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Sørensen, Rune Jørgen & Geys, Benny
(2025)
The Causal Effect of Affluence on Voter Turnout: New Evidence from Lottery Winnings
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Affluent citizens commonly record higher election turnout than less affluent citizens. Yet, the causal effect of affluence on voter turnout remains poorly understood. In this article, we rely on Norwegian administrative data to estimate the impact of random, exogenous shocks in (unearned) income on individual-level voter turnout. Exploiting the random timing and size of lottery wins for identification, our main findings suggest that a lottery windfall in the years just before an election boosts individuals’ turnout probability by 1.6 to 1.9 percentage points. Crucially, these point estimates reflect only a small share of turnout differences observed across the income distribution. Hence, our findings strongly suggest that most of the commonly observed positive income-turnout associations do not reflect a causal relationship.
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Kroken, Vibeke; Murdoch, Zuzana & Geys, Benny Frans Amelia
(2025)
Time tactics in public administration: evidence from a survey experiment
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Boon, Wietse; Holmen, Daniel Førland, Nordbotten, Jan Martin & Vatne, Jon Eivind
(2025)
The Hodge-Laplacian on the Čech-de Rham complex governs coupled problems
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Brekke, Kurt Richard; Dalen, Dag Morten & Straume, Odd Rune
(2025)
Taking the competitor’s pill: When combination therapies enter pharmaceutical markets
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Mysliwski, Mateusz; Rostom, May, Sanches, Fabio Miessi, Junior, Daniel Silva & Srisuma, Sorawoot
(2025)
Identification and estimation of a search model with heterogeneous consumers and firms
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Evensen, Charlotte Bjørnhaug; Foros, Øystein, Haugen, Atle & Kind, Hans Jarle
(2025)
Size-Based Wholesale Price Discrimination With Ex-Ante Investments Into Alternative Sourcing
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If a retailer invests in alternative sourcing for a product otherwise provided by a dominant supplier, it may gain leverage to pressure the supplier into lowering the wholesale price (bargaining effect). The reduced wholesale price, in turn, strengthens the retailer's competitive position, enabling it to capture additional market shares (business-stealing effect). To counter the latter effect, and thus reduce the retailer's incentive to invest in alternative sourcing, the supplier might commit to uniform wholesale pricing. However, we demonstrate that this strategy is unprofitable when retailers are sufficiently differentiated. Instead, if retailers differ in size, supplier profitability is maximized through size-based price discrimination. This might harm consumers. Interestingly, when substitutability is at an intermediate level, supplier and consumer preferences align.
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Mysliwski, Mateusz; Sanches, Fabio Miessi, Junior, Daniel Silva & Srisuma, Sorawoot
(2025)
The Welfare Effects of Supply and Demand Frictions in a Dynamic Pricing Game
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Diehl, Joscha; Ebrahimi-Fard, Kurusch, Harang, Fabian Andsem & Tindel, Samy
(2025)
On the Signature of an Image
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Over the past decade, the importance of the 1D signature which can be seen as a functional defined over a path, has been pivotal in both path-wise stochastic calculus and the analysis of time series data. By considering an image as a two-parameter function that takes values in a -dimensional space, we introduce an extension of the path signature to images. We address numerous challenges associated with this extension and demonstrate that the 2D signature satisfies a version of Chen’s relation in addition to a shuffle-type product. Furthermore, we show that specific variations of the 2D signature can be recursively defined, thereby satisfying an integral-type equation. We analyze the properties of the proposed signature, such as continuity, invariance to stretching, translation and rotation of the underlying image. Additionally, we establish that the proposed 2D signature over an image satisfies a universal approximation property.
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Kinnerud, Karin
(2025)
The effects of monetary policy through housing and mortgage choices on aggregate demand
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Bechtold, Florian & Harang, Fabian Andsem
(2025)
Pathwise regularization by noise for semilinear SPDEs driven by a multiplicative cylindrical Brownian motion
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Knutsen, Magnus Våge
(2025)
Endogenous Prices in Markets with Reputational Concerns
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Broer, Tobias; Druedahl, Jeppe, Harmenberg, Karl & Öberg, Erik
(2025)
The Unemployment-Risk Channel in Business-Cycle Fluctuations
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The unemployment-risk channel (URC) amplifies an initial contraction through a reduction in consumption demand by workers who fear unemployment. Crucial for this are the dynamics of job separations and firm hiring. In US data, the job-finding rate responds slower to identified macroeconomic shocks than the separation rate, but accounts for a similar share of the unemployment response. We calibrate a tractable heterogeneous-agent new-Keynesian model with endogenous separations and sluggish vacancy creation to match these facts. The share of output fluctuations due to the URC is twice as large as in a standard model with exogenous separations and free entry.
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Grindaker, Morten Haabeth; Kostøl, Andreas Ravndal & Roszbach, Kasper
(2025)
Make it or Break it: Corporate Bankruptcy and Management Careers
Working Paper, Norges Bank.
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Maurseth, Per Botolf; Masso, Jaan & Holmen, Rasmus Bøgh
(2025)
FDI and trade for foreign market entry: theory and evidence from Estonia
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Galaasen, Sigurd; Kostøl, Andreas Ravndal, Monras, Joan & Vogel, Jonathan
(2025)
The Labor Supply Curve is Upward Sloping: The Labor Market Effects of Immigrant-Induced Demand Shocks
NBER Working Paper Series.
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Bensi, Manuel; Ingrosso, Gianmarco, Langone, Leonardo, Giordano, Patrizia, Inall, Mark, Mano, Beatriz, Sundfjord, Arild, Bailey, Allison Michelle, Foss, Øyvind, Daase, Malin Hildegard Elisabeth, Guardia, Laura Castro de la, Nilsen, Frank, T, Divya David, Renner, Angelika, Dumont, Estelle, Glowacki, Oskar, Ogg, Franziska, Olsen, Helene, Dølven, Knut Ola, Jones, Eleanor, Ferré, Benedicte, Skogseth, Ragnheid, Moskalik, Mateusz, Korhonen, Meri, Vogedes, Daniel Ludwig, Kovacevic, Vedrana & Mendoza, Francesco Paladini de
(2025)
The Atlantification process in Svalbard: a broad view from the SIOS Marine Infrastructure network (ARiS)
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Arctic marine systems are vital to the Earth’s ecological and climatic balance and harbour a unique biodiversity adapted to extreme conditions. However, they are under unprecedented threat from climate change, in particular from “Atlantification”, i.e., the loss of sea ice and the increasing influence of Atlantic Water (AW) in this region. Long-term observatories are crucial to detect even small changes in these dynamic ecosystems. Svalbard, with its easily accessible infrastructure, is a strategic location for studying these changes. We have identified marine time series that clearly illustrate the signature of Atlantification in the Svalbard region over the last two decades. These time series provide insight into the propagation of AW and the interaction between the continental slope, the shelf and the fjord systems. Seasonal and multi-year temperature and salinity patterns illustrate the varying influence of AW, with long-term variability showing, among others, a freshening phase since 2018, possibly related to North Atlantic freshwater anomalies.
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Fagereng, Andreas; Gomez, Matthieu, Gouin-Bonenfant, Emilien, Holm, Martin Blomhoff, Moll, Benjamin & Natvik, Gisle James
(2025)
Asset-Price Redistribution
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Asset valuations across many asset classes have increased substantially over the last several decades. While these rising valuations had important effects on the distribution of wealth, little is known regarding their redistributive effects in terms of welfare. To make progress on this question, we develop a sufficient statistic for the money-metric welfare gain of deviations in asset valuations. This welfare gain depends on the present value of an individual’s net asset sales rather than asset holdings: higher asset valuations benefit prospective sellers and harm prospective buyers. We estimate this quantity using panel microdata covering the universe of financial transactions in Norway from 1994 to 2019. We further demonstrate how to adapt our baseline statistic to account for important considerations, such as incomplete markets and collateral constraints. We find that the rise in asset valuations had large redistributive effects: it redistributed from the young to the old and from the poor to the wealthy.
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Gundersen, Thomas Størdal; Quaghebeur, Ewoud & Tretvoll, Håkon
(2025)
Koronapandemien i en makroøkonomisk modell
Samfunnsøkonomen, 1, p. 37-55.
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De store variasjonene i viktige økonomiske størrelser under koronapandemien utgjør en utfordring for modeller som tallfestes på historiske tidsserier. I denne artikkelen presenterer vi en pragmatisk løsning på hvordan pandemiperioden kan håndteres i en DSGE-modell for norsk økonomi. Vi introduserer sjokk i den makroøkonomiske modellen NORA som kun får være aktive i pandemiårene. Med denne tilnærmingen kan vi analysere de relative bidragene fra ulike drivere av svingninger i økonomisk aktivitet under pandemien. Vi viser at å ikke ta hensyn til pandemispesifikke sjokk kan lede til en feilvurdering av de økonomiske konsekvensene av innretningen av finanspolitikken. Dette gjør vi ved å se på hvordan en permanent økning i merverdiavgiftssatsen slår ut i økonomisk aktivitet. I en modell uten pandemispesifikke sjokk undervurderes den økonomiske kostnaden med en faktor på fire.
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Stauskas, Ovidijus & Sucarrat, Genaro
(2025)
Testing the zero-process of intraday financial returns for non-stationary periodicity
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Testing the zero-process of intraday financial returns for non-stationary periodicity
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Fiva, Jon H. & Nedregård, Oda
(2024)
How Does Party Discipline Affect Legislative Behavior? Evidence from Within-Term Variation in Lame-Duck Status
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How important are political parties in motivating and disciplining elected officials? Using a difference-in-differences design, we study how shocks to incumbents’ reelection probabilities affect legislative behavior in a setting where parties fully control candidate selection. We find that within-term variation in lame-duck status has a strong negative effect on legislative effort. There is, however, no clear evidence that lame-duck status affects the extent to which legislators deviate from the party line. Our findings align well with the citizen–candidate framework, where candidates have fixed ideological positions that do not vary based on electoral incentives.
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Heggedal, Tom-Reiel & McKay, Thomas
(2024)
Discounting in finite-time bargaining experiments
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This paper examines the impact of different ways of inducing discounting in alternating-offer bargaining games in the lab. We examine this by following the framework of Ochs and Roth (Am Econ Rev, pp. 355–384, 1989) and test whether the model’s predictions find support in data under three different discounting implementations; the shrinking-pie procedure, the effective-discounting procedure and the bargaining-delay procedure. We find no sensitivity to the number of periods in any of the three procedures. However, we find mixed evidence for the effect of changing the discount factor in the effective-discounting procedure and the shrinking-pie procedure, but the magnitude of effects are small. Furthermore, there was more disagreement in both the effective-discounting and bargaining-delay procedures than in the shrinking-pie procedure.
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Oglend, Atle; Asche, Frank & Straume, Hans-Martin
(2024)
Crisis averted: Cross-market reallocation during the great trade collapse
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This article investigates cross-market reallocation of trade to mitigate negative effects of large economic shocks. We propose a simple measure of trade reallocation and apply it to Norwegian exports during the great trade collapse following the financial crisis in 2008–2009. The results indicate statistically significant cross-market reallocation of trade away from markets hit hard by the crisis as measured by GDP/growth. Norwegian exports declined by 16.9% from 2008 and 2009. Without reallocation, the decline would have been between 1.6 and 3.8 percentage points greater. Successful reallocation at the firm level is done primarily along the intensive margin, by shifting physical products towards less affected markets within their pre-crisis trade networks.
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Korotov, Sergey & Vatne, Jon Eivind
(2024)
Conforming simplicial partitions of product-decomposed polytopes
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We propose some approaches for the generation of conforming simplicial partitions with various regularity properties for polytopic domains that are products or a union of products, thus generalizing our earlier results. The techniques presented can be used for finite element simulations of higher-dimensional problems.
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Vantaggiato, Francesca P.; Murdoch, Zuzana, Kassim, Hussein, Geys, Benny & Connolly, Sara Jane
(2024)
Intraorganizational mobility and employees’ work-related contact patterns: evidence from panel data in the European Commission
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Programs to encourage staff to move within public-sector organizations have become increasingly widespread in recent decades. Yet, although there are some anecdotal accounts, the effects of such intraorganizational mobility remain largely unexplored. Building on insights from organization theory and social psychology, we argue that intraorganizational mobility entails an important trade-off: it undermines movers’ depth of work-related contacts within the (new) department, while it increases the breadth of their work-related contacts outside it. Our empirical analysis evaluates this trade-off using a two-way fixed effects model for a longitudinal dataset of movers (N = 149) and stayers (N = 473) across two survey waves among European Commission officials in 2014 and 2018. Our main findings confirm that intraorganizational mobility is connected in opposing ways to employees’ intra- and extra-departmental work-related contact patterns. In line with theoretical expectations, we find these relationships to be stronger for employees who have previously experienced intraorganizational moves (“repeat-movers”).
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Bjørnland, Hilde C & Skretting, Julia Zhulanova
(2024)
The shale oil boom and the US economy: Spillovers and time-varying effects
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We provide new evidence that the transmission of oil price shocks to the US economy has changed with the shale oil boom. To show this, we develop a time-varying parameter factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) model with a large data environment of state-level, industry, and aggregate US data. The model effectively captures potential spillovers between oil and non-oil industries, as well as variation over time. Specified in this way, we find that investment, income, industrial production, and (non-oil) employment in most oil-producing and some manufacturing-intensive US states increase following an oil-specific shock—effects that were not present before the shale oil boom.
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Cox, Gary W.; Fiva, Jon H. & King, Max-Emil Mohn
(2024)
Bound by Borders: Voter Mobilization Through Social Networks
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A vast and growing quantitative literature considers how social networks shape political mobilization but the degree to which turnout decisions are strategic remains ambiguous. Unlike previous studies, we establish personal links between voters and candidates and exploit discontinuous incentives to mobilize across district boundaries to estimate causal effects. Considering three types of networks – families, co-workers, and immigrant communities – we show that a group member's candidacy acts as a mobilizational impulse propagating through the group's network. In family networks, some of this impulse is non-strategic, surviving past district boundaries. However, the bulk of family mobilization is bound by the candidate's district boundary, as is the entirety of the mobilizational effects in the other networks.
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Bacher, Annika; Grübener, Philipp & Nord, Lukas
(2024)
Joint search over the life cycle
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This paper provides evidence that the added worker effect – labor force entry upon spousal job loss – is stronger for young than old households. Using a life cycle model of two-member households in a frictional labor market, we study whether this age-dependency is driven by heterogeneous needs for or availability of spousal insurance. Our framework endogenizes asset and human capital accumulation, as well as arrival rates of job offers, and is disciplined against U.S. micro data. Counterfactuals show a strong complementarity across both margins: A large added worker effect requires both high spousal earnings potential relative to the primary earner and limited access to other means of self-insurance. Together, both margins account for the observed age differential in the added worker effect. The model predicts substantial crowding out of spousal labor supply responses by unemployment benefit extensions among young households, in line with their stronger insurance motive.
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Fiva, Jon H.; Izzo, Federica & Tukiainen, Janne
(2024)
The gatekeeper's dilemma: Political selection or team effort
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Political parties play a crucial gatekeeping role in elections, including controlling electoral resources, candidate recruitment, and electoral list compositions. In making these strategic choices, parties aim to encourage candidates to invest in the campaign, while also trying to secure advantages for their preferred candidates. We study how parties navigate this trade-off using a specific feature of the Norwegian local electoral system in which parties can give advantaged positions to some candidates in an otherwise open list. Our theory reveals that parties’ ex-ante electoral strength impacts their strategic decisions. Notably, the trade-off is weaker for more popular parties, allowing them to facilitate the election of their preferred candidates without compromising the party’s overall performance. We show empirically that the moral hazard concern is real, and that larger parties are indeed more likely to use their power to make some candidates safe. The advantage of large parties extends further: safeguarding specific candidates enables parties to achieve disproportionately favorable outcomes in post-electoral bargaining. These findings reveal new insights for political representations, policy outcomes, and intra-party dynamics more broadly.
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Schröder, Maximilian
(2024)
Probabilistic Quantile Factor Analysis
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This article extends quantile factor analysis to a probabilistic variant that incorporates regularization and computationally efficient variational approximations. We establish through synthetic and real data experiments that the proposed estimator can, in many cases, achieve better accuracy than a recently proposed loss-based estimator. We contribute to the factor analysis literature by extracting new indexes of low, medium, and high economic policy uncertainty, as well as loose, median, and tight financial conditions. We show that the high uncertainty and tight financial conditions indexes have superior predictive ability for various measures of economic activity. In a high-dimensional exercise involving about 1000 daily financial series, we find that quantile factors also provide superior out-of-sample information compared to mean or median factors.
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Cross, Jamie; Hoogerheide, Lennart, Labonne, Paul & Dijk, Herman K. van
(2024)
Bayesian mode inference for discrete distributions in economics and finance
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We propose a straightforward technique for mode inference in discrete data distributions which involves fitting a mixture of novel shifted-Poisson distributions. The credibility and utility of our approach is demonstrated through applications pertaining to loan default risk and inflation expectations.
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Santika, Nita; Oglend, Atle, Straume, Hans-Martin & Asche, Frank
(2024)
Brexsea Trade and Uncertainty: Impact of Brexit on Seafood Exports
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This paper investigates the effect of the Brexit referendum on Norwegian firms' exports of fresh seafood to the United Kingdom. We exploit the referendum as a quasi-natural experiment to investigate the effect of an uncertainty shock in trade on export values, volumes, and prices, as well as market entry and exit. First, we find that Norwegian firms experienced an average 2% decrease in total export value resulting from the referendum, suggesting a limited aggregate effect. Second, we examine the role of duration in firm-to-firm relationships in response to the shock, finding that more established relationships responded relatively more along the intensive margin to the shock. Third, the market dynamic post-referendum reveals a nuanced impact; while new market entries were limited, a slight increase in exit probabilities was observed. This reflects a strategic response by Norwegian exporters to the shock, particularly amongst firms with an established export history, indicating a reassessment of market presence. Overall, Norwegian exporters have demonstrated resilience and adaptability, effectively adjusting to the challenges of the Brexit referendum with minimal disruptions while maintaining their international trade relations amidst short-term uncertainties.
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Bacher, Annika
(2024)
The Gender Investment Gap over the Life Cycle
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Single women invest less in risky assets than do single men. This paper analyzes the determinants of the “gender investment gap” based on a structural life-cycle framework. The model can rationalize the gender investment gap without gender heterogeneity in preferences. Rather, lower deterministic income and larger household sizes shift the composition of single women toward poorer households that invest less risky (composition effect). Additionally, future outcomes of both variables (which cannot easily be controlled for in regressions) make single women more vulnerable to financial shocks and decrease their optimal equity share even conditional on state variables (policy effect).
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Oglend, Atle; Asche, Frank & Straume, Hans-Martin
(2024)
Rent formation and distortions due to quotas in biological production processes
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Production licenses with use restrictions that limit output are commonly used to regulate biological production processes. Such regulations are vulnerable to rent formation and production distortions that can end up subsidizing harmful environmental behavior. This paper develops a partial equilibrium model for a biological production process and use the model to study the impact of production quotas in Norwegian salmon aquaculture. Results suggest substantial regulatory rents capitalized in license values. Production has intensified leading to excessive stocking of fish per license, a shorting of the production period, and smaller produced fish. Our findings provide important insights for quota policies in food production, especially for cases where quotas are motivated by harmful environmental effects.
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Galle, Simon & Lorentzen, Linnea
(2024)
The unequal effects of trade and automation across local labor markets
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We quantify the joint impact of the China shock and automation of labor, across US commuting zones (CZs) in the period 2000–2007. To this end, we employ a multi-sector gravity model of trade with Roy-Fréchet worker heterogeneity across sectors, where labor input can be automated. Automation and increased import competition from China are both sector-specific; they lead to contractions in a sector’s labor demand and a decline in relative income for CZs more specialized in that sector, amplified by a voluntary reduction in hours worked and an increase in frictional unemployment. The estimated model fits well with the aggregate performance of manufacturing subsectors and with the variation across CZs in changes in average income, the hourly wage, hours worked, the employment rate and employment in manufacturing. By itself, the China shock has stronger distributional effects than automation, but its impact on aggregate gains is less than a third of automation’s impact.
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Campos-Martins, Susana & Sucarrat, Genaro
(2024)
Modeling Nonstationary Financial Volatility with the R Package tvgarch
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Certain events can make the structure of volatility of financial returns to change, making it nonstationary. Models of time-varying conditional variance such as generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models usually assume stationarity. However, this assumption can be inappropriate and volatility predictions can fail in the presence of structural changes in the unconditional variance. To overcome this problem, in the time-varying (TV-)GARCH model, the GARCH parameters are allowed to vary smoothly over time by assuming not only the conditional but also the unconditional variance to be time-varying. In this paper, we show how useful the R package tvgarch (Campos-Martins and Sucarrat 2023) can be for modeling nonstationary volatility in financial empirical applications. The functions for simulating, testing and estimating TV-GARCH-X models, where additional covariates can be included, are implemented in both univariate and multivariate settings.
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Foldnes, Njål; Uppstad, Per Henning, Grønneberg, Steffen & Thomson, Jenny
(2024)
School entry detection of struggling readers using gameplay data and machine learning
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Current methods for reading difficulty risk detection at school entry remain error-prone. We present a novel approach utilizing machine learning analysis of data from GraphoGame, a fun and pedagogical literacy app. The app was played in class daily for ten minutes by 1676 Norwegian first graders, over a five-week period during the first months of schooling, generating rich process data. Models were trained on the process data combined with results from the endof-year national screening test. The best machine learning models correctly identified 75% of the students at risk for developing reading difficulties. The present study is among the first to investigate the potential of predicting emerging learning difficulties using machine learning on game process data.
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Canova, Fabio & Pappa, Evi
(2024)
The macroeconomic effects of EU regional structural funds
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This reflective article presents a case study of journalists in the media reporting from the trial against the former president of the International Biathlon Union. The main corruption charges against the former president were concerned with a car made available to him free of charge by a sponsor of biathlon, exclusive hunting trips paid for by a marketing firm, valuable watches given to him by biathlon organizers, and prostitutes offered to him by Russian biathlon officials. In terms of monetary value, the most valuable bribe was the car, and the least valuable bribe was sex work. Yet findings of this case study showed that the sport journalists preferred to write numerous articles about the alleged access to prostitutes. Fifty-nine major news reports reviewed in the presented research form the basis for this conclusion. Potentially long prison sentences, money involved, and famous defendants are some of the characteristics when selecting and reporting from white-collar crime cases. The findings of this case study support this claim
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Korotov, Sergey & Vatne, Jon Eivind
(2024)
On dihedral angle sums and number of facets for product polytopes
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In this paper we present a method for computing the dihedral angle sums (and their two-sided estimates) of cartesian and skew product polytopes provided the sums of dihedral angles (or their estimates) are known for the factors. In addition, a formula for computing the number of facets of such product polytopes is derived. The method proposed is very universal and illustrated by several examples. The estimates
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Canova, Fabio
(2024)
FAQ: how do I estimate the output gap?
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I investigate the properties of output gaps in New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models and study the relationship between theory-based quantities and the estimates obtained with standard approaches. Theoretical gaps display low-frequency variations, have similar frequency domain representations as potentials and are generally correlated with them. Potentials have important business cycle variability. Existing statistical approaches fail to recognise these features and generate distorted estimates. Gaps are best estimated with a polynomial filter. Explanations for the outcomes are given. I propose a statistical procedure reducing estimation biases.
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Hamang, Jonas Hveding
(2024)
Economic development and known natural resource endowment: Discovery rate differentials of oil
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The location of oil reserves plays an essential role in policymakers’ incentives to coordinate supply-side climate policy. In this paper I use data on the location of all historic onshore petroleum discoveries to establish a new stylized fact: Economically developed areas are many times more likely to contain an oil or gas discovery, compared to undeveloped areas. I show that this result is not driven reverse causality or confounding geology. By implication, there exist large additional undiscovered oil and gas deposits in currently undeveloped areas, mainly located outside of Europe and North America. I quantify these deposits to be about 40% of total discovered onshore oil reserves.
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Straume, Hans-Martin
(2024)
Buyers in Norwegian salmon exports: Structure and trade margins
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Vos, Ignace De & Stauskas, Ovidijus
(2024)
Cross-section Bootstrap for CCE regressions
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The Common Correlated Effects (CCE) methodology is now well established for the analysis of factor-augmented panel data models. Yet, it is often neglected that the pooled variant is biased unless the cross-section dimension ( ) of the dataset dominates the time series length ( ). This is problematic for inference with typical macroeconomic datasets, where is often equal or larger than . In response, we establish in this paper the theoretical foundation of the cross-section (CS) bootstrap for inference with CCE estimators in large and panels with . This resampling scheme is often used to estimate standard errors, yet without theoretical justification, and with unused potential, as we show it also provides a solution to the bias problem. We derive conditions under which the scheme replicates the distribution of the CCE estimators, such that bias can be eliminated and asymptotically valid inference can ensue. In so doing, we also spend attention to the case where factors need not be common across the dependent and explanatory variables, or when slopes are heterogeneous. Since we find that the CS-bootstrap applies in each case, researchers can stay agnostic on these issues. Simulation experiments show that the asymptotic properties also translate well to finite samples.
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Asche, Frank; Concha, Ursula Alejandra Landazuri, Øglend, Atle, Santika, Nita & Straume, Hans-Martin
(2024)
Spillover effects from agglomeration in seafood exports
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Agglomeration externality is a feature that has received limited attention in food production supply chains. Using highly disaggregated trade data, this paper investigates the presence of regional agglomeration effects in Norwegian seafood exports. Results indicate strong agglomeration effects in the exports of both farmed and harvested seafood at the region–product–destination level. Regional agglomeration of exporters affects the firms through different margins. In both industries, increased agglomeration results in larger volumes, while aquaculture exporters experience a small, negative, price effect. The largest firms, both in the number of employees and size of product portfolio, export most. We also document that agglomeration is important in explaining the creation of new regional product-destination-specific trade relationships, indicating the presence of regional spillover effects.
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Schröder, Maximilian
(2024)
Monitoring multi-country macroeconomic risk: A quantile factor-augmented vector autoregressive (QFAVAR) approach
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A multi-country quantile factor-augmented vector autoregression is proposed to model heterogeneities both across countries and across characteristics of the distributions of macroeconomic time series. The presence of quantile factors enables a parsimonious summary of these two heterogeneities by accounting for dependencies in the cross-sectional dimension as well as across different quantiles of macroeconomic data. Using monthly euro area data, the strong empirical performance of the new model in gauging the impact of global shocks on country-level macroeconomic risks is demonstrated. The short-term tail forecasts of QFAVAR outperform those of FAVARs with symmetric Gaussian errors as well as univariate and multivariate specifications featuring stochastic volatility. Modeling individual quantiles enables scenario analysis of macroeconomic risks, a unique feature absent in FAVARs with stochastic volatility or flexible error distributions.
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Stauskas, Ovidijus & Vos, Ignace De
(2024)
Handling Distinct Correlated Effects with CCE
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The common correlated effects (CCE) approach by Pesaran is a popular method for estimating panel data models with interactive effects. Due to its simplicity, i.e., unobserved common factors are approximated with cross-section averages of the observables, the estimator is highly flexible and lends itself to a wide range of applications. Despite such flexibility, however, the properties of CCE estimators are typically only examined under the restrictive assumption that all the observed variables load on the same set of factors, which ensures joint identification of the factor space. In this article, we take a different perspective, and explore the empirically relevant case where the dependent and explanatory variables are driven by distinct but correlated factors. Hence, we consider the case of Distinct Correlated Effects. Such settings can be argued to be relevant for practice, for instance in studies linking economic growth to climatic variables. In so doing, we consider panel dimensions such that as , which is known to induce an asymptotic bias for the pooled CCE estimator even under the usual common factor assumption. We subsequently develop a robust bootstrap-based toolbox that enables asymptotically valid inference in both homogeneous and heterogeneous panels, without requiring knowledge about whether factors are distinct or common.
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Gola, Pawel
(2024)
On the Importance of Social Status for Occupational Sorting
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Models of self-selection predict that occupations with flat wage schedules attract workers of lower average ability. However, in certain prominent occupations such as academia and the civil service, wages are flat yet the average skill level is high. In this paper, I examine whether social status concerns can explain this puzzle. I find that within-occupation status allows flat wage occupations to attract predominantly high-skilled workers, but only at the cost of attracting few workers overall. If, however, workers care about both within- and between-occupation status then occupations paying flat wages can be arbitrarily large and attract workers of high average skill. I conclude that within- and between-occupation status concerns act as complements.
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Canova, Fabio
(2024)
Should we trust cross sectional multiplier estimates?
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I examine the properties of cross-sectional estimators of multipliers, elasticities, or pass-throughs when a conventional spatial macroeconomic specification generates the data. A number of important biases plague standard estimates; the most relevant one occurs when the units display heterogeneous dynamics. Methods that work well in this situation are suggested. An experimental setting shows the magnitude of the biases cross-sectional estimators display. Average estimates of local fiscal multipliers in the US states are compared and contrasted.
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Fjære-Lindkjenn, Jeanette; Aastveit, Knut Are, Karlman, Markus Johan, Kinnerud, Karin, Juelsrud, Ragnar Enger & Wold, Ella Getz
(2024)
Hvordan virker utlånsforskriften? En oppsummering av forskningslitteraturen
Samfunnsøkonomen, 138(2).
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I denne artikkelen forsøker vi å svare på om utlånsforskriften har virket etter hensikten og hvilke kostnader den påfører husholdningene. Forskningslitteraturen indikerer at boliglånsregulering bidrar til noe lavere gjelds- og boligprisvekst, men at det er mer usikkert om den reduserer husholdningenes sårbarhet for uforutsette hendelser som renteøkninger og arbeidsledighet. Utlånsforskriften påfører samtidig mange husholdninger kostnader ved at den begrenser muligheten for konsumglatting og kan gjøre det vanskeligere for unge å kjøpe sin første bolig. Reguleringen kan også forsterke viktigheten av formuende foreldre for muligheten til boligkjøp. Høy inflasjon og rente kan redusere behovet for forskriften og øke kostnadene.
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Aastveit, Knut Are; Fastbø, Tuva Marie, Granziera, Eleonora, Paulsen, Kenneth Sæterhagen & Torstensen, Kjersti Næss
(2024)
Nowcasting Norwegian household consumption with debit card transaction data
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We use a novel data set covering all domestic debit card transactions in physical terminals by Norwegian households, to nowcast quarterly Norwegian household consumption. These card payments data are not subject to revisions and are available weekly without delays, providing a valuable early indicator of household spending. To account for mixed-frequency data, we estimate various quantile mixed-data sampling (QMIDAS) regressions using predictors sampled at monthly and weekly frequency. We evaluate both point and density forecasting performance over the sample 2011Q4–2019Q4. Our results show that MIDAS regressions with debit card transactions data improve both point and density forecast accuracy over competitive standard benchmark models that use alternative high-frequency predictors. Finally, we illustrate the benefits of using the card payments data by obtaining a timely and relatively accurate nowcast of 2020Q1, a quarter characterized by heightened uncertainty due to the COVID-19 pandemic. We further show how debit card data have been useful in nowcasting consumption during the four subsequent quarters.
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Godøy, Anna Aasen; Haaland, Venke Furre, Huitfeldt, Ingrid Marie Schaumburg & Votruba, Mark E
(2024)
Hospital Queues, Patient Health, and Labor Supply
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Long waits for health care raise concerns about the consequences of delayed treatment. We use variation in queue congestion to estimate effects of wait time for orthopedic surgery. We do not find that longer wait times lead to increased health care utilization. However, we do find persistent reductions in labor supply: long waits increase medium to long-term work absences and permanent disability receipt. Effects are driven by individuals who are on sick leave at referral. Our results are consistent with patterns of state dependence, where extended periods of temporary disability while awaiting treatment create persistent barriers to returning to work.
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Grindaker, Morten Haabeth; Merkle, Matthew & Kostøl, Andreas Ravndal
(2024)
Corporate Bankruptcy and Labor Market Insuranc
IZA Discussion Papers.
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Berger, David; Herkenhoff, Kyle, Kostøl, Andreas Ravndal & Mongey, Simon
(2024)
An Anatomy of Monopsony: Search Frictions, Amenities, and Bargaining in Concentrated Markets
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Labonne, Paul
(2024)
Asymmetric uncertainty: Nowcasting using skewness in real-time data
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This paper presents a new way to account for downside and upside risks when producing density nowcasts of GDP growth. The approach relies on modelling location, scale, and shape common factors in real-time macroeconomic data. While movements in the location generate shifts in the central part of the predictive density, the scale controls its dispersion (akin to general uncertainty) and the shape its asymmetry, or skewness (akin to downside and upside risks). The empirical application is centred on US GDP growth, and the real-time data come from FRED-MD. The results show that there is more to real-time data than their levels or means: their dispersion and asymmetry provide valuable information for nowcasting economic activity. Scale and shape common factors (i) yield more reliable measures of uncertainty and (ii) improve precision when macroeconomic uncertainty is at its peak.
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Fagereng, Andreas; Onshuus, Helene & Torstensen, Kjersti Næss
(2024)
The consumption expenditure response to unemployment: Evidence from Norwegian households
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This paper examines heterogeneity in household income and consumption responses to unemployment, using granular administrative tax data from Norway. On average, unemployment results in a significant, lasting income reduction, accompanied by a decrease in consumption expenditures of between one-third to one-half of the income loss. We find that households with greater liquid assets at the outset experience less of a decline in consumption, whereas those with higher levels of debt encounter a more substantial decrease. Notably, also the interaction of liquid assets and debt holdings matters for the consumption response. While households with larger initial liquid asset holdings on average respond less, the analyses show that this is not the case among households that simultaneously hold substantial amounts of debt, thus adding to a more nuanced view of the importance of household heterogeneity for economic outcomes. Furthermore, our investigation into heterogeneity across family composition and child age uncovers distinct patterns in consumption responses, highlighting the varied impacts of unemployment. Lastly, we find that spending patterns, as indicated by the marginal propensity to consume (MPC), become more pronounced during recessions.
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Geys, Benny & Sørensen, Rune Jørgen
(2024)
Transitory Income Windfalls and Charitable Giving: Evidence from Norwegian Register Data, 1993–2021
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This paper studies the impact of unearned, transitory income shocks on charitable giving using Norwegian administrative data. We exploit the random timing and size of lottery wins and our long time period (1993 2021) to estimate both short- and longer-term impacts. We find no meaningful effect of small windfalls. Yet, windfalls exceeding $10,000 induce a long-lasting increase in the likelihood to donate, the absolute level of donations and the share of annual income donated (conditional on donating). We show that this is consistent with individuals thinking of large transitory income shocks as a long-term addition to their annual income
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Ile, Runar
(2024)
Versality for pairs
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For a pair (algebra, module) with equidimensional and isolated singularity we establish the existence of a versal henselian deformation. Obstruction theory in terms of an André-Quillen cohomology for pairs is a central ingredient in the Artin theory used. In particular we give a long exact sequence relating the algebra cohomology and the module cohomology with the cohomology of the pair and define a Kodaira-Spencer class for pairs.
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Sørensen, Rune Jørgen
(2024)
Are politicians more generous? Evidence from charitable giving
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This paper analyzes the relationship between charitable giving and political candidacy. It uses individual-level Norwegian register data, which is combined with data on the universe of candidates running for local elections (2003–2021). These data include information on tax-deductible donations to approved organizations. Existing and new evidence suggest these gifts are a valid marker of pro-social preferences, with charitable contributors also displaying a positive correlation with competence. The average politician is more generous than the general population both before, during, and after their election to public office. An event study indicates that while contributions remain predominantly stable; they increase modestly when candidates are standing for election and decrease afterward.
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Ɖorđević, Jasmina & Dahl, Kristina Rognlien
(2024)
Stochastic optimal control of pre-exposure prophylaxis for HIV infection for a jump model
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We analyze a stochastic optimal control problem for the PReP vaccine in a model for the spread of HIV. To do so, we use a stochastic model for HIV/AIDS with PReP, where we include jumps in the model. This generalizes previous works in the field. First, we prove that there exists a positive, unique, global solution to the system of stochastic differential equations which makes up the model. Further, we introduce a stochastic control problem for dynamically choosing an optimal percentage of the population to receive PReP. By using the stochastic maximum principle, we derive an explicit expression for the stochastic optimal control. Furthermore, via a generalized Lagrange multiplier method in combination with the stochastic maximum principle, we study two types of budget constraints. We illustrate the results by numerical examples, both in the fixed control case and in the stochastic control case.
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Schönhage, Nanna Lauritz & Geys, Benny
(2024)
Partisanship, blame avoidance behaviours and voter reactions to allegations of political misconduct
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Politicians often engage in blame avoidance behaviours in order to evade electoral punishment following allegations of misconduct. A key question concerns the (in)effectiveness of such behaviours in mitigating voter opinions about the alleged misconduct and the appropriate punishment. In this article, we examine how this (in)effectiveness may be shaped by: (1) the characteristics of blame avoidance behaviours, and (2) voters' partisan (mis)alignment with the alleged offender. We address this question using a between-subject survey experiment among a sample of Norwegian citizens (N = 1996). Our main findings suggest that blame avoidance behaviours can be effective in mitigating voters' assessment of the alleged misconduct and of the punishment the politician should face. This is particularly true when it concerns politicians from respondents' most-preferred party, and among left-wing voters. These findings help explain when and why scandals may (fail to) affect politicians’ electoral fortunes.
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Bhuller, Manudeep & Sigstad, Henrik
(2024)
Feedback and Learning: The Causal Effects of Reversals on Judicial Decision-Making
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Do judges respond to reversals of their decisions? Using random assignment of cases across two stages of the criminal justice system in Norway and a novel dataset linking trial court decisions to reversals in appeals courts, we provide causal evidence on feedback effects in judicial decision-making. By exploiting differences in the tendencies of randomly assigned appeal panels to reverse trial court decisions, we show that trial court judges who receive a reversal of a sentence respond by updating the likelihood of imposing a prison sentence in the direction of the reversal in future cases. Consistent with a Bayesian learning model, we find that the responses are stronger for judges with weaker priors and for reversals corresponding to stronger signals. Our estimates, however, also indicate that judges overreact to reversals compared to Bayes’ rule.
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Foldnes, Njål; Moss, Jonas & Grønneberg, Steffen
(2024)
Improved Goodness of Fit Procedures for Structural Equation Models
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We propose new ways of robustifying goodness-of-fit tests for structural equation modeling under non-normality. These test statistics have limit distributions characterized by eigenvalues whose estimates are highly unstable and biased in known directions. To take this into account, we design model-based trend predictions to approximate the population eigenvalues. We evaluate the new procedures in a large-scale simulation study with three confirmatory factor models of varying size (10, 20, or 40 manifest variables) and six non-normal data conditions. The eigenvalues in each simulated dataset are available in a database. Some of the new procedures markedly outperform presently available methods. We demonstrate how the new tests are calculated with a new R package and provide practical recommendations.
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Mehlum, Halvor; Natvik, Gisle James & Torvik, Ragnar
(2024)
The impossible trinity: Competitive markets, free entry, and efficiency
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We present a model in which workers make occupational choices and vote over a tax rate which determines the level of government spending. Workers in occupations whose services are in high (low) demand by the government favor high (low) taxes. We show that the socially efficient size of the public sector cannot be supported in a political economic equilibrium. The reason is that equilibrium tax rates always reward excessive entry into the politically most powerful sector, and thus the equilibrium size of government is always either too big or too small. We show that this is an example of a more general political economy result that extends well beyond the baseline model and holds quite generally: the combination of (i) competitive markets and (ii) free entry is inconsistent with (iii) allocative efficiency.
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Geys, Benny; Lægreid, Per, Murdoch, Zuzana & Yackee, Susan Webb
(2024)
I’m a Survivor: Political Dynamics in Bureaucratic Elites’ Partisan Identification
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This article challenges the common assumption that the partisan identification of bureaucratic elites is fixed over time. Building on principal-agent and organization theory, we hypothesize that bureaucratic elites may respond to political turnover by adjusting their partisan identification toward that of their (new) elected principals. We test this prediction using data from the American State Administrators Project (ASAP) over the 1964–2008 period, which allows us to study the same US agency leaders (N=951 individuals) before and after partisan shifts in their agency’s elected principals. We find significant evidence that agency leaders remaining in office following a shift in the party in power on average reorient their partisan identity in response to such turnover events. These adjustments are stronger for agency leaders directly appointed by, or in more frequent contact with, their elected principals. Our results suggest a malleability of partisanship seldom attributed to bureaucratic elites in public and academic discourse.
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Grønneberg, Steffen & Irmer, Julien
(2024)
Non-parametric Regression Among Factor Scores: Motivation and Diagnostics for Nonlinear Structural Equation Models
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We provide a framework for motivating and diagnosing the functional form in the structural part of nonlinear or linear structural equation models when the measurement model is a correctly specified linear confirmatory factor model. A mathematical population-based analysis provides asymptotic identification results for conditional expectations of a coordinate of an endogenous latent variable given exogenous and possibly other endogenous latent variables, and theoretically well-founded estimates of this conditional expectation are suggested. Simulation studies show that these estimators behave well compared to presently available alternatives. Practically, we recommend the estimator using Bartlett factor scores as input to classical non-parametric regression methods.
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Bhuller, Manudeep & Sigstad, Henrik
(2024)
2SLS with multiple treatments
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We study what two-stage least squares (2SLS) identifies in models with multiple treatments under treatment effect heterogeneity. Two conditions are shown to be necessary and sufficient for the 2SLS to identify positively weighted sums of agent-specific effects of each treatment: average conditional monotonicity and no cross effects. Our identification analysis allows for any number of treatments, any number of continuous or discrete instruments, and the inclusion of covariates. We provide testable implications and present characterizations of choice behavior implied by our identification conditions.
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Larsen, Erling Røed
(2023)
House price seasonality, market activity, and the December discount
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In Norway, house prices tend to drop in December. This regularity is persistent across regions and over time. I exploit a transaction data set with high temporal granularity to document and estimate the size of the December discount. I control for a composition effect using a hedonic model and I control for unobserved heterogeneity by using repeat sales and involving ask prices and appraisal values. By segmenting into submarkets, I search for determinants of price seasonality. The evidence suggests that the December effect is linked to time-on-market for each unit and transaction volumes within each submarkets.
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Reiter, Michael; Sveen, Tommy & Weinke, Lutz
(2023)
Idiosyncratic Shocks, Lumpy Investment and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism
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Standard (S, s) models of lumpy investment allow us to match many
aspects of the micro data, but it is well known that the implied interest rate sen-
sitivity of investment is unrealistically large. In fact, the micro-level lumpiness in
investment puts empirical discipline on the modeling of investment decisions, and
this makes it hard to explain the monetary policy transmission mechanism.
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Grytten, Jostein Ivar; Skau, Irene & Sørensen, Rune Jørgen
(2023)
Fertility and immigration: Do immigrant mothers hand down their fertility pattern to the next generation? Evidence from Norway
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Harang, Fabian Andsem; Tindel, Samy & Wang, Xiaohua
(2023)
Volterra Equations Driven by Rough Signals 3: Probabilistic Construction of the Volterra Rough Path for Fractional Brownian Motions
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Based on the recent development of the framework of Volterra rough paths (Harang
and Tindel in Stoch Process Appl 142:34–78, 2021), we consider here the probabilistic
construction of the Volterra rough path associated to the fractional Brownian motion
with H > 1
2 and for the standard Brownian motion. The Volterra kernel k(t,s) is
allowed to be singular, and behaving similar to |t − s|
−γ for some γ ≥ 0. The
construction is done in both the Stratonovich and Itô senses. It is based on a modified
Garsia–Rodemich–Romsey lemma which is of interest in its own right, as well as
tools from Malliavin calculus. A discussion of challenges and potential extensions is
provided.
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Kost, Dominique; Kopperud, Karoline, Buch, Robert, Kuvaas, Bård & Olsson, Ulf Henning
(2023)
The competing influence of psychological job control on family-to-work conflict
Journal of Occupational and Organizational Psychology, 96(2), p. 351-377.
Doi:
10.1111/joop.12426
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Psychological job control has typically been negatively related to work-to-family and family-to-work conflict. Based on the job demand-resource model and boundary theory, we argue that psychological job control may indirectly be positively related to family-to-work conflict by both increasing supplemental work, that is, the rate of engagement in work outside of formal working hours without receiving compensation aided by mobile technology, and work-to-family conflict. We hypothesize that this proposed positive indirect relationship will be lower among employees who perceive a high segmentation norm at their workplace. Based on a two-wave study of 4518 employees, we obtained support for a serial moderated mediation model that suggests a dual effect of psychological job control on family-to-work conflict, such that psychological job control was positively associated with family-to-work conflict through supplemental work and work-to-family conflict at low levels of segmentation norms. By examining the dual effects of psychological job control, this study aims to further understand the mechanisms involved in determining whether and when psychological job control, together with supplemental work, encourages employees to uphold or cross boundaries between work and nonwork domains. Our findings imply that psychological job control can both be a resource and a demand depending on the levels of segmentation norms.
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Murdoch, Zuzana; Geys, Benny & Sørensen, Rune Jørgen
(2023)
Political Representation of Public Sector Employees
jop.blogs.uni-hamburg.de.