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Sørensen, Rune Jørgen & Geys, Benny
(2025)
The Causal Effect of Affluence on Voter Turnout: New Evidence from Lottery Winnings
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Bensi, Manuel; Ingrosso, Gianmarco, Langone, Leonardo, Giordano, Patrizia, Inall, Mark, Mano, Beatriz, Sundfjord, Arild, Bailey, Allison Michelle, Foss, Øyvind, Daase, Malin Hildegard Elisabeth, Castro de la Guardia, Laura, Nilsen, Frank, David T, Divya, Renner, Angelika, Dumont, Estelle, Glowacki, Oskar, Ogg, Franziska, Olsen, Helene, Dølven, Knut Ola, Jones, Eleanor, Ferré, Benedicte, Skogseth, Ragnheid, Moskalik, Mateusz, Korhonen, Meri, Vogedes, Daniel Ludwig, Kovacevic, Vedrana & Paladini de Mendoza, Francesco
(2025)
The Atlantification process in Svalbard: a broad view from the SIOS Marine Infrastructure network (ARiS)
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Gundersen, Thomas Størdal; Quaghebeur, Ewoud & Tretvoll, Håkon
(2025)
Koronapandemien i en makroøkonomisk modell
Samfunnsøkonomen, 1, p. 37-55.
Vis sammendrag
De store variasjonene i viktige økonomiske størrelser under koronapandemien utgjør en utfordring for modeller som tallfestes på historiske tidsserier. I denne artikkelen presenterer vi en pragmatisk løsning på hvordan pandemiperioden kan håndteres i en DSGE-modell for norsk økonomi. Vi introduserer sjokk i den makroøkonomiske modellen NORA som kun får være aktive i pandemiårene. Med denne tilnærmingen kan vi analysere de relative bidragene fra ulike drivere av svingninger i økonomisk aktivitet under pandemien. Vi viser at å ikke ta hensyn til pandemispesifikke sjokk kan lede til en feilvurdering av de økonomiske konsekvensene av innretningen av finanspolitikken. Dette gjør vi ved å se på hvordan en permanent økning i merverdiavgiftssatsen slår ut i økonomisk aktivitet. I en modell uten pandemispesifikke sjokk undervurderes den økonomiske kostnaden med en faktor på fire.
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Brekke, Kurt Richard; Dalen, Dag Morten & Straume, Odd Rune
(2025)
Taking the competitor’s pill: When combination therapies enter pharmaceutical markets
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Grindaker, Morten Haabeth; Kostøl, Andreas Ravndal & Roszbach, Kasper
(2025)
Make it or Break it: Corporate Bankruptcy and Management Careers
Working Paper, Norges Bank.
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Bechtold, Florian & Harang, Fabian Andsem
(2025)
Pathwise regularization by noise for semilinear SPDEs driven by a multiplicative cylindrical Brownian motion
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Boon, Wietse; Holmen, Daniel Førland, Nordbotten, Jan Martin & Vatne, Jon Eivind
(2025)
The Hodge-Laplacian on the Čech-de Rham complex governs coupled problems
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Galaasen, Sigurd; Kostøl, Andreas Ravndal, Monras, Joan & Vogel, Jonathan
(2025)
The Labor Supply Curve is Upward Sloping: The Labor Market Effects of Immigrant-Induced Demand Shocks
NBER Working Paper Series.
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Diehl, Joscha; Ebrahimi-Fard, Kurusch, Harang, Fabian Andsem & Tindel, Samy
(2025)
On the Signature of an Image
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Broer, Tobias; Druedahl, Jeppe, Harmenberg, Karl & Öberg, Erik
(2025)
The Unemployment-Risk Channel in Business-Cycle Fluctuations
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Fagereng, Andreas; Gomez, Matthieu, Gouin-Bonenfant, Emilien, Holm, Martin Blomhoff, Moll, Benjamin & Natvik, Gisle James
(2025)
Asset-Price Redistribution
Vis sammendrag
Asset valuations across many asset classes have increased substantially over the last several decades. While these rising valuations had important effects on the distribution of wealth, little is known regarding their redistributive effects in terms of welfare. To make progress on this question, we develop a sufficient statistic for the money-metric welfare gain of deviations in asset valuations. This welfare gain depends on the present value of an individual’s net asset sales rather than asset holdings: higher asset valuations benefit prospective sellers and harm prospective buyers. We estimate this quantity using panel microdata covering the universe of financial transactions in Norway from 1994 to 2019. We further demonstrate how to adapt our baseline statistic to account for important considerations, such as incomplete markets and collateral constraints. We find that the rise in asset valuations had large redistributive effects: it redistributed from the young to the old and from the poor to the wealthy.
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Knutsen, Magnus Våge
(2025)
Endogenous Prices in Markets with Reputational Concerns
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Maurseth, Per Botolf; Masso, Jaan & Holmen, Rasmus Bøgh
(2025)
FDI and trade for foreign market entry: theory and evidence from Estonia
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Kroken, Vibeke; Murdoch, Zuzana & Geys, Benny Frans Amelia
(2025)
Time tactics in public administration: evidence from a survey experiment
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Mysliwski, Mateusz; Sanches, Fabio Miessi, Junior, Daniel Silva & Srisuma, Sorawoot
(2025)
The Welfare Effects of Supply and Demand Frictions in a Dynamic Pricing Game
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Mysliwski, Mateusz; Rostom, May, Sanches, Fabio Miessi, Junior, Daniel Silva & Srisuma, Sorawoot
(2025)
Identification and estimation of a search model with heterogeneous consumers and firms
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Stauskas, Ovidijus & Sucarrat, Genaro
(2025)
Testing the zero-process of intraday financial returns for non-stationary periodicity
Vis sammendrag
Recent studies show that the zero-process of observed intraday financial returns is frequently characterized by non-stationary periodicity. As liquidity varies across the trading day, not only does unconditional volatility change, but also the unconditional zero-probability. While scaling returns by the time-varying intraday volatility may stabilize volatility, it does not make the zero-process of scaled returns stationary. This invalidates standard methods of risk estimation, and recent studies document that the use of such invalid methods can have major effects on risk estimates. Formal tests for non-stationary periodicity in the zero-process can therefore be of great value in guiding the choice of a suitable risk estimation procedure. Despite this, little attention has been devoted to the derivation of such tests. Here, we help filling this gap by developing user-friendly yet flexible and powerful tests that hold under mild assumptions. Next, our empirical study reveals that intraday financial returns are widely characterized by non-stationary periodicity in the zero-process. This has important and potentially wide-ranging implications for future research.
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Evensen, Charlotte Bjørnhaug; Foros, Øystein, Haugen, Atle & Kind, Hans Jarle
(2025)
Size-Based Wholesale Price Discrimination With Ex-Ante Investments Into Alternative Sourcing
Vis sammendrag
If a retailer invests in alternative sourcing for a product otherwise provided by a dominant supplier, it may gain leverage to pressure the supplier into lowering the wholesale price (bargaining effect). The reduced wholesale price, in turn, strengthens the retailer's competitive position, enabling it to capture additional market shares (business-stealing effect). To counter the latter effect, and thus reduce the retailer's incentive to invest in alternative sourcing, the supplier might commit to uniform wholesale pricing. However, we demonstrate that this strategy is unprofitable when retailers are sufficiently differentiated. Instead, if retailers differ in size, supplier profitability is maximized through size-based price discrimination. This might harm consumers. Interestingly, when substitutability is at an intermediate level, supplier and consumer preferences align.
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Kinnerud, Karin
(2025)
The effects of monetary policy through housing and mortgage choices on aggregate demand
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Hjort, Anders Dahl; Hermansen, Gudmund Horn, Pensar, Johan & Williams, Jonathan P.
(2024)
Uncertainty quantification in automated valuation models with locally weighted conformal prediction
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Heggedal, Tom-Reiel & McKay, Thomas
(2024)
Discounting in finite-time bargaining experiments
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Grønneberg, Steffen & Irmer, Julien
(2024)
Non-parametric Regression Among Factor Scores: Motivation and Diagnostics for Nonlinear Structural Equation Models
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Straume, Hans-Martin
(2024)
Buyers in Norwegian salmon exports: Structure and trade margins
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Cox, Gary W.; Fiva, Jon H. & King, Max-Emil Mohn
(2024)
Bound by Borders: Voter Mobilization Through Social Networks
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Vantaggiato, Francesca P.; Murdoch, Zuzana, Kassim, Hussein, Geys, Benny & Connolly, Sara Jane
(2024)
Intraorganizational mobility and employees’ work-related contact patterns: evidence from panel data in the European Commission
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Foldnes, Njål; Moss, Jonas & Grønneberg, Steffen
(2024)
Improved Goodness of Fit Procedures for Structural Equation Models
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Fiva, Jon H. & Nedregård, Oda
(2024)
How Does Party Discipline Affect Legislative Behavior? Evidence from Within-Term Variation in Lame-Duck Status
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Canova, Fabio
(2024)
Should we trust cross sectional multiplier estimates?
Vis sammendrag
I examine the properties of cross-sectional estimators of multipliers, elasticities, or pass-throughs when a conventional spatial macroeconomic specification generates the data. A number of important biases plague standard estimates; the most relevant one occurs when the units display heterogeneous dynamics. Methods that work well in this situation are suggested. An experimental setting shows the magnitude of the biases cross-sectional estimators display. Average estimates of local fiscal multipliers in the US states are compared and contrasted.
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Schönhage, Nanna Lauritz & Geys, Benny
(2024)
Partisanship, blame avoidance behaviours and voter reactions to allegations of political misconduct
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Fagereng, Andreas; Onshuus, Helene & Torstensen, Kjersti Næss
(2024)
The consumption expenditure response to unemployment: Evidence from Norwegian households
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Fiva, Jon H.; Izzo, Federica & Tukiainen, Janne
(2024)
The gatekeeper's dilemma: Political selection or team effort
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Canova, Fabio
(2024)
FAQ: how do I estimate the output gap?
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Stauskas, Ovidijus & De Vos, Ignace
(2024)
Handling Distinct Correlated Effects with CCE
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Canova, Fabio & Pappa, Evi
(2024)
The macroeconomic effects of EU regional structural funds
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Geys, Benny; Lægreid, Per, Murdoch, Zuzana & Yackee, Susan Webb
(2024)
I’m a Survivor: Political Dynamics in Bureaucratic Elites’ Partisan Identification
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Mehlum, Halvor; Natvik, Gisle James & Torvik, Ragnar
(2024)
The impossible trinity: Competitive markets, free entry, and efficiency
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Asche, Frank; Landazuri Concha, Ursula Alejandra, Øglend, Atle, Santika, Nita & Straume, Hans-Martin
(2024)
Spillover effects from agglomeration in seafood exports
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Galle, Simon & Lorentzen, Linnea
(2024)
The unequal effects of trade and automation across local labor markets
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Foldnes, Njål; Uppstad, Per Henning, Grønneberg, Steffen & Thomson, Jenny
(2024)
School entry detection of struggling readers using gameplay data and machine learning
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Bhuller, Manudeep & Sigstad, Henrik
(2024)
Feedback and Learning: The Causal Effects of Reversals on Judicial Decision-Making
Vis sammendrag
Do judges respond to reversals of their decisions? Using random assignment of cases across two stages of the criminal justice system in Norway and a novel dataset linking trial court decisions to reversals in appeals courts, we provide causal evidence on feedback effects in judicial decision-making. By exploiting differences in the tendencies of randomly assigned appeal panels to reverse trial court decisions, we show that trial court judges who receive a reversal of a sentence respond by updating the likelihood of imposing a prison sentence in the direction of the reversal in future cases. Consistent with a Bayesian learning model, we find that the responses are stronger for judges with weaker priors and for reversals corresponding to stronger signals. Our estimates, however, also indicate that judges overreact to reversals compared to Bayes’ rule.
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Korotov, Sergey & Vatne, Jon Eivind
(2024)
Conforming simplicial partitions of product-decomposed polytopes
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Godøy, Anna Aasen; Haaland, Venke Furre, Huitfeldt, Ingrid Marie Schaumburg & Votruba, Mark E
(2024)
Hospital Queues, Patient Health, and Labor Supply
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Santika, Nita; Oglend, Atle, Straume, Hans-Martin & Asche, Frank
(2024)
Brexsea Trade and Uncertainty: Impact of Brexit on Seafood Exports
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Oglend, Atle; Asche, Frank & Straume, Hans-Martin
(2024)
Crisis averted: Cross-market reallocation during the great trade collapse
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Oglend, Atle; Asche, Frank & Straume, Hans-Martin
(2024)
Rent formation and distortions due to quotas in biological production processes
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Ɖorđević, Jasmina & Dahl, Kristina Rognlien
(2024)
Stochastic optimal control of pre-exposure prophylaxis for HIV infection for a jump model
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Sørensen, Rune Jørgen
(2024)
Are politicians more generous? Evidence from charitable giving
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Campos-Martins, Susana & Sucarrat, Genaro
(2024)
Modeling Nonstationary Financial Volatility with the R Package tvgarch
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Aastveit, Knut Are; Fastbø, Tuva Marie, Granziera, Eleonora, Paulsen, Kenneth Sæterhagen & Torstensen, Kjersti Næss
(2024)
Nowcasting Norwegian household consumption with debit card transaction data
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Hamang, Jonas Hveding
(2024)
Economic development and known natural resource endowment: Discovery rate differentials of oil
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Gola, Pawel
(2024)
On the Importance of Social Status for Occupational Sorting
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Cross, Jamie; Hoogerheide, Lennart, Labonne, Paul & van Dijk, Herman K.
(2024)
Bayesian mode inference for discrete distributions in economics and finance
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Fjære-Lindkjenn, Jeanette; Aastveit, Knut Are, Karlman, Markus Johan, Kinnerud, Karin, Juelsrud, Ragnar Enger & Wold, Ella Getz
(2024)
Hvordan virker utlånsforskriften? En oppsummering av forskningslitteraturen
Samfunnsøkonomen.
Vis sammendrag
I denne artikkelen forsøker vi å svare på om utlånsforskriften har virket etter hensikten og hvilke kostnader den påfører husholdningene. Forskningslitteraturen indikerer at boliglånsregulering bidrar til noe lavere gjelds- og boligprisvekst, men at det er mer usikkert om den reduserer husholdningenes sårbarhet for uforutsette hendelser som renteøkninger og arbeidsledighet. Utlånsforskriften påfører samtidig mange husholdninger kostnader ved at den begrenser muligheten for konsumglatting og kan gjøre det vanskeligere for unge å kjøpe sin første bolig. Reguleringen kan også forsterke viktigheten av formuende foreldre for muligheten til boligkjøp. Høy inflasjon og rente kan redusere behovet for forskriften og øke kostnadene.
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Labonne, Paul
(2024)
Asymmetric uncertainty: Nowcasting using skewness in real-time data
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Schröder, Maximilian
(2024)
Probabilistic Quantile Factor Analysis
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Bacher, Annika
(2024)
The Gender Investment Gap over the Life Cycle
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Ile, Runar
(2024)
Versality for pairs
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Bhuller, Manudeep & Sigstad, Henrik
(2024)
2SLS with multiple treatments
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Korotov, Sergey & Vatne, Jon Eivind
(2024)
On dihedral angle sums and number of facets for product polytopes
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De Vos, Ignace & Stauskas, Ovidijus
(2024)
Cross-section Bootstrap for CCE regressions
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Bjørnland, Hilde C & Zhulanova Skretting, Julia
(2024)
The shale oil boom and the US economy: Spillovers and time-varying effects
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Schröder, Maximilian
(2024)
Monitoring multi-country macroeconomic risk: A quantile factor-augmented vector autoregressive (QFAVAR) approach
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Bacher, Annika; Grübener, Philipp & Nord, Lukas
(2024)
Joint search over the life cycle
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Geys, Benny & Sørensen, Rune Jørgen
(2024)
Transitory Income Windfalls and Charitable Giving: Evidence from Norwegian Register Data, 1993–2021
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Grindaker, Morten Haabeth; Merkle, Matthew & Kostøl, Andreas Ravndal
(2024)
Corporate Bankruptcy and Labor Market Insuranc
IZA Discussion Papers.
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Berger, David; Herkenhoff, Kyle, Kostøl, Andreas Ravndal & Mongey, Simon
(2024)
An Anatomy of Monopsony: Search Frictions, Amenities, and Bargaining in Concentrated Markets
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Røed Larsen, Erling
(2023)
House price seasonality, market activity, and the December discount
Vis sammendrag
In Norway, house prices tend to drop in December. This regularity is persistent across regions and over time. I exploit a transaction data set with high temporal granularity to document and estimate the size of the December discount. I control for a composition effect using a hedonic model and I control for unobserved heterogeneity by using repeat sales and involving ask prices and appraisal values. By segmenting into submarkets, I search for determinants of price seasonality. The evidence suggests that the December effect is linked to time-on-market for each unit and transaction volumes within each submarkets.
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Cui, Guowei; Sarafidis, Vasilis & Yamagata, Takashi
(2023)
IV estimation of spatial dynamic panels with interactive effects: large sample theory and an application on bank attitude towards risk
Vis sammendrag
This paper develops a new instrumental variables estimator for spatial, dynamic
panels with interactive effects under large N and T asymptotics. For this class of models, most
approaches available in the literature are based on quasi-maximum likelihood estimation. The
approach put forward here is appealing from both a theoretical and a practical point of view
for a number of reasons. First, it is linear in the parameters of interest and computationally
inexpensive. Second, the IV estimator is free from asymptotic bias. Third, the approach can
accommodate endogenous regressors as long as external instruments are available. The IV
estimator is consistent and asymptotically normal as N, T → ∞ , such that N/T → c , where
0 < c < ∞ . We study the determinants of risk attitude of banking institutions. The results
show that the capital regulation introduced by the Dodd–Frank Act has succeeded in influencing
banks’ behaviour.
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Hunting, Martin Henrik; Hjort, Ingrid & Gjefsen, Hege Marie
(2023)
COVID-19 among guestworkers in Norway
Vis sammendrag
Guestworkers in Norway is a group we have little knowledge about, even though this group makes up nearly 4% of the Norwegian workforce in high seasons during a normal year. During the COVID-19 pandemic, migrant guestworkers in Norway were the subject of strict infection prevention measures, but there is little knowledge about actual infections in this group compared to residents. In this analysis, we study whether infection rates were higher among guestworkers compared to a relevant comparison group in the general population. A guestworker is a non-resident migrant worker with a temporary id-number (d number) and active employment. Our study gives valuable information on whether additional precautionary measures for this group would have been justified. In this paper we use employment data from the State Register of Employers and Employees (Aa-registeret) from April 1st, 2020 to October 1st, 2021, together with results from PCR tests. We compare the probability of infection among guestworkers in Norway with a group of employees who are permanent residents, controlling for gender, age, occupation and local infection rate. We find a lower confirmed incidence of COVID-19 among guestworkers, and no difference in positivity rate.
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Straume, Hans-Martin; Asche, Frank, Oglend, Atle, Gaasland, Ivar, Pettersen, Ingrid Kristine & Sogn-Grundvåg, Geir
(2023)
The structure of Norwegian seafood trade
Vis sammendrag
While seafood is a highly traded commodity, lack of data has largely prevented examination of the firms and industries that are conducting the actual transactions. In this paper we use highly disaggregated data to provide an overview of the seafood exports from Norway, the world’s 2nd largest seafood exporting country, and a country where fisheries as well as aquaculture are important industries. The industry has a global reach with Norwegian seafood reaching 172 different countries in the period 2016–2020. While there are as many as 437 different exporting firms, this is relatively few firms compared to the 11,024 different buyers that import Norwegian seafood. There is significant heterogeneity in the export sector from very small firms handling only a few products to very large firms handling a large variety of products. The average firm is quite specialized and serves only 9 markets. However, there are also a handful of large exporters who ship products from all three main sectors in the Norwegian seafood industry to a large number of markets. The 10% largest companies make up 39% of the total export value and provide significant synergies between the aquaculture, pelagic and whitefish sectors.
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Straume, Hans-Martin; Asche, Frank & Øglend, Atle
(2023)
Intermediaries in Norwegian salmon exports
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Straume, Hans-Martin; Asche, Frank, Landazuri-Tveteraas, Ursula, Misund, Bård, Pettersen, Ingrid Kristine & Zhang, Dengjun
(2023)
Product forms and price transmission in major European salmon markets