Jørgen Randers

World Economics 17(2) s. 63-78

Earth System Dynamics (ESD) 7(4) s. 831-850 Doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-831-2016

We have made a simple system dynamics model, ESCIMO (Earth System Climate Interpretable Model), which runs on a desktop computer in seconds and is able to reproduce the main output from more complex climate models. ESCIMO represents the main causal mechanisms at work in the Earth system and is able to reproduce the broad outline of climate history from 1850 to 2015. We have run many simulations with ESCIMO to 2100 and beyond. In this paper we present the effects of introducing in 2015 six possible global policy interventions that cost around USD 1000 billion per year – around 1 % of world GDP. We tentatively conclude (a) that these policy interventions can at most reduce the global mean surface temperature – GMST – by up to 0.5 °C in 2050 and up to 1.0 °C in 2100 relative to no intervention. The exception is injection of aerosols into the stratosphere, which can reduce the GMST by more than 1.0 °C in a decade but creates other serious problems. We also conclude (b) that relatively cheap human intervention can keep global warming in this century below +2 °C relative to preindustrial times. Finally, we conclude (c) that run-away warming is unlikely to occur in this century but is likely to occur in the longer run. The ensuing warming is slow, however. In ESCIMO, it takes several hundred years to lift the GMST to +3 °C above preindustrial times through gradual self-reinforcing melting of the permafrost.

oekom verlag

Extrakt

World Nutrition Forum Sustain:ability s. 17-27

System Dynamics Review 30(4) s. 264-282 Doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/sdr.1522

CSR and beyond: A Nordic perspective s. 219-239

World Future Review 5(4) s. 360-366 Doi: https://doi.org/10.1177/1946756713514543

Edizione Ambiente

Aus Politik und Zeitgeschichte 62(51-52/2012) s. 3-10

oekom verlag

GAIA 21(2) s. 102-105

Chelsea Green Publishing

Energy Policy 48 s. 46-55 Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2012.04.041

Foreign Affairs 91(5) s. 10-11

Magma forskning og viten 14(2) s. 21-34

Journal of Global Responsibility 1(1) s. 170-188

Futures: The journal of policy, planning and futures studies 40(10) s. 853-864 Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2008.07.042

World Economics 8(1) s. 75-106

Magma forskning og viten 10(1) s. 51-57

System Dynamics Review 23(2-3) s. 253-285 Doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/sdr.376

World Economics 8(1)

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Biological Sciences 360 s. 289-295 Doi: https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2004.1584

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS) 99(14) s. 9266-9271

System Dynamics Review 16(4)

s. 4-5

2013(6)

Inauguration Center for the Ecological Civilization - Peking University

Innovative City Forum 2019 - Tokyo

Senior executive seminar - Hong Kong

Magma forskning og viten 22(5) s. 17-24

Det er ikke én som må gjøre alt. Alle må gjøre litt. Individuelle initiativ er ikke nok. Her kreves kollektiv respons. Her er det ikke nok å gjøre sitt beste. Her må man gjøre det som trengs.

China Development Forum - Beijing

Stockholm Resilience Center

If the world’s nations continue with the same efforts as in the recent decades we will not achieve SDGs by 2030, nor 2050. By 2030, in the business-as-usual scenario, the world’s success score on SDGs will be only 10 out of 17, up from 9 in 2015. The main problems are that satisfying the social SDGs with conventional policy tools will lead to very large human footprints in terms of resource use and pollution outputs, and to increasing inequity. The state of the Earth’s planetary boundaries (PBs) will be further in the red, high-risk zone particularly with regards to global warming, biodiversity loss, air pollution and toxic entities in nature. There is high risk for pushing the Earth’s life supporting systems beyond irreversible trigger-points by 2050.

International System Dynamics Conference

International system dynamics conference 2017

Springer

Current worldwide trends are not sustainable. The Club of Rome’s warnings published in the book Limits to Growth are still valid. Remedies that are acceptable for the great majority tend to make things worse. We seem to be in a philosophical crisis. Pope Francis says it clearly: our common home is in deadly danger. Analyzing the philosophical crisis, the book comes to the conclusion that the world may need a “new enlightenment”; one that is not based solely on doctrine, but instead addresses a balance between humans and nature, as well as a balance between markets and the state, and the short versus long term. To do this we need to leave behind working in ”silos” in favor of a more systemic approach that will require us to rethink the organization of science and education. However, we have to act now; the world cannot wait until 7.6 billion people have struggled to reach a new enlightenment. This book is full of optimistic case studies and policy proposals that will lead us back to a trajectory of sustainability. But it is also necessary to address the taboo topic of population increase. Countries with a stable population fare immensely better than those with continued increase. Finally, we are presenting an optimistic book from the Club of Rome.

The journal of population and sustainability 1(2) s. 11-22

Futuribili: Rivista di studi sul futuro e di previsione sociale 22(1) Doi: https://doi.org/10.13137/1971-0720/15729

Dagens næringsliv

Energi, teknologi og klima - utfordringer og handlingsrom s. 13-24

Fole 2 s. 2-5

Disrupting the Future: Great Ideas for Creating a Much better World s. 61-67

The colours of energy: Essays on the future of our energy system s. 56-60

Morgenbladet

BIs Senter for Klimastrategi

BIs Senter for Klimastrategi

3rd Low Carbon Earh Summit - 2013

Ulike konferanser og møter

International System Dynamics Conference 2013

SNU: brev til klimagenerasjonen s. 23-25

Ulike konferanser og møter

CICERO Senter for Klimaforskning

How can we evaluate whether national climate policies are sufficient? Which moral principles should be the basis of our policy efforts? The answers to these questions are central to the development of any climate policy framework, but not always made explicit in daily political discourse. In this article we seek to redress this imbalance through a survey of popular opinion in Norway.

Handelshøyskolen BI

Handelshøyskolen BI

Handelshøyskolen BI

Handelshøyskolen BI

Handelshøyskolen BI

Handelshøyskolen BI

BIs Senter for Klimastrategi, EBL og SINTEF Energiforskning

Handelshøyskolen BI

Økonomiske analyser 5 s. 4-16

Michael Quarterly 2(2) s. 151-159

WWF-Norge

Earthscan

WWF International

World Busines Council for Sustainable Development

WWF International

Bærekraftig utvikling - Økoeffektivitet og industriell utvikling