Jorgen Randers (born 1945) is professor emeritus of climate strategy at the BI Norwegian Business School. He works on issues of the future, especially related to sustainability, climate, energy, and system dynamics. Professor Randers lectures and provides advice all over the world, and increasingly in China.
Jorgen Randers has spent one third of his life in academia, one third in business, and on third in the NGO world. He was President of the BI Norwegian Business School BI 1981 – 89, and Deputy Director General of WWF International (World Wide Fund for Nature) in Switzerland 1994 – 99. In 2005-6 he chaired the Royal Commission that presented a plan for how Norway can cut is climate gas emissions by two thirds by 2050. He has been member of the sustainability council of three multinationals (BT, Dow and Astra-Zeneca).
He has written a number of books and scientific papers, starting with co-authoring The Limits to Growth in 1972. His recent writings include 2052 – A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years in 2012, Reinventing Prosperity with Graeme Maxton in 2016, and Transformation is feasible! with Johan Rockstrøm et al in 2018.
He has received many prizes and awards. He is a full member of the Club of Rome and is the founding chair of the China Chapter of the Club of Rome.
The global energy transition from fossil to low-carbon energy challenges the future of the Norwegian petroleum sector, a major factor in the country's economy, now facing financial climate risk and long-term declining demand, particularly for gas to the EU. What energy policies can assist transition into a low-carbon society? We explore three investment scenarios for the Norwegian offshore energy sector from 2020 to 2070: 1) Business as usual, 2) Increasing cash-flow by harvesting existing petroleum fields and cutting investments (Harvest-and-Exit), or 3) Rebuilding with green offshore energy investments. In a new economic model, we compare impacts on key macro- and sector-economic variables. We find that rebuilding by investing moderately in green offshore energy production could reverse the extra job decline that a quicker phase-out of petroleum investments would incur. The impacts on the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund - Government Pension Fund Global - and on gross domestic product (GDP) per capita are insignificant to 2050 and positive by 2070. The simulated investments and economic results can be compared with observations to constitute forward-looking indicators for energy transitioning in producer countries.
Collste, David; Cornell, Sarah E., Randers, Jørgen, Rockström, Johan & Stoknes, Per Espen (2021)
Human well-being in the Anthropocene: Limits to growth
Transformation of the world towards sustainability in line with the 2030 Agenda requires progress on multiple dimensions of human well-being. We track development of relevant indicators for Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 1–7 against gross domestic product (GDP) per person in seven world regions and the world as a whole. Across the regions, we find uniform development patterns where SDGs 1–7 – and therefore main human needs – are achieved at around US$15,000 measured in 2011 US$ purchasing power parity (PPP).
Randers, Jørgen & Golüke, Ulrich (2020)
An earth system model shows self-sustained melting of permafrost even if all man-made GHG emissions stop in 2020
The risk of points-of-no-return, which, once surpassed lock the world into new dynamics, have been discussed for decades. Recently, there have been warnings that some of these tipping points are coming closer and are too dangerous to be disregarded. In this paper we report that in the ESCIMO climate model the world is already past a point-of-no-return for global warming. In ESCIMO we observe self-sustained thawing of the permafrost for hundreds of years, even if global society stops all emissions of man-made GHGs immediately. We encourage other model builders to explore our discovery in their (bigger) models, and report on their findings. The thawing (in ESCIMO) is the result of a continuing self-sustained rise in the global temperature. This warming is the combined effect of three physical processes: (1) declining surface albedo (driven by melting of the Arctic ice cover), (2) increasing amounts of water vapour in the atmosphere (driven by higher temperatures), and (3) changes in the concentrations of the GHG in the atmosphere (driven by the absorption of CO2 in biomass and oceans, and emission of carbon (CH4 and CO2) from thawing permafrost). This self-sustained, in the sense of no further GHG emissions, thawing process (in ESCIMO) is a causally determined, physical process that evolves over time. It starts with the man-made warming up to the 1950s, leading to a rise in the amount of water vapour in the atmosphere—further lifting the temperature, causing increasing release of carbon from thawing permafrost, and simultaneously a decline in the surface albedo as the ice and snow covers melts. To stop the self-sustained warming in ESCIMO, enormous amounts of CO2 have to be extracted from the atmosphere.
Randers, Jørgen; Rockström, Johan, Stoknes, Per Espen, Golüke, Ulrich, Collste, David, Cornell, Sarah E. & Donges, Jonathan F. (2019)
Achieving the 17 Sustainable Development Goals within 9 planetary boundaries
The world agreed to achieve 17 Sustainable Development Goals by 2030. Nine planetary boundaries set an upper limit to Earth system impacts of human activity in the long run. Conventional efforts to achieve the 14 socio-economic goals will raise pressure on planetary boundaries, moving the world away from the three environmental SDGs. We have created a simple model, Earth3, to measure how much environmental damage follows from achievement of the 14 socio-economic goals, and we propose an index to track effects on people's wellbeing. Extraordinary efforts will be needed to achieve all SDGs within planetary boundaries.
Randers, Jørgen (2019)
The great challenge for system dynamics on the path forwards: Implementation and real impact
System Dynamics Review, 35(1) , s. 19-24.
Weizsäcker, Ernst U. von; Wijkman, Anders & Randers, Jørgen (2017)
Come on! Capitalism, short-termism, population and the destruction of the planet: A report to the club of Rome
Springer
Current worldwide trends are not sustainable. The Club of Rome’s warnings published in the book Limits to Growth are still valid. Remedies that are acceptable for the great majority tend to make things worse. We seem to be in a philosophical crisis. Pope Francis says it clearly: our common home is in deadly danger. Analyzing the philosophical crisis, the book comes to the conclusion that the world may need a “new enlightenment”; one that is not based solely on doctrine, but instead addresses a balance between humans and nature, as well as a balance between markets and the state, and the short versus long term. To do this we need to leave behind working in ”silos” in favor of a more systemic approach that will require us to rethink the organization of science and education.
However, we have to act now; the world cannot wait until 7.6 billion people have struggled to reach a new enlightenment.
This book is full of optimistic case studies and policy proposals that will lead us back to a trajectory of sustainability. But it is also necessary to address the taboo topic of population increase. Countries with a stable population fare immensely better than those with continued increase.
Finally, we are presenting an optimistic book from the Club of Rome.
Randers, Jørgen (2016)
How Fast Will China Grow Towards 2030? And what about the US?
World Economics, 17(2) , s. 63-78.
Randers, Jørgen; Göluke, Ulrich, Wenstøp, Fred & Wenstøp, Søren (2016)
A user-friendly earth system model of low complexity: the ESCIMO system dynamics model of global warming towards 2100
We have made a simple system dynamics model, ESCIMO (Earth System Climate Interpretable Model), which runs on a desktop computer in seconds and is able to reproduce the main output from more complex climate models. ESCIMO represents the main causal mechanisms at work in the Earth system and is able to reproduce the broad outline of climate history from 1850 to 2015. We have run many simulations with ESCIMO to 2100 and beyond. In this paper we present the effects of introducing in 2015 six possible global policy interventions that cost around USD 1000 billion per year – around 1 % of world GDP. We tentatively conclude (a) that these policy interventions can at most reduce the global mean surface temperature – GMST – by up to 0.5 °C in 2050 and up to 1.0 °C in 2100 relative to no intervention. The exception is injection of aerosols into the stratosphere, which can reduce the GMST by more than 1.0 °C in a decade but creates other serious problems. We also conclude (b) that relatively cheap human intervention can keep global warming in this century below +2 °C relative to preindustrial times. Finally, we conclude (c) that run-away warming is unlikely to occur in this century but is likely to occur in the longer run. The ensuing warming is slow, however. In ESCIMO, it takes several hundred years to lift the GMST to +3 °C above preindustrial times through gradual self-reinforcing melting of the permafrost.
Randers, Jørgen & Maxton, Graeme (2016)
Ein prozent ist genug. Mit wenig wachstum soziale ungleichheit, arbeitslosigkeit und klimawandel bekämpfen
oekom verlag
Randers, Jørgen (2015)
Demokratin har svärt att hantera klimathotet
Extrakt,
Randers, Jørgen (2014)
2052 - A global forecast for the next forty years. Can growth continue?
World Nutrition Forum Sustain:ability, , s. 17-27.
Randers, Jørgen (2014)
A realistic leverage point for one-planet living: More compulsory vacation in the rich world
The global energy transition from fossil to low-carbon energy challenges the future of the Norwegian
petroleum sector, a major factor in the country’s economy, now facing financial climate risk and longterm declining demand, particularly for gas to the EU. What energy policies can assist the transition into a low-carbon society? We explore three investment scenarios for the Norwegian offshore energy sector from 2020 to 2070: 1) Business as usual, 2) Increasing cash-flow by harvesting existing
petroleum fields and cutting investments (Harvest-and-Exit), or 3) Rebuilding with green offshore energy investments. In a new economic model, we compare impacts on key macro- and sectoreconomic variables. We find that investing moderately in green offshore energy production can reverse the extra job decline that a quicker phase-out of petroleum investments would incur. The impacts on the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund - Government Pension Fund Global - and on gross domestic product (GDP) per capita are insignificant to 2050 and positive by 2070. The simulated
investments and economic results can be compared with observations to constitute forward-looking
indicators of Norway's energy transitioning.
Randers, Jørgen (2019)
The Green Transition of China to 2050
[Lecture]. Event
Randers, Jørgen (2019)
The world to 2050 - The role of Japan, China and the US
[Lecture]. Event
Randers, Jørgen (2019)
A profitable future for China Light and Power
[Lecture]. Event
Randers, Jørgen (2019)
Grønn vekst i Norge mot 2050
[Popular Science Article]. Magma forskning og viten, 22(5) , s. 17-24. - Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
Det er ikke én som må gjøre alt. Alle må gjøre litt.
Individuelle initiativ er ikke nok. Her kreves kollektiv respons.
Her er det ikke nok å gjøre sitt beste. Her må man gjøre det som trengs.
Stoknes, Per Espen; Jørgen, Randers, Rockström, Johan, Randers, Jørgen, Golüke, Ulrich, Collste, David & Cornell, Sarah E. (2018)
Transformation is Feasible - How to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals within Planetary Boundaries
[Report Research]. Stockholm Resilience Center
If the world’s nations continue with the same efforts as in the recent decades we will not achieve SDGs by 2030, nor 2050. By 2030, in the business-as-usual scenario, the world’s success score on SDGs will be only 10 out of 17, up from 9 in 2015. The main problems are that satisfying the social SDGs with conventional policy tools will lead to very large human footprints in terms of resource use and pollution outputs, and to increasing inequity. The state of the Earth’s planetary boundaries (PBs) will be further in the red, high-risk zone particularly with regards to global warming, biodiversity loss, air pollution and toxic entities in nature. There is high risk for pushing the Earth’s life supporting systems beyond irreversible trigger-points by 2050.
