Research]. Handelshøyskolen BI

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2000)
  Vil forskjellene øke?

  skrift utgitt av LOs Samfunnspolitisk avdeling, i forbindelse med denne avdelingens 75-års jubileum,

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2000)
  Euroen og de nordiske velferdsstater

  CME Working Paper, (6)

• Dalen, Dag Morten (2000)
  Catching-up investemnet without regulatory commitment

  Journal of Regulatory Economics, 18, s. 133-150.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (2000)
  Felles mynt i Europa: Erfaringene så langt og utsiktene fremover

  Sosialøkonomen, (5) , s. 16-21.

• Dalen, Dag Morten (2000)
  Regulering og internasjonal regelverkskonkurranse

  NOU 2000:9 Konkurranseflater i finansnæringen,

• Troye, Sigurd V.; Olsson, Ulf H., Howell, Roy D. & Foss, Tron (2000)
  The Performance of ML, GLS, and WLS Estimation in Structural Equation Modeling Under Conditions of Nonnormality

  Structural Equation Modeling, 7(4) , s. 557-595.

• Clark, Derek & Riis, Christian (2000)
  The Role of Asymmetry in a Competitive Bribery Game

  Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 42

• Olsson, Ulf H.; Troye, Sigurd Villads, Foss, Tron & Howell, Roy D. (2000)
  The Performance of ML, GLS, and WLS Estimation in Structural Equation Modeling under Conditions of Misspecification and Non-normality

  Structural Equation Modeling, 7(4) , s. 557-595.

• Thøgersen, Øystein; Fehr, Hans & Sterkeby, Wenche Irén (2000)
  Social security reforms and early retirement

  [Report Research]. Institutt for samfunnsøkonomi. Norges handelshøyskole

  Vis sammendrag

  In order to stimulate labor market participation and improve the financial viability of the social security systems, many recent reform proposals in various OECD economies suggest to scale down the non-actuarial parts of the pension systems. These reforms have a flavour of increased efficiency at the costs of welfare losses for low income individuals. Investigating such a belief, we employ an overlapping generations model which features an endogenous retirement age and heterogenous individuals within generations. Based on a simple theoretical version of the model we demonstrate that high income individuals are likely to gain. The sign of the welfare effect for low income households is ambiguous because we do not know whether the effect of lower pension benefits is offset by the effect of a reduced tax-burden. Employing an extended CGE version of the model, which is calibrated to the Norwegian economy, we consider five reform proposals. It turns out that the various reforms which scale down the public non-actuarial pension system, lead to increases in the retirement age and steady-state welfare gains for all income classe

• Thøgersen, Øystein; Fehr, Hans & Sterkeby, Wenche Irén (2000)
  Social security reforms and early retirement

  [Report Research]. Norges Handelshøyskole

  Vis sammendrag

  In order to stimulate labor market participation and improve the financial viability of the social security systems, many recent reform proposals in various OECD economies suggest to scale down the non-actuarial parts of the pension systems. These reforms have a flavour of increased efficiency at the costs of welfare losses for low income individuals. Investigating such a belief, we employ an overlapping generations model which features an endogenous retirement age and heterogenous individuals within generations. Based on a simple theoretical version of the model we demonstrate that high income individuals are likely to gain. The sign of the welfare effect for low income households is ambiguous because we do not know whether the effect of lower pension benefits is offset by the effect of a reduced tax-burden. Employing an extended CGE version of the model, which is calibrated to the Norwegian economy, we consider five reform proposals. It turns out that the various reforms which scale down the public non-actuarial pension system, lead to increases in the retirement age and steady-state welfare gains for all income classes.

• Myrtveit, Ingunn & Stensrud, Erik (1999)
  A controlled Experiment to Assess the Benefits of Estimating with Analogy and Regression Models

  IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering, 25(4) , s. 510-525.

• Steigum, Erling; Isachsen, Arne Jon & Røste, Ole Bjørn (1999)
  Norsk pengepolitikk: Er et fleksibelt inflasjonsmål løsningen?

  Euroen og den norske kronens skjebne,

• Steigum, Erling (1999)
  De profesjonelle og amatørene. Noen refleksjoner omkring Populister og originale økonomer

  Sosialøkonomen, 59

• Moen, Espen (1999)
  Education, Ranking, and Competition for Jobs

  Journal of Labor Economics, vol 17, s. 694-723.

• Synnestvedt, Terje & Ytterhus, Bjarne (1999)
  Oppgaver i Makroøkonomi

  [Textbook]. Cappelen Damm Akademisk

• Ytterhus, Bjarne E.; Arnestad, Petter & Lohte, Solveig (1999)
  Environmental Initiatives in the Retailing Sector: An Analysis of Supply Chain Pressures and Partnerships

  Eco-Management and Auditing, 6, s. 181-188.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon; Andersen, T.M., Jensen, S.E. Hougaard & Risager, O. (1999)
  Comments on Niels Thygesens paper: EMU and the Outsider nations

  Macroeconomic perspectives on the Danish economy, , s. 56-60.

• Ytterhus, Bjarne (1999)
  Miljø og reiseliv: Konflikt eller samme mål?

  [Professional Article]. ?, (5)

• Grønn, Erik (1999)
  Forelesninger i Offentlig økonomi

  [Textbook]. Cappelen Damm Akademisk

• Isachsen, Arne Jon; Strøm, Steinar, Fiorentini, G. & Zamagni, S. (1999)
  The hidden economy: The labor market and tax evasion

  The economics of corruption and illegal markets. (The international library of critical writings in economics),

• Steigum, Erling (1999)
  Robert Mundells forskning i internasjonal makroøkonomi

  Sosialøkonomen, 59

• Bjønnes, Geir (1999)
  Forventningsdannelse i futuresmarkeder for råolje og oljeprodukter

  Beta – Scandinavian Journal of Business Research, (2)

• Steigum, Erling; Isachsen, Arne Jon & Røste, Ole Bjørn (1999)
  Pengepolitikk og valutakurs i fokus: Hva sier nyere forskning?

  Euroen og den norske kronens skjebne,

• Steigum, Erling; Gjersem, Carl & Auerbach, Alan J. (1999)
  Generational accounting and depletable natural resources: The case of Norway

  Generational accounting around the world,

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1999)
  Mens vi venter på euroen

  Sosialøkonomen, (7) , s. 7-9.

• Steigum, Erling (1999)
  Globalisering og kapitalflyt: Noen lærepenger for små land

  Internasjonal Politikk, 57(4) , s. 565-573.

• Lohte, Solveig; Myrtveit, Ingunn & Trapani, Teresa (1999)
  Compensation Systems for Improving Environmental Performance

  Business Strategy and the Environment (BSE), 8, s. 313-321.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1999)
  Refleksjoner om moral og marked

  [Popular Science Article]. Tidens Tegn, (6) , s. 24-28.

• Ytterhus, Bjarne (1999)
  Miljøtiltak virker positivt på lang sikt

  [Professional Article]. Miljøstrategi, (4)

• Steigum, Erling (1999)
  Har pengepolitikken vært undervurdert?

  [Professional Article]. ?, (1) , s. 9-13.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon & Moen, Espen (1999)
  Er eurotilknytning så ille? Tiden baner veien for euro i Norge

  Sosialøkonomen, (Des.)

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1999)
  Frie kapitalbevegelser - for mye av en god ting?

  Internasjonal Politikk, (4) , s. 575-582.

• Golombek, Rolf & Moen, Espen (1999)
  Er frivillige avtaler kostnadseffektive?

  Sosialøkonomen, (Des.)

• Welford, Richard; Ytterhus, Bjarne & Eligh, Jason (1999)
  Tourism and Sustainable Development: An analysis of policy and guidelines for managing provision and consumption

  Sustainable Development, 7, s. 165-177.

• Olsson, Ulf Henning; Olsson, Ulf Henning, Troye, Sigurd Villads & Howell, Roy D. (1999)
  Theoretic Fit and Empirical Fit: The Performance of Maximum Likelihood versus Generalized Least Squares Estima-tion in Structural Equation Models

  Multivariate Behavioral Research, 34(1) , s. 31-59.

• Gripsrud, Geir & Olsson, Ulf Henning (1999)
  Markedsanalyse

  [Textbook]. Cappelen Damm Høyskoleforlaget

• Isachsen, Arne Jon & Røste, Ole Bjørn (1999)
  Euroen og den norske kronens skjebne

  Fagbokforlaget

• Bay, Ann-Helén; Hagen, Kåre, Riis, Christian & Sørensen, Rune (1999)
  Konkurranseutsetting av velferds-staten? Konsekvenser av anbudskonkurranser og fritt forbrukervalg

  [Report Research]. Handelshøyskolen BI

• Riis, Christian & Clark, Derek (1998)
  Influence and the Discretionary Allocation of Several Prizes

  European Journal of Political Economy, 14(4)

• Ytterhus, Bjarne E.; Welford, Richard & Young, W (1998)
  Towards Sustainable Production and Consumption: A literature Review and Conseptual Model for the Sevice Sector

  Eco-Management and Auditing, (1)

• Moen, Espen R. (1998)
  Efficient Ways to Finance Human Capital Investments

  Economica, 65, s. 491-505.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1998)
  Look to England?

  [Professional Article]. Sosialøkonomen, (4) , s. 2-4.

• Ytterhus, Bjarne E. & Wæhle, Kjetil (1998)
  Grønne bedrifter er lønnsomme

  [Popular Science Article]. Miljøstrategi, (4)

• Grønn, Erik (1998)
  Samfunnsøkonomi

  [Textbook]. Cappelen Damm Akademisk

• Vestøl, Jon Åge (1998)
  Miljøeffektive innkjøp

  [Report Research]. BI

• Grønn, Erik (1998)
  Mikroøkonomi

  [Textbook]. Cappelen Damm Akademisk

• Moen, Espen R. & Riis, Christian (1998)
  Investeringer i kunnskap

  Markeder, ressurser og fordeling,

• Riis, Christian & Clark, Derek (1998)
  Competition Over More Than One Prize

  ?, 88(1)

• Ytterhus, Bjarne E.; Welford, Richard, Young, W. & Rome, N. (1998)
  Towards Sustainable Production and Consumption

  Sustainable Strategies for Business,

• Riis, Christian & Rødseth, Asbjørn (1998)
  Markeder, ressurser og fordeling

  Gyldendal Akademisk

• Dalen, Dag Morten (1998)
  Yardstick competition and investment incentives

  ?, (1)

• Riis, Christian & Clark, Derek (1998)
  Contest Success Functions: An Extension

  Economic Theory, 11(1)

• Synnestvedt, Terje & Grønn, Erik (1998)
  Offentlig økonomi: Studieguide

  [Report Research]. BI fjernundervisning

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1998)
  Euroen kommer - hva gjør landene i Norden

  [Professional Article]. Sosialøkonomen, (9) , s. 14-18.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1998)
  Norge og felles mynt i Europa

  ØMU og pengepolitikk i Norden,

• Grønn, Erik & Synnestvedt, Terje (1998)
  Oppgaver i Offentlig økonomi

  [Textbook]. Cappelen Damm Akademisk

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1998)
  Den økonomiske krisen i Asia

  Internasjonal Politikk, , s. 179-195.

• Ytterhus, Bjarne E. & Welford, Richard (1998)
  Conditions for the Transformation of Eco-Tourism into Sustainable Tourism

  European Environment, (8)

• Bjønnes, Geir Høidal; Isachsen, Arne Jon & Stoknes, Svein (1998)
  Den store gjettekonkurransen

  ?, (11)

• Synnestvedt, Terje & Vestøl, Jon Åge (1998)
  Offentlige virkemidler for styrking av bedriftens HMS-arbeid

  [Report Research]. BI

• Myrtveit, Ingunn & Torsvik, G. (1998)
  Information Problens and Organization of the Norwegian Gasoline Market

  Informasjonsproblem og økonomisk organisering,

• Myrtveit, Ingunn & Nygaard, Arne (1998)
  Kontrollkostnader, konkurranseforhold og valg av ulike lederkontrakter

  Beta – Scandinavian Journal of Business Research, (1)

• Olsson, Ulf Henning; Foss, Tron & Troye, Sigurd V. (1998)
  The Performance of alternate estimation methods in Structural Equation Modeling under conditions of misspecification and non-normality

  [Report Research]. Handelshøyskolen BI

• Riis, Christian & Clark, Derek John (1998)
  Clark, Derek J., and Christian Riis. "Competition over more than one prize." The American Economic Review 88.1 (1998): 276-289

  The American Economic Review, 88(1) , s. 276-289.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1997)
  Kapitalisme, marked og verdier

  [Professional Article]. Tidens Tegn, (4)

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1997)
  The Swedish model under stress: A view from the stands

  SNS förlag

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1997)
  Euroen som pengeenhet i Norge?

  [Professional Article]. Praktisk økonomi og ledelse, (3)

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1997)
  Tre dager i Singapore

  [Professional Article]. Tidens Tegn, (2)

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1996)
  Norsk økonomi: Erfaringer og nye spenninger i den økonomiske politikken

  [Report Research]. Sundal Collier & Co a.s.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1996)
  Ord om olje

  Sosialøkonomen, (11)

• Olsson, Ulf H.; Heide, Morten & Engeset, Marit Gundersen (1996)
  Hotel Guest Satisfaction among Business Travelers

  The Cornell Hotel and Restaurant Administration Quarterly, , s. 72-81.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1995)
  NOU 1995:11 Statsbankene under endrede rammevilkår

  Sosialøkonomen, (7/8)

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1995)
  Oljefond, renter og valutakurs

  Sosialøkonomen, (6)

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1995)
  Noen kommentarer til Nasjonalbudsjettet for 1996

  Sosialøkonomen, (10)

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1995)
  Monetært samarbeid i Europa - hva gjør Norge?

  Den europeiske utfordringen,

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1995)
  Om økonomisk politikk og økonomisk teori

  Sosialøkonomen, (1)

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1994)
  Hvordan EMS har fungert politisk

  Sosialøkonomen, (6)

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1994)
  Felles mynt i Europa? Økonomiske og politiske vurderinger

  Bedriftsøkonomens Forlag

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1994)
  Om valutapolitikk

  Praktisk økonomi og ledelse, (1) , s. 13-29.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1994)
  Norge og EUs monetære union

  Sosialøkonomen, (9)

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1994)
  Utsiktene for norsk næringsliv

  Internasjonal Politikk, (2) , s. 249-262.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1993)
  Økonomi - På godt norsk

  Universitetsforlaget

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1993)
  Norsk valutapolitikk - Hvilke alternativer har vi å velge i mellom?

  Sosialøkonomen, (11)

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1992)
  Marshall-hjelp til Samveldet av Uavhengige Stater (SUS)

  Sosialøkonomen, (4)

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1992)
  Norsk økonomi - en vei ut av krisen

  Andersen & Butenschøn

• Isachsen, Arne Jon; Hamilton, Carl & Gylfason, Thorvaldur (1992)
  Understanding the market economy

  Journal of World Trade, (5) , s. 25-33.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon; Hamilton, Carl & Gylfason, Thorvaldur (1992)
  Omstilling til marked - økonomiske utfordringer

  Universitetsforlaget

• Isachsen, Arne Jon; Gylfason, Thorvaldur & Hamilton, Carl (1992)
  Planøkonomi - hvordan fungerer systemet?

  Nordisk Østforum, (2) , s. 51-61.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1992)
  Individ og marked

  Internasjonal Politikk, (3)

• Isachsen, Arne Jon; Hamilton, Carl & Gylfason, Thorvaldur (1992)
  Understanding the market economy

  Oxford University Press

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1991)
  Svingende valutakurser og "economic fundementals" - og litt til

  Ni artikler om penger, kreditt og valuta,

• Isachsen, Arne Jon & Heier, Dag Erik (1991)
  Om rentepolitikk

  Norsk Økonomisk Tidsskrift, (105) , s. 97-116.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon & Hamilton, Carl (1991)
  Privatisering i Østeuropa - en lagmäld analys

  [Professional Article]. Ekonomisk Debatt, (5) , s. 405-415.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon & Hamilton, Carl (1991)
  Over til markedsøkonomi

  Norsk Økonomisk Tidsskrift, (2) , s. 164-173.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1991)
  Ni artikler om penger, kreditt og valuta

  Universitetsforlaget

• Bøhren, Øyvind & Isachsen, Arne Jon (1991)
  Forsker og forretningsmann: En verdiskapende allianse

  [Popular Science Article]. Praktisk økonomi og ledelse, 7(3) , s. 115-122.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon; Haavi, Stein Erik, Hansen, Jarle & Stenseth, Geir (1991)
  Om rentens terminstruktur

  Ni artikler om penger, kreditt og valuta,

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1990)
  Polsk økonomi - fra plan til marked

  Sosialøkonomen, (7-8)

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1990)
  Economic Cooperation with Eastern Europe

  [Report Research]. Elcon Securities A.S

• Isachsen, Arne Jon & Sando, Carl Erik (1989)
  Om pengemengdevekst og innenlandsk kredittilførsel

  [Report Research]. Elcon Securities A.S

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1989)
  EMS og/eller en sterkere sentralbank

  [Report Research]. Elcon Securities A.S

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1989)
  Hvor mye politikk tåler økonomien

  [Report Research]. Elcon Securities A.S

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1989)
  Økonomisk samarbeid med Øst-Europa

  Nytt Norsk Tidsskrift (NNT), (3) , s. 257-268.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1989)
  Om Polens utfordringer. Et forsøk på en helhetlig skisse

  [Professional Article]. Bedriftsøkonomisk Institutt Arbeidsnotat, 89(28)

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1989)
  Den vanskelige skatten

  Nytt Norsk Tidsskrift (NNT), (2) , s. 180-185.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1989)
  Penger og kreditt i en omstillingstid

  Sosialøkonomen, (3)

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1989)
  Mer enn to måter å bedre konkurranseevnen på

  Sosialøkonomen, (6)

• Isachsen, Arne Jon & Stenseth, Geir (1989)
  Lån i valuta - muligheter og farer

  [Report Research]. Elcon Securities A.S

• Isachsen, Arne Jon & Sando, Carl Erik (1988)
  Sertifikatmarkedet i Norge

  [Report Research]. Elcon Securities A.S

• Isachsen, Arne Jon; Hobbesland, Ove & Sando, Carl Erik (1988)
  Obligasjonsteori i tilknytning til Beta-plan

  [Report Research]. Elcon Securities A.S

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1988)
  Realrenten i Norge i et hundreårsperspektiv

  Bergen Bank Kvartalsskrift, (2) , s. 35-44.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1988)
  Den store amerikanske skattereformen - og vår

  Bergen Bank Kvartalsskrift, (4) , s. 85-90.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon & Strompdal, Ivar (1988)
  Produktutvikling i finansmarkedene - finansielle innovasjoner i USA og Norge

  Tano

• Hansen, Jarle; Isachsen, Arne Jon, Sando, Carl Erik & Stenseth, Geir (1988)
  Nasjonalbudsjettet for 1989

  [Report Research]. Elcon Securities A.S

• Isachsen, Arne Jon & Stenseth, Geir (1988)
  En analyse av de 6 største realkredittforetakene i Norge

  [Report Research]. Elcon Securities A.S

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1987)
  Finansielle innovasjoner - private- og samfunnsøkonomiske utfordringer

  Praktisk Økonomi & Finans, (3) , s. 6-18.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon & Sando, Carl Erik (1987)
  Norske prognoser - hvor gode er de?

  Sosialøkonomen, (10)

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1987)
  Stabiliseringspolitikk i små åpne økonomier

  [Professional Article]. Nordiska Ministerrådets Skriftserie, (55) , s. 10-28.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1987)
  Om rente- og valutakursutviklingen

  [Professional Article]. Bedriftsøkonomisk Institutt Arbeidsnotat, 87(7)

• Isachsen, Arne Jon & Andersen, Svein S (1987)
  Oljepris og sårbarhet i vår lille forhandlingsøkonomi

  Nytt Norsk Tidsskrift (NNT), (4) , s. 27-38.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon; Mørk, Kari Anne & Rasmussen, Jan (1986)
  Gamle obligasjoner med lav kupongrente er for billige

  Sosialøkonomen, (10)

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1986)
  Finansielle innovasjoner, ressursallokering og økonomisk styring

  Sosialøkonomen, (8)

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1986)
  Ønsker vi en selvstendig penge- og kredittpolitikk?

  Sosialøkonomen, (3)

• Isachsen, Arne Jon & Sand, Ole C (1985)
  Kurvlån - en ny måte å redusere valutarisiko på

  Bergen Bank Kvartalsskrift, (2) , s. 79-94.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1985)
  Om stabilisering av valutakursene

  Bergen Bank Kvartalsskrift, (3) , s. 68-75.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon; Strøm, Steinar & Samuelson, Svein Ove (1985)
  The Behavior of Tax Evaders

  The Economics of the Shadow Economy, , s. 227-244.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1984)
  Om revisjon av valutareguleringen

  Sosialøkonomen, (3)

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1984)
  Penger, kreditt og valuta - En artikkelsamling

  Universitetsforlaget

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1984)
  Ti år med flytende valutakurser

  Bergen Bank Kvartalsskrift, (1)

• Isachsen, Arne Jon & Strøm, Steinar (1984)
  The Size and Growth of the Hidden Economy in Norway

  The Review of Income and Wealth, , s. 21-38.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon & Strøm, Steinar (1984)
  Technical Change, Unemployment and Inflasjon

  [Professional Article]. Bedriftsøkonomisk Institutt Arbeidsnotat, 84(5)

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1983)
  A Quarterly Wage and Price model

  Norges banks skriftserie, (11)

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1983)
  Norwegian Policy in the Past Decade and Some thoughts on Policy in the Present One

  International Economic Adjustment - Small Countries and the European Monetary System, , s. 49-64.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1983)
  Eurodollarmarkedet og monetarismen

  Penger og kreditt, (3)

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1983)
  Hvorfor monetarismen blir for enkel

  Bedriftsøkonomens Forlag

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1983)
  Inntektsfordeling og inflasjon

  Arbeidsnotat (Norges bank : trykt utg.),

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1982)
  En lønns- og prismodell for Norge. Nærmere om prisrelasjonen.

  Arbeidsnotat (Norges bank : trykt utg.),

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1982)
  Bruk av modeller i planleggingen

  Sosialøkonomen, (7)

• Isachsen, Arne Jon & Kjær, Knut N. (1982)
  Prisstopp mot inflasjon

  Statsøkonomisk tidsskrift,

• Isachsen, Arne Jon & Johansen, Knut Eggum (1982)
  Hva vet vi om inflasjon?

  Gyldendal Norsk Forlag A/S

• Isachsen, Arne Jon & Strøm, Steinar (1982)
  Dynamisk skattepolitikk og strategier mot svart arbeid

  Bergen Bank Kvartalsskrift, (2) , s. 75-88.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon & Klovland, Jan Tore (1982)
  Pengemengde og inflasjon - hvordan gikk det?

  Sosialøkonomen, (1)

• Isachsen, Arne Jon; Kjær, Knut N. & Raaum, Oddbjørn (1982)
  Dokumentasjon av lønns- og prismodell

  Arbeidsnotat (Norges bank : trykt utg.),

• Isachsen, Arne Jon & Raaum, Oddbjørn (1982)
  Solidarisk lønnspolitikk - hvor effektiv er den egentlig

  Arbeidsnotat (Norges bank : trykt utg.),

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1981)
  Innføring i U-landsøkonomi

  Universitetsforlaget

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1981)
  Målkonflikter i velferdssamfunnet

  Myter i norsk politikk, , s. 106-118.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1981)
  Den skjulte økonomi og det svarte arbeidsmarked

  Sysselsettingen i søkelyset, , s. 166-182.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1981)
  Olje, risiko og valuta

  Norges banks skriftserie,

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1981)
  Milton Friedmans økonomiske teorier

  Høyrebølgen - epokeskifte i norsk politikk?, , s. 365-374.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon & Strøm, Steinar (1981)
  Skatt, inflasjon, arbeid og unndragelser

  Høyrebølgen - epokeskifte i norsk politikk?, , s. 355-364.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon & Strøm, Steinar (1981)
  Skattefritt - svart sektor i vekst

  Universitetsforlaget

• Isachsen, Arne Jon & Braaten, Nils Axel (1980)
  Om produktivitetsutviklingen

  Forskningsrapport (Norsk utenrikspolitisk institutt), (178)

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1980)
  Norsk valutapolitikk

  Forskningsrapport (Norsk utenrikspolitisk institutt), (175)

• Isachsen, Arne Jon & Hoff, Per Trygve (1980)
  Norges betalingsbalanse siden 1946: Kredittverdighet. Marshall-hjelp. U-hjelp

  [Report Research]. Norsk Utenrikspolitisk Institutt

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1980)
  Økonomiske betraktninger omkring den nye økonomiske verdensordning

  Statsøkonomisk tidsskrift, (2) , s. 119-140.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1980)
  Norsk valutapolitikk og fremtidig kapitaleksport

  Bergen Bank Kvartalsskrift, (3) , s. 101-111.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1980)
  Importsubstitusjon eller eksportbasert vekst?

  Internasjonal Politikk, , s. 341-359.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon & Lia, Per Olaf (1980)
  Prisstabilisering gjennom råvarefond

  Sosialøkonomen, (5)

• Isachsen, Arne Jon & Strøm, Steinar (1980)
  The Hidden Economy: The Labor Market and Tax Evation

  The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 82, s. 304-311.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon & Klovland, Jan Tore (1980)
  Pengemengde og inflasjon

  Sosialøkonomen, (2)

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1979)
  U-landenes syn på ny økonomisk verdensordning

  Forskningsrapport (Norsk utenrikspolitisk institutt), (163)

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1979)
  Penger og inflasjon i Sovjet

  Internasjonal Politikk, (4) , s. 649-667.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1979)
  Kursjustering som økonomisk virkemiddel

  Statsøkonomisk tidsskrift, (2) , s. 93-115.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1979)
  Det internasjonal stålmarked - mot regional selvforsyning?

  Internasjonal Politikk, (1) , s. 49-70.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1979)
  Om kredittbudsjett og interbankmarkedet

  Sosialøkonomen, (8)

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1979)
  Kredittpolitikken under omlegging

  [Professional Article]. Magma forskning og viten, (8)

• Isachsen, Arne Jon & Hoel, Michael Olaf (1979)
  Bensinrasjonering

  Sosialøkonomen, (9)

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1978)
  International Reserves and Commodity Price Stabilisation

  [Report Research]. Norsk Utenrikspolitisk Institutt

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1978)
  The Role of SDRs

  [Report Research]. Norsk Utenrikspolitisk Institutt

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1978)
  Seigniorage og inflasjonsskatt

  Sosialøkonomen, (5)

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1978)
  Om etterspørselen etter penger - og litt mer

  Sosialøkonomen, (2)

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1978)
  Inntektspolitikk og inflasjon i Norge

  Ekonomisk Debatt, (1) , s. 26-34.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1978)
  Om lønnsglidning

  Sosialøkonomen, (3)

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1978)
  U-landene og valg av valutasystem

  [Report Research]. Norsk Utenrikspolitisk Institutt

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1978)
  Om markedsmekanismen - et forsøk på klargjøring

  [Report Research]. Norsk Utenrikspolitisk Institutt

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1978)
  Transmisjonsmekanismen, eller hvordan pengepolitikk virker på realøkonomien

  Statsøkonomisk tidsskrift, (2) , s. 51-76.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1977)
  Noen temaer i norsk penge- og valutapolitikk

  Sosialøkonomen, (8) , s. 2-5.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1977)
  Discussant on Jonung's Paper, The Long Run Demand for Money - A Wicksellian Approach

  [Report Research]. Oslo Institute of Economics

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1977)
  Norsk penge- og valutapolitikk i stpøeskjeen

  Internasjonal Politikk, , s. 505-527.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1977)
  Inflasjon - et uløselig problem?

  Tanum-Norli A/S

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1977)
  Inflasjon i 1970-årene

  Bergen Bank Kvartalsskrift,

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1977)
  Sosialøkonomistudiet i USA

  Sosialøkonomen, (3)

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1977)
  A Note on Wages Drift. The Case of Sweden

  The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 79

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1977)
  Jevnere råvarepriser?

  Samtiden,

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1977)
  Norges handel med u-land - en analyse og et forslag

  Internasjonal Politikk, , s. 425-448.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1976)
  A note on Price, Stabilization Schemes, and the Terms of Trade

  Memorandum from Department of Economics, University of Oslo,

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1976)
  Milton Friedman som økonom

  Observator,

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1976)
  The Demand for Money in Norway

  Norges banks skriftserie, (3)

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1976)
  Økonomi og politikk i India

  Internasjonal Politikk, , s. 923-940.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1976)
  Lønnsglidningshypoteser: En test med norske data

  Sosialøkonomen, (5)

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1976)
  Notes on Inflation and Optimal Monetary Policy

  Memorandum from Department of Economics, University of Oslo,

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1976)
  Etterspørselen etter penger i Norge

  Statsøkonomisk tidsskrift, , s. 35-45.

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1975)
  The Wages Drift Hypothesis: A Test with Norwegian Data

  [Report Research]. Stanford University, Center for Research in Economic Growth

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1973)
  The Uneasy Case for the Fischer-effect

  Sosialøkonomen, (8)

• Isachsen, Arne Jon (1973)
  The multinational enterprise and economic theory

  Sosialøkonomen, (7)